market trends...well as an increase in boomerang buyers (buyers who previously defaulted on a...

Market Trends

Southwest Florida Collier, Lee & Charlotte Counties

4th Quarter 2017

Prepared by Doug Meschko, Market Research Director

More Than Just Dirt.

© 2017 Land Solutions, Inc. All Rights Reserved

www.landsolutions.net | [email protected] | 239.489.4066

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Contents

Table of Contents

Executive Summary 4 Socioeconomic Overview 5 Population 5

Airport Traffic 8 Age Distribution 11 School Enrollments 13 FGCU Enrollment 15 Household Income 16 Employment 23 Migration 28 Housing Overview Collier County Permits 32 Lee County Permits 39 Charlotte County Permits 55 Total Combined Permits 59 MLS Sales Trends 60 SF Vacant Developed Detached Lots (Subdivisions) 64 Cape Coral and Lehigh Acres Lot Sales Trends 66 Notable Transactions 69 Construction Material Costs 72

General Limiting Conditions 73





4

Executive Summary

New home permit issuance for the three-county area (Collier, Lee & Charlotte) in 2017 reached its highest level since 2006 with permits up 27.9% year-over-year. Looking at only the fourth quarter of 2017, we saw an increase of 21.8% over the same period from the previous year. There were two noticeable trends that contributed to the increase in new housing units permitted in 2017. The first was a wave of new apartment and assisted living communities that broke ground, bringing a large number of units to the market. 2017 experienced a significant wave of development for new apartment and assisted living communities similar to what we experienced in 2015. The second trend was the increase in demand and development of value-oriented housing in the more affordable areas such as Cape Coral, Golden Gate Estates, Lehigh Acres, and Charlotte County as a whole. These areas are where the bulk of primary home demand is in today’s market. Home prices also reached levels not seen since 2007. Pricing; however, seems to have plateaued and is likely to drift sideways in 2018. Hurricane Irma also continues to have an effect on the homebuilding industry and the economy as a whole in Southwest Florida. Considerable resources have been diverted to recovery efforts causing unexpected increases in the cost of labor and materials. These effects will likely be felt through most of 2018. As we here at Land Solutions prepare to move forward, our forecast for the next 12 months calls for new residential unit permit issuance to be slightly negative (-13% to -9%), primarily due to an expected decline in rental units, and for home prices to be relatively flat (-3% to 2%) overall. Current home prices in Lee and Charlotte Counties are nearing their peak figures experienced in Q3 2006 – Q2 2007, while prices in Collier County are still roughly 15% below what was experienced back then. Primary home demand from full time residents will likely remain strong in the more affordable areas such as Cape Coral, Golden Gate Estates, Lehigh Acres and Charlotte County as a whole. Baby Boomer retirees will also continue to fuel demand for new housing. Fear of rising interest rates as well as an increase in boomerang buyers (buyers who previously defaulted on a mortgage) will likely be the catalysts driving demand throughout 2018. After seven years, most negative inputs on an individual’s credit report lapse; thus, allowing them more economic freedom to obtain a mortgage. This would apply to individuals who had defaults prior to the first quarter of 2011.





5

Socioeconomic Conditions

Population Southwest Florida continues to be one of the fastest growing areas in the nation. Growth is attributed to in-migration, mostly from Northeastern and Midwestern states; however, foreign migration and intrastate migration are also significant factors for growth. U.S. Census Population Estimates, updated on March 23, 2017, showing the recent growth can be seen in the following graph. The data highlights population estimates as of July 1st each year through 2016. It shows Southwest Florida continuing to experience significant gains in population with a 2.92% gain (or 35,888 people) in 2016 over 2015 for Collier, Lee, and Charlotte Counties combined. If you divide the population gain (35,888) by the average household size in Southwest Florida (2.54), we get the number of new residential units (14,129) needed to support our current annual level of population growth (35,888). There were 13,603 new residential units permitted in Southwest Florida over the past 12 months (January 1, 2017 - December, 31 2017).

254,080275,490

296,021312,621 316,641 321,520

332,332339,244

347,899356,570

365,136

443,903

478,889

522,431

582,678

610,984 618,754

644,096660,085

678,048

700,285722,336

142,229 150,123 157,755 157,099 160,467 159,978162,937 168,595

173,194 178,465

125,000

175,000

225,000

275,000

325,000

375,000

425,000

475,000

525,000

575,000

625,000

675,000

725,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Collier, Lee, & Charlotte Populations

Collier Lee CharlotteSource: US Census





6

The University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) released their updated population projections through 2045 on January 31, 2018, which can be seen below for each county. Lee County’s population is expected to grow 46.7% from 2016 (U.S. Census) to 2045 (BEBR), which is the second highest percentage gain for any county in the state of Florida with a current population of 350,000 residents or more. Only Orange County has a higher projected percentage increase.

Collier County’s population is expected to grow 41.6% from 2016 to 2045, which is the fourth highest percentage gain for any Florida county with at least 350,000 current residents; trailing Orange, Lee, and Manatee Counties. As of July 1, 2016, there were 16 counties in Florida with at least 350,000 residents, according to the U.S. Census figures.





7

Population growth from migration can be seen in the following chart broken out into foreign and domestic migration into Collier, Lee, and Charlotte Counties combined. Total migration turned slightly negative in 2009, but has since rebounded nicely. This data comes from the U.S. Census and represents figures as of July 1st of each year.

Future growth in Southwest Florida will be due largely to record numbers of Baby Boomers retiring and migrating south. Southwest Florida has and will continue to appeal greatly to affluent Baby Boomers who are looking for sun, beaches, boating, and championship golf. Foreign migration is also expected to grow to record levels in Southwest Florida over the coming years, which will be aided by an increase in international flights at Southwest Florida International Airport.

1,296

4,783 4,668 4,208 3,992 4,289 4,423 4,022 3,942 3,951

1,189

4,797

4,539

4,656

5,267

5,532

5,5075,250

24,29525,606

23,195

34,23933,220

25,490

16,791

522

-4,695

2,224

9,418

17,647

21,73322,994

33,903

28,861

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Collier, Lee & Charlotte Total Migration

Foreign DomesticSource: US Census





8

Airport Traffic Growth in passenger air traffic usually portends population growth. Passenger traffic figures at Southwest Florida International Airport (RSW) concur with that notion, as seen in the following graph. Passenger traffic has increased 65.2% between 2000 – 2016 while the population increased 50.7% over the same time period for the three-county area.

Passenger traffic at RSW increased an additional 2.76% in 2017 over figures from 2016. Passenger traffic at RSW set another record in 2017 for annual traffic and monthly traffic reached new record highs in each month of the 4th quarter. As RSW’s single runway approaches critical mass nearing nine million passengers, the need for an additional runway is triggered. Plans for a second runway and terminal expansion are currently in the design phase. Solicits for construction bids are expected to go out in mid-to-late 2019 with construction to start soon after.





9

Charlotte County Airport (PGD) has been able to attract and maintain a regional carrier over the past seven years, which has led to significant growth in passenger air traffic for Charlotte County. Currently, the only carrier at the Charlotte County Airport is Allegiant Air with services to 40 U.S. cities in the Midwest, Northeast, and Southeast. Passenger traffic for the airport over the past 12 months was 1,293,337. To put those figures into perspective, the Sarasota/Bradenton International Airport saw 1,181,332 passengers over the past twelve months. The chart below highlights the converging trend of the two airports.

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

1,100,000

1,200,000

1,300,000

1,400,000

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

To

tal P

as

sen

ge

rs

Passenger Air Traffic Charlotte County Airport (PGD) -v- Sarasota/Bradenton Airport (SRQ)

Charlotte (PGD) Sarasota/Bradenton (SRQ)Source: Sarasota-Manatee & Charlotte County Airport Authorities





10

Looking at 2017, the Charlotte County Airport experienced a 15.65% increase in passenger traffic over figures from 2016. Charlotte County Airport will be a major economic driver in the future, which is likely to present opportunities for homebuilders, developers and the like.

The other two major airports on Florida’s Gulf Coast, Sarasota/Bradenton Airport and Tampa International Airport, saw a 0.43% decrease and 3.66% increase respectively in passenger traffic for 2017 over figures from 2016.





11

Age Distribution Due to a large number of Baby Boomers coupled with a declining birth rate, the U.S. population is getting older. Data from the U.S. Census 2016 ACS (American Community Survey) supports this notion in Southwest Florida. The table below shows the population changes by age groupings. Data for the U.S. Census 2016 ACS was released in September 2017.

According to the U.S. Census, 44.4% of the combined population of Collier, Lee, and Charlotte is 55 or older.

ACS ACS ACS ACS ACS ACS ACS ACS ACS ACS ACS ACS

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

0-19 216,725 21.8% 221,550 230,358 230,673 228,204 230,837 231,331 232,057 232,460 237,919 238,338 243,655 19.2%

20-34 166,620 16.7% 182,699 180,314 178,585 160,759 163,319 170,620 170,637 175,207 177,522 184,472 187,086 14.8%

35-44 122,122 12.3% 129,543 131,583 124,773 118,262 121,159 116,067 120,292 119,714 120,852 122,657 124,130 9.8%

45-54 123,570 12.4% 128,142 132,488 134,082 138,417 143,543 142,004 143,718 145,271 146,363 149,064 149,221 11.8%

55-64 123,676 12.4% 126,574 127,627 125,930 143,481 157,802 161,130 159,991 164,113 170,233 174,930 181,480 14.3%

65-74 124,838 12.5% 119,811 119,342 122,369 136,768 157,506 162,058 172,584 181,001 189,100 199,868 210,590 16.6%

75-84 94,558 9.5% 102,160 105,124 108,392 98,085 90,488 97,778 98,990 106,599 113,837 117,061 120,584 9.5%

85+ 24,218 2.4% 29,952 32,381 33,650 38,421 37,959 38,987 41,900 41,128 40,938 46,012 49,191 3.9%

Total 996,327 100.0% 1,040,431 1,059,217 1,058,454 1,062,397 1,102,613 1,119,975 1,140,169 1,165,493 1,196,764 1,232,402 1,265,937 100%

Change % Change

0-19 4,825 8,808 315 (2,469) 2,633 1,117 726 403 5,459 419 5,317 2.23%

20-34 16,079 (2,385) (1,729) (17,826) 2,560 6,692 17 4,570 2,315 6,950 2,614 1.42%

35-44 7,421 2,040 (6,810) (6,511) 2,897 (4,061) 4,225 (578) 1,138 1,805 1,473 1.20%

45-54 4,572 4,346 1,594 4,335 5,126 (1,814) 1,714 1,553 1,092 2,701 157 0.11%

55-64 2,898 1,053 (1,697) 17,551 14,321 3,622 (1,139) 4,122 6,120 4,697 6,550 3.74%

65-74 -5,027 (469) 3,027 14,399 20,738 6,049 10,526 8,417 8,099 10,768 10,722 5.36%

75-84 7,602 2,964 3,268 (10,307) (7,597) 2,009 1,212 7,609 7,238 3,224 3,523 3.01%

85+ 5,734 2,429 1,269 4,771 (462) 6,109 2,913 (772) (190) 5,074 3,179 6.91%

Total 44,104 18,786 (763) 3,943 40,216 19,723 20,194 25,324 31,271 35,638 33,535 2.72%

Source: US Census / American Community Survey

% of Total

Collier, Lee, & Charlotte Population by Age

% of

Total

Overall Change

0-19 26,930 12.43%

20-34 20,466 12.28%

35-44 2,008 1.64%

45-54 25,651 20.76%

55-64 57,804 46.74%

65-74 85,752 68.69%

75-84 26,026 27.52%

85+ 24,973 103.12%

Total 269,610 27.06%

2005 - 2016





12

Further BEBR projections of people 55 and older, released on June 30, 2017, indicate a population increase of 58.5% by 2045 over 2016 data for Collier, Lee, and Charlotte Counties combined.

The aging population almost certainly ensures an increase in housing demand from older, more affluent empty nesters and retirees in Southwest Florida moving forward.

175,053

196,696 202,123191,330

188,124

202,425

226,915246,151

273,927

308,560

343,469

364,794 362,351 347,365

85,40198,062

122,164

146,984

168,183

198,460

228,575

75,000

100,000

125,000

150,000

175,000

200,000

225,000

250,000

275,000

300,000

325,000

350,000

375,000

400,000

2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Collier, Lee & Charlotte Population Projections Age 55+

55-64 65-79 80+Source: BEBR





13

School Enrollments Southwest Florida school enrollments overall declined in the 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 school years. As a result of the 2004-2007 run-up in real estate prices, many young families opted for less expensive areas to raise their families. Families continued to exit the market when unemployment began to spike in 2008 due to the economic downturn. Enrollment figures; however, from the past nine school years showed a reversing trend to positive growth in Lee and Collier Counties, while Charlotte County enrollment continued to decline. The decline in Charlotte County seems to have finally started to flatten. This leads us to believe the prevailing trend is about to reverse course in the years ahead. Enrollment growth is indicative of an improving job market in Southwest Florida. Enrollment trends are depicted in the following graphs.

Collier may start to experience a plateauing of student enrollment over the next few years due to increasing home affordability issues for families.

40,144

41,941

43,29543,164

42,70942,530

42,71442,919

43,247

43,790

44,414

45,228

45,994

46,407

46,832

40,000

40,500

41,000

41,500

42,000

42,500

43,000

43,500

44,000

44,500

45,000

45,500

46,000

46,500

47,000

2003

-04

2004

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2005

-06

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2007

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2009

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2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

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2013

-14

2014

-15

2015

-16

2016

-17

2017

-18

Collier School Enrollment

Collier School EnrollmentSource: Florida Dept. of Education





14

66,429

70,843

75,579

78,980

80,54179,451

80,470

81,965

83,896

85,783

87,428

89,364

91,309

92,682

93,221

65,000

67,500

70,000

72,500

75,000

77,500

80,000

82,500

85,000

87,500

90,000

92,500

95,000

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

2014

-15

2015

-16

2016

-17

2017

-18

Lee School Enrollment

Lee School EnrollmentSource: Florida Dept. of Education

18,263

17,402

17,868 17,88817,798

17,361

16,935

16,640

16,41316,352

16,26316,135 16,061

15,925 15,901

15,750

16,000

16,250

16,500

16,750

17,000

17,250

17,500

17,750

18,000

18,250

18,500

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

2014

-15

2015

-16

2016

-17

2017

-18

Charlotte School Enrollment

Charlotte School EnrollmentSource: Florida Dept. of Education





15

Florida Gulf Coast University Florida Gulf Coast University (FGCU) has become a large regional university and economic driver for the Southwest Florida area. The university is located in southern Lee County on Ben Hill Griffin Parkway. The university has added an average of 565 students per year over the past decade. University officials project enrollment to be near 18,000 by the 2020-2021 school year.

Growth of FGCU contributes to the overall population growth of Southwest Florida and is a big economic driver for the area. A December 2013 study by a FGCU professor found the university's impact on the Southwest Florida economy for the 2012-13 academic year was approximately $422 million in overall expenditures, $154 million in labor income, and is responsible for 3,723 jobs.

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

Florida Gulf Coast University Enrollment

Undergraduate Graduate Non-degreeSource: FGCU





16

Household Income The following graphs indicate median and mean income levels for each county according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2016 ACS (American Community Survey). Data for the U.S. Census 2016 ACS was released in September 2017.

$52,179

$55,888

$57,653

$61,165

$52,988 $52,730

$50,564

$54,126 $54,406

$58,026

$62,126

$61,228

$46,053

$48,553

$50,699 $50,747

$45,353

$43,936

$45,266

$46,278 $46,383

$49,055

$50,651

$52,909

$39,091

$44,166

$46,707 $46,404

$40,362

$42,031

$41,190

$45,247 $43,698

$43,039

$45,492

$44,200

$38,000

$40,000

$42,000

$44,000

$46,000

$48,000

$50,000

$52,000

$54,000

$56,000

$58,000

$60,000

$62,000

$64,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Collier, Lee, & Charlotte Median Household Incomes

Collier Lee CharlotteSource: US Census ACS





17

$79,629

$85,326

$92,436

$97,881

$85,131

$82,016

$86,372

$88,799 $89,719

$95,772

$101,833 $102,009

$65,632 $67,383

$71,415 $70,761

$64,509

$61,562

$63,697 $64,904

$66,957 $67,172

$70,064

$74,125

$52,398

$56,958 $56,711

$60,234

$53,047 $52,405

$63,141

$55,576

$57,263 $57,316

$62,168

$65,643

$50,000

$55,000

$60,000

$65,000

$70,000

$75,000

$80,000

$85,000

$90,000

$95,000

$100,000

$105,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Collier, Lee, & Charlotte Mean Household Incomes

Collier Lee CharlotteSource: US Census ACS





18

The following affordability chart estimates the required household income needed to purchase a home with a 10% down payment.

Home PriceDown

Payment 1 Mortgage

Mortgage

Rate

Property

Tax 2

Annual

Property

Insurance 3

Monthly

Payment 4

Annual

Mortgage

Payment

Required

Household

Income 5

$140,000 $14,000 $126,000 4.25% $1,140 $1,400 $831.51 $9,978.13 $33,260

$160,000 $16,000 $144,000 4.25% $1,410 $1,600 $959.23 $11,510.72 $38,369

$180,000 $18,000 $162,000 4.25% $1,680 $1,800 $1,086.94 $13,043.31 $43,478

$200,000 $20,000 $180,000 4.25% $1,950 $2,000 $1,214.66 $14,575.90 $48,586

$220,000 $22,000 $198,000 4.25% $2,220 $2,200 $1,342.37 $16,108.49 $53,695

$240,000 $24,000 $216,000 4.25% $2,490 $2,400 $1,470.09 $17,641.08 $58,804

$260,000 $26,000 $234,000 4.25% $2,760 $2,600 $1,597.81 $19,173.67 $63,912

$280,000 $28,000 $252,000 4.25% $3,030 $2,800 $1,725.52 $20,706.26 $69,021

$300,000 $30,000 $270,000 4.25% $3,300 $3,000 $1,853.24 $22,238.85 $74,130

$320,000 $32,000 $288,000 4.25% $3,570 $3,200 $1,980.95 $23,771.44 $79,238

$340,000 $34,000 $306,000 4.25% $3,840 $3,400 $2,108.67 $25,304.03 $84,347

$360,000 $36,000 $324,000 4.25% $4,110 $3,600 $2,236.39 $26,836.62 $89,455

$380,000 $38,000 $342,000 4.25% $4,380 $3,800 $2,364.10 $28,369.21 $94,564

$400,000 $40,000 $360,000 4.25% $4,650 $4,000 $2,491.82 $29,901.80 $99,673

$420,000 $42,000 $378,000 4.25% $4,920 $4,200 $2,619.53 $31,434.39 $104,781

$440,000 $44,000 $396,000 4.25% $5,190 $4,400 $2,747.25 $32,966.98 $109,890

$460,000 $46,000 $414,000 4.25% $5,460 $4,600 $2,874.96 $34,499.57 $114,999

$480,000 $48,000 $432,000 4.25% $5,730 $4,800 $3,002.68 $36,032.16 $120,107

$500,000 $50,000 $450,000 4.25% $6,000 $5,000 $3,130.40 $37,564.75 $125,2161 - Assuming Down Payment of 10% of Home Price2 - Estimated at 1.5% of 90% of home value less $50k homestead deduction3 - Estimated at 1% of Home Price4 - Includes all costs, made into monthly payments5 - Based on 30% rule of thumb





19

The following chart highlights changes in purchasing power, relative to mortgage rates, for residents earning the median wage in each county.





20

$273,727

$267,853

$262,136

$256,574

$251,164

$245,902

$240,787

$235,814

$230,981

$220,000

$225,000

$230,000

$235,000

$240,000

$245,000

$250,000

$255,000

$260,000

$265,000

$270,000

$275,000

$280,000

3.50% 3.75% 4.00% 4.25% 4.50% 4.75% 5.00% 5.25% 5.50%

Collier County Home Affordability forMedian Income Household ($61,228)

Mortgage Rate





21

$230,881

$226,108

$221,456

$216,923

$212,507

$208,206

$204,018

$199,941

$195,973

$180,000

$185,000

$190,000

$195,000

$200,000

$205,000

$210,000

$215,000

$220,000

$225,000

$230,000

$235,000

$240,000

3.50% 3.75% 4.00% 4.25% 4.50% 4.75% 5.00% 5.25% 5.50%

Lee County Home Affordability forMedian Income Household ($52,909)

Mortgage Rate





22

The table below indicates the percentage of households in each county making $50,000, $75,000, and $100,000 or more. These segments are particularly important to new housing demand because they are the segments that can typically afford new homes.

$196,352

$192,243

$188,239

$184,340

$180,544

$176,848

$173,251

$169,751

$166,347

$155,000

$160,000

$165,000

$170,000

$175,000

$180,000

$185,000

$190,000

$195,000

$200,000

$205,000

3.50% 3.75% 4.00% 4.25% 4.50% 4.75% 5.00% 5.25% 5.50%

Charlotte County Home Affordability forMedian Income Household ($44,200)

Mortgage Rate

Collier Lee Charlotte Florida U.S. Manatee Sarasota

Households making

$50,000 or more 60.8% 53.4% 43.9% 51.0% 56.3% 51.7% 54.9%

Households making

$75,000 or more 41.4% 32.7% 26.2% 32.5% 38.6% 33.0% 36.2%

Households making

$100,000 or more 28.6% 20.6% 14.8% 20.8% 26.2% 22.5% 24.7%

Source: US Census 2016 ACS





23

Employment The graphs in this following section depict current and historical employment conditions at the county, state, and national levels. Note the strong seasonality in Collier County’s unemployment rate. As of December 2017, Collier’s unemployment stood at 3.6%, which was down from 3.9% a month earlier and down from 4.5% in December 2016. It is important to note that recent employment figures for Collier County show more people employed in the county than any time in its history.

3.6%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%

14.0%

105,000

110,000

115,000

120,000

125,000

130,000

135,000

140,000

145,000

150,000

155,000

160,000

165,000

170,000

175,000

Jun

-00

Dec

-00

Jun

-01

Dec

-01

Jun

-02

Dec

-02

Jun

-03

Dec

-03

Jun

-04

Dec

-04

Jun

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Dec

-05

Jun

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Dec

-06

Jun

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Dec

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Jun

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Dec

-08

Jun

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Dec

-09

Jun

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Collier County Unemployment

Unemployed Employed Unemployment RateSource: US Bureau of Labor Statistics





24

As of December 2017, Lee County was experiencing an unemployment rate of 3.4%, which was down from 3.6% a month earlier and down from 4.4% in December 2016. Lee County has less seasonal irregularity than Collier County and may be more relevant to the overall job market in Southwest Florida, which affects the primary housing demand in Southwest Florida. It is also important to note that recent employment figures for Lee County show more people employed in the county than any time in its history.

3.4%

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Lee County Unemployment






25

As of December 2017, Charlotte County was experiencing an unemployment rate of 3.8%, which was down from 4.0% a month earlier and down from 5.0% in December 2016.

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Charlotte County Unemployment






26

Largest (Non-Governmental) Employers in Southwest Florida

Rank Company Name 2015

EmploymentRank Company Name

2015

Employment

1 Lee Memorial Health System 10,900 43 Bentley Village A Classic 500

2 NCH Naples Hospitals 7,000 44 Children & Families Dept. 500

3 Publix Super Markets 6,968 45 Classic Residence Management Inc 500

4 Charlotte Regional Medical Center 3,950 46 Gulf Bay Group Of Companies 500

5 Walmart Supercenter 3,792 47 Plantation Botanicals Inc 500

6 Winn-Dixie 3,348 48 Raymond Building Supply 500

7 Palm Automotive 2,656 49 Winzer Co. 500

8 Home Depot 1,920 50 Fifth Third Bank 500

9 US Sugar 1,726 51 Vi at Bentley Village 470

10 Chico’s Fas Inc. 1,600 52 Hyatt Regency-Coconut Point 450

11 Arthrex, Inc. 1,400 53 WCI Communities 450

12 St Joseph Preferred Healthcare Inc 1,400 54 CenturyLink 446

13 Florida Gulf Coast University 1,253 55 Artis-Naples 423

14 Lowe’s Home Improvement 1,100 56 Gulf Coast Village 417

15 Ritz Carlton – Naples 1,100 57 Naples Italian American Club 417

16 Sallyport Global, LLC – Michael Baker 1,100 58 Florida Cancer Specialists 400

17 Country Club of Naples Inc. 1,050 59 Germain Arena 400

18 Target 1,040 60 John R Woods Realtors 400

19 Shell Point Retirement Communities 1,020 61 Naples Beach Hotel and Golf Club 400

20 ACI Worldwide 1,001 62 Radiology Regional Center 400

21 A Duda & Sons 995 63 Schear, Corp. 400

22 Comcast 994 64 South Port Square 400

23 Seminole Casino 875 65 South Seas Island Resort 400

24 Bealls 873 66 Dillards, Inc. 400

25 Goodwill of SWFL 821 67 Lee County Electric Co-op 386

26 Fawcett Memorial Hospital 780 68 Bonita Bay Club 380

27 Marriott-Marco Island Beach 775 69 Finnegan Team 375

28 Moorings Park 754 70 Hodges University 375

29 Robb & Stucky Limited LLP 750 71 Manheim Southwest Florida Auto 375

30 Gartner, Inc. 741 72 Park Royal Hospital 375

31 Naples Grande Beach Resort 700 73 Costco 375

32 Marriott-Sanibel Harbour Resort 680 74 AGS Software Solutions 370

33 Punta Gorda HMA, Inc. 680 75 Florida Power & Light 369

34 Downing Frye Realty 675 76 Moog, Inc. 367

35 Florida Southwestern State College 653 77 AA Stucco & Drywall, Inc. 350

36 Alorica 620 78 Cape Coral Charter School Authority 350

37 Physicians Regional Medical Center 600 79 D & K Harvesting 350

38 American Golf Association 600 80 G4S Secure Solutions 350

39 Christian & Missionary Foundation, Inc. 550 81 Lynx Services, L.L.C. 350

40 Veterans Health Administration (2014) 528 82 News-Press, The Publisher 350

41 Coastalscents.Com 501 83 The Waldorf Astoria Collection 350

42 Agmart Produce Inc. 500

Source: SWFL Economic Development Al l iance





27

The Southwest Florida economy is heavily tied to the residential construction and service industries. There have been noticeable improvements in those industries over the past few years that have done a great deal to increase job growth in Southwest Florida. State and national unemployment figures sat at 3.7% and 4.1%, respectively, for December 2017. These figures are expected to remain near current levels over the next 12 months.

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Florida & National Unemployment

Florida Unemployment Rate National Unemployment RateSource: US Bureau of Labor StatisticsSource: US Bureau of Labor Statistics





28

Migration The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) provides annual migration data based on the addresses from annual tax returns received and compared year over year. IRS migration data captures roughly 80% of all United States residents, but excludes those lower income residents who do not need to file a return. While it does not capture all migration, it does represent data regarding migrants who have the ability to purchase a home in Southwest Florida.

Data depicted in the following tables is from the 2016 tax year, which was released on November 30, 2017. Data for the 2017 tax year is scheduled to be released on October 31, 2018. The data below shows the top originating counties and states for in-migrants.

Rank County Total Rank State County Total

1 Lee County 3,001 1 IL Cook County 431

2 Miami-Dade County 941 2 CT Fairfield County 248

3 Broward County 538 3 TX Travis County 218

4 Palm Beach County 309 4 IL DuPage County 176

5 Hillsborough County 226 5 MA Middlesex County 168

6 Orange County 216 6 NY Suffolk County 166

7 Hendry County 181 7 FR Foreign 161

8 Manatee County 180 8 MI Oakland County 160

9 Sarasota County 135 9 NY Nassau County 148

10 Pinellas County 129 10 NJ Bergen County 139

11 Polk County 83 11 NJ Ocean County 139

12 Charlotte County 68 12 IL Lake County 136

13 Duval County 67 13 MA Plymouth County 129

14 Monroe County 64 14 CT Hartford County 128

15 St. Lucie County 48 15 NY Westchester County 128

16 Leon County 47 16 NJ Monmouth County 121

17 Pasco County 46 17 NY New York County 120

18 Martin County 43 18 CT New Haven County 116

19 Alachua County 40 19 OH Cuyahoga County 116

20 Brevard County 39 20 MA Essex County 114

21 Highlands County 38 21 NJ Morris County 113

22 Volusia County 36 22 MN Hennepin County 110

23 Osceola County 35 23 MA Barnstable County 109

24 Marion County 27 24 OH Franklin County 10725 MI Wayne County 104

Source: IRS

In-State Inflow Out-of-State Inflow

Collier Inflow Migration





29


1 Collier County 4,113 1 IL Cook County 502

2 Miami-Dade County 1,929 2 TX Travis County 494

3 Broward County 1,253 3 NY Suffolk County 300

4 Charlotte County 683 4 MI Oakland County 254

5 Hillsborough County 614 5 IL Lake County 215

6 Palm Beach County 564 6 NY Nassau County 213

7 Orange County 512 7 IL Will County 211

8 Sarasota County 433 8 OH Franklin County 208

9 Pinellas County 395 9 CT Fairfield County 205

10 Hendry County 345 10 PA Allegheny County 203

11 Manatee County 263 11 OH Cuyahoga County 196

12 Polk County 244 12 CT Hartford County 194

13 Duval County 168 13 MI Macomb County 194

14 Monroe County 168 14 MN Hennepin County 194

15 Pasco County 163 15 NJ Ocean County 194

16 Seminole County 159 16 CT New Haven County 192

17 Volusia County 154 17 MA Middlesex County 189

18 Brevard County 149 18 IL DuPage County 186

19 Osceola County 139 19 NY Erie County 182

20 Alachua County 110 20 MI Wayne County 181

21 Lake County 107 21 NY Bronx County 179

22 Highlands County 103 22 NY Queens County 175

23 Marion County 99 23 KY Jefferson County 163

24 Leon County 95 24 NY Kings County 161

25 St. Lucie County 85 25 TX Harris County 158

26 Glades County 72 26 IL Kane County 156

27 DeSoto County 71 27 VA Fairfax County 156

28 Escambia County 67 28 NY Monroe County 153

29 St. Johns County 56 29 MA Essex County 150

30 Clay County 54 30 FR Foreign 149

31 Hernando County 50 31 MA Worcester County 149

32 Indian River County 48 32 MD Anne Arundel County 149

33 Bay County 46 33 NJ Bergen County 145

34 Martin County 45 34 AZ Maricopa County 139

35 Citrus County 41 35 NV Clark County 139

36 Okaloosa County 31 36 NC Mecklenburg County 137

37 PA Bucks County 133

38 IN Marion County 133

39 MO St. Louis County 13040 CA Los Angeles County 128

Source: IRS


Lee Inflow Migration





30

Those migrating into Collier, Lee, and Charlotte Counties tend to either be from other local counties or Northeastern and Midwestern states. Migration outflow data for Southwest Florida showed the majority of those leaving the area moved to destinations within a three-hour drive of their previous home.


1 Sarasota County 2,197 1 CT Hartford County 97

2 Lee County 833 2 MA Worcester County 93

3 Desoto County 270 3 NY Suffolk County 76

4 Manatee County 186 4 IL Cook County 75

5 Miami-Dade County 184 5 OH Franklin County 69

6 Broward County 183 6 MI Oakland County 68

7 Hillsborough County 164 7 MA Essex County 67

8 Collier County 155 8 MA Middlesex County 67

9 Palm Beach County 150 9 CT Fairfield County 60

10 Pinellas County 127 10 CT New Haven County 60

11 Orange County 107 11 RI Providence County 57

12 Polk County 90 12 TX Travis County 57

13 Monroe County 64 13 NY Erie County 54

14 Pasco County 64 14 MA Plymouth County 53

15 Highlands County 48 15 NH Rockingham County 51

16 Duval County 46 16 MA Bristol County 50

17 Marion County 39 17 NJ Ocean County 50

18 Seminole County 32 18 MI Wayne County 48

19 ME Cumberland County 4820 NY Queens County 47

Source: IRS


Charlotte Inflow Migration





31

The following chart provides inflow from the top originating states to Collier, Lee, and Charlotte Counties combined.

Historical data has shown a shift in in-migration from predominantly Midwestern states to predominantly Northeastern states over the past 15 years.

Rank State Total

1 New York 3,311

2 New Jersey 2,665

3 Illinois 2,625

4 Massachusetts 2,239

5 Ohio 1,974

6 Pennsylvania 1,709

7 Texas 1,610

8 Michigan 1,593

9 Connecticut 1,503

10 Indiana 730

11 Minnesota 725

12 California 676

13 Maryland 651

14 Virginia 509

15 Georgia 496

16 North Carolina 420

17 Rhode Island 416

18 Foreigners 409

19 Wisconsin 406 20 Colorado 394

21 New Hampshire 393

22 Kentucky 356

23 Arizona 322

24 Missouri 317

25 Tennessee 252

Source: IRS

SWFL Inflow Migration





32

Housing Overview

Collier County Permits The graphs in this section show the history of issued permits for single family detached, single family attached, and multi-family product in Collier County. All product types are important when viewed in terms of the overall health of the real estate market. Collier County saw a total of 2,436 single family detached permits issued over the past 12 months, ending on December 31, 2017. This was a 0.4% increase over the previous 12-month period. The permit level is expected to decline slightly over the next 12 months from the current level.

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Collier County Single Family Detached Issued Permits Per Month

Issued PermitsSource: Collier County Community Dev.





33

New single family detached home permits issued per month in Collier County

December 2012 – December 2017

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Collier Single Family Detached Issued Permits Per Month






34

The tables below rank the top communities and builders for Collier County by building permit issuance for new single family detached homes over the past 12 months, ending on December 31, 2017.

Community SFD Permits Builder SFD Permits1 Golden Gate Estates 517 1 Lennar/WCI 310

2 Maple Ridge/ Hampton Ave Maria 177 2 Pulte 278

3 Stone Creek 142 3 Taylor Morrison 236

4 Esplanade G & CC 131 4 DR Horton 193

5 Naples Reserve 130 5 CC Devco 190

6 Fiddler's Creek 115 6 GL Homes 163

7 Artesia 96 7 Stock 66

8 Winding Cypress 82 8 Mattamy Homes 65

9 Raffia Preserve 70 9 Minto Communities 61

10 Greyhawk G & CC 66 10 Lux Enterprise 55

11 Compass Landing 65 11 Quality Homes 41

12 Del Webb/Bellerawalk Ave Maria 64 12 Metro Home Builders 40

13 Isles of Collier Preserve 55 13 CalAtlantic Homes 38

14 Lamorada 54 14 Ashton Woods 37

15 Esplanade at Hacienda Lakes 52 15 Toll Brothers 33

16 Twin Eagles 52 16 Kaye Custom Homes 31

17 Bent Creek Preserve 38 17 Ash-Ann Homes 27

18 Emerson/Avalon Park Ave Maria 35 18 Habitat for Humanity 25

19 Mockingbird Crossing 31 19 Sanchez Enterprise Group 22

20 Orange Blossom Grove 31 20 Nova Homes 21

21 Tuscany Pointe 31 21 Neal Communities 20

22 Barrington Cove 28 22 FL Star Construction 18

23 Marbella Isles 21 23 Gator Home Construction 16

24 Azure at Hacienda Lakes 18 24 ARCS Investments 15

25 Arrowhead Reserve 17 25 Laram Construction 13

26 Golden Gate City 17 26 Nian Construction 11

27 Verona Pointe Estates 17 27 ARM S.A. 9

28 Fonterra 16 28 Habourside Custom Homes 9

29 Palazzo at Naples 15 29 Royal Home Builders 9

30 Quail West 14 30 Seagate Development 8

31 Naples Park 13 31 Majestic Residential 7

32 Pine Ridge Estates 13 32 The Gebelhoff Group 7

33 Reflection Lakes 13 33 Wellington General Contractors 7

34 Orange Blossom Ranch 10 34 ARBC 6

35 Pelican Bay 10 35 Custom Gulf Builders 6

36 Talis Park 10 36 Golden Home Construction 6

37 Treviso Bay 10 37 London Bay 6

38 Windward Isles 8 38 Naples Home & Remodeling 6

39 Canopy 7 39 Premier Finishes 6

40 Hallendale 7 40 Scharp Contracting 6

41 Mandalay Place 7 41 Sunwest Custom Homes 6

42 Mediterra 7 42 Dalia Building Company 5

43 Avery Square 6 43 Florida Lifestyle Homes 5

44 Conners Vanderbilt 6 44 Goodland Properties 5

45 Enclave of Naples Bay/Linda Park 6 45 T Metro Construction 5





35

There were a total of 289 new single-family attached permits issued for Collier County over the past 12 months, ending on December 31, 2017. This was a 3.6% increase from the previous 12-month period for that product type.

The tables below rank the top communities and builders for Collier County by building permit issuance for new single family attached homes over the past 12 months ending on December 31, 2017.

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Collier Single Family Attached Issued Permits Per Month


Community SFA Permits

1 Naples Reserve 73

2 Isles of Collier Preserve 60

3 Marbella Isles 36

4 Del Webb Ave Maria 32

5 Liberty Landing/Faith 30

6 Winding Cypress 28

7 Artesia 24

8 Golden Gate City 4

9 Orange Blossom Ranch 2

Builder SFA Permits1 DR Horton 73

2 Minto 60

3 Pulte 60

4 GL Homes 36

5 Habitat for Humanity 30

6 Lennar/WCI 26

7 Individuals 2

8 JVM Construction 2





36

Collier County issued permits for 1,428 multi-family units (buildings with 3 or more units) over the past 12 months, ending on December 31, 2017. This was a 95.9% increase from the previous 12-month period. 973 of the 1,428 multi-family units were for rental apartments or assisted living units. Excluding rental and assisted living units, the county saw a 22.2% decrease in for-sale multi-family permit issuance over the past 12 months.

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Collier Multifamily Units Issued Per Month

Issued UnitsSource: Collier County Community Dev.Source: Collier County Community Dev.





37

The tables below rank the top communities and builders for Collier County by building permits issued for new multi-family units over the past 12 months, ending on December 31, 2017.

Community MF Permits

1 Inspira at Lely Apartments 304

2 Addison Place Apts. 240

3 Thrive Naples Assisted Living 197

4 Milano Lakes Apts. 152

5 Mystique 81

6 Richmond Park 72

7 Esplanade G & CC 56

8 Treviso Bay 54

9 Autumn Leaves Assisted Living 50

10 Avalon of Naples 40

11 Talis Park 40

12 Lely Resort 36

13 Terracina Assisted Living 30

14 Vineyards 28

15 Lamorada 16

16 Del Webb Ave Maria 8

17 Isles of Collier Preserve 6

18 Kalea Bay 6

19 Artesia 4

20 Azure at Hacienda Lakes 4

21 Regatta Landing at Windstar 4

Builder MF Permits

1 Brooks & Freund 304

2 Kaufman Lynn Construction 240

3 Deangelis Diamond 197

4 FL Star Construction 152

5 Neal Communities 112

6 Lennar/WCI 110

7 Coastal Construction 81

8 Taylor Morrison 56

9 Lake Superior Contracting 50

10 Stock 36

11 Waltbillig & Hood GC 30

12 Premier Builders 28

13 Pulte 8

14 CR Smith 6

15 Minto 6

16 CalAtlantic 4

17 Front Door Communities 4

18 Toll Brothers 4





38

The following graph shows the trend for total residential units permitted in all of Collier County municipalities combined. Figures from the City of Naples and Marco Island are included in the graph. There were a total of 4,475 residential units permitted across all product types over the past 12 months, ending on December 31, 2017. This was a 21.3% increase over the previous 12-month period. Excluding rental and assisted living units, the county saw a 1.7% decrease in for-sale permit issuance over the past 12 months. Looking forward, we believe residential permit issuance in Collier County will be slightly negative (-5% to -1%) over the next 12 months.

The City of Naples issued permits for 91 single family homes and 110 multi-family units over the past 12 months, while Marco Island issued 121 permits for new single-family homes for the same time period. The City of Naples had 6 permits issued for new single-family homes in the Mangrove Bay community. The projects where the multi-family permits were issued in the City of Naples can be seen below.

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Collier Total Residential Units Permitted (Issued)

Issued Residential UnitsSource: Collier County Community Dev.

Community MF Permits1 Naples Square 77

2 Moorings Park 18

3 Residences at 5th & 5th 11

4 Bay Club of Naples 4





39

Lee County Permits The data for Unincorporated Lee County is shown below. The City of Cape Coral, City of Bonita Springs, Sanibel, Fort Myers Beach, Village of Estero, and City of Fort Myers have their own permit reporting department figures that are reported separately. The Village of Estero started reporting their permits separately in January 2015. Their permits are included in the chart below prior to January 2015.

Unincorporated Lee County issued a total of 1,542 single family detached home permits over the past 12 months, ending on December 31, 2017. This was a 31.7% increase over the previous 12-month period. The permit level in Unincorporated Lee County is expected to increase slightly through the rest of 2017.

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Lee County Unincorporated Single Family Detached Issued Permits Per Month

Issued PermitsSource: Lee County Community Dev.





40

The tables below rank the top communities and builders for Lee County Unincorporated by building permit issuance for new single family detached homes over the past 12 months, ending on December 31, 2017.

Community SF Permits Builder SF Permits1 River Hall 131 1 Lennar/WCI 279

2 Corkscrew Shores 118 2 Pulte 242

3 Shadow Lakes 111 3 LGI Homes 111

4 Place at Corkscrew 87 4 DR Horton 104

5 Hampton Park 66 5 Neal Communities 101

6 Portico 64 6 Wade Jurney 62

7 Town Lakes 52 7 Adams Homes 35

8 Mirada 44 8 SCP Enterprises 35

9 Westbrook 42 9 Kolter Signature Homes 33

10 Cypress Walk 41 10 Stock 28

11 Verandah 41 11 Cay Homes 20

12 San Carlos Park 38 12 Lyons Housing 14

13 Miromar Lakes 32 13 Argo Homes 13

14 Coastal Key 27 14 KB Homes 12

15 St James City 24 15 Habitat for Humanity 11

16 Daniels Place 23 16 Wright Construction 11

17 Bokeelia 22 17 Coral Isle Builders 10

18 Hidden Harbor 21 18 Sposen Signature Homes 10

19 Buckingham Park 17 19 Bagans Construction 9

20 Coves of Estero 12 20 Daniel Wayne Homes 9

21 Timberwood Preserve 12 21 Divco 9

22 The Groves / Lehigh 11 22 BMR Construction 7

23 Boca Grande 10 23 Royal Corinthian Homes 7

24 Coconut Cove 10 24 Sun Country Homes 7

25 Cape Royal/Royal Tee 9 25 Harborside Custom Homes 6

26 Venetian Pointe 9 26 Harden Custom Homes 6

27 Mirror Lakes 8 27 John Michael Koza Contracting 6

28 Renaissance 8 28 Turn Key Homes 6

29 Town & River 8 29 Accurate Builders of SWFL 5

30 Horsecreek 7 30 Carlton Naumann 5

31 Shell Point 7 31 Lauren Homes 5

32 Captiva Island 6 32 M and J Construction 5

33 Palm Acres 6 33 MP Contractors 5

34 Florimond Manor 5 34 Providence International 5





41

In addition to single family detached, there were a total of 104 new single family attached permits issued for Unincorporated Lee over the past 12 months, ending on December 31, 2017. The communities and builders for single family attached can be seen in the following charts.

There were also 1,245 multi-family units (3 + units per building) built in Unincorporated Lee County over the past 12 months, ending on December 31, 2017. This was a 123.9% increase over the previous 12-month period for this product type. 1,099 of the 1,245 multi-family units were for rental apartments or assisted living units. Excluding rental and assisted living units, Unincorporated Lee County saw a 52.4% decrease in for sale multi-family permit issuance over the past 12 months. The communities and builders for multi-family units can be seen in the following charts.

Community SF Att. Permits1 Avida Senior Living/ALF 28

2 Lucaya 16

3 Cypress Cove Villas/ALF 14

4 Shell Point 12

5 Venetian Pointe 12

6 Lehigh Acres 6

7 Riverside Avenue Villas 6

8 Charlotte Shores 2

9 Lochmoor 2

10 Other 2

11 San Carlos Park 2

12 Villas at Causeway Key 2

Builder SF Att. Permits1 Deangelis Diamond 28


3 Chris-Tel Construction 14

4 Wright Construction 12

5 Taz Construction / Zuckerman 12

6 Dalton Communities 6

7 Individuals 6

8 Fremar Construction 2

9 Manatee Construction 2

10 Southern Premier Homes 2

11 The Wolter Group 2

12 We Builders 2


1 Avida Senior Living/ALF 432

2 Millennium Apts. 298

3 Summerlin Ridge Apts. 224

4 Canterfield Village ALF 115

5 Hammock Cove 48

6 Coconut Plantation 36

7 Shell Point ALF 30

8 Palmetto Cove 28

9 Summerlin Place 26

10 Prentiss Pointe 8

Builder MF Permits1 Deangelis Diamond 462

2 Essian Construction 298

3 Brooks & Freund 224

4 Medical Development Corp 115

5 Lennar 54

6 DR Horton 48

7 Gates Construction 36

8 Kolter 8





42

Lehigh Acres submarket figures, which are included in the Unincorporated Lee County chart, are shown separately in the following charts.

There were 462 permits issued for new single-family homes in Lehigh Acres over the past 12 months, ending on December 31, 2017. This was a 48.6% increase over the previous 12-month period. Lehigh Acres experienced its best monthly output (72) in June 2017 for permits issued for new homes in Lehigh Acres since June 2007. To put the current level of new home permit activity into perspective, there were only 68 new single-family permits issued in total in Lehigh Acres over the five-year period 2009-2013. Permit activity is expected to continue to increase in Lehigh Acres over the next 12 months.

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New single family detached home permits issued in Lehigh Acres December 2012 – December 2017

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44

The Village of Estero figures, shown in the following chart, are in addition to the Lee County Unincorporated figures. The Village of Estero issued a total of 110 single family home permits over the past 12 months, ending on December 31, 2017. This was a 9.1% decrease over the previous 12-month period. Permit figures for the Village of Estero were included in Unincorporated Lee County figures through December 2014 and separately thereafter.

The tables below rank the top communities and builders for the Village of Estero by building permit issuance for new single family detached homes over the past 12 months ending on December 31, 2017.

In addition, there were permits issued for 34 new single family attached homes over the past 12 months, ending on December 31, 2017 within the Village of Estero. The 34 single family attached homes were all permitted in the Tidewater community by Pulte Homes.

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Village of Estero Single Family Detached Issued Permits Per Month

Issued PermitsSource: Village of Estero Community Dev.

Community SF Permits Builder SF Permits1 Tidewater 52 1 Pulte 52

2 Pebble Pointe 23 2 Neal Communities 24

3 Estero Place 20 3 Taylor Morrison 23

4 Oaks of Estero 4 4 Gulfshore Construction 3

5 West Bay 4





45

There were also 335 multi-family units (3 + units per building) built in the Village of Estero over the past 12 months ending on December 31, 2017. The communities and builders for multi-family units can be seen in the following charts.

The City of Cape Coral figures, shown in the following chart, are in addition to the Lee County Unincorporated figures. Cape Coral issued a total of 1,842 single family home permits over the past 12 months ending on December 31, 2017. This was a 40.9% increase over the previous 12-month period. Cape Coral new single-family home permit activity is expected to slightly increase over the next 12 months.

Community MF Permits Builder MF Permits1 Springs at Gulf Coast Apts. 203 1 Elkins Construction 203

2 Genova 72 2 Surety Construction 72

3 The Reef at Coastal Village Apts. 60 3 Spire Construction 60

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Cape Coral Single Family Issued Permits Per Month

Issued PermitsSource: City of Cape Coral





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New single family detached home permits issued per month in Cape Coral December 2012 –December 2017

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Cape Coral Single Family Detached Issued Permits Per Month

Issued PermitsSource: City of Cape Coral





47

The tables below rank the top builders and communities for Cape Coral by building permit issuance for new single family detached homes over the past 12 months, ending on December 31, 2017.

Builder SF Permits1 DR Horton 414

2 LGI / All About Building 179

3 Wade Jurney/WJHFL LLC 135

4 Maronda Homes 63

5 Lennar 53


7 Adams Homes 50

8 Hansen Homes 49

9 JHS Builders 40

10 Pinnacle Building Solutions 37

11 Dalton Communities 35

12 Goodwin Construction 33

13 Holiday Builders 33

14 Coral Isle Builders 32

15 Sposen Signature Homes 26

16 Groff Building 21

17 Arnold Roberts Signature Homes 20

18 Bellwether Construction 18

19 Paraco Inc 17

20 Beatie Development 15

21 Windward Construction 15

22 Wall Homes 14

23 Donnelly Homes/Construction 13

24 White Stone Property Solutions 13

25 Paul Homes 12

26 Nextech Construction 11

27 Spo Construction 11

28 Tracey Quality Building 11

29 GSD Construction 10

30 Pascal Construction 10

31 SC Custom Homes 10

32 Tundra Homes 10

33 Aubuchon Homes 9

34 Option One Builders 9

35 Tracey Homes 9

36 Costa Bella Homes 8

37 Majowski Construction 8

38 Michael Devito Homes 8

39 Poseidon Homes 8

40 Premier Cape Construction 8

41 Ramos Builders 8

42 Sweet Home Construction 8





48

In addition to single family detached, there were a total of 202 new single family attached permits (including duplex units) issued for the City of Cape Coral over the past 12 months, ending on December 31, 2017. This was a 21.7% decrease over the previous 12-month period. The builders for that product type can be seen in the table below.

There were also 654 multi-family units (3 + units per building) built in Cape Coral over the past 12 months, ending on December 31, 2017. Only 118 multi-family units were permitted in the Cape in 2016. The builders and communities for multi-family units can be seen in the following charts.

Community SF Permits1 Villages of Entrada 131

2 Bella Vida 53

3 Sandoval 52

4 Sunset Pointe 19

5 Tarpon Point 5

Builder SF Att. Permits

1 SN Construction 120

2 Ability Construction 16

3 Manclar Builders 10

4 Gulf Stone Construction 8

5 Individuals 8

6 All Trades Construction 6

7 Roland Roofing Corp 6

8 Sweet Home Construction 6

9 Bellwether Construction 4

10 Fremar Construction 4

11 Armex Construction 2

12 Concept Construction 2

13 Lindsey Carpentry 2

14 M & J Construction 2

15 Pinnacle Building Solutions 2

16 Ramos Builders 2

17 Robert Palmer Contracting 2

Builder MF Permits1 Brooks & Freund 506

2 DeAngelis Diamond 140

3 Alcazar Construction 8

Community MF Permits1 Uptown at Liberty Park Apts. 320

2 Sandoval Apts. 186

3 Thrive Cape Coral Asst. Living 140

4 Santa Barbara Place 8





49

The figures for the City of Fort Myers are also in addition to the Unincorporated Lee County figures. The City of Fort Myers issued a total of 518 single family detached home permits over the past 12 months, ending on December 31, 2017. This was a 20.4% decrease from the previous 12-month period.

The top communities and builders of new single family detached homes for the City of Fort Myers for the past 12 months, ending on December 31, 2017, can be seen in the following charts.

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City of Ft. Myers Single Family Detached Issued Permits

Issued PermitsSource: City of Ft Myers Community Dev.

Community SF Permits

1 Plantation/Bridgetown 162

2 Marina Bay 107

3 Pelican Preserve 82

4 Arborwood Preserve 54

5 Watermark 43

6 Lindsford 37

7 Reflection Isles 11

8 Majorca Palms 8

9 Caloosa Pointe 2

10 Castalina 2

Builder SF Permits

1 Pulte 162

2 Lennar/WCI 147

3 GL Homes 107


5 DR Horton 39


7 CalAtlantic 2





50

In addition to single family detached, there were a total of 244 new single family attached permits issued for the City of Fort Myers over the past 12 months, ending on December 31, 2017. This was a 0.8% decrease for that product type over the previous 12-month period. The top communities and builders for that product type can be seen in the following tables.

There were also permits issued for 390 multi-family units (buildings with 3 or more units) in the City of Fort Myers over the past 12 months, ending on December 31, 2017. This was a 20.1% decrease for that product type over the previous 12-month period. 332 of the 390 multi-family units were for rental apartments. Excluding rental units, the city saw a 43.1% decrease in for sale multi-family permit issuance over the past 12 months. The communities and builders for that product type can be seen in the following tables.

Community SF Att. Permits

1 Lindsford 68

2 Marbella 58

3 Marina Bay 50

4 Watermark 48


6 Castalina 2


1 Lennar/WCI 76

2 DR Horton 68

3 GL Homes 50


5 CalAtlantic 2


1 Venetian Apts. 332


3 Arborwood Preserve 12

4 Plantation/Bridgetown 12

Builder MF Permits1 Wieland Davco Corporation 332

2 Lennar/WCI 46

3 Pulte/Centex 12





51

Permit figures for Bonita Springs were included in Unincorporated Lee County figures through June 2008. Beginning July 2008, Bonita Springs started to report their figures separately.

The City of Bonita Springs issued a total of 434 new single family detached home permits over the past 12 months, ending on December 31, 2017. This was a 26.2% increase over the previous 12-month period.

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Bonita Springs Single Family Detached Issued Permits Per Month

Issued PermitsSource: Bonita Springs Community Dev.





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New single family detached home permits issued in Bonita Springs December 2012 – December 2017

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Bonita Springs Single Family Detached Issued Permits Per Month

Issued PermitsSource: Bonita Springs Community Dev.





53

The top communities and builders measured by single family detached permit issuance in the City of Bonita Springs for the past 12 months, ending on December 31, 2017, can be seen below.

In addition to single family detached, there were a total of 54 new single family attached permits issued for the City of Bonita Springs over the past 12 months, ending on December 31, 2017. The communities and builders for that product type can be seen in the following charts.

There were also permits issued for 241 multi-family units in the City of Bonita Springs over the past 12 months, ending on December 31, 2017. This was a 41.8% decrease for that product type over the previous 12-month period. The communities and builders for that product type can be seen in the following charts.

Community SF Permits

1 Bonita National 143

2 Valencia 61

3 Bonita Landing 51

4 Bonita Lakes 22

5 Wildwood Preserve 22

6 San Carlos Estates 20

7 Bonita Fairways 19

8 Cordova at Spanish Wells 11

9 Quail West 11

10 Bonita Farms 6

11 Bonita Golf Club Villas 6

12 Bonita Beach 5

13 Red Hibiscus 5

14 Heitmans 4

15 Arroyal 3

16 Bell Villa 3

17 Serrano 3

18 Sun Village Estates 3

Builder SF Permits1 Lennar 194

2 GL Homes 61

3 Toll Brothers 33

4 DR Horton 23

5 Home Dynamics 19

6 Stock 9

7 Chala Development Group 5


9 Greenleaf Homes 4

10 Patagonia Development 4

11 Harden Custom Homes 3

12 McGarvey Custom Homes 3

13 Potter Homes 3

Community SF Att. Permits

1 Valencia 44

2 Other 8

3 Windsor Acres 2

Builder SF Att. Permits1 GL Homes 44

2 Thomas Lawerence Enterprises 8

3 Ramos Builders 2

Community MF Permits1 Bonita National 160

2 Paloma 44

3 Lakeview Townhomes 21

4 Palmesta 16

Builder MF Permits

1 Lennar 160

2 DR Horton 44

3 Coastland Construction 21

4 Hickory Homes 16





54

The following graph shows the trend for total residential units permitted in all of Lee County municipalities combined; including figures from Sanibel and Fort Myers Beach. There were a total of 7,994 residential units permitted across all product types over the past 12 months, ending on December 31, 2017. This was a 37.2% increase over the previous 12-month period. Excluding rental and assisted living units, Lee County saw only a 10.9% increase in for sale permit issuance over the past 12 months. If we look at only single family detached figures, Lee County experienced a 23.3% increase in 2017 over the previous year. Looking forward, we believe residential permit issuance overall in Lee County will be flat to slightly negative over the next 12 months.

Fort Myers Beach had 22 permits issued for new homes over the past 12 months, while Sanibel had 27 over the same period.

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Lee County Total Residential Units Permitted (Issued)

Issued Residential UnitsSource: LSI





55

Charlotte County Permits There were a total of 1,066 permits issued for new single family detached homes within Charlotte County over the past 12 months, ending on December 31, 2017. This was a 10.8% increase from the previous 12-month period.

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Charlotte Single Family Detached Issued Permits Per Month

Issued PermitsSource: Charlotte County Building Dept.





56

New single family home permits issued per month in Charlotte County

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Charlotte Single Family Detached Issued Permits Per Month

Issued permitsSource: Charlotte County Building Dept.





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The top communities and builders measured by single family detached permit issuance in Charlotte County for the past 12 months, ending on December 31, 2017, can be seen below.

Community SF Permits Builder SF Permits1 Port Charlotte 520 1 DM Dean Inc 76

2 Punta Gorda Isles 115 2 Adams Homes 70

3 Rotonda Lakes 36 3 Maronda 62

4 Babcock Ranch - Lake Timber 32 4 HD Custom Homes 50

5 Rotonda Pinehurst 27 5 Snyder Construction 49

6 Villa Milano 25 6 Wade Jurney/WJHFL 42

7 Rotonda White Marsh 24 7 Snyder Built Construction 33

8 Waterford 20 8 Porter Contracting 29

9 Rotonda Pine Valley 19 9 Habitat for Humanity 27

10 Rotonda Broadmoor 17 10 Casas Del Sol Inc 20

11 Rotonda Long Meadow 17 11 DR Horton 20

12 Rotonda Heights 13 12 Capital Building & Const. 18

13 Ridge Harbor 12 13 Tradewinds Luxury Homes 17

14 Tropical Gulf Acres 12 14 Breakwater Construction 16

15 Coral Caye 11 15 Vantage Homes 16

16 Oak Harbour 11 16 Southern Style Homes 14

17 Harbor Heights 10 17 Southwest Building 14

18 Cape Haze Winward 9 18 Benko Construction 13

19 Calusa Creek 8 19 Impact Homes 13

20 Cape Haze 8 20 KB Home 13

21 El Jobean Ward 5 21 Walker Homes 13

22 Tee & Green Estates 5 22 Hamsher Homes 12

23 Vizcaya Lakes 4 23 DMI Inc 11

24 Charlotte Park 3 24 FM Contract Service 11

25 Pebble Creek 3 25 Frank Fredricks Custom Homes 11

26 Pirate Harbor 3 26 Lennar 10

27 Prairie Creek 3 27 Peace River Custom Homes 10

28 River Club 3 28 Quality Homes of Port Charlotte 10

29 Harbor Home Builders 9

30 Brigon Homes 8

31 Warren Hope Builders 8

32 Lexington Custom Homes 7

33 Pope Builders 7

34 Cantin Homes 6

35 Southwest Florida Dream Builders 6

36 Thornberry Custom Builders 6





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There were 68 single family attached permits issued in Charlotte County over the past 12 months, ending on December 31, 2017. This was a 112.5% increase from the previous 12-month period for that product type. The communities and builders for that product type can be seen in the following charts.

Charlotte County issued permits for a total of 1,134 residential units across all product types over the past 12 months, ending on December 31, 2017. This was a 0.8% decrease over the previous 12-month period. Looking forward, we believe new home residential permit issuance in Charlotte County will experience a slight increase over the next 12 months.

Community SF Att. Permits1 Tuscany Isles 24

2 Port Charlotte 18

3 Punta Gorda Isles 10

4 The Landings at Coral Creek 8

5 Harborside at El Jobean 4

6 Englewood Shores 2

7 Rotonda Pebble Beach 2


1 KB Homes 24

2 DR Horton 8

3 Hamsher Homes 6

4 Individual Owners 6

5 Best Future Homes 4

6 Canino Construction 4

7 Charlotte County Construction 4

8 Maronda Homes 4

9 Devin Homes 2

10 Don Riggs Concrete 2

11 ER Residential Contractor 2

12 Tressler Homes of SW Florida 2





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Total Combined Permits (Collier, Lee, & Charlotte) There were a total of 13,603 permits issued for new residential housing units in Collier, Lee, and Charlotte Counties combined over the past 12 months, ending on December 31, 2017. This was a 27.9% increase from the previous 12-month period, which saw 10,639 new residential housing units permitted. When we exclude rental apartments and assisted living units, Collier, Lee, and Charlotte Counties combined saw a 6.5% increase in for-sale permit issuance over the past 12 months. When we look at only permits issued for new single family detached homes, our market saw a 12.8% increase. Looking forward, we project 2018 to see between 11,800 – 12,300 new residential units permitted. The combined monthly trend can be seen in the following chart.

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Total Residential Units PermittedSource: LSI & County/City Departments





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Collier MLS Sales Trends The following graphs indicate single family and multi-family sales trends for Collier County. The data for this portion of the report was obtained from the Naples Area Board of Realtors (NABOR). The median price for the fourth quarter of 2017 stood at $438,145 for a single family detached home in Collier County, which was a 5.6% increase over the same period from 2016.

The median income in Collier County, according to the 2016 U.S. Census Bureau’s ACS, supports a median home price of approximately $262,136 with a 10% down payment and assuming a 4.00% interest rate.





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The median price for the fourth quarter of 2017 stood around $255,000 for multi-family homes in Collier County, which mirrored the same period from 2016.





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Lee MLS Sales Trends The following graphs indicate single family and multi-family sales trends for Lee County. The data was taken from the Realtor Association of Greater Fort Myers and the Beach. The median price for the fourth quarter of 2017 stood at $239,900 for a single family detached home in Lee County, which was a 2.5% increase over the same period from 2016.

The median income, according to the 2016 U.S. Census Bureau’s ACS, supports a median home price of approximately $221,456 with a 10% down payment and assuming a 4.00% interest rate.





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The median price for the fourth quarter of 2017 stood at $183,000 for multi-family homes in Lee County. This was a 0.3% increase over the same period from 2016.





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Subdivision Vacant Developed Lot Inventories The following charts show the top subdivisions by volume of vacant developed lot (VDL) inventories for single family detached lots in Collier, Lee, and Charlotte Counties as of December 31, 2017.

Rank Community VDL Rank Community VDL

1 Stone Creek 321 24 Compass Landing 55

2 Fiddler's Creek 296 25 Artesia 53

3 Naples Reserve 257 26 Treviso Bay 51

4 Arrowhead Reserve 250 27 Mediterra 43

5 Isles of Collier Preserve 222 28 Palazzo at Naples 33

6 Greyhawk 219 29 Coco Lakes 33

7 Royal Palm Golf Estates 209 30 Valencia Lakes 33

8 Avalon Park/Emerson Park 182 31 Mangrove Bay 26

9 Dell Webb/Bellerawalk 175 32 Talis Park 25

10 Winding Cypress 158 33 Lely Resort 24

11 Esplanade G & CC 144 34 Enclave on Naples Bay 22

12 Maple Ridge/Hampton Village 143 35 Twin Eagles 20

13 Lamorada 122 36 Breeze of Calusa 17

14 Raffia Preserve 117 37 Windward Isles 16

15 Orange Blossom Ranch 110 38 Barrington Cove 15

16 Quail West 107 39 Mercato Residences 14

17 Azure at Hacienda Lakes 82 40 Audubon Country Club 13

18 Esplanade @ Hacienda Lakes 78 41 Naples Club Estates 13

19 Avery Square 73 42 Willoughby Preserve 13

20 Valencia Golf & CC 70 43 Chatham Woods 12

21 Bent Creek Preserve 59 44 Mockingbird Crossing 12

22 Orange Blossom Grove 58 45 Landings at Bear's Paw 11

23 Fonterra 56 46 Legacy Estates 11

Source: LSI

Collier Vacant Developed Lots





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Rank Community VDL Rank Community VDL

1 River Hall 727 27 Bonita Landing 50

2 Place at Corkscrew 542 28 Copperhead 50

3 Valencia GL 411 29 Daniels Place 50

4 Portico 298 30 Mirada 44

5 Lindsford 264 31 Remington Oaks 43

6 Villages of Entrada 255 32 Horse Creek 42

7 Plantation CC/Bridgetown 254 33 Sandoval 42

8 Marina Bay 246 34 Hampton Park 41

9 Pelican Preserve 213 35 Cypress Walk 32

10 Corkscrew Shores 187 36 Cape Harbour 31

11 Magnolia Landing/Herons Glen 177 37 Coconut Cove 31

12 Bonita Fairways 174 38 Serrano 30

13 Verandah 143 39 Kismet Lakes 27

14 The Grove 124 40 Hickey Creek 24

15 Arborwood Preserve 110 41 Calusa Ridge 23

16 Caloosa Preserve 110 42 Serengeti 22

17 Westbrook 108 43 Wildwood Preserve 22

18 Town Lakes 93 44 Tarpon Point 21

19 Cape Royal/Royal Tee 91 45 Pebble Pointe 18

20 Miromar Lakes 79 46 Renaissance 18

21 Bonital National 77 47 West Bay 18

22 Venetian Pointe 71 48 Hidden Harbor 17

23 Estero Pointe 63 49 Rails End 15

24 Corkscrew Ranch 60 50 Sunset Pointe 15

25 Coves of Estero Bay 54 51 Watermark 15

26 Tidewater 51 52 Trieste Preserve 14

Source: LSI

Lee Vacant Developed Lots

Rank Community VDL

1 Babcock Ranch 613

2 Tern Bay 201

3 River Club 118

4 Villa Milano 70

5 Eagle Preserve Estates 63

6 Calusa Creek 63

7 Coral Caye 60

8 Waterford Estates 40

9 Kingsgate 14

10 Rio Villa Lakes 11

Source: LSI

Charlotte Vacant Developed Lots





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Cape Coral and Lehigh Acres Lot Sales Trends The real estate bust of 2008/2009 led to massive declines in single family lot prices in Cape Coral and Lehigh Acres. The average selling price for a lot in Lehigh Acres and Cape Coral fell about 92%-95% from their peak in late 2005 and have since rebounded. Sale prices for these lots started to show healthy gains in 2013. These gains continued into early 2016. As we approached the end of 2016/beginning of 2017, we started to see these lot prices plateau. The following charts indicate average lot sale trends in those markets for lots under 0.33 acres on a monthly basis. Lot data for Cape Coral only pertains to non-waterfront lots.

On average, lots sold for approximately $17,681 in Cape Coral and $4,975 in Lehigh Acres in the fourth quarter of 2017. Comparatively, the average selling price in 2003 was $16,804 in Cape Coral and $6,860 in Lehigh Acres.

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Notable Transactions





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Construction Material Indexes The following graphs produced by Ken Simonson, Chief Economist for the Associated General Contractors (AGC) of America, show price indices for various construction materials with a base starting point of January, 2015. Higher material costs are a concern because they make new homes less competitive against re-sales. The fall in oil prices and a strong dollar have helped keep material costs in check over the past two years. We expect these trends to continue in the short term before potentially reversing course in 6-12 months.

Source: AGC of America





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General Limiting Conditions

Every reasonable effort has been exerted in order that the data contained in this report reflects the most accurate and timely information that is possible, within practical budget limitations, and is believed to be reliable. However, no responsibility is assumed for errors or inaccuracies caused by any clerical error or inadvertent mistakes in the transcription of information from public domain to this report.

Commissioning of this report does not grant the client any right of access to, or ownership of, any data, computer programs, spreadsheets or any other work product acquired or created by Land Solutions Inc., whether for the preparation of this report or otherwise.

This report may not be used for any purpose other than that for which it was prepared. No part of this report may be published without the prior written consent of Land Solutions, Inc. Violation of these limiting conditions may lead to legal action and damages against the offending party.





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Market Research & Reporting by Doug Meschko, Market Research Director As the Director of Market Research for Land Solutions, it is my goal to provide the most accurate and up-to-date information about land and improved properties throughout Southwest Florida. I have been active in real estate statistics and valuation for several years. I was previously a Research Analyst with Metrostudy and continue to provide the most comprehensive research and reporting to our prospects and clients. Unlike other research organizations that rely on national data to formulate market predictions, we track transactional data including permitting and demographics to paint an accurate picture of the market in real time. We research every aspect of statistical and transactional data in Lee, Collier and Charlotte counties to keep the finger on the pulse in Southwest Florida. Should you need assistance with real estate market research or reporting, please consider Land Solutions as your brokerage firm that can provide your organization with any of the following: · Market Studies · Valuation Services · Litigation Support · Target Market Analysis · Highest and Best Use Analysis · Feasibility Analysis · Site Selection · Data Gathering · Appraisal Reviews · Pricing Strategy · Absorption Forecasts · Demographic Analysis · Acquisition, Reposition, & Disposition Strategies · Broker Opinion of Value · Custom Reports · Product Recommendations

Doug Meschko is the Market

Research Director & Broker Associate for Land Solutions. A resident of Naples, Doug is a

licensed broker with 17 years of real estate experience ranging from consulting to sales and leasing. He was previously a Market Analyst for Metrostudy.

He holds a BA degree from Ohio State, an MBA from Florida Gulf Coast University, and is an

Accredited Land Consultant (ALC).



10471 Six Mile Cypress Pkwy #402 Fort Myers, FL 33966

239-489-4066 www.landsolutions.net

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