market update potatoes in practice 2015. what we do and what we can do for you… estimates...
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Market UpdatePotatoes in Practice 2015
What we do and what we can do for you…
• Estimates
• Publications
Provide the potato industry with independent, accurate and transparent market information.
Consumer
52 w/e 24 Jun 12
52 w/e 19 Aug 12
52 w/e 14 Oct 12
52 w/e 09 Dec 12
52 w/e 03 Feb 13
52 w/e 31 Mar 13
52 w/e 26 May 13
52 w/e 21 Jul 13
52 w/e 15 Sep 13
52 w/e 10 Nov 13
52 w/e 05 Jan 14
52 w/e 02 Mar 14
52 w/e 27 Apr 14
52 w/e 22 Jun 14
52 w/e 17 Aug 14
52 w/e 12 Oct 14
52 w/e 07 Dec 14
52 w/e 01 Feb 15
52 w/e 29 Mar 15
52 w/e 24 May 15
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
0.4%
Fresh potato volumes sold in GB retail have moved back into posi-tive year-on-year growth as the market continues to stabilise
Fre
sh P
otat
oes
Yea
r-on
-yea
r ch
ange
in v
olum
e
Source: Kantar Worldpanel
Consumer habits are changing. They’re finding ways to save time and effort
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
Frozen jacket potatoes
Spend (
£ m
illio
n)
2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Rolling 52 w/e
GB area, yield and production
Source: AHDB
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Potato Plantings ('000 ha) Average Yield (t/ha) Production ('000 t)
*provisional - indication of production based on latest area estimate and 5-year average yield.
GB main production areas 2014-2015
One fifth of total GB potato planted area is in Scotland, with almost half of this seed potatoes.
Over half of plantings are in East of England and Yorkshire and the Humber.
Source: AHDB Planting Returns
Regional Crop Progress
Source: Met Office
North West Europe Area Estimate (excl. seed & starch)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
490
500
510
520
530
540
550 Total area ('000 ha) Production ('000 t)
*provisional - indication of production based on latest area estimate and 5-year av-erage yield
Source: NEPG/AHDB
UK Seed Trade (tonnes)
Source: HMRC
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15Jun-May Jun-May Jun-May Jun-May Jun-May
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
SEED EXPORTS SEED IMPORTS
GB seasonal price trends
Source: AHDB
Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov-12 Mar-13 Jul-13 Nov-13 Mar-14 Jul-14 Nov-14 Mar-150
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450GB overall (contract and free-buy) and free-buy prices since 2011 (ex farm)
Overall
Free-Buy
Pric
e (£
/t)
Things to look out for in the next month…
• Updated area estimate including area by variety (end-Aug)
• Consumer Category Report (Aug)• Euro Potato (September)• NEPG area update (September)
Thank you
Rebecca HughesConsumer Insight [email protected] 7647 8700
Arthur [email protected] 7647 8956
Sara MaslowskiSenior [email protected] 7647 8953
Isobel RobinsonTrainee [email protected] 7647 8863