market watch october 2012

Monthly Market Watch for Maricopa County

An overview of what is happening in the Maricopa County real estate market

Provided by Keller Williams Realty Professional Partners – Statistics from OCTOBER 2012 MLS

$29.95

Provided by Keller Williams Realty Professional Partners Statistics from OCTOBER 2012 MLS

Report overview: This report includes MLS data for the

past 36 months in Maricopa County only as provided by the FlexMLS system.

Please note that searches fluctuate daily when running these reports;

these figures were obtained on 11/3/12. A reminder that you need to meet with a real estate professional

to see how statistics impact the area where you are considering selling or buying – blended statistics will not be as accurate as a more detailed report

that your real estate professional can provide to help you with your decision making.


Clo

sed

Sale

s Pr

ovid

ed b

y K

elle

r Will

iam

s R

ealty

Pro

fess

iona

l Par

tner

s –

Stat

istic

s fr

om O

CTO

BER

201

2 M

LS

Nov$ Dec$ Jan$ Feb$ Mar$ Apr$ May$ June$ July$ Aug$ Sep$ Oct$

11/09$to$10/10$ 6657$ 6677$ 5829$ 5777$ 7871$ 8040$ 8112$ 8186$ 6314$ 6570$ 5979$ 5844$

11/10$to$10/11$ 5971$ 7420$ 5765$ 6317$ 8668$ 8273$ 8710$ 9879$ 7598$ 7775$ 7193$ 6756$

11/11$to$10/12$ 6418$ 7010$ 5713$ 6436$ 7859$ 7450$ 7533$ 7694$ 6324$ 6713$ 5803$ 6232$

Nov$

Dec$

Jan$

Feb$

Mar$

Apr$ May$June$

July$

Aug$

Sep$

Oct$

5000$

6000$

7000$

8000$

9000$

10000$

Total$#$of$Closed$Sales$(36$month$overview)$


Closed Sales Report Analysis:

Sellers: October did not follow the trends of the prior two years where we saw the number of

closed sales drop Instead, October saw a 7.4% increase over the prior month. The statistics show that we had 6,232 residential homes sell in the month of October in Maricopa County. It will be important to watch this trend over the next few months to

see if there is a continuous shift in trends compared to the prior years.

Buyers: For buyers, this means that competition for homes remains even higher, as more homes sell and are no longer an option for buyers. We continue to see homes sell well above

list price AND cash buyers continue to have an edge where there are bidding wars, especially when homes are priced below $150,000. Buyers should continue to carefully

work with their real estate professional to understand the market AND how they can compete with the market demand and other buyers who may be in a financial position

that is more appealing to the seller.


Dis

tres

sed

Sale

s Pr

ovid

ed b

y K

elle

r Will

iam

s R

ealty

Pro

fess

iona

l Par

tner

s –

Stat

istic

s fr

om O

CTO

BER

201

2 M

LS

REO$SALES$12%$

SHORT$SALES$27%$

NON/DISTRESSED$

SALES$61%$

REO,$SHORT$SALE$&$NON/DISTRESSED$SALES$COMPARISON$OCTOBER$2012$

REO$SALES$

SHORT$SALES$

NON+DISTRESSED$SALES$


Distressed Sales Analysis:

A bank owned/foreclosure home is one that the seller no longer owns – it has been taken over by the lender(s) who had a note on the

home. Short sales are homes where the seller is negotiating with the bank to “forgive” a portion of the debt in order to avoid foreclosure.

The market continues to shift, as we saw 61.2% of sales

in the month of October classified as “non-distressed” sales. This is the highest number in the 36 month reporting period.

Bank-owned sales dropped from 12.4% to 12.1%, and short sales decreased from 27.7% to 26.8%. Sellers and buyers

need to monitor this trend to see how the market continues to respond to the current inventory.


Pen

din

g Sa

les

Prov

ided

by

Kel

ler W

illia

ms

Rea

lty P

rofe

ssio

nal P

artn

ers

– St

atis

tics

from

OC

TOB

ER 2

012

MLS


11/09$to$10/10$ 5321$ 8331$ 6204$ 6975$ 11584$ 8946$ 5905$ 5772$ 5855$ 5936$ 5861$ 5674$

11/10$to$10/11$ 6125$ 5595$ 6932$ 7350$ 8969$ 8207$ 8252$ 7603$ 6710$ 7246$ 5901$ 5862$

11/11$to$10/12$ 5532$ 5069$ 6514$ 6642$ 7260$ 6656$ 6215$ 5687$ 5378$ 5664$ 4906$ 5613$

Nov$Dec$

Jan$Feb$

Mar$

Apr$

May$

June$

July$ Aug$

Sep$

Oct$

0$

3000$

6000$

9000$

12000$

Total&#&of&Pending&Sales&(36&month&overview)&

11/09$to$10/10$

11/10$to$10/11$

11/11$to$10/12$


Pending Sales Analysis:

Sellers: Pending sales in October increased by 14.4% over the month of September for a total of 5,613 homes moving to under contract status. This does not follow the same pattern we

saw in the month of October in the prior 2 years. Sellers should continue to monitor these numbers to determine what type of activity there should be on their homes,

as we normally see this number drop in the fall months.

Buyers: This stat is an indicator that buyer activity continues to remain very high – even at a

time of year when closed sales tend to level off. Educated and savvy buyers understand that a competitive market gives them fewer options for home choices,

negotiating on price AND looking for concessions from a seller. Although this may vary from area to area AND from price range to price range,

buyers need to make sure they are fully informed regarding the individual market in which they have an interest. This will give them the best chance of being competitive

in the search for a home.


Ave

rage

Sal

es P

rice

Pr

ovid

ed b

y K

elle

r Will

iam

s R

ealty

Pro

fess

iona

l Par

tner

s –

Stat

istic

s fr

om O

CTO

BER

201

2 M

LS


11/09$to$10/10$ $184,008$$$182,387$$$182,387$$$181,472$$$187,979$$$180,896$$$184,312$$$188,568$$$181,730$$$171,036$$$165,730$$$170,326$$

11/10$to$10/11$ $167,154$$$163,403$$$163,403$$$162,283$$$165,559$$$167,850$$$165,431$$$165,035$$$160,463$$$155,656$$$159,762$$$158,517$$

11/11$to$10/12$ $165,881$$$168,365$$$170,133$$$172,603$$$188,088$$$197,336$$$210,145$$$205,624$$$204,057$$$196,857$$$205,686$$$211,537$$

Nov$

Dec$Jan$

Feb$

Mar$

Apr$

May$

June$July$

Aug$

Sep$ Oct$

$$145,000$$

$$155,000$$

$$165,000$$

$$175,000$$

$$185,000$$

$$195,000$$

$$205,000$$

$$215,000$$

Average$Sales$Price$(36$month$overview)$

11/09$to$10/10$

11/10$to$10/11$

11/11$to$10/12$


Average Sales Price Analysis:

Sellers: WOW … pay attention! After several months of a decrease in the average sales price, the month of

October followed last months trend of an increase. Last month saw the average sales price of a home in Maricopa county increase by 2.8%! The month of October showed an increase in the average sales price from $205,686 to $211,537; this is the highest average since November of 2010. Sellers should be careful

and continue to watch this trend as they are pricing homes in today’s market. Just because the average sales price has increased does not mean that sellers are automatically getting more for their homes – it could simply mean that homes are selling at a higher price because the lower

priced inventory has been dramatically reduced.

Buyers: For buyers, it is absolutely critical to be aware of this shift in the price of homes.

Just one year ago, the average sales price was $158,517. That means the average has increased over 33% in just one year! If that trend continued for another 12 months, the average price could be as high as $281,000 next year! As prices increase, buyers may find it more and more difficult to find a home that

is affordable. Interest rates remain low, so buyers still have the edge in financing options. More than ever, you need to work with your real estate professional to make sure you have the best possible

information regarding the market value of homes and to carefully monitor this trend to see how it will impact the availability, pricing, and terms associated with purchasing a home.


Ave

rage

Day

s on

Mar

ket

Prov

ided

by

Kel

ler W

illia

ms

Rea

lty P

rofe

ssio

nal P

artn

ers

– St

atis

tics

from

OC

TOB

ER 2

012

MLS


11/09$to$10/10$ 92$$ 95$$ 93$$ 100$$ 102$$ 101$$ 97$$ 99$$ 100$$ 102$$ 107$$ 104$$

11/10$to$10/11$ 106$$ 115$$ 112$$ 116$$ 114$$ 109$$ 105$$ 106$$ 98$$ 98$$ 94$$ 92$$

11/11$to$10/12$ 89$$ 95$$ 90$$ 91$$ 91$$ 86$$ 83$$ 73$$ 71$$ 67$$ 66$$ 68$$

Nov$

Dec$

Jan$ Feb$ Mar$

Apr$

May$

June$July$

Aug$ Sep$ Oct$

$60$$

$70$$

$80$$

$90$$

$100$$

$110$$

$120$$

Average$Days$on$Market$(36$month$overview)$

11/09$to$10/10$

11/10$to$10/11$

11/11$to$10/12$


Average Days on Market:

Sellers: Since March, we have seen the average time a home remains on the market decrease.

October saw this number increase slightly by an average of 2 days to an average of 68 days on the market for homes that sold last month. Considering we were at 139 days a few years ago, there is no doubt the current market is having an impact on how quickly homes are selling.

Well-priced homes continue to go under contract within a very short period of time. If a home isn’t selling in today’s market, there is no doubt that it is because

buyers see the price as being too high.

Buyers Buyers beware! When inventory remains on the market for fewer days, it means that sellers

are continuing to have more success selling their homes. The lower the number, the less control a buyer normally has. The decrease in this number means that sellers are having great success

in finding buyers who are saying “yes” in today’s market. Buyers need to be aware that competition for great homes continues to remain very high, especially in the lower price ranges.

The importance of having a reliable lender AND real estate professional to guide you through this process has never been more important.


Ave

rage

Lis

t to

Sal

es P

rice

Rat

io

Prov

ided

by

Kel

ler W

illia

ms

Rea

lty P

rofe

ssio

nal P

artn

ers

– St

atis

tics

from

OC

TOB

ER 2

012

MLS


11/09$to$10/10$ 96.80%$ 95.96%$ 95.46%$ 95.50%$ 97.17%$ 97.01%$ 96.16%$ 96.00%$ 95.72%$ 96.13%$ 95.45%$ 95.49%$

11/10$to$10/11$ 95.78%$ 94.40%$ 95.05%$ 95.18%$ 95.18%$ 95.58%$ 96.03%$ 96.60%$ 96.60%$ 96.60%$ 98.10%$ 96.68%$

11/11$to$10/12$ 96.77%$ 96.15%$ 96.56%$ 96.92%$ 95.60%$ 96.70%$ 97.24%$ 97.93%$ 97.19%$ 97.98%$ 98.64%$ 98.04%$

Nov$

Dec$

Jan$

Feb$

Mar$

Apr$

May$

June$

July$

Aug$ Sep$Oct$

94.00%$

94.50%$

95.00%$

95.50%$

96.00%$

96.50%$

97.00%$

97.50%$

98.00%$

98.50%$

99.00%$

Average'List'to'Sales'Price'Ra2o'(36'month'overview)'

11/09$to$10/10$

11/10$to$10/11$

11/11$to$10/12$


List to Sales Price Ratio Analysis:

Sellers: From March to June, we saw this ratio steadily increasing and then a drop in July. August saw this number rebound --

September saw it significantly increase and and become the highest number in the 36-month reporting period –- to 98.64%. October saw the number dip just slightly to 98.04%. This is the ratio a seller receives when selling his/her home as compared to the price where the home was. The higher the number, the closer the final sales price is to the listing price. With the competitive nature of the market, this ratio still remains very high, and in homes priced under

$150,000, we are seeing this ratio remain ABOVE 100% -- that means buyers in those price ranges, on average, are paying MORE for a house than the list price of the home. Continue to watch this trend, as it will continue to impact how

homes should be priced in the current market in order to appeal to the buyers.

Buyers: Buyers need to pay attention. As this average remains very close to 100%, on lower priced/highly desirable properties,

buyers are discovering more and more in the lower price ranges that they may have to pay above list price AND they are competing with investors who are bringing cash to the transaction. Since a home must appraise in order to obtain a loan,

underwriters are still looking very closely at prices and making sure that homes are selling at or below market value. This could mean that investors have an advantage if they are willing to pay higher than the list price.

Make sure your real estate professional helps you understand the competitiveness of the list price of the home you are wanting to purchase. You also need to be aware of the interest and sales activity in the area where you are wanting to

buy and how the offer you are making competes with the market AND with trends relative to the price where homes are selling in the areas you have an interest.


Mon

thly

Exp

ired

& C

ance

lled

List

ings

Pr

ovid

ed b

y K

elle

r Will

iam

s R

ealty

Pro

fess

iona

l Par

tner

s –

Stat

istic

s fr

om O

CTO

BER

201

2 M

LS


11/09$to$10/10$ 3,361$$ 4,533$$ 3,532$$ 3,235$$ 4,139$$ 3,413$$ 3,951$$ 4,603$$ 4,167$$ 4,311$$ 4,323$$ 4,311$$

11/10$to$10/11$ 3,697$$ 4,701$$ 4,046$$ 3,407$$ 4,180$$ 3,488$$ 3,468$$ 3,233$$ 2,484$$ 2,358$$ 2,089$$ 1,936$$

11/11$to$10/12$ 1,957$$ 2,407$$ 1,876$$ 1,698$$ 1,868$$ 1,713$$ 1,997$$ 1,788$$ 1,787$$ 1,848$$ 1,709$$ 1,935$$

Nov$ Dec$

Jan$

Feb$

Mar$

Apr$

May$

June$

July$ Aug$

Sep$ Oct$

$1,000$$

$1,500$$

$2,000$$

$2,500$$

$3,000$$

$3,500$$

$4,000$$

$4,500$$

$5,000$$

Monthly(Expired(and(Cancelled(Lis5ngs((36(month(overview)(

11/09$to$10/10$

11/10$to$10/11$

11/11$to$10/12$


Expired & Cancelled Listing Analysis:

Sellers: This statistic has remained fairly constant over the past 12 months.

October saw the number of expired and cancelled listings increase by 13.2% -- that is 1,935 homes leaving the market without being sold. The lower this number, the better sellers are in succeeding in selling their homes.

Sellers should remain very focused on monitoring their local market to ensure that they are pricing homes and offering terms that are appealing to buyers.

Buyers: For buyers, be aware that there are 1,935 fewer homes to consider.

At a time when inventory continues to shrink, this means an even tighter market for buyers. Buyers can expect more competition and less room for negotiation

on price and/or concessions from sellers. A shrinking market means that savvy buyers will understand that they need to be prepared to act quickly on available homes and now that the ability to get a “deal” on this inventory is more than likely not an option.

Continue to watch this trend, as this, combined with price, days on market, and list to sales price ratio are an important indicator of what buyers need to do

in order to be successful in closing on the home of their dreams.


Inventory Overview:


New

Lis

tin

gs

Prov

ided

by

Kel

ler W

illia

ms

Rea

lty P

rofe

ssio

nal P

artn

ers

– St

atis

tics

from

OC

TOB

ER 2

012

MLS


11/09$to$10/10$ 9315$ 8830$ 11382$ 11037$ 12684$ 11861$ 10036$ 10669$ 10744$ 11255$ 11116$ 10726$

11/10$to$10/11$ 9716$ 8363$ 10887$ 9436$ 10843$ 9586$ 9109$ 9179$ 8227$ 9002$ 8504$ 8593$

11/11$to$10/12$ 7590$ 6485$ 8745$ 7789$ 8334$ 7975$ 8092$ 8200$ 7693$ 8277$ 7821$ 8637$

Nov$

Dec$

Jan$

Feb$

Mar$

Apr$ May$

June$

July$

Aug$

Sep$

Oct$

6000$

7000$

8000$

9000$

10000$

11000$

12000$

13000$

New$Lis(ngs$(by$month)$

11/09$to$10/10$

11/10$to$10/11$

11/11$to$10/12$


New Listings Analysis:

Sellers: Sellers need to pay attention! The month of October saw 8,637 new homes enter the market, an increase of 10.4% over the month of September. This does not follow the pattern of the past 2

years. Sellers should monitor this new inventory to see how it might impact the sale of their home – more competition COULD mean prices and terms may need to become more competitive,

especially in certain price ranges. In this great market, it is even more important that sellers need to make sure they remain as the top choice for active buyers in the marketplace.

If your home is not selling in this aggressive market, it is more than likely a pricing issue – buyers are still looking for the best value possible.

Buyers: Buyers pay attention! October brought you 8,637 more options! This is potentially good news as

buyers continue to submit multiple offers on available inventory. More than ever, it is essential that you take advantage of this new inventory. Spend time with and listen to your real estate

professional to develop your strategy for succeeding in a market that is constantly changing.


Act

ive

List

ings

Pr

ovid

ed b

y K

elle

r Will

iam

s R

ealty

Pro

fess

iona

l Par

tner

s –

Stat

istic

s fr

om O

CTO

BER

201

2 M

LS

Nov$ Dec$ Jan$ Feb$ Mar$ Apr$ May$ Jun$ Jul$ Aug$ Sep$ Oct$

11/09$to$10/10$ 33,962$$ 33,460$$ 34,906$$ 35,114$$ 34,426$$ 32,728$$ 32,970$$ 34,224$$ 36,097$$ 37,754$$ 38,838$$ 39,176$$

11/10$to$10/11$ 38,876$$ 37,159$$ 36,299$$ 34,991$$ 32,485$$ 29,785$$ 23,477$$ 17,816$$ 19,941$$ 22,864$$ 19,467$$ 19,781$$

11/11$to$10/12$ 22,773$$ 18,378$$ 17,581$$ 13,268$$ 11,310$$ 10,196$$ 9,785$$ 9,946$$ 10,482$$ 11,118$$ 12,300$$ 13,704$$

Nov$

Dec$Jan$

Feb$

Mar$Apr$ May$ Jun$

Jul$Aug$

Sep$Oct$

$8,000$$

$13,000$$

$18,000$$

$23,000$$

$28,000$$

$33,000$$

$38,000$$

Ac#ve&Lis#ngs&in&ARMLS&(36&month&Summary&:&Residen#al&in&ARMLS)&

11/09$to$10/10$

11/10$to$10/11$

11/11$to$10/12$


Active Listings Analysis:

Sellers: In October, the number of active listings for sale increased by 1,404 homes when compared to the

month of September – a total of 13,704 active listings in Maricopa County. This is the highest number we have seen since January of 2012. Sellers need to make sure that they continue to watch this trend -- we have seen a steady increase in inventory, meaning that sellers will have

more competition in today’s market. Using a real estate consultant is essential to determine how homes should be priced in order to be competitive AND the terms that will need to be available

for prospective buyers in order to take advantage of this market.

Buyers: The current market means that buyers continue to have more homes to consider than in prior months. Continue to monitor this statistic, as it WILL be the statistic that indicates how much

inventory you will have to preview and how quickly you will need to act … the lower the number, the more likely the competitiveness for lower priced homes will remain part of the current market. As always, market activity is local and should be researched with your real estate professional to

determine the activity and desirability of the homes that are of interest to you.


Mon

ths

of I

nve

nto

ry

Prov

ided

by

Kel

ler W

illia

ms

Rea

lty P

rofe

ssio

nal P

artn

ers

– St

atis

tics

from

OC

TOB

ER 2

012

MLS

Nov$ Dec$ Jan$ Feb$ Mar$ Apr$ May$ Jun$ Jul$ Aug$ Sep$ Oct$

11/09$to$10/10$ 5.10$ 5.01$ 5.99$ 6.08$ 4.37$ 4.07$ 4.06$ 4.18$ 5.72$ 5.75$ 6.50$ 6.70$

11/10$to$10/11$ 6.51$ 5.01$ 6.30$ 5.54$ 3.75$ 3.60$ 2.70$ 1.80$ 2.62$ 2.94$ 2.71$ 2.93$

11/11$to$10/12$ 3.55$ 2.62$ 3.08$ 2.06$ 1.44$ 1.37$ 1.30$ 1.29$ 1.66$ 1.66$ 2.12$ 2.20$

Nov$

Dec$

Jan$

Feb$

Mar$ Apr$ May$ Jun$

Jul$ Aug$ Sep$

Oct$

1.00$

2.50$

4.00$

5.50$

7.00$

Months'of'inventory'(36'month'overview)'

11/09$to$10/10$

11/10$to$10/11$

11/11$to$10/12$


Months of Inventory Analysis:

Sellers: October saw a 3.8% increase in the months of housing inventory. We ended the month with 2.2 months –

the highest this number has been since January of 2012. This statistic means, that on average, we continue to remain in a strong “seller’s market” that is identified when this statistic reflects less than 5 months

of inventory. However, this increase should be monitored very carefully. Although this traditionally means that sellers will have more control in a sales transaction than the buyer, it is essential that you are meeting with

your real estate professional to determine the ACTUAL market in your area. You may find that you have more or less control than the average.

Buyers: Buyers will want to monitor this as well, as it indicates that inventory has increased, but still falls into

a strong sellers market. A seller’s market traditionally gives less control to buyers and can create significant competition for the current inventory. The current low inventory is resulting in homes selling

more quickly, at a higher price, and with fewer concessions for buyers. However, the type of market will vary from price range to price range and even area to area. Work with your real estate professional

to make sure you understand the type of market you are in.


Total Market Overview:

Sellers: This report provides a detailed breakdown of homes in Maricopa County

based on price … by determining the price range where your home SHOULD sell, you can see what the average list to sales price ratio is, the average days on market, and more importantly, the percentage of

homes selling in that price range. Note that as the price increases, so does the days on market AND the list to sales price ratio decreases.

You will also see a lower percentage of homes selling as the price increases.

Buyers: By reviewing the price range where you are purchasing, you can determine

what the average home is selling for vs. list price. This should help you make better and more acceptable offers

based on the current market.


Tota

l Mar

ket

Ove

rvie

w

Prov

ided

by

Kel

ler W

illia

ms

Rea

lty P

rofe

ssio

nal P

artn

ers

– St

atis

tics

from

OC

TOB

ER 2

012

MLS


Sum

mar

y C

omm

ents

Pr

ovid

ed b

y K

elle

r Will

iam

s R

ealty

Pro

fess

iona

l Par

tner

s –

Stat

istic

s fr

om O

CTO

BER

201

2 M

LS

IMPORTANT

INFORMATION:

Although these reports are beneficial in understanding the general market in Maricopa County, it is essential that you meet with

your real estate professional to study these same figures in your area, as statistics will vary from neighborhood to neighborhood.

As you make decisions related to the purchase or sale of a home, it is important that you understand how the current real estate trends will impact your decisions. Your real estate professional is available to help

you monitor and interpret them to make sure that you are taking advantage of the current market whether you are selling OR buying.


To ensure that you receive these market updates on a regular basis, please contact your

real estate professional or contact Susan Kraemer at (623) 229-6167

market watch october 2012

Real Estate