marketing at low tide econorthwest [autosaved] · marketing at low tide. presentation assembled and...
TRANSCRIPT
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Marketing at Low Tide
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presentation assembled and given by Allison Tivnon, Marketing Director at [email protected] | 503-200-5066
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GRESHAM NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE ANALYSIS | 3
Single-Family Affordability, 2014
STRUCTURE TYPE:Single-Family Homes and Owned Condominiums and Townhouses
INCOME:4 person householdMFI: $69,400
AFFORDABILITY:Affordable: Housing Costs=30% or less of gross family incomeDown Payment: 20%Mortgage: 30-year amortizing principal interestInterest Rate: 4.17%
Property Tax Change Ratio: 64%Property Tax Rate: $18 per $1,000Insurance: Sales Price/1,000 * 03.5Utilities: $250 per month
GEOGRAPHYPortland Urban Growth Boundary (UGB)CALCULATION: Percent of MFI spent on Housing=Yearly Housing Costs [Mortgage Payment + Monthly Utilities]+Property Tax+Home Insurance] / MFI
Gresham’s single-family housing stock is relatively affordable.
Single-family home affordability is based on a number of factors in addition to the actual sales price for a home. These factors include the household’s income, the down payment required, and current interest rates. The map shows the percent of a household’s income spent on housing for a household earning the region’s median family income of $69,400. Areas shaded in green are considered affordable for these households.
Gresham and east Portland are the most affordable areas in the region for single-family housing. In most Gresham neighborhoods, the average cost of owning a single-family home requires a family making the regional median family income to spend less than 25 percent of gross income on housing. These price points will be attractive to many who cannot afford to purchase a home in more expensive parts of the region.
ASSUMPTIONS
26
I-5
I-5
I-205
I-205
I-84
DivisionPowell
217
GRESHAM
PORTLANDHILLSBORO
BEAVERTON
WILSONVILLE
Source: ECONorthwest, Metro RLIS, US Department of Housing and Urban Development
Single Family Affordability, 2014
Percent of Income Spent on HousingFor a Family Earning $69,400
Insufficient Transactions
11% - 20%
20.1% - 25%
25.1% - 30%
30.1% - 40%
40.1% - 50%
50.1% - 160%
Less Affordable
More Affordable
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What We Do
5
• Transportation System Plans• Comprehensive Planning• Transit-Oriented Development• Redevelopment• Equity Studies• Market and Feasibility Analysis• Affordable Housing Strategies• Economic Impact Studies• Value Pricing
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What We Do
6
We study how people use things and figure out how they
could use them better.
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Economic Outlook and Recession
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What are Recessions?
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Recession Statistics
9
• Last recession ended in June 2009• Since World War II:
• Average recession lasts 11.1 months• Average period of expansion lasts 58.4 months• Minimum Expansion: 12 months• Maximum Expansion: 120 months
• Current expansion: 117 months
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
$18,000
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Billi
ons
of C
hain
ed 2
009
Dol
lars
U.S. Recession Real GDP, Seasonally Adjusted
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3745
39
24
106
36
58
91
120
73
110
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Nov- 48Oct-45
Jul-53Oct-49
Aug-57May-54
Apr-60Apr-58
Dec-69Feb-61
Nov-73Nov-70
Jan-80Mar-75
Jul-90Dec-82
Mar-01'Mar-91
Dec-07Nov-01
Aug-18Jul-09
Will be longest on record by July
2019
2nd Longest Economic Expansion in History
114
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3.3
3.0
2.52.2
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Annual Average Job GrowthPortland U.S. Average
YTD
Job Growth is Slowing the Portland Metro Area
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Economists believe risk of recession is increasing
56% surveyed believe recession will start in 2020
26% surveyed believe recession will start in 2021
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Economists believe risk of recession is increasing
56% surveyed believe recession will start in 2020
26% surveyed believe recession will start in 2021
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3 Recession Indicators
14
The Natural Rate of UnemploymentFederal Interest RateStock Market Volatility and Decline
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0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Unem
ploy
men
t Rat
e
U.S. Recession Natural Rate of Unem., Not Seasonally Adjusted Civilian Unem. Rate, Seasonally Adjusted
Natural Rate of Unemployment
15
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Federal Interest Rate
16
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50
250
1,250
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
S&P
500,
Clo
sing
Pric
e
U.S. Recession S&P 500 Close Price
Stock Market drops 15%
17
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Economists believe risk of recession is increasing
56% surveyed believe recession will start in 2020
26% surveyed believe recession will start in 2021
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Economists believe risk of recession is increasing
56% surveyed believe recession will start in 2020
26% surveyed believe recession will start in 2021
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Remembering ‘08
20
• Housing markets collapse across the country –new construction grinds to a halt
• Major financial institutions fail (Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers). Stock markets plunge
• Household debt rises dramatically, spending slows significantly
• Massive layoffs in the industry trades• Rising unemployment and foreclosures • Tax bases shrink
Public and Private sector growth stalls
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Remembering ’08 in the A/E/C industry
21
• RFPs slow to a trickle• Contracts were cancelled• On-calls stopped producing new work• Public agencies started keeping as much work
in-house as possible
A/E/C firms feel the effect and begin cost-saving measures.
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Remembering ’08 in the A/E/C industry
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Source: Quantifying the impact of the Great Recession on the AEC industry—a call to reevaluate home office overhead costs. International Journal of Construction Education and Research · May 2018
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Remembering ’08 in the A/E/C industry
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Source: Quantifying the impact of the Great Recession on the AEC industry—a call to reevaluate home office overhead costs. International Journal of Construction Education and Research · May 2018
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Remembering ’08 in the A/E/C industry
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Source: Quantifying the impact of the Great Recession on the AEC industry—a call to reevaluate home office overhead costs. International Journal of Construction Education and Research · May 2018
OMG
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WHY?
25
Why do firms dependent on B2B business development sacrifice their business development staff?
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WHY?
26
Because they forget that they are a brand firstand a service provider second.
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Understanding SOV
27
“Share of Voice”
The amount of Marketing capital you spend versus your competitors
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Understanding SOM
28
“Share of Market”
The portion of a market controlled by a company (brand)
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SOV-SOM Phenomena
29
When a brand’s share of voice is greater than its share of market, it is likely to grow its market share
in the coming year. Therefore, companies that increase their marketing investment when most others are cutting back have an opportunity to
substantially improve the standing of their brands.
For more insight: https://www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/news/2009/budgeting-for-the-upturn-does-share-of-voice-matter.html
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WHY?
30
So again, why do firms dependent on B2B business development sacrifice their
business development staff?
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Gutcheck
31
Because Marketing Directors and their staff haven’t demonstrated that they’re standing
guard and prepared to pivot.
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Gutcheck
32
Company leadership lack of faith that Marketing Directors really know what
they’re doing.
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Gutcheck
33
Because our Marketing and BD Departments lack of agility and pivotal motion.
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When it’s all this…
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RFP
RFP
RFP RFP
RFPRFP
RFPRFP
RFPRFP
RFP
RFPRFP RFP
RFPRFP
RFP RFP RFPRFP
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There’s none of this.
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Marketing Functions
40
Economic Growth Cycle
ProposalsTeaming Partner MeetingsStaff TrainingIndustry ResearchPrivate WorkPublic WorkMarket ExpansionNew OfficesWebsite RedesignConference Attendance and Session Submittals
Economic Downturn
ProposalsTeaming Partner AuditsStaff TrainingIndustry ResearchPrivate WorkPublic Work Market StabilizationOffice ConsolidationWebsite RefinementsConference Attendance and Session Submittals
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Marketing Functions
41
Economic Downturn
Staff – Personal Brand MentoringInternal Style Guide RefinementsProcess DocumentationCompetitor AnalysesNew Marketplace DevelopmentBillable work – Editing, report layout, writing
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Worst-case scenario-broken department
42
Marketing Director
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Still broken
43
Marketing Director
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Optimal scenario
44
Marketing Director
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In a downturn – be prepared for billable
45
Marketing Director
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Marketing at Low Tide
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What to do now
47
Marketing and BD Directors:
Reinvigorate your leadership role!
Show your firm that you are out in front of this. That your head is in the game.
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What Must Be Done Now
48
Marketing Coordinators:
Support your Marketing and BD Directors!
Build in time at check-in meetings to ask how you can help advance strategic research and
report backs.
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What Must Be Done Now
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• Marketing Check-Up Checklist(Are RFPs corroding your agility?)
• Marketing Staff Assessment (Is your team crossed-trained and ready to pivot?)
• Reinvigorate Quarterly Report Backs (Are you acting as the sentinel you signed on to be?)
• Historical Analysis of Past Recession(Can’t know where you’re going till you know where you’ve been.)
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Quarterly Report Backs
50
Compile a ‘marketing flyover’ once per quarter that covers (at a minimum):• Proposals (#, P/S, $ amounts, and win-loss from
previous Q)• Website Traffic• Earned Media• Glassdoor• Special projects• Upcoming presentations• Sponsored events• Conferences
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Historical Analysis – Past Recession at Your Firm
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(Can’t know where you’re going till you know where you’ve been.)
Pull data for 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010 and calc:• # of proposals each year• Fluctuations in priming versus subbing• Public versus private• Dollar averages (and note the outliers)• RFP/RFQ/Sole Source
And most important: Type of Work
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What Must Be Done Now
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• Marketing Check-Up Checklist(Are RFPs corroding your agility?)
• Marketing Staff Assessment (Is your team crossed-trained and ready to pivot?)
• Reinvigorate Quarterly Report Backs (Are you acting as the sentinel you signed on to be?)
• Historical Analysis of Past Recession(Can’t know where you’re going till you know where you’ve been.)
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1: Know Your FlowAnticipate peak proposal times and plan around them.
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1: Know Your FlowAnticipate peak proposal times and plan around them.
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2: Creating the Essential CalendarPerspective is Power
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3: It Takes a VillageAllocate your time and get buy-in from your team.
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Proposals25%
Billable25%
Marketing Admin40%
Online Communication
10%
Proposal Coordinator
Proposals25%
Billable25%
Management5%
Branding30%
Collateral15%
Marketing Coordinator
Proposals20%
Corporate40%
Business Development
40%
Marketing Director
‘RELEASE VALVES’
Intern Rotation• Spring• Summer • Fall
Independent Contractors • Layout• Editing• Proposals
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4: The Critical Value of InternsGet constantly shifting tasks done once and for all.
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• Resume updates and formatting in Word and InDesign templates
• Marketing quals consolidation
• Google analytics
• Proofreading
• Research:
• Upcoming conferences and events
• LinkedIn staff audits
• Social Media Audits
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5: Tighten Up Lead Tracking
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6: The Client SurveyA free and (somewhat) painless way to really know what’s what.
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7: Rethink Your Online PresenceAre you creating a return or just following the pack?
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“Audit” – an official inspection of an individual's or organization's accounts, typically by an independent body.
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8: Marketing BudgetSeize control of your expenditures
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Whether you’re given a set number or not—you’re spending. And probably more than you need to.
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9: Say it Loud and ProudSet the expectation through transparency
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WALL CALENDAR ‘KANBAN’ BOARD
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10: Retreat!Take charge of the year in front of you.
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• Rent a room at the library
• Brainstorm your agenda each week for one month prior –let everyone have a say
• Share agenda with your CEO and Principals
• Day of, set your Out-of-Office, bring markers, poster paper, note pads, plenty of food and beverages, and your energy. Turn off your phones or better yet, don’t bring them!
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What Must Be Done Now
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• Marketing Check-Up Checklist(Are RFPs corroding your agility?)
• Marketing Staff Assessment (Is your team crossed-trained and ready to pivot?)
• Reinvigorate Quarterly Report Backs (Are you acting as the sentinel you signed on to be?)
• Historical Analysis of Past Recession(Can’t know where you’re going till you know where you’ve been.)
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“A recession can be a blessing, as it is much easier to spot a strong company without
the noise of a strong economy.”
Andrew Beattie. Industries that Thrive on Recession. Investopedia, 2018
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Thank you!