MOR 451: Mastering Decision Making

Fall 2016Tuesdays and Thursdays 12:00-1:50 PM

Professor: Dr. Cheryl Wakslak Office: HOH 402 Cell Phone: (818) 732-9764E-mail: wakslak@marshall.usc.edu

Lecture ClassTuesday/Thursday 12:00-1:50 PM Room: JFF 240

Office Hours: Tuesdays, 2:00-3:00 PM. If this time does not work, please email, call, or text to set up another time!

Introduction and Course Objective

Over the last thirty years, psychologists and economists have joined forces to study how people process information and make choices, rather than how they would make decisions if they were fully rational and selfish. This course is devoted to understanding the nature, causes, and consequences of such deviations from “optimal” choice. Throughout, our goal will be to leverage insights from this growing area of scholarship (dubbed “behavioral economics” or “judgment and decision making”) to enhance your ability to make decisions – right now and in the future, as you move into leadership positions in the business world. We will develop frameworks for keeping biases in check, for understanding when to rely on intuition and when not to, and for improving your ability to generate excellent alternatives and make decisions you can stand behind proudly. Finally, along the way you will learn how to conduct simple research projects to improve organizational decision processes, e.g., to serve effectively on a team of consultants tasked with analyzing and improving organizational decision-making.

Learning Objectives

This course is designed to help you leverage an understanding of how people make decisions to improve the quality of your decisions in your personal life and in the organizations with which you are and will be affiliated.

At the end of this course, you will be able to:

Recognize classic decision-making biases and strategies Demonstrate an understanding of the interplay between individual decision-making, group

dynamics, and organizational settings Apply psychological insights about decision making to organizational contexts Evaluate and design interventions aimed at improving or otherwise influencing people’s

decision making and behavior

Plan simple organizational research projects to improve organizational decision processes or address social policy considerations

Prerequisites: None.

Course Notes and Required Materials: Class information and the majority of course readings are available through yellowdig.com. We will be using three Harvard Business School cases, which must be purchased as a course reader through the bookstore. There is no required textbook. Class slides will be posted after lecture sessions. If for any reason you have a strong need for class slides before lecture sessions, please contact me directly.

Class Policies:

Laptops and Cell Phones: Laptops are discouraged, but not banned. Cell phones are not permitted in class.

Absences: When you are absent, the class can’t benefit from your comments and insights on the material, and this will of course hurt your class participation grade. If you are absent, you should arrange beforehand with a classmate to take notes and pick up any assignments or handouts.

Late Arrivals: Please arrive on time to avoid disrupting the class. Email Correspondence: I am often, but not always, on email. Therefore, to make sure that you get

any information you need well before deadlines, please email me at least 24 hours before you need an answer, want to set up a meeting, etc.

Relation to Marshall Learning Goals:

In this class, emphasis will be placed on the USC Marshall School of Business learning goals as follows:

Goal DescriptionCourse Emphasis

1Our graduates will understand types of markets and key business areas and their interaction to effectively manage different types of enterprises

Low

2

Our graduates will develop a global business perspective. They will understand how local, regional, and international markets, and economic, social and cultural issues impact business decisions so as to anticipate new opportunities in any marketplace

Low

3Our graduates will demonstrate critical thinking skills so as to become future-oriented decision makers, problem solvers and innovators

High

4Our graduates will develop people and leadership skills to promote their effectiveness as business managers and leaders.

High

5Our graduates will demonstrate ethical reasoning skills, understand social, civic, and professional responsibilities and aspire to add value to society

Moderate

6Our graduates will be effective communicators to facilitate information flow in organizational, social, and intercultural contexts.

High

Grading Summary:

Components % of Grade

Open-Reading Quizzes 15%

Short Assignments 20% Midterm 25%

Final Project (due at time of scheduled final exam) 30%

Participation 10%

TOTAL 100%

ASSIGNMENTS AND GRADING DETAIL

Open-Reading Quizzes. I expect you to come to class prepared for discussion, by having read that day’s required reading. There is no textbook required for this class. Instead, readings consist of 1-3 general interest articles per session, and may sometimes include a podcast or television episode that I would like you to listen to or watch. To incentivize timely reading, I will require you to complete a brief “reading quiz” before each session. These quizzes will consist of a small number of questions that ask you for factual information contained in the readings. They can be completed “open-reading,” i.e., with the reading right in front of you. If you read the articles, you should be able to easily earn 100% on this grading component.

Short Writing Assignments (20%). Individual writing assignments will be assigned 4 times throughout the semester; each assignment is therefore worth 5% of your grade. These assignments are designed to get you thinking seriously about the course topics. The tentative schedule for these assignments is listed in the course schedule included in this syllabus. Papers are due at the start of the class session. Papers will lose 1 point on the grading scale (see next paragraph) for every day they are late. For truly extenuating circumstances, please contact me directly. If for some reason you must miss class, you must submit your assignment electronically before it is due. Papers have a strict 750 word limit. Please print the word count at the end of the assignment. All papers should be double spaced with 1” margins and 12 point font. Papers will be graded on a 7-point scale. The endpoints will be used sparingly, with 7 reflecting an extraordinary response and 1 an unacceptable one. Most of the grades will be in the middle of the scale (3, 4, 5). In general, these assignments do not have one correct answer. Use this as an opportunity to escape the perceived need of giving the professor what you think she wants, and instead give the professor what you think. I am looking for you to demonstrate understanding, but more, to reveal insight and creativity. Be specific; deeply develop your core point; and don’t waste time regurgitating the reading. Most importantly, be realistic: ask yourself how willing you would be to sit in a manager’s office advocating the use of your recommendation.

Midterm (25%). The midterm will be on Thursday October 6th. It will contain a mix of multiple-choice and short answer questions.

Final Project (30%). The final project has two components: a 10-page paper and a 10-15 minute presentation. The presentations take place during the last few class period and the paper is due on the day of the scheduled final exam. Again, being trapped under a heavy object is the only excuse

for late papers unless prior arrangement has been made with the instructor. There are three project options:

Option 1: Business Proposal: Describe an original business idea that capitalizes on one or more of the phenomena discussed in the course. Your paper and presentation should clearly outline the proposal and argue for why it should be effective. Provide a brief review of past research relevant to the phenomena and cite any research that would support the viability and potential of your new venture. .Option 2: Study a Case of Biased Managerial Decision-Making: Identify and research a real, unwise managerial decision that was made due to one of the biased decision processes covered in this course. Your paper and presentation should describe the managerial setting in detail, what judgment errors were made, as well as evidence supporting the offered interpretation. Summarize past research on the relevant judgmental error and suggest strategies that might have been used to prevent the error, citing appropriate research to support your recommendations. Option 3: Design an Intervention to Solve an Organizational Problem: Develop a proposed behavioral intervention to solve a problem at a particular organization and develop an argument for why your proposal should be implemented. The idea is to use the insights of the course to solve a real problem. For example, an organizational problem of interest might be high rates of absenteeism in a specific facility. A behavioral intervention might involve mailings to workers emphasizing low absenteeism rates among their peers. Put together a compelling proposal to convince management at the company to implement your intervention and detailing both how to deploy it and how to measure its effectiveness. Describe in detail the managerial setting, the problem to be addressed, the proposed intervention and the research that gave rise to it, and methods proposed for evaluating the intervention’s effectiveness.

You have the option of completing this project solo or in groups of up to 4. If you elect to do the project with a group, the group will turn in a single paper and make a single presentation, with each member of the group receiving the same grade.

Notes: I recommend meeting with me to discuss your individual or group project well before it is due, so I can provide any input that might be helpful. Also, as concerns the grading of the oral delivery portion of your final project, I will not penalize people for language difficulties when their first language is other than English.

Participation (10%). The class will be a more fun and engaging experience to the degree that students participate in creating a dynamic classroom environment. You are expected to speak up during class and make a contribution to the discussion. If you are uncomfortable with class participation, please let me know at the beginning of the term and I will work with you to help you overcome this barrier. Overall, my goal is to have a lively and widespread discussion; it is not important that every contribution you make is correct; what is important is that it is thought-out, provocative, and engaging.

Half of the participation points will be more formally awarded based upon your participation in our online forum, yellowdig.com. You must post to our shared website five times throughout the semester. At least one of these must consist of pinning or attaching a relevant article or video and explaining why it is relevant. We will discuss these posts during class time as well. You can also comment on something we discussed in class or ask a related question, comment on someone else’s post, etc. “Liking” your own or other students’ posts is great, but alas will not count as a formal contribution.

MARSHALL GUIDELINES

Add/Drop Process

In compliance with USC and Marshall’s policies classes are open enrollment (R-clearance) through the third week of class. However, if you miss any classes, please talk to me about how much work you have missed before you register. If you don’t attend the first two class meetings and do not get in touch with me, I can drop you from the class.

Returning Coursework:

Coursework will be returned or available for pickup by students (in the case of Final Projects). Returned paperwork, unclaimed by a student, will be discarded after 4 weeks and will therefore not be available should a grade appeal be pursued following receipt of his/her grade. It is students’ responsibility to file and retain returned coursework.

Technology Policy

This is a course where in-class computer use is unnecessary and will only serve as distraction. No cellphone use in class, please. If you need technology support because of a learning issue, please contact me at the very beginning of the semester.

Statement for Students with Disabilities:

Any student requesting academic accommodations based on a disability is required to register with Disability Services and Programs (DSP) each semester. A letter of verification for approved accommodations can be obtained from DSP. Please be sure the letter is delivered to me as early in the semester as possible. DSP is located in STU 301 and is open 8:30 a.m.–5:00 p.m., Monday through Friday. The phone number for DSP is (213) 740-0776.

Statement on Academic Integrity:

USC seeks to maintain an optimal learning environment. General principles of academic honesty include the concept of respect for the intellectual property of others, the expectation that individual work will be submitted unless otherwise allowed by an instructor, and the obligations both to protect one’s own academic work from misuse by others as well as to avoid using another’s work as one’s own. All students are expected to understand and abide by these principles. SCampus, the Student Guidebook, contains the Student Conduct Code in Section 11.00, while the recommended sanctions are located in Appendix A. http://www.usc.edu/dept/publications/SCAMPUS/gov/

Students will be referred to the Office of Student Judicial Affairs and Community Standards for further review, should there be any suspicion of academic dishonesty. The Review process can be found at: http://www.usc.edu/student-affairs/SJACS/ Failure to adhere to the academic conduct standards set forth by these guidelines and our programs will not be tolerated by the USC Marshall community and can lead to dismissal.

Class Notes Policy

Notes or recordings made by students based on a university class or lecture may only be made for purposes of individual or group study, or for other non-commercial purposes that reasonably arise from the student’s membership in the class or attendance at the university. This restriction also applies to any information distributed, disseminated or in any way displayed for use in relationship to the class, whether obtained in class, via email or otherwise on the Internet, or via any other

medium. Actions in violation of this policy constitute a violation of the Student Conduct Code, and may subject an individual or entity to university discipline and/or legal proceedings.

No recording and copyright notice.  No student may record any lecture, class discussion or meeting with me without my prior express written permission.  The word “record” or the act of recording includes, but is not limited to, any and all means by which sound or visual images can be stored, duplicated or retransmitted whether by an electro-mechanical, analog, digital, wire, electronic or other device or any other means of signal encoding.  I reserve all rights, including copyright, to my lectures, course syllabi and related materials, including summaries, PowerPoints, prior exams, answer keys, and all supplementary course materials available to the students enrolled in my class whether posted on Blackboard or otherwise.  They may not be reproduced, distributed, copied, or disseminated in any media or in any form, including but not limited to all course note-sharing websites.  Exceptions are made for students who have made prior arrangements with   DSP and me.  

Emergency Preparedness/Course Continuity:

In case of an emergency in which travel to campus is difficult, USC executive leadership will announce an electronic way for instructors to teach students in their residence halls or homes using a combination of Blackboard, teleconferencing, and other technologies. In addition, you may be assigned a "Plan B" project that can be completed at a distance.

Incomplete Grades:

An incomplete (IN) grade may be assigned due to an “emergency” that occurs after the 12 th week of classes. An “emergency” is defined as a serious documented illness, or an unforeseen situation that is beyond the student’s control, that prevents a student from completing the semester. Prior to the 12th week, the student still has the option of dropping the class. Arrangements for completing an IN course should be initiated by the student, and negotiated with the instructor. Class work to complete the course should be completed within one calendar year from the date the IN was assigned. The IN mark will be converted to an F grade should the course not be completed.

CLASS SESSIONS OVERVIEW

# Date Topic Readings/Assignments Due

1 Tues 8/23 Introduction Read: Brooks (2011)

2 Thurs 8/25 Heuristics and Biases 1 Read: Gawande (1999)

3 Tues 8/30 Heuristics and Biases 2 Read: Gladwell (2003)

4 Thurs 9/1 Overconfidence & Self-Serving Biases Read: Gladwell (2009);Wallace (2005);Williams (2012)

5 Tues 9/6 Expectancies and Memory Read: Chase & Dasu (2001)Watch: Community, Season 2, Episode 3

6 Thurs 9/8 Prospect Theory Read: Surowiecki (2016)Due: Homework 1 (overconfidence)

7 Tues 9/13 Want/Should Conflicts Read: Cassidy (2006); Perry (1996)

8 Thurs 9/15 Commitment Devices & Choice over Time Read: Leiber (2010); Trope, Liberman, & Wakslak (2006)

9 Tues 9/20 Social Norms and Conformity Prepare: OPOWER case

10 Thurs 9/22 Fairness and Cooperation Listen to: Planet Money podcastDue: Homework 2 (commitment devices)

11 Tues 9/27 Mental Accounting Read: Lowenstein (2001)

12 Thurs 9/29 Cognitive Dissonance, Escalation Read: Tavris & Aronson (2007)

13 Tues 10/4 Midterm Prep Session --

14 Thurs 10/6 Midterm --

15 Tues 10/11 Doing Experiments Prepare: Green Bank of the Philippines Case

16 Thurs 10/13 Doing Experiments 2 Read: Stone (2015), Ju (2016). Try out: whichtestwon.com/case-studies/

17 Tues 10/18 Influence Read: Cialdini (2001)

18 Thurs 10/20 Making tradeoffs Read: Zetlin (2014); Osnos (1997)

19 Tues 10/25 IN-CLASS GROUP-PROJECT WORK --

20 Thurs 10/27 Enhancing Creativity Read: Grossman (1997); Brown (2008)Due: Homework 3 (choice sets)

21 Tues 11/1 Bounded Ethicality Read: Barron (2013)

22 Thurs 11/3 General Well-Being Read: Melton (2012), Porter (2012)Read/Watch: Izenberg, J. (2014)

23 Tues 11/8 Group Decision Making Prepare: Challenger Case.

24 Thurs 11/10 Intuition vs. Analysis Read: Hayashi (2001); Gladwell (2005); Guszcza (2008); Kilgannon (2013)

25 Tues 11/15 Improving Org Decision Making 1 Read: Thaler & Sunstein (2003); Loewenstein & Ubel (2010)

26 Thurs 11/17 Improving Org Decision Making 2 Read: Krakauer (1996); Heath, Larrick, & Klayman (1998); Kahneman et al (2011)Due: Homework 4 (Into Thin Air)

27 Tues 11/22 Improving Org Decision Making 3 Keeney (1992)

Thurs 11/24 THANKSGIVING No class

28 Tues 11/29 Presentations --

29 Thurs 12/1 Presentations, Wrap-Up Munger (1995)Final projects due at time of scheduled final exam

DETAILED SESSION INFORMATION

Reminders: Materials will be posted to yellowdig.com. Cases are available as part of the course reader. Adequate preparation for class includes reading all assigned readings before that session’s class meeting and completing the open-reading quiz for each class. These open-reading quizzes will together count for 10% of your course grade.

Class 1: Introduction (August 23, 2016) Brooks, D. (October 20, 2011). Who you are. The New York Times.

Class 2: Heuristics and Biases 1 (August 25, 2016) Gawande, A. (1999). The cancer cluster myth. The New Yorker, February 8, 1999.

Class 3: Heuristics and Biases 2 (August 29, 2016) Gladwell, M. (March 10, 2003). Connecting the dots: The paradoxes of intelligence reform.

The New Yorker.

Class 4: Overconfidence and Self-serving Biases (September 1, 2016) Gladwell, M. (July 27, 2009.). Cocksure: Banks, battles, and the psychology of

overconfidence. The New Yorker. Wallace, D. F. (2005). Commencement address given at Kenyon College. Williams, A. (Nov 30, 2012). Saying no to college. The New York Times.

Class 5: Expectancies and Memory (September 6, 2016) Chase, R. B. & Dasu, S. (June, 2001). Want to perfect your company’s service? Use

behavioral science. Harvard Business Review, 79-84. Watch: Community, Season 2, Episode 3

Class 6: Prospect Theory (September 8, 2016) Surowiecki, J. (June 6, 2016). Losers! The more Trump emphasizes loss, the more voters may

take a risk on him to get it back. The New Yorker. Retrieved July 20, 2016, from http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/06/06/losers-for-trump

Class 7: Want/Should Conflicts (September 13, 2016) Cassidy, J. (September 18, 2006). Mind games: What neuroeconomics tells us about money

and the brain. The New Yorker. Perry, J. (February 23, 1996). How to procrastinate and still get things done. Retrieved

September 7, 2016, from http://chronicle.com/article/How-to-ProcrastinateStill/93959/

Class 8: Commitment Devices and Choice over Time (September 15, 2016) Leiber, R. (August 13, 2010). Your card has been declined, just as you wanted. New York

Times. Trope, Y., Liberman, N., & Wakslak, C. (2007). Construal levels and psychological distance:

Effects on representation, prediction, evaluation, and behavior. Journal of Consumer Psychology, 17, 83-95.

Class 9: Social Norms and Conformity (September 20, 2016) Cuddy, A.C. & Doherty, K.T. (2010). OPOWER: Increasing Energy Efficiency through

Normative Influence. Harvard Business School Press: Cambridge, MA.

Class 10: Fairness and Cooperation (September 27, 2016) Listen to the following Planet Money podcast (August 28, 2015):

http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/08/28/435583328/episode-647-hard-work-is-irrelevant

Class 11: Mental Accounting (September 29, 2016) Lowenstein, R. (2001, February 11). Exuberance is rational. The New York Times Magazine.

Class 12: Cognitive Dissonance, Escalation (September 29, 2016) Tavris, C. and Aronson, E. (2007). Mistakes Were Made (but not by me): Why We Justify

Foolish Beliefs, Bad Decisions, and Hurtful Acts. Harcourt Books: USA. Introduction & Chapter 1.

Class 13: Midterm Prep Session (October 4, 2016)

Class 14: MIDTERM (October 6, 2016)

Class 15: Field Experimentation (October 11, 2016) Ashraf, N., Karlan, D., Yin, W., & Shotland, M. (2010). Evaluating Microsavings Programs:

Green Bank of the Philippines. Harvard Business School Press: Cambridge, MA.

Class 16: Field Experimentation 2 (October 13, 2016) Stone, K. (November 4, 2015). A/B and see: A beginner’s guide to A/B testing. Retrieved July

21, 2016 from http://blog.invisionapp.com/ab-testing-beginners-guide/. Ju, S. (March 22, 2016). An anti-cookbook approach to A/B testing. Retrieved July 21, 2016

from https://blog.crazyegg.com/author/eggsperts/. Try out: https://www.whichtestwon.com/case-studies/

This site collects a bunch of A/B test examples – try guessing which won for at least two campaigns, and be prepared to describe in class!

Further Optional Reading:

Watch a presentation by Kelly Uphoff (Netflix Director of Experimentation and Algorithm for Growth and Targeting):https://ieondemand.com/presentations/quasi-experimentation-at-netflix-beyond-a-b-testing

Overgoor, J. (May 27, 2014). Experiments at Airbnb. Retrieved July 21, 2016 from http://nerds.airbnb.com/experiments-at-airbnb/.

Class 17: Influence (October 18, 2016) ** Class exercise; please wear comfortable shoes! ** Cialdini, R.B. (2001) Harnessing the Science of Persuasion, Harvard Business Review, October

2001

Class 18: Making Tradeoffs (October 20, 2016) Zetlin, M. (Februrary 11, 2014). Automated tip amounts: How to regain control. Retrieved July

21, 2016 from http://www.foxbusiness.com/features/2014/01/21/automated-tip-amounts-how-to-regain-control.html

Osnos, E. (1997, September 27). Too many choices? Firms cut back on new products. Philadelphia Inquirer, D1–D7.

Class 19: IN-CLASS TIME TO WORK ON FINAL PROJECTS (October 25, 2016)

Class 20: Enhancing Creativity (October 27, 2016) Grossman, J. (1997, May). Jump start your business. Inc. Magazine, 19. Brown, T. (2008). Design Thinking. Harvard Business Review.

Class 21: (Bounded) Ethicality (November 1, 2016) Barron, J. (2013, March 6). On campus, costly target of brazen thefts: Nutella. New York

Times.

Class 22: General Well-Being (November 3, 2013) Melton, G. (January 4, 2012). 2011 Lesson #2: Don’t Carpe Diem, Momastery. Retrieved

January 5, 2012, from http://momastery.com/blog/2012/01/04/2011-lesson-2-dont-carpe-diem/ Izenberg, J. (2014, April 1). ‘Slomo.’ New York Times. Porter, C. (March 16, 2012). Shelagh was Here — An Ordinary, Magical Life. Retrieved

August 17, 2015, from https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2012/03/16/shelagh_was_here_an_ordinary_magical_life.html

Class 23: Group Decision Making (November 8, 2016) Edmondson, A.C. & Feldman, L.R. (2002). Group Process in the Challenger Launch Decision

(A). Harvard Business School Press: Cambridge, MA.

Class 24: Intuition versus Analysis (November 10, 2016) Hayashi, A. M. (2001) When to trust your gut, Harvard Business Review, 79, 58-65. Gladwell, M. (2005). Blink: The power of thinking without thinking (pp. 147-188). New York,

NY: Time Warner. Guszcza, J. (2008, Jul/Aug). Analyzing analytics: The debate. Contingencies. Kilgannon, C. (October 14, 2013). A High School is Actually Not Manhattan’s Saddest Spot, a

Researcher Says. Nytimes.com. Retrieved January 28, 2014, from http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/10/14/a-high-school-is-actually-not-manhattans-saddest-spot-a-researcher-says/?smid=fb-share.

Class 25: Improving Decision Making 1 (November 15, 2016) Thaler, R. and C. Sunstein (2003). Libertarian paternalism. American Economic Review, 93(2),

175-179. Loewensein, G., & Ubel, P. (2010, July 14). Economics behaving badly. The New York Times.

Class 26: Improving Decision Making 2 (November 17, 2016) Krakauer, J. (1996, September). Into thin air. Outside magazine. Kahneman, D., Lovallo, D., & Sibony, O. (2011). Before you make that big decision. Harvard

Business Review. Heath, C., Larrick, R. P., & Klayman, J. (1998). Cognitive repairs: How organizational

practices can compensate for individual shortcomings. Research in Organizational Behavior 20, 1-37.

Optional: Pfeffer, J. & Sutton, R. I. (2006). Management half-truths and nonsense: How to practice

evidence-based management. California Management Review, 43, 77-100.

Class 26: Improving Decision Making 3 (November 22, 2016) Keeney, R. L. (1992). Creativity in decision-making with value-focused thinking. Sloan

Management Review, 35, 33-41.

Thanksgiving Break, No Class (November 24, 2016)

Class 28: Presentations (November 29, 2016)

Class 29: Presentations, Wrap-Up (December 1, 2016) Munger, C. T. (1995). A lesson on elementary, worldly wisdom as it relates to management &

business. Outstanding Investor Digest, 1, 49-63.

Short Homework Assignments

HW1 (Due Thursday 9/8)Research by many supports the view of overconfidence as a bias and a decision trap. Consider, in contrast, the following:

“You can't connect the dots looking forward you can only connect them looking backwards. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future. You have to trust in something: your gut, destiny, life, karma, whatever. Because believing that the dots will connect down the road will give you the confidence to follow your heart, even when it leads you off the well-worn path.”

Steve Jobs (1955 - 2011), Stanford Commencement Address, 2005How do you reconcile Steve Jobs’ statement with research on overconfidence? Are there times in ones career where overconfidence is more or less helpful/harmful? Are there jobs or occupations where you think overconfidence is most helpful (or least harmful)? Are there jobs or occupations where overconfidence is most harmful?

HW2 (Due Tuesday 9/22)People often fail to live up to their good intentions. Commitment devices are one strategy that people may use to deal with this problem. Briefly describe the general idea of a commitment device and then address ONE of the following:

1. A timely example of a behavior people may want to do, but not actually do, is voting. Imagine you are interested in increasing voter turnout in your community. Devise a commitment-device strategy and explain how you would use this strategy to have an impact on voter-turnout.

2. Self-improvement is a major business market. We talked in class about examples of products and services that incorporate a commitment-device component. Come up with a NOVEL product or service that leverages this idea. Describe the product, the need it fills, and why it would make you money.

HW3 (Due Thursday 10/20)You are convinced you have a wonderful idea to implement in your organization and would like to present this to your manager. But, you vaguely remember from a decision-making class you once took in college that people’s preferences can be shaped by the choices they are presented with in predictable ways. Can you use these ideas about choice to increase the attractiveness of your idea? Describe two specific things you can do to increase your idea’s attractiveness to your manager.

HW4 (Due Thursday 11/19)Read Into Thin Air and answer all of the following questions (although feel free to focus on some more than others): 1. What are the defining characteristics of the decision-making environment on Mt. Everest?  Setting aside the extreme physiological conditions, what are the biggest challenges for good decision making? 2. Describe the decision process used by Hall and Fischer. What mistakes did the guides or members of the climbing teams make during the climb to the summit?  Why were these mistakes made?  How do these mistakes relate to concepts we have discussed in the course? 3. Like climbers on Everest, managers face unexpected business problems and need to avoid disaster. Distill one lesson from Into Thin Air that you think best captures what managers can learn from this tragedy. Summarize this into a single slogan or motto, and explain what this means and how it derives from the Everest tragedy.