martenson gold silver meeting madrid 20111
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Unfixable
Welcome to the new abnormal
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hrisMartenson
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hrisMartenson
THE NEXT 20 YEARS ARE
GOING TO BECOMPLETELY UNLIKE THELAST TWENTY YEARS
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Investing Made Impossible...
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The Three Es
Economy Energy
Environment
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How Economists See the World
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What isMoney?
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All Money
is Loanedinto
Existence
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All money is loanedinto existence.
Key Concept
$
DEBT
Perpetual growth is arequirement
of modern banking.
Key Concept
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Implicit Assumptions...
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Whats the implicit assumption?
1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Source: Ned Davis Research http://www.safehaven.com/article-5995.htm
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
US DEBT TO GDP320300
280
260
240220
200
180
160
140
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A Global Phenomenon
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EconomyMust Grow
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Exponential
Growth
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-7000 -6000 -5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 2100
A Hockey Stick Chart
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Exponential
Growth
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-7000 -6000 -5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 2100
The Power of Exponential Growth
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Santiago Bernabeu Stadium
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At what time would it still be97% empty?
12:45
If we began at 12:00, when wouldthe stadium be filled?
12:50
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-7000 -6000 -5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 2100-7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1000 2000
Billions
Years
Population
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ChrisMartenson
1800 1900 2000
Production
Oil
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ChrisMartenson
Water Use
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Fisheries
Exploited
Forest Loss
SpeciesExtinction
http://www.newscientist.com/data/images/ns/cms/mg20026786.000/mg20026786.000-1_1701.jpg
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ChrisMartenson
Exponential charts areeverywhere.
Economy. Energy. Environment.
Key Concept
Speeding up!
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ChrisMartenson
A Little Less Confusing...
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Problems
Vs.
Predicaments
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ChrisMartenson
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Energy
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ChrisMartenson
US Oil Production & Dependency
ImportsThe Peak
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ChrisMartenson
A Discovery Peak
BillionsofB
arrels
World Oil Discovery by Decade
1964
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ChrisMartenson
Oil Past (conventional) Peak Already
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Quantity
Is An Issue!
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Oil Exponentials
1800 1900 2000
Production Oil Shock I
Oil Shock II
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ChrisMartenson Surplus energy
available to society
Energy used to get energyThe Energy Cliff - Oil
Oil in 1930100:1
Oil in 197025:1
Oil in 199018:1 to 10:1
Oil today?3:1?
1(Energy Out) (Energy In)
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The Reality
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ChrisMartenson
The Worry
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Quality
Is An Issue!
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ChrisMartenson
Must Grow Cant Grow
Quantity & Quality:Equally important!
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Environment
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ChrisMartenson
Copper Nugget
Copper Ore 10%
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Copper Mining - Bingham Canyon Mine, Utah
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Depletion In View
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Resource Extraction Profile
EnergyCost $
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ChrisMartenson
Must Grow Cant Grow
Quantity & Quality;equally important !
Depleting
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ChrisMartenson
Must Grow Cant Grow
Depleting
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ChrisMartenson
The Contest....
Vs.
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ChrisMartenson
Our Money System is Poorly Designed
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Problem orPredicament?
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Deepwater Horizon
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The Global Financial System
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Fixable
or
Not?!
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Still Not Easy, But Doable...
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