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Presentation at CCAFS - FAO Workshop on NAMAs: national mitigation planning and implementation in agriculture 16 - 17 July 2012TRANSCRIPT
ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL
EVALUATION OF NATIONAL GHG
MITIGATION OPTIONS FOR
AGRICULTURAL LANDSCAPES IN
EAST AFRICA
Moses Masiga - ENR Africa Associates
CCAFS/FAO Expert Workshop on NAMAs: National mitigation planning and implementation in agriculture, Rome, Italy 16-17 July 2012
CCAFS/ENRAfricaAssociates
OUTLINE
1. Introduction
2. Methodology: Data sources & Analytical Approaches;
3. National Scenarios – Agricultural Sector Model
4. Current stage of study
CCAFS/ENRAfricaAssociates
INTRODUCTION
The study contributes (CCAFS) Pro-poor Climate Change
Mitigation: to identify climate change mitigation strategies
that reduce poverty among the rural poor in developing
countries.
Balancing the need for precise and accurate information with
realistic expectations for the effort and expense that can be
dedicated to monitoring, reporting and verification costs.
Compatibility with national goals for food security, economic
development and trade i.e. sustainable food production &
tangible benefits to farmers
Work taking place in Kenya, Uganda and Ethiopia CCAFS/ENRAfricaAssociates
RESEARCH QUESTIONS
1. Scenarios - What practices, more than others, enhance GHG
mitigation in agricultural landscapes and contribute to current
and future national economic development?
2. Costs - Which agricultural GHG options are more cost-
effective, per unit area or livestock of investment in GHG
mitigation, than others, including the projected baseline
scenario?
3. Social/ economic efficiency - What agricultural greenhouse
mitigation options provide increased economic efficiency,
based on SROI, and NPV at national level, above a projected
baseline scenario?
4. Stakeholder benefit - What combinations of actions, actors
and regulatory arrangements lead to a higher value of benefits
being captured at sub-national & national level than others,
including projected baseline scenario? CCAFS/ENRAfricaAssociates
Overall Instrument design
• Scenario analysis compares a projected baseline scenario
against technically feasible agricultural landscape GHG
mitigation practices (2020 & 2030);
• Cost-effectiveness analysis for mitigation options;
• Social Return on investment (and Net present value) for
technically feasible options;
• Value/Supply Chain Analysis for GHG mitigation options;
• Agricultural Sector Strategy/model for GHG mitigation
versus national economy.
CCAFS/ENRAfricaAssociates
Emerging mitigation options
Kenya & Uganda Ethiopia (Climate Resilient Growth)
Crop & soil management
•Sustainable agriculture land
management;
•Nutrient management
(fertilisers);
•Tillage & residue
management;
•Agroforestry;
Soil nutrient and crop management
•Tillage/residue management
•Watershed-based integrated farming
•Agroforestry?
Yield increasing techniques
•Improved seeds
•Irrigation
•Organic and inorganic fertiliser
Livestock and grazing land
management
•Grazing intensity –
intensification and reduced
herd size (productivity)
•Rangeland & pastureland
mgt
Livestock and grazing land
management
•Enhancing and intensification of
animal mix diversification
•Value chain efficiency improvements
•Rangeland and pastureland
management CCAFS/ENRAfricaAssociates
Data sources
Databases: Ministry of Agriculture; Livestock
Development; KARI & Ministry of Environment & MD;
NEMA (Kenya); Ministry of Agriculture & Rural
Development; Environment Protection Agency (Ethiopia);
Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry & Fisheries; CCU;
NEMA; MWE (Uganda); Statistical bureaus
Review of available information on measurement of
mitigation potential of agricultural practices (CGIAR, &
others), limited awareness & low confidence in monitoring
of agricultural interventions has limited progress of
agriculture in climate change policy & emissions offset
markets. CCAFS/ENRAfricaAssociates
The Social Return on Investment
Steps Status
Establishing scope; Identify stakeholders;
Involve stakeholders (farmer groups, different farming
systems, stakeholder differences)
Completed
Reporting on scope; Identify inputs; Determine value
of inputs; Identify outputs; Identify outcomes from
GHG options ; Potential financing options or
mechanisms
Started
Establish indicators to outcomes; Collect data on
outcomes; Establish impact time of outcomes;
Valuation of outcomes
Phase II (2012/July-
December)
Attribute & Establishing impact of mitigation option;
preliminary SROI & NPV estimates
(2012/July-
December)
Completing other components of the study 2013 Jan - June CCAFS/ENRAfricaAssociates
1. Projected scenarios
Scenario analysis based on quasi-experimental design
A projected baseline scenario as the control.
Alternative scenarios one or a combination of
feasible/viable adjustments in agricultural landscape
GHG mitigation practice.
Using a farming systems, based on regional approach
(where a typical farming unit – soils, inputs, outputs and
policy environment can be characterised for dynamic
scenario building using mathematical programming)
CCAFS/ENRAfricaAssociates
Livelihood Zones of Kenya
CCAFS/ENRAfricaAssociates
Value chain Analysis: Feasible value chains for managing
GHG in agricultural landscapes
CCAFS/ENRAfricaAssociates
Flows inward and outward
Production
planning:
(actors,
supporting
legal/institu
tional
framework
Production:
Labour,
capital, land
and other
inputs &
costs
Inputs:
acquisition
and
extraction:
source (local
or otherwise),
unit cost
Sale: food,
timber,
wood fuel,
carbon
credits
Use: Local
& after sale
use: food,
timber,
wood fuel,
carbon
credits
End
of
life
Recycling feedback
Integrating GHG mitigation into Agricultural Sector
Strategy
1. Describe potential mitigation options/ strategies will be defined. These strategies include crop and livestock production options.
2. Data will be needed on GHG emission levels for all feasible mitigation strategies – Brown et al. 2011; and current study.
3. Agricultural activities will need to be made compatible to mitigation strategies e.g. nitrous oxide mitigation through reduced fertilization.
4. Mathematical structure of the ASM model will need to be modified. This will involve setting up GHG emission & sink accounting equations, validation of baseline emissions & baseline cropping/livestock management practices, and building a GHG policy modules (Schneider and McCarl (2003).
5. Preliminary analysis of policy scenarios e.g. desired tax or subsidy levels, markets for GHG emissions, and monitoring and verification.
CCAFS/ENRAfricaAssociates
What we expect to achieve?
Through publication, stakeholder engagement, capacity building events:
1. Show scenarios of GHG mitigation for agricultural landscapes
2. Show the cost effectiveness of GHG mitigation in agricultural landscapes in East Africa
3. Show the social/economic efficiency of GHG mitigation in agricultural landscapes – SROI & NPV;
4. Show the potential contributions/benefits of stakeholders to the process;
5. Propose national policy framework/model for public policy interventions in the agricultural sector for GHG mitigation
Current Study Technical Team
1. Eric Mungatana University of Pretoria
2. Alex Alusa Prime Minister’s Office – Kenya
3. Assan N’gombe UNDP – East and Southern
Africa
4. Paul Isabirye Climate Change Unit – Uganda
5. Alice Ruhweza Independent/ Technical Editing
6. E. Wollenberg CCAFS
7. Tadesse Woldemariam
Gole
Research team
8. Michael Gachanja Research team
9. Moses Masiga Research team CCAFS/ENRAfricaAssociates
THANKS...
CCAFS/ENRAfricaAssociates