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Master Narratives & Global Climate Change Charlie Vars Dave Bella Court Smith IPCC January 29, 2013

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Why so much debate?

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(WG I) assesses the physical scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change (WG II) assesses the vulnerability of socio- economic and natural systems to climate change (WG III) assesses options for mitigating climate change and for activities that remove greenhouse gasses from the atmosphere IPCC Working Groups

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Working Group I (Stockholm, Sweden) 23-26 September 2013 Working Group II (Yokohama, Japan) 25-29 March 2014 Working Group III (Berlin, Germany) 7-11 April 2014 Synthesis Report (Copenhagen, Denmark) 27-31 October 2014 The Working Group Reports and Synthesis Report 2013/2014. 2007

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Chapter 1 : Introduction 2-4: Observations: Atmosphere and Surface, Ocean, Cryosphere ( Ice) 5: Information from Paleoclimate Archives 6: Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles 7: Clouds and Aerosols 8: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing 9: Evaluation of Climate Models 10: Detection and Attribution : Global to Regional 11: Near-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability 12: Long-term Climate Change: Projections and Irreversibility 13: Sea Level Change 14: Climate Phenomena and Future Regional Climate Change WG I - IPCC Science Outline

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SK-II IPCC WG I Science IPCC WG II Impact Socioeconomic IPCC WG III Policy & Action Options

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Observed impacts, with detection and attribution Projected integrated climate change impacts, regional variation by scenario and time slice Assessing impacts, vulnerabilities, and risks, key drivers (including extremes) Alternative development pathways, multiple interacting stresses, uncertainty, valuation of impacts and adaptation Adaptation and managing risks, practical experiences, lessons learned, barriers, observed and expected limits to adaptation, avoiding maladaptation, planned and autonomous adaptation, potential and residual impacts, thresholds and irreversible changes WG II - IPCC Impact Assessment Themes

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I. INTRODUCTION Historical, current and future trends II. FRAMING ISSUES 2. Integrated Risk and Uncertainty Assessment of Climate Change Response policies, uncertainty and risk 3. Social, Economic and Ethical Concepts and Methods 4. Sustainable III. PATHWAYS FOR MITIGATING CLIMATE CHANGE 5. Drivers, Trends and Mitigation - Co-benefits, tradeoffs, geoengineering 6. Assessing Transformation Pathways macroeconomy, technology portfolios 7. Energy Systems 8. Transport 9. Buildings 10. Industry 11. Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) 12. Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Spatial Planning IV. ASSESSMENT OF POLICIES, INSTITUTIONS AND FINANCE WG III - IPCC Policy Outline