master of science in administration - capstone project (final)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

CAMPAIGN SPENDING: AN EXAMINATION OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF

USING PROFESSIONAL POLITICAL CONSULTANTS IN CAMPAIGN STRATEGY

By Laudmila Al-Ayoubi

Professional political consulting has come to dominate American politics in the

modern campaign era. Consultants have adapted to and mastered new technology; thus

giving them the ability to replace traditional mechanisms of political organizing and

develop specialties within the field. As a result, candidates running for office have come

to rely on their guidance and expertise, which has catalyzed an enormous increase in

campaign spending. In an effort to uphold civic and fiscal responsibility, this study

measured and analyzed the efficiency and effectiveness of employing political

consultants in campaign management.

Reported expenditures on consultants in 18 pivotal congressional races from the 2006

elections were examined. The results showed that there was a slight prevalence toward

winning elections when more was spent on consultant activities. However, data also

illustrated a distinct winning strategy for allocating financial resources, as well as

identified a winning threshold for campaign spending. The researcher recommended that

successful campaign management could be facilitated by 1) focusing consultant

expenditures on media consultants and pollsters and 2) limiting total consultant spending

to no more than $500,000 over the total consulting budget of the competing campaign.

CAMPAIGN SPENDING: AN EXAMINATION OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF

USING PROFESSIONAL POLITICAL CONSULTANTS IN CAMPAIGN STRATEGY

MSA 685 Project Report

Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of Requirements for the Degree of

Master of Science in Administration (Concentration in Public Administration)

by Laudmila C. Al-Ayoubi

Project Instructor Dr. Beverly Jones

November 2007

iii

TABLE OF CONTENTS

LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................. vi

LIST OF FIGURES .......................................................................................................... vii

CHAPTER I: DEFINITION OF THE PROBLEM .............................................................1

Background of the Problem ............................................................................................1

Purpose of the Study .......................................................................................................5

Statement of the Problem ................................................................................................5

Research Questions/Objectives ......................................................................................6

Limitations .....................................................................................................................6

Assumptions ...................................................................................................................8

Definition of Terms........................................................................................................8

Summary ......................................................................................................................12

CHAPTER II: LITERATURE REVIEW ..........................................................................13

Introduction ..................................................................................................................13

Review .........................................................................................................................13

Definition of a Political Consultant .......................................................................13

Professional Political Consulting as an Emerging Industry ...................................15

Political Consulting Effects on Campaign Management .......................................18

Prevalence of Media in Political Strategy ..............................................................21

Integrity of Democracy in a Consultant-Driven Environment ..............................24

Summary ......................................................................................................................26

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CHAPTER III: METHODOLOGY ...................................................................................27

Introduction ..................................................................................................................27

Research .......................................................................................................................27

Sample Population .......................................................................................................27

Data Collection ............................................................................................................28

Validity and Reliability ................................................................................................29

Data Analysis ...............................................................................................................30

Presentation of Data .....................................................................................................30

Summary ......................................................................................................................30

CHAPTER IV: DATA ANALYSIS ..................................................................................31

Introduction ..................................................................................................................31

Findings by Election Results .......................................................................................31

Findings by Consulting Category ................................................................................35

Media Consulting ...................................................................................................38

Direct-Mail Consulting ..........................................................................................39

Telecommunications Consulting ...........................................................................41

Public Relations Consulting ...................................................................................42

Fundraising Consulting ..........................................................................................44

General Consulting ................................................................................................45

Miscellaneous Consulting ......................................................................................46

Summary ......................................................................................................................48

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CHAPTER V: SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMENDATIONS .................49

Summary ......................................................................................................................49

Conclusions ..................................................................................................................50

Recommendations ........................................................................................................51

REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................53

vi

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1. Statistics for Election Results ..............................................................................32

Table 2. Winner Frequency Table for Total Spent ............................................................34

Table 3. Quantity of Consultants and Consulting Firms Hired .........................................35

Table 4. Subtotals by Consulting Category by Priority .....................................................36

Table 5. Statistics for Media Consulting ............................................................................38

Table 6. Statistics for Direct-Mail Consulting ...................................................................40

Table 7. Statistics for Telecommunications Consulting ....................................................41

Table 8. Statistics for Public Relations Consulting ...........................................................43

Table 9. Statistics for Fundraising Consulting ...................................................................44

Table 10. Statistics for General Consulting .......................................................................45

Table 11. Statistics for Miscellaneous Consulting .............................................................46

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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1. Candidates Total Spending Pattern ....................................................................32

Figure 2. Winner Differential Spending Pattern ................................................................34

Figure 3. Candidate Hiring Pattern of Consultants ............................................................35

Figure 4. Percentage of Consulting Budget Used per Category Excluding Media ...........37

Figure 5. Percentage of Consulting Budget Used Toward Media v. Other Categories .....37

Figure 6. Comparison of Individual Race Rate of Outspending for Winners ...................38

Figure 7. Candidate Spending Pattern on Media Consultants ...........................................39

Figure 8. Candidate Spending Pattern on Direct-Mail Consultants ...................................40

Figure 9. Spending Pattern on Telecommunications Consultants .....................................42

Figure 10. Spending Pattern on Public Relations Consultants. .........................................43

Figure 11. Spending Pattern on Fundraising Consultants ..................................................44

Figure 12. Spending Pattern on General Consultants .......................................................45

Figure 13. Spending Pattern on Miscellaneous Consultants ..............................................47

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CHAPTER I: DEFINITION OF THE PROBLEM

Background of the Problem.

In the United States (U.S.) there are over 50,000 public elections held each year; add

to that the multitude of private leadership campaigns in business, labor and academic

sectors, as well as the mass of public votes on local and state-wide referenda, ballot

initiatives and constitutional amendments, and the tally reaches more than 500,000

elections annually (American Association of Political Consultants [AAPC], 2007). This

statistic illustrates that the democratic process, where citizens have the right to choose

political representation and participate in government decisions, is pervasive in American

society. As a result, campaigning, or the process of helping candidates win elections, has

become a lucrative and expansive business.

Traditionally, political campaigns were orchestrated by local party leaders, fueled by

armies of volunteers and the candidate’s network of friends and family (Shea & Burton,

2006). Face-to-face canvassing and the distribution of printed material were the primary

methods used in strategy implementation (p. 6). These traditional mechanisms tended to

have low costs due to their reliance on free labor customarily associated with political

party and grassroots organizing (Kolodny & Dulio, 2003).

On the contrary, candidates today have to deal with the astronomical costs associated

with modern campaign mechanisms. This reality was evident during the 2006 election

cycle, when republicans and democrats raised and spent a record $1.1 billion dollars

during a non-presidential election year (Federal Election Commission [FEC], 2007).

This amount is robust in its own right, but is even more astonishing due to the absence of

a national race.

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Many political scientists attribute the rising costs of the modern campaign to advances

in technology. Access to mass communication via television, radio and the internet;

higher accuracy and versatility in public opinion polls; and computerized micro-targeting

of voters have all contributed to the modernization of political campaigns (Bergo,

September 2006b). Although utilizing technical methods in campaigning is advantageous

in reaching more voters, the drawback is in paying those few individuals who possess the

necessary skills to carry them out.

The methods employed by the modern campaign are highly specialized and require

hiring professional individuals to perform technical services. As is the norm with any

industry that reaches a certain level of sophistication, those who adapt to its mastery will

reap the financial rewards. Thus, the advent of professional political consultants (also

know as political strategists or political professionals) and a significant increase in the

costs of campaign management.

A political consultant can be identified as a “professional campaign person who gives

advice and service in exchange for payment” (Medvic, 2003, p. 120). Nearly every

modern campaign retains the services of these individuals and the breadth of their

services is limitless; an issue of Campaigns & Elections Magazine lists more than 56

separate job categories of political consultants (AAPC, 2007).

Political consultants may provide general or specialized services, but are most likely

employed to provide guidance in the areas of campaign management, media advertising,

direct-mail, polling and fundraising (Medvic, 2003). Other, moderately engaged, service

categories include field (voter contact and Get-Out-The-Vote activities), finance

(compliance, accounting and FEC reporting), technology (website design and internet

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communication) and telecommunications (J. M. Weissler, personal communication,

October 30, 2007).

Political consulting, as an American industry, comprises hundreds of firms that

employ thousands of people. Annually, consultants are paid hundreds of millions of

dollars, “over $1.8 billion dollars were spent on over 600 professional consultants during

the 2004 elections” (Blake, 2006, p. 1). Political strategists have become so integral to

campaigns that they are “the greatest cost of most political campaigns for president, U.S.

Senate, many congressional and gubernatorial races” (Casselman, 2007, p. 1).

Most developing industries experiencing a successful boom will eventually plateau

after market saturation. However, there seems to be no foreseeable end to the continuing

growth in the political consulting industry. For instance, at the onset of the rapid increase

of political consultant usage, “45% of all congressional campaign spending in 1990 [$118

million], and 46% in 1992 [$248 million], passed through the hands of political

consultants” (Medvic, 2001, p. 2). In only two years, the industry gained an additional

$113 million dollars. By 2004, nearly 12 years later, the money going to these consultants

amounted to more than 50% of the total spent on campaigns (Bergo, September 2006b).

Over a decade had passed and the industry continued to gain an increasingly larger share

of the market.

Not only have consultants gained more of the political market share, but they have

contributed to the amount of campaign overspending. For example, there were 401 U.S.

House of Representative incumbents up for re-election during the 2004 elections; those

candidates “spent, on average, more than $1 million dollars per race, with 250

outspending opponents better than 10 to 1” (Adelman, 2006, p. 40). Incumbents have

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advantages over their opponents including name recognition, occupational experience

and superior fundraising capability. With that in mind, it seems extraneous that nearly

75% of incumbents were advised to outspend their opponents by such a large margin.

Even more astounding is that this amount was “11 times more than it cost in 1976,

when winning a House seat was only $87,000; over the same span of time the cost of

living only rose 3 times” (Blake, 2006, p. 1). Even after taking into account inflated costs

for supplies and services, the amount of resources expended still seems overzealous.

Hence, advances in technology and the onset of professional political consulting

explain why candidates spend a considerable amount of money in order to run an

effective and successful campaign. Although the research indicates that there is a

legitimate level of spending required to execute a modern campaign, it also shows a trend

toward superfluous campaign spending beyond what is necessary. This brings into

question whether consultants should be considered vital resources for professional

political campaigns or rather puppet masters who manipulate fearful candidates into

overspending in an effort to rake in more profit.

Regardless of which picture accurately describes the intentions of political consultants,

it is absolutely clear that political consulting has come to dominate American politics in

the modern era. This phenomenon is apparent in consultants’ ability to adapt to and

master new technology; thus giving them the ability to replace traditional mechanisms of

political organizing and develop specialties within the field (Friedenberg, 1997).

Perhaps merit can be found in the theory that in order to catalyst social change a

candidate must first win his or her election; thus, spending large sums of money is for the

greater good. Alternatively, money is a scarce and valuable resource; and to dispose of it

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value indiscriminately would be an injustice. In order to uphold the civic and fiscal

responsibility they have to their financial backers, candidates should strive to spend

money invested in campaigns in the most efficient way possible.

To facilitate this goal, an effort must made by political operatives and academia to

assess campaign spending strategy with regard to political consultant expenditures. An

immense amount of money is spent on political consulting. In order justify continuing

this investment, it is imperative that the efficiency and effectiveness of employing

consultant services be measured and analyzed.

Purpose of the Study

The purpose of this study was to:

Analyze the relationship between campaign expenditures on political consulting

services and winning elections.

Show the importance of investigating that relationship.

Enhance knowledge about which tools are most effective in campaign strategy

and determine how much money to expend on those tools.

Provide a guideline for alternative methods of campaign strategy that are less

gratuitous than the current standard.

Facilitate upholding the fiscal responsibility that candidates have to their financial

backers, thus maintaining the integrity of the political process by increasing the

social productivity of politicians and campaign staffers.

Statement of the Problem

Is there a correlation between heavy financial investment in professional political

consultants and winning elections?

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Research Questions/Objectives

The researcher hoped to answer the following questions:

How does a political operative measure the quality of political consultation?

How does a political operative determine if the desired outcome from political

consultation justifies the cost of said political consultation?

Limitations

The limitations for this research were as follows:

Only the 2006 congressional races were studied. Previous elections were not

studied, nor were other types of campaigns, including national, statewide and

local level races.

Among the 2006 congressional races, the researcher only considered those races

that were targeted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee

(DCCC). The researcher did not consider races that were targeted by the National

Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) because the needed information

was not publicly available.

Among the 2006 congressional races targeted by the DCCC, only the states that

had 20 or more electoral votes were analyzed; within each state that had 20 or

more electoral votes, only races where neither candidate received more than 53%

of the vote share were analyzed.

The researcher used Federal Election Commission (FEC) campaign expenditure

reports. Seeing that amendments are frequently filed to many FEC reports, only

the most recently filed pre and post general election spending reports were used.

The information in these reports only covered expenditures made after the

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primary through the end of the election. This time frame was important because it

represented the peak of campaign expenditure activity.

The researcher only examined line items dealing with political consulting activity

expenditures. Line items that dealt with other types of campaign expenditures

were not examined (i.e. staffing, campaign paraphernalia, office supplies, etc.)

Although it was mandatory for candidates to file expenditure reports, there was no

consistent procedure set by the FEC to code consultant type activities; therefore

the researcher was limited to her own definition and coding system. The

researcher was also unaware of political consulting expenditures that may have

resulted from 527 advocacy groups or state party committees. This was due to the

lack of reporting requirements on soft money independent expenditures, thus all

costs relating to political consultation may not have been represented.

The researcher was not able to account for the influence of external factors on the

rate of winning that were beyond the scope of the FEC expenditure reports. The

main uncontrollable variables were as follows:

o Political Climate (i.e. whether or not the district was heavily conservative,

liberal, or swing; percentage of straight-ticket voters; rate of Election Day

turnout; prevalence of absentee voting; etc.)

o Economic Condition (i.e. cost of living; cost of political services and

supplies; unemployment; type of funding for race (public or private);

growth in development; local industry; business and labor relations; etc.)

o Social Environment (i.e. impact of global, national and local current

events; and constituent demographics: familiarity with the political

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process, issues and candidate, race relations, education level, age, religion,

ethnic make-up, world philosophy, etc.)

o Candidate Characteristics and History (i.e. gender; ethnicity; age; physical

features; attractiveness; public speaking ability; intelligence; length of

residency; name recognition; personality; religious ties; sexual orientation;

marital status; incumbency; voting history; possible attachment to current

or past political scandal; personal wealth; etc.)

o Quality of overall campaign administrative operations.

Assumptions

The researcher assumed the following:

All researchable data used in this report, from publicly available books,

journals or electronic sources, were truthful and accurate.

Results of the 2006 congressional candidate winners were tabulated fairly,

precisely and posted to the internet in the same fashion.

Expenditure reports submitted by each candidate to the FEC were inclusive

and factual and were posted to the internet by the FEC without any alternation.

A targeted race was considered high priority and consequently both candidates

received an influx of financial resources resulting in comparable spending

capacity (Cillizza, 2006).

Definition of Terms

527 Groups: A type of American tax-exempt organization not

regulated by the Federal Election Commission or by a

state elections commission.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax-exempt_organization

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Election_Commission

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Campaign Expenditure

Report:

An account of election expenses incurred in promoting a

candidate's election required to be filed with the FEC.

Democratic

Congressional

Campaign Committee

(DCCC):

The official campaign arm of the Democrats in the

United States House of Representatives that is

responsible for identifying competitive congressional

seats and developing campaign strategy to maintain or

obtain democratic majority.

Direct-Mail Consulting

Expenditure:

Any reported FEC expenditure relating to direct-mail

consulting expenses, including but not limited to: mass-

mail or targeted-mail descriptors; and any other costs

paid to associated direct-mail consultants or firms.

Federal Election

Commission (FEC):

The federal agency that administers and enforces the

Federal Election Campaign Act (FECA) - the statute that

governs the financing of federal elections.

Fundraising Consulting

Expenditure:

Any FEC reported expenditure relating to direct-mail

consulting expenses, including but not limited to

fundraising descriptors and reimbursements for supplies

associated with fundraising consultants or firms.

General Consulting

Expenditure:

Any FEC reported expenditure relating to general


management, political or unidentified consultant

descriptors; strategy development; and any other costs

paid to associated general consultants or firms.

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Media Consulting

Expenditure:

Any FEC reported expenditure relating to media

consulting expenses, including but not limited to media

descriptors, media strategy or concept development;

buying advertising space from a company operating

media properties (media buys are directly tied to

consultant commission); production of associated

advertisement; and any other costs paid to associated

media consultants or firms. For the purposes of this

study, the scope of media properties included only

television and radio, and eliminated newspaper,

magazine and billboard ads.

Miscellaneous

Consulting

Expenditure:

Any FEC reported expenditure relating to miscellaneous


technology, field and accounting consultant descriptors;

all other various consulting descriptors and any other

costs paid to associated miscellaneous consultants or

firms.

Political Consultant: A person in the business of advising and assisting

political campaigns with strategy development in

exchange for a fee. Areas of involvement are limitless;

however, for the purposes of this study, services were

limited to media, direct mail, telecommunications, public

relations, fundraising, general and miscellaneous.

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Political Consulting

Activities:

Activities on expenditure reports from the FEC, which

included line items with any formation of the word

consultant in the description or in the paid to title; any

expense paid to an individual or organization otherwise

identified as a political consultant or political consulting

firm via internet website descriptions; any media, direct-

mail, telecommunications, public relation, fundraising,

general or miscellaneous items falling under respective

consulting expense definitions.

Political Consulting

Firm:

A firm of political experts providing professional advice

to an organization for a fee. For the purposes of this

study, the phrase consulting firm was interchangeable

with consulting agency.

Polls: Surveys designed to discover the attitudes and intended

or recalled behaviors of voters.

Public Relations

Consulting

Expenditure:

Any FEC reported expenditure relating to public

relations consulting expenses, including but not limited

to polling, research, survey or focus groups descriptors;

and any other costs paid to associated public relations

consultants or firms.

Targeted Congressional

Race:

A race that was perceived as valuable because of a swing

demographic identified by the DCCC, generally

receiving an influx of financial resource from supporters.

http://www.wordwebonline.com/en/FIRM

http://www.wordwebonline.com/en/EXPERT

http://www.wordwebonline.com/en/PROVIDE

http://www.wordwebonline.com/en/PROFESSIONAL

http://www.wordwebonline.com/en/ADVICE

http://www.wordwebonline.com/en/ORGANIZATION

http://www.wordwebonline.com/en/FEE

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Telecommunications

Consulting

Expenditure:

Any FEC reported expenditure relating to

telecommunications consulting expenses, including but

not limited to phonebank, mass telephone and targeted

telephone descriptors; and any other costs paid to

associated telecommunications consultants or firms.

Vote Share: In terms of total votes cast, a candidate’s vote share is

100 percent minus the percentage of votes received by

their opponent.

Summary

In this chapter, the researcher highlighted the background to the problem, provided the

purpose of the study and presented the statement of the problem. The researcher stated

limitations to the research, listed the assumptions of the intended data and sample

population and defined common terminology in the area of study. The researcher

adequately defined the problem and set the stage for the literature review.

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CHAPTER II: LITERATURE REVIEW

Introduction

The researcher found that studies in the area of political consulting over the last

decade focused on three major topics: 1) the classification and the evolution of campaign

professionalization; 2) the impact of professional political consulting and technology on

campaign management; and 3) the ethical dilemmas in the political consulting industry.

Review

The researcher organized the themes found in the literature into the following format:

Definition of a Political Consultant, Professional Political Consulting as an Emerging

Industry, Political Consulting Effects on Campaign Management, Media Prevalence in

Political Strategy, and Integrity of Democracy in a Consultant-Driven Environment.

Definition of a Political Consultant

Although the subject of professional political consulting has become a popular topic in

scholarly research, there was little agreement as to a clear definition of a political

consultant. However, by combining several important elements, a workable explanation

was produced. The two main elements included in the operational description were

experience and expertise. These two elements were important because they provided a

method for distinguishing between a professional political consultant and a paid

campaign staffer.

Experience was expressed through client variety established in the career portfolio of a

political strategist. Not only have political consultants served on hundreds of campaigns

in their careers, they have also worked on many of them simultaneously within a single

campaign cycle (Medvic, 2003). Furthermore, client variety was established through

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nationwide, state-wide and congressional campaign or through 527 advocacy work (p.

124). This distinction establishes a foundation of legitimacy that can only come from a

large-scale political operation.

Expertise was seen as an extension of experience, whereas previous work led to

received benefits. The foremost benefit was being among the highest grossing in the field

(Medvic, 2003). The second benefit was membership within the American Association of

Political Consultants (p. 121). The final benefit revolved around a sense of notoriety that

was substantiated with book deals, featured documentaries and a general sense of

celebrity status.

A combination of all elements (client variety, campaign type, pay, membership and

notoriety) was presented as the ideal representation of the type of experience and

expertise required to fulfill an operational political consultant definition. Providing a

universal definition was important, “without an agreed definition to employ, the study of

political consulting will remain idiosyncratic and fragmentary. That, in turn, hampers

efforts to provide normative evaluation and comparative analysis of the consulting

phenomenon” (Medvic, 2003, p. 119).

For that reason, Medvic proposed the following definition and the researcher also

considered it accurate:

A person who is paid, or whose firm is paid, to provide services for one

presidential/national or more than one non-presidential/sub-national campaign

(whether candidate or issue) per election cycle for more than one such cycle, not

including those whose salary is paid exclusively by a party committee or ‘interest

group’ (p. 124).

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Professional Political Consulting as an Emerging Industry

Although a universal definition did not exist, political consulting was considered a

long standing tradition in the political world. However, in terms of professionalizing a

group of political operatives into a legitimate industry, development began in the middle

of the 20th Century. Three factors indicate the assurance of this phenomenon: growth in

size, media attention and service expansion.

Professionalization of the industry was demonstrated by vast growth in the number of

consultants. The most influential element to this growth was the advent of television in

the late 1940’s (Novotny, 2000). Mass media technology marked the onset of the media

consultant shortly followed by the public opinion specialist; from there came the pollster

and so on. At first, according to Taylor (2002), political consultants only advised national

or high-profile races, but now have become such a campaign staple that “their

involvement in political campaigns has spread … to down-ballot races, ballot initiatives

and local elections” (as cited by Sussman, 2005, p. 63).

In 1969, Joseph Napolitan (widely considered the father of the consulting industry)

founded the American Association of Political Consultants (AAPC, 2007). The AAPC

began with only 25 members, by the 1990’s the number of consultants had tripled; today,

membership has grown to over 4,000 (AAPC, 2007; Panagopoulos, 2006). A survey

investigating the demographic make-up of the association showed that 98% of it

members were Caucasian, 82% were male and 52% were earning an annual family

income of $150,000 or more (Thurber, Nelson & Dulio, 2000).

Another indicator of an increased industry growth was seen through the distribution of

the trade magazine, Campaigns & Elections and development of “at least 14 universities

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graduate programs in campaign management” (Lathrop, 2003; Milligan, 2007, p. 3). A

relatively large number of professionals, the development of an association, as well as a

trade publication and the emergence accredited post-graduate education programs

specifically tailored for political professionals are all indicators that political consultancy

has gained the status of a legitimate industry.

However, industry growth alone can not fully demonstrate the professionalization of

political consultancy; researchers must also consider the amount of attention directed to

the industry by popular media. For example, political consultants were scarcely

mentioned in the 1970’s, but the number of references climbed steadily in the 1980’s.

According to his research, Panagopoulos (2006), found 75 mentions in 1980 compared to

only 34 in 1979; by 1985 there were 439 and 737 in 1990; the data indicated a steady

growth until reaching a maximum of 998 in 1992, where it stabilized (p. 867).

Beyond informational media, political consultants were also mentioned in

entertainment media. Many professional political consultants are present in movies,

documentaries, television programs and books. Some examples of media representation

include the movie Primary Colors, starring John Travolta, the Bill Clinton documentary,

The War Room, the best-selling book Bare Knuckles and Back Rooms and the popular

sitcom Spin City, starring Michael J. Fox (Johnson, 2001). The increased media attention,

both in education and in entertainment, solidified political consultants’ grip on the

campaign market.

A final testament to the industry’s influence is its service expansion. The cyclical

nature of campaign work pushes many political consultants towards venturing into other

sectors beyond politics. This can be seen in a survey conducted by Magleby and

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Patterson (2000) that illustrated the different types of consultant clients: 33% special

interest groups, 28% political candidates, 7% political parties, 11% grassroots campaigns

(p. 141). The most interesting statistic shown by Magleby and Patterson’s research was

that special interest groups had surpassed political candidate work.

Many political consultants chose to explore the interest group arena by working as

lobbyists. For instance, in New York, a study conducted showed that half of the top 10

consultant-lobbyist firms in 2001 made no additional money from lobbying and

consulting; four years later those same consultant-lobbyists earned $32 million more

from lobbying and consulting (McIntire, 2006). Other political strategists have tested

their skills in the corporate sector. “Utility, pharmaceutical, tobacco and long-distance

telephone companies have all expanded their budgets for advertising, media buys and

polling by consulting firms” (Novotny, 2000, p. 12).

The most recent service expansion was in the internationalization of campaign

consultancy. Political strategists are seen as “transportable commodities [that can] cross

national boundaries” (Bowler & Farrell, 2000, p. 163). Studies show that American

political strategists have worked in over 70 countries and 58% of the membership make-

up of the International Association of Political Consultants is of American-based origin

(pp. 162 & 163). Bowler and Farrell’s study clearly showed the global dominance that is

emerging from the American political consulting industry.

Overall, the industry proved its power through growth in membership, media attention

and service expansion. It was apparent that its influence was substantial in American

political, business and interest group society; an impact that has even reached into the

international realm.

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Political Consulting Effects on Campaign Management

There was little doubt that professional political consulting proved to be a dominant

industry, but no evidence affirmed industry authority more than observing the effects of

political consulting on campaign management. Political consultants have been influential

in this regard because they established direction and brought credibility to campaigns.

There were several elements to consider in planning any campaign: District profile,

Demographic Profile, Candidate and Opposition Profiles, Electoral History, Public

Opinion, General Strategy, Fundraising Plan, Communication Strategy and Grassroots

(Shea & Burton, 2006). With so many areas of consideration, candidates look to political

consultant expertise to help them develop a modern campaign strategy. “Consultants

bring technical skills. How to put together a TV spot. Buy Ad time. Do a reliable poll.

Acquire a direct-mail list for fundraising. Set-up a website. All are tasks a modern

campaign needs” (Adelman, 2006, p. 39).

Before a candidate can move forward with communicating with voters, they need to

be familiar with their environment. Public opinion consultants, or pollsters, conduct

research and surveys for this purpose. “Polling is crucial for conducting campaigns

because poll results tell candidates where they stand, how well-known they are, who

knows them and what people think of them” (Stonecash, 2003, p. vvii). Polling provides

candidates the necessary tools to begin planning a general campaign strategy.

General political consultants are useful in planning large-scale operations, and in

bringing a sense of credibility to a campaign. “Many campaigns believe money and

[general] consultants buy credibility. Without a big campaign apparatus, candidates can

be relegated to back-of-the-pack status” (Milligan, 2007, p. 4). Consultant involvement in

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framing the issues focuses attention on the issues that are important to the voters and it

strengthens the debate between the two candidates. “Consultants’ relationships with

candidates, voters and political parties can help each perform their appointed tasks better

and more efficiently” (Dulio, 2004, p. 186).

However, no campaign can support a large-scale operation without raising funds.

Often times presence alone initiates financial support, “Hiring professional [fundraising]

consultants increases [the candidate’s] credibility with party committees, PACs and

individuals who spend large sums in politics” (Medvic, 1998, p. 150). The phenomenon

was evident in 1992 and 2004 when, “the hiring of Mr. Carville and Mr. Begala by Mr.

Clinton, and Mr. Shrum by Mr. Kerry, provided a burst of legitimacy and fundraising for

both of them” (Nagourney, 2007, p. 3).

As money accumulates, candidates build a communication strategy that fuses

technology and individualized base-vote stratagem. Communication consultants take on

many different areas of expertise, direct-mail, web and media consulting, just to name a

few. Direct-mail as a communication medium has two advantages, it easily targets

different groups of voters and it allows for longer messages (Benoit, 2007). Many believe

that communication via the Internet could influence enough undecided voters to tip the

balances in a close race because “20% of likely voters visit presidential websites and 30%

of likely voters rate the internet the best place to learn about a candidate’s position on an

issue, beating out television, newspapers, radio, magazines and pamphlets” (Britt, 2007,

p. 2).

However, media (radio and television) continues to be the communication medium

relied upon most by political campaigns. Media consultants are important not only in

20

creating a message, but also in targeting audiences and purchasing specific airtimes for

radio and television commercials (Friedenberg, 1997). In fact, media strategists are so

prevalent in campaigns the researcher dedicated the following section to an analysis of

spending on media consulting.

Even though mass communication is the vehicle used most often to reach voters,

grassroots efforts are still utilized in modern campaigns. However, traditional methods

have not been exempt from the technology revolution. Voters are tracked by ever-

growing databases and through evermore sophisticated micro-targeting programs.

Grassroots consultants are useful for implementing field strategy and training volunteers

to utilize web-based voter file databases and electronically transferring data through palm

pilots and scanning technology (Shea & Burton, 2006).

Overall, consultants are useful in bringing technical skills to campaigns and in

developing strategy at all levels of campaign management. Their advice is so useful that

Medvic and Lenart (1997) found that the presence of a professional consultant increases

the candidate’s vote share by 5 % (as cited by Panagopoulos, 2006, p. 867).

Political consultant influence is so intense that Hillary Clinton, a current democratic

presidential candidate, has “paid more than $1.3 million to 10 different types of

professional political operatives. … Her campaign has spent $17.8 million overall, and

hired more than 350 people during the first half of the year, making it a bigger employer

than 96 % of U.S. businesses” (Milligan, 2007, p. 1).

In addition, all during the first three months of the year, Mrs. Clinton spent $277,000

towards her pollster, $155,000 on her media consultant, $184,000 on her direct mail

consultant and $200,000 on her website consultant (Cillizza, 2007). This alone illustrates

21

that candidates are willing to spend whatever it takes to gain the experience and expertise

of political consultants at every level of campaign management.

Prevalence of Media in Political Strategy

Of all the elements in technology that have increased campaign spending, none have

been more significant than the advances in media. “In the Country’s early elections,

campaigns relied on pamphlets and privately published newspapers to reach voters.

Contemporary candidates communicate through direct mail brochures, ads in magazines

and newspapers, television and radio broadcast ads and Internet sites” (Kowalski, 2000,

p. 78).

Advances in media technology have become the main focus of spending by political

campaigns, “Campaigns are now spending more on advertising than on anything else”

(Green, 2004, p. 83). According to TNS Media Intelligence (2005), “political campaigns

spent $1.5 billion on advertising last presidential year” (as cited by Melillo, 2007, p. 1).

Not surprisingly, political media consultants have become an integral part of this

lucrative aspect of campaigns, “In 2004, media consultants received 65% of all consultant

spending” (Bergo, September 2006b, p. 1).

The areas of media that have progressed the most are television and radio. “In 1952

presidential candidates spent 30% of their campaign budget on radio and television ads.

By 1992 the share ballooned to 50%; other races reached nearly 80%” (Kowalski, 2000 p.

79). Candidates have turned their attention to advertising because of a shift in political

strategy.

“Elections [used to be] fights over your ability to get the swing voter. But the trick

since then has become getting more of your base to turn out on Election Day” (Adelman,

22

2006, p. 38). With hundreds of channels to choose from, cable and satellite television

appeals to niches; instead of moving programming to the middle to attract more moderate

swing voters, it is geared toward the extreme to appeal to more extreme base voters.

Contemporary media consultant strategy for creating advertisements is defined by

three characteristics: increased issues, decreased length and a prevalence of negativity.

“Over time political ads have become more confusing, shorter and more malevolent”

(Green, 2006, p. 84). While less is often more, consultants seem to cram as many issues

into an ad as they can. “From 1952 to 1996 the average number of issues [per ad] rose by

1,995%” (p. 84).

The purpose of a political ad is to promote the candidate’s ideology on social and

economic issues. To effectively communicate the candidate’s view, communication

experts advise that it is most effective to “develop one and only one idea” (Friedenberg,

2007, p. 160). The most important element in any TV spot is a strong and controlling

concept, making the current trend to bombard voters with cluttered messages an

ineffective strategy.

Even though the number of issues increased, the amount of words used to explain

those issues decreased. In 1960, an average of 210 words was used per ad; by 1996 the

average dwindled to 86 words per ad (Green, 2006). In addition to confusing, political

advertisements have completely derailed from positive public image. Negative

advertising has grown from 11% to 43% between 1960 and 1996 (p. 84). The rise of

negative attacks can be attributed to the shift in political focus by each party to turning

out their base on Election Day. Negative ads highlight special issues; this in turn ignites

their base and disgusts the rest of the voters (Adelman, 2006).

23

Although political ads are poor in quality, viewers continue to be bombarded by them

during campaign season. Media consultants advise candidates to pound constituents with

repetitiveness instead of creating memorable messages. In the 1970’s, a campaign

typically would get a 500-point buy, meaning the audience would likely view the

commercial 3 times within one week (Bergo, September 2006c).

Today, during the closing weeks of a campaign, a typical buy is 3,000-point;

increasing the likelihood of the audience viewing the commercial at least 30 times within

a one week period (p. 1). This strategy that relies on quantity instead of quality has

pushed an audience to use TiVo to eliminate commercials, or just completely tune-out

(Adelman, 2006).

After examining the effectiveness of this media strategy, the researcher questioned the

underlying reason for media consultants to advise candidates to buy so much air time:

Does the repetition actually reach voters or do mammoth media buys increase consultant

pocketbooks? “For every advertising dollar spent, consultants typically are paid a

commission that can run as high as 15 percent” (Bergo, September 2006a, p. 1). More air

time means more money in commission; it is the underlying cause for the increase in

media infiltration. It seems to imply that political consultants who work on commission

have been advising candidates to overspend so that they can turn a buck.

Campaign spending has been significantly influenced by advances in media

technology. The preferred method for reaching base-voters is through radio and television

advertising. Although the quality of the campaign ad has deteriorated over the last three

decades, media consultants have advised candidates to significantly increase media buys.

This strategy has resulted in an audience that has become desensitized and tuned-out.

24

Because there is a threshold above which spending on ads is ineffective, it seems that the

only logical explanation for media consultants to continue advising to buy more air time

is for personal financial gain.

Integrity of Democracy in a Consultant-Driven Environment

Although political consultants provide candidates technical services that facilitate

effective political strategy there are several ethical questions that come to light regarding

their impact on the integrity of American democratic values. The issues include: their

contribution to the rise in campaign spending, the methods they employ in campaign

management and their transition into the interest group arena.

Americans value efficiency and social justice in government administration, but the

overall effect of political consulting on campaign spending may be creating the opposite

situation. On the one hand, campaign spending seems to “take over the priority of

legislators to protect their incumbency that grants access and favors to contributors”

(Coleman & Manna, 2000, p. 760). On the other hand, more spending equates to more

information which produces a more enlightened and active citizenry (p. 757). Regardless

of which theory is more prevalent, the end is this, “Obscene levels of spending make the

public view politics as obscene” (p. 760).

Americans value strength, honesty and individuality in their political leaders.

However, some of the methods employed by political consultants in campaign

management are considered manipulative. For instance, polling is viewed as undermining

“political leadership and character, or [even worse] provide the means for politicians to

manipulate the electorate” (Stonecash, 2003, p. 1). Others believe that polling takes away

from a candidate’s charisma and individuality. “Gore lost the election because he came

25

across as stiff, phony and uncomfortable in public … [because] every last word he uttered

had been market tested in advance” (Gailey, 2006, p. 1).

Americans value an inclusive style of government and encourage public debate and

activism. On the contrary, methods used by political consultants can at times appear to be

repressive. “Some political consultants will readily acknowledge their preference for

smaller election turnouts, as predictability (and therefore their credibility) is greater with

the participation of the more reliable and targeted voters” (Sussman, 2005, p. 60). Taylor

(2002) states that “the name of the game is to drive down your opponent’s vote total

rather than to build up your own” (as cited by Sussman, 2005, p. 61). Using negative ads

to drive wedges between democratic and republican supporters immobilizes the electorate

and polarizes a country founded on unity and activism.

Many Americans believe that politicians should be more responsive to the issues most

important to their constituents instead of pandering to special interest groups. This issue

becomes even more detrimental when considering the current swing of political

strategists moonlighting as interest group lobbyists. Lathrop (2003), asserts that “the

increased use of political consultants adversely impacts the chances for legislative

compromise, bolsters the influence of special interests and undermines public trust in the

democratic process” (as cited by Panagopoulos, 2005, p. 168).

The root of the problem lies in the lack of regulation. “Unlike federal legislators and

their staff members who are required to wait a year before lobbying former colleagues,

consultants are not bound by rules slowing down the so-called revolving door between

campaign work and lobbying” (Bergo, December 2006, p. 1). Not only does it lack

regulation, but it feeds into a system that depends on the mass media to communicate

26

with citizens. This brings about the concern that “political consultants, in the employ of

interest groups, further advantage elite interests at the expense of the disorganized and

impoverished” (Lathrop, 2003, p. 6). Those with money get to frame the issue and

America’s working class continues to exist without proper representation.

Overall, Sabbato’s criticism (1981) sums up that general feeling that “political

professionals … have helped homogenize American politics, added significantly to

campaign costs, lengthened campaigns and narrowed the focus of elections…exploiting

emotional and negative themes rather than encouraging rational discussion (as cited by

Dulio, 2004, p. 168). That being said, it is no wonder that survey research done by

Panagopoulos and Thurber (2003) identified that the American public is less satisfied

“with political consultants than with other groups of political actors including lobbyists

and elected officials” (as cited by Panagopoulos, 2005, p. 867).

Summary

In this chapter, the researcher defined the term political consultant by explaining the

necessary requirements in experience and expertise. The researcher also gave evidence as

to the professionalization of campaigns and the legitimacy of political consulting as an

industry primarily based on growth in number, media attention and service expansion.

Additionally, the researcher connected the reliance of the political consulting industry to

the influence of their methods on campaign management, especially in regard to the

prevalence of media consultants in communication strategy. Finally, the researcher

discussed the ethical implication of political consultants on the integrity of democratic

values regarding campaign spending, campaign methods and special interest groups.

27

CHAPTER III: METHODOLOGY

Introduction

In this chapter, the researcher explained the approach to the study and described the

procedure that was employed to secure significant data. The researcher presented the size

and demographics of the sample population and discussed the validity and reliability of

techniques used. Finally the researcher gave description as to the methods employed for

collecting, analyzing and presenting the data findings.

Research

The researcher proposed the following null hypothesis H0: There was a correlation

between heavy financial investment in professional political consultants and winning

elections. The researcher proposed the following alternate hypothesis H1: There was no

correlation between heavy financial investment in professional political consultants and

winning elections.

The researcher used the hypothesis testing research approach to gain insight into the

influence of independent variable (amount invested in political consulting activities) on

dependent variable (rate of winning elections). The remainder of the chapter was

presented in the following manner: sample population, data collection, validity and

reliability, data analysis, presentation of data and summary.

Sample Population

The researcher examined DCCC-targeted congressional races from the 2006 elections;

88 races were identified. The researcher limited targeted races examined to states that had

20 or more electoral votes in which neither candidate received more than 53% of the vote

share. (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, 2006)

28

This included the following 18 races:

California (55 electoral votes): District 11, Pombo 47.1% and McNerney 52.9%

New York (31 electoral votes): District 19, Kelly 49.0% and Hall 51.0%; District

20, Sweeney 47.0% and Gillibrand 53.0%; District 25, Maffei 49.0% and Walsh

51.0%; District 26, Davis 48.1% and Reynolds 51.9%; and District 29, Massa

48.5% and Kuhl 51.5%

Florida (27 electoral votes): District 13, Jennings 49.9% and Buchanan 50.1%;

District 16, Negron 49.0% and Mahoney 51.0%; and District 22, Shaw 47.8% and

Klein 52.2%

Illinois (21 electoral votes): District 06, Duckworth 48.4% and Roskam 51.6%;

District 08, McSweeney 47.0% and Bean 53.0%; and District10, Seals 47.2% and

Kirk 52.8%

Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes): District 04, Hart 48.0% and Altmire 52.0%;

District 06, Gerlach 49.5% and Murphy 50.5%; and District 08, Fitzpatrick 49.7%

and Murphy 50.3%

Ohio (20 electoral votes): District 01, Cranley 47.2% and Chabot 52.8%; District

02, Wulsin 49.5% and Schmidt 50.5%; and District 15, Kilroy 49.1% and Pryce

50.9%

Data Collection

The procedure used to collect significant data was a secondary data study. For the

dependent variable, the researcher used election results posted on the DCCC website. The

unit of analysis was based on the election results: Winner or Loser. For the independent

variable, the researcher used pre and post general election campaign expenditure reports

29

filed with the FEC. The unit of analysis was dollars spent on political consulting

activities.

The data was systematically collected by line item utilizing the definition of political

consulting activities found on p. 11. Expenditure data was divided into two sections:

winning and losing candidates and political consulting categories. Categories included:

Media, Direct-Mail, Telecommunications, Public Relations, Fundraising, General and

Miscellaneous.

Validity and Reliability

The dependant variable data collected was from the DCCC, a reputable and

longstanding political institution. The independent variable data collected was from the

FEC, a government institution. Therefore, authenticity was implied because filing

financial reports was mandated and regulated by the federal government. Furthermore,

noncompliance could result in fines or imprisonment, another incentive for truthful and

accurate information. However, flaws may have existed due to manipulation of the data

filed by the candidate. Candidates may have omitted specific spending activities or

employed purposeful ambiguity in expenditure description.

The procedure used by the researcher to code the data was inclusive of all major

political consulting services. Nevertheless, without intimate knowledge as to the details

of each campaign, there was room for error; either in improperly coding political

consulting activities or in omitting expenditures that should have been coded as political

consulting activities. Moreover, political consulting expenditures that resulted from 527

advocacy groups or state party committees can not be accounted for due to the lack of

reporting requirements on soft money independent expenditures.

30

The research design was most effective in quantifying the relationship between money

spent on political consulting activities and election outcome, therefore the design

addressed the objective of evaluating the success of political consultation. The design

also identified the quality of political consultation strategy by comparing the rate of

winning to spending patterns for different categories of consulting services, which

addressed the second objective. Finally, the design provided a guideline or threshold as to

when the amount expended outweighed the win result, which dealt with the third

objective of evaluating the cost versus benefits aspect of political consultation.

Data Analysis

All data was analyzed by the researcher using both descriptive and inferential statistics

in the evaluation. Inferential statistic techniques included: frequency distributions,

proportions, central tendency and measures of dispersion.

Presentation of Data

The data was presented in the following format: tables and figures.

Summary

In this chapter, the researcher wrote about the methodology used in the study, first

detailing the research approach, then sample population, followed by data collection

procedures. The researcher ended the chapter discussing the validity and reliability of the

methodology, data analysis and presentation of data.

31

CHAPTER IV: DATA ANALYSIS

Introduction

In this chapter the researcher presented the results of data collection. The

analysis was broken down into two categories: Findings by Election Results and

Findings by Consulting Category. The researcher analyzed 52 FEC reports (36 pre-

general reports and 36 post-general reports) that covered 18 races in which there were

two candidates per race.

The researcher inspected every line item description; first determining whether or not

it was a political consulting activity, then determining which type of political consulting

activity it was. If the line item description was ambiguous, the researcher determined

whether or not the activity was a political consulting activity by comparing the listed

activity with the political consulting activities performed by the consultant as listed in

internet search engine results and website descriptions.

The analysis showed that the law of diminishing returns applied in both categories.

Increased production of one variable (money spent on consultants) while the other

variable remained constant (winning an election), resulted in a decrease in the overall

returns after a certain point (“Diminishing returns,” 2007). In other words, there was a

threshold spending amount beyond which a candidate’s money was wasted on political

consultants.

Findings by Election Results

After examining the expenditure reports it was clear that the Winners outspent the

Losers on total political consulting activities, $23,469,029 to $19,634,687 (Table 1, p.

32); a spending margin 16% higher than the losing candidates. Looking solely at total

32

spent, it was possible to deduce that spending more money on political consultants led to

winning elections.

Table 1. Statistics for Election Results

Measurement Winners Losers

Mean $1,303,835 $1,090,816

Median 1,173,746 1,090,757

Mode 600,000 1,200,000

Standard Deviation 761,216 485,581

Range 2,407,736 1,873,800

Minimum 425,523 346,583

Maximum 2,833,259 2,220,383

Sum 23,469,029 19,634,687

However, after examining each race individually, the researcher found that Winners

outspent the Losers only 56% of time (see below). Although the Winners had dedicated

16% more actual dollars, 44% of the candidates still won their race while spending less

than their opponents.

300,000

800,000

1,300,000

1,800,000

2,300,000

2,800,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Congressional Races

Do

llars

Sp

en

t

Winners

Losers

Figure 1. Candidates Total Spending Pattern

Furthermore, the range was wide for both Winners and Losers, $2,407,736 and

$1,873,800 respectively, which indicated that there was no consistent evidence

33

solidifying the notion that spending more guaranteed a winning result (Table 1, p.32).

The lack of an overwhelming majority in the Winner rate of outspending coupled with

the wide range of spending totals, led the researcher to conclude that a spending threshold

existed.

In order to derive a spending guideline the researcher examined the central tendency

of Winner and Loser spending patterns. The average total amount spent on political

consultant activities by Winners was $1,303,835; a figure relatively close to the average

spent by Losers, $1,090,816; a relationship that is mirrored in comparing median as well

(Table 1, p. 32). This indicated that in general, the execution of a modern congressional

campaign required $1 million dollars (more or less).

However, when examining the mode it became evident that Winners spent much less

more often. The mode for Winners was exactly half of the mode for Losers (Table 1, p.

32). This showed that the Losers were much more consistent in their spending strategy,

however ineffective it was. Again, this pointed to an inability to identify a strong pattern

of spending more to win.

The only area where the researcher was able to find a consistent Winner spending

pattern was in the differential amount between Winner totals and Loser totals. By

subtracting the total amount Losers spent (by race) from the total amount Winners spent

(by race); the researcher examined how much more or less was spent on a successful

campaign (Figure 2, p. 34).

As demonstrated by Table 2 on p. 34, winning candidates spent up to $500,000 more

than their opponent with the highest frequency. Thus, it was clear that spending more

than $500,000 over the opponent resulted in diminishing returns.

34

(1,500,000)

(1,000,000)

(500,000)

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Winning Congressional Races

Dif

fere

nti

al

Am

ou

nt

Figure 2. Winner Differential Spending Pattern

Table 2. Winner Frequency Differential for Total Spent

Differential Amount of Total Spent Frequency

$200,000,000 - $150,000,001 1

$150,000,000 - $100,000,001 2

$100,000,000 - $500,001 2

$500,000 - $1 5

$0 - ($500,000) 4

($500,0001) - ($1,000,000) 4

The final interesting aspect revealed when comparing Winners and Losers was the

quantity of consultants and firms that were hired. After comparing the two groups it was

overwhelmingly clear that the Winners used fewer consultants (including both individual

consultants and consulting firms) than the Losers (Table 3, p. 35). The Losers hired more

consultants 81% of the time. Figure 3 on p. 35 demonstrates the candidate hiring patterns

of consultants and consulting firms.

This affirms that the political world has become so consumed by the industry that

“now any major campaign has so many consultants that it is either a disastrous shift of

focus every day or it is governed by committee, which results in mush” (Adelman, 2006,

35

p. 38). The first order of strategy should be hiring fewer consultants in order to maintain

focus and direction. The fact that Losers hired more consultants in 81% of the races

studied also disproved the statement made by Medvic and Lenart (1997) that the rate of

“winning rises by 2.5 percentage points for each additional consultant hired by the

campaign” (as cited by Panagopoulos, 2006, p. 867).

Table 3. Quantity of Consultants and Consulting Firms Hired

Candidate Type Consultants Hired Number of Races with More

Consultants

Winners 170 7

Losers 209 11

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Congressional Races

Co

nsu

ltan

ts H

ired

Winners

Losers

Figure 3. Candidate Hiring Pattern of Consultants

Findings by Consulting Category

Breaking down spending patterns by category provided more insight into the strategy

behind successful and unsuccessful patterns of spending on political consultants. By

examining the subtotals of each consulting category the researcher identified strategies

used by Winners and Losers.

36

Table 4. Subtotals by Consulting Category by Priority

Consulting Category Winners Losers

Media $20,637,632 $16,739,978

Direct Mail 1,403,436 1,302,282

Public Relations 496,528 482,780

Fundraising 342,718 460,978

General 224,446 324,121

Telecommunications 194,242 166,049

Miscellaneous 170,028 158,499

Examining subtotals made it clear in which categories the most dollars were spent by

the candidates. Media received the most significant allocation of financial resources

overall and in each race studied by the researcher. The amount of spending on Direct-

Mail came in a distant second to Media spending. Furthermore, the statistics showed that

Miscellaneous and Telecommunications received the smallest allocation of financial

resources. The mere fact that both Winners and Losers had the same ranking in priority

when comparing dollars spent in each category suggested that winning and losing

candidates had a basic understanding of overall planning (see above). However, this may

only correlate with the cost of each service.

Winners and Losers differed in percentage of resources distributed to individual

consulting categories. In almost every category, Media excluded, Losers spent an equal

or larger portion of their budget compared to Winners (see above). The only category

where Losers actually dedicated a smaller percentage of their total budget was in Media

(Figure 5, p. 37). The fact that Media was the only category where Winners dedicated

more of the budget than Losers showed that it was the most significant weakness in Loser

allocation strategy.

37

Figure 4. Percentage of Consulting Budget Used per Category Excluding Media

Figure 5. Percentage of Consulting Budget Used Towards Media v. Other Categories

The researcher examined the number of winning candidates who outspent losing

candidates within each consulting category and found that Winners outspent Losers in

Public Relations 61% of the time (Figure 6, p. 38). This was an interesting discovery

because Winners and Losers spent nearly the same amount of actual dollars in the

category (Table 4, p. 36); in fact, it was the smallest difference in actual dollars spent of

any consulting category. The fact that Public Relations was the category where Winners

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

Direct Mail

Telecommunications

Public Relations

Fundraising

General

Miscellaneous

Percentage of Total Budget

Losers

Winners

Co

nsu

ltin

g C

ateg

ory

8%

28%

48%

68%

88%

Winners 88% 12%

Losers 85% 15%

Media Other

38

outspent Losers with the highest frequency, led the researcher to conclude that this was

the second most significant weakness in Loser allocation strategy.

56%

44%

44%

61%

50%

39%

50%

Media

Direct Mail

Telecommunication

Public Relations

Fundraising

General

Miscellaneous

Consu

ltin

g C

ateg

ory

Winner Rate of Outspending Figure 6. Comparison of Individual Race Rate of Outspending for Winners

Media Consulting

Of all the categories examined, media consulting received the largest portion of

financial resources from both winning and losing candidates. Overall, Winners outspent

the Losers $20,637,632 to $16,739,978 (see below); a 19% spending margin over the

Losers, the largest difference of any consulting category. This fact coupled with the wide

range between high and low spending for Winners indicated that Winners may have

overspent on Media in some races.

Table 5. Statistics for Media Consulting


Mean $1,146,535 $929,999

Median 862,761 824,346

Mode 500,000 600,000


Range 2,082,222 1,747,371

Minimum 288,466 305,650

Maximum 2,370,688 2,053,021

Sum 20,637,632 16,739,978

39

Looking at individual races, winning candidates outspent losing candidates on media

consulting 56% of the time (see below); one of only two categories where the scale

tipped past 50%, indicating that the amount spent by Winners may have been too much.

Spending more in this category was instrumental; Winners dedicated 88% of their

consulting resources to media consultants while Losers dedicated 85% (Figure 5, p. 37).

Although Winners and Losers both spent a majority of their consulting budget on Media

neither the mean nor the median drastically deviated from the center. The researcher

concluded that the 3% difference had a considerable effect on the election outcome.

200,000

700,000

1,200,000

1,700,000

2,200,000

2,700,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Congressional Races

Do

llar

s S

pen

t

Winners

Losers

Figure 7. Candidate Spending Pattern on Media Consultants

Direct-Mail Consulting

Direct-mail was the second largest investment by Winners and Losers (the only other

category to net over $1,000,000). Winners outspent the Losers on direct-mail consultants,

$1,403,436 to $1,302,282 (Table 6, p. 38); a 7% spending margin over the Losers. The

fact that the spending margin was so low led the researcher to believe that both winning

and losing candidates spent an appropriate amount on this Direct-Mail. Furthermore, the

fact that the mode was $0 for winning and losing candidates coupled with the

40

inconsistencies in central tendency indicated that the pattern of spending was not

significant enough to assign a strength or weakness in allocation strategy.

Table 6. Statistics for Direct-Mail Consulting


Mean $77,969 $72,349

Median 11,000 24,004

Mode - -


Range 486,700 315,774

Minimum - -

Maximum 486,700 315,774

Sum 1,403,436 1,302,282

Winners outspent Losers on direct-mail consultants 44% of the time (see below). This

suggested that losing candidates would not have gained an advantage by spending more

on Direct-Mail. Winners dedicated 1% of the total political consulting budget specifically

to direct-mail consultants while Losers dedicated 2% (Figure 4, p. 37). With this in mind,

the researcher concluded that a more effective allocation strategy would include using 1%

less of their budget on direct-mail consulting and instead funneling it toward Media.

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Congressional Races

Do

llars

Sp

en

t

Winners

Losers

Figure 8. Candidate Spending Pattern on Direct-Mail Consultants

41

Telecommunications Consulting

Winners outspent the Losers on telecommunications consultants, $194,242 to

$166,049 (see below); a spending margin of 15% over the Losers. Although the

difference in spending was not as high as Media, it was the second largest difference of

all the consulting categories. Several candidates opted not to use any financial resources

for telecommunications consultants.

This indicated variability and pointed to the fact that Winners may have overspent in

this category. However, when comparing central tendency, Losers clearly demonstrated

complete inconsistency. This suggested that the result may have been due to gross under-

spending by the Losers rather than gross over-spending by the Winners.

Table 7. Statistics for Telecommunications Consulting


Mean $10,791 $9,225

Median 4,546 -

Mode - -


Range 54,270 122,441

Minimum - -

Maximum 54,270 122,441

Sum 194,242 166,049

Winners outspent losers on telecommunications consulting 44% of the time (Figure 9,

p. 42). This was the only category where the Winners spent more overall yet did so at a

rate less than 50% of the time. However, Winners dedicated 6% of the total political

consulting budget specifically to telecommunications while losers dedicated 7% (Figure

4, p. 37). Losers actually spent a larger portion of their budget on Telecommunications

than Winners, so it did not indicate a failure in allocation strategy, but rather a failure in

budgeting.

42

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Congressional Races

Do

llars Winners

Losers

Figure 9. Spending Pattern on Telecommunications Consultants

Public Relations Consulting

Public relations consulting, otherwise known as polling, was the category that had the

least amount of difference between the winning candidates and the losing candidates.

This observation indicated that both groups sufficiently executed this plan. Overall

Winners outspent the Losers on pollsters $496,528 to $482,780 (Table 8, p. 43). This was

only 3% more than the Losers, the lowest difference in spending rate of all the consulting

categories. Public Relations and Media were the only two categories where every

winning candidate participated, which showed consistency among the winning candidate

strategies.

The average polling amount spent by Losers was $26,821 (Table 8, p. 43) an amount

nearly identical to the Winners. However, this was the only consulting category where

every winning candidate spent some total but Losers did not. This demonstrated a

weakness in the allocation strategy of those Losers who did not spend any money on

pollsters.

43

Table 8. Statistics for Public Relations Consulting


Mean $27,585 $26,821

Median 19,780 26,800

Mode 15,000 -


Range 78,499 75,251

Minimum 5,500 -

Maximum 83,999 75,251

Sum 496,528 482,780

Winners outspent Losers on polling 61% of the time (see below) which showed that

allocating more resources towards this category could prove beneficial to the Losers.

Both Winners and Losers dedicated 2% of the total political consulting budget

specifically to polling (Figure 4, p. 37); because both spent the same percentage of the

budget, the question was one of available resources as opposed to expenditure strategy.

Although they spent the same portion of their budget, 61% of Winners spent more dollars

on polling. Overall, this category had the most consistency between winning and losing

candidates spending strategies. This implied that spending more actual dollars on polling

could have the most affect on election results compared to any other consulting category.

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Congressional Races

Do

llars

Sp

en

t

Winners

Losers

Figure 10. Spending Pattern on Public Relations Consultants

44

Fundraising Consulting

Fundraising was one of only two categories where Losers outspent Winners, which

indicated that spending less on fundraising consultants and allocating extra funds to

Media or Public Relations would be a better strategy. Losers outspent the Winners on

fundraising consultants $460,978 to $342,718 (see below) a spending rate 35% over the

Winners; one of the largest rates of outspending in any category.

Table 9. Statistics for Fundraising Consulting


Mean $19,040 $25,610

Median 8,162 11,528

Mode - -


Range 80,837 147,187

Minimum - -

Maximum 80,837 147,187

Sum 342,718 460,978

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Congressional Races

Do

llars

Sp

en

t

Winners

Losers

Figure 11. Spending Pattern on Fundraising Consultants

Losers outspent Winners on fundraising 50% of the time (see above), which indicated

that spending more on fundraising consultants has a low level of influence on winning

45

elections. Losers dedicated 2% of the total political consulting budget specifically to

fundraising consultants while Winners only dedicated 1% (Figure 4, p. 37). Even though

Losers only dedicated 1% more of their budget to fundraising consultants, the fact that

they overspent by 35% more than the Winners indicated that allocating perhaps .05% less

would have been a more efficient strategy.

General Consulting

The second category where Losers outspent the Winners was in General consulting.

Losers spent $324,121 compared to the Winners total of $224,446 (see below), a

spending rate of 44% more than the Winners and the highest rate of all categories.

Table 10. Statistics for General Consulting


Mean $12,469 $18,007

Median 7,625 7,319

Mode - -


Range 54,827 134,871

Minimum - -

Maximum 54,827 134,871

Sum 224,446 324,121

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Congressional Races

Do

llar

s S

pen

t

Winners

Losers

Figure 12. Spending Pattern on General Consultants

46

Winners outspent Losers on general consulting only 39% of the time (Figure 12, p.

45), which indicated that Losers should have spent less money on general political

consultants. Losers dedicated 2% of the total political consulting budget specifically to

general consultants while Winners only dedicated 1% (Figure 4, p. 37). This was another

indicator of poor allocation strategy by Losers, perhaps the most detrimental.

Miscellaneous Consulting

Winners outspent the Losers on other various types of consultants. Overall Winners

spent $170,028 while Losers spent $158,499 (see below); Winners spent 7% more than

the Losers. The median was $4,403 and the mode was $17,200 (rounded to the nearest

$100) (see below), which showed inconsistency in the numbers. However, this is the only

category where every losing candidate employed the services of miscellaneous

consultants while some Winners opted not to spend any total, which showed consistency

in losing candidate strategy.

Table 11. Statistics for Miscellaneous Consulting


Mean $9,446 $8,805

Median 8,801 6,982

Mode - -


Range 39,652 28,795

Minimum - -

Maximum 39,652 28,795

Sum 170,028 158,499

Winners outspent Losers on miscellaneous consulting 50% of the time (Figure 13, p.

47). A low difference in spend margin and rate of spending more indicated that other

factors contributed the same or more to campaign success than this category and that

47

candidates did an adequate job with strategy. This was especially clear when considering

that Winners and Losers both dedicated 1% of the total political consulting budget to

miscellaneous consultants (Figure 4, p. 37).

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Congressional Races

Do

llar

s S

pen

t

Winners

Losers

Figure 13. Spending Pattern on Miscellaneous Consultants

By comparing Winners to Losers, the researcher identified that spending more on

consultants indicated a slight prevalence toward winning an election. However, the

researcher was also able to identify inconsistencies in the spending patterns of Winners,

which suggested that outspending did not necessarily guarantee a win. Central tendency

statistics indicated a general tendency to raise and spend (more or less) $1 million dollars

on a professional congressional campaign.

The research also pointed to a spending threshold, limiting total consultant spending to

no more than $500,000 over the total consulting budget of the competing campaign.

Furthermore, the researcher established that hiring too many political consultants and/or

firms may impede campaign success. Only by examining the strategy behind the

investment could an appropriate suggestion be made on allocation strategy.

By comparing individual consulting categories the researcher was able to distinguish

48

several things: 1) Both winning and losing candidates had similar priorities in terms of

actual dollar for each category; 2) Losing candidates had two significant weakness in

allocation strategy: they did not dedicate enough percentage of their budget to media

consulting and they did outspend their opponents enough in the Public Relations

category.

Summary

In this chapter the researcher examined patterns in consultant expenditures between

Winners and Losers, as well as in different categories of political consulting activities.

The researcher analyzed the data collected and presented the results in tables and figures.

Overall, the researcher demonstrated enough statistical strengths and weaknesses in

campaign spending and allocation strategy as it related to political consulting to put forth

conclusions to the study.

49

CHAPTER V: SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Summary

In chapter 1 the researcher discussed the background to the problem indicating that

advances in technology and the onset of the political consulting industry contributed to

increased campaign spending. The researcher then discussed the purpose of the research,

to discover the most efficient way to send campaign resources in respect to political

consulting activities. The problem statement and objectives were clearly laid-out, as was

the limitations and assumptions of the research. Finally, the researcher presented a list of

definitions that to assist readers with terminology throughout the rest of the study.

In chapter 2 the researcher identified the definition of a political consultant primarily

based on experience and expertise. The researcher explored evidence proving that the

political consulting industry has seen tremendous growth in size, media attention and

service expansion, all elements pointing to the professionalization of political

campaigning.

The researcher also discussed the effects that consultants have had on campaign

management, focusing on the elements of campaign planning and strategy. The

researcher extended the discussion of campaign management strategy by paying special

attention to the prevalence of using media in political campaigning. Finally, the

researcher questioned the ethical dilemma of political consultants and their adverse

impact on democratic values.

In chapter 3 the researcher detailed the methodology of the study. The methodology

included secondary research utilizing FEC expenditure reports analyzing targeted

congressional races from 2006. The researcher categorized line item descriptions of

50

political consulting activities in order to test the relationship between dollars spent on

consultants and the rate of winning and examine the spending patterns within different

categories of consulting activities. The researcher presented discussion on the reliability

and validity of the research methods and indicated that descriptive and inferential

statistics were used in data analysis and presentation would be done through tables and

figures.

In chapter 4 the researcher presented findings gathered by the data analysis. Overall,

the research indicated that winning candidates spent more money on political consulting

activities, discrediting the researcher’s original expectation, H1 and affirming null

hypothesis, H0. However, the data analysis indicated that a winning threshold for

consultant expenditures existed. The research findings also indicated that the most

influential areas of political consulting were Media and Public Relations.

In chapter 5 the researcher summarized the study, presented conclusions pulled from

the literature review and data analysis and gave recommendations for successful

campaign management and future research.

Conclusions

Based on the literature review and the data analysis the researcher arrived at the

following conclusions:

Spending more on consultants indicated a slight prevalence toward winning an

election.

Outspending did not necessarily guarantee a win due to the inconsistencies found

in Winner spending patterns.

As a general rule, a modern and professional congressional campaign tended to

51

raise and spend approximately $1 million dollars.

Candidates who spent no more than $500,000 over their opponents on political

consulting activities experience diminishing returns. In other words, they did not

receive value for the extra money spent.

Hiring too many political consultants and/or firms may be impeded campaign

success.

The quality of political consulting depends on a strategy focused on media and

public relations as opposed to varied categories of investment.

Recommendations

Based on the conclusions the researcher made the following recommendations for

campaign managers and directors:

Hire only a few consultants, preferably one firm per aspect of campaign

management (i.e. polling, fundraising, communication, field, etc).

Concentrate the majority of consultant expenditures on media consultants and

pollsters.

Only spend up to $500,000 over the competing campaign.

Based on the analysis the researcher recommended the following for future studies:

Investigate the impact of other demographic variables (i.e. region, party

affiliation, gender and incumbency).

Improve qualative information including, more stringent classification of political

consultants and political consultant activities.

Utilize interviews or surveys with campaign directors to better understand

campaign dynamics.

52

Examine the spending patterns in non-targeted and local races for better

comparison.

Compare total budget expenditures to consultant budget expenditures.

If these recommendations are successfully implemented campaign spending will

decrease, campaign management efficiency will increase and the social perception of

political campaign will transition from disgust to satisfaction by the American public.

53

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master of science in administration - capstone project (final)

Documents

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