mastering change by making it real

7/31/2019 Mastering change by making it real

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Issue 15 Cybersecurity Beyond the

BRICS

Interview with P&Gs

Deb Henretta

24 34 46

Designing yourfiercest competitorMastering change bymaking it realpage 12

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Designing your ercest competitorMastering change by making it real

Cover story

12 PwC ViewIssue 15


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PwC View Issue 1513

changed the mental model of the company:

It would from now on be not only about what

ran on the PC, but also the capabilities of the

Internet and the tools (the Internet Explorer

browser, for example) needed to fully exploit

them. He was not going to let a new, erce

competitor take advantage of this technologi-

cal and social trendthe Internetand use

it to beat his company.

At the time, Gates demonstrated vision,

tenacity, and, ultimately, the ability toorganize and executequalities that are

even more important today. The world is

more complex now than it was a decade

ago. Things are changing faster because

science is expanding and, most important,

because feedback loops in technology,

knowledge, and networks amplify learning.

Legend has it that in 1994, Bill Gates

assistant, Steve Sonofsky, was visiting

his alma mater, Cornell University. While

there, he noted that Cornell was taking

full advantage of the edgling Internet

email, course listings, international faculty

collaborations, etc.and red off an email

to his boss.1 As a result, Gates became con-

vinced that he needed to shift Microsofts

focus toward the Internetand fast. He

sent out a long memo2 that stated that the

Internet was taking off and that Microsoftwould be a part of it.

Moreover, he wove this fundamental change

into his story about the company. In particu-

lar, he noted that the Internet was a natural

extension of the desktop and part of the per-

sonal computer domain. In other words, he

By John J. Sviokla and Adam J. Gutstein

John J. Sviokla is a Principal in PwCs US

Advisory practice where he serves as business

leader or strategy and innovation. Principal

Adam J. Gutstein is the management consulting

leader in that practice.

So we wont experience 100 years of progress in the 21st centuryit will be more like 20,000 years of progress.Ray Kurzweil

The speed of change is increasing at an alarming rate. AuthorsJohn J. Sviokla and Adam J. Gutstein argue that to prepare foraccelerated change, companies need to look at ve critical factors

that they call the STEEP drivers: social, technological, environmental,economic, and political. Further, they maintain that managementteams like yours can make these drivers of change real by askingleadership to design a ercest competitor that could disrupt yourindustry. This manner of thinking and design sets the stage for actionsmanagement can take to benet from, rather than be overwhelmed by,this rapidly changing environment.

1 http://www.cornell.edu/about/wired/.

2 This memo can be ound at http://www.lettersonote.com/2011/07/internet-tidal-wave.html.


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For example, in 1990, the Human

Genome Project was expected to last 15

years. However, because of advances in

technology, the task was completed by

2003.3 Even the deepest experts did not

understand how the law of accelerating

returns (a phrase coined by Ray Kurzweil),which posits that technological change is

exponential,4 works. They could not see

how a combination of computer power,

increased understanding, competitive

access, and the knowledge network across

Figure 1: STEEPA broad set o drivers with the potential to disrupt all industries th Steep rivrs rovi conx

In order to make sense of this accelerat-

ing situation, we considered hundreds of

trends, predictions, and forecasts, as well

as their methods. We synthesized these

forward-looking ideas into a model of vevital, interrelated drivers that we believe

are the critical factors disrupting industries

and recreating the lines of competition.

(See Figure 1.) Understanding these core

drivers and how they impact an organiza-

tion is key to managing in this world of

accelerating returns.

drivr 1: Socil

By nature, people are social. Whether it is

a friend who badmouths his car mechanic,

or a distant cousin who helps get you

that new job, the impact of social con-

nections always has been the base upon

the Internet could make things happen

much faster than expected.

In our view, in this world of faster change,

it is time to examine the interlocking factors

of social, technological, environmental,

economic, and political change: STEEPdrivers. Making these real is an exercise in

creative destruction that involves a manage-

ment teams designing a ercest competitor

that could take advantage of these fast-

moving trends for competitive gain.

3 http://www.ornl.gov/sci/techresources/Human_Genome/aq/aqs1.shtml.

4 http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-o-accelerating-returns.

Political

Social Technological

Environmental

Economic

STEEPDrivers


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which commerce functions. Riding atop

the Internet, social networks like Facebook

and LinkedIn, or user-driven review sites

like Yelp! and Rotten Tomatoes, have

developed and taken hold at a phenomenal

pace. As pundits have noted, by population,Facebook, created only eight years ago,

would be the third-largest country in

the world.5

Today, social networks not only offer

extensive consumer information, but

also provide an infrastructure capable

of shaping societys institutionsthrough

self-organization, fundraising, and

political action. In a business context, this

means that social media is reshaping the

micro context of a companys brand and

services, and the macro context of politics

and regulation.

networks. This enables the rm to have a

live, informed conversation with its audi-

ence around the clock, throughout the year

If your rm does not perform this kind of

monitoring and responsiveness, there may

be conversations happening about you ofwhich you are unaware, and lack of atten-

tion can allow negative perceptions or even

wrong claims to fester and grow.

Trust is a signicant factor in this new

world. Customers are more willing to

trust a peer or customer review than a

companys claims about its product or

service. Numerous websites and forums

bear this out. However, today, a potent

factor has been added to the equation.

Social networks increase the ability of

online shoppers to make use of multiple

distribution channels and outlets, making

Affecting the micro domain

Recently, a major airline discovered how

the micro context of its brand could be af-

fected by the impact of social networks. A

well-known celebrity who had more than

1.4 million Twitter followers was using hisaccount to complain about the service he

received. He was updating his audience in

real time about his feelings. Fortunately

for the airline, representatives continually

monitor social media in real time to discover

what people are saying about the company.

As a result, they were able to view conversa-

tions and complaints and to respond almost

immediately to the issue that this famous,

disgruntled customer had with the airline.

Social media are completely integrated

with the airlines customer contact centers,

from the phone, to the Web, to social

5 Dan Fletcher, How Facebook Is Redefning Privacy, May 20, 2010, at http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1990798,00.html.


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the inuence of opinion that much more

powerful. For example, a recent PwC study

of more than 7,000 online users around

the globe found that the vast majority

86 percentof survey respondents shop

across at least two channels, and 25 percentare using four or ve.6 In this process, they

often turn to social media to help them

make their choices.

How are companies taking advantage of

these new social developments? The savvy

ones are co-creating products and services

with their customers. Sports apparel manu-

facturer Nike offers one example. With the

Nike+ system, a small, removable elec-

tronic pod is a part of the insole of the shoe.

This pod, which is the size of a quarter,

sends results to a smart device and allows

runners to track their own training, includ-

ing distance and pace. This information is

automatically uploaded to a website and

runners can share their routes, routines,

and comments easily and quickly. This

innovative product system, with its social

overlay, differentiates the shoe.

Affecting the macro domain

Since the commercialization of the Internet,

the number of registered non-governmentalorganizations has grown from 1,250 to more

than 45,000,7 and today, many of these ride

atop the Internet. This means that the ability

of special interest groups to organize, raise

funds, and take action has become much

easier. More than ever, businesses need to

understand who is shaping the agenda for

their companies and industries.

Part of the reason that social media has

grown so quickly is the result of positive

feedback. That is, the more that people use

the medium, add reviews, or watch online

videos, the more likely they are to nd some-

thing useful and come back. Coming back

for something useful is not different. What is

new is the permanency of the network and

the increasing returns it creates in terms of

its value. In a network, positive feedback

drives rapid adoption, a phenomenon that

we expect to continue to grow.

drivr 2: tchnologicl

We live in a wondrous and disconcertingage. Chances are your briefcase or pocket

holds one of the latest waves of technologi-

cal change. Based on cellular subscriptions,

there are now more than 5 billion cell

phones worldwide. Almost all new cars are

connected to the Internet. The Internet of

Things is adding everything from insulin

pumps to light switches onto the grid. Big

Data allow for the decoding of human ge-

nomes and the ability of computers to beat

humans at chess. And these examples are in

no way comprehensive.8

Connecting everything means that rms

increasingly need to compete not just on

the quality of their physical value chain,

but also on their ability to manage their

information value chain. 7-Eleven in Japan

01:10:29

09:22:31

12:08:32

16:43:05

24:34:43

30:23:15

36:12:56

6 PwC, Customers take control: How the multi-channel shopper is changing the global retail landscape, December 2011.

7 http://www.apa.org/international/united-nations/publications.aspx.

8 The Internet o Things is a new kind o network that will allow sensor-enabled physical objectsappliances in your home, products in a actory, cars in a cityto talk to one another, the same wa

people communicate over the Internet. See Times Best Inventions o 2008 at http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1852747_1854195_1854158,00.html #ixzz1m0tJ9Ghn.

Big Data reers to massive amounts o data that are analyzed with massively parallel computers.

Read the ull defnition at http://www.pcmag.com/encyclopedia_term/0,2542,t=Big+Data&i=62849,00.asp.


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PwC View Issue 1517

has such great control over its informa-

tion value chain that it tells store managers

how to restock to meet the demand of

the breakfast crowd, the lunch rush, the

afternoon snacker, the evening shopper, and

the late-night eater. The company is ableto drive more sales because its information

value chain allows it to slice the store in time

increments, thereby creating more virtual

square footage through information.

General Electrics aircraft engine business

has more information about the behavior

of the engine on the wing that it tracks in

its command center than the pilots have

in the cockpit. By being able to track this

information in real time, GE can provide

customers with more analysis and preven-

tative maintenance, thereby increasing

up-time. Most important, by having a

technological connection to the engine in

ight, GE can sell power by the hour and

provide airlines with a service whereby

they pay only for those hours of engine use

they consume while GE worries about own-

ing, providing, and maintaining the asset.

We see a growing number of companies

using this technology-based advantage to

enhance their products, create new and

better services, and retain customers.

drivr 3: environmnl

From a business perspective, eco-friendliness

used to be primarily about reputation. That

no longer is the case. Today, there is pressure

on every industry to deal with power, water,

and general environmental impact.

CEOs are recognizing that sustainability

is as important to competitiveness as it is

to image, permeating every aspect of an

organization, from talent recruitment to

innovation. In fact, according to our 14th

Annual Global CEO Survey, 64 percent of

respondents agree or strongly agree that

an important part of their innovation

strategy is to develop products or services

that are environmentally friendly.

In short, in an increasingly competitive

market, eco-friendliness is a differentiator,

and more and more rms are recognizing

the need to determine the implications

of environmental matters for themselves,

their customers, and their locations.

Consider MBA Polymers, for example,

a company that has taken a potential

eco-disasterdiscarded post-consumer

plasticand turned it into a successful

enterprise. When founder and plastics

engineer Mike Biddle discovered that,

for a variety of reasons, very little plastic

was being recycled, he set out to nd a

solution. He developed a 30-step plastics

recycling system that results in a product

that requires less than one-tenth of the

energy needed to make new plastic from

crude oil. As a consequence of an innovative

eco-friendly solution, MBA Polymers has

grown to include plants in China, Austria,

and the United Kingdom, with plans to

open additional plants in the future.


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drivr 4: economic

Evidence points to the fact that the

developing world is growing at a

faster pace than the developed world.

(See Figure 2.)

Most companies not only expect to grow

in their home markets, but also intend to

expand in other countries. Firms headquar-

tered in the developed world want to growin the developing world and vice versa.

(See Figure 3.) Because there will be

intensive competition both in developed

as well as in emerging markets, companies

need to understand how to manage a globa

supply base while meeting the needs of

their local markets.

In our view, the need to grow will drive

companies to manage their costs in a glob-

ally efcient manner. This is evident in that

almost every major company is establishing

research and development centers around

the globe and sourcing from an ever-wider

base of global suppliers. For example, a

large multi-level marketing company we

worked with had standardized its core

products and business concepts around the

world. At the same time, it was important

to meet the local variations in a number

of markets. Therefore, the products that

the company stocked and the business

model it followed differed country by

country. The Internet is an infrastructure

that enables simultaneous standardizationof some capabilities and localization of

others. Again, this trend is accelerating

as a combination of more open trade and

the Internet enables a worldwide platform

for commerce.

86%of more than 7,000 online users surveyed shop across at least two channels.

Other companies also have taken advantage

of the demand for eco-friendly products and

services. Some, like LIFESAVER systems,

deal with the needs of the here and now.

LIFESAVER has developed a bottle-based(and therefore portable) water purica-

tion system that instantly creates potable

water by ltering toxins and other impuri-

ties and has lled a need that ranges from

humanitarian efforts resulting from natural

disasters to individuals traveling to locations

where drinkable water may not be readily

available. Others, like Nanoholdings LLC,

have their sights rmly xed on the future.

Nanoholdings is using cutting-edge nano-

technology to approach energy generationin new, environmentally friendly ways.

Whether focusing on today or tomorrow,

eco-friendly business is here to stay and

sure to grow, offering signicant opportu-

nities for success through innovation.


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Designing your fercest competitor:

arssing h Steep rivrs in

your businss

organization. A mental model is a picture

of how the world actually works. It is

based on data, relationships, and everyday

experiences. While mental models are

somewhat imprecise, subject to change,

and inconsistent, they also are prone to

creativity and/or ashes of insight.

Lets take an example from the airline

industry to illustrate how mental models

work. Executives at an airline brought

with them a mental model of the experi-

ence of ying with their organization that

was composed of elements such as sup-

port, innovation, trust, transparency, andquality. However, stories about the ying

experience on this airline were propagat-

ing across social networks via social media,

forever changing managements notion

of how traditional media work. Data on

interactions with, for example, gate agents,

ight attendants, and baggage handlers

also affected the mental image, as did

While it is easy to consider the STEEP driv-

ers in an abstract manner, its not as easy to

confront them in concrete and immediate

waysthat is, in ways that really can have

an impact on your company. As any leader

knows, organizational change depends

on winning peoples minds and hearts. In

order to begin a process of change, people

need to be affected on both a rational and

an emotional level. An abstract consider-

ation of change that somehow is not very

meaningful today will not get that job done.

Whats needed is a technique that brings

an immediacy to change and that leads to

concrete action steps to deal with it. Anexercise that facilitates designing your

ercest competitor is one such technique.

(See Figure 4.)

Altering the mental model

Everyone who works for, buys from, does

business or interacts in any way with a

company forms a mental model of that


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PwC View Issue 1521

moments of truth, those profound experi-

ences with a companygood or badthat

can remain with consumers for years.

Anticipating a ercest competitor can have

the same impact with regard to altering a

mental model. It is critical that manage-

ment teams learn how to design such a

competitor in order to envision how new

entities might enter their market and dis-

rupt their business.

One way to do this is to ask management to

imagine that they have been red from their

own rm and given access to capital and tal-

ent. Most executives know their companys

weaknessesthe soft underbelly, if you

willand where the opportunities lie in a

market for a rm that can move with a new

model. This exercise helps senior executives

Figure 4: A fercest competitor exercise

Alter your mental model Imagine scenarios involving

disruptive, greenfeld competitors

Apply insights gained

get out of their old mental habits and imag-

ine new ways to compete.

Developing scenarios

Once this is accomplished, the fact base from

the STEEP drivers relevant to the companys

industry can be used to imagine a couple

of scenarios that jump-start a worrisome

conversation. For example, if you are Apple,

as a starting point, you might imagine what

happens to your video business if Microsoft

were to buy Netix and do a distribution

deal with Facebook. Or if you are a prop-

erty and casualty insurance company, you

might imagine what would happen if Google

teamed up with an investment house that

was willing to create a retail insurance prod-

uct, and it used Googles search expertise to

help in underwriting and sales. Under these

hypothetical circumstances, Google could

facilitate the creation of a new-age insurance

rm. In conducting exercises of this sort, we

often suggest that the ercest competitor

be imagined as a greeneld rm because it

helps the senior team be unconstrained by

current capabilities, organizational culture,

performance standards, and norms.

As Clay Christensen has pointed out, compa-

nies are often blind-sided by rms that take

advantage of emerging trends and serve a

lower price/underserved market.10 In short,

we are asking executives to design disruptive

competitors. We nd that by doing this erc-

est competitor exercise, the STEEP drivers

become real in a context senior managemen

can understand and nd motivating on a

rational and an emotional level.

10 The Innovators Dilemma, Harvard Business School Press,

1997.


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be building relationships. STEEP drivers

uncover new complementors, channel

players, and emerging third parties.

Third, and the most difcult, is that the

senior team begins to have ideas for disrup-

tive business designs. The problem for the

CEO is that few organizations have the

right talent, organizational structure, and

funding to build a truly disruptive competi-

torbut it can be done.

Determining successa caveat

While some businesses are poised to

extend their existing models to the next

wave of change to meet the challenge of

a ercest competitor, success is neither

easy nor assured. When the trends portend

a disruptive competitor, we have found

fewif anycompanies that successfully

created disruptive business models within

their own organizations. The winners

usually devise a way to hot-house the

new business model.

Launching new products at Green Mountain Coffee

Applying the insights

The critical leadership question is this:

What does one do with the insights that are

generated from a ercest competitor design

exercise? The output usually comes in three

forms. (See Figure 5.)

First, most executive teams immediately

nd places in their business where they

need to accelerate existing initiatives

or eliminate them so as to focus on the

present and future rather than on the past.

For example, after a ercest competitor

workshop at one major insurance company,

management chose the former approach.

They amped up their direct-to-consumer

strategy because they saw its weakness in

that channel much more clearly. A differ-

ent rm saw that it needed to create a new

product to blunt a possible strategic weak-

ness if and when ination returns.

Second, senior teams pursue partnerships

with outside rms with which they should

At Green Mountain Coffee Roasters,

anticipating its ercest competitor means

applying innovation energy at all levels of

the organization. The ultimate goal? To

generate a revenue stream that grows by

15 percent per year through the introduc-

tion of new hit products.

However, according to Kevin Hartley, Vice

President of Strategy at Green Mountain,

this is easier said than done. While critical

to the launching of hit products, innovation

is not for wimps. Its ugly, and in large or-

ganizations, it collides with the status quo.

Whats needed, he says, is an understand-

ing of the dynamics of the organization,

coupled with an infrastructure that enables

innovation and, consequently, the launch-

ing of hit products. By bringing together

quality coffee and a unique single-serve

delivery system, the Keurig K-Cup single-

serve brewer is a home run for Green

Mountain and is today, as Hartley describes

it, the fastest-growing consumer product

in the US, except for the iPad.

Success, however, doesnt just happen.

It requires infrastructures suitable to the

launching of global hit products, including

individuals who are drivers of innovation,

suitable gatekeepers, and assets that are

aligned with opportunities.

Accelerate or eliminate existing initiatives

Pursue new partnerships

Develop disruptive business designs

Figure 5: Creating a disruptive business model


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PwC View Issue 1523

Hartley refers to individuals who drive

innovation asproducers. A producer,

he says, takes an idea and rams it through

until it exists in the physical world. Produc-

ers are change agents who never give up.

Rather, they take decision makers through

the processes needed to make great new

products real. They lay the groundwork

for infrastructures that enable creation.

When it comes to launching new hit prod-

ucts, every large organization has internal

adjudicators or gatekeepers who can prevent

an idea from reaching its potential. The

solution, says Hartley, is to use world-class

adjudicators, preferably from outside the

organization, who are knowledgeable about

Finally, when launching a global hit product,

its important that assets equal opportuni-

ties. Says Hartley, If you have a vision of a

global hit product, your assetshuman and

nancialmust be appropriately sized to the

opportunity. If youre not going to do that,

you should just forget about innovation.

The team at Green Mountain Coffee

practices what they preach. But they are

not resting on their laurels. According to

Hartley, they intend to apply these principles

to achieving their ultimate objective: We

want to be the worlds largest single-serve

beverage company, he says. And new

global hit products will help us get there.

While some businesses are poised to extend their existing models tothe next wave of change to meet the challenge of a ercest competitor,

success is neither easy nor assured.

One way is to establish disruptive innova-

tions as separate organizational entities

with their own funding and leadership and

with a plan to integrate them after they

grow to scale. If there is a relationship to

the parent, it is usually arms length,

at least until the division grows large

enough to stand on its own. At that time,

it is reintegrated. This is how IBM entered

the personal computer business in the

1980s, and it was how W.W. Grainger

created a market-leading online capability,

Grainger.com, in the mid 1990s. Bottom

line: The more disruptive the business

model is to the parent company, the greater

distance it needs from the core.

There are, however, always the exceptions

that prove the rule. Though its not the

norm, with strong leadership and proper

guidance, disruptive business models can

be incubated closer to home. Cases in point:

Schwab Online and Green Mountain Coffee.

Schwab Online was created within the

overall Schwab structure and eventually

became the core of the new Schwab.

Likewise, Green Mountain Coffee has been

able to incubate radical inventions within

its core business. (See the sidebar below.)

driving vlu

While workshops can be intellectually

stimulating and encourage teamwork, if

value is not the result, the entire exercise

is in vain. If you are going to extract eco-

nomic value from the ercest competitor

design effort, you must look to accelerate

key internal initiatives, constrain others,

create new partnerships, and, in the case

of truly erce designs, avoid being seduced

by the hope that you can incubate this

new model within your own rm without

appropriate distance between the old and

the new. History shows that successful

companies will kill the new idea with kind-

ness if they are kept too close. Like a rogue

relative, a new idea needs time to develop

and mature before returning to the fold. If

your organization lacks the courage to give

new ideas a chance to thrive and grow, the

market will give birth to your worst night-

mare. If it has that courage and exploits it

to the fullest, you will succeed.

the ideas they are judging. The key is to

avoid the tyranny of the check markthe

naysayers who insist, Yeah, we tried that,

it didnt work. Often, when new products

founder, the blame rests with the internal

adjudicators. Because theyre judging new

products, they may lack adequate knowl-

edge of the customer or the market. Big

ideas can get so diluted prior to execution

that they barely resemble the original con-

cept. As Hartley points out, If you want to

set an infrastructure for launching hit prod-

ucts, the purity and power of the idea has to

be exposed to the consumer. Anything less

will result in failure.


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PwC ViewIssue 15

eitrial

Editorial Director

Tom Craren

Managing Editor

Gene Zasadinski

Assistant Managing Editor

Christine Wendin

View points Editor

Angela Pham

Contributing Editors

Mike Brewster

Emily Church

Cecily Dixon

Susan Eggleton

Benjamin Isgur

Sandy Lutz

Susan Poole

Anand RaoBill Sand

Jamie Yoder

onlin

Jeffrey Dreiblatt

Adiba Khan

Scott Schmidt

Jack Teuber

dsign

Odgis + Company

Creative Director

Janet Odgis

Senior Designer

Banu Berker

Designers

Rhian Swierat

T. Chlo Bartholomew

Cntributrs

We thank the following individuals for

their contributions to this issue ofView:

Caroline Calkins-Heine

Steve Lechner

Alfred Peguero

Daryl Walcroft

phtgrahy

AP Images

Brian Bielmann

Corbis Images

Bill Gallery

Getty Images

Andreas Herzau/Laif/Redux

iStockphoto

Vincent Laforet

Chen Ming/Xinhua/Eyevine/Redux

Tommaso Rada/4See/Redux

Reuters Pictures

Brian Smale

Stephen Wilkes

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12,070 lbs o solid waste was not generated

32,676 lbs net o greenhouse gases was prevented

158,000,000 BTUs o energy was not consumed

Source: Environmental Deense Fund paper calculator


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