5 luglio

JOURNALISTS IN Burma are “stifled” by a “climate of fear,” Amnesty International reported recently, finding “repression dressed up as progress.” The military government, after several years of pretend negotiations, recently vetoed constitutional changes that would have limited its power. Peace talks with ethnic groups have collapsed.Meanwhile, the Obama administration, in its annual human rights report released just over a week ago, cheers a “trend of progress since 2011.”Wai Wai Nu, a Burmese activist who recently visited Washington, is not surprised by the discrepancy. “The international perception is quite different from the reality,” she told us. “The human rights situation is deteriorating.”Conditions in Burma, a Southeast Asian nation of about 56 million people also known as Myanmar, did improve in 2012. Wai Wai Nu herself, imprisoned in 2005 at age 18 because her father was a pro-democracy politician, was released along with hundreds of other political prisoners. Nobel peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, the democracy leader who had spent the better part of two decades under house arrest, also was freed and allowed to contest and win a by-election for parliament. The U.S. government, eager to pocket a foreign-policy success, eased its sanctions on the generals and former generals running the country.The administration’s hope, shared by Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy, was that the regime would negotiate its own demise, in the fashion of South Africa’s apartheid government.

Alas, the generals seem to be reading from a different script. They have eagerly shed their pariah status, welcoming an influx of investment, but they seem determined that there will be no Nelson Mandelas in their country. Elections are scheduled for the fall, but Aung San Suu Kyi will not be permitted to run for president, and one-quarter of parliament seats will be reserved for the military without election.

Things are especially bad for the ethnic minority known as Rohingya, of which Wai Wai Nu is one, and for other Muslims. “People can demonstrate freely — against Muslims,” Wai Wai Nu noted. “But when people ask for their rights, or their education, or their land, they are arrested and charged.” And not only Muslims: Phyo Phyo Aung, another young former political prisoner, recently led a protest march — and was charged with violating the law in every township she walked through. There’s an “illusion of change,” Yan Htaik Seng, a project manager with BBC Media Action, told us, but censorship and fear-inspired self-censorship keep the media in a straitjacket.

U.S. officials hope that fall elections, even if held under an imperfect constitution, will empower pro-democracy parties enough to spur further change. That remains the sensible goal in a season of disappointment. But its fulfillment would be more likely if the administration acknowledged reality and adjusted policy accordingly, including, as Amnesty International argued, by pushing for an

end to repression. As the organization’s Southeast Asia research director Rupert Abbott said, “Authorities are still relying on the same old tactics — arrests, surveillance, threats and jail time to muzzle those journalists who cover ‘inconvenient’ topics.”

giugno 2015

HONG KONG — Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, the Nobel Peace laureate who leads Myanmar’s opposition, met with President Xi Jinping of China on Thursday, the second day of a trip that appears likely to underscore her transformation from a global icon of democracy to a politician with ambitions to form her country’s next government.Mr. Xi and Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi met at the Great Hall of the People, according to Xinhua, the state-run Chinese news agency, which provided few details of the meeting. Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi, who was invited to Beijing by the ruling Communist Party, is also expected to meet with Premier Li Keqiang during her five-day visit, U Nyan Win, a spokesman for her party, the National League for Democracy, said before her arrival in Beijing on Wednesday.Mr. Xi, the leader of the Communist Party, said the visit would help promote ties between the two countries and the two parties, Xinhua said on Twitter.

Though she has traveled around the world since her release from house arrest in 2010, this is Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi’s first visit to neighboring China, which had a close relationship with the military junta that imprisoned her for the better part of two decades. Despite that history

— and the fact that a fellow Nobel Peace laureate, the writer Liu Xiaobo, is serving an 11-year prison sentence in China for advocating the same democratic principles that Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi has championed — Mr. Nyan Win said she was not expected to chide the Communist Party on its human rights record.Continue reading the main storyHow Myanmar and Its Neighbors Are Responding to the Rohingya CrisisMs. Aung San Suu Kyi’s party may move from opposition to governance after elections likely to take place late this year, and regardless of who is in power, managing ties with China — the country’s biggest trading partner — will be essential to keeping Myanmar’s economy growing.“For her there would be very little value in getting offside with the Chinese government,” Nicholas Farrelly, the director of the Myanmar Research Center at Australian National University, said before the visit began. “And there would be much to be gained by increasing the level of confidence that the Chinese authorities would feel about her stepping into a senior position in Myanmar in the years ahead.”But such an approach would probably cause further damage to Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi’s reputation as a champion of human rights, which has already been hurt by her refusal to condemn Myanmar’s persecution of its Muslim Rohingya minority. Tens of thousands of Rohingya have fled Myanmar in recent months, spawning a regional crisis.“Suu Kyi’s silence on human rights has damaged her credibility as a leader,” Sophie Richardson, China director for the New York-based group Human Rights Watch, wrote before the trip began. “If she is silent on rights in China, those questions will only deepen.”Ms. Richardson said Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi should push for Mr. Liu’s immediate release from prison and call for Chinese companies doing business in Myanmar, formerly

called Burma, to end their “abusive and environmentally damaging practices.” The latter position would probably be popular in Myanmar, where many people, including opposition supporters, are wary of China’s economic footprint.

Chinese companies in Myanmar mine copper and jade, cut forests and build big infrastructure projects, including contentious gas and oil pipelines stretching from the Bay of Bengal to the Chinese province of Yunnan.In an English-language editorial published on Wednesday, Xinhua said Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi’s visit was a sign that the Communist Party not only communicates with parties with “the same ideology, but also those with a different political vision.” Relations between Myanmar and China cooled as the Myanmar government forged better ties with the United States starting in 2011. Still, as of 2013, about a third of Myanmar’s overseas trade was with China, with which it shares a 1,370-mile border.Ties were further strained in March, when Chinese officials said a bomb from a Myanmar warplane had exploded across the border in Yunnan Province, killing five farmers tending a sugar cane field. The Myanmar Army is fighting armed members of the ethnic Chinese Kokang minority in the border region.Mr. Nyan Win said the border issue would be on Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi’s agenda. “We need peace at the border for both countries,” he said.On Tuesday, a spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Hong Lei, said in Beijing that the visit would “promote the development of friendly and cooperative relations between China and Myanmar.”But the Xinhua editorial on Wednesday sounded a warning about the border issue. “There is also a reminder: China has no intention to interfere in Myanmar’s internal affairs, but is determined to protect its citizens from being caught in war launched from the other side of the border,” the editorial said.

25 giugno 2015

BANGKOK — Myanmar’s military flexed its muscle on Thursday, blocking moves to rescind its veto power in Parliament and refusing to ease a rule that helps prevent Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, the opposition leader and Nobel laureate, from eventually becoming president.The votes in Parliament, although not unexpected, were a reassertion of military power in Myanmar, which was ruled for five decades by the armed forces but has been experimenting in recent years with a more open and democratic system.Under the Constitution, which was written by a junta, the military controls a quarter of the seats in Parliament, enough to block any amendments to the charter.One vote on Thursday rejected a proposal to allow the Constitution to be amended with 70 percent of votes in Parliament instead of the 75 percent required now, which would have effectively removed the military’s veto.

Lawmakers also struck down a motion to amend a clause in the Constitution that bars anyone whose spouse or children have “allegiance to a foreign power” from becoming president or vice president. Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi’s husband, who died in 1999, was a British citizen, and so are their two sons.She would have remained ineligible even if the vote had passed, however, because the proposal would have removed only the clause relating to a candidate’s spouse.The votes on Thursday do not preclude Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi’s party, the National League for Democracy, from winning an election scheduled for this year. The Nobel laureate remains popular in the country, and her name — as well as that of her father, Aung San, the country’s independence hero — remains the most recognizable in the land.

Members of her party said after the vote that their campaign to elect Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi as president was not over.“We expected we would lose this vote,” said U Win Htein, a member of the party’s central executive committee. “We will continue campaigning within Parliament and outside the Parliament. At the very least, we will be showing people we are trying to amend a Constitution that they don’t want.”Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi, who holds a parliamentary seat, took part in Thursday’s votes.Analysts believe that her party could have significant bargaining power in the days after the election, which is expected in late October or November. Parliament selects the president and vice presidents after the election, setting the stage for political haggling between the opposition and the military establishment.Critics say Myanmar’s military has been out of sync with the democratization of the country. Military commanders have begun offensives against a number of armed ethnic forces, even as peace talks have continued. Those talks now seem unlikely to produce a national cease-fire that the government of President Thein Sein has been seeking.On Wednesday, a military representative in Parliament defended the army’s prominent role in the country in a speech accompanied by a slide show of tanks and heavy artillery.“It is necessary to keep the Myanmar military in the legislative and administrative sectors in order to protect and stand by the country in its time of need,” news outlets in Myanmar quoted the lawmaker, Tin Soe, as saying.The reassertion of military power has given rise to pessimism among those who had hoped for a swifter emergence of civilian control over the country.“Judging from the votes today, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi should rethink whether she should contest the elections at all,” a political commentator, U Yan Myo Thein, said

Thursday. “There’s no hope that she will become president.”

TIMELINE REFORM MYANMAR

Timeline: Reforms in Myanmar8 July 2015From the section Asia

A process of reform has been under way in Myanmar (also known as Burma) since November 2010, when military rule was replaced by a new military-backed civilian government. Here is a timeline of key developments.2010

Aung San Suu Kyi was released from house arrest in November 2010November: The main military-backed party, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), claims a resounding victory in the first elections for 20 years. Opposition groups allege widespread fraud and many Western countries condemn the vote as a sham. The junta says it marks the transition from military rule to a civilian democracy.A week after the election, Aung San Suu Kyi - who had been prevented from taking part - is released from house arrest.2011

Thein Sein was sworn in on 30 March 2011 alongside two vice presidents and the newly-elected parliamentJanuary: The government authorises internet access for Aung San Suu Kyi.March: Thein Sein is sworn in as president of a nominally civilian government and the transfer of powers to the new government is complete.May: The new government frees thousands of prisoners under an amnesty, but few political prisoners are among them and the move is dismissed by one rights group as "pathetic".August: Aung San Suu Kyi is allowed to leave Rangoon on a political visit; days later she meets President Thein Sein in Nay Pyi Taw.

September: President Thein Sein suspends construction of controversial Chinese-funded Myitsone hydroelectric dam, in move seen as showing greater openness to public opinion.October: More than 200 political prisoners are freed as part of a general amnesty. New labour laws allowing unions are passed.November: The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) agrees that Burma will chair the grouping in 2014. Aung San Suu Kyi says she will stand for election to parliament, as her party rejoins the political process.December: US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visits, meets Ms Aung San Suu Kyi and holds talks with President Thein Sein. The US offers to improve relations if democratic reforms continue.President Thein Sein signs a law allowing peaceful demonstrations for the first time. The NLD re-registers as a political party in advance of by-elections for parliament due to be held early in 2012.Burmese authorities agree a truce with rebels of the Shan ethnic group and order the military to stop operations against ethnic Kachin rebels.

US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton met Ms Suu Kyi in December 20112012January: The government signs a ceasefire with rebels of Karen ethnic group.A day later, hundreds of prisoners are released - among them the country's most prominent political prisoners, including veterans of the 1988 student protest movement, monks involved in the 2007 demonstrations and activists from many ethnic minority groups.April: Taking part in an election for the first time since 1990, the NLD wins 43 out of 45 seats in landmark parliamentary by-elections seen as a major test for Myanmar's reform drive. The polls are thought to have been generally free and fair.The US responds by easing sanctions on Myanmar. The EU also agrees to suspend most sanctions in Myanmar and opens an office in the biggest city, Rangoon.

Aung San Suu Kyi delivers her Nobel acceptance speech in Oslo on 16 June, 2012

In November 2012, Mr Obama made the first visit by a US president to Myanmar

June: Aung San Suu Kyi visits Norway to collect the Nobel Peace Prize she was awarded in 1991, before travelling on to the UK to meet old friends, family and to address parliament.Meanwhile, communal violence erupts in Rakhine state between Buddhists and Muslims, leaving some 80,000 people displaced.July: Aung San Suu Kyi makes her parliamentary debut, one of 43 members of the National League for Democracy (NLD) to have secured a seat.August: Myanmar removes 2,082 names from its blacklist which bars people deemed a threat to national security from entering or leaving the country.September: President Thein Sein visits the US, shortly after Aung San Suu Kyi also tours the country - she collects a Congressional Medal of Honour.October: Violence flares again in Rakhine, as aid agencies warn of a worsening humanitarian crisis.November: US President Barack Obama visits Myanmar on the first such visit by a US leader.December: The government announces that privately owned newspapers are to be allowed in Myanmar from April 2013 for the first time in almost 50 years.Myanmar ushers in the new year for the first time with a public countdown.2013

The Asian Development Bank resumed loans to Myanmar to boost its social and economic developmentJanuary: The government abolishes a 25-year-old ban on public gatherings of more than five people.The Asian Development Bank resumes loans to Myanmar for the first time in 30 years in an attempt to boost its social and economic development.February: The government and ethnic Kachin rebels reach an agreement to hold talks, after weeks of fighting in the north-east of the country.A report reveals that police fired military-issue white phosphorus grenades to disperse protesters at the controversial Monywa copper mine.Thein Sein embarks on his first European tour as head of state.

March: A dispute involving three Muslims in the central Burmese town of Meiktila triggers deadly clashes between Muslim and Buddhist communities.More than 40 people die in clashes and around 12,000 Muslims are displaced from their homes. A state of emergency is declared in the area.Thein Sein warns the government will use force to stop "political opportunists and religious extremists" from fomenting hatred between faiths.April: The European Union lifts its remaining trade, economic and individual sanctions - except those on arms sales - in response to Myanmar's political reform programme.Human rights groups criticise the move as premature, saying it reduces the leverage the EU has on Myanmar.A report says there is clear evidence of government complicity in ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity against Muslims in Rakhine state. The government rejects the allegations.

2014January: Myanmar finalises a landmark agreement to open its telecoms network opened up to foreign investment.May: US extends some sanctions for another year, saying that despite the recent reforms, rights abuses and army influence on politics and the economy persist.October: The Myanmar government announces it is releasing more than 3,000 prisoners including former military intelligence officers reputed to have been close to former Prime Minister Khin Nyunt.

President Thein Sein welcomes US President Barack ObamaNovember: Aung San Suu Kyi says reforms in the country have "stalled".US President Barack Obama visits the country and says he is "optimistic" about the political transition.2015January: The government agrees to hold talks with students after a rare protest march in Mandalay over a new education bill which they say curbs academic freedom and increases central control. The BBC's Jonah Fisher remarks that five years ago the government would not have agreed to talks.

February: A state of emergency is declared in the Kokang region following intense fighting between ethnic-minority rebels and the army.March: Student protests continue with hundreds being arrested around the country.

Aung San Suu Kyi checks the list of voters in a village in YangonApril: Several newspapers print black front pages to protest against the arrest and jailing of journalists in Myanmar, which has a history of heavy censorship.June: Parliament votes to keep the army's veto over constitutional change, dealing a blow to hopes for fuller democracy.July: The date for the first open general election with the potential widest participation of opposition parties is set for 8 November.

Myanmar sets historic general election date

8 July 2015From the section Asia

Myanmar has experienced dramatic reforms in the last four years

Burma's TransitionMyanmar votes to keep military veto

Profile: Myanmar President Thein Sein

Profile: Aung San Suu Kyi

Myanmar reforms stalled - Suu Kyi

Myanmar will go to the polls on 8 November in its first open general election in 25 years, officials say.

The vote is seen as a crucial next stage in steps towards full democracy.Reform in Myanmar (also called Burma) has been under way since 2010 when military rule was replaced by a military-backed civilian government.The ruling USDP faces a head-to-head contest with Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy. She won elections in 1990 that were scrapped.Dozens of other parties are also expected to take part in the vote.The election commission announcement, posted on its website, confirmed what a senior election official had told the BBC earlier on Wednesday.

Aung San Suu Kyi's party will say if it will stand within three days of the date being officially confirmedThe NLD won the last free general election in Myanmar in 1990 but the then-ruling military junta ignored the results.The party boycotted a national election in 2010 because its leader was barred from standing.Election laws said anyone serving a prison term could not stand and Ms Suu Kyi, a Nobel Peace laureate, had been convicted of breaching the terms of her house arrest in 2009. She was freed later in 2010.Eighty-three parties are likely to contest the polls and a quarter of the 664 parliamentary seats will be reserved for the military.A president will be chosen by parliament after the election but under the constitution Ms Suu Kyi is barred from taking the top job because her late husband was British and her two sons are British citizens.Two weeks ago parliamentarians voted down a motion to amend this clause. They also voted to keep the army's veto over constitutional change, dealing a blow to hopes for fuller democracy.The NLD has said it will formally announce if it intends to stand within three days of the election date officially being announced.But Soe Win Than of the BBC Burmese Service reports all political parties must contest at least three constituencies to exist as a party.He adds it is the first time in many decades a general election will be held with "the potential widest participation by the many opposition parties".

Ms Suu Kyi campaigned door to door on Saturday in Yangon and has hinted she will stand.

The long read: a look at what’s at stake in Myanmar’s landmark electionFiona MacGregorAugust 6, 2015

Myanmar this November will hold its first general election since the formation of a nominally civilian government in 2011, sweeping away more than five decades of military rule.With a political cast that includes the international democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi, military generals, the old vanguard of protesters from a 1988 student uprising and a new generation of young activists, the run up to the event on November 8 will draw worldwide attention.The question most commonly asked outside Myanmar is: “Can Aung San Suu Kyi win?”But any answer reveals just how convoluted Myanmar’s political system is.One thing is clear. Suu Kyi cannot become president after the next election.She is barred from the position under Article 59F of the constitution. It states that if one of your “legitimate children ... owes allegiance to a foreign power” you are disqualified. Both Suu Kyi’s sons have British passports, as was of course well known by the generals who drew up the constitution in 2008 (a constitution “backed” by 94 per cent of people a week after Cyclone Nargis devastated the country.)Even were Suu Kyi’s party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), to win a landslide victory – a result some observers have predicted – it would be effectively impossible for its MPs to change the constitution to allow her to take up the post. The military retains a 25 per cent block of unelected seats in the Hluttaw (parliament), and the constitution requires a 75 per cent majority before any amendment to it can be passed.The last attempt to do so, in June, failed despite a majority of elected parliamentarians having voted in favour of changing the clause that bars Suu Kyi from the top job.Observers believe it is extremely unlikely that whatever the election result, the military would be willing to allow her to assume the presidency. Such a move is what independent political analyst and former International Labour Organisation representative to Myanmar, Richard Horsey, describes as a “red line” for the generals.

The reluctance of the generals to step back from politics was reiterated last month when the country’s most powerful military leader, General Ming Aung Hlaing, spoke to the BBC. He said that the military would “respect the election result”, but made clear any handover by the general to a full civilian government would need to wait until ceasefire deals have been concluded with all of Myanmar’s many ethnic armed groups.“It could be five years or 10 years [until that happens] – I couldn’t say,” he told the BBC.So with the generals seeking to hold on to their power and Suu Kyi (who also spent 15 years under house arrest) barred from the presidency, should these elections still be considered a sign of democratic progress in Myanmar?Supporters of the president Thein Sein’s reforms point to an expanded media sector, increased platforms for political debate, and the involvement of international experts and independent observers. This should contribute, they say, towards an election very different from the sham poll of 2010 – which Suu Kyi’s party boycotted.Most observers agree the government is keen to see a credible election. However the military’s stranglehold, along with what rights groups have called an increasing “climate of fear” for journalists and a resurgence in political prisoner numbers, all raise serious questions about the extent of democratic freedoms.Even those who take a generally positive view of recent reforms, are becoming more circumspect when it comes to using the term “democratisation” in relation to Myanmar’s current situation.“I think ‘democratisation’ is the wrong word. I prefer ‘liberalisation’,” says Mr Horsey.“The military’s involvement in politics is not compatible with democratic norms, but the liberalisation process has gone pretty far, pretty fast – from a military dictatorship with no elections and where no debate or criticisms were allowed, to the current situation with one of the most vibrant print media in [South East Asia], pretty open discussion of politics, and – so far – a fairly impressive effort to deliver credible elections.”But the elections do face a number of significant practical challenges that must be overcome if they are to be considered free and fair.Armed conflicts continue in several states, and with time rapidly running out for any kind of nationwide ceasefire agreement to be signed before the election, the possibility remains that many people living within these areas will be unable to vote.A second potential problem lies with the voter lists. Suu Kyi and others have raised serious concerns about significant flaws in the current lists, which include many people who are deceased and omit a large number of living voters.Such technical errors are not unnatural in a country trying to modernise after years of isolation, but nevertheless present challenges for those hoping to deliver a fair result.

More politically damaging from an international view, however, is the fact that hundreds of thousands of people have been deliberately excluded from voter lists because they are Rohingya Muslims and not recognised by the government as citizens.Not everyone is as convinced about the progress of rights reforms in Myanmar as Mr Horsey.“We’re already seeing signs of the security services arresting more critics – students, journalists and activists – bringing into doubt the much-vaunted granting of basic freedoms of assembly, expression and association,” says David Mathieson, a senior researcher on Myanmar with Human Rights Watch.“The elections will in all likelihood be conducted transparently and with extensive civil society participation, far more than the tightly controlled farce of 2010, but the military knows full well that the elections won’t substantively challenge their interests, even when in 2016 a more representative parliament is formed.”Despite this, he says that the elections “will be a major step in a long-term process of achieving full democracy”.So how might Myanmar’s political landscape look immediately following the election?With no official opinion polls being carried out, ideas about the result remain speculative. About 30 million are eligible to vote out of a population of about 53 million, and few observers have so far been willing to make any kind of clear prediction.However, a survey conducted last year by Roman David of Lingnan University in Hong Kong and Ian Holliday of the University of Hong Kong in Myanmar’s two main regions (Yangon and Mandalay) and three of its ethnic states (Kachin, Kayin and Shan), found the NLD was by far the most popular party – supported by 52 per cent of prospective voters. The military-backed ruling party – the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) – was supported by just 19 per cent.Ethnic parties, when grouped together, would draw the support of 23 per cent of voters, according to the poll, giving their representatives a potentially influential role if neither of the two main parties win an outright majority.However, it seems Suu Kyi’s party is unwilling to form an alliance with the ethnic parties ahead of the elections. Myanmar’s first-past-the-post system, along with Suu Kyi’s support among the Bamar majority, gives the NLD a significant chance of gaining an overall majority.And while the ethic representative parties are likely to claim the majority of votes in their own regions, one increasingly powerful element could encourage more voters from the Buddhist Bamar majority to put their faith in the current rulers.Members of powerful group of Buddhist monks known as the Ma Ba Tha – whose demands have already led to the introduction of a number of contentious laws in the name of “protecting race and religion” – have called

on people not to vote for the NLD, which it declares to be soft on such matters .While Suu Kyi’s relative silence on the persecution of Rohingya Muslims in Rakhine state has drawn widespread international condemnation, even her tepid hints that the situation is not ideal have led to her being painted as “pro-Muslim” by Buddhist hardliners in Rakhine and elsewhere.With anti-Muslim sentiment running high among vast swathes of the Buddhist population (Rohingya are excluded from holding citizenship and are not allowed to vote), the impact of fundamentalist religious nationalism could potentially draw votes away from the NLD towards the USDP.However, rather than seeing such challenges as a sign she should work to build closer links with other allies, Suu Kyi – who has a reputation for refusing to compromise on internal party matters – appears to be pushing away those she considers a threat to her authority in the NLD.On August 2, the release of the NLD candidate lists revealed she had snubbed applications from a number of well-known activists, most notably Ko Ko Gyi, leader of 88 Generation Peace and Open Society, who took part in the 1988 student rebellion against military rule.The move has shocked political observers: they were set to have been shoo-ins and are now likely to stand as independents with party replacements unknown and are less likely to win. Either way, it means lost allies for Suu Kyi.So if not Suu Kyi, who might be the next president of Myanmar?The country’s president is not chosen directly be the electorate, nor would the post necessarily go to the leader of the party with the largest number of seats. Instead, the elected lower house, the elected upper house and the unelected military block will each put forward a presidential candidate. All members will then vote on which of the three should become president in a process that is expected to take until March or April to complete.Regardless of which party wins the largest number of seats a considerable amount of political horse-trading will have to go on before Myanmar learns who its next president will be.The NLD, which had been holding out until June for the possibility of a constitutional change that would have allowed Suu Kyi to stand, is yet to produce a clear candidate from within its own ranks.Rumours have long circulated that Suu Kyi and parliamentary speaker Shwe Mann, a former general and the current leader of the ruling USDP, have been working on a deal under which he would distance himself from the military and move closer to Suu Kyi’s goals. In return she would back him for the presidency, but he is also taking a chance that by supporting her, rather than the USDP, he’ll get the top job.Of course the possibility remains that the face of Myanmar’s presidency will remain the same. With a quarter of seats safely in military hands, the USDP would need to form a coalition amounting to just a third of the elected seats to ensure its preferred candidate becomes president.

Late last month, president Thein Sein, who for a time was thought to have ruled himself out the running, declared that he would consider standing again.So while these elections do offer the prospect for yet more changes in Myanmar’s rapidly developing society, there is the considerable likelihood that many aspects of the country’s political scene will not change.Sean Turnell, an economics professor from Macquarie University in Sydney who has written extensively about Myanmar, including on the 2010 election, says there is still reason for those who would seek greater democratic progress to remain optimistic – despite an unchanged agenda for the country’s military.“I think the motivation of the military remains the same,” he says referring to the generals’ goal of modernising the economy and creating wider international business ties to reduce the power and financial influence China gained over Myanmar during the decades it was subject to economic sanctions by other countries.But he suggests that while the military will cede as little power as possible, “events on election day, the results and both the reaction of the Burmese people and international community to these events and outcomes will determine all”.The military should not, he says, underestimate the Myanmar public’s desire for democracy.“My own feeling,” he says, “is that tiger might be beginning to stir”.Fiona MacGregor is a freelance journalist based in Yangon.

Floods won't stop election in Myanmar

Myanmar Eleven August 7, 2015 7:35 pmWhile Suu Kyi’s relative silence on the persecution of Rohingya Muslims in Rakhine state has drawn widespread international condemnation, even her tepid hints that the situation is not ideal have led to her being painted as “pro-Muslim” by Buddhist hardliners in Rakhine and elsewhere.With anti-Muslim sentiment running high among vast swathes of the Buddhist population (Rohingya are excluded from holding citizenship and are not allowed to vote), the impact of fundamentalist religious nationalism could potentially draw votes away from the NLD towards the USDP.However, rather than seeing such challenges as a sign she should work to build closer links with other allies, Suu Kyi – who has a reputation for refusing to compromise on internal party matters – appears to be pushing away those she considers a threat to her authority in the NLD.On August 2, the release of the NLD candidate lists revealed she had snubbed applications from a number of well-known activists, most notably Ko

Ko Gyi, leader of 88 Generation Peace and Open Society, who took part in the 1988 student rebellion against military rule.The move has shocked political observers: they were set to have been shoo-ins and are now likely to stand as independents with party replacements unknown and are less likely to win. Either way, it means lost allies for Suu Kyi.So if not Suu Kyi, who might be the next president of Myanmar?The country’s president is not chosen directly be the electorate, nor would the post necessarily go to the leader of the party with the largest number of seats. Instead, the elected lower house, the elected upper house and the unelected military block will each put forward a presidential candidate. All members will then vote on which of the three should become president in a process that is expected to take until March or April to complete.Regardless of which party wins the largest number of seats a considerable amount of political horse-trading will have to go on before Myanmar learns who its next president will be.The NLD, which had been holding out until June for the possibility of a constitutional change that would have allowed Suu Kyi to stand, is yet to produce a clear candidate from within its own ranks.Rumours have long circulated that Suu Kyi and parliamentary speaker Shwe Mann, a former general and the current leader of the ruling USDP, have been working on a deal under which he would distance himself from the military and move closer to Suu Kyi’s goals. In return she would back him for the presidency, but he is also taking a chance that by supporting her, rather than the USDP, he’ll get the top job.Of course the possibility remains that the face of Myanmar’s presidency will remain the same. With a quarter of seats safely in military hands, the USDP would need to form a coalition amounting to just a third of the elected seats to ensure its preferred candidate becomes president.Late last month, president Thein Sein, who for a time was thought to have ruled himself out the running, declared that he would consider standing again.So while these elections do offer the prospect for yet more changes in Myanmar’s rapidly developing society, there is the considerable likelihood that many aspects of the country’s political scene will not change.Sean Turnell, an economics professor from Macquarie University in Sydney who has written extensively about Myanmar, including on the 2010 election, says there is still reason for those who would seek greater democratic progress to remain optimistic – despite an unchanged agenda for the country’s military.“I think the motivation of the military remains the same,” he says referring to the generals’ goal of modernising the economy and creating wider international business ties to reduce the power and financial influence China gained over Myanmar during the decades it was subject to economic sanctions by other countries.

But he suggests that while the military will cede as little power as possible, “events on election day, the results and both the reaction of the Burmese people and international community to these events and outcomes will determine all”.The military should not, he says, underestimate the Myanmar public’s desire for democracy.“My own feeling,” he says, “is that tiger might be beginning to stir”.Fiona MacGregor is a freelance journalist based in Yangon.

Suu Kyi warns of election tampering after Myanmar floodsMyanmar's democracy icon Suu Kyi has voiced concerns that deadly floods could be used as a pretext for "upsetting" elections. She drew similarities to a 2008 referendum days after Cyclone Nargis left 140,000 people dead.

Myanmar's opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi said on Thursday that deadly flooding affecting large swathes of the country may be used as a pretext to unsettle elections."We do not want this natural disaster to be a reason for upsetting the necessary political process without which our country will not be able to make long term progress," Suu Kyi said in a video published on her Facebook page, which also called on international relief for massive floods wrecking havoc across the country.The pro-democracy icon drew similarities to a constitutional referendum that took place in May 2008, days after Cyclone Nargis left 140,000 people dead in its wake.The 2008 constitutional referendum "raised very many questions about the effectiveness of that referendum, about how acceptable the results of that referendum were," Suu Kyi said.

"We do not want such questions to be raised this time with regard to our elections. So let us deal with what we need to deal now, and in the best way possible, to make sure that future of our people, socially, economical and politically, is assured," the Nobel laureate said.Suu Kyi's statement comes as disastrous floods have claimed the lives of at least 69 people and left more than 250,000 people displaced.

NLD Amends Candidate List, Prominent Figures Still ExcludedBy KYAW PHYO THA / THE IRRAWADDY| Monday, August 10, 2015 |

RANGOON — Burma’s main opposition party has made over two dozen amendments to its candidate list for the upcoming general election, but prominent figures rejected by the party remained off the roster.Twenty-nine candidates originally selected to stand for the National League for Democracy (NLD) in the November 8 poll have been replaced, according to party spokesperson Nyan Win. A candidate has also been added to the list to run for a seat in the Upper House, bringing the total number of amendments or additions in the past week to 30.“We still have around 20 more [amendments] to come. We have made replacements as there are resignations and errors in the list. Most of them are caused by resignations,” Nyan Win told The Irrawaddy, without elaborating on the circumstances of those who resigned.Any changes that may yet transpire in Arakan, Mon and Karen states are not yet included in the amended list that was published in D-Wave, the NLD’s weekly newsletter, on Monday.The NLD’s original 1,090-name candidate list made public on August 1 attracted immediate controversy with well-known figures such as pro-democracy activist Ko Ko Gyi and Rangoon Division lawmaker Nyo Nyo Thin notable absentees.Public discontent has been matched by disaffection within the party’s membership, with resignations and public criticism over

the selection process conducted by the NLD’s central executive committee.On Friday, more than 300 people, including NLD members, staged a protest in Magwe Division’s Pakokku against the party’s selection of four local candidates demonstrators said were not supported by the local NLD township committee.The amended list contains no new candidates for the upcountry town in Magwe Division.NLD chairwoman Aung San Suu Kyi urged voters to overlook the controversy during visits to flood-hit Pegu and Magwe divisions in recent days.“Don’t worry about who the candidates are. I want to ask you to just cast a ballot for the party,” she said in Taungoo, Pegu Division, on Friday.