mathematics, power, and democracy - fernuniversität hagen · each voter may vote ‘yes’ or...
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Mathematics, Power, and
Democracy
Werner Kirsch
Fakultat fur Mathematik and Informatik
FernUniversitat Hagen
IMW; Bielefeld, November 2010
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Part of this talk is based joint work with Jessica Langner.
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
The well being of democracies regardless of their type and statusdepends on a small technical detail: the voting system.
Everything else is secondary.
Jose Ortega y Gasset
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Voting Systems (Parliaments)
A parliament is a voting system. The members of theparliament are the voters of this voting system.
Each voter may vote ‘Yes’ or ‘No’.Here and in what follows we neglect the possibility ofabstentions.
‘Normally’ a proposal is adopted if the number of votes infavor of the proposal is bigger than the number of votesagainst it (simple majority).
In some cases a qualified majority is required (e.g. two thirds),for example to make an amendment to the constitution.
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Voting Systems (Parliaments)
A parliament is a voting system. The members of theparliament are the voters of this voting system.
Each voter may vote ‘Yes’ or ‘No’.
Here and in what follows we neglect the possibility ofabstentions.
‘Normally’ a proposal is adopted if the number of votes infavor of the proposal is bigger than the number of votesagainst it (simple majority).
In some cases a qualified majority is required (e.g. two thirds),for example to make an amendment to the constitution.
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Voting Systems (Parliaments)
A parliament is a voting system. The members of theparliament are the voters of this voting system.
Each voter may vote ‘Yes’ or ‘No’.Here and in what follows we neglect the possibility ofabstentions.
‘Normally’ a proposal is adopted if the number of votes infavor of the proposal is bigger than the number of votesagainst it (simple majority).
In some cases a qualified majority is required (e.g. two thirds),for example to make an amendment to the constitution.
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Voting Systems (Parliaments)
A parliament is a voting system. The members of theparliament are the voters of this voting system.
Each voter may vote ‘Yes’ or ‘No’.Here and in what follows we neglect the possibility ofabstentions.
‘Normally’ a proposal is adopted if the number of votes infavor of the proposal is bigger than the number of votesagainst it (simple majority).
In some cases a qualified majority is required (e.g. two thirds),for example to make an amendment to the constitution.
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Voting Systems (Parliaments)
A parliament is a voting system. The members of theparliament are the voters of this voting system.
Each voter may vote ‘Yes’ or ‘No’.Here and in what follows we neglect the possibility ofabstentions.
‘Normally’ a proposal is adopted if the number of votes infavor of the proposal is bigger than the number of votesagainst it (simple majority).
In some cases a qualified majority is required (e.g. two thirds),for example to make an amendment to the constitution.
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Bundesrat – different voting weights for the members
Voting Rules
The members of the Bundesrates represent their states(Lander).
According to their population the states get a number of threeto six votes. ‘voting weights’ wi ∈ 3, 4, 5, 6The votes of a state have to be cast in a block.
As a rule, a proposal is approved if more than one half of thevotes are in favor. (Quota: 1/2)
For certain proposals a majority of two thirds is required.(Quota: 2/3)
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Bundesrat – different voting weights for the members
Voting Rules
The members of the Bundesrates represent their states(Lander).
According to their population the states get a number of threeto six votes. ‘voting weights’ wi ∈ 3, 4, 5, 6The votes of a state have to be cast in a block.
As a rule, a proposal is approved if more than one half of thevotes are in favor. (Quota: 1/2)
For certain proposals a majority of two thirds is required.(Quota: 2/3)
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Bundesrat – different voting weights for the members
Voting Rules
The members of the Bundesrates represent their states(Lander).
According to their population the states get a number of threeto six votes.
‘voting weights’ wi ∈ 3, 4, 5, 6The votes of a state have to be cast in a block.
As a rule, a proposal is approved if more than one half of thevotes are in favor. (Quota: 1/2)
For certain proposals a majority of two thirds is required.(Quota: 2/3)
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Bundesrat – different voting weights for the members
Voting Rules
The members of the Bundesrates represent their states(Lander).
According to their population the states get a number of threeto six votes. ‘voting weights’ wi ∈ 3, 4, 5, 6
The votes of a state have to be cast in a block.
As a rule, a proposal is approved if more than one half of thevotes are in favor. (Quota: 1/2)
For certain proposals a majority of two thirds is required.(Quota: 2/3)
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Bundesrat – different voting weights for the members
Voting Rules
The members of the Bundesrates represent their states(Lander).
According to their population the states get a number of threeto six votes. ‘voting weights’ wi ∈ 3, 4, 5, 6The votes of a state have to be cast in a block.
As a rule, a proposal is approved if more than one half of thevotes are in favor. (Quota: 1/2)
For certain proposals a majority of two thirds is required.(Quota: 2/3)
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Bundesrat – different voting weights for the members
Voting Rules
The members of the Bundesrates represent their states(Lander).
According to their population the states get a number of threeto six votes. ‘voting weights’ wi ∈ 3, 4, 5, 6The votes of a state have to be cast in a block.
As a rule, a proposal is approved if more than one half of thevotes are in favor. (Quota: 1/2)
For certain proposals a majority of two thirds is required.(Quota: 2/3)
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Bundesrat – different voting weights for the members
Voting Rules
The members of the Bundesrates represent their states(Lander).
According to their population the states get a number of threeto six votes. ‘voting weights’ wi ∈ 3, 4, 5, 6The votes of a state have to be cast in a block.
As a rule, a proposal is approved if more than one half of thevotes are in favor. (Quota: 1/2)
For certain proposals a majority of two thirds is required.(Quota: 2/3)
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Voting Systems (More Examples)
UN security council
Five permanent members(China, France, Russia, UK, USA)
Ten non permanent members(Austria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Brasil, Gabon, Japan,Lebanon, Mexico, Nigeria, Turkey, Uganda)
A proposal is approved if both
All permanent members affirm it andAt least four non permanent members do.
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
International Monetary Fund (cont’d)
The number of votes of a country in the Board of Governors isconnected with the country’s economic strength (through a rathersophisticated formula). Here are the voting weights for a fewcountries:
United States 371743Japan 133378Germany 130332France 107635UK 107635China 81151
......
Palau 281
For many important decisions of the IMF a majority of 85 % isrequired. The US-share is 16.74 % . . .
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
International Monetary Fund (cont’d)
The number of votes of a country in the Board of Governors isconnected with the country’s economic strength (through a rathersophisticated formula). Here are the voting weights for a fewcountries:
United States 371743Japan 133378Germany 130332France 107635UK 107635China 81151
......
Palau 281
For many important decisions of the IMF a majority of 85 % isrequired.
The US-share is 16.74 % . . .
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
International Monetary Fund (cont’d)
The number of votes of a country in the Board of Governors isconnected with the country’s economic strength (through a rathersophisticated formula). Here are the voting weights for a fewcountries:
United States 371743Japan 133378Germany 130332France 107635UK 107635China 81151
......
Palau 281
For many important decisions of the IMF a majority of 85 % isrequired. The US-share is 16.74 % . . .
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
The Council of the EU
The Council of the EU is one of the law making institutions ofthe EU.
The Council of Ministers consists of representatives of thegovernments of the member states, one representative foreach state.
The members of the Council used to have a voting weightdepending on the population of the country they represent.
Since 2004 the voting procedure in the Council is morecomplicated:
A three step procedure after the Nice Treaty (currentprocedure).‘Double Majority’ after the Lisbon Treaty (in effect after 2014).
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
The Council of the EU
The Council of the EU is one of the law making institutions ofthe EU.
The Council of Ministers consists of representatives of thegovernments of the member states, one representative foreach state.
The members of the Council used to have a voting weightdepending on the population of the country they represent.
Since 2004 the voting procedure in the Council is morecomplicated:
A three step procedure after the Nice Treaty (currentprocedure).‘Double Majority’ after the Lisbon Treaty (in effect after 2014).
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
The Council of the EU
The Council of the EU is one of the law making institutions ofthe EU.
The Council of Ministers consists of representatives of thegovernments of the member states, one representative foreach state.
The members of the Council used to have a voting weightdepending on the population of the country they represent.
Since 2004 the voting procedure in the Council is morecomplicated:
A three step procedure after the Nice Treaty (currentprocedure).‘Double Majority’ after the Lisbon Treaty (in effect after 2014).
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
The Council of the EU
The Council of the EU is one of the law making institutions ofthe EU.
The Council of Ministers consists of representatives of thegovernments of the member states, one representative foreach state.
The members of the Council used to have a voting weightdepending on the population of the country they represent.
Since 2004 the voting procedure in the Council is morecomplicated:
A three step procedure after the Nice Treaty (currentprocedure).‘Double Majority’ after the Lisbon Treaty (in effect after 2014).
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
The Council of the EU
Example:Council until 2004
Germany 10 Belgium 5
France 10 Sweden 4
UK 10 Austria 4
Italy 10 Denmark 3
Spain 8 Finland 3
Netherlands 5 Ireland 3
Greece 5 Luxembourg 2
Portugal 5
Quota 71,2%at least 62 out of 87 votes
Since 2004 the voting procedure in the Council is morecomplicated:
A three step procedure after the Nice Treaty (currentprocedure).‘Double Majority’ after the Lisbon Treaty (in effect after 2014).
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
The Council of the EU
The Council of the EU is one of the law making institutions ofthe EU.
The Council of Ministers consists of representatives of thegovernments of the member states, one representative foreach state.
The members of the Council used to have a voting weightdepending on the population of the country they represent.
Since 2004 the voting procedure in the Council is morecomplicated:
A three step procedure after the Nice Treaty (currentprocedure).‘Double Majority’ after the Lisbon Treaty (in effect after 2014).
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
The Council of the EU
The Council of the EU is one of the law making institutions ofthe EU.
The Council of Ministers consists of representatives of thegovernments of the member states, one representative foreach state.
The members of the Council used to have a voting weightdepending on the population of the country they represent.
Since 2004 the voting procedure in the Council is morecomplicated:
A three step procedure after the Nice Treaty (currentprocedure).
‘Double Majority’ after the Lisbon Treaty (in effect after 2014).
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
The Council of the EU
The Council of the EU is one of the law making institutions ofthe EU.
The Council of Ministers consists of representatives of thegovernments of the member states, one representative foreach state.
The members of the Council used to have a voting weightdepending on the population of the country they represent.
Since 2004 the voting procedure in the Council is morecomplicated:
A three step procedure after the Nice Treaty (currentprocedure).‘Double Majority’ after the Lisbon Treaty (in effect after 2014).
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Questions
How much power does a voter have in a given voting system ?For example: Is the voting weight a good measure for power?And what about more complicated voting systems?
What is a ‘fair’ distribution of power?. . . for example among the member states of the EU.
How effective is the voting system? For example: Are thereblocking minorities which can screw up the system?
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Questions
How much power does a voter have in a given voting system ?For example: Is the voting weight a good measure for power?And what about more complicated voting systems?
What is a ‘fair’ distribution of power?. . . for example among the member states of the EU.
How effective is the voting system? For example: Are thereblocking minorities which can screw up the system?
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Questions
How much power does a voter have in a given voting system ?For example: Is the voting weight a good measure for power?And what about more complicated voting systems?
What is a ‘fair’ distribution of power?. . . for example among the member states of the EU.
How effective is the voting system? For example: Are thereblocking minorities which can screw up the system?
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Questions
How much power does a voter have in a given voting system ?For example: Is the voting weight a good measure for power?And what about more complicated voting systems?
What is a ‘fair’ distribution of power?. . . for example among the member states of the EU.
How effective is the voting system? For example: Are thereblocking minorities which can screw up the system?
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Example
Council of Ministers of the EEC
Germany 4 votesFrance 4 votesItaly 4 votesNetherlands 2 votesBelgium 2 votesLuxembourg 1 vote
To approve a proposal 12 (out of 17) were needed. (quota 70%)
The voting weight is not (always) a good measure for power.
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Example
Council of Ministers of the EEC
Germany 4 votesFrance 4 votesItaly 4 votesNetherlands 2 votesBelgium 2 votesLuxembourg 1 vote
To approve a proposal 12 (out of 17) were needed. (quota 70%)
The voting weight is not (always) a good measure for power.
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Voting Systems (Mathematical Definition)
Definition
A voting system consists of a finite set V of voters and a subset Wof the power set P(V ). A subset M of V is called a coalition, thesets M in W are called winning coalitions.
We suppose:
V ∈ W (grand coalition)
∅ 6∈ W (empty coalition)
If A ⊂ B and A ∈ W then B ∈ W.
Weighted Voting Systems
A voting systems (V ,W) is called weighted, if there a functionw : V → R+ (weight) and a number q (quota), such that
A ∈ W ⇔∑v∈A
w(v) ≥ q∑v∈V
w(v)
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Voting Systems (Mathematical Definition)
Definition
A voting system consists of a finite set V of voters and a subset Wof the power set P(V ). A subset M of V is called a coalition, thesets M in W are called winning coalitions.We suppose:
V ∈ W (grand coalition)
∅ 6∈ W (empty coalition)
If A ⊂ B and A ∈ W then B ∈ W.
Weighted Voting Systems
A voting systems (V ,W) is called weighted, if there a functionw : V → R+ (weight) and a number q (quota), such that
A ∈ W ⇔∑v∈A
w(v) ≥ q∑v∈V
w(v)
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Voting Systems (Mathematical Definition)
Definition
A voting system consists of a finite set V of voters and a subset Wof the power set P(V ). A subset M of V is called a coalition, thesets M in W are called winning coalitions.We suppose:
V ∈ W (grand coalition)
∅ 6∈ W (empty coalition)
If A ⊂ B and A ∈ W then B ∈ W.
Weighted Voting Systems
A voting systems (V ,W) is called weighted, if there a functionw : V → R+ (weight) and a number q (quota), such that
A ∈ W ⇔∑v∈A
w(v) ≥ q∑v∈V
w(v)
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
UN Security Council
Reminder: 5 permanent members, 10 nonpermanent membersWinning coalitions: All 5 permanent members and 4 (or more)nonpermanent members
The UN Security Council is a weighted voting system, as we mayset:
w(x) :=
7, for permanent members x ;1, for nonpermanent members.
andq := 39
Not every voting system can be written as a weighted votingsystem.
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
UN Security Council
Reminder: 5 permanent members, 10 nonpermanent membersWinning coalitions: All 5 permanent members and 4 (or more)nonpermanent membersThe UN Security Council is a weighted voting system, as we mayset:
w(x) :=
7, for permanent members x ;1, for nonpermanent members.
andq := 39
Not every voting system can be written as a weighted votingsystem.
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
UN Security Council
Reminder: 5 permanent members, 10 nonpermanent membersWinning coalitions: All 5 permanent members and 4 (or more)nonpermanent membersThe UN Security Council is a weighted voting system, as we mayset:
w(x) :=
7, for permanent members x ;1, for nonpermanent members.
andq := 39
Not every voting system can be written as a weighted votingsystem.
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Power Indices
The Banzhaf-Index
If A ∈ W and v ∈ A then v is called decisive for the coalition A ifA \ v 6∈ W .
D(v) := A ∈ W | v is decisive for A
The Banzhaf-Power B(v) of a voter v is defined as
B(v) :=1
2#V−1 #D(v)
The Banzhaf-Index β(v) of a voter v is defined as
β(v) :=B(v)∑
u∈VB(u)
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Example: Council of Ministers of the EEC
Country Votes Banzhaf IndexBelgium 11.8 % 14.3 %France 23.5 % 23.8 %Italy 23.5 % 23.8 %Germany 23.5 % 23.8 %Luxembourg 5.9 % 0.0 %Netherlands 11.8 % 14.3 %
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Belgium 2 votesFrance 4 votesItaly 4 votesGermany 4 votesLuxembourg 1 voteNetherlands 2 votes
Quota 12
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Power Indices II
The Shapley-Shubik-Index
For the Shapley-Shubik-Index we consider permutations π ∈ SV(rather than subsets of V ).We say that a voter v is decisive for a permutationπ = (π1, π2, . . . , πN) ∈ SV , (We set N := #V ), if v = πν and
πj | j ≤ ν ∈ Wbut πj | j < ν 6∈ W
We define the Shapley-Shubik-Index σ(v) of a voter v by
σ(v) :=1
#(SV )#π ∈ SV | v is decisive for π
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Power-Indices
Power Indices measure ‘how frequently’ it happens that a givenvoter is decisive.
We will, in deed, give it a probabilistic interpretation later.
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Power-Indices
Power Indices measure ‘how frequently’ it happens that a givenvoter is decisive.
We will, in deed, give it a probabilistic interpretation later.
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Multi-Layer Voting Systems
Typical Examples
Each member state of the EU (or the IMF) is represented byone delegate in the Council of Ministers (or the board ofGovernors).
The delegate of a country has a given voting weightdepending on the population (or the economic strength) of hiscountry. This vote cannot be split.
We assume that the delegates follow the majority vote in theirrespective country.
This constitutes a two-layer (or two-step) voting system forthe citizens in these countries.
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Multi-Layer Voting Systems
Typical Examples
Each member state of the EU (or the IMF) is represented byone delegate in the Council of Ministers (or the board ofGovernors).
The delegate of a country has a given voting weightdepending on the population (or the economic strength) of hiscountry. This vote cannot be split.
We assume that the delegates follow the majority vote in theirrespective country.
This constitutes a two-layer (or two-step) voting system forthe citizens in these countries.
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Multi-Layer Voting Systems
Typical Examples
Each member state of the EU (or the IMF) is represented byone delegate in the Council of Ministers (or the board ofGovernors).
The delegate of a country has a given voting weightdepending on the population (or the economic strength) of hiscountry. This vote cannot be split.
We assume that the delegates follow the majority vote in theirrespective country.
This constitutes a two-layer (or two-step) voting system forthe citizens in these countries.
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Multi-Layer Voting Systems
Typical Examples
Each member state of the EU (or the IMF) is represented byone delegate in the Council of Ministers (or the board ofGovernors).
The delegate of a country has a given voting weightdepending on the population (or the economic strength) of hiscountry. This vote cannot be split.
We assume that the delegates follow the majority vote in theirrespective country.
This constitutes a two-layer (or two-step) voting system forthe citizens in these countries.
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Mathematical Formulation
The set of voters consists of M disjoint sets Sν , ν = 1, . . . ,M(states). The set Sν contains Nν elements.The vote cast by the voter number i in state Sν is denoted by Xνi .
Xνi =
+1, if he/she votes ‘YES’;−1, if she/he votes ‘NO’.
The popular vote Xν in state Sν is given by:
Xν =Nν∑i=1
Xνi
With χ(x) =
+1, if x > 0;−1, if x ≤ 0.
the voting behavior of the
delegate of Sν is given by
Yν = χ(Xν)
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
If we give the state Sν a weight wν then the voting outcome in theCouncil is
M∑ν=1
wν Yν =M∑ν=1
wν χ( Nν∑i=1
Xνi)
We consider a two-layer voting system as ‘fair’ if the voting resultin the council is as close as possible to the popular voteM∑ν=1
Nν∑i=1
Xνi , i.e. we want to minimize (with respect to the wν ):
∆ :=∣∣∣ M∑ν=1
wν χ( Nν∑i=1
Xνi)−
M∑ν=1
Nν∑i=1
Xνi
∣∣∣The quantity ∆ is called the democracy deficit of the votingsystem.Note, that it is impossible to make ∆ identically equal to zero!
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
If we give the state Sν a weight wν then the voting outcome in theCouncil is
M∑ν=1
wν Yν =M∑ν=1
wν χ( Nν∑i=1
Xνi)
We consider a two-layer voting system as ‘fair’ if the voting resultin the council is as close as possible to the popular voteM∑ν=1
Nν∑i=1
Xνi , i.e. we want to minimize (with respect to the wν ):
∆ :=∣∣∣ M∑ν=1
wν χ( Nν∑i=1
Xνi)−
M∑ν=1
Nν∑i=1
Xνi
∣∣∣
The quantity ∆ is called the democracy deficit of the votingsystem.Note, that it is impossible to make ∆ identically equal to zero!
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
If we give the state Sν a weight wν then the voting outcome in theCouncil is
M∑ν=1
wν Yν =M∑ν=1
wν χ( Nν∑i=1
Xνi)
We consider a two-layer voting system as ‘fair’ if the voting resultin the council is as close as possible to the popular voteM∑ν=1
Nν∑i=1
Xνi , i.e. we want to minimize (with respect to the wν ):
∆ :=∣∣∣ M∑ν=1
wν χ( Nν∑i=1
Xνi)−
M∑ν=1
Nν∑i=1
Xνi
∣∣∣The quantity ∆ is called the democracy deficit of the votingsystem.
Note, that it is impossible to make ∆ identically equal to zero!
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
If we give the state Sν a weight wν then the voting outcome in theCouncil is
M∑ν=1
wν Yν =M∑ν=1
wν χ( Nν∑i=1
Xνi)
We consider a two-layer voting system as ‘fair’ if the voting resultin the council is as close as possible to the popular voteM∑ν=1
Nν∑i=1
Xνi , i.e. we want to minimize (with respect to the wν ):
∆ :=∣∣∣ M∑ν=1
wν χ( Nν∑i=1
Xνi)−
M∑ν=1
Nν∑i=1
Xνi
∣∣∣The quantity ∆ is called the democracy deficit of the votingsystem.Note, that it is impossible to make ∆ identically equal to zero!
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
It seems therefore reasonable to minimize
E(∆2) = E( ( M∑
ν=1
wν χ( Nν∑i=1
Xνi)−
M∑ν=1
Nν∑i=1
Xνi)2 )
which is some kind of mean square error.
But . . .
. . . what is E supposed to mean?
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
It seems therefore reasonable to minimize
E(∆2) = E( ( M∑
ν=1
wν χ( Nν∑i=1
Xνi)−
M∑ν=1
Nν∑i=1
Xνi)2 )
which is some kind of mean square error.
But . . .
. . . what is E supposed to mean?
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
General Framework
The voting system is fed with proposals in a completely randomway.
The voters react to the (random) proposal in a deterministicrational way.
The randomness of the proposals induce a probability measure Pon the space −1,+1V .A proposal ω and its counter-proposal ¬ω should have the sameprobability.The rationality of the voting implies that Xv (¬ω) = −Xv (ω)) .Consequently, the probability P is invariant under inversion
(X1, . . . ,XN) −→ (−X1, . . . ,−XN)
In particular:
P(Xi = 1) = P(Xi = −1) =1
2
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
General Framework
The voting system is fed with proposals in a completely randomway.The voters react to the (random) proposal in a deterministicrational way.
The randomness of the proposals induce a probability measure Pon the space −1,+1V .A proposal ω and its counter-proposal ¬ω should have the sameprobability.The rationality of the voting implies that Xv (¬ω) = −Xv (ω)) .Consequently, the probability P is invariant under inversion
(X1, . . . ,XN) −→ (−X1, . . . ,−XN)
In particular:
P(Xi = 1) = P(Xi = −1) =1
2
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
General Framework
The voting system is fed with proposals in a completely randomway.The voters react to the (random) proposal in a deterministicrational way.
The randomness of the proposals induce a probability measure Pon the space −1,+1V .A proposal ω and its counter-proposal ¬ω should have the sameprobability.The rationality of the voting implies that Xv (¬ω) = −Xv (ω)) .Consequently, the probability P is invariant under inversion
(X1, . . . ,XN) −→ (−X1, . . . ,−XN)
In particular:
P(Xi = 1) = P(Xi = −1) =1
2
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Examples
Independent Voters
If the voting behavior Xi of the voter i is independent from theother voters, then P is just a product measures P0 withP0 = 1
2(δ−1 + δ+1) .
Remark
The Banzhaf B(v) can be expressed through this measure, namely:
B(v) = 2P(D(v)
)
Reminder:
D(v) := A ∈ W | v is decisive for A
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Examples
Independent Voters
If the voting behavior Xi of the voter i is independent from theother voters, then P is just a product measures P0 withP0 = 1
2(δ−1 + δ+1) .
Remark
The Banzhaf B(v) can be expressed through this measure, namely:
B(v) = 2P(D(v)
)
Reminder:
D(v) := A ∈ W | v is decisive for A
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Examples
Notation
We set:
Q = Q(N) :=N⊗i=1
(1
2δ1 +
1
2δ−1)
and (to be used later):
Qp = Q(N)p :=
N⊗i=1
(pδ1 + (1− p)δ−1
)
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Examples
The CBM
For the Common Believe Model (CBM) (or Collective Bias Model(CBM) ) we suppose there is a strong common value system, forexample there may be a strong church or religious group or astate-wide ideology or the media may be under the control of asmall group of people or . . .
This common believe (or collective bias) is expressed through arandom variable Z with values in the interval [−1, 1] anddistribution µ .We define
Pµ(A) :=
∫[−1,1]
Q 12(1+z)(A) dµ(z)
If µ = δ0 we get back to the independent voters model.
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Examples
The CBM
For the Common Believe Model (CBM) (or Collective Bias Model(CBM) ) we suppose there is a strong common value system, forexample there may be a strong church or religious group or astate-wide ideology or the media may be under the control of asmall group of people or . . .This common believe (or collective bias) is expressed through arandom variable Z with values in the interval [−1, 1] anddistribution µ .
We define
Pµ(A) :=
∫[−1,1]
Q 12(1+z)(A) dµ(z)
If µ = δ0 we get back to the independent voters model.
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Examples
The CBM
For the Common Believe Model (CBM) (or Collective Bias Model(CBM) ) we suppose there is a strong common value system, forexample there may be a strong church or religious group or astate-wide ideology or the media may be under the control of asmall group of people or . . .This common believe (or collective bias) is expressed through arandom variable Z with values in the interval [−1, 1] anddistribution µ .We define
Pµ(A) :=
∫[−1,1]
Q 12(1+z)(A) dµ(z)
If µ = δ0 we get back to the independent voters model.
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Examples
The CBM
For the Common Believe Model (CBM) (or Collective Bias Model(CBM) ) we suppose there is a strong common value system, forexample there may be a strong church or religious group or astate-wide ideology or the media may be under the control of asmall group of people or . . .This common believe (or collective bias) is expressed through arandom variable Z with values in the interval [−1, 1] anddistribution µ .We define
Pµ(A) :=
∫[−1,1]
Q 12(1+z)(A) dµ(z)
If µ = δ0 we get back to the independent voters model.
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Examples
Remarks
The measure Pµ is spin-flip invariant, if µ is symmetric (at 0).
If µ is the uniform distribution on [−1, 1], then theShapley-Shubik-Index σ(v) can be expressed as:
Pµ(D(v)
)
D(v) := A ∈ W | v is decisive for A
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Examples
Remarks
The measure Pµ is spin-flip invariant, if µ is symmetric (at 0).
If µ is the uniform distribution on [−1, 1], then theShapley-Shubik-Index σ(v) can be expressed as:
Pµ(D(v)
)
D(v) := A ∈ W | v is decisive for A
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Fair representation
We return to the question of fair voting weights.
We recall that we want to chose the weights wν in such a way,that the democracy deficit
∆ :=∣∣∣ M∑ν=1
wν χ( Nν∑i=1
Xνi)−
M∑ν=1
Nν∑i=1
Xνi
∣∣∣is as small as possible,
in the sense, that we try to minimize
E(∆2) = E( ( M∑
ν=1
wν χ( Nν∑i=1
Xνi)−
M∑ν=1
Nν∑i=1
Xνi)2 )
Let us assume, that voters in different states act in an independentway of each others, i.e. Xνi and Xρj with ν 6= ρ are independent ofeach others.
But Xνi and Xνj may be dependent.
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Fair representation
We return to the question of fair voting weights.
We recall that we want to chose the weights wν in such a way,that the democracy deficit
∆ :=∣∣∣ M∑ν=1
wν χ( Nν∑i=1
Xνi)−
M∑ν=1
Nν∑i=1
Xνi
∣∣∣is as small as possible,in the sense, that we try to minimize
E(∆2) = E( ( M∑
ν=1
wν χ( Nν∑i=1
Xνi)−
M∑ν=1
Nν∑i=1
Xνi)2 )
Let us assume, that voters in different states act in an independentway of each others, i.e. Xνi and Xρj with ν 6= ρ are independent ofeach others.
But Xνi and Xνj may be dependent.
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Fair representation
We return to the question of fair voting weights.
We recall that we want to chose the weights wν in such a way,that the democracy deficit
∆ :=∣∣∣ M∑ν=1
wν χ( Nν∑i=1
Xνi)−
M∑ν=1
Nν∑i=1
Xνi
∣∣∣is as small as possible,in the sense, that we try to minimize
E(∆2) = E( ( M∑
ν=1
wν χ( Nν∑i=1
Xνi)−
M∑ν=1
Nν∑i=1
Xνi)2 )
Let us assume, that voters in different states act in an independentway of each others, i.e. Xνi and Xρj with ν 6= ρ are independent ofeach others.
But Xνi and Xνj may be dependent.
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Fair representation
We return to the question of fair voting weights.
We recall that we want to chose the weights wν in such a way,that the democracy deficit
∆ :=∣∣∣ M∑ν=1
wν χ( Nν∑i=1
Xνi)−
M∑ν=1
Nν∑i=1
Xνi
∣∣∣is as small as possible,in the sense, that we try to minimize
E(∆2) = E( ( M∑
ν=1
wν χ( Nν∑i=1
Xνi)−
M∑ν=1
Nν∑i=1
Xνi)2 )
Let us assume, that voters in different states act in an independentway of each others, i.e. Xνi and Xρj with ν 6= ρ are independent ofeach others.
But Xνi and Xνj may be dependent.
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Fair Representation
Result
The quantity E(∆2) is minimized by the choice
wν = E(∣∣ Nν∑
i=1
Xνi∣∣)
Independent Voters
For independent Xνi we have (for large Nν):
E(∣∣ Nν∑
i=1
Xi
∣∣) ' √Nν
by the central limit theorem.
Square root law by Penrose.
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Fair Representation
Result
The quantity E(∆2) is minimized by the choice
wν = E(∣∣ Nν∑
i=1
Xνi∣∣)
Independent Voters
For independent Xνi we have (for large Nν):
E(∣∣ Nν∑
i=1
Xi
∣∣) ' √Nν
by the central limit theorem.
Square root law by Penrose.
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Fair Representation
Result
Eµ(∣∣ Nν∑
i=1
Xi
∣∣) ' ∫|z | dµ(z) Nν
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Voting models as spin systems
The space −1,+1N with the probability measure P can belooked upon as a spin system which is invariant under spin flips.Let Q(N) denote the uniform distribution on Ω = −1,+1N .Q(N) corresponds to independent, identically distributed (anduniformly distributed) Xi .Any probability measure P on Ω which is spin-flip invariant can bewritten as
P = Z−1 eβH(x1,...,xN)Q(N)
where Z is a normalizing constantand H(x1, . . . , xN) = H(−x1, . . . ,−xN)where β plays the role of an inverse temperature (or a couplingstrength).
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Examples
H(X1, . . . ,XN) ≡ 1 gives the model with independent voters.
The Common Believe Model can be interpreted as a system ofnoninteracting spins in a random, but constant magnetic field.
The Curie-Weiss Model is given by the Hamiltonian
HCW (x1, . . . , xN) = − 1
2N
( N∑i=1
Xi
)2.
In this model the spins (voters) tend to behave in the sameway as (the average of) the others. If the parameter β is verysmall, the spins are almost independent, if β is very largealmost all of the spins are aligned.
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Examples
H(X1, . . . ,XN) ≡ 1 gives the model with independent voters.
The Common Believe Model can be interpreted as a system ofnoninteracting spins in a random, but constant magnetic field.
The Curie-Weiss Model is given by the Hamiltonian
HCW (x1, . . . , xN) = − 1
2N
( N∑i=1
Xi
)2.
In this model the spins (voters) tend to behave in the sameway as (the average of) the others. If the parameter β is verysmall, the spins are almost independent, if β is very largealmost all of the spins are aligned.
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Examples
H(X1, . . . ,XN) ≡ 1 gives the model with independent voters.
The Common Believe Model can be interpreted as a system ofnoninteracting spins in a random, but constant magnetic field.
The Curie-Weiss Model is given by the Hamiltonian
HCW (x1, . . . , xN) = − 1
2N
( N∑i=1
Xi
)2.
In this model the spins (voters) tend to behave in the sameway as (the average of) the others. If the parameter β is verysmall, the spins are almost independent, if β is very largealmost all of the spins are aligned.
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Optimal Weights for the Curie-Weiss Model
Results
For β < 1 we have
ECWβ
(∣∣ N∑i=1
Xi
∣∣) ' √NFor β > 1 we have
ECWβ
(∣∣ Nν∑i=1
Xi
∣∣) ' N
For β = 1 we have
ECWβ
(∣∣ Nν∑i=1
Xi
∣∣) ' N34
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Optimal Weights for the Curie-Weiss Model
Results
For β < 1 we have
ECWβ
(∣∣ N∑i=1
Xi
∣∣) ' √NFor β > 1 we have
ECWβ
(∣∣ Nν∑i=1
Xi
∣∣) ' N
For β = 1 we have
ECWβ
(∣∣ Nν∑i=1
Xi
∣∣) ' N34
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Reality Check
In the EU with 27 member states there exist currently two votingsystems for the Council of Ministers
The voting system of Nice which was decided in Nice in 2000.The system is currently used.
The voting system of Lisbon which was negotiated in Lisbonin 2007 and ratified last year. It will be effective in 2014 or so.
The Polish government tried to block the Lisbon treaty becausethey believed that according to this treaty Poland isunder-represented in the Council.
In fact, their slogan was:
Square root or death.
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Reality Check
In the EU with 27 member states there exist currently two votingsystems for the Council of Ministers
The voting system of Nice which was decided in Nice in 2000.The system is currently used.
The voting system of Lisbon which was negotiated in Lisbonin 2007 and ratified last year. It will be effective in 2014 or so.
The Polish government tried to block the Lisbon treaty becausethey believed that according to this treaty Poland isunder-represented in the Council.
In fact, their slogan was:
Square root or death.
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Reality Check
In the EU with 27 member states there exist currently two votingsystems for the Council of Ministers
The voting system of Nice which was decided in Nice in 2000.The system is currently used.
The voting system of Lisbon which was negotiated in Lisbonin 2007 and ratified last year. It will be effective in 2014 or so.
The Polish government tried to block the Lisbon treaty becausethey believed that according to this treaty Poland isunder-represented in the Council.
In fact, their slogan was:
Square root or death.
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Reality Check: Nice and Lisbon vs. Square Root
State Nice Lisbon State Nice Lisbon
Germany -18,45 24,34 Austria 3,63 -15,50
France -4,05 7,67 Bulgaria 5,08 -15,15
UK -3,81 7,44 Denmark -10,52 -10,04
Italy -2,14 6,06 Slowakia -10,48 -10,00
Spain 9,58 -5,74 Finland -9,01 -9,54
Poland 14,26 -9,35 Ireland 4,32 -3,29
Romania -13,10 -13,89 Lithuania 11,57 0,30
Netherlands -5,98 -17,00 Latvia -22,05 13,07
Greece 5,66 -17,56 Slovenia -15,74 19,72
Portugal 8,69 -17,35 Estonia 2,21 39,22
Belgium 8,99 -17,12 Cyprus 40,26 81,38
Czechia 9,80 -17,23 Luxembourg 77,76 126,34
Hungary 10,15 -17,34 Malta 42,30 138,56
Sweden -1,54 -16,62
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
What is the right measure?
It depends!
To formulate a constitution: No preknowledge! Independenceis the ‘best guess’.
To describe a given system at a specific time: Do statisticalexperiment.
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
What is the right measure?
It depends!
To formulate a constitution: No preknowledge! Independenceis the ‘best guess’.
To describe a given system at a specific time: Do statisticalexperiment.
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
What is the right measure?
It depends!
To formulate a constitution: No preknowledge! Independenceis the ‘best guess’.
To describe a given system at a specific time: Do statisticalexperiment.
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
What is the right measure?
Outlook
New results for correlation across borders.
Use for opinion polls (in particular for election night forecasts).
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
What is the right measure?
Outlook
New results for correlation across borders.
Use for opinion polls (in particular for election night forecasts).
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Efficiency
Definition
Let (V ,W) be a voting system and P be a (voting) measure on−1, 1V . We may assume that V = 1, 2, . . . ,N and identify−1, 1V , −1, 1N and P(V ) .
The efficiency η of the voting system is defined as
η := P(W)
Example: Parliament
If the voting rule is simple majority and N is odd, then η = 12
independent of the choice of the measure P.
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Efficiency
Definition
Let (V ,W) be a voting system and P be a (voting) measure on−1, 1V . We may assume that V = 1, 2, . . . ,N and identify−1, 1V , −1, 1N and P(V ) .The efficiency η of the voting system is defined as
η := P(W)
Example: Parliament
If the voting rule is simple majority and N is odd, then η = 12
independent of the choice of the measure P.
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Efficiency
Definition
Let (V ,W) be a voting system and P be a (voting) measure on−1, 1V . We may assume that V = 1, 2, . . . ,N and identify−1, 1V , −1, 1N and P(V ) .The efficiency η of the voting system is defined as
η := P(W)
Example: Parliament
If the voting rule is simple majority and N is odd, then η = 12
independent of the choice of the measure P.
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
The meaning of efficiency
If the efficiency of a voting system is close to 12 it is relatively easy
to make decisions. In almost any case either the supporters of aproposal or the supporters of the counter-proposal can enforce adecision in their respective favor. If the efficiency is low astalemate will happen rather frequently.
On the other hand, sometimes a high efficiency is not alwaysdesired. For example, in most countries an amendment of theconstitution requires a large majority resulting in low efficiency.
For example in the European Union EU the member states tend tobe afraid of being overruled by the others. So, they prefer to keepthe efficiency low, thus strengthening their blocking power.
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
The meaning of efficiency
If the efficiency of a voting system is close to 12 it is relatively easy
to make decisions. In almost any case either the supporters of aproposal or the supporters of the counter-proposal can enforce adecision in their respective favor. If the efficiency is low astalemate will happen rather frequently.
On the other hand, sometimes a high efficiency is not alwaysdesired. For example, in most countries an amendment of theconstitution requires a large majority resulting in low efficiency.
For example in the European Union EU the member states tend tobe afraid of being overruled by the others. So, they prefer to keepthe efficiency low, thus strengthening their blocking power.
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Efficiency and Enlargement
We are interested in the dependence of η on the number N ofvoters.
This plays a crucial role in enlargement processes. For example theEU was extended various times, in particular in 2004 and 2007from 15 members to 27 members.The voting mechanism is (a combination of instances of) weightedvoting with a quota kept fixed at about 70 %.It look like the politicians believed the kept also the efficiency ofthe system fixed. Is this true?
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Efficiency for Independent Voters
Setting
Let wi be an infinite sequence of weights, q a quota and considerthe voting systems VN = 1, 2, . . . ,N with voting weightsw1,w2, . . . ,wN and quota q .
Let P denote the product measure on VN and set
aN :=
∑Ni=1 wi
2(∑Ni=1 wi
)2 → 0
Result
Under these conditions
ηN := P(WN) = O(e−C aN
)
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Efficiency for Independent Voters
Setting
Let wi be an infinite sequence of weights, q a quota and considerthe voting systems VN = 1, 2, . . . ,N with voting weightsw1,w2, . . . ,wN and quota q .
Let P denote the product measure on VN and set
aN :=
∑Ni=1 wi
2(∑Ni=1 wi
)2 → 0
Result
Under these conditions
ηN := P(WN) = O(e−C aN
)
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Efficiency for the Common Believe Model
Setting
Let wi be an infinite sequence of weights, q a quota and considerthe voting systems VN = 1, 2, . . . ,N with voting weightsw1,w2, . . . ,wN and quota q .
Let Pµ denote the CBM measure on VN and set
aN :=
∑Ni=1 wi
2(∑Ni=1 wi
)2 → 0
Result
Under these conditions
ηN := P(WN) = ' µ(]q, 1]
)+
1
2µ(q)
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Efficiency for the Common Believe Model
Setting
Let wi be an infinite sequence of weights, q a quota and considerthe voting systems VN = 1, 2, . . . ,N with voting weightsw1,w2, . . . ,wN and quota q .
Let Pµ denote the CBM measure on VN and set
aN :=
∑Ni=1 wi
2(∑Ni=1 wi
)2 → 0
Result
Under these conditions
ηN := P(WN) = ' µ(]q, 1]
)+
1
2µ(q)
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010
Efficiency for the EU-Council
The efficiency for the Nice-procedure is about 2%.
The efficiency for the Lisbon-procedure is about 15%
Mathematics, Power, and Democracy Bielefeld, November 2010