Name HereTITLE GOES HERE

Company Name

Matthew GardnerC H I E F E C O N O M I S T

Windermere Real Estate

A Regional EconomicOverview & ForecastPresented by: Matthew GardnerCHIEF ECONOMIST; WINDERMERE REAL ESTATE

Western U.S.Labor Market

EMPLOYMENT SHORTFALL & RELATIVE U. RATESSource:Windermere

Economics’ analysis of BLS data thru’ 04/21

8.3%8.0%

6.7%6.4%

6.1% 6.0%5.5% 5.4%

3.7%

3.1%2.8%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

CA NV AZ CO U.S. OR WA WY MT ID UT

Relative Unemployment RatesApril 2021; sa

168.9K

130.7K

1.41M

N/A(+11.5K)

134.2K128.6K

14.5K

73.4K94.8K

N/A(+18.5K)

8.5K

Jobs Needed to Return to Pre-Pandemic Levels

WESTERN U.S. METRO AREASSource:Windermere

Economics’ analysis of BLS data thru’ 04/21

-37.8

-68.6

-153.6

-179.6

-199.1

-254.2

-255.8

-280.9

-409.2

-772.5

39.4

66.0

67.3

88.4

131.4

131.2

134.6

153.4

162.4

275.1

1,000 800 600 400 200 0 200 400

Boise

Salt Lake City

San Jose

Portland

Denver

San Diego

Seattle/Tacoma

Las Vegas

San Francisco

Los Angeles

COVID-19 Impact on Employmentin thousands; sa

Lost Recovered

497.4

246.8

127.5 123 121.291.2 86.3

67.7

2.60

100

200

300

400

500

600

Los Angele

s

San Francisc

o

Las Vegas

San Diego

Seattle/T

acoma

Portland

San Jose

Denver

Salt Lak

e City

Boise

Jobs Needed to Return to Pre-Pandemic Levelsin thousands; sa

N/A

Washington StateLabor Market

RECOVERY IS SLOWING – FOR NOWSource:

Windermere Economics’ analysis of

WA ESD data thru’ 05/21

5,200

-23,100

-385,800

-11,500

83,90037,900 30,600 13,000 2,700 7,100

-11,100

5,100 29,600 27,000 13,200 8,300

-500,000-400,000-300,000-200,000-100,000

0100,000200,000

Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21

Change in Non-Ag EmploymentWA State monthly change; sa

2,800,000

3,000,000

3,200,000

3,400,000

3,600,000

Jan-12

Apr-12

Jul-1

2

Oct-12

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-1

3

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-1

4

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-1

5

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-1

6

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-1

7

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

Jul-1

8

Oct-18

Jan-19

Apr-19

Jul-1

9

Oct-19

Jan-20

Apr-20

Jul-2

0

Oct-20

Jan-21

Apr-21

WA State Non-Ag Employmentsa

STILL DOWN OVER 173K FROM PRE-PANDEMIC PEAKSource: Windermere

Economics’ analysis of WA ESD data

1/ Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities

7,800

1,300

8,900

6,900

-8,700

11,600

23,500

35,100

47,500

46,200

20,500

69,200

-3,000

-7,200

-10,300

-10,500

-26,000

-26,100

-34,500

-37,200

-44,700

-46,800

-56,200

-142,400

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000

Information

Financial Activities

Wholesale Trade

TWU 1/

Manufacturing

Other

Prof. & Business Svcs.

Construction

Retail Trade

Education & Health Svcs.

Gov't

Leisure & Hosp.

Job Losses/Recovery by Industry SectorWashington State; data through May 2021

Jobs Lost Jobs Recovered

WA UNEMPLOYMENT RATE DROPS BELOW 5% BY Q-4 Source:Washington State ESD

& BLS

3.5%

4.4%

14.8%

13.3%

11.1%

10.2%

8.4%7.8%

6.9% 6.7% 6.7%6.3% 6.2% 6.0% 6.1%

5.8%

4.1%

5.3%

16.3%

12.5%

10.8% 10.8%

9.1%

8.0%

7.0%6.7%

6.3%6.0%

5.6% 5.5% 5.4% 5.3%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21

U.S. WA State

Relative Unemployment Rate Trendsseasonally adjusted

FINDING EMPLOYEES IS A MAJOR CONCERNSource: Windermere Economics’ analysis of

WA ESD data thru’ 04/2021

-2,800

-8,200

-500 -500

-2,100

180,000

200,000

220,000

240,000

260,000

280,000

300,000

320,000

340,000

360,000

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

WA State L&H Employmentsa

-19,800

-30,700

-93,300

6,100

17,200

47,100

-13,700 -13,500

-46,200

-120,000

-100,000

-80,000

-60,000

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

Accommodation Arts, Entertainment &Rec

Food Svcs. & DrinkingPlaces

Impact of COVID-19 on L&H EmploymentWA State; sa

Lost Recovered Shortfall

EMPLOYMENT WILL RISE – BETTER IN 2022Source: Washington State ESD history &

Windermere Economics’ forecasts

-300,000

-250,000

-200,000

-150,000

-100,000

-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 (f) 2022 (f)

Washington State Employment Forecast

+78K

+125K

Washington Metro AreaLabor Markets

SOLID IMPROVEMENT; BUT STILL A WAY TO GOSource: Windermere Economics’ analysis of

WA ESD data

3,300

6,500

7,500

9,600

11,000

11,600

13,800

14,700

28,800

41,300

216,600

250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0

Longview

Wenatchee

Mt. Vernon

Yakima

Bremerton

Kennewick

Olympia

Bellingham

Spokane

Tacoma

Seattle

Washington MSA Employment ChangeFeb. - May 2020

2,700

3,300

3,400

4,900

6,100

6,300

7,900

8,100

18,600

25,500

102,800

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000

Longview

Bremerton

Mt. Vernon

Wenatchee

Yakima

Bellingham

Olympia

Kennewick

Spokane

Tacoma

Seattle

Washington MSA Employment ChangeMay 2020 - Apr. 2021

BETTER THAN IT WAS!Source:Washington State ESD

19.4%18.9%

18.1%

17.0%16.6% 16.5%

16.1%15.4%

14.8% 14.6%13.7%

12.7%

6.7%5.9%

6.5%

5.5% 5.4%

6.7%

5.3% 5.2% 5.1%

8.1%

5.9%5.0%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

Mt. Vernon Tacoma Bellingham Spokane Seattle Longview Olympia Wenatchee Bremerton Yakima Kennewick WallaWalla

Relative Unemployment Rates by MSAsa Apr-20 Apr-21

STILL DOWN OVER 127K FROM PRE-PANDEMIC PEAKSource: Windermere

Economics’ analysis of WA ESD data

Data thru’ 04/2021

800

500

2,300

1,900

2,100

1,300

2,300

3,300

6,800

8,800

27,900

-1,100

-1,700

-2,900

-3,100

-3,500

-4,300

-4,400

-4,900

-9,300

-13,700

-78,500

100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 20,000 40,000

Longview

Mt. Vernon

Wenatchee

Yakima

Bremerton

Olympia

Bellingham

Kennewick

Spokane

Tacoma

Seattle

COVID-19 L&H Jobs Lost & RecoveredWA metro areas; sa

Lost Recovered

50,600

4,9003,000 2,500 2,100 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,200 600 300

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Seattle

Tacom

a

Olympia

Spokan

e

Bellingh

am

Kennew

ick

Bremert

on

Mt. Vernon

Yakim

a

Wenatch

ee

Longv

iew

L&H Jobs Needed to Return to Pre-Pandemic LevelsWA metro areas; sa

Still Down by 69,400 Jobs

The Seattle & TacomaLabor Markets

DOWN 111K FROM PRE-PANDEMIC PEAKSource: Windermere

Economics’ analysis of WA ESD data thru’

04/20211/ Transportation,

Warehousing & Utilities

6,200

2,100

4,300

-11,700

-200

100

6,000

3,000

22,500

10,300

28,400

18,700

27,900

-1,000

-3,700

-6,600

-7,300

-7,400

-8,500

-14,100

-17,700

-19,600

-20,500

-21,300

-24,100

-78,500

100,000 75,000 50,000 25,000 0 25,000 50,000

Information

Financial Activities

Wholesale Trade

Aerospace

TWU 1/

Other Manufacturing

Other

Gov't

Construction

Prof. & Bus. Svcs

Retail Trade

Ed. & Health Svcs.

Leis. & Hosp.

Job Losses/Recovery by Industry SectorSeattle MSA

Jobs Lost Jobs Recovered

-10,600

-19,000

-50,300

1,900

9,900

17,400

-8,700 -9,100

-32,900

-60,000

-50,000

-40,000

-30,000

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

Accommodation Arts, Entertainment &Rec

Food Svcs. & DrinkingPlaces

Impact of COVID-19 on the Hospitality SectorSeattle MSA; data thru 05/2021; sa

Lost Recovered Shortfall

DOWN 15.8K FROM PRE-PANDEMIC PEAKSource: Windermere

Economics’ analysis of WA ESD data thru’

04/20211/ Transportation,

Warehousing & Utilities

0

1,900

300

900

400

1,500

400

3,300

5,600

4,800

1,300

8,800

-300

-600

-1,000

-1,200

-2,100

-3,700

-3,900

-4,100

-4,600

-5,000

-5,600

-13,700

20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 5,000 10,000

Information

TWU 1/

Financial Activities

Wholesale Trade

Manufacturing

Other

Prof. & Bus. Svcs

Construction

Retail Trade

Ed. & Health Svcs.

Gov't

Leis. & Hosp.

Job Losses/Recovery by Industry SectorTacoma MSA

Jobs Lost Jobs Recovered

-4,000

-9,800

1,200

7,600

-2,800-2,200

-12,000

-10,000

-8,000

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

Accommodation Food Svcs. & Drinking Places

Impact of COVID-19 on the Hospitality SectorTacoma MSA; data thru 04/2021; sa

Lost Recovered Shortfall

FULL JOB RECOVERY BY 2023Source: Washington State ESD history &

Windermere Economics’ forecasts

-200,000

-150,000

-100,000

-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 (f) 2022 (f)

Seattle MSA Employment ForecastDec – Dec Change in non-ag employment

+61K+74K

-25,000

-20,000

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 (f) 2022 (f)

Tacoma MSA Employment ForecastDec – Dec change in non-ag employment

+9.2K+7.2K

WE ARE TRAVELLING MORESource:Port of Seattle

-2,800

-8,200

-500 -500

-2,100

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000W

k. 1

Wk.

2W

k. 3

Wk.

4W

k. 5

Wk.

6W

k. 7

Wk.

8W

k. 9

Wk.

10

Wk.

11

Wk.

12

Wk.

13

Wk.

14

Wk.

15

Wk.

16

Wk.

17

Wk.

18

Wk.

19

Wk.

20

Wk.

21

Wk.

22

Wk.

23

Wk.

24

Wk.

25

Wk.

26

Wk.

27

Wk.

28

Wk.

29

Wk.

30

Wk.

31

Wk.

32

Wk.

33

Wk.

34

Wk.

35

Wk.

36

Wk.

37

Wk.

38

Wk.

39

Wk.

40

Wk.

41

Wk.

42

Wk.

43

Wk.

44

Wk.

45

Wk.

46

Wk.

47

Wk.

48

Wk.

49

Wk.

50

Wk.

51

Wk.

52

Passengers Passing Through SeaTac TSA Checkpoints 2019

2020

2021

BUT EATING OUT HAS YET TO RECOVERSource:Open Table

2019 is the baseline

-2,800

-8,200

-500 -500

-2,100

-120%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%2/

283/

204/

10 5/1

5/22

6/12 7/

37/

248/

14 9/4

9/25

10/1

611

/611

/27

12/1

81/

81/

292/

193/

12 4/2

4/23

5/14 6/

4

chan

ge fr

om s

ame

day

in 2

019

WA Restaurant Bookings7-day moving average

-120%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

2/28

3/20

4/10 5/

15/

226/

12 7/3

7/24

8/14 9/

49/

2510

/16

11/6

11/2

712

/18

1/8

1/29

2/19

3/12 4/

24/

235/

14 6/4

chan

ge fr

om s

ame

day

in 2

019

Seattle Restaurant Bookings7-day moving average

WA STATE FORECAST

-2,800

-8,200

-500 -500

-2,100• The Job Recovery Continues; But Aerospace & L&H Still

Lagging;• Domestic Leisure Travel Has Improved at Rates Nobody

Expected – But Business Travel Yet to Bounce Back;• State Returns to Pre-Pandemic Employment Levels in

Early 2023;• Labor Shortages in Some Service Industries Persists –

Wages Have to Rise to Bring Workers Back!• And Finally…. I Really Need a “Post-Quarantini”…. Care

to Join Me? You All Deserve One!

Thank You