Matulla, Christoph* Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics, Austria

Namyslo, Joachim** German National Meteorological Service, Germany

Andre, Konrad Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics, Austria

Chimani, Barbara Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics, Austria

* christoph.matulla@zamg.ac.at ** joachim.namyslo@dwd.de

STS 49 TRA2014 Paris 14‒17 avril 2014

DESIGN GUIDELINE FOR A CLIMATE PROJECTION DATA BASE AND SPECIFIC CLIMATE INDICES

FOR ROADS: CLIPDAR

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Structure of the presentation

Introduction Data and Methods Results Outlook

STS 49 2TRA2014 Paris 14‒17 avril 2014Matulla et al.

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Data and Methods

Regional scale past & climate change projections

17 members (A1B)• temperature, precipitation

Continental scale past & climate change projections

8 members A1B, A2 • temperature 850hPa

Cause Effect Tensor: CET2 & Climate Indices: CIsSTS 49 3TRA2014 Paris 14‒17 avril 2014Matulla et al.

CET2:CIs→Assets

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Possible future of cold winters in Fennoscandia

• Select coldest past seasons• Apply an EOF analysis to continental past data• Calculate the first future time coefficient • Compare the near and far future

time coefficient to the past

STS 49 4TRA2014 Paris 14‒17 avril 2014Matulla et al.

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• Select hottest past seasons• Apply an EOF analysis to continental past data• Calculate the first future time coefficient • Compare the near and far future

time coefficient to the past

Possible future of hot summers in the Iberian Peninsula

STS 49 5TRA2014 Paris 14‒17 avril 2014Matulla et al.

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Cold index days in Central Europe

Climate indices (CIs)• CI (frost days): Tmin<0°C • CI (ice days): Tmax<0°C • Compare the far future (2071‒2100) to past (1961‒1990)

conditions

STS 49 6TRA2014 Paris 14‒17 avril 2014Matulla et al.

daysTmax < 0°C

daysTmin < 0°C

Frostdays

Icedays

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Climate indices (CIs)• CI (summer days): Tmax≥25°C • CI (hot days): Tmax ≥ 30°C• Compare the

far future (2071‒2100) to past (1961‒1990) conditions

Warm index days in Central Europe

STS 49 7TRA2014 Paris 14‒17 avril 2014Matulla et al.

daysTmax ≥ 30°C

Summerdays

HotdaysdaysTmax ≥ 25°C

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Climate indices (CIs)• CI (hot days and tropical

nights): Tmax≥30°C and Tnight,min>20°C

• Compare the near (2021‒2050) and far (2071‒2100) future to the past (1961‒1990) conditions

Potential rutting days in Central Europe

STS 49 8TRA2014 Paris 14‒17 avril 2014Matulla et al.

Near future (2021‒2050)

Far future (2071‒2100)

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Climate indices (CIs)• CI (mass movement day):

Pday>25.6 mm and P3day>37.3 mm

• Compare the near (2021‒2050) and far (2071‒2100) future to the past (1961‒1990) conditions

Potential “landslides” in Central Europe

STS 49 9TRA2014 Paris 14‒17 avril 2014Matulla et al.

Near future (2021‒2050)

Far future (2071‒2100)

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Design Guideline - principles

STS 49 10TRA2014 Paris 14‒17 avril 2014Matulla et al.

Internal climate variability: Averaging of climate projection data (periods of 30 y, at least 10 y)

Ensemble building: consider model diversity,many members (enable 15th/85th Percentiles)

Downscaling (proposal) = = statistical regionalization + bias correction

Ensemble Approach (make ensemble statistics)

Use preferably simple impact models (otherwise: only a case study may be possible)

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Outlook

Enlarge the region stepwise by consistently including further European countries

Use new scenarios (RCPs of EURO-CORDEX) Avoid the mixing of datasets Ensure highest quality of data – no breaks

along borders Include air traffic and railway transport Expand the analysis to further CIs

(e.g. damage of bridges, water to street level)STS 49 11TRA2014 Paris 14‒17 avril 2014Matulla et al.

STS 49 TRA2014 Paris 14‒17 avril 2014

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!‒ The CliPDaR team ‒

Acknowledgements:• BMVBS/German Joint Research Programme KLIWAS: Impacts of climate change on Waterways and navigation - Searching for options of adaptation

• Autobahnen- und Schnellstrassen-Finanzierungs- AG

• Federal Ministry of Transport, Innovation and Technology of the Republic of Austria

• German Federal Highway Research Institute