may 18, 2019 pimlico race course - xpressbet.com · fellow racing fan, congratulations to the...

May 18, 2019Pimlico Race Course

866.88XPRESS (866.889.7737)

Fellow Racing Fan,

Congratulations to the connections of 2019 Kentucky Derby winner Country House! That certainly was one

wild-and-woolly Kentucky Derby, culminating with the first on-track win disqualification in the race’s storied

145-year history.

Because of the Kentucky Derby’s wide-open nature, Preakness figures to be a similarly challenging

handicapping puzzle. None of the top 3 official Derby finishers will contest the Preakness, so that leaves

Improbable and War of Will as post-Louisville headliners.

Set to join Derby runners in Baltimore are capable new faces that have been pointed toward Old Hilltop:

Alwaysmining, Anothertwistafate, Sueno, Owendale, Bourbon War and more.

Have no fear. Xpressbet’s FREE Preakness Wager Guide will navigate you through these uncharted waters.

We’ve recruited top handicappers, writers and broadcasters to examine the race—Analysis, Main Contenders,

Value Plays and $100 Wagering Strategies.

In addition to race-by-race expert commentary, inside you’ll also find oodles of useful Stats & Trends, a handy

Exotic Wagering Chart and much more.

This season, following the Preakness post-position draw, Xpressbet again will produce an updated version of

this guide to reflect adjustments in expert opinions based on up-to-the-minute information. Make certain to

return to the Xpressbet website Friday, May 18 for a FREE revised and enhanced version of the guide, including

Eddie Olczyk’s valuable opinions.

When you are ready to wager, anytime from anywhere, Xpressbet can help. We’re the best online, telephone

and mobile horserace wagering service in the nation!

As a current account holder, you know Xpressbet is the best place to watch and wager on worldwide racing. If

you don’t already wager with Xpressbet, act now and earn up to $500 in bonus cash! That will come in handy

Preakness Day. Complete details are available at Xpressbet.com.

Xpressbet hopes your 2019 Preakness wagering experience is fruitful and we look forward to serving as your

advance deposit account wagering provider for the big day and into the future.

Sincerely,

The Xpressbet Team

Welcome to Xpressbet’s FREE Preakness Wager Guide!

Signalman (30/1)Owner: Magdalena Racing, Tommie M. Lewis, David Bernsen, et alTrainer: Ken McPeekJockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.

Bodexpress (20/1)Owner: Top Racing LLC, Global Thoroughbred & GDS Racing StableTrainer: Gustavo DelgadoJockey: John Velazquez

Everfast (50/1)Owner: Calumet FarmTrainer: Dale RomansJockey: Joel Rosario

Laughing Fox (20/1)Owner: Alex & JoAnn LieblongTrainer: Steve AsmussenJockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.

Anothertwistafate (6/1)Owner: Peter Redekop B.C. Ltd.Trainer: Blaine WrightJockey: Jose Ortiz

Market King (30/1)Owner: Robert C. Baker &

William L. Mack

Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas

Jockey: Jon Court

Alwaysmining (8/1)Owner: Runnymede Racing LLC Trainer: Kelly RubleyJockey: Daniel Centeno

6

7

8

9

10

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1 War of Will (4/1)Owner: Gary BarberTrainer: Mark CasseJockey: Tyler Gaffalione

2 Bourbon War (12/1)Owner: Bourbon Lane Stable & Lake Star StableTrainer: Mark HennigJockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

3 Warrior’s Charge (12/1)Owner: Ten Strike Racing & Madaket Stables LLCTrainer: Brad CoxJockey: Javier Castellano

4Improbable (5/2)Owner: WinStar Farm LLC, China Horse Club International Ltd. & Starlight RacingTrainer: Bob BaffertJockey: Mike Smith

5 Owendale (10/1)Owner: Rupp RacingTrainer: Brad CoxJockey: Florent Geroux

Win Win Win (15/1)Owner: Live Oak PlantationTrainer: Michael Trombetta Jockey: Julian Pimentel

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Preakness Wagering FactsBy Jeremy Plonk, Xpressbet@HorsePlayerNow

Expert

First

Second

Third

Fourth

Bob Neumeier(HPNow)

Improbable

War of Will

Bodexpress

Alwaysmining

Millie Ball(XBTV.com)

Improbable

Alwaysmining

War of Will

Owendale

Jeff Siegel(XBTV.com)

Improbable

Owendale

Alwaysmining

War of Will

Jon White(Santa Anita)

War of Will

Improbable

Alwaysmining

Owendale

Dick Jerardi(DRF)

War of Will

Improbable

Alwaysmining

Owendale

Steve Byk(SiriusXM Radio)

Alwaysmining

Improbable

War of Will

Owendale

Below are some informative wagering tidbits from past Preakness Stakes events.

Win-Place-Show Odds (Last 15 years, Odds to $1)Win OddsAverage: 4.91High: 15.40 (Oxbow, 2013)Low: .20 (Big Brown, 2008)Notable: Winner has been 3-1 or less 12 of the last 16 years.

Place OddsAverage: 12.42High: 39.90 (Macho Again, 2008)Low: 1.30 (Street Sense, 2007)Notable: 7 of the last 15 runner-ups have been 10-1 or more, including 4 of last 5.

Show OddsAverage: 13.78High: 31.70 (Senior Investment, 2017)Low: .70 (Nyquist, 2016)Notable: 9 of the last 13 Show horses have been 10-1or more.

Exacta Payoffs(Last 15 years, $2 Payoffs)Average: $95.20High: $301.40(Oxbow-Itsmyluckyday, 2013)Low: $18.20(California Chrome-Ride On Curlin, 2014)Notable: 11 of last 12 Exactas have included at least 1 horse at 5-2 odds or less.

Trifecta Payoffs(Last 15 years, $1 Payoffs)Average: $662.27High: $3,912.80(Bernardini-Sweetnorthernsaint-Hemingway’s Key, 2006)Low: $35.40(I’ll Have Another-Bodemeister-Creative Cause, 2012)Notable: 4 of last 7 Trifectas have paid $148 or less.

Superfecta Payoffs(Last 15 years, $1 Payoffs)Average: $3,972.53 Notable: Average odds of fourth-place finishers is 12.9-to-1.High: $11,151.20 (Bernardini-Sweetnorthernsaint-Hemingway’s Key-Brother Derek, 2006)Low: $173.80 (California Chrome-Ride On Curlin-Social Inclusion-General A Rod, 2014)Notable: Just 4 times in the bet’s 20-year history the Superfecta has been a 5-digit payoff.

Highest-Priced Superfecta Finishers (Last 15 Years, Odds to $1)Odds Horse Year Fin.39.90 Macho Again 2008 2nd31.70 Senior Investment 2017 3rd29.40 Hemingway’s Key 2006 3rd28.50 Tale of Verve 2015 2nd26.10 Tenfold 2018 3rd25.40 Flying Private 2009 4th25.10 Racecar Rhapsody 2008 4th

Lowest-Priced Favorites(Last 15 Years, Odds to $1) Odds Horse Year Fin. .20 Big Brown 2008 1st .40 Justify 2018 1st .50 California Chrome 2014 1st .50 Barbaro 2006 dnf .70 Nyquist 2016 3rd .70 Smarty Jones 2004 1st .70 Orb 2013 4th .90 American Pharoah 2015 1st 1.20 Always Dreaming 2017 8th 1.30 Street Sense 2007 2nd 1.80 Rachel Alexandra 2009 1st 1.90 Super Saver 2010 8th

Preakness ContendersBy Johnny D, Xpressbet@XBJohnnyD

Improbable: What’s a Preakness without trainer Bob Baffert? Like a day without sunshine. This

Baffert-trained Kentucky Derby favorite arrives in Baltimore off a troubled original 5th-placing.

It’s reasonable to expect a better performance at Pimlico. The shorter distance favors him and

experience gained in Louisville can only help this Grade 1 winner regain top form that has produced

5 in-the-money finishes in 6 races. Expect to find him mid-pack early.

War of Will: Dominant at Fair Grounds this winter, this son of War Front ran creditably in the Derby

after starting from the dreaded number 1 post. He was in the thick of the Louisville doings until just

off the final turn when part of the Maximum Security disqualification incident. He then faded to 8th.

In the Kentucky Derby, he was coming off a troubled Louisiana Derby trip and hadn’t had a serious

race since Feb. 16. This pace-stalker should be much more fit in Baltimore.

Alwaysmining: This son of Stay Thirsty is a local sophomore tiger. He’s won six-in-a-row, all at

Laurel, including four stakes. While he hasn’t faced graded-stakes competition yet, winning margins

that range from 1 1/2 to 11 1/2 lengths suggest he can make the leap. He races mainly on the front

end, but can sit just off the pace like he did last out in the Federico Tesio. There doesn’t seem to be

an abundance of early speed in Preakness and the race is in Maryland, so…

Owendale: After spending the winter in New Orleans, this son of Into Mischief rebounded strongly

last time out from a 12th-place finish in the Louisiana Derby to upset the Lexington Stakes at

Keeneland. He rallied from well off the pace that day at healthy 12-1 odds. He’s experienced with

8 lifetime starts and is trained by the young and talented Brad Cox. He will be a decent price in the

Preakness and has to close from far back.

Anothertwistafate: Winner of 3 of 6 races, including the El Camino Real Derby, this son of Scat

Daddy has been second in his last 2 starts and a bit under the sophomore radar until now. He

was runner-up to Cutting Humor in the Sunland Park Derby and to Owendale in the Lexington at

Keeneland. All 3 wins came at Golden Gate over a synthetic surface. He races either on or just off

the pace and should find a suitable spot early in the Preakness.

Bourbon War: A winner of 2 of 5 starts, this son of Tapit boasts a runner-up finish to original

Kentucky Derby show horse Code of Honor in the Xpressbet Fountain of Youth. He also was fourth

in the Xpressbet Florida Derby behind original Kentucky Derby winner Maximum Security. He races

from well off the pace and requests an early pace meltdown for his best. Trainer Mark Hennig has

saddled two previous Preakness starters: Eddington (2004, 3rd) and Personal Hope (1993, 4th).

Post Time: 4:14 PM ET

4YO+, Fillies & Mares

1 1/2 Miles Turf

When You Win, You LoseBy Bob Neumeier, HorsePlayerNow.com

Bob’s Picks

Analysis: A wise man once proclaimed, “There is only one way to win a race and

20,000 ways to lose.” Unfortunately for the connections and betting public at the

Kentucky Derby, Maximum Security landed on one of the 20,000 ways. Yes, he proved to

be the best horse. Yes, he should have been disqualified. In fact, according to Equibase,

the internal fractions show what a remarkable effort ‘Max put forth. Sloppy track or not,

here are the ¼ mile splits in order: 22.31, 24.31, 25.88, 26.13, and 25.30. Translation: The

first quarter was insanely fast; and notably the last quarter ran faster than the third or

fourth, which occurs on turf, but rarely on dirt. As much as we love handicapping and

betting the races, we need to recognize how difficult this process can be. Between fast,

muddy and sloppy/sealed tracks and the infinite number of ways to lose, it is likely best

to echo the sentiments of the television character Walter White in “Breaking Bad,” who

uttered, “Maybe the best course would be to tread lightly.”

Main Contenders: Handicappers love trouble lines and wager accordingly. The

stout running lines of WAR OF WILL, combined with jostling in the Kentucky Derby,

guarantees him a top slot in the Preakness Stakes. IMPROBABLE has been bet heavily in

all six of his runs. You could not locate OWENDALE with a telescope in the Risen Star,

but he bounced back to win for fun in the Lexington.

Value Plays: The Xpressbet Florida Derby (whose alumni in the Preakness include

BODEXPRESS and BOURBON WAR) and the Arkansas Derby (LAUGHING FOX) appear

to be “key” races after what we saw in Kentucky. The local ALWAYSMINING is on a roll

and a consideration in the exotics.

$100 Wagering Strategy:

• $10 Exacta Box: WAR OF WILL and IMPROBABLE ($20)

• $2 Trifecta Part-Wheel: WAR OF WILL and IMPROBABLE with BODEXPRESS and

ALWAYSMINING with WAR OF WILL, IMPROBABLE, BOURBON WAR,

LAUGHING FOX, OWENDALE, BODEXPRESS and ALWAYSMINING ($40)

• $2 Trifecta Part-Wheel: WAR OF WILL and IMPROBABLE with WAR OF WILL,

IMPROBABLE, BOURBON WAR, LAUGHING FOX, OWENDALE, BODEXPRESS and

ALWAYSMINING with BODEXPRESS and ALWAYSMINING ($40)

Stats & TrendsLexington Winners in Preakness(Since 1988) Year Horse Fin.2017 Senior Investment 3rd2016 Collected 10th2015 Divining Rod 3rd2003 Scrimshaw 3rd2002 Proud Citizen 3rd1999 Charismatic 1st1998 Classic Cat 3rd1997 Touch Gold 4th1995 Star Standard 4th 1992 My Luck Runs North 12th 1991 Hansel 1st1988 Risen Star 1stNote: Overall 12: 3-0-5-2

Preakness Winner Without Derby Winner (Since 1982) Year Winner Odds Prep Fin1996 Louis Quatorze 8-1 Ky Derby 16th1985 Tank’s Prospect 9-2 Ky Derby 7th1982 Aloma’s Ruler 6-1 Withers 1st

Beaten Derby Favorites in Preakness(Last 20 Years) Year Horse Derby Odds Preak Odds2012 Bodemeister 2nd (4-1) 2nd (8-5*)2011 Dialed In 8th (5-1) 4th (4-1)2010 Lookin At Lucky 6th (6-1) 1st (2-1)2009 Friesan Fire 18th (7-2) 10th (9-1)2006 Sweetnorthernsaint 7th (5-1) 2nd (6-1)2002 Harlan’s Holiday 7th (6-1) 4th (5-1)2001 Point Given 5th (9-5) 1st (2-1*)1999 Excellent Meeting 5th (9-2) DNF (6-1)*FavoriteNote: Bob Baffert-trained horses 4: 2-1-0.

Know ThisRally Cry: In 5 of the last 6 Preakness Stakes a horse has rallied from last to finish second or third.

?

1. IMPROBABLE

2. WAR OF WILL

3. BODEXPRESS

4. ALWAYSMINING

Exotic Wagering Chart

Preakness exotic wagers usually produce hefty payoffs. Use this handy Exotic Wagering Chart to help plan your attack.

Exacta Box: ($1 Wager) 2 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $2 3 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $6 4 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$12 5 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $20 6 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $30 7 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $42 8 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $56

Exacta Wheel: ($1 Wager)One Horse with All 6 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $5 7 horse field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $6 8 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $7 9 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $8 10 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $9

Trifecta Box: ($.50 Wager) 3 Horse Box. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $3 4 Horse Box. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $12 5 Horse Box. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $30 6 Horse Box. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $60 7 Horse Box. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $105 8 Horse Box. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $168

Trifecta Wheel: ($.50 Wager)One Horse with All with All (Example: 1/All/All or All/1/All or All/All/1) 7 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$15 8 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$21 9 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $28 10 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $36

One Horse with Two Horses with All (Example: 1/2,3/All or 2,3/1/All or 1/

All/2,3 or 2,3/All/1 or All/1/2,3 or All/2,3/1)

7 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $5 8 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $6 9 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$7 10 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $8

Trifecta Key: ($.50 Wager) 1 Horse with 3 others. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $3 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4/ 2, 3, 4) 1 Horse with 4 others. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $6 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5/ 2, 3, 4, 5) 1 Horse with 5 others. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $10 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) 1 Horse with 6 others. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $15 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) 1 Horse with 7 others. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $21 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8)

Superfecta Box: ($1 Wager) 4 Horse Box. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$24 5 Horse Box. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$120 6 Horse Box. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $360

Superfecta Wheel: ($1 Wager)One Horse with All with All with All (Example: 1/All/All/All or All/1/All/All or All/All/1/All or All/ All/ All/1) 7 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $120 8 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$210 9 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$336 10 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $504

One Horse with Two Horses with All with All (Example: 1/2,3/All/All or 2,3/1/All/All or 1/All/All/ 2,3 or 2,3/All/All/1 or All/All/1/ 2,3 or All/All/2,3/ 1) 7 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $40 8 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $60 9 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$84 10 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $112

Superfecta Key: ($1 Wager) 1 Horse with 3 others. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $6 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4/2, 3, 4/2, 3, 4) 1 Horse with 4 others. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $24 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5/2, 3, 4, 5/2, 3, 4, 5) 1 Horse with 5 others. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $60 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6/2, 3, 4, 5, 6/2, 3, 4, 5, 6) 1 Horse with 6 others. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$120 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) 1 Horse with 7 others. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$210 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8)

Improbable is Right HorseBy Millie Ball, XBTV.com@camillayakteen



1 1/2 Miles Turf

Millie’s Picks

Stats & TrendsFastest Preakness Stakes Year Horse Time1973 Secretariat 1:531985 Tank’s Prospect 1:53 2/51996 Louis Quatorze 1:53 2/52007 Curlin 1:53 2/51984 Gate Dancer 1:53 3/51990 Summer Squall 1:53 3/51989 Sunday Silence 1:53 4/51991 Hansel 1:541971 Cannonero II 1:54

Fastest FractionsDist. Time Horse 1/4 :22 2/5 (Tied 4 times) 1/2 :45 Bold Forbes (1976) 3/4 1:09 Bold Forbes (1976) Mile 1:34 1/5 Sunday Silence (1989) Chief’s Crown (1985) Secretariat (1973) Final 1:53 Secretariat (1973)

Half-Mile Leaders(Last 10 Years) Year Horse Finish2018 Justify 1st2017 Always Dreaming 8th2016 Nyquist 3rd2015 American Pharoah 1st2014 Pablo Del Monte 6th2013 Oxbow 1st 2012 Bodemeister 2nd2011 Flashpoint 14th 2010 First Dude 2nd 2009 Rachel Alexandra 1st

Know ThisSeventh Heaven: Bob Baffert notched his seventh Preakness victory with Justify last year. Each of his Preakness successes have come with Kentucky Derby alumni, and notably he’s 5-for-5 in the Preakness with Derby winners.

?

1. IMPROBABLE

2. ALWAYSMINING

3. WAR OF WILL

4. OWENDALE

Analysis: Running a horse back in two weeks is not generally trainer Bob Baffert’s MO,

but he’s been successful at it. In fact, he has raced only 29 horses off layoffs of exactly 14

days since 2013. And of these 29, 35% have won; and of those wheeling back in stakes

races, in particular, 85% have run in the money. It comes as little surprise, therefore, that

all 7 of Baffert’s Preakness victories have come with horses who competed in the first

leg of the Triple Crown two weeks prior. IMPROBABLE ran a better race in the Kentucky

Derby than it appears he did on paper. He deserves credit for hanging in there for a

fourth-placing. The Preakness field will be smaller, and post position-permitting with his

newest pilot Mike Smith, you can be assured he will be sitting closer to the pace with the

potential for a cleaner trip.

Main Contenders: ALWAYSMINING keeps running faster – and winning by greater

margins – as race distances have increased. He has proven he is equally as effective

when rating as he is on the lead; now he just needs to confirm he can transfer his Laurel

form to Pimlico. IMPROBABLE’S immaturity has compromised him in larger fields this

year, although his more professional behavior at the gate prior to the Kentucky Derby

indicates he is beginning to grow up. The City Zip colt is the only Grade 1 winner in

the potential Preakness field. WAR OF WILL is likely to be over-bet because of his

inclusion in the trouble lines of the Kentucky Derby. He is his own worst enemy due to

his aggressiveness, but if he breaks cleanly and is presented with a more fluent race, he

could be in the mix with less distance and depth to deal with in the second leg of the

classics. WAR OF WILL will be a terrific turf horse.

Value Plays: Since ALWAYSMINING is trained by the less-familiar Kelly Rubley, who

has done a tremendous job keeping her 3-year-old gelding in razor-sharp form, he

might not earn the respect at the windows he deserves. He ran the last furlong of the

Federico Tesio Stakes in 12.47. Plus he has the advantage of four weeks rest. OWENDALE

ran a career-best Beyer in the Lexington Stakes coming from well off the pace.


• $20 Win: ALWAYSMINING ($20)

• $20 Win: IMPROBABLE ($20)

• $1 Trifecta Box: IMPROBABLE, WAR OF WILL, OWENDALE, ALWAYSMINING,

ANOTHERTWISTAFATE ($60)

It’s a Little Thin at the TopBy Jeff Siegel, XBTV.com@jsiegelracing



1 1/2 Miles Turf

Jeff’s Picks

Analysis: Not since Grindstone in 1996 has the Kentucky Derby winner been withheld

from the Preakness. Not since 1951 have the Derby’s first 4 under the line sat out the

Triple Crown’s second jewel. A thinned-out Preakness field is good news to the beaten

Derby favorite IMPROBABLE, who crossed the wire fifth before being moved up a

notch following the disqualification of first-across-the-wire Maximum Security. And,

with the kissed-in Derby winner Country House sitting this dance out with a cough,

IMPROBABLE once again becomes the probable betting choice for the powerful jockey/

trainer team of Bob Baffert and Mike Smith. Meanwhile, the long-range weather forecast

is for sunny skies and a high of 73. We’ll take it.

Main Contenders: IMPROBABLE was pocketed during the first mile of the Derby and

when finally extracting himself from the pack in the upper stretch, he couldn’t quite

quicken as expected over a wet surface that his jockey Irad Ortiz says he didn’t care for.

Yet, the City Zip colt was beaten only 3 ¼ lengths. Perhaps most importantly, he’s the

only Grade 1 winner in the prospective field. Among the new shooters, OWENDALE

appears the most dangerous. He was a devastating winner with a powerful late kick

in the Lexington Stakes in a career-top effort that, if repeated at Pimlico, will give

IMPROBABLE plenty to worry about.

Value Plays: ALWAYSMINING brings a 6-race winning streak to the Preakness, and

although his Beyer figures are a tad shy of what might be needed to win, the Stay Thirsty

gelding could easily inherit the role as the controlling speed. If not policed up front,

he could take this field a very long way. WAR OF WILL should draft into a comfortable,

pace-stalking position and then have every chance, assuming he doesn’t encounter the

kind of rough trip that made him famous on social media two weeks ago.


• $20 Exacta Box: IMPROBABLE and OWENDALE ($40)

• $5 Exacta Box: IMPROBABLE, OWENDALE and ALWAYSMINING ($30)

• $5 Exacta Box: IMPROBABLE, OWENDALE and WAR OF WILL ($30)

Stats & TrendsWire-to-Wire Winners(Last 50 Years) Year Horse2018 Justify*2015 American Pharoah*2013 Oxbow *2009 Rachel Alexandra *1996 Louis Quartorze *1982 Aloma’s Ruler1972 Bee Bee Bee*Did not lead at start call.

Last-to-First Winners(Since 1910) Year Horse Strs. Behind ½ Mile1974 Little Current 13 10 1/2 lengths1961 Carry Back 9 14 1/2 lengths1952 Blue Man 10 13 1/2 lengths1941 Whirlaway 9 9 lengths

Successful Locals(Last 20 Years) Year Horse Fin.2008 Icabad Crane 3rd2006 Sweetnorthernsaint 2nd2005 Scrappy T 2nd2002 Magic Weisner 2nd

Know ThisLongshots Long Gone: Only 2 horses since 1911 have won the Preakness at odds of 20-1 or more.

Waiting Their Turn: Tale of Verve (2015) and Cherry Wine (2016) both finished second in the Preakness after being excluded from the Kentucky Derby—entered but excluded due to insufficient points. They are the two most-recent Derby exclusions to attempt the Preakness.

Keeneland Keepers: Since 2015, 7 Preakness runners have exited most-recent starts at Keeneland. 5 of them have been in the superfecta – at average odds of more than 14-1.

?

1. IMPROBABLE

2. OWENDALE

3. ALWAYSMINING

4. WAR OF WILL

It’s Time to Go to ’WarBy Jon White, Santa Anita Oddsmaker@PostTimeJon



1 1/2 Miles Turf

Jon’s Picks

Analysis: It’s fair to say the 2019 Kentucky Derby is the most controversial Triple Crown

race since the 1980 Preakness, when there was a claim of foul (but no stewards’ inquiry

and no DQ) after Codex and the filly Genuine Risk raced together very wide into the lane

when battling for command. Based on recent history, the 2019 Preakness winner most

likely will be someone who competed in the Derby. That’s because just 4 of the last 35

Preakness winners (Red Bullet in 2000, Bernardini in 2006, Rachel Alexandra in 2009 and

Cloud Computing in 2017) did not run in the Derby.

Main Contenders: Kentucky Derby alums IMPROBABLE and WAR OF WILL figure

to have a big say in the outcome of the Preakness. It is probable that IMPROBABLE,

who spent much of the Derby boxed in as the 4-1 favorite, will appreciate the shorter

Preakness trip. WAR OF WILL similarly was boxed in during the early stages of the Derby

before being impeded on the far turn. After having six weeks between his misfire in the

Louisiana Derby and the Kentucky Derby, WAR OF WILL now could be ready to run a

biggie in Baltimore. ALWAYSMINING, who has reeled off 6 straight wins, crushed his

Federico Tesio foes when he prevailed by 11 ½ lengths. OWENDALE looked terrific

winning the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland.

Value Plays: ANOTHERTWISTAFATE has finished first or second in all 5 of his starts

around 2 turns. BOURBON WAR finished fourth in the Xpressbet Florida Derby when

a slow pace compromised his chances. WIN WIN WIN didn’t care for the wet track in

Louisville and is going to live up to his name someday in an important race.


• $40 Win: WAR OF WILL ($40)

• $4 Exacta Box: WAR OF WILL, IMPROBABLE, ALWAYSMINING and OWENDALE ($48)

• $1 Exacta Box: WAR OF WILL, ANOTHERTWISTAFATE, BOURBON WAR and

WIN WIN WIN ($12)

Stats & TrendsWinners Who Skipped Derby(Since 1970) Year Horse2017 Cloud Computing2009 Rachel Alexandra2006 Bernardini2000 Red Bullet1983 Deputed Testamony1982 Aloma’s Ruler1980 Codex1972 Bee Bee Bee

Where Winners Were BredWins State 99 Kentucky 8 Maryland 7 Florida 6 Pennsylvania 6 Virginia

Know ThisLight and Lively Resumes: The 2 most-recent Preakness winners, Justify (2018) and Cloud Computing (2017), had only 4 and 3 prior career starts, respectively.

Slow Go for Tesio: The winner of Maryland’s Preakness prep, the Federico Tesio Stakes, hasn’t added the middle jewel of the Triple Crown since Deputed Testamony (1983). The best since was Oliver’s Twist, second to Timber Country (1995).

Ladies First: Trainer Kelly Rubley (Alwaysmining) could become the first female trainer to win the Preakness Stakes. Locally based Nancy Alberts was runner-up with Magic Weisner (2002).

Fenced In: Only 2 Preakness winners in more than a half-century have started from post 1: American Pharoah (2015) and Tabasco Cat (1994).

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1. WAR OF WILL

2. IMPROBABLE

3. ALWAYSMINING

4. OWENDALE



1 1/2 Miles Turf

Dick’s Picks

Analysis: With the horse who ‘won’ the Kentucky Derby and the horse who finished

first in the Derby not running, the Preakness has broken wide open. The early pace

battle appears as if it will be among ALWAYSMINING, ANOTHERTWISTAFATE and

BODEXPRESS. WAR OF WILL did not look at all comfortable on the rail sitting behind

Maximum Security on the long run down the Churchill Downs backstretch. He made

a long, sustained run immediately after the incident on the far turn. You’ve got to think

if he gets a clean, outside trip where he could relax, his move could be even more

powerful and impactful. IMPROBABLE also had to sit in a pocket most of the way in the

Derby. He also will run much better with less traffic around him.

Main Contenders: IMPROBABLE has an incredible Beyer series of 96, 99, 95, 96 and

93. He’s likely to be favored with the deadly Bob Baffert-Mike Smith combo. WAR OF

WILL’S ‘trouble’ was over almost as fast as it began. He ran with Maximum Security for a

few hundred yards. He could not keep up in the final 100 yards against a horse that has

never finished behind another horse. ALWAYSMINING, the best Maryland-based horse in

the race in years, has won his last six starts by a combined 36 lengths. He proved he did

not need the lead when he rated off the pace and blew the field away in the Federico

Tesio Stakes. His speed figures are not far off what it is going to take to win. OWENDALE

ran a giant race in his impressive Lexington win when he got a lifetime-best speed figure.

ANOTHERTWISTAFATE has given a big effort in each of his last five starts. If BOURBON

WAR can come back to his second in the Xpressbet Fountain of Youth, he has a chance.

Value Plays: If ALWAYSMINING can get a clear lead and spread the field out on the

backstretch, he has a reasonable chance at an upset.


• $100 Exacta: WAR OF WILL over IMPROBABLE ($100)

Stats & TrendsSoph Champions(The Preakness winner has been named Champion 3-year-old in 14 of the last 18 years.) Year Horse2018 Justify2015 American Pharoah2014 California Chrome2012 I’ll Have Another2010 Lookin At Lucky2009 Rachel Alexandra (filly)2008 Big Brown2007 Curlin2006 Bernardini2005 Afleet Alex2004 Smarty Jones2003 Funny Cide2002 War Emblem2001 Point Given

2018 Preakness Handle(Millions, Except for Double) Pool HandleWin, Place, Show $ 20.6Trifecta $ 14.7 Exacta $ 10.2 Superfecta $ 8.9 Pick Four $ 2.4 ‘Susan /Preakness Double $ 716k

Largest Preakness Crowds Attendance Year Winner 140,327 2017 Cloud Computing 135,256 2016 Exaggerator 134,487 2018 Justify 131,680 2015 American Pharoah 123,469 2014 California Chrome 121,309 2012 I’ll Have Another 121,264 2007 Curlin

Know ThisFather’s Day: 10 times the Preakness winner has been sired by a Preakness winner, including Exaggerator (2016) by ’07 winner Curlin.

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Derby Alumni Escape Traffic By Dick Jerardi, Daily Racing Form@DickJerardi

1. WAR OF WILL

2. IMPROBABLE

3. ALWAYSMINING

4. OWENDALE

The Last... Winner to close from more than 10 lengths back:Exaggerator (2016) from 11 ½ lengths back after ¼ mile.

Non-Kentucky Derby alum to win: Cloud Computing (2017); prior Rachel Alexandra (2009)

Kentucky Derby off-the-board finisher to win: Oxbow (2013)

Preakness “Last Times”



1 1/2 Miles Turf

Steve’s Picks

1. ALWAYSMINING

2. IMPROBABLE

3. WAR OF WILL

4. OWENDALE

Analysis: In the last 18 years, 14 Preakness winners arrived from Louisville with the only

exceptions Bernardini (2005), Rachel Alexandra (2009) and Cloud Computing (2017).

While the top Derby finishers will be absent from this Preakness, IMPROBABLE, WAR

OF WILL, WIN WIN WIN and BODEXPRESS come from Louisville with excuses. In 2018,

Justify extended Bob Baffert’s Preakness win total to 7. Whether or not a horseplayer

should follow trends and go with a Louisville graduate or a new face is critical.

Main Contenders: Likely favorite IMPROBABLE adds Mike Smith for this and should

enjoy a trip behind the leaders. With modest speed signed on, Casse and Barber’s WAR

OF WILL figures prominently throughout off his outstanding Derby effort. The clear

controlling speed is a popular local Maryland-bred. ALWAYSMINING, who rides a 6-race

win skein into Old Hilltop, seeks to become the first locally-produced Preakness winner

since Deputed Testimony (1983) and the first gelding to win the 2nd jewell since Funny

Cide (2003). ANOTHERTWISTAFATE fell short on Derby points but has a free bingo spot

in Preakness.

Value Plays: Having sent Sweetnorthernsaint to a Preakness placement behind

Bernardini, WIN WIN WIN will be Maryland-based trainer Mike Trombetta’s 2nd

Preakness starter and should make headway late. OWENDALE is a slow developer for

Brad Cox, but he wasn’t disgraced in the Risen Star behind WAR OF WILL and Country

House. His Lexington upset was the kind of forward step quality 3-year-olds make in

spring. LAUGHING FOX parlayed his Rebel 4th behind Omaha Beach, IMPROBABLE and

Country House into an Oklawn Invitational victory and should pick up pieces.


• $2 Trifecta Part-Wheel: ALWAYSMINING, IMPROBABLE, WAR OF WILL with

ALWAYSMINING, IMPROBABLE, WAR OF WILL with ALWAYSMINING, IMPROBABLE,

WAR OF WILL, OWENDALE, WIN WIN WIN, LAUGHING FOX, BOURBON WAR,

ANOTHERTWISTAFATE, SIGNALMAN ($84)

• $2 Exacta Part-Wheel: IMPROBABLE, WAR OF WILL, OWENDALE, WIN WIN WIN,

LAUGHING FOX, BOURBON WAR, ANOTHERTWISTAFATE, SIGNALMAN with

ALWAYSMINING ($16)

Stats & TrendsLongshot Winners(15-1 or more)$2 Payoff Horse Year $48.80 Master Derby 1975 $45.60 Coventry 1925 $40.70 Display 1926 $39.40 Bee Bee Bee 1972 $32.80 Oxbow 2013 $32.00 Hindus 1900 $32.00 Don Enrique 1907

Preakness Rebounds (Derby 5th or Worse and Won Preakness) Year Horse Finish2013 Oxbow 6th 2010 Lookin at Lucky 6th 2001 Point Given 5th1996 Louis Quatorze 16th1994 Tabasco Cat 6th1992 Pine Bluff 5th1991 Hansel 10th1986 Snow Chief 11th1985 Tank’s Prospect 7th1984 Gate Dancer 5th1974 Little Current 5th1970 Personality 8th1927 Bostonian 5th1926 Display 10th1900 Hindus 7th

Know ThisBaffert or Who?: The last 5 Preakness Stakes have been won by either Bob Baffert (2015 & 2018) or a trainer in a Preakness debut: Art Sherman (2014), Keith Desormeaux (2016), Chad Brown (2017).

One-Two Punchless: Horses running 1-2 at the half-mile call of the Preakness haven’t finished 1-2 since Louis Quatorze and Skip Away (1996).

Fabulous Favorites: The Preakness favorite is 73-for-144 all-time, a winning rate of 51%, including 3 of the last 5 favorites.

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’Mining for GoldBy Steve Byk, At the Races (SiriusXM)@Steve_Byk



1 1/2 Miles Turf

Eddie’s Picks

1. BOURBON WAR

2. WIN WIN WIN

3. IMPROBABLE

4. WAR OF WILL

Analysis: : Flat-out, it’s disappointing that the Kentucky Derby top-3 (plus Maximum Security) are not here for the Preakness. But

that’s horse racing, and we horseplayers know that you play the hand you’re dealt. What we got was a race that’s highly interesting to

bet and a favorite, IMPROBABLE, who is not a lock like we see many years at Pimlico. Expect a quick pace as this does not look like a

Preakness that will be won wire-to-wire. It sets up for a closer so long as we have a fast track.

Main Contenders: IMPROBABLE has had many opportunities to win this year and simply has not. As much as I respect Bob Baffert

and Mike Smith, if IMPROBABLE wins, I lose. He’s slotted underneath for the exotics and can be expected to run his race. But he’ll

have to prove to me that’s good enough. WAR OF WILL, stuck on the rail again, almost has to go early now. That’s going to quicken

the pace that already looked quick enough. I expect IMPROBABLE to take money, WAR OF WILL to take money, and the local horse

ALWAYSMINING probably will get bet, too, off his win streak.

Value Plays: The closers get the right set-up and should be the right price. I played BOURBON WAR and front-running

BODEXPRESS in the Xpressbet Florida Derby and I’m still backing BOURBON WAR as the closer to beat in the Preakness. I like that

BOURBON WAR now has had some time off, adds blinkers and his last work at XBTV.com impressed me. He’s got a great post to save

ground with speed to his inside and outside. He’s the horse they all have to hold off at the end. His morning line may be too high at

12-1; I’d go in with both feet if he’s 12-1. But I’ll be happy with something between 6-1 and 8-1. The other closer to help the ticket

would be WIN WIN WIN. He didn’t care for the slop at Churchill, but his Blue Grass showed off a big middle-move before hitting

traffic and having to restart his rally.


• $45 Win and Place: BOURBON WAR ($90)

• $5 Exacta Box: BOURBON WAR and WIN WIN WIN ($10)

Pour the Bourbon By Eddie Olczyk, NBC Sports Handicapper



1 1/2 Miles Turf

Brent’s Picks

1. IMPROBABLE

2. ALWAYSMINING

3. EVERFAST

4. MARKET KING

Analysis: To say that this is an unusual running of the Preakness Stakes is an understatement. It has been 23 years since the Kentucky

Derby winner has not come back to race at Pimlico – and 68 years since every horse that finished in the money at Churchill Downs

skipped Baltimore. While the impossibility of a Triple Crown may keep casual fans away, the good news is that the favorite will not

carry the usual, huge underlay, and sharp bettors will hold more influence this weekend.

Main Contenders: By crossing the finish line fifth and being promoted to fourth, IMPROBABLE had the best finish of the four

Kentucky Derby horses entered in the Preakness. He also has the benefit of being ridden by Mike Smith and trained by fellow Hall of

Famer Bob Baffert, who has won the Preakness a record-tying seven times. But Baffert is only 2-for-14 in the Preakness with horses

that did not win the Run for the Roses. While Smith is only 2-for-17 in the Preakness, he is 2-for-3 riding the post-time favorite. Don’t

forget that IMPROBABLE has yet to win at age 3. WAR OF WILL got the worst of it when Maximum Security committed the foul that

was heard ’round the racing world. He has had troubled trips in his last two races as he tries to reclaim the form he showed with two

graded-stakes wins at the Fair Grounds. ALWAYSMINING is the local favorite, having won six in a row in Maryland by an average of six

lengths. He won the traditional Preakness prep – the Xpressbet Federico Tesio – by 11 lengths and is trying to pull off the first Tesio-

Preakness double since Deputed Testamony in 1983.

Value Plays: There should be no lack of early speed, and that means closers like Xpressbet Fountain of Youth runner-up BOURBON

WAR and Oaklawn Park Invitational winner LAUGHING FOX could pick up the pieces. Lexington Stakes winner OWENDALE got more

interesting with the supplement this week of his Brad Cox-trained stablemate WARRIOR’S CHARGE. He is a potential rabbit that could

keep company with MARKET KING, a speed horse trained by six-time Preakness winner D. Wayne Lukas, 83, and ridden by Jon Court,

58. ANOTHERTWISTAFATE has been aimed specifically for this race since he finished first in the El Camino Real Derby, but he has yet

to win on real dirt. Kentucky Derby graduate BODEXPRESS was second in the Xpressbet Florida Derby, and with Hall of Famer John

Velázquez riding, he could be the first maiden to win the Preakness since 1888. WIN WIN WIN was promoted to ninth in the Derby.

He and SIGNALMAN finished two-three in the Blue Grass but did not win any Derby preps in the 2019 calendar year. EVERFAST was

fifth in the Pat Day Mile two weeks ago and has lost nine in a row since a debut win last summer at Ellis Park.


• $20 Win, Place: IMPROBABLE ($40)

• $20 Win, Place: ALWAYSMINING ($40)

• $20 Win: EVERFAST ($20)

Improbable Tops inWide-Open Preakness By Brent Musburger, Vegas Stats & Information Network (VSiN) @BrentMusburger

may 18, 2019 pimlico race course - xpressbet.com · fellow racing fan, congratulations to the...

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