may, 2019 commercialising east coast australia’s …gas consumption actual and forecast, 2010-38...

25
COMMERCIALISING EAST COAST AUSTRALIA’S LARGEST UNCONTRACTED 2P RESERVE MAY, 2019 Leigh Creek Energy Limited For personal use only

Upload: others

Post on 09-Jun-2020

1 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

COMMERCIALISING EAST COAST AUSTRALIA’S LARGEST UNCONTRACTED2P RESERVE

MAY, 2019

Leigh Creek Energy Limited

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

This presentation has been prepared by, or for Leigh Creek Energy Limited (LCK). It contains, and we may make other written or verbal forward looking statements with respect to certain of LCK’s plans, current goals and expectations relating to future financial condition, performance, results, strategic initiatives and objectives. By their nature, all forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty and are subject to factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated in this presentation and/or any statement, including forward-looking statements. Some of the factors that could cause actual results or trends to differ materially, include but are not limited to: price fluctuations; actual demand; currency fluctuations; drilling & production results; reserve estimates; loss of market; industry competition; market developments and government actions; environmental risks, physical risks, legislative, fiscal & regulatory developments; local, regional and international political, regulatory, economic & financial market conditions; political risks; the effect of losses due to defaults by counterparties or restructurings, on the value of our investments; changes in interest rates or inflation; changes in equity and/or prices on our investment portfolio; the impact of natural and man-made catastrophic events on our business activities and results of operations; our reliance on information and technology and third-party service providers for certain of our operations and systems; legal proceedings and regulatory investigations; the impact of operational risks, including inadequate or failed internal and external processes, systems and human error or from external events (including cyber attack); risks associated with arrangements with third parties, including joint ventures; the failure to attract or retain the necessary key personnel; systems errors or regulatory changes; the effect of fluctuations in share price as a result of general market conditions or otherwise; the effect of simplifying our operating st ructure and activities; the effect of a decline in any ratings or recommendations on our standing among customers, broker-dealers, shareholders, agents, wholesalers and/or other distributors of our products and/or services; changes to our brand / reputation; changes in government regulations or tax laws in jurisdictions where we conduct business; the inability to protect our intellectual property; the effect of undisclosed liabilities; the timing of any regulatory approvals, integration risk, and other uncertainties, such as non-realisation of expected benefits or diversion of management attention and other resources, relating to future acquisitions and/or pending disposals; project delays or advancement; approvals & cost estimates amongst other items & the cumulative impact of items.

While we try to ensure that the information we provide is accurate and complete, LCK advises you to verify the accuracy of an y information and/or statement, including a forward-looking statement before relying on it. LCK has no obligation to update the forward-looking statements in this presentation or any other forward-looking statements we may make. Forward-looking statements in this presentation are current only as of the date on which such statements are made.

This presentation may also contain non-IFRS measures that are unaudited, but are derived from & reconciled to the audited accounts. These should only be considered in addition to, and not as a substitute for, or superior to, our IFRS financial measures. All references to dollars, cents or $ in this presentation are to Australian currency, unless otherwise stated.

Gas Resources Compliance StatementThe PRMS resources estimates stated herein are based on, and fairly represent, information and supporting documentation prepa red by Timothy Hower of MHA Petroleum Consulting, Denver USA. Mr Hower is a member of the Society of Petroleum Engineers and has consented to the use of the Resource estimates and supporting information contained herein in the from and context in which it appears. All estimates are based on the deterministic method for estimation of petroleum resources.

Mineral Resource Compliance StatementEstimates of Mineral Resources reported in this announcement are based on the latest information and data available. The recently updated Geological Model and JORC Resource Estimation report, prepared by Warwick Smyth & Lynne Banwell of GeoConsult Pty Ltd during March 2019 was used in this latest PRMS estimation. A copy of the GeoConsult report on the updated Geological Model and JORC Resource Estimation is available to view at www.lcke.com.au.

LCK is not aware of any new information or data that materially affects this information & all the material assumptions & technical parameters underpinning the estimates continue to apply & have not materially changed.

DisclaimerF

or p

erso

nal u

se o

nly

ENERGY DEVELOPMENT COMPANY

100% OWNER AND OPERATOR

ISG: IN-SITU GASIFICATION PROCESS

Based in Adelaide, South Australia

Leigh Creek Energy Project (LCEP)

The LCEP utilizes ISG process on the Leigh Creek Coalfield to develop the deep coal resources that are unable to be accessed through open-pit mining

Leigh Creek Energy

ASX: LCKRESERVE STATUS

PRMS Reserve 2P 1,153PJ

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

ISG PROCESSConverts underground coal to

Syngas, Contains hydrogen, methane,

and carbon monoxide.

RESERVESThe Company holds a larger

2P reserve than the Otway, Bass, Gunnedah, Clarence-

Moreton, Sydney and Galilee

Basins COMBINED.(1)

SHAREHOLDERSAustralia, US institutions as

well as Chinese strategic partners.

INFRASTRUCTUREPower, road, rail, airport,

suitable geology, and fair diligent regulatory process.

SYNGASCan be processed for

conversion into natural gas, petrochemical products, or

agricultural products, like

Urea

Leigh Creek Energy (ASX:LCK)

LCEP is Australia’s largest uncontracted 2P gas reserve serving the East Coast market

Reserves (PJ)

2P

1,153

3P

1,608

Resources (PJ)2C

1,469

3C

2,127 (1) Australian Competition & Consumer Commission analysis of data obtained from gas producers

LCEP

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

Next Milestones

• Completion of operations and decommissioning of

PCD

• Commercial agreements, Approvals

• Full Feasibility Study

Milestones Achieved

• Apr 2018 - South Australian Environmental approval received

• Oct 2018 - LCEP Operations achieved "First Gas"

• Feb 2019 - PCD successfully met its design parameters

• Mar 2019 - 2P reserve certified

The LCEP has received a PRMS certification of 1,153 PJ 2P and is now Australia’s largest uncontracted 2P gas reserve serving the East Coast

market!

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

Capital Structure

Environmental Approval

PCD Construction Commences

ApprovalPCD OperationsCCCC Ltd visit

First Syngas

Pre-Commercial Demonstration

Success

2P Reserve Status

ASX:LCKA$0.29 per share

548.1 million sharesMC A$159 million

Top shareholdersChina New Energy Group

136.3m - 24.9%

Crown Ascent45.8 - 8.4%

HSBC Custody Noms Australia14.5m - 2.7 %

CITIC Australia17.2m - 3.2%

Rubi Holdings Pty Ltd 13.5m - 2.5%

Note: Data taken from Bloomberg on 4/9/19

Total 548.1m - 100%

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

3,000

2,000

1,000

0

2P Reserves comparables by basin

Quantity of reserves and resources in the East Coast Gas Market as of June 2018 (PJ). Excludes Surat/Bowen Basin.Source: Australian Competition & Consumer Commission analysis of data obtained from gas producers

(PJ)

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

6,000

4,000

2,000

0

Australian East Coast Gas 2P Reserves

Australian East Coast Reserve Comparables

These gas reserves are primarily contracted to LNG export projects

Source: Leigh Creek Energy

2P R

eser

ves

(PJ)

Source: Leigh Creek Energy Limited

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

LCK Senex Blue Energy Central Petroleum Cooper Energy Beach Energy

$3

$2

$1

$0

$1.79 per GJ transaction price set by sale of the Ironbark gas project to APLNG on (Feb. 19, 2019)

Peer group average $1.43 per GJ

0.13

0.67

0.92

1.33

2.692.86

Enterprise Value per 2P Reserve Comparables (GJ)

Australian Pacific LNGOrigin

ConocoPhillipsSinopec

Source: Leigh Creek Energy, Bloomberg as of March 25th, 2019

A$

per

GJ

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

Milestones

CHARACTERSATION PHASE

Environmental Approval

PCD Construction Commences

Surface Plant Construction

Q2

Construction and Commissioning

Completed

ISG WellInstallation

2019

Initiation of PCD Operations

ISG Well Pair Completed

Commercial Gas at the PCD Plant

PRMS Upgrade to 2P

Completion of PCD Operations

Decommissioning of PCD

Q3 Q1 Q22018

DEMONSTRATION PHASE

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

Pathway to commercial

2019-H2 2020 2021+ 2022 2023+

Complete options analysis,Geotechnical investigation, Commercial arrangements

settled

EIS approval, FEED, Feasibility completed

Commercial Project Operation

EIS submitted, Pre-feasibility study completed

FID & Commence Commercial Project

Construction

PCD Operations 2P Reserve Fertiliser Production and/or Gas Sales

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

LCEP’s gas resource has multiple commercialisation options in Australia.

Fertiliser vs Natural Gas

TARGET MARKET

Fertiliser

(highest value long term)

Domestic natural gas sales

Urea price is recovering from a cyclical low and prices are forecast to fundamentally improve vs. domestic gas prices in

Australia, which are a function of public policy, existing supply constraints and new demand from LNG export terminals.

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

Strong MarketDynamics

Gas Demand

$10GJ norm

Contract certainty/term

FertilizerDemand

Supply Factors

Restriction on gas exploration due to politics

95% Imported

Australian producer under pressure

LNG Gladstone

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

Source:“2018 Gas Statement of Opportunities”, AEMO, June 2018

Gas consumption actual and forecast, 2010-38

• LNG exports have increased demand 3x since 2014

2,250

2,000

1,750

1,500

1,250

1,000

750

500

250

0

Industrial

LNG

Residential / Commercial GPG

NGFR 2016 2017 GSOO September Update

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

Supply Response -

Constrained

Environmental liabilities increased to include

shareholders+

Coal seam gas wells under performing

Developmentsrestricted

Ban on new onshore oil and gas exploration

Early stage regulatory framework

LCEP

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

Gas Market

• East Coast demand tripled: LNG exports = price

• Major suppliers need more gas!

• Regulator predicts growing gas shortage

from 2018/19+

Source – ASX Gas Futures 15 May 2019

$/G

JF

or p

erso

nal u

se o

nly

AMMONIA AND UREAHIGH DEMAND PRODUCTS

2NH3 + CO2

Primarily used for fertiliser (primary production)

UREA

Value added products with diverse range of downstream products

NH3

Primarily used in chemical/industrial, minerals processing, explosives, etc

AMMONIA

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

Historical prices and forecasts are correlated to

energy prices.

Urea and Ammonia require considerable energy to

produce

World demand was estimated at 175Mt/a in 2016.

Australian Urea demand is stable at 2.5Mt/a with +90% being imported

Global Fertilizer Demand Drivers

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

Australia Fertilizer Market

Urea & Ammonia

Australia imports 95% of fertilizer products, especiallyUrea.

Australian fertilizer producer buys methane and convertto syngas

The Middle East remains a major supplier of Urea andAmmonia globally, however shipping these fertilizerstakes ~24 days to reach Australia.

Foreign exchange fluctuations impact the profits ofdomestic suppliers of fertilizer

• Saudi Arabia

• Bangladesh• China

• Kuwait

Main countries of origin for Urea imported to Australia:

• Malaysia

• Qatar• USA

Source: Profercy Urea Outlook to 2030, January 2018 (Copyright 2018 Profercy Ltd)

Middle East: Granular Urea to 2030 (spot, nominal A$)F

or p

erso

nal u

se o

nly

UREA VS NATURAL GAS

LCEP benefits from geographic advantages

• Urea and Ammonia can be produced on site

• No need for expensive methane feedstock

• LCEP is located near a large agricultural

demand centre, South Australia, and can be

delivered anywhere domestically by existing

rail infrastructure

• LCK feedstock price at significant advantageFor

per

sona

l use

onl

y

Ammonia is made by a series of chemical reactions

Urea production requires (consumes) CO2

Excess CO2 can be sequestered in underground chamber

Carbon Budget

Ammonia (2NH3) + CO2 = Urea

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

UREA60PJ per year

GAS2Mt per year

$2.60B NPV$4.25B NPV

14.3% IRR15.1% IRR

6.9 Year payback6.3 Year payback

30+ year life30+ year life

$2.85B Capex$3.21B Capex

2023+ Start Date2023+ Start DateBased on TK report 2018 Based on Prudentia report 2018

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

JUSTYN PETERS

Executive Chairman

PHIL STAVELEY

Managing Director

NOEL WHITCHER

Chief Financial Officer

The people behind this

The TeamCRISTIAN BOLDA

General Manager Operations

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

• Environmental Approval

• PCD operations

• PRMS upgrade

• PCD Completion and Decommissioning

• Improving market and strong macroeconomic trends

Right Market, Right Time, Right Place

Recent de-risking events

Resource + Approval + Execution = Results

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y

CONTACT US

LEIGH CREEK ENERGY

Level 11 - 19 Grenfell StreetAdelaide SA 5000 - AustraliaPhone +61 (8) 8132 9100Facsimile +61 (8) 8231 7574

EMAIL

[email protected]

LINKEDIN

Leigh Creek Energy Limited

For

per

sona

l use

onl

y