may 26 , 2021
TRANSCRIPT
1
Response Letter
Manuscript ID: BMJ-2021-064733
Title: Use of Antipsychotic Medications and Cholinesterase Inhibitors and the Risk of Falls and Fractures: self-
controlled case series
Committee Members: Dr. John Fletcher (Chair), Dr. Gary Collins (Statistician), Dr. Tiago Villanueva, Dr. Di
Wang, Dr. Wim Weber, Dr. Nazrul Islam, Dr. Elizabeth Loder, Dr. Helen Macdonald, Dr. David Ludwig, Dr.
Joseph Ross, Dr. Jessica Kimpton, Dr. Timothy Feeney
May 26th, 2021
Dear Editors and Reviewers,
Thank you very much for your consideration of our paper. We appreciate your thorough and constructive
reviews. We have considered all comments carefully and incorporated the suggestions to revise our manuscript.
Our point-by-point responses to the reviewers’ comments are provided below. To facilitate your review, we have
provided a summary of tables for the additional sensitivity analyses at the beginning of this letter. Following the
reviewers’ suggestion, we have replaced the terms “dementia” and “behavioural and psychological symptoms of
dementia (BPSD)” with the more up-to-date terminology “major neurocognitive disorder (NCD)” and
“neuropsychiatric symptoms of NCD”, respectively.
We believe that we have improved our manuscript sufficiently to be accepted for publication in the British
Journal of Medicine.
Kind Regards,
Edward Chia-Cheng Lai, PhD
Associate Professor, School of Pharmacy, Institute of Clinical Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Sciences,
Medical College, National Cheng Kung University, No. 1, University Road, East District, Tainan City, 701, Taiwan,
886-235-3535 ext 4554, [email protected]
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Summary of Tables for Additional Sensitivity Analyses
Review
Committee Rev. 1 Rev. 2 Rev. 3 Rev. 4
Supp. Table
3-1
Stratified by sex Comment
#4 - - - #8
Supp. Table
3-2
Stratified by age groups (65-74 years, 75-
84 years and 85+ years) - - - - -
Supp. Table
3-3
Stratified by patients’ anticholinergic
burden (Anticholinergic Drug Scale 2+ or
0-1) - #6 - - -
Supp. Table
3-4
Stratified by cumulative dose of
antipsychotic medications - #5-2 - - -
Supp. Table
3-5
Restricted outcomes to outpatient settings
only - #3 - - -
Supp. Table
3-6
Re-selected study populations without
exclusion of schizophrenia, bipolar
disorder, and depression
Comment
#2 - #9 - #2
Supp. Table
3-7
Excluded patients who died during the
study period/within 3 months after the
event - - - - -
Supp. Table
3-8
Restricted to specific codes for the
outcome definition Comment
#3 - - #2 -
Supp. Table
3-9
Counted all episodes of falls and fractures
- - - - #6
Supp. Table
3-10
Redefined the length of the pre-exposure
period from 14 days to 7, 21 and 28 days Comment
#5 - - #1-2 -
Supp. Table
3-11
Focusing on individual antipsychotic
medications - #5-1 - - -
Supp. Table
3-12
Further defined the periods within 1-14
days after initiation of exposure and within
1-14 days after discontinuation of
treatment
- - - - #4
3
Response to the review committee
Comment 1:
The numbers in the flowchart does not add up. For example, 11915 were excluded in the final step, but reasons
were given for 2288 and 4613 patients. Please revise and correct the numbers. Please also add the reasons for
exclusion.
Thank you for pointing this out. We have revised the flowchart and added the reasons for each exclusion
criterion. Please refer to the revised Figure 1.
Revision:
(METHODS, Study Population)
We excluded patients with a record of antipsychotic medications or ChEIs, or an episode of fall or fracture from
2003 to 2005 (washout period) to ensure that the whole study population consisted of incident drug users without
a history of falls or fractures. We also excluded patients with underlying schizophrenia and bipolar disorder to
ensure that antipsychotic medications were used to treat the neuropsychiatric symptoms of major NCD.
(Figure 1: Selection flowchart of the study population)
Comment 2:
In the methods section, it says "We also excluded patients with a record of schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, and
depression because these mental disorders might have confounded the result estimation." However, confounding
may not be justified for exclusion because confounders could be adjusted for in the analysis. Please present the
analysis after adjusting for these, and/or present the results stratified by these conditions.
Thank you for the suggestion. We have added the suggested analyses and revised the manuscript accordingly.
Briefly, we found the results to be consistent with the main analysis, although some of the subgroups had
relatively small numbers and produced a wide range of confidence intervals. Please review the results below. The
full version of the sensitivity analyses is available in Supplementary Table 3-6.
Revision:
4
(METHODS, Study Population)
We also excluded patients with underlying schizophrenia and bipolar disorder to ensure that antipsychotic
medications were used to treat the neuropsychiatric symptoms of major NCD.
(METHODS, Sensitivity Analyses, 2nd paragraph)
To examine the effect of excluding schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, we conducted sensitivity analyses without
exclusion of these mental conditions. We then further stratified this population by schizophrenia, bipolar disorder,
and depression to examine the individual effects from these conditions (Supplementary Table 3-6).
(RESULTS, Sensitivity Analyses)
Only 513 patients were excluded from the main analysis due to schizophrenia or bipolar disorder, and when we
re-selected the study population without excluding schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, the adjusted IRR of the
pre-exposure period was 6.07 (5.60, 6.57). The adjusted IRRs of the pre-exposure period were 2.94 (0.70, 12.37)
for those with schizophrenia, 3.24 (1.76, 5.99) for those with bipolar disorder, and 4.13 (3.49, 4.90) for those
with depression. Of note is the large confidence interval of the schizophrenia group, which is due to its limited
sample size (n=98).
(Supplementary Table 3-6)
Events, n
Follow-up time,
person-years,
sum
IR (95%CI),
/100 person-years
Adjusted IRR
(95%CI)
Re-selected study patients without
excluding schizophrenia and bipolar
disorder (n=15,791)
Non-exposure 10,541 126,870.74 8.31 (8.15, 8.47) Reference
Pre-exposure 670 1,299.57 51.56 (47.76, 55.57) 6.07 (5.60, 6.57)
Cholinesterase inhibitor alone 1,829 19,437.05 9.41 (8.99, 9.85) 1.17 (1.10, 1.24)
Antipsychotic medication alone 1,435 13,941.15 10.29 (9.77, 10.84) 1.32 (1.24, 1.42)
Combination 1,316 12,567.72 10.47 (9.92, 11.05) 1.33 (1.24, 1.43)
With schizophrenia (n=98)
Non-exposure 60 711.20 8.44 (6.50, 10.78) Reference
Pre-exposure 2 8.70 22.99 (3.85, 75.95) 2.94 (0.70,12.37)
Cholinesterase inhibitor alone 3 59.73 5.02 (1.28, 13.67) 0.66 (0.16, 2.72)
Antipsychotic medication alone 21 210.63 9.97 (6.34, 14.98) 1.55 (0.80, 2.99)
Combination 12 101.84 11.78 (6.38, 20.03) 1.79 (0.75, 4.28)
Without schizophrenia (n=15,693)
Non-exposure 10,481 126,159.54 8.31 (8.15, 8.47) Reference
Pre-exposure 668 1,290.97 51.74 (47.93, 55.78) 6.08 (5.61, 6.59)
Cholinesterase inhibitor alone 1,826 19,377.32 9.42 (9.00, 9.86) 1.17 (1.10, 1.24)
Antipsychotic medication alone 1,414 13,730.52 10.30 (9.77, 10.85) 1.32 (1.23, 1.42)
Combination 1,304 12,465.88 10.46 (9.90, 11.04) 1.33 (1.24, 1.43)
With bipolar disorder (n=426)
Non-exposure 277 3,257.41 8.50 (7.55, 9.55) Reference
Pre-exposure 11 37.04 29.70 (15.62, 51.62) 3.24 (1.76, 5.99)
Cholinesterase inhibitor alone 37 362.88 10.20 (7.29, 13.91) 1.19 (0.79, 1.81)
Antipsychotic medication alone 67 688.24 9.74 (7.60, 12.29) 1.12 (0.80, 1.58)
Combination 34 435.18 7.81 (5.50, 10.79) 0.84 (0.55, 1.30)
Without bipolar disorder (n=15,365)
Non-exposure 10,264 123,613.33 8.30 (8.14, 8.47) Reference
Pre-exposure 659 1,262.54 52.20 (48.32, 56.30) 6.15 (5.67, 6.67)
Cholinesterase inhibitor alone 1,792 19,074.17 9.40 (8.97, 9.84) 1.17 (1.10, 1.24)
Antipsychotic medication alone 1,368 13,252.92 10.32 (9.79, 10.88) 1.33 (1.24, 1.43)
Combination 1,282 12,132.54 10.57 (10.00, 11.16) 1.35 (1.26, 1.45)
With depression (n=4,743)
Non-exposure 3,321 38,500.25 8.63 (8.34, 8.92) Reference
Pre-exposure 144 399.33 36.06 (30.52, 42.32) 4.13 (3.49, 4.90)
Cholinesterase inhibitor alone 435 5,049.01 8.62 (7.83, 9.45) 1.03 (0.91, 1.16)
5
*Note: this is a truncated version for inclusion in the letter only. The manuscript displays a full table.
Comment 3:
Please add the elaboration of the ICD codes in the Supplementary Appendix. One Editor highlighted that some of
the ICD codes are for non-specific conditions. Please justify using all the codes. Also, add the results after
excluding the non-specific codes for the outcome.
Thank you for the recommendation. We have added the ICD codes in Supplementary Table 1. We selected all
possible diagnosis codes in order to ensure we captured all events and covariates from the database. We have
revised the manuscript and cited some references listed below to justify the codes we used in the study, and they
were based on previous studies.
In addition, to examine the robustness of our study results, we have conducted a sensitivity analysis focusing on
specific diagnosis codes for falls (i.e., falls from a different level and falls from the same level) and hip fractures
(given that hip fractures are mainly caused by falls). We found the results remained consistent with the main
analysis. Please review the results below and the full version in Supplementary Table 3-8.
Revision:
(METHODS, Data Sources)
Many major disease diagnoses in the NHID have been validated by previous studies, including ischemic stroke
[1], epilepsy [2], hypertension [3], diabetes [3], hyperlipidaemia [3], coronary artery disease [3], atrial fibrillation
[3], heart failure [4], Parkinson’s disease [5], major NCD [5], schizophrenia [6], bipolar disorder [6], and
depression [6]. The diagnosis codes for osteoarthritis [7], osteoporosis [7], cataract [7], falls [8], and fractures [7]
have not been validated, but they were selected based on previous studies and expert opinions from a psychiatrist
and a geriatrician.
(METHODS, Sensitivity Analyses, 2nd paragraph)
Moreover, we carried out a sensitivity analysis and selected specific diagnostic codes for falls and fractures (i.e.,
falls from a different level [ICD-9: E880-E884; ICD-10: W00.1, W00.2, W05-W17], falls from the same level
[ICD-9: E885-E886; ICD-10: W00.0, W01-W04, W18], and hip fractures [ICD-9: 820; ICD-10: S72]) to
examine the validity of the outcomes. The reason for selecting hip fractures was that more than 95% of hip
fractures are related to falls [9] (Supplementary Table 3-8). .
(DISCUSSION, Strengths and Weaknesses)
Third, we selected all diagnosis codes related to falls and fractures to ensure we had captured all possible
outcome events from the database. However, some of the codes, such as E888 in ICD-9 and W19 in ICD-10 (i.e.,
unspecified falls), might not have been specific enough to reflect the relationship between exposures and
outcomes in this study. To evaluate the potential impact from these non-specific outcomes, we conducted a
Antipsychotic medication alone 465 5,029.55 9.25 (8.43, 10.11) 1.12 (1.00, 1.27)
Combination 378 4,287.04 8.82 (7.96, 9.74) 1.06 (0.93, 1.20)
Without depression (n=11,048)
Non-exposure 7,220 88,370.49 8.17 (7.98, 8.36) Reference
Pre-exposure 526 900.25 58.43 (53.59, 63.58) 6.95 (6.34, 7.61)
Cholinesterase inhibitor alone 1,394 14,388.04 9.69 (9.19, 10.21) 1.22 (1.14, 1.31)
Antipsychotic medication alone 970 8,911.60 10.88 (10.22, 11.59) 1.43 (1.32, 1.56)
Combination 938 8,280.68 11.33 (10.62, 12.07) 1.48 (1.37, 1.61)
6
sensitivity analysis selecting only specific codes for falls and fractures. The results were consistent with the main
analysis.
Newly cited references:
1. Hsieh C-Y, Chen C-H, Li C-Y, Lai M-L. Validating the diagnosis of acute ischemic stroke in a National Health Insurance
claims database. Journal of the Formosan Medical Association. 2015;114(3):254-9.
2. Chen CC, Chen LS, Yen MF, Chen HH, Liou HH. Geographic variation in the age‐and gender‐specific prevalence and
incidence of epilepsy: Analysis of Taiwanese National Health Insurance–based data. Epilepsia. 2012;53(2):283-90.
3. Sung S-F, Hsieh C-Y, Lin H-J, Chen Y-W, Yang Y-HK, Li C-Y. Validation of algorithms to identify stroke risk factors in
patients with acute ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack, or intracerebral hemorrhage in an administrative claims
database. International journal of cardiology. 2016;215:277-82.
4. Lin YS, Chen TH, Chi CC, Lin MS, Tung TH, Liu CH, et al. Different implications of heart failure, ischemic stroke, and
mortality between nonvalvular atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter—a view from a national cohort study. Journal of the
American Heart Association. 2017;6(7):e006406.
5. Liu C-C, Sun Y, Lee P-C, Li C-Y, Hu SC. Risk of dementia after Parkinson’s disease in Taiwan: a population-based
retrospective cohort study using National Health Insurance claims. BMJ open. 2019;9(3):e025274.
6. Wu C-S, Kuo C-J, Su C-H, Wang SH, Dai H-J. Using text mining to extract depressive symptoms and to validate the
diagnosis of major depressive disorder from electronic health records. Journal of affective disorders. 2020;260:617-23.
7. Wei MY, Luster JE, Chan C-L, Min L. Comprehensive review of ICD-9 code accuracies to measure multimorbidity in
administrative data. BMC health services research. 2020;20:1-11.
8. Chien WC, Lai CH, Chung CH, Lin CH. A retrospective population-based data analyses of unintentional fall mortality and
hospitalisation in Taiwan during 2005-2007. Int J Inj Contr Saf Promot. 2013;20(1):50
9. Parkkari J, Kannus P, Palvanen M, Natri A, Vainio J, Aho H, et al. Majority of hip fractures occur as a result of a fall and
impact on the greater trochanter of the femur: a prospective controlled hip fracture study with 206 consecutive patients.
Calcified tissue international. 1999;65(3):183-7
(Supplementary Table 3-8)
Comment 4:
Please add the results stratified by sex as suggested by the reviewers.
Thank you for the suggestion. We have added the suggested analysis accordingly, and the results were consistent
with the main analysis. Please review the results below and the full version in Supplementary Table 3-1.
Events, n
Follow-up time,
person-years,
sum
Incidence rate (95%CI),
100 person-years
Adjusted IRR
(95%CI)
Redefine the outcome by specific
codes, all events (n=5,458)
Non-exposure 3,300 42,804.53 7.71 (7.45, 7.98) Reference
Pre-exposure 379 453.89 83.50 (75.40, 92.23) 10.16 (9.10,11.35)
Cholinesterase inhibitor alone 648 6,716.32 9.65 (8.93, 10.41) 1.22 (1.11, 1.35)
Antipsychotic medication alone 594 5,272.78 11.27 (10.39, 12.20) 1.52 (1.36, 1.69)
Combination 537 4,321.32 12.43 (11.41, 13.51) 1.67 (1.49, 1.87)
falls (n=621)
Non-exposure 272 5,468.39 4.97 (4.41, 5.59) Reference
Pre-exposure 73 51.14 142.70 (112.70, 178.50) 10.77 (8.19,14.16)
Cholinesterase inhibitor alone 95 780.78 12.17 (9.90, 14.81) 0.87 (0.65, 1.16)
Antipsychotic medication alone 89 474.53 18.76 (15.15, 22.97) 1.26 (0.91, 1.74)
Combination 92 404.43 22.75 (18.44, 27.77) 1.49 (1.09, 2.04)
fractures (n=5,149)
Non-exposure 3,139 40,185.37 7.81 (7.54, 8.09) Reference
Pre-exposure 357 428.79 83.26 (74.95, 92.24) 10.41 (9.29,11.66)
Cholinesterase inhibitor alone 603 6,325.23 9.53 (8.80, 10.32) 1.26 (1.13, 1.39)
Antipsychotic medication alone 554 5,014.47 11.05 (10.16, 12.00) 1.57 (1.40, 1.76)
Combination 496 4,115.68 12.05 (11.03, 13.15) 1.70 (1.51, 1.91)
*Note: this is a truncated version for inclusion in the letter only. The manuscript displays a full table.
**Patients could have both a fall and a fracture.
7
Revision:
(METHODS, Sensitivity Analyses, 1st paragraph)
We stratified the patients by sex (male or female) and age group (65 to 74 years, 75 to 84 years, and 85 years or
above) to minimize the effects of sex and age (Supplementary Table 3-1 and 3-2).
(DISCUSSION, Meaning of the study, 2nd paragraph)
From our sensitivity analyses, we identified some groups who might have a higher risk of outcomes at the
baseline. For example, patients with advanced age or male sex had higher risks of falls and fractures.
(Supplementary Table 3-1)
*Note: this is a truncated version for inclusion in the letter only. The manuscript displays a full table.
Comment 5:
"We defined a 14-day pre-exposure period before study drug initiation over concerns about protopathic bias."
This 14-day time period was not justified in the manuscript. Please add the results using at least two other time-
points (21- and 28-day) to check the robustness of the findings.
Thank you for the suggestion. There is no clear evidence from the literature on the exact duration that is adequate
for assessing baseline risk in the pre-exposure period. We assumed 14 days because many elderly patients with
chronic conditions were followed up every two weeks, based on our experience.
To test the assumption, we have added the suggested sensitivity analyses with different lengths of pre-exposure
period (7, 21, and 28 days). Please review the results below and the full version in Supplementary Table 3-10.
Revision:
(METHODS, Sensitivity Analyses, 2nd paragraph)
We further redefined the pre-exposure period to include various lengths of 7, 21 and 28 days to test the adequacy
of a 14-day pre-exposure period in the main analysis (Supplementary Table 3-10).
(RESULTS, Sensitivity Analyses)
Events, n
Follow-up
time,
person-years,
sum
IR (95%CI),
/100 person-years Adjusted IRR (95%CI)
Stratification by sex
Male (n=5,088)
Non-exposure 3,239 40,347.80 8.03 (7.76, 8.31) Reference
Pre-exposure 285 421.32 67.64 (60.13, 75.85) 7.63 (6.73, 8.65)
Cholinesterase inhibitor alone 636 6,354.09 10.01 (9.25, 10.81) 1.18 (1.06, 1.30)
Antipsychotic medication alone 485 3,844.57 12.62 (11.53, 13.78) 1.55 (1.38, 1.75)
Combination 443 3,591.78 12.33 (11.22, 13.52) 1.48 (1.31, 1.67)
Female (n=10,190)
Non-exposure 6,969 82,615.20 8.44 (8.24, 8.64) Reference
Pre-exposure 372 833.58 44.63 (40.26, 49.34) 5.35 (4.80, 5.95)
Cholinesterase inhibitor alone 1,154 12,664.24 9.11 (8.60, 9.65) 1.16 (1.07, 1.25)
Antipsychotic medication alone 868 9,242.88 9.39 (8.78, 10.03) 1.24 (1.13, 1.35)
Combination 827 8,445.56 9.79 (9.14, 10.48) 1.29 (1.18, 1.41)
8
When we redefined multiple lengths of pre-exposure periods as 7, 21 and 28 days, the adjusted IRRs of these pre-
exposure periods were 9.49 (8.64, 10.43), 4.91 (4.56, 5.30) and 4.43 (4.14, 4.75), respectively.
(DISCUSSION, Meaning of the Study, 2nd paragraph)
Furthermore, we have tested various lengths of pre-exposure period from 7 days to 28 days. The IRR was the
highest when the length of the pre-exposure period was defined as 7 days (IRR: 9.49), and it decreased as the
duration of the pre-exposure period lengthened - 14 days (IRR: 6.17), 21 days (IRR: 4.91), and 28 days (IRR: 4.43).
Based on these results, it can be concluded that a 7-day pre-exposure duration probably represents a period of rapid
deterioration. On the other hand, a duration of more than 21 days possibly captures a relatively stable status.
Therefore, our decision to use 14 days appears to be adequate.
(Supplementary Table 3-10)
*Note: this is a truncated version for inclusion in the letter only. The manuscript displays a full table.
Comment 6:
Could you also please add the following information in a separate table (Table 2) as a complementary to Figure 3
(for each row, i.e., for each adjusted IRR estimates in Figure 3a, 3b, and 3c, PLUS the estimates for the non-
exposure period):
Number of patients followed up;
Total, median, and IQR of the follow-up time (with the unite of measurement);
Crude incidence rate and 95% CI (with unit);
Crude incidence rate ratio and 95% CI.
Events, n
Follow-up time,
person-years,
sum
IR (95%CI),
/100 person-years
Adjusted IRR
(95%CI)
Redefine the pre-exposure period to
7 days prior to exposure (n=15,278)
Non-exposure 10,343 123,433.84 8.38 (8.22, 8.54) Reference
Pre-exposure 474 580.21 81.69 (74.58, 89.30) 9.49 (8.64,10.43)
Cholinesterase inhibitor alone 1,827 19,125.99 9.55 (9.12, 10.00) 1.17 (1.10, 1.25)
Antipsychotic medication alone 1,364 13,180.82 10.35 (9.81, 10.91) 1.30 (1.21, 1.39)
Combination 1,270 12,037.35 10.55 (9.98, 11.14) 1.32 (1.23, 1.42)
**Main analysis
14 days prior to exposure (n=15,278)
Non-exposure 10,208 122,963.00 8.30 (8.14, 8.46) Reference
Pre-exposure 657 1,254.90 52.35 (48.46, 56.47) 6.17 (5.69, 6.69)
Cholinesterase inhibitor alone 1,790 19,018.33 9.41 (8.98, 9.86) 1.17 (1.10, 1.24)
Antipsychotic medication alone 1,353 13,087.45 10.34 (9.80, 10.89) 1.33 (1.24, 1.43)
Combination 1,270 12,037.35 10.55 (9.98, 11.14) 1.35 (1.26, 1.45)
Redefine the pre-exposure period to
21 days prior to exposure (n=15,278)
Non-exposure 10,115 122,497.41 8.26 (8.10, 8.42) Reference
Pre-exposure 792 1,924.81 41.15 (38.35, 44.09) 4.91 (4.56, 5.30)
Cholinesterase inhibitor alone 1,759 18,910.18 9.30 (8.88, 9.74) 1.17 (1.10, 1.24)
Antipsychotic medication alone 1,342 12,993.52 10.33 (9.79, 10.89) 1.34 (1.25, 1.44)
Combination 1,270 12,037.35 10.55 (9.98, 11.14) 1.37 (1.27, 1.47)
28 days prior to exposure (n=15,278)
Non-exposure 10,001 122,034.57 8.20 (8.04, 8.36) Reference
Pre-exposure 949 2,591.75 36.62 (34.34, 39.00) 4.43 (4.14, 4.75)
Cholinesterase inhibitor alone 1,736 18,802.14 9.23 (8.81, 9.68) 1.18 (1.11, 1.25)
Antipsychotic medication alone 1,322 12,901.92 10.25 (9.71, 10.81) 1.35 (1.26, 1.45)
Combination 1,270 12,037.35 10.55 (9.98, 11.14) 1.39 (1.29, 1.49)
9
Thank you for the recommendation. We have revised the manuscript accordingly. We have replaced Figure 3 with
a table (Table 2) so as to provide more detailed information. Please review the revision. Thank you very much.
10
Response to reviewers
Reviewer 1: Professor Thomas R. E. Barnes
Overall comment:
This is a succinctly written report of a large case series that has investigated a clinically relevant prescribing issue
in the elderly. The finding of an increased risk of falls/fractures that warranted hospitalisation during periods of
exposure to antipsychotic medication (increase of approximately 40%), cholinesterase inhibitors (approximately
20%), and co-prescription of both (approximately 50%), compared with periods of no such exposure, is
plausible. Less so is the 5-fold increase in risk in the ‘pre-exposure’ period, although it leads the authors to
conclude that the increased risk of falls and fractures is largely the result of assumed ‘underlying’ BPSD, rather
than treatment with these medications and, indeed, they surmise that medications may actually lower the risk. It
would be helpful if the authors could provide reassurance that the analysis and interpretation of the data
adequately addresses putative sources of bias, as follows:
Thank you very much for the supportive comment. We have revised the manuscript accordingly on the basis of
your comments and suggestions. Please review our point-by-point responses below. In addition, we have added
analyses comparing the risk of outcome between the exposed period and the pre-exposure period (Table 2),
where the results support our hypothesis that the targeted medications were associated with a lower risk during
the exposure period. To facilitate your review, we have also summarized the additional sensitivity analyses at the
beginning of this letter.
Comment 1:
Could the high risk of severe falls/fractures in the pre-exposure period be partly a consequence of the eligibility
criteria tending to identify people who had come to the attention of medical services and received a prescription
for antipsychotic medication and/or a cholinesterase inhibitor because of serious falls/fractures?
We appreciate the important question. Yes, it is possible that due to the eligibility criteria (i.e., patients with
neuropsychiatric symptoms of dementia who are exposed to cholinesterase inhibitors and antipsychotic
medications), a high risk of severe falls/fractures was observed in the pre-exposure period.
We consider the risk of falls and fractures may be more attributable to patients’ underlying disease, rather than
caused by medications, because the pre-exposure periods showed much higher risks than the exposure periods.
Nonetheless, we have highlighted the importance of this potential confounding by indication in the revised
manuscript.
Revision:
(DISCUSSION, Principal Findings, 1st paragraph)
From this population-based SCCS, we found that exposures to ChEIs and antipsychotic medications were both
associated with higher risk of falls and fractures compared with the non-exposure period. However, the results
should be interpreted carefully. The 14-day pre-exposure period revealed exceptionally high incidence rates of
falls and fractures, indicating that patients may have already been at a high risk of outcome events before
receiving the medications. The observed higher risks during the exposure periods, as compared with the non-
11
exposure period, may be due to the neuropsychiatric symptoms in addition to the medication use. This implied
that the patients’ condition might not have been fully restored to a steady status, despite receiving treatment.
(DISCUSSION, Principal Findings, 2nd paragraph)
However, the result that the exposure periods were associated with elevated risks of falls and fractures should be
interpreted carefully. Our results showed that patients may have already been at high risk before receiving the
treatment, implying that the interconnection among patients’ underlying conditions, drug effects on relieving
neuropsychiatric symptoms, and side effects of ChEIs and antipsychotic medications has increased the difficulty
of delineating the exact contributing factors and quantifying the magnitude of the risk of falls and fractures that
each factor poses. Similar findings have been reported in previous studies.…. These findings suggested that the
observed higher risks of outcomes during the exposure periods might not be attributable to the medications alone.
Comment 2:
The exposure, non-exposure and pre-exposure periods are of different durations. If this issue is adequately
addressed by the adjustment of the IRRs by one-year bands using regression models, this should be explicit.
Although different lengths of time were used to define the three periods, they remain comparable because the
SCCS was based on the comparison of incidence “rates”; that is, the numbers of cases divided by the observation
duration.
Considering that there might be age-related factors in SCCS, we also broke down the study periods not only by
exposure status but also by one-year intervals, as presented below (for example, the time periods were classified
as 12 different periods). The concept is to compare exposure and non-exposure within the same year, and an
overall estimate incorporating the estimates from each yearly band is generated with Poisson regression model.
This approach helps to control age-related variables in the SCCS, following a suggestion from a previous study
[10]. We have revised the manuscript and made this explicit.
Revision:
(METHODS, Statistical Analysis and Covariates, 2nd paragraph)
Therefore, we adopted a one-year boundary to split the study duration in order to take into account possible age-
related effects when estimating the effects. That is, we partitioned the observation period not only by the
exposure status, but also by one-year intervals (e.g., the first, second and third years etc.) This time-varying
method to adjust for age effects has been described in detail elsewhere [10].
Newly cited reference:
10. Petersen I, Douglas I, Whitaker H. Self-controlled case series methods: an alternative to standard epidemiological study
designs. BMJ. 2016;354:i4515.
Comment 3:
12
The difference in the risk of severe falls/fractures between the pre-exposure period, non-exposure period and
periods on various drug regimens seems to be largely attributed to an interaction between medication effects and
assumed BPSD. But were these periods in different settings for some patients and, if so, could the change in
setting be relevant? For example, could the relatively high risk of falls found during the pre-exposure period be
because patients were more likely to be at home at that time, with trip hazards such as rugs, stairs, walking with
bare feet/in socks, etc., and the risk lower during periods in hospital or other healthcare settings which might
have support rails, walking frames, staff support and other interventions designed to minimise the risk of falls?
Thank you for the insightful comment. Yes, it is possible that different care settings might have different baseline
risks that could influence our analysis. We have incorporated this valuable insight into the discussion section of
the revised manuscript.
In addition, we have also added an analysis by restricting outcomes to only those recorded at outpatient settings
with an effort to better reflect the risks occurred in the community where interventions to prevent falls and
fractures might be insufficient. Please review the results below and the full version in Supplementary Table 3-5.
Revision:
(METHODS, Sensitivity Analyses, 2nd paragraph)
Furthermore, patients in different care settings may have different baseline risks of falls and fractures. To
understand the impact of care settings, we conducted an additional analysis by restricting outcomes to only those
recorded at outpatient settings with an effort to better reflect the risks experienced in the community, where
interventions to prevent falls and fractures might be insufficient (Supplementary Table 3-5).
(DISCUSSION, Strengths and Weaknesses)
Fifth, patients living in different care settings might have different baseline risks to begin with, and this should be
considered in the SCCS. For example, the higher risk of outcomes during the pre-exposure period might be
because the patients were living at home, with more trip hazards from rugs, stairs, and walking. Similarly, the
lower risks during the medication treatment periods could partially be due to the support from healthcare
facilities. To assess the possibility of the care setting effect, we conducted an additional analysis by including
only outcome events recorded at outpatient settings. The results showed that IRRs were smaller after limiting
outcomes to only those occurred in the community, but the risk for the pre-exposure period remained higher than
the non-exposure period.
(Supplementary Table 3-5)
*Note: this is a truncated version for inclusion in the letter only. The manuscript displays a full table.
Events, n
Follow-up time,
person-years,
sum
IR (95%CI),
/100 person-years Adjusted IRR (95%CI)
Restriction to only outcomes at
outpatient settings (n=7,914)
Non-exposure 5,826 64,652.78 9.01 (8.78, 9.25) Reference
Pre-exposure 141 646.13 21.82 (18.44, 25.66) 2.54 (2.14, 3.01)
Cholinesterase inhibitor alone 881 10,012.89 8.80 (8.23, 9.39) 1.09 (1.00, 1.19)
Antipsychotic medication alone 571 6,502.65 8.78 (8.08, 9.52) 1.12 (1.01, 1.25)
Combination 495 6,131.50 8.07 (7.39, 8.81) 1.02 (0.91, 1.13)
13
Comment 4:
Patients experiencing minor falls or related symptoms when starting medication may have tended to discontinue
medication (and it seems that if medication was stopped within 14 days of starting, this does not qualify as an
exposure period) and so the data on the risk of severe falls in the ‘continuous’ exposure periods may tend to refer
to those patients who tolerated the medication well initially.
Thank you for the question. We wish to clarify that once a medication was initiated, the duration up to the day of
discontinuation was included in the computation of the exposure period. That means that even if the medication
was stopped within 14 days of starting, it was still considered as an exposure period.
However, as the comment points out, some patients might discontinue the medications due to minor falls or
related symptoms. As such, those who continue treatment/exposure might represent a group of patients who
tolerate the medication well, and this might affect the evaluation of outcomes. We have highlighted this in the
limitation section of the revised manuscript. In addition, we have also conducted a post-hoc analysis to assess the
discontinuation rate of medications after the event occurrence. Please see below for the results.
Revision:
(DISCUSSION, Strengths and Weaknesses)
Fourth, some patients might have discontinued the medications due to minor falls or related symptoms. This
meant that those who continued the treatment might represented a group of patients who tolerated the
medications well, and thus could have affected the evaluation of the outcomes. Therefore, we performed a post-
hoc analysis to understand the extent of medication discontinuation after a fall or a fracture. We found that only
7.9% of patients discontinued their medications after events; thus, medication discontinuation and its subsequent
impact on outcome evaluation might be limited.
Comment 5-1:
The comparison of risk of falls between FGAs and SGAs refers to a redundant distinction (FGAs and SGAs are
heterogeneous and overlapping in terms of pharmacology and side effect profiles), particularly as only one FGA,
haloperidol, was prescribed. Rather, the paper should refer to the individual antipsychotic medications
prescribed.
Thank you for this comment. We have removed the subgroup analyses for FGAs and SGAs. Alternatively, we
have added the subgroup analyses for individual antipsychotic medications. We selected haloperidol, risperidone,
olanzapine, and quetiapine for the subgroup analyses because they were most commonly used for elderly patients
in Taiwan. Please review the results below and the full version in Supplementary Table 3-11.
(METHODS, Sensitivity Analyses, 3rd paragraph)
Each antipsychotic medication has different affinities to alpha-adrenergic receptors, histamine receptors, and
dopamine receptors, which can lead to varying degrees of effects that possibly provoke falls and fractures, such
as heart rate reduction, vasodilation, orthostatic hypotension, blurred vision, sedation, and EPS [11]. Therefore,
we conducted subgroup analyses to evaluate individual antipsychotic medications separately. We selected
haloperidol, risperidone, olanzapine, and quetiapine for the subgroup analyses because they are the most
commonly used antipsychotic medications for elderly patients in Taiwan (Supplementary Table 3-11).
14
(RESULTS, Sensitivity Analyses)
In the analyses for individual antipsychotic medications, we found that the adjusted IRRs were 3.75 (3.15, 4.47),
1.15 (0.99, 1.35), 1.35 (1.00, 1.82), and 1.16 (1.07, 1.26) under exposure to haloperidol, risperidone, olanzapine,
and quetiapine, respectively.
(DISCUSSION, Meaning of the study, 2nd paragraph)
One of the likely explanations for the higher risk of haloperidol could be due to its greater extrapyramidal side
effects compared with other antipsychotic medications. Confounding by indication could be another explanation
because patients with positive symptoms (e.g., agitation) may be more likely to receive haloperidol.
Newly cited references:
11. UpToDate [Internet]. Second-generation antipsychotic medications: Pharmacology, administration, and side effects; c2020.
Available from: https://www.uptodate.com/contents/second-generation-antipsychotic-medications-pharmacology-
administration-and-side-effects [cited 2020 Jul 27].
(Supplementary Table 3-11)
*Note: this is a truncated version for inclusion in the letter only. The manuscript displays a full table.
Comment 5-2:
It is a pity that, in this elderly group, the investigators did not look at any dosage effect, even if the dosages were
generally within the recommended range.
Thank you very much for the comments. We have added analyses by stratifying cumulative dose of antipsychotic
medications of study patients to evaluate dosage effects. Please review the results below and the full version in
Supplementary Table 3-4.
Events, n
Follow-up
time,
person-years,
sum
IR (95%CI),
/100 person-years Adjusted IRR (95%CI)
Analyses for individual antipsychotic
medication
Haloperidol (n=4,745)
Non-exposure 3,307 40,792.32 8.11 (7.83, 8.39) Reference
Pre-exposure 367 368.10 99.70 (89.89, 110.30) 12.11 (10.84,13.54)
Cholinesterase inhibitor alone 812 8,985.84 9.04 (8.43, 9.67) 1.16 (1.06, 1.27)
Antipsychotic medication alone 166 666.06 24.92 (21.34, 28.94) 3.75 (3.15, 4.47)
Combination 93 340.37 27.32 (22.18, 33.32) 4.26 (3.37, 5.37)
Risperidone (n=5,119)
Non-exposure 3,716 42,362.60 8.72 (8.44, 9.00) Reference
Pre-exposure 98 393.72 24.89 (20.32, 30.20) 2.74 (2.23, 3.35)
Cholinesterase inhibitor alone 886 8,724.17 10.16 (9.50, 10.84) 1.23 (1.13, 1.35)
Antipsychotic medication alone 209 2,132.31 9.80 (8.54, 11.20) 1.15 (0.99, 1.35)
Combination 210 1,907.57 11.01 (9.59, 12.58) 1.32 (1.13, 1.54)
Olanzapine (n=1,314)
Non-exposure 946 11,324.34 8.35 (7.83, 8.90) Reference
Pre-exposure 30 97.09 30.90 (21.23, 43.55) 3.72 (2.57, 5.37)
Cholinesterase inhibitor alone 217 2,167.76 10.01 (8.74, 11.41) 1.31 (1.09, 1.56)
Antipsychotic medication alone 59 569.52 10.36 (7.96, 13.27) 1.35 (1.00, 1.82)
Combination 62 469.79 13.20 (10.21, 16.81) 1.77 (1.31, 2.39)
Quetiapine (n=12,851)
Non-exposure 8,769 104,168.20 8.42 (8.24, 8.60) Reference
Pre-exposure 481 1,013.41 47.46 (43.36, 51.85) 5.40 (4.91, 5.93)
Cholinesterase inhibitor alone 1,635 16,682.60 9.80 (9.33, 10.28) 1.18 (1.11, 1.26)
Antipsychotic medication alone 1,002 10,353.62 9.68 (9.09, 10.29) 1.16 (1.07, 1.26)
Combination 964 9,884.87 9.75 (9.15, 10.38) 1.16 (1.07, 1.26)
15
Revision:
(METHODS, Sensitivity Analyses, 1st paragraph)
To examine the dosage effect, we stratified the study population based on their cumulative doses of antipsychotic
medications (above or below the median) using the ratio of prescribed daily dose (PDD) to defined daily dose
(DDD) (Supplementary Table 3-4).
(METHODS, Statistical Analysis and Covariates, 1st paragraph)
PDD is calculated as the sum of actual doses of each medication, while DDD is a standard unit widely applied
for the crosswalk of drugs with different strengths, developed by the World Health Organization [12]. It is an
assumed average maintenance dose per day for each medication.
(RESULTS Sensitivity Analysis)
The adjusted IRRs of the pre-exposure period were 5.73 (4.54, 7.24) and 5.45 (4.54, 6.53) among patients who
had higher and lower cumulative doses of antipsychotic medications, respectively.
(DISCUSSION, Strengths and Weaknesses)
Lastly, our study did not evaluate the dose-response relationship between the drugs and the risk of falls and
fractures. However, we did compare the dosages of antipsychotic medications from our study population with
those reported in guidelines and previous studies, and the dosages were within the suggested ranges [13-15].
Moreover, the stratification analysis by PDD/DDD ratio indicated the dosages of antipsychotic medications did
not have a differential impact on the risks of falls and fractures.
Newly cited references:
12. Leucht S, Samara M, Heres S, Davis JM. Dose equivalents for antipsychotic drugs: the DDD method. Schizophrenia bulletin.
2016;42(suppl_1):S90-S4.
13. Masopust J, Protopopová D, Vališ M, Pavelek Z, Klímová B. Treatment of behavioral and psychological symptoms of
dementias with psychopharmaceuticals: a review. Neuropsychiatric disease and treatment. 2018;14:1211.
14. Haw C, Yorston G, Stubbs J. Guidelines on antipsychotics for dementia: are we losing our minds? Psychiatric Bulletin.
2009;33(2):57-60.
15. Lin Y-T, Hwang T-J, Shan J-C, Chiang H-L, Sheu Y-H, Hwu H-G. Dosage and duration of antipsychotic treatment in
demented outpatients with agitation or psychosis. Journal of the Formosan Medical Association. 2015;114(2):147-53.
(Supplementary Table 3-4)
Events, n
Follow-up
time,
person-years,
sum
IR (95%CI),
/100 person-years
Adjusted IRR
(95%CI)
Stratification by cumulative dose of
antipsychotic medications by PDD/DDD ratio
Higher than the median value (n=3,232)
Non-exposure 855 21,593.70 3.96 (3.70, 4.23) Reference
Pre-exposure 78 279.17 27.94 (22.24, 34.68) 5.73 (4.54, 7.24)
Cholinesterase inhibitor alone 386 3,575.33 10.80 (9.76, 11.91) 2.04 (1.77, 2.35)
Antipsychotic medication alone 938 5,222.99 17.96 (16.84, 19.14) 3.80 (3.38, 4.27)
Combination 975 4,295.59 22.70 (21.31, 24.16) 5.38 (4.79, 6.05)
Equal to or lower than the median value
(n=3,247)
Non-exposure 1,818 27,044.47 6.72 (6.41, 7.04) Reference
Pre-exposure 129 285.56 45.17 (37.87, 53.49) 5.45 (4.54, 6.53)
Cholinesterase inhibitor alone 590 4,464.33 13.22 (12.18, 14.31) 1.66 (1.48, 1.87)
Antipsychotic medication alone 415 2,041.81 20.33 (18.44, 22.35) 2.91 (2.54, 3.33)
Combination 295 1,797.32 16.41 (14.62, 18.37) 2.12 (1.82, 2.47)
16
*Note: this is a truncated version for inclusion in the letter only. The manuscript displays a full table.
Comment 6:
It seems that the investigators had information on all the medication prescribed for the people in the study, so the
cumulative anticholinergic burden of the full medication regimen for each of the individual patients would be
calculable from the data collected. Given that anticholinergic effects in the elderly include an increased
likelihood of falls as well as an adverse effect on cognitive function, an analysis of whether there was an
association between anticholinergic burden and falls/fractures would be worthwhile.
Thank you very much for the suggestion. To address the issue, we have added sensitivity analyses stratifying the
study population by patients’ anticholinergic drug scale (ADS), which is a widely used measure for
anticholinergic burden. The results remained consistent to the main analysis. Please review the results below and
the full version in Supplementary Table 3-3.
Revision:
(METHODS, Statistical Analysis and Covariates, 1st paragraph)
We also evaluated patients’ characteristics when the outcome event occurred, including their age on the event
date, settings of the event being diagnosed, mortality after the event, type of exposure, anticholinergic burden
measured by the anticholinergic drug scale (ADS), and the ratio of prescribed daily dose to defined daily dose
(PDD/DDD ratio) for ChEIs and antipsychotic medications (Table 1). ADS is a widely used measure developed
through expert opinions, and it is a four-point scale ranging from 0 to 3 for no-known activity to high
anticholinergic activity [16].
(METHODS, Sensitivity Analyses, 1st paragraph)
Anticholinergic burden (i.e., the cumulative effect of taking multiple medications with anticholinergic activities)
is a critical issue that may also be associated with falls and fractures in the elderly [17]. High anticholinergic
burden has been reported to adversely affect cognitive and physical functions, and may also increase the risk of
falls, hospitalization, and death [18-21]. To account for the potential impact, we included the anticholinergic drug
scale (ADS) to classify patients by their anticholinergic burden for the sensitivity analyses (Supplementary Table
3-3).
(RESULTS, Sensitivity Analyses)
The adjusted IRRs of the pre-exposure period were 5.30 (4.74, 5.94) and 7.41 (6.60, 8.33) among patients with
an ADS of 0 to 1 and 2 or above points, respectively.
(DISCUSSION, Meaning of the study, 2nd paragraph)
Consistent with previous studies that anticholinergic effect in the elderly increases the likelihood of falls and
cognitive deterioration [22-23], we observed much higher risks during the pre-exposure period in patients with
higher anticholinergic burden.
Newly cited references:
16. Carnahan RM, Lund BC, Perry PJ, Pollock BG, Culp KR. The anticholinergic drug scale as a measure of drug‐related
anticholinergic burden: associations with serum anticholinergic activity. The Journal of Clinical Pharmacology.
2006;46(12):1481-6.
17. Salahudeen MS, Duffull SB, Nishtala PS. Anticholinergic burden quantified by anticholinergic risk scales and adverse
outcomes in older people: a systematic review. BMC geriatrics. 2015;15(1):1-14.
17
18. Tune LE. Anticholinergic effects of medication in elderly patients. The Journal of clinical psychiatry. 2001;62(suppl 21):11-4.
19. Lowry E, Woodman RJ, Soiza RL, Mangoni AA. Associations between the anticholinergic risk scale score and physical
function: potential implications for adverse outcomes in older hospitalized patients. Journal of the American Medical
Directors Association. 2011;12(8):565-72.
20. Uusvaara J, Pitkala KH, Kautiainen H, Tilvis RS, Strandberg TE. Association of anticholinergic drugs with hospitalization
and mortality among older cardiovascular patients. Drugs & aging. 2011;28(2):131-8.
21. Cao YJ, Mager D, Simonsick E, Hilmer S, Ling S, Windham B, et al. Physical and cognitive performance and burden of
anticholinergics, sedatives, and ACE inhibitors in older women. Clinical Pharmacology & Therapeutics. 2008;83(3):422-9.
22. Green AR, Reifler LM, Bayliss EA, Weffald LA, Boyd CM. Drugs Contributing to Anticholinergic Burden and Risk of Fall or
Fall-Related Injury among Older Adults with Mild Cognitive Impairment, Dementia and Multiple Chronic Conditions: A
Retrospective Cohort Study. Drugs Aging. 2019;36(3):289-97.
23. Wilson NM, Hilmer SN, March LM, Cameron ID, Lord SR, Seibel MJ, et al. Associations between drug burden index and
falls in older people in residential aged care. J Am Geriatr Soc. 2011;59(5):875-80.
(Supplementary Table 3-3)
*Note: this is a truncated version for inclusion in the letter only. The manuscript displays a full table.
Comment 7:
Lastly, for several reasons, perhaps ‘antipsychotic medication’ could be substituted for ‘antipsychotics’
throughout the paper. Further, the subheading ‘Principle findings’ at the beginning of the Discussion section,
should be ‘Principal findings’.
Thank you very much, we have revised these terms accordingly. We appreciate your constructive suggestions,
which have helped substantially to improve our manuscript.
Events, n
Follow-up
time,
person-years,
sum
IR (95%CI),
/100 person-years
Adjusted IRR
(95%CI)
Stratification by anticholinergic burden indicator
Anticholinergic drug scale 2+ (n= 6,579)
Non-exposure 4,008 51,202.55 7.83 (7.59, 8.07) Reference
Pre-exposure 326 546.27 59.68 (53.46, 66.43) 7.41 (6.60, 8.33)
Cholinesterase inhibitor alone 828 8,133.35 10.18 (9.51, 10.89) 1.35 (1.24, 1.48)
Antipsychotic medication alone 745 6,076.65 12.26 (11.40, 13.16) 1.76 (1.60, 1.95)
Combination 672 5,664.66 11.86 (10.99, 12.79) 1.67 (1.51, 1.85)
Anticholinergic drug scale 0-1 (n=8,699)
Non-exposure 6,200 71,760.45 8.64 (8.43, 8.86) Reference
Pre-exposure 331 708.62 46.71 (41.88, 51.95) 5.30 (4.74, 5.94)
Cholinesterase inhibitor alone 962 10,884.98 8.84 (8.29, 9.41) 1.05 (0.96, 1.13)
Antipsychotic medication alone 608 7,010.80 8.67 (8.00, 9.38) 1.02 (0.93, 1.13)
Combination 598 6,372.69 9.38 (8.65, 10.16) 1.11 (1.01, 1.23)
18
Reviewer 2: Dr. Rónán O'Caoimh
Overall comment:
This study, utilising a self-controlled case series design, examines whether confounding by indication may
explain the apparent association between psychotropic medications (anti-psychotics and Acetylcholinesterase
inhibitors - ChEIs) and falls/fractures in PwD. The authors suggest that BSPD and other ‘unstable mental and
cognitive conditions’ rather than these medications could account for increased risk of falls/fractures in people
with dementia. This is based on a higher adjusted IRR for these outcomes before compared with after exposure to
these medications. In addition, the results suggest that falls overall (injurious and non-injurious) were not
significantly associated with the prescription of ChEIs or antipsychotics (all types) but that falls resulting in
fractures and hospitalisations were associated these medications, albeit not as strongly as the risk during the pre-
exposure period.
The paper is generally well-written and a self-controlled case series is an appropriate design to investigate
this question in a clearly defined and apparently robust dataset. I suspect the findings are indeed as a result of
reverse causality and also an element of confounding by indication (more severe dementia and/or the effects of
higher doses of antipsychotics – neither of which were available in the study). The likelihood that this is the case
is a more plausible explanation than the theory that these medications somehow mitigate falls in PwD and should
be more explicitly stated in the discussion section. A few comments and some major and minor points to note and
address:
Thank you for the critical comment. We have revised the manuscript based on the comments; specifically, we
have explicitly expressed the possible explanation our findings in the discussion section (please refer to the
comments #19 to #27). Our point-by-point responses to further comments are provided below. We have also
summarized all additional sensitivity analyses at the beginning of this letter.
Comment 1: Abstract
As with the paper, it is generally well-written and clear. I suggest providing more information on the patients
who were included in this study within the abstract. Apart from being aged 65 and older, readers would be
unclear whether they have mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or dementia, and if they have dementia, how this
was diagnosed/confirmed – given that these are registry data, where diagnosis can be variable, more clarity
would provide readers with context.
Thank you for the suggestion. All users of cholinesterase inhibitors were reviewed by neurologists or
psychiatrists based on Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score and the reimbursement guidelines of
Taiwan’s National Health Insurance program. We have confirmed the diagnosis of dementia by using the records
of drug prescriptions. We have added more information about this in the revised abstract to avoid confusion.
Revision:
(ABSTRACT, Participants)
We included older adults (aged 65 or older) who were newly prescribed with antipsychotic medications and
ChEIs and suffered an incident fall or fracture from outpatient, inpatient, emergency room, and contracted
pharmacy records. The diagnosis of major NCD was determined from the prescriptions of ChEIs and was
19
reviewed by experts based on the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score and the reimbursement
guidelines of Taiwan’s National Health Insurance program.
Comment 2: Abstract
In the conclusion, I suggest avoiding statements such as “The use of ChEIs and antipsychotics may in fact
mitigate the risk”. This is not clearly the case and while future studies could examine such a hypothesis, this
study only found a relatively lower risk after exposure and not for all falls but for more serious events i.e.
fractures and injurious falls leading to hospitalisation, which could be due to other causes (see my comment
below in the discussion). I agree that this should be mentioned and debated in the discussion section but it is not
the main conclusion to be drawn from the study.
Thank you for the suggestion. We have revised the conclusion of the abstract and have removed “The use of
ChEIs and antipsychotics may in fact mitigate the risk” from the abstract as you suggested.
Revision:
(ABSTRACT, Conclusion)
The incidence of falls and fractures was especially high in the pre-exposure period, suggesting that some factors
other than the medications, such as underlying diseases, should be taken into consideration when evaluating the
association between the risk of falls and fractures, and the use of ChEIs and antipsychotic medications. The
exposure periods were also associated with higher risk of falls and fractures compared with the non-exposure
period, although the magnitude was much lower than during the pre-exposure period. Prevention strategies and
close monitoring of risk of falls are still necessary until there is evidence that patients have restored to a steady
status.
Comment 3: Introduction
I would avoid the term ‘anti-dementia’ medications and describe ChEIs as cognitive enhancers or use a similar
term. They treat symptoms but are not as per se ‘anti-dementia’ drugs which implies a preventative or curative
function.
Thank you very much for the suggestion. We have replaced “anti-dementia medications” with “cognitive
enhancers” throughout our paper accordingly.
Comment 4: Introduction
In the second paragraph (and in the abstract), it is a little unclear what the authors mean by concerns over
‘protopathic bias’. This should define bias resulting when treatment itself (usually initiated in response to the
very first symptoms/signs of the disease) subsequently causes the outcome of interest i.e. reverse causation. Here,
there is concern that the development of BPSD led to the prescription of medications that increased the risk of
subsequent falls, rather than concern that the first signs of falling led to the prescription of medication. The text
should be more explicit.
Thank you very much for the important comment. We have revised the manuscript accordingly.
Revision:
20
(ABSTRACT, Main outcome measures)
Moreover, we defined a 14-day pre-exposure period before study drug initiation over concerns about
confounding by indication.
(INTRODUCTION, 2nd Paragraph)
Although several studies and guidelines have suggested that the use of ChEIs and antipsychotic medications may
be associated with the risk of falls and fractures, some previous studies have drawn divergent
conclusions….Confounding by indication may partly explain the conflicting results from these studies. For
example, patients with neuropsychiatric symptoms of major NCD may manifest with depression, irritability,
agitation, and hallucinations that could lead to prescription of antipsychotic medications, and both the symptoms
and the treatments could increase the risk of subsequent falls and fractures. This confounding effect is especially
likely when the events are observed within a short period of time right before patients initiate a treatment in
response to the neuropsychiatric symptoms of major NCD. However, only few studies have addressed this issue
while evaluating the association between ChEIs, antipsychotic medications, and the risk of falls and fractures
[24-25].
Newly cited references:
24. Pratt N, Roughead EE, Ramsay E, Salter A, Ryan P. Risk of hospitalization for hip fracture and pneumonia associated with
antipsychotic prescribing in the elderly. Drug safety. 2011;34(7):567-75.
25. Brännström J, Lövheim H, Gustafson Y, Nordström P. Antipsychotic Drugs and Hip Fracture: Associations Before and After
the Initiation of Treatment. Journal of the American Medical Directors Association. 2020;21(11):1636-42. e6.
Comment 5: Introduction
There are a few minor grammatical and syntax errors throughout the introduction and the rest of the paper. I have
just highlighted a few here but the paper should be reviewed for these e.g. P4, line 40 “With the advent of aging
society,”, line 43-44 “family caregivers may request antipsychotics to control the BPSD in patients.” and on P5
line 27 “The study period for this study was from” and line 51”no matter measured or unmeasured”.
Thank you for the correction. We have enlisted professional English editing services to ensure there is no typo or
grammatical and syntax error.
Comment 6: Introduction
In the 3rd paragraph, specify why antipsychotics are not recommended by the FDA and hence what is meant by
“unintended outcomes” in the same paragraph, Line 46-47.
Thank you for the question. We have revised the manuscript to make it more explicit.
Revision:
(INTRODUCTION, 1st paragraph)
Due to potential adverse effects of antipsychotic medications, including orthostatic hypotension, sedation, blurred
vision and extrapyramidal symptoms (EPS), the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has suggested that a
complete assessment of the risk of falls be undertaken before initiating treatment [26].
(INTRODUCTION, 3rd paragraph)
Even though the use of antipsychotic medications may be associated with falls and fractures, as reported by the
FDA and the Beers Criteria, clinicians and family caregivers may still prescribe antipsychotic medications to
21
control neuropsychiatric symptoms in patients with major NCD. Therefore, understanding the risk profiles of
patients receiving ChEIs and antipsychotic medications has become increasingly important to prevent the
occurrence of falls and fractures.
Newly cited references:
26. UpToDate [Internet]. Second-generation antipsychotic medications: Pharmacology, administration, and side effects; c2020.
Available from: https://www.uptodate.com/contents/second-generation-antipsychotic-medications-pharmacology-
administration-and-side-effects [cited 2020 Jul 27].
Comment 7: Methods
While it is implied that it is reliable/accurate, how precise is the National Health Insurance Database in providing
exact dates of outcomes (falls/fractures) and prescriptions?
Thank you for the critical questions. We have the exact dates of the prescriptions for both inpatient and outpatient
claims. However, for those who had falls or fractures during hospitalization, the outcome date may be a few days
or weeks later than the actual date of event occurrence because the diagnoses may only have been registered at
release from inpatient care. We may thus have underestimated the risk during exposure period for those who had
falls or fractures during hospitalization and then discontinued the medication (the event was misclassified to non-
exposure period). We have addressed this issue in the revised manuscript.
Revision:
(DISCUSSION, Strengths and Weaknesses)
Seventh, we did not have the exact outcome dates for those who had falls or fractures during hospitalization
because the diagnoses were registered at the discharge date, and thus the outcome dates we analysed may have
been later than the dates of actual event occurrences. Therefore, we may have underestimated the risk during the
exposure period for those who had falls or fractures during hospitalization and then discontinued the medications.
Comment 8: Methods
In Fig 1 or in the text, I cannot find details on the proportions excluded because of psychotic disorders or
depression. Please included.
Thank you for the comment. We have revised the flowchart and added the reasons for each exclusion. Please
review the revised Figure 1.
Revision:
(METHODS, Study population)
We excluded patients with a record of antipsychotic medications or ChEIs, or an episode of fall or fracture from
2003 to 2005 (washout period) to ensure that the whole study population consisted of incident drug users without
a history of falls or fractures. We also excluded patients with underlying schizophrenia and bipolar disorder to
ensure that antipsychotic medications were used to treat the neuropsychiatric symptoms of major NCD.
(Figure 1: Selection flowchart of the study population)
22
Comment 9: Methods
While I appreciate the reasons to exclude those with pre-existing indications for an antipsychotic, I am unclear as
to why the authors excluded patients with depression. How was depression defined in this case – as a previous
episode of psychotic depression requiring an antipsychotic or any diagnosis of depression, even mild? There is a
marked difference between these. I am unclear how a diagnosis of mild depression in a patient with dementia
could confound the results in this study design? Depression is a very common symptom associated with dementia
and the relationship is complex. Falls and depression also have a complex relationship. However, a self-
controlled case series because such time invariant factors are cancelled out should be a suitable approach to
analyse such data. This is a limitation and it would be worthwhile examining if the inclusion of those with
depression (disregarding those with previous psychotic depression for example), would influence the results of
the study. It is an important sub-analysis.
We appreciate the important question. We defined depression by the records of diagnosis (ICD-9: 296.2, 296.3,
300.4, 311; ICD-10: F32, F33, F341) during the study periods. Yes, we do agree with you about the complex
relationship between depression, dementia, and falls. Therefore, we have re-run the analysis including individuals
with depression. Moreover, we have conducted sensitivity analyses after stratifying patients by depression to
examine the impact of depression on our results. These results were consistent with the main analysis. Please
review the results below and the full version in Supplementary Table 3-6.
Revision:
(METHODS, Study Population)
We also excluded patients with underlying schizophrenia and bipolar disorder to ensure that antipsychotic
medications were used to treat the neuropsychiatric symptoms of major NCD. The study selection flowchart is
presented in Figure 1.
(Figure 1: Selection flowchart of the study population)
23
(Supplementary Table 3-6)
*Note: this is a truncated version for inclusion in the letter only. The manuscript displays a full table.
Comment 10: Methods
Table 1 provides a great deal of information on the participants, which is welcome. However, much more detail is
required about the diagnosis of dementia itself and how that is made in the National Health Insurance Database.
As said above, how it is diagnosed/what classification and the proportion subtypes of dementia etc. should be
provided. I see in the limitations section that stage/grade of dementia was not available but surely there is some
data on the diagnosis and how it is defined in the dataset.
Thank you for the question. As mentioned in Comment #1, we identified the diagnosis of dementia based on
prescriptions of cholinesterase inhibitors that could only be prescribed after review by licensed neurologists or
psychiatrists. We have also provided information regarding the subtypes of dementia using diagnosis codes that
have been adopted by previous studies in Taiwan [26-27]. Please review Supplementary Table 1 for the ICD
codes.
Revision:
Events, n
Follow-up
time,
person-years,
sum
IR (95%CI),
/100 person-years
Adjusted IRR
(95%CI)
Patients comorbid with depression
(n=4,743)
Non-exposure 3,321 38,500.25 8.63 (8.34, 8.92) Reference Pre-exposure 144 399.33 36.06 (30.52, 42.32) 4.13 (3.49, 4.90) Cholinesterase inhibitor alone 435 5,049.01 8.62 (7.83, 9.45) 1.03 (0.91, 1.16) Antipsychotic medication alone 465 5,029.55 9.25 (8.43, 10.11) 1.12 (1.00, 1.27) Combination 378 4,287.04 8.82 (7.96, 9.74) 1.06 (0.93, 1.20)
Patients without depression (n=11,048) Non-exposure 7,220 88,370.49 8.17 (7.98, 8.36) Reference Pre-exposure 526 900.25 58.43 (53.59, 63.58) 6.95 (6.34, 7.61) Cholinesterase inhibitor alone 1,394 14,388.04 9.69 (9.19, 10.21) 1.22 (1.14, 1.31) Antipsychotic medication alone 970 8,911.60 10.88 (10.22, 11.59) 1.43 (1.32, 1.56) Combination 938 8,280.68 11.33 (10.62, 12.07) 1.48 (1.37, 1.61)
24
(METHODS, Statistical Analysis and Covariates, 1st paragraph)
Patient baseline characteristics were assessed based on the covariates extracted from within one year before 1st
Jan 2006, including age, sex, subtype of major NCD, comorbidities, and co-medications (Table 1). Subtypes of
major NCD included Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson’s dementia, vascular dementia, mixed type (i.e., those who
had been diagnosed with more than one subtype of major NCD), others or unspecified [26-27]. The subtypes of
major NCD and comorbidities were defined using ICD codes listed in Supplementary Table 1.
(RESULTS, Patient Characteristics at Baseline)
We identified 15,278 patients eligible for the SCCS (Figure 1), with a mean age at baseline of 74.5 (SD: 5.5)
years, of whom 66.7% were female. Although all diagnoses of major NCD had been reviewed by licensed
neurologists or psychiatrists, most of the study populations were recorded as the unspecified major NCD
(69.2%).
Newly cited reference:
27. Lin, Pei-Chao, et al. "Prevalence of pain-related diagnoses in patients with dementia: a nationwide study." Journal of pain
research 11 (2018): 1589.
28. Wang, Hao-Kuang, et al. "Increased risk of hip fractures in patients with dementia: a nationwide population-based study."
BMC neurology 14.1 (2014): 1-8.
Comment 11: Methods
P5 line 46 typo “We applied theself-controlled ”.
Thank you. We have corrected the typo.
Comment 12: Methods
The authors should provide the ICD codes used in an appendix/supplemental file.
Thank you for the recommendation. We have provided the ICD codes in Supplementary Table 1.
Comment 13: Methods
Define FGA or SGA where they are first used – P6 line 20.
Thank you for the recommendation. Following a reviewer’s suggestion to remove the classifications of “FGA”
and “SGA” (Prof Thomas R. E. Barnes, Reviewer 1, Comment 5-1) due to their heterogeneous and overlapping
pharmacologic features, we have revised the analyses accordingly and no longer include groupings by “FGA”
and “SGA” in the analysis. Instead, we have conducted the analyses by the individual medications.
Comment 14: Methods
The authors mention a 14-day period in the abstract – the “pre- exposure period before study drug initiation over
concerns about protopathic bias.”. I presume this relates to the pre-exposure category in the ‘Outcome Events and
Exposure periods’ subsection – this should be specified in the text as it is not clearly mentioned again after
appearing in the abstract and should be described in the methods.
Thank you for the recommendation. We have added the definition and the reason for including the pre-exposure
period in our manuscript. And as you suggested in Comment 4, we have replaced “protopathic bias” with
“confounding by indication” (The neuropsychiatric symptoms could lead to prescription of medications and also
increased risk of subsequent falls and fractures.) Please review the revised statement:
25
Revision:
(METHODS, Outcome Events and Exposure periods)
We classified the study time into five discrete periods: 1) 14-day pre-exposure period prior to the exposure to
drugs, 2) exposure to ChEIs alone, 3) exposure to antipsychotic medications alone, 4) exposure to a combination
of ChEIs and antipsychotic medications, and 5) non-exposure when neither ChEIs nor antipsychotic medications
were given. The 14-day pre-exposure period was designed to evaluate the increased incidence of falls and
fractures due to neuropsychiatric symptoms of major NCD before the initiation of medications, and to benchmark
the risk magnitude during the exposure periods.
Comment 15: Methods
Describe why the PDD/DDD ratio was considered important to evaluate. Define DDD and the ratio. This will not
be familiar to all readers of the BMJ.
Thank you for the recommendation. The PDD/DDD was used for the crosswalk of dosages of drugs with
different strengths, using a standardized unit developed by the World Health Organization. We have added the
definition of the PDD/DDD ratio and also have specified the reason in the revised manuscript.
Revision:
(METHODS, Statistical Analysis and Covariates, 1st paragraph)
We also evaluated patients’ characteristics when the outcome event occurred, including their age on the event
date, settings of the event being diagnosed, mortality after the event, type of exposure, anticholinergic burden
measured by the anticholinergic drug scale (ADS), and the ratio of prescribed daily dose to defined daily dose
(PDD/DDD ratio) for ChEIs and antipsychotic medications (Table 1).…. PDD is calculated as the sum of actual
doses of each medication, while DDD is a standard unit widely applied for the crosswalk of drugs with different
strengths, developed by the World Health Organization [29]. It is an assumed average maintenance dose per day
for each medication.
Newly cited reference:
29. Leucht S, Samara M, Heres S, Davis JM. Dose equivalents for antipsychotic drugs: the DDD method. Schizophrenia bulletin.
2016;42(suppl_1):S90-S4.
Comment 16-1: Results
Avoid the term ‘slightly’ – I presume from the CIs that these were statistically significant differences – is that
correct?
Thank you for the recommendation. We have removed ‘slightly’ from the revised manuscript.
Comment 16-2: Results
From Fig. 3, “all” falls (injurious and non-injurious) were not significantly associated with all antipsychotics but
falls that resulted in fractures and hospitalisations were (i.e. injurious). If so, this should be made clear and then
discussed.
26
Thank you very much for the recommendation. In the previous version, we found the IRR of falls for
antipsychotics was 1.33 (95% CIs: 0.84, 2.10). Unfortunately, we believe the likely reason for the non-
significance is the limited case number (n=302).
We have revised the selection criteria for study patients (i.e., without excluding those with depression) as
suggested in Comment 9. The case numbers have thus increased (n=766) and the updated IRR of falls under
antipsychotics is 1.36 (95% CIs: 1.02, 1.82), which reaches statistical significance.
Comment 17: Results
Clarify what is meant by ‘No interaction with ChEIs was found for antipsychotics, FGAs, or SGAs’. The method
and rationale for analysing this is poorly described in the statistics section in the methods.
Thank you for the clarification question. At first we hypothesized that the combined use of ChEIs and
antipsychotic medications may have synergistic effects that greatly increase the risk of falls and fractures. We
therefore examined the statistical interaction in the regression model, and the results showed that there was no
such synergistic effect. We agree that interaction is a further topic requiring deeper rationale before analysing. To
avoid confusion, we have removed the interaction part from the revised manuscript.
Comment 18: Results
There are some important findings in the tables and figures, Fig 3 in particular, that should be mentioned in more
detail in the results sections, which is overly concise/brief.
Thank you for the suggestion. We have added more detailed description specifically for Figure 3 in the results
section. Moreover, we have replaced Figure 3 with a table (Table 2) so as to provide more detailed information,
as shown below.
Revision:
(RESULTS, Evaluation of the Risk of Falls and Fractures)
Compared with the non-exposure period, the risk of falls and fractures was higher under exposure to ChEIs alone
(adjusted IRR; 95% CI: 1.17; 1.10 to 1.24; E-value 1.62), antipsychotic medications alone (1.33; 1.24 to 1.43; E-
value 1.99), and combinations (1.35; 1.26 to 1.45; E-value 2.04). The risk was even higher during the pre-
exposure period (6.17; 5.69 to 6.69; E-value 11.82) compared with the non-exposure period. In the analysis of
falls, the adjusted IRRs were 0.91 (0.71, 1.18), 1.36 (1.02, 1.93), 1.36 (1.02, 1.82) and 10.39 (8.08, 13.37) for the
exposure to ChEIs alone, antipsychotic medications alone, combination, and the pre-exposure period,
respectively. In the analysis of fractures, the adjusted IRRs were 1.18 (1.11, 1.26), 1.34 (1.24, 1.43), 1.35 (1.25,
1.45) and 6.11 (5.62, 6.63) for the exposure to ChEIs alone, antipsychotic medications alone, combinations, and
pre-exposure period, respectively. We included 7,364 cases with hospitalized falls or fractures, and the results
were also consistent with the main analysis (Table 2).
(Table 2)
Events, n
Follow-up time,
person-years,
sum
IR (95%CI),
/100 person-years
Adjusted IRR
(95%CI),
All events (n=15,278)
Non-exposure 10,208 122,963.00 8.30 (8.14, 8.46) Reference
Pre-exposure 657 1,254.90 52.35 (48.46, 56.47) 6.17 (5.69, 6.69)
27
Cholinesterase inhibitor alone 1,790 19,018.33 9.41 (8.98, 9.86) 1.17 (1.10, 1.24)
Antipsychotic medication alone 1,353 13,087.45 10.34 (9.80, 10.89) 1.33 (1.24, 1.43)
Combination 1,270 12,037.35 10.55 (9.98, 11.14) 1.35 (1.26, 1.45)
Falls (n=766)
Non-exposure 341 6,750.84 5.05 (4.54, 5.61) Reference
Pre-exposure 84 62.84 134.70 (107.30, 164.70) 10.39 (8.08,13.37)
Cholinesterase inhibitor alone 120 968.87 12.39 (10.31, 14.76) 0.91 (0.71, 1.18)
Antipsychotic medication alone 107 554.99 19.28 (15.88, 23.20) 1.36 (1.02, 1.82)
Combination 114 518.55 21.98 (18.22, 26.31) 1.55 (1.17, 2.05)
Fractures (n=14,874)
Non-exposure 9,998 119,543.18 8.36 (8.20, 8.53) Reference
Pre-exposure 627 1,222.01 51.31 (47.41, 55.45) 6.11 (5.62, 6.63)
Cholinesterase inhibitor alone 1,735 18,491.49 9.16 (8.74, 9.60) 1.18 (1.11, 1.26)
Antipsychotic medication alone 1,299 12,764.29 10.18 (9.64, 10.74) 1.34 (1.24, 1.43)
Combination 1,215 11,759.94 10.33 (9.76, 10.93) 1.35 (1.25, 1.45)
Hospitalized events (n=7,364)
Non-exposure 4,382 58,310.22 7.51 (7.30, 7.74) Reference
Pre-exposure 516 608.77 84.76 (77.68, 92.32) 10.20 (9.28,11.21)
Cholinesterase inhibitor alone 909 9,005.44 10.09 (9.45, 10.77) 1.27 (1.17, 1.39)
Antipsychotic medication alone 782 6,584.79 11.88 (11.07, 12.73) 1.55 (1.41, 1.71)
Combination 775 5,905.85 13.12 (12.22, 14.07) 1.73 (1.57, 1.90)
*Note: this is a truncated version for inclusion in the letter only. The manuscript displays a full table.
Comment 19: Discussion
In the discussion, the authors suggest again that BPSD may have led to the falls rather than the medications to
treat them (or cognitive enhancers). I would avoid the term ‘very likely’ as causation has not been proven i.e. it is
not clear that the BPSD caused the falls (nor cognition in the case of ChEIs), only that these medications have
less impact/play a smaller role than has been suggested in other studies. Comparison with these studies here
would provide context and contrast.
Thank you very much for the comment. We have revised the manuscript and removed “very likely” from the
sentence. We agree that the observed risks could possibly result from BPSD, medications, or both. We have
revised the manuscript and highlighted these points. Moreover, we have also compared our study with previous
studies as suggested, and added a new paragraph with more details in the discussion section. Please review our
revisions.
Revision:
(DISCUSSION, Principal findings, 1st paragraph)
From this population-based SCCS, we found that exposures to ChEIs and antipsychotic medications were both
associated with higher risk of falls and fractures compared with the non-exposure period. However, the results
should be interpreted carefully. The 14-day pre-exposure period revealed exceptionally high incidence rates of
falls and fractures, indicating that patients may have already been at a high risk of outcome events before
receiving the medications. The observed higher risks during the exposure periods, as compared with the non-
exposure period, may be due to the neuropsychiatric symptoms in addition to the medication use. This implied
that the patients’ condition might not have been fully restored to a steady status, despite receiving treatment.
(DISCUSSION, Principal findings, 2nd paragraph)
Previous studies have reported that both ChEIs and antipsychotic medications were associated with falls and
fractures, with the magnitude of risk increasing up to 18% [29] to 63% [30] among patients receiving ChEIs, and
up to 21% [31] to 54% [32] among patients receiving antipsychotic medications. Consistent with these previous
28
studies, our findings suggest that compared with the non-exposure period, exposures to ChEIs and antipsychotic
medications led to a 17% and 33% increase, respectively, in the risk of falls and fractures. However, the result
that the exposure periods were associated with elevated risks of falls and fractures should be interpreted carefully.
Our results showed that patients may have already been at high risk before receiving the treatment, implying that
the interconnection among patients’ underlying conditions, drug effects on relieving neuropsychiatric symptoms,
and side effects of ChEIs and antipsychotic medications has increased the difficulty of delineating the exact
contributing factors and quantifying the magnitude of the risk of falls and fractures that each factor poses. Similar
findings have been reported in previous studies. For example, Brännström et al. [34] reported that the highest risk
of hip fractures occurred before initiation of antipsychotic medications (OR: 9.09; 95% CI: 7.00 to 11.81 within -
16 to -30 days and OR: 5.84; 95% CI: 4.42 to 7.71 within -1 to -15 days), rather than after receiving treatment
(OR: 4.31; 95% CI: 3.05 to 6.10 within 1 to 15 days). Pratt et al. [35] also found that the risk of hospitalization
for hip fractures was the highest one week before antipsychotic medications initiation (IRR 10.99; 95% CI: 7.94
to 15.21), and the risks reduced within one week after antipsychotic medications initiation (IRR 1.04; 95% CI:
0.40 to 2.70). These findings suggested that the observed higher risks of outcomes during the exposure periods
might not be attributable to the medications alone.
Newly cited reference:
30. Gill SS, Anderson GM, Fischer HD, Bell CM, Li P, Normand S-LT, et al. Syncope and Its Consequences in Patients With
Dementia Receiving Cholinesterase Inhibitors: A Population-Based Cohort Study. Archives of Internal Medicine.
2009;169(9):867-73.
31. Epstein NU, Guo R, Farlow MR, Singh JP, Fisher M. Medication for Alzheimer's disease and associated fall hazard: a
retrospective cohort study from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. Drugs & aging. 2014;31(2):125-9.
32. Johnell K, Jonasdottir Bergman G, Fastbom J, Danielsson B, Borg N, Salmi P. Psychotropic drugs and the risk of fall injuries,
hospitalisations and mortality among older adults. International journal of geriatric psychiatry. 2017;32(4):414-20.
33. Koponen M, Taipale H, Lavikainen P, Tanskanen A, Tiihonen J, Tolppanen AM, et al. Antipsychotic Use and the Risk of Hip
Fracture Among Community-Dwelling Persons With Alzheimer's Disease. J Clin Psychiatry. 2017;78(3):e257-e63.
34. Brännström J, Lövheim H, Gustafson Y, Nordström P. Antipsychotic Drugs and Hip Fracture: Associations Before and After
the Initiation of Treatment. Journal of the American Medical Directors Association. 2020;21(11):1636-42.e6.
35. Pratt N, Roughead EE, Ramsay E, Salter A, Ryan P. Risk of hospitalization for hip fracture and pneumonia associated with
antipsychotic prescribing in the elderly. Drug safety. 2011;34(7):567-75.
Comment 20: Discussion
Similarly, the authors should avoid unfounded inferences that these medications ‘may in fact’ reduce risk. This is
a hypothesis that could be derived for future testing but it is clearly not a fact. If the side effects of antipsychotic
medications resulted in immobility and drowsiness, as well as cerebrovascular events or progression in dementia,
this could explain a reduction in falls – this would not be a desirable approach.
Thank you for the comment. We have removed “in fact” from the sentence.
Yes, we agree that some side effects of antipsychotic medications may also reduce the risk of falls and fractures,
such as immobility and drowsiness, or bedridden state, due to cerebrovascular events, etc. We have highlighted
these possibilities in the discussion section.
Revision:
(DISCUSSION, Unanswered Questions and Future Research)
While the reason for the elevated risk during the pre-exposure period may lie in the relatively unstable disease
status of patients, the actual reasons will need to be elucidated by further studies. The risks during the exposure to
29
the treatment could reflect a composite consequence of patients’ unstable disease status, effects of medications on
relieving neuropsychiatric symptoms, and side effects of medications. For example, some side effects of
antipsychotic medications such as orthostatic hypotension, sedation, and extrapyramidal symptoms could
increase the risks of falls and fractures, while others such as immobility, drowsiness or being bedridden could
reduce these risks. However, these explanations are based mainly on clinical observations, and could not be
exhaustively tested in the current study. Future studies considering the severity of major NCD (e.g., Mini Mental
State Examination scale or Clinical Dementia Rating scale) and patient reported information might provide a
better platform to address these issues.
Comment 21: Discussion
I’d avoid the term ‘show interactions with’ to describe the co-exposure of anti-psychotics and ChEIs in
preference of the term ‘show additive effects in combination with’. It is not clear if there was an effect that it
would be classed a drug-drug interaction.
Thank you for the suggestion. In response to your Comment 17, we have removed the analysis for synergistic
effects and the related descriptions from the revised manuscript. We agree with you that this is another topic that
requires deeper rationale and more detailed definitions.
Comment 22: Discussion
The E value should not appear for the first time in the discussion and should be explained for general readers in
the methods section and why considerable unmeasured confounders would be required to explain away the
estimate.
Thank you for the suggestion. We have added the explanation for the use of the E-value in the method section.
Revision:
(METHODS, Statistical Analysis and Covariates, 2nd paragraph)
Because some potentially important confounders such as patients’ body weight, daily life activities, and the use
of walking aids were not available in the database, we adopted a quantitative bias assessment tool, the E-value
approach, to evaluate the minimum effect from an unmeasured confounder that would suffice to obviate the
association found between the exposure and the outcome [36]. For example, an E-value of 5 indicates that the
unmeasured confounder would need to be associated with both exposure and outcome by a factor of more than
five times in order to render the observed association irrelevant. Computation of the E-value was based on the
work of Mathur et al [37].
(DISCUSSION, Strengths and weaknesses)
Sixth, our study may be subject to unmeasured confounders such as patients’ daily living activities. The
quantitative bias assessment (i.e., E-value) showed that the potentially unmeasured confounders need to have
very large effect size so as to refute the observed high risks of falls and fractures during the pre-exposure period.
According to the literature [38], potential unmeasured confounders have not been shown to have such a large
effect size, and we thus concluded that the results were not affected significantly by these confounders.
Newly cited reference:
36. VanderWeele, T.J. and P. Ding, Sensitivity analysis in observational research: introducing the E-value. Annals of internal
medicine, 2017. 167(4): p. 268-274.
30
37. Mathur, M.B., et al., Web Site and R Package for Computing E-values. Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.), 2018. 29(5): p.
e45-e47.
38. Fernando E, Fraser M, Hendriksen J, Kim CH, Muir-Hunter SW. Risk factors associated with falls in older adults with
dementia: a systematic review. Physiotherapy Canada. 2017;69(2):161-70.
Comment 23: Discussion
The authors mention that they compared their findings to data from other countries – this needs to be expanded
upon. It is too brief to draw out any comparisons or conclusions.
Thank you for the comment. The reason we selected these guidelines/studies was to confirm that the “dosage” of
medication used in our study population was similar to that in the other studies. The results showed our dosages
were within the ranges reported by previous studies. We have revised the manuscript to make this clearer.
Daily doses (mg) Masopust, et al [39] Haw, et al [40] Lin, Yi-Ting, et al [41] Our study
Haloperidol 0.5-5 0.5-2 - Median: 0.8
Risperidone 0.25-1 0.5-2 Mean: 1 Median: 1.0
Olanzapine 2.5-7.5 2.5-10 - Median: 2.0
Quetiapine 12.5-150 25-150 Mean: 43.8 Median: 40.0
Revision:
(DISCUSSION, Strengths and Weaknesses)
Lastly, our study did not evaluate the dose-response relationship between the drugs and the risk of falls and
fractures. However, we did compare the dosages of antipsychotic medications from our study population with
those reported in guidelines and previous studies, and the dosages were within the suggested ranges [39-41].
Moreover, the stratification analysis by PDD/DDD ratio indicated the dosages of antipsychotic medications did
not have a differential impact on the risks of falls and fractures.
Newly cited reference:
39. Masopust, J., et al., Treatment of behavioral and psychological symptoms of dementias with psychopharmaceuticals: a
review. Neuropsychiatric disease and treatment, 2018. 14: p. 1211.
40. Haw, C., G. Yorston, and J. Stubbs, Guidelines on antipsychotics for dementia: are we losing our minds? Psychiatric Bulletin,
2009. 33(2): p. 57-60.
41. Lin, Y.-T., et al., Dosage and duration of antipsychotic treatment in demented outpatients with agitation or psychosis. Journal
of the Formosan Medical Association, 2015. 114(2): p. 147-153.
Comment 24: Discussion
P9 Line 12 – typo: Cognitive impairment should not be pleural ‘cognitive impairments’
We have corrected it. Thank you.
Comment 25: Discussion
P9 Line 13 - ChEIs are not disease modifying medications that ‘slow’ progression – please rephrase and please
put ‘respectively’ after ‘control BSPD’ to make clear to readers you are not suggesting ‘antipsychotics can slow
the progress of cognitive impairment’.
We have revised it accordingly. Thank you.
Revision:
(DISCUSSION, Meaning of the Study, 1st paragraph)
31
ChEIs can improve cognitive function, and antipsychotic medications can control neuropsychiatric symptoms.
Therefore, they are commonly prescribed for patients with major NCD.
Comment 26: Discussion
The ‘Unanswered questions and future research’ section is ineloquent – please rephrase this – I get the idea but it
is very poorly phrased.
Thank you for the comment. We have rephrased the ‘Unanswered questions and future research’ section.
Revision:
(DISCUSSION, Unanswered questions and future research)
While the reason for the elevated risk during the pre-exposure period may lie in the relatively unstable disease
status of patients, the actual reasons will need to be elucidated by further studies. The risks during the exposure to
the treatment could reflect a composite consequence of patients’ unstable disease status, effects of medications on
relieving neuropsychiatric symptoms, and side effects of medications. For example, some side effects of
antipsychotic medications such as orthostatic hypotension, sedation, and extrapyramidal symptoms could
increase the risks of falls and fractures, while others such as immobility, drowsiness or being bedridden could
reduce these risks. However, these explanations are based mainly on clinical observations, and could not be
exhaustively tested in the current study. Future studies considering the severity of major NCD (e.g., Mini Mental
State Examination scale or Clinical Dementia Rating scale) and patient reported information might provide a
better platform to address these issues.
Comment 27: Conclusion
In the conclusion, I would again avoid the implication that somehow anti-psychotic medications represent some
sort of potential treatment for falls associated with dementia – it is as the authors hint at, much more likely to be
due to reverse causation and as I have indicated an element of indication bias that could not be identified in the
study (related to dementia severity and other confounders related to the diagnosis and dementia subtypes, as well
as the doses of anti-psychotics, which were not available/provided).
Thank you for the suggestion. We have revised the conclusion section accordingly. We greatly appreciate all of
your comments, which have substantially improved our manuscript.
Revision:
(Conclusion)
The incidence of falls and fractures was especially high in the pre-exposure period, suggesting that some factors
other than the medications, such as underlying diseases, should be taken into consideration when evaluating the
association between the risk of falls and fractures, and the use of ChEIs and antipsychotic medications. The
exposure periods were also associated with higher risk of falls and fractures compared with the non-exposure
period, although the magnitude was much lower than during the pre-exposure periods. Prevention strategies and
close monitoring of risk of falls are still necessary until there is evidence that patients have restored to a steady
status.
32
Reviewer 3: Professor Jeremy M Jacobs
Overall Comment
This is a very interesting study, which addresses an increasingly common clinical dilemma- whether or not to
treat the behavioral and psychological symptoms of dementia (BPSD) with antipsychotics, despite the increased
risk of falls associated with treatment. Indeed it is widely accepted that the use of neuroleptics among people
with dementia is associated with increased falls and fractures, morbidity (particularly cardiovascular and
cerebrovascular), and is considered as off label "black label" in the USA. Nonetheless, among clinicians this
consensus is often somewhat counterintuitive, particularly when faced with extreme psychomotor agitation,
which often seems to place the patient at far greater immediate risk than the increased risks associated with
neuroleptics which have been repeatedly described in epidemiological data.
This novel study examines the risk of falls and fractures associated with antipsychotics (first and second
generation ) as well as Cholinesterase inhibitors among people aged over 65, using data from the National Health
Insurance database in Taiwan, which includes medical data covering 23 million people (99% of population). The
study includes 10, 750 subjects, average age at baseline 75, 65% females, free from psychiatric illness/previous
use of antipsychotics/cholinesterase inhibitors, who were admitted at least once during the years 2006-2017 for a
fall and or fracture. Subjects with early mortality during the 3 months post fall were excluded, and "washout”
periods were also taken into consideration. They used a self-controlled case series design to examine the risk for
falls and fractures according to medications in the "non-exposure" versus the (immediate) "pre exposure" versus
the "exposure" periods. The exposure period was examined according to either antipsychotics alone (either first
or second gen), or cholinesterase inhibitors or both. As the authors point out, the method was unable to adjust for
time sensitive patient factors, specifically disease progression during the different time-periods. Thus, take for
example, a subject aged 75 at entry in 2006 who was treated with medication from 2015-2017: fall risk in the
"non exposed” period aged 75 would be compared to fall risk aged 85 at the start of the "exposed "period. In
addition to the consequences of natural aging (both biological and chronological) affecting fall risk, the time at
which dementia developed remains unknown. The overall finding of the study is that fall risk was lowest in the
"non exposed" period, highest (by a factor of nearly five) in the "pre exposure" period, and much lower in the
"exposed "period (around 1.4 compared to non exposed). The explanation of the findings is that the fall risk of
untreated BPSD carries a far higher risk of falls and fractures than treated BPSD.
Thank you very much for the supportive comment and the summary of our study. We appreciate the example and
have addressed the issues in detail in Comment 1-4.
33
This is a novel and very interesting research finding, resonates with clinical real world practice, and may
contribute to the ongoing debate and dilemma concerning the use of neuroleptics in BPSD. Overall the article is
concise, fairly clearly written, logical, clearly presented. The hypothesis and rationale are clearly spelled out, and
appropriate references provided (however, they might provide greater depth on the literature concerning
increased risk/morbidity/mechanism/ mortality associated with neuroleptics; and where possible also for
acetylcholinesterase inhibs). The methodology requires greater detail and depth. Results are presented clearly,
easy on the reader, figures and tables intuitive and easy to understand (except fig 2). The discussion, is short, to
the point, clear, and covers the studies limitations. In my opinion the paper is interesting relevant to a wide
readership and covers a very common clinical entity. The data presented, which seems to explain a common
dilemma in daily practice, is in contrast to much of the existing research which currently shapes consensus
opinion. My suggestions for improvement surround the need for far greater explanation concerning methodology.
We appreciate the positive comments and the constructive suggestions. We have revised the manuscript
accordingly, especially the method section, with more details as you suggested. Please review our point-by-point
responses below.
Comment 1-1:
Since aimed at a wide readership, the methodology requires to be explained in greater detail. Particularly, it
remains unclear to me after several readings how the different time periods (non/pre/yes-exposure) were dealt
with. Specifically, it seems very important to know how the "pre exposure" period was defined –since this is the
area which provides the novel research finding of higher risk with no treatment compared to treatment.
Thank you for the suggestion. We have revised the method section and explained the definition of the "pre-
exposure" period in detail. Moreover, we have revised the Figure 2 to make it clearer and easier to understand.
Revision:
(METHODS, Outcome Events and Exposure periods)
We classified the study time into five discrete periods: 1) 14-day pre-exposure period prior to the exposure to
drugs, 2) exposure to ChEIs alone, 3) exposure to antipsychotic medications alone, 4) exposure to a combination
of ChEIs and antipsychotic medications, and 5) non-exposure when neither ChEIs nor antipsychotic medications
were given. The 14-day pre-exposure period was designed to evaluate the increased incidence of falls and
fractures due to neuropsychiatric symptoms of major NCD before the initiation of medications, and to benchmark
the risk magnitude during the exposure periods.
(Figure 2, Study scheme and definitions of exposure periods)
34
Abbreviation: ChEI, cholinesterase inhibitor; AP, antipsychotic medication
We defined a 3-year washout period before the index date for exclusion of patients with a prior history of falls and
fractures. We defined a 1-year baseline period to assess patients’ baseline covariates. We classified the study time into
five discrete periods: 1) 14-day pre-exposure period prior to the exposure to drugs, 2) exposure to ChEIs alone, 3)
exposure to antipsychotic medications alone, 4) exposure to a combination of ChEIs and antipsychotic medications,
and 5) non-exposure when neither ChEIs nor antipsychotic medications were given. If a refill was noted within 14
days after the end date of the last prescription (i.e., 14-day grace period), it was considered as a continuation of a
previous prescription. The remaining periods without prescription of ChEIs or antipsychotic medications were defined
as non-exposure.
Comment 1-2:
Page 6 for example (line 39) mentions that the pre exposure period was adjusted (typo adjested) from 1-4 weeks.
The logic here remains unclear, and requires to be fully spelled out.
Thank you for the question and the correction of a typo.
There is no clear evidence from the literature on the exact duration that is adequate for assessing baseline risk in
the pre-exposure period. We assumed 14 days because many elderly patients with chronic conditions were
followed up every two weeks, based on our experience. We have redefined pre-exposure periods with various
lengths of 7, 21, and 28 days, beyond the original 14-day period, and repeated the analysis to examine the
adequacy of the original definition of 14-day pre-exposure and the robustness of our results. Please review the
results below and the full version in Supplementary Table 3-10.
Revision:
(METHODS, Sensitivity Analyses, 2nd paragraph)
We further redefined the pre-exposure period to include various lengths of 7, 21 and 28 days to test the adequacy
of a 14-day pre-exposure period in the main analysis (Supplementary Table 3-10).
(RESULTS, Sensitivity Analyses)
When we redefined multiple lengths of pre-exposure periods to 7, 21 and 28 days, the adjusted IRRs of these pre-
exposure periods were 9.49 (8.64, 10.43), 4.91 (4.56, 5.30) and 4.43 (4.14, 4.75), respectively.
(DISCUSSION, Meaning of the Study, 2nd paragraph)
35
Furthermore, we have tested various lengths of pre-exposure period from 7 days to 28 days. The IRR was the
highest when the length of the pre-exposure period was defined as 7 days (IRR: 9.49), and it decreased as the
duration of the pre-exposure period lengthened - 14 days (IRR: 6.17), 21 days (IRR: 4.91), and 28 days (IRR: 4.43).
Based on these results, it can be concluded that a 7-day pre-exposure duration probably represents a period of rapid
deterioration. On the other hand, a duration of more than 21 days possibly captures a relatively stable status.
Therefore, our decision to use 14 days appears to be adequate.
(Supplementary Table 3-10)
*Note: this is a truncated version for inclusion in the letter only. The manuscript displays a full table.
Comment 1-3:
As regards the Non-exposed period-was the whole period taken and compared to the relatively short and the
extremely short exposed or pre exposed periods.
Thank you for the question. Although the different periods were of different durations, they were comparable
because the SCCS was based on the comparison of incidence “rates”; that is, the numbers of cases divided by the
observed duration.
Comment 1-4:
Here again, as in the example above, for a 75 year old subject enrolled at 2006, with treatment started in 2015,
then the comparison would be the average of 10 years at ages 75-85, compared to the average of 1-2 years at age
85-86. Again, how was the bias of aging and dementia progression adjusted for?
Events, n
Follow-up time,
person-years,
sum
IR (95%CI),
/100 person-years
Adjusted IRR
(95%CI)
Redefine the pre-exposure period to
7 days prior to exposure (n=15,278)
Non-exposure 10,343 123,433.84 8.38 (8.22, 8.54) Reference
Pre-exposure 474 580.21 81.69 (74.58, 89.30) 9.49 (8.64,10.43)
Cholinesterase inhibitor alone 1,827 19,125.99 9.55 (9.12, 10.00) 1.17 (1.10, 1.25)
Antipsychotic medication alone 1,364 13,180.82 10.35 (9.81, 10.91) 1.30 (1.21, 1.39)
Combination 1,270 12,037.35 10.55 (9.98, 11.14) 1.32 (1.23, 1.42)
***Main analysis
14-day prior to exposure (n=15,278)
Non-exposure 10,208 122,963.00 8.30 (8.14, 8.46) Reference
Pre-exposure 657 1,254.90 52.35 (48.46, 56.47) 6.17 (5.69, 6.69)
Cholinesterase inhibitor alone 1,790 19,018.33 9.41 (8.98, 9.86) 1.17 (1.10, 1.24)
Antipsychotic medication alone 1,353 13,087.45 10.34 (9.80, 10.89) 1.33 (1.24, 1.43)
Combination 1,270 12,037.35 10.55 (9.98, 11.14) 1.35 (1.26, 1.45)
Redefine the pre-exposure period to
21 days prior to exposure (n=15,278)
Non-exposure 10,115 122,497.41 8.26 (8.10, 8.42) Reference
Pre-exposure 792 1,924.81 41.15 (38.35, 44.09) 4.91 (4.56, 5.30)
Cholinesterase inhibitor alone 1,759 18,910.18 9.30 (8.88, 9.74) 1.17 (1.10, 1.24)
Antipsychotic medication alone 1,342 12,993.52 10.33 (9.79, 10.89) 1.34 (1.25, 1.44)
Combination 1,270 12,037.35 10.55 (9.98, 11.14) 1.37 (1.27, 1.47)
28 days prior to exposure (n=15,278)
Non-exposure 10,001 122,034.57 8.20 (8.04, 8.36) Reference
Pre-exposure 949 2,591.75 36.62 (34.34, 39.00) 4.43 (4.14, 4.75)
Cholinesterase inhibitor alone 1,736 18,802.14 9.23 (8.81, 9.68) 1.18 (1.11, 1.25)
Antipsychotic medication alone 1,322 12,901.92 10.25 (9.71, 10.81) 1.35 (1.26, 1.45)
Combination 1,270 12,037.35 10.55 (9.98, 11.14) 1.39 (1.29, 1.49)
36
Considering aging and dementia progression of patients, we used a time-varying manner to adjust for the age-
related effects of patients. To minimize the effects from age and age-related factors, we used one-year boundaries
for the analysis as suggested by a study published by BMJ [42]. This approach is to break down the study periods
not only by “exposure status” but also by “one-year boundary”, as presented below (for example, the time
periods were classified as 12 different periods). The concept is to compare the risk of exposure and non-exposure
within the same year, and an overall estimate is generated by Poisson regression model, which incorporates the
estimates from each year band. We have revised the manuscript and explained this in detail.
Revision:
(Method, Statistical Analysis and Covariates, 2nd paragraph)
Therefore, we adopted a one-year boundary to split the study duration in order to take into account possible age-
related effects when estimating the effects. That is, we partitioned the observation period not only by the
exposure status, but also by one-year intervals (e.g., the first, second and third years etc.) This time-varying
method to adjust for age effects has been described in detail elsewhere [42].
Newly cited reference:
42. Petersen I, Douglas I, Whitaker H. Self-controlled case series methods: an alternative to standard epidemiological study
designs. BMJ. 2016;354:i4515.
Comment 2:
The study outcomes were falls and fractures. It is somewhat unclear throughout the text whether or not the actual
outcome is a fall resulting in a fracture, or a fall (on its own with no fracture) or any fracture (??not resulting
from a fall??). Sometimes the text is falls and fractures, sometimes falls or fractures. Only in figure 3 does it
become apparent. Similarly only on page 7 is it specifically stated, line 39-42: states that subgroup sensitivity
analyses were performed for falls and fractures separately, as well as falls and fractures together (all events, in fig
3) with consistent results.
Thank you for the clarification question. Our primary analysis included a composite of falls and fractures, after
which we analysed falls and fractures separately in the secondary analyses.
From the database, we were not able to differentiate whether the fractures were caused by falls; therefore, we
selected only traumatic fractures (excluding pathological fractures and stress fractures) as the study outcomes to
improve the validity. We also restricted the outcomes to specific falls and hip fractures in one of the sensitivity
analyses because previous studies have reported that 95% of hip fractures were caused by falls [43]. The results
from the sensitivity analysis were consistent. We have revised the manuscript to avoid confusion. Please review
the results below and the full version in Supplementary Table 3-8.
Revision:
(METHODS, Outcome Events and Exposure periods)
37
The primary outcome of interest was a composite of falls (ICD-9 code: E880-E888; ICD-10 code: W00-W19)
and traumatic fractures (ICD-9 code: 800-829; ICD-10 code: S02, S12, S22, S32, S42, S52, S62, S72, S82, S92),
whereby we also analysed falls and fractures separately in secondary analyses.
(METHODS, Sensitivity Analyses, 2nd paragraph)
Moreover, we carried out a sensitivity analysis and selected specific diagnostic codes for falls and fractures (i.e.,
falls from a different level [ICD-9: E880-E884; ICD-10: W00.1, W00.2, W05-W17], falls from the same level
[ICD-9: E885-E886; ICD-10: W00.0, W01-W04, W18], and hip fractures [ICD-9: 820; ICD-10: S72]) to
examine the validity of the outcomes. The reason for selecting hip fractures was that more than 95% of hip
fractures are related to falls [43] (Supplementary Table 3-8).
Newly cited reference:
43. Parkkari J, Kannus P, Palvanen M, Natri A, Vainio J, Aho H, et al. Majority of hip fractures occur as a result of a fall and
impact on the greater trochanter of the femur: a prospective controlled hip fracture study with 206 consecutive patients.
Calcified tissue international. 1999;65(3):183-7.
(Supplementary Table 3-8)
*Note: this is a truncated version for inclusion in the letter only. The manuscript displays a full table.
Comment 3:
Figure 2 was very unclear to me and needs to be improved in my opinion. Where is the Non Exposure period? It
seems to be lacking a legend.
Thank you for the comment. We have revised our Figure 2 accordingly, and we have also added on a legend for
the non-exposure period.
(Figure 2, Study scheme and definitions of exposure periods)
Events, n
Follow-up time,
person-years,
sum
IR (95%CI),
/100 person-years
Adjusted IRR
(95%CI)
Redefine outcome by specific codes, all
events (n=5,458)
Non-exposure 3,300 42,804.53 7.71 (7.45, 7.98) Reference
Pre-exposure 379 453.89 83.50 (75.40, 92.23) 10.16 (9.10,11.35)
Cholinesterase inhibitor alone 648 6,716.32 9.65 (8.93, 10.41) 1.22 (1.11, 1.35)
Antipsychotic medication alone 594 5,272.78 11.27 (10.39, 12.20) 1.52 (1.36, 1.69)
Combination 537 4,321.32 12.43 (11.41, 13.51) 1.67 (1.49, 1.87)
Falls (n=621)
Non-exposure 272 5,468.39 4.97 (4.41, 5.59) Reference
Pre-exposure 73 51.14 142.70 (112.70, 178.50) 10.77 (8.19,14.16)
Cholinesterase inhibitor alone 95 780.78 12.17 (9.90, 14.81) 0.87 (0.65, 1.16)
Antipsychotic medication alone 89 474.53 18.76 (15.15, 22.97) 1.26 (0.91, 1.74)
Combination 92 404.43 22.75 (18.44, 27.77) 1.49 (1.09, 2.04)
Fractures (n=5,149)
Non-exposure 3,139 40,185.37 7.81 (7.54, 8.09) Reference
Pre-exposure 357 428.79 83.26 (74.95, 92.24) 10.41 (9.29,11.66)
Cholinesterase inhibitor alone 603 6,325.23 9.53 (8.80, 10.32) 1.26 (1.13, 1.39)
Antipsychotic medication alone 554 5,014.47 11.05 (10.16, 12.00) 1.57 (1.40, 1.76)
Combination 496 4,115.68 12.05 (11.03, 13.15) 1.70 (1.51, 1.91)
38
Abbreviation: ChEI, cholinesterase inhibitor; AP, antipsychotic medication
We defined a 3-year washout period before the index date for exclusion of patients with a prior history of falls and
fractures. We defined a 1-year baseline period to assess patients’ baseline covariates. We classified the study time into
five discrete periods: 1) 14-day pre-exposure period prior to the exposure to drugs, 2) exposure to ChEIs alone, 3)
exposure to antipsychotic medications alone, 4) exposure to a combination of ChEIs and antipsychotic medications,
and 5) non-exposure when neither ChEIs nor antipsychotic medications were given. If a refill was noted within 14
days after the end date of the last prescription (i.e., 14-day grace period), it was considered as a continuation of a
previous prescription. The remaining periods without prescription of ChEIs or antipsychotic medications were defined
as non-exposure.
Comment 4:
Figure 1: need a bit of clarification: 22,665 subjects reduced down to 10, 750. Why/who were the 11,915
excluded? Were they different to the 2,288 and 4,613 for whom a reason was given? The numbers need to be
clarified
Thank you for the question. We have revised the numbers in the flowchart and added the reasons for each
exclusion. Please review the revised Figure 1.
(Figure 1: Selection flowchart of the study population)
39
Reviewer 4: Dr. Jon Brännström
Overall Comment
Thank you for the opportunity to review this interesting manuscript. Wang et al has put the spotlight on a very
important and delicate matter in observational research - that of the difficulties in drawing conclusions about
causality from associations. The method is elegant, but there is some room for improvement. This manuscript has
potential of being transformed into an article worthy of publication, if improved further. I have two major points,
and several minor points, that need to be addressed.
Thank you very much for the very supportive comment. Please review our point-by-point response and
corresponding revisions below.
Comment 1:
The principle finding of the highest risk of falls and fractures during the 14-day pre-treatment period relies
heavily on the timing of dates set for initiation of treatment as well as the dates of diagnoses of falls and
fractures. Hence, the methods section (page 6, lines 3-23) needs to be more detailed and able to answer the
following questions:
‐ Outcome date. Diagnoses of falls and fractures were collected from inpatient claims, but how were the dates
of the diagnoses registered? Were diagnoses registered at the date of the actual occurrence of the fall or
fracture, at admission to inpatient care, or at release from inpatient care? Depending on how the database
(NHID) is organized and on how diagnoses are dated in the register, it is possible that the outcome event is
registered later than the actual event. This needs to be addressed.
‐ Index (exposure) date. Are all medications administered during inpatient care taken into account in the
analyses? It is not uncommon for a pharmacological treatment to be initiated during inpatient care, and
continued after release from hospital as a prescription. This could result in the index/exposure date being
registered days or weeks after the actual initiation of treatment. This needs to be clarified.
Thank you for the critical questions. Yes, we agree with you that the accuracy of dates for exposure and outcome
is especially important for self-controlled case series. We have the exact dates of the prescriptions for both
inpatient and outpatient claims. However, for those who had falls or fractures during hospitalization, the outcome
date may be a few days or weeks later than the actual date of event occurrence because the diagnoses may only
have been registered at release from inpatient care. We may thus have underestimated the risk during exposure
period for those who had falls or fractures during hospitalization and then discontinued the medication (the event
was misclassified to non-exposure period).
Revision:
(DISCUSSION, Strengths and Weaknesses)
Seventh, we did not have the exact outcome dates for those who had falls or fractures during hospitalization
because the diagnoses were registered at the discharge date, and thus the outcome dates we analysed may have
been later than the dates of actual event occurrences. Therefore, we may have underestimated the risk during the
exposure period for those who had falls or fractures during hospitalization and then discontinued the medications.
40
Comment 2:
I can understand why you have excluded patients with schizophrenia, but to exclude patients with depression
does not make sense to me. The prodromal phase of major neurocognitive disorder (NCD; dementia) often
includes depression, and depression and major NCD comorbidity is common. Excluding people with depression
makes the conclusions of your results only valid for a subgroup of patients with major NCD. I strongly suggest
that you redo the selection of participants to include those with psychiatric illness other than primary psychotic
conditions, such as schizophrenia. If not, this must be addressed as a major limitation.
We appreciate the comment. Originally we excluded patients with these underlying conditions (schizophrenia,
bipolar disorder, and depression) to ensure the antipsychotic medications were used to treat neuropsychiatric
symptoms of major neurocognitive disorder (NCD). However, we agree with your opinion and therefore have
removed “depression” from the exclusion criteria. Please review Figure 1 for the study selection flowchart.
Revision:
(METHODS, Study population)
We also excluded patients with underlying schizophrenia and bipolar disorder to ensure that antipsychotic
medications were used to treat the neuropsychiatric symptoms of major NCD.
(Figure 1: Selection flowchart of the study population)
41
Comment 3:
Throughout the manuscript the terms “dementia” and “behavioural and psychological symptoms of dementia
(BPSD)” are used. Consider using the more up-to-date terminology of “neurocognitive disorder (NCD)” and
“neuropsychiatric symptoms of NCD” instead.
Thank you for the suggestion. We have updated the terminology throughout the manuscript.
Comment 4:
Consider analysing more time frames than pre-exposure (14 days), non-exposure and during exposure (3
different). What about 1-14 days following exposure? Several previous studies have found strong associations
between antipsychotics and falls/fracture soon after initiation of treatment. This would certainly be an interesting
addition to your study, and probably easy to conduct. A more difficult period to analyse is 1-14 days following
discontinuation of treatment. Does discontinuation lower or raise the incidence rate? Knowing when someone
actually discontinues treatment is quite difficult in a registry study however, so this might not be feasible.
Thank you for the inspiring suggestion. We have added a sensitivity analysis which further specifies the periods
within 1-14 days following exposure, and also 1-14 days following discontinuation of treatment. We found the
risk during the 1-14 day period following discontinuation of treatment was higher than during the non-exposure
period. Please review the results below and the full version in Supplementary Table 3-12.
Revision:
(Supplementary Figure 1. Study scheme and definitions of exposure periods for sensitivity analysis)
Abbreviation: ChEI, cholinesterase inhibitor; AP, antipsychotic medication
We defined a 3-year washout period before the starting date to exclude patients with a prior history of falls and
fractures. We defined a 1-year baseline period to assess patients’ baseline covariates. 1) 14-day pre-exposure period
prior to the exposure to drugs, 2) exposure to ChEIs alone, 3) exposure to antipsychotic medications alone, 4)
exposure to a combination of ChEIs and antipsychotic medications, and 5) non-exposure when neither ChEIs nor
antipsychotic medications were given. If a refill was noted within 14 days after the end date of the last prescription
(i.e., 14-day grace period), it was considered as a continuation of a previous prescription. We further classified the
periods 6) within 1-14 days after exposure, and 7) within 1-14 days after discontinuation of treatment. The remaining
time periods without prescription of ChEIs or antipsychotic medications were defined as non-exposure.
(METHODS, Sensitivity Analyses, 3rd paragraph)
42
Some studies have found strong associations between antipsychotic medications and falls and fractures
immediately after treatment initiation or shortly after discontinuation of treatment [44-45]. We therefore defined
two more study periods of 14 days: one after treatment initiation, the other following treatment discontinuation
(Supplementary Table 3-12).
(RESULTS, Sensitivity Analyses)
Finally, the adjusted IRRs were 3.31 (2.96, 3.70) within 14 days after treatment initiation and 1.24 (1.05, 1.47)
within 14 days after discontinuation of treatment.
(DISCUSSION, Meaning of the Study, 2nd paragraph)
Moreover, the IRR within 14 days after treatment initiation was higher than during other exposure periods,
suggesting that a minimum duration of exposure might be required to stabilize these patients. The IRR within 14
days after discontinuation of treatment was higher than during the non-exposure period, suggesting that clinical
attention is still necessary in the initial stage after patients discontinue their treatments.
Newly cited reference:
44. Pouwels, S., et al., Antipsychotic use and the risk of hip/femur fracture: a population-based case-control study. Osteoporosis
international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the
National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA, 2009. 20(9): p. 1499-1506.
45. Torstensson, M., et al., Danish register-based study on the association between specific antipsychotic drugs and fractures in
elderly individuals. Age and Ageing, 2016. 46(2): p. 258-264.
(Supplementary Table 3-12)
*Note: this is a truncated version for inclusion in the letter only. The manuscript displays a full table.
Comment 5:
The method of the current manuscript, as well as the findings of the study, have obvious similarities to a study by
Brannstrom et al, published in JAMDA (DOI: 10.1016/j.jamda.2020.06.047). This paper should be cited and your
results compared to those of that study. The results of that study would be in support of your conclusions.
Thank you very much for the recommendation. We have learnt a lot from the study by Brannstrom et al. We have
summarized and compared the findings from Brannstrom et al with ours in the revised manuscript.
Revision:
(DISCUSSION, Principal Findings, 2nd paragraph)
Our results showed that patients may have already been at high risk before receiving the treatment, implying that
the interconnection among patients’ underlying conditions, drug effects on relieving neuropsychiatric symptoms,
and side effects of ChEIs and antipsychotic medications has increased the difficulty of delineating the exact
Events, n
Follow-up time,
person-years,
sum
Incidence rate Adjusted IRR
(95%CI)
Redefine study periods (n=15,278)
Non-exposure 10,066 121,519.29 8.28 (8.12, 8.45) Reference
Pre-exposure (day -14 days of exposure) 657 1,254.90 52.35 (48.46, 56.47) 6.12 (5.64, 6.64)
Exposure (day 1 to day 14 of exposure) 325 1,136.03 28.61 (25.62, 31.85) 3.31 (2.96, 3.70)
Cholinesterase inhibitor (day 14+ of exposure) 1,746 18,613.18 9.38 (8.95, 9.83) 1.16 (1.09, 1.24)
Antipsychotic medication (day 14+ of exposure) 1,164 12,666.02 9.19 (8.67, 9.73) 1.13 (1.05, 1.22)
Combination (day 14+ of exposure) 1,178 11,652.41 10.11 (9.55, 10.70) 1.26 (1.17, 1.36)
Day 1 to day 14 after medication discontinuation 142 1,362.32 10.42 (8.81, 12.25) 1.24 (1.05, 1.47)
43
contributing factors and quantifying the magnitude of the risk of falls and fractures that each factor poses. Similar
findings have been reported in previous studies. For example, Brännström et al. [46] reported that the highest risk
of hip fractures occurred before initiation of antipsychotic medications (OR: 9.09; 95% CI: 7.00 to 11.81 within -
16 to -30 days and OR: 5.84; 95% CI: 4.42 to 7.71 within -1 to -15 days), rather than after receiving treatment
(OR: 4.31; 95% CI: 3.05 to 6.10 within 1 to 15 days).
Newly cited reference:
46. Brännström J, Lövheim H, Gustafson Y, Nordström P. Antipsychotic Drugs and Hip Fracture: Associations Before and After
the Initiation of Treatment. Journal of the American Medical Directors Association. 2020;21(11):1636-42.e6.Pratt N,
Roughead EE, Ramsay E, Salter A, Ryan P. Risk of hospitalization for hip fracture and pneumonia associated with
antipsychotic prescribing in the elderly. Drug safety. 2011;34(7):567-75.
Comment 6:
You only count the first incidence of a fall or fracture, as subsequent falls are not independent of previous
falls/fractures. As correct as this may be, this could lead an overestimation of falls/fractures in the first specified
time frame, the pre-exposure phase. Consider performing sensitivity analyses including all counts of falls and
fractures, to minimize this risk.
Thank you for the suggestion. We have added a sensitivity analysis including all counts of falls and fractures to
address the issue. Please review the results below and the full version in Supplementary Table 3-9.
Revision:
(METHODS, Sensitivity Analyses, 2nd paragraph)
In the main analysis, we only included the first incidence of falls or fractures since subsequent events might not
be independent of previous falls or fractures. However, we performed a sensitivity analysis including all episodes
of falls and fractures in order to evaluate whether the exclusion of subsequent outcomes had significantly
impacted the results (Supplementary Table 3-9).
(Supplementary Table 3-9)
*Note: this is a truncated version for inclusion in the letter only. The manuscript displays a full table.
Comment 7:
You claim to have performed sensitivity analyses excluding those who died, and with different lengths of the pre-
exposure period. No results of the sensitivity analyses were included in the review material, however, and they
should be presented in full for transparency.
Thank you for the comment. We have added all the results from sensitivity analyses to the revised manuscript.
Table 3 presents a summary of results for adjusted IRR only. Detailed results are presented in Supplementary
Table 3-1 to 3-12.
Events, n
Follow-up time,
person-years,
sum
IR (95%CI),
/100 person-years
Adjusted IRR
(95%CI)
All counts of falls and fractures (n=15,278)
Non-exposure 16,448 122,963.00 13.38 (13.17, 13.58) Reference
Pre-exposure 1,159 1,254.90 92.36 (87.16, 97.79) 5.53 (5.21, 5.88)
Cholinesterase inhibitor alone 3,632 19,018.33 19.10 (18.48, 19.73) 1.16 (1.11, 1.21)
Antipsychotic medication alone 2,751 13,087.45 21.02 (20.25, 21.82) 1.24 (1.18, 1.31)
Combination 2,726 12,037.35 22.65 (21.81, 23.51) 1.31 (1.25, 1.38)
44
Comment 8:
Seeing how you excluded 8 participants due to missing sex information, I was expecting the results to be sex-
disaggregated. You should consider presenting results separately for women and men, to be able to detect
possible sex differences in the pattern of incidence. Several studies have shown sex differences in the
presentation of neuropsychiatric symptoms, as well as drug prescription patterns, so at least the main analyses
should be available as sex-disaggregated.
Thank you for the suggestion. We have added the suggested analysis accordingly. The results were consistent
with the main analysis. Please review the results below and the full version in Supplementary Table 3-1.
Revision:
(METHODS, Sensitivity Analyses, 1st paragraph)
We stratified the patients by sex (male or female) and age group (65 to 74 years, 75 to 84 years, and 85 years or
above) to minimize the effects of sex and age (Supplementary Table 3-1 and 3-2).
(DISCUSSION, Meaning of the study, 1st paragraph)
From our sensitivity analyses, we identified some groups who might have a higher risk of outcomes at the
baseline. For example, patients with advanced age or male sex had higher risks of falls and fractures.
(Supplementary Table 3-1)
*Note: this is a truncated version for inclusion in the letter only. The manuscript displays a full table.
Comment 9:
Exclusions. In Figure 1 you present the flowchart and exclusions are presented in two boxes. In the second box
the specified exclusions do not add up to the total number of exclusions. Please specify the reason for all
exclusions.
We have revised the Figure 1 and added the justification for each exclusion criterion.
Revision:
(METHODS, Study Population)
Events, n
Follow-up
time,
person-years,
sum
IR (95%CI),
/100 person-years Adjusted IRR (95%CI)
Stratification by sex
Male (n=5,088)
Non-exposure 3,239 40,347.80 8.03 (7.76, 8.31) Reference
Pre-exposure 285 421.32 67.64 (60.13, 75.85) 7.63 (6.73, 8.65)
Cholinesterase inhibitor alone 636 6,354.09 10.01 (9.25, 10.81) 1.18 (1.06, 1.30)
Antipsychotic medication alone 485 3,844.57 12.62 (11.53, 13.78) 1.55 (1.38, 1.75)
Combination 443 3,591.78 12.33 (11.22, 13.52) 1.48 (1.31, 1.67)
Female (n=10,190)
Non-exposure 6,969 82,615.20 8.44 (8.24, 8.64) Reference
Pre-exposure 372 833.58 44.63 (40.26, 49.34) 5.35 (4.80, 5.95)
Cholinesterase inhibitor alone 1,154 12,664.24 9.11 (8.60, 9.65) 1.16 (1.07, 1.25)
Antipsychotic medication alone 868 9,242.88 9.39 (8.78, 10.03) 1.24 (1.13, 1.35)
Combination 827 8,445.56 9.79 (9.14, 10.48) 1.29 (1.18, 1.41)
45
We excluded patients with a record of antipsychotic medications or ChEIs, or an episode of fall or fracture from
2003 to 2005 (washout period) to ensure that the whole study population consisted of incident drug users without
a history of falls or fractures. We also excluded patients with underlying schizophrenia and bipolar disorder to
ensure that antipsychotic medications were used to treat the neuropsychiatric symptoms of major NCD.
(Figure 1: Selection flowchart of the study population)
Comment 10:
Throughout the manuscript minor errors occur (e.g. spelling, abbreviations not spelled out, figure legends not
being fully informative). Consider have the manuscript professionally edited.
Thank you for your suggestion. We have completed professional editing by an English native speaker.
Comment 11:
In your discussion you draw the conclusion the drugs mitigate the risk of falling and that the slightly higher
incidence rate ratios during exposure means that the treated underlying conditions are responsible for this
increase. This is possible of course, but another possibility (and just as likely, if not more likely) is that the drugs
themselves pose a small increase in risk. Your discussion should be more nuanced and humble towards the
possibility of an actual risk associated with psychotropic drug use. Although your results, and those of some
previous studies, point towards residual confounding and confounding by indication being highly prevalent in the
often found association between psychotropic drug use and falls/fractures, this does not mean that psychotropics
are protective in this regards, and surely this has not been proven.
We appreciate the critical comment. We have revised our discussion in both depth and scope. We have also
revised our conclusion according to your comment.
Revision:
(DISCUSSION, Principal findings, 1st paragraph)
From this population-based SCCS, we found that exposures to ChEIs and antipsychotic medications were both
associated with higher risk of falls and fractures compared with the non-exposure period. However, the results
should be interpreted carefully. The 14-day pre-exposure period revealed exceptionally high incidence rates of
46
falls and fractures, indicating that patients may have already been at a high risk of outcome events before
receiving the medications. The observed higher risks during the exposure periods, as compared with the non-
exposure period, may be due to the neuropsychiatric symptoms in addition to the medication use. Our results
suggest that the increased risk of falls and fractures was very likely resulted from the underlying BPSD, rather
than the exposure of ChEIs and antipsychotics. The use of the study drugs may in fact mitigate the risk. This
implied that the patients’ condition might not have been fully restored to a steady status, despite receiving
treatment. This conclusion remained robust throughout a series of subgroup and sensitivity analyses.
(DISCUSSION, Unanswered questions and future research)
While the reason for the elevated risk during the pre-exposure period may lie in the relatively unstable disease
status of patients, the actual reasons will need to be elucidated by further studies. The risks during the exposure
to the treatment could reflect a composite consequence of patients’ unstable disease status, effects of medications
on relieving neuropsychiatric symptoms, and side effects of medications. For example, some side effects of
antipsychotic medications such as orthostatic hypotension, sedation, and extrapyramidal symptoms could
increase the risks of falls and fractures, while others such as immobility, drowsiness or being bedridden could
reduce these risks. However, these explanations are based mainly on clinical observations, and could not be
exhaustively tested in the current study. Future studies considering the severity of major NCD (e.g., Mini Mental
State Examination scale or Clinical Dementia Rating scale) and patient reported information might provide a
better platform to address these issues.
(Conclusion)
The incidence of falls and fractures was especially high in the pre-exposure period, suggesting that some factors
other than the medications, such as underlying diseases, should be taken into consideration when evaluating the
association between the risk of falls and fractures, and the use of ChEIs and antipsychotic medications. The
exposure periods were also associated with higher risk of falls and fractures compared with the non-exposure
period, although the magnitude was much lower than during the pre-exposure periods. Prevention strategies and
close monitoring of risk of falls are still necessary until there is evidence that patients have restored to a steady
status.