may the force be with you: understanding market forces and how they are relevant to planning
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May the Force Be With You: Understanding Market Forces and How They are Relevant to Planning. Becky Knudson: Household Travel Demand Denise Whitney: Land Use Development Christina Fera-Thomas: Traffic Flow Oregon Planning Institute Statewide Planning Conference 2008 - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
May the Force Be With You:May the Force Be With You:Understanding Market Forces Understanding Market Forces and How They are Relevant to and How They are Relevant to
PlanningPlanning
Becky Knudson: Household Travel DemandDenise Whitney: Land Use Development
Christina Fera-Thomas: Traffic Flow
Oregon Planning Institute Statewide Planning Conference 2008
Friday, September 12, 2008
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
May the Force Be With You:May the Force Be With You:Understanding Market Forces Understanding Market Forces and How They are Relevant to and How They are Relevant to
PlanningPlanning
Becky Knudson: Household Travel Demand
Oregon Planning Institute Statewide Planning Conference 2008
Friday, September 12, 2008
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
OverviewOverview
• Households as economic engines– Participate in “activities”
• Budgets constrain activity levels– Multiple needs to satisfy within a budget
• Activity generates travel– Travel is a derived demand
• Land use attracts travel– Business location affects travel patterns
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Households are Economic Engines Households are Economic Engines • Households participate in
activities– Provide labor for production– Spend income to purchase
goods and services• Activities generate travel
– Trips to work– Trips to shop– Trips for recreation– Trips for HH production
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Household Consumption is 70% of Household Consumption is 70% of EconomyEconomy
Labor
Income
Produce Consumption Goods
Buy Goods & Services
Recreation
Travel Demand Derived from Household Activity
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Household Activity Constrained by Household Activity Constrained by BudgetBudget
• Households adapt spending patterns• Shift spending from one category to
another to meet their goals• Consumer Expenditure Survey provides a
look into household budgets and spending patterns
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Consumer Expenditure SurveyConsumer Expenditure Survey
• Bureau of Labor Statistics sponsored• Conducted by Census Bureau annually
– Diary survey – two weeks, and– Interview survey – previous three months
• Used to construct the Consumer Price Index
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Budget Categories & ResultsBudget Categories & Results• Housing• Household operations• Transportation• Food• Utilities• Health care• Apparel• Entertainment• Misc.
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Consumer Expenditure Survey 2006 Household Spending by Budget Category
Housing 33%
Utilities 7%HH Ops 8%
Transport 17%
Health Care 6%
Apparel, etc. 4%
Entertainment 5%Misc. 8%
Food 12%
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Consumer Expenditure Survey 2006 Household Spending by Budget Category
Utilities 7%HH Ops 8%
Transport 17%
Health Care 6%
Apparel, etc. 4%
Entertainment 5%Misc. 8%
Food 12%
Housing 33%
Housing costs include: rent, mortgage principle and interest, property tax, maintenance, and insurance.
Year 2000 housing was 31% of disposable income
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Consumer Expenditure Survey 2006 Household Spending by Budget Category
Housing 33%HH Ops 8%
Transport 17%
Health Care 6%
Apparel, etc. 4%
Entertainment 5%
Misc. 8%Food 12%
Utilities 7%
Utility costs include: electricity, natural gas, heating oil, telephone, water
Year 2000 utilities were 6% of disposable income
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Consumer Expenditure Survey 2006 Household Spending by Budget Category
Housing 33%
Utilities 7%HH Ops 8%
Transport 17%
Health Care 6%
Apparel, etc. 4%
Entertainment 5%
Misc. 8% Food 12%
Food costs include: food out of home and food at home
Year 2000 was 13% of budget
Year 2000 at home food was 59% of food budget, Year 2006 is was 56% of food budget
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Consumer Expenditure Survey 2006 Household Spending by Budget Category
Housing 33%
Utilities 7%HH Ops 8%
Health Care 6%
Apparel, etc. 4%
Entertainment 5%Misc. 8%
Food 12%
Transport 17%
Transportation costs include: vehicle purchase, fuel & oil, maintenance and repair, financing, insurance, licensing
Year 2000 vehicle purchase was 46%, Year 2006 it was 40%
Year 2000 gas & oil were 17%, Year 2006 they were 26%
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Household Activity Can be Household Activity Can be SimulatedSimulated• Household surveys provide information
used to create models representing regional travel patterns– Oregon Household Activity Survey 2008
• Travel demand models and traffic simulations are tools designed to represent household travel behavior– THE MODELS WORK! Analysis conducted by
TPAU over ten years ago accurately predicted travel patterns we observe today
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Land Use Affects Household TravelHouseholds travel …
to businesses to work, shop, eat…
Land use patterns affect travel•Housing density •Business locations
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Example Case Study – Placer Vineyards Example Case Study – Placer Vineyards (Sacramento, CA Area)(Sacramento, CA Area)
• 5200 acre site on edge of UGB• Three alternative proposals
– “Blueprint” higher density alternative with 21,000 households
– Two lower density alternatives with 14,000 households
• Designed to evaluate “Where will the growth go and what are the effects?”
Example from “Integrated Planning and Connected
Models” Gordon Garry, SACOG, 5th Oregon Symposium on Integrating Land Use and Transport Model, June 2008
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Example Case Study – Placer Vineyards Example Case Study – Placer Vineyards (Sacramento, CA Area)(Sacramento, CA Area)
• 5200 acre site on edge of UGB• Three alternative proposals
– “Blueprint” higher density alternative with 21,000 households
– Two lower density alternatives with 14,000 households
• Designed to evaluate “Where will the growth go and what are the effects?”
Example from “Integrated Planning and Connected
Models” Gordon Garry, SACOG, 5th Oregon Symposium on Integrating Land Use and Transport Model, June 2008
•PLACE3S, an acronym for PLAnning for Community Energy, Economic and Environmental Sustainability, is an innovative planning method that fully integrates focused public participation, community development and design, and computer-assisted quantification tools (GIS) to help communities produce plans that retain dollars in the local economy, save energy, attract jobs and development, reduce pollution and traffic congestion and conserve open space.
•http://www.energy.ca.gov/places/
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Example Case Study – Placer Vineyards Example Case Study – Placer Vineyards (Sacramento, CA Area)(Sacramento, CA Area)
• 5200 acre site on edge of UGB• Three alternative proposals
– “Blueprint” higher density alternative with 21,000 households
– Two lower density alternatives with 14,000 households
• Designed to evaluate “Where will the growth go and what are the effects?”
Example from “Integrated Planning and Connected
Models” Gordon Garry, SACOG, 5th Oregon Symposium on Integrating Land Use and Transport Model, June 2008
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Higher density: 21K households
Daily VMT: 920K (18% - 22% lower)
Person trips bike/walk/transit: 8%
Person trips private auto: 91%
DVMT per HH: 43
2 Lower density scenarios: 14K households
7K households placed in most likely area
Daily VMT: 1120K - 1180K (22% - 28% higher)
Person trips bike/walk/transit: 4.8% - 5.3%
Person trips private auto: 93.5% - 93.9%
DVMT per HH: 55
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Results from Sacramento Results from Sacramento StudyStudy
• Higher density land use resulted in– Less VMT– Fewer emissions– More bike/walk/transit – Provided more green space
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
ConclusionsConclusions
• Each household represents a unique set of activities and strategies designed to satisfy needs and desires
• Effective transportation planning supports household activity while conserving public resources
BUT• Households represent one piece of the
travel puzzle – trip generators
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Land Use DevelopmentLand Use Development• Business attracts activity
– Workers– Customers– Shipping goods/services– Receiving goods/services
• Land use patterns are determined by another set of market forces
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
May the Force Be With You:May the Force Be With You:Understanding Market Forces Understanding Market Forces and How They are Relevant to and How They are Relevant to
PlanningPlanning
Denise Whitney: Land Use Development
Oregon Planning Institute Statewide Planning Conference 2008
Friday, September 12, 2008
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Household & Employment Activities Need to Be Household & Employment Activities Need to Be LocatedLocated
Labor
Income
Produce Consumption Goods
Buy Goods & Services
Recreation
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Where Land Use and Real Estate Development Begin:Where Land Use and Real Estate Development Begin:Opportunity to Meet Market NeedOpportunity to Meet Market Need
Land Speculator
Predeveloper(private or public)
Land/Real Estate Developer
Property Owner
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Market Forces
Viable Location(s)
Public
Local & State Govt.
Clients:users
investorsbuyers Development
Team
Project Idea:opportunity to meet need
Developers Juggle Many ConsiderationsDevelopers Juggle Many Considerations
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Market Forces (national, regional)Market Forces (national, regional)
• Employment and industry trends
• Population and demographic trends
• Real estate market trends
• Development trends
• Capital markets
• Commodities markets
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Viable Location (factors in site selection)Viable Location (factors in site selection)
• Physical features • Transportation• Price of the land• Zoning • Utilities• Government services/costs • Local attitudes• Local market forces
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Considerations by Development TypeConsiderations by Development Type
Industrial
Office
• Accessible and desirable location• Adequate site size and configuration to meet
building design and parking needs• Access to technological infrastructure
• Transportation linkages (shipping time is money)• Adequate site size and configuration with room to grow• Utilities with sufficient capacity to handle requirements • Avoiding conflicting land uses• Proximity to resources and housing
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Considerations by Development TypeConsiderations by Development Type
• Sufficient population/households with right income and demographic mix within market area
• Visibility and traffic (pedestrian or auto)• Accessible site of sufficient size
• Amenities such as neighborhood parks and schools• Availability of transit• Proximity to freeway access and/or employment nodes• Proximity to shopping districts
Retail
Residential
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Project Feasibility and the Bottom LineProject Feasibility and the Bottom Line
Condominium Pro Forma
Retail Trade Area – Market Study
Bottom Line: Does it pencil?
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
A Project Occurs Only if Pieces Come Together
within Developers Planning Time Frame
Location
Financing & Feasibility
Market Need
People
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Understanding Market Forces & Understanding Market Forces & Development Basics Makes for More Development Basics Makes for More
Effective PlanningEffective Planning
Incentives –
Zoning –
Fee Structures –
Community Expectations –
Transportation Facilities –
Work best when project is close to being feasible and incentive can nudge it into profitable range.
Can be more effective when recognizing desirability of locationsand site needs by development type.
That recognize developers need for certainty upfront are more likely to capture funds without inhibiting growth.
Can be more realistic when market influences on development/redevelopment are acknowledged.
Understanding the influence of market forces on land use and travel patterns leads to better transportation facility planning.
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Market Forces Affect Traffic Market Forces Affect Traffic FlowFlow
Christina Fera-ThomasTransportation Analyst
Transportation Planning Analysis UnitSeptember 12th 2008
May the Force Be With You:May the Force Be With You:Understanding Market Forces Understanding Market Forces and How They are Relevant to and How They are Relevant to
PlanningPlanning
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
ODOT Responsibility to Maintain ODOT Responsibility to Maintain State-Owned FacilitiesState-Owned Facilities
• Improve safety• Maintain an efficient roadway system• Meet FHWA standards and guidelines
for highways on the interstate system• Provide Connectivity
– Throughout the state– To local areas
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
ODOT Responsibility to Maintain ODOT Responsibility to Maintain State-Owned Facilities-cont’State-Owned Facilities-cont’
• Move goods and people efficiently• Consider all modes: auto, bicycle,
pedestrian, rail, ect• Improve livability to communities• Support for economic prosperity and
opportunities
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Overview of the Analysis Overview of the Analysis ProcessProcess• Determine Study Area• Collect data• Develop Volumes• Analyze Alternatives
40040 390
405
85855
20
795
45
90
70
35
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Determine Study AreaDetermine Study Area
• Generally larger than the project area because:– Nearby facilities may be affected – Roadways outside of immediate project
area may end up being part of a build alternative
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Study Area
Project Area
Interchange
Determine Study AreaDetermine Study Area
Count Locations
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Collect DataCollect Data
• Obtain Signal Timing Sheets• Collect field inventory
– Lane/crosswalk/shoulder widths– Turn bay lengths– Detector positions– Signal Operation– Miscellaneous observations
• Request Counts– Full Classification– 16 hour
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Develop VolumesDevelop Volumes
Design Hour Volumes• Seasonally adjust (if necessary)• Apply Growth Factor (if necessary)
– Historical– Model
• Balance System40040 390
405
85855
20
795
45
90
70
35
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Develop VolumesDevelop Volumes
Future Volumes/Build Volumes• Apply Growth Factor
– Historical – Model– Cumulative
• Balance• Create build model scenario if:
– Model is available– Traffic patterns will be affected
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Analyze AlternativesAnalyze Alternatives
• Use of Synchro/Simtraffic or comparable software
• Compare performance of no-build and build alternatives to mobility standards
• Determine lengths of queues and their affect on the system
• Report additional performance measures
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Case Study - Home DepotCase Study - Home Depot
• Home Depot Built within the project area– First Home Depot in Model Area as well as the
county• Only one other Home Improvement Superstore
within the model area• Will pull trips from the entire model area and
beyond– Model Scenarios will need to include Home Depot
which will show:• Any increase of trips within the study area• How trips have been redistributed amongst the
major roadways into the study area
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Case Study - Home DepotCase Study - Home Depot
• Model Outputs would be used to create new volumes that include the development
• Analysis of the new volumes would show the affect Home Depot has on the system
• Depending on the affects; the developer may be required to assist with the project costs
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Case Study - Home Depot
8 Miles
Transportation Planning Section, Transportation Development Division
Questions?Questions?
Answers:Becky [email protected]
Denise [email protected]
Christina [email protected]