ASSEMBLYMAN

JOSEPH D. MORELLE, CHAIR JMONROE COUNTY DEMOCRATIC COMMITTEE

PRESENTS

STRATEGIC CAMPAIGN PLANNING & STRATEGIC CAMPAIGN PLANNING & IMPLEMENTATION

Monroe County Democratic Committee • 1150 University Ave Bldg 5 Rochester, New York 14607 • (585) 232-2410 • (585) 232-1223 Fax

www.monroedemocrats.com

Political Campaigns

The Art of communicating effectively (persuasively) and efficiently with a given y y gelectorate in order to get enough of them to act in such a way (register, turn out, vote for, vote

i t t ) t d i t f against, etc.) as to produce a victory for a question or candidate.

Campaigns Are Lost Campaigns Are Lost Because of a Because…….of a

Failure to Failure to Communicate!

C i PlCampaign Plan

Th R ti l F kThe Rational Frameworkvs.vs.

The W.A.G.

The Big Six1. What are we going to do?2. Why are we doing it?3 Wh i d i ?3. When are we going to do it?4. Where are we going to do it?5. Who’s going to do it?6. How much does it cost?

Develop Your StrategyHow you will win the election

Define Your GoalsDefine Your Goals1. Persuading undecided2. Keep support you have3 T t t3. Turnout your support4. Disregard those who are not with you5. Avoid glongs

Identify Your Message Delivery System (Tactics)(Tactics)

1. The candidate2. Other people3. Mail 4. Phones5. Print6. Display7 Broadcast7. Broadcast

Manage Scarce Campaign Manage Scarce Campaign Resources

1. Time2. Money3. People

ResearchResearch“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a

hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle ” ` succumb in every battle.

- Sun Tzu, The Art of War

Who’s out there? - Demographics

What’s their politics? - Targeting

What do they care about? - Polling

Who are the candidates? Gold and SkeletonsWho are the candidates? - Gold and Skeletons

What’s the message? - ThemeWhat s the message? Theme

DemographicsKnow Your Audience Who’s out there?Know Your Audience – Who s out there?

- PollingOther Sources- Other Sources

o Voter Fileo Census Datao Marketing Reportsg po Centers of Influenceo Disciplined Observation

Targeting - Targeting Helps…….1. Determine Tendencies2 A h i “ h ”2. Answer the question “where”:

o Candidate Walkso Place Lawn Signso Send Mail

C io Canvassingo GOTV

3. Guides scarce resources to target groups where there is the greatest potential for success:p

o Gender o Ageo Voting Frequencyo Registrationo Other

TargetingT ti T k #1 D t i V t N d d t • Targeting Task #1 – Determine Votes Needed to Wino Using like years determine projected turnouto Using like years determine projected turnouto Multiply current registration by projected turnout percentageo Divide by 2 and add 1 = Votes Needed to Win

lExampleTotal Registered Voters in District: 10,000 x Average Turnout: 53% = 5,300

5,300 ÷ 2 = 2,650 (+1) =

2,651 Votes Needed to win

Targeting• Targeting Task #2 – Find the Persuadable Voters

Subgroups within the Target:Subgroups within the Target:o Blanks/Independents

o Republican Femaleso Republican Females

o Republican Seniors (over 65)

Targeting• Targeting Task #3 – Develop the Target Group

(Getting to 2,651)Total Enrollment: Reps 5,000 Dems 4,000 Blanks 1,000

Likely Dem Turnout multiplied by projected vote % = # of voters 2 120 x 85% = 1 8022,120 x 85% = 1,802

Likely Rep & Blank Turnout in top 15 persuadable EDs:2,485 x 35% = 869

1,802 + 869 = 2,671

Issues & Attitudes - What do they care about?o Sources

1 N St i1. News Stories2. Letters to the Editor3. Editorials4. Media “polls”

o Elected Officialso Elected Officials1. Communications2. Opinions

o Validated Observations1 C did t C ti ith t1. Candidate Conversations with voters2. Campaign Conversations

e.g. “The big issue is taxes”Validations:o Attendance at budget hearingo Attendance at budget hearingo School budget referendao Tax Grievances

Candidate & Opposition ResearchStrengths & Weaknessesg

The Single Most Important Ingredient – Accuracy

o Applies to you and your opponent1. Unpopular votes and acts2. Popular votes and acts3 H iti l V t3. Hypocritical Voters

Candidate & Opposition ResearchStrengths & WeaknessesStrengths & Weaknesses

o Effective / Ineffective Performance1. Attendance2. Promised vs. Delivered3. Gots List

o Personal conduct that relates to public performance1. Tax payments2. Voting History3 B i P i3. Business Practices

What Is The Message?Message = Themeg

o Message (Theme)o Strategy (Goals)o Tacticso Tacticso Plan

What Is The Theme?1. Central Idea around which all communication revolves

2. The test you want voters to apply to the election

3. It is the rationale for your candidacy – why they should vote for you in this election

4. It implies why they should not vote for your opponent

Things That Are Not a Message or ThemeB do Buzzwords

o Slogans“Time For a Change”“Are You Ready for Nicoletti”Are You Ready for Nicoletti“Keep on Zimmering”

o Issues- Jobs / EconomyJobs / Economy- Education- Health Care- Taxes- Crime- Crime

Memorable [and not so memorable] Themes

Are you better off than you were four years ago? – Ronald Regan

Mario Cuomo ,Too Liberal Too Long – George Pataki

Putting People First – Bill Clinton

Let America Be America Again John KerryLet America Be America Again – John Kerry

Her only special interest is you. - Gail Schaffer

We can do better. – JFK

Characteristics of a Good Theme1. Clear – Don’t make the voter think about what you really mean2. Concise – Should be expressed in a single sentence, or a short

paragraphp g p3. Compelling – It should speak to the values and concerns of the

voters4 Contrasting – It should lay out the differences between you and 4. Contrasting It should lay out the differences between you and

your opponent5. Credible – It must be believable; you need to demonstrate the theme

Develop Your Campaign Message Step-by-Step

Demographic profile of your constituency

Attitude profile of the votersAttitude profile of the voters

Coalition Profile (Target Group)

Make a list of you and your opponents strengths and weaknesses as candidates

Clinton ’96 Dole ’96

Strengths Strengths

•Youth•Compassionate/Caring about people•White House Experience•Economic Improvement

•Legislative Skills•Governmental Experience•Integrity•Certain Issuesco o c p o e e t

•Certain Issues•Persuasive

Ce ta ssues•Military Heroism

Weaknesses Weaknesses

•Slick, corner cutter, not believable•Lack of moral compass•Certain Issues•Inconsistent, lack of core belief

•Age•Mean image•Insider•Certain Issues

•Lack of military experience •Legislative compromiser/Flip flops on issues/inconsistent record

Developing Your Campaign Message Step-by-Step

Draw lines of distinction between candidates “Mirror Opposite” strengths and weaknesses and “Stand Alone” strengths and

weaknesses

Craft Message

Test Message: Questions to Ask

Does Your Message Answer the Following g gQuestions…

Why does your candidate want the job and what will (s) he do with it?Why does your candidate want the job, and what will (s) he do with it?

Why is your candidate better than the opposition for the job?

What issues support the need for your candidate’s election?

Test the Messageg1. Appeal to the targeted groups2 Full advantage to mirror opposites2. Full advantage to mirror opposites3. Unique message? Too generic? Is it big enough, loud enough, and

obvious enough?4 Is your candidate a credible messenger for the message?4. Is your candidate a credible messenger for the message?5. Does it help to inoculate your weaknesses?

Summary 1. The theme pervades every part of your plan2. It evolves from the broad pictures you have developed of your

candidate the voting public and your oppositioncandidate, the voting public, and your opposition.3. It should demonstrate your candidate’s strengths contrasted with

your opponent's weaknesses.4 It should speak to the values of your voters4. It should speak to the values of your voters.5. It is the rationale for your campaign

One Last Word on Message…

Stay on message; if it’s not on message,

it’s off!it s off!

StrategyStrategy“Strategy is the art of making use of time and space.”

- Napoleon Bonaparte p p

Strategygy1. Themes answer the question: Why are you running?2. Strategy answers the question: How will you win?gy q y

Broad strokes defining what your candidate needs to do in order to win the campaign Using a combination of electoral results, to win the campaign. Using a combination of electoral results, turnout, and polling data , try to determine those actions that will increase votes for your candidate. Each of these actions is a “goal;” collectively these goals are your strategy.y g y gy

Strategy Points Used Most Often In Winning Campaigns

1. Targeting the base vote plus a given percentage of other “persuadable” votersg g p g p g p2. Creating a clear contrast between you and your opponent3. Building a diverse coalition of voters into a single voting block4. Overwhelming the opposition with campaign activities5. Creating a negative image of your opponent6. Creating a positive image of your opponent7. Building an organization capable of delivering a significant number of votes8 Dividing voters along ideological lines8. Dividing voters along ideological lines

T tiTactics“Good tactics can save even the worst strategy. Bad tactics will destroy even the best strategy.”y gy

- General George S. Patton

TacticsoMail Plan oPhone PlanoPhone PlanoWalk PlanoEarned/Paid Media

Message Vehicles In Low Visibility Campaigns1 I P1. In Person:

o The Candidateo The candidate’s spouse, adult children, parents, siblingso Volunteers

Surrogateso Surrogates2. On the Phone:

o The candidateo The candidate’s spouse, adult children, parents, siblings

V lo Volunteerso Surrogates

3. Direct Mail4. Display advertisingp y g

Delivering the Message1. Following the plan

2 Working from election day backwards2. Working from election day backwardso Generally focus on persuadables (swing districts) and blank’s closest to election

dayo Seniors and Democrats early on

3. Stay on message

4 Make it easy on the voter4. Make it easy on the voter

Candidate Activity

o Door-to-Door: Maximize the Impacto Candidate Coffeeso Candidate Coffeeso Forums & Debates

Direct Mail1. Follow the Plan

2 W k f El i D b k d2. Work from Election Day backwardso Clearly stateo Dominateo Illustrateo Validate

Direct Mail3. Direct the Mail to the target group or segments within the target

group.

4. Types of Mail:o Target Group Mailg po Segments of the Target Groupo Friend to Friendo Interest Group Mail (seniors vets etc )o Interest Group Mail (seniors, vets, etc.)

Sample Direct Mail Plan MatrixPiece Target Topic Count 

(HH’s)

Cost Write 

Date

Print Date Mail Date  

(HH s) Date

Bio DistrictWide (D, R, I, B, WF, C)

Introduction 4,883 $2002.03 10/4 10/7 10/10

Seniors All 65+ Healthcare /  Quality  1,147 $470.27 10/12 10/15 10/16of Life

Prime Democrats

DemocratsDemocratic Values

2,165 $887.65 10/20 10/23 10/24

Education Semi‐PrimeDems, 

Children / Education 2, 421 $992.61 10/23 10/26 10/28

Republican Women

Jobs Ds, Bs, Is, WFs

Economic Development

2,739 $1122.99 10/28 10/31 11/1

Total

$5475.55

Direct Mail Tips1. Research tells us the average American receives more than 1,000

messages a day.

2 C t h t ll th t t k t 2. Current research tells us that new messages take up to seven repetitions to break through the clutter.

3. A message is only conveyed if it is read and you’re competing with g y y y p glots of other messages so design is important

4. Communications research tells us 4 out of 5 readers don’t go b d h t ti d h dlibeyond photo captions and headlines

Direct Mail Tips

5. Five photos every candidate should have:o Portrait / headshoto Portrait / headshoto Familyo Community Serviceo People / Constituentso Message

Direct Mail Tips6. Get the message in the headline

7 Keep it brief7. Keep it brief

8. Avoid overstating

9 Fight boredom9. Fight boredom

10. Seed the mailing list

Mail Sample 1

Mail Sample 2

Display Advertising For Local Low Visibility Campaigns

JUST LAWN SIGNS!!No BillboardsNo Billboards

No Bumper StripsNo ShirtsNo Pens

No Note Pads

The Phone CanvassVoter Identification & GOTV

HH’s x 65% = Calling Hours NeededAverage 15 Calls Per Hr

Voter Identification & GOTV

1. Call the target group

3070 HH’s x 65 = 133 HrsAverage 15 Calls Per Hr

Divided by 2 Hrs

2. Start the night the first direct mail piece arrives

133 = 672

Divided by the number of days until election 

3. Determine the number of callinghours needed to sweep target

eve

67 = 5.512

The Phone Canvass1. Mark the sheets simply yes, no, or undecided2. Follow-up options for undecided voters

o Note from the volunteero Late mailing to all undecided voters

3. Start with Democrats4. Finish with Republicans and Blanks

GOTV1. Robo Calls

2. Election Eve lit dropp

3. Call only ID’d favorable voters

4. Blind pull unidentified Dems only if canvass produces near 70% 4. Blind pull unidentified Dems only if canvass produces near 70% favorable rates

5. Coordinating with Democratic Poll Inspectors

Managing Campaign Resources1 Time1. Time

o Scarcest Resourceo Work Backwardso Match campaign communications with voter’s attention and decision making

2. Money - Budgetingo Develop from the plano Cost out all campaign activitieso Ideal vs Alternativeo Ideal vs. Alternativeo Develop fundraising plan and schedule to match

3. Peopleo Develop from the plano Estimate how many “volunteer” hours needed for each campaign activityo Develop plan for recruiting and managing people

When Do Voters Start Paying Attention & When Do They Decide Attention, & When Do They Decide

Who They Will Vote For?

When Do Voters Decide?1. Pay attention / decide early

o Seniorso More informed voterso More partisan & straight ticket voters

2. Pay attention / decide lateo Voters under age 35, college studentso Less-informed voterso Blanks, ticket splitterso Absentees o Absentees

Election DayElection Day"There is only one decisive victory: the last ""There is only one decisive victory: the last.

- Karl von Clausewitz, On War…

MCDC Campaign Services -What we can do for !you!

One of the reasons for MCDC’s success is the personal pride we take in helping campaigns accomplish their objectives through mail literature and helping campaigns accomplish their objectives through mail, literature, and auto-dialers. We provide you with the latest technology and the most cutting edge ideas when developing your product. Our innovative formula for success has been the main element in delivering a strong Democratic message in Monroe County and Western New York. In this age of ever evolving campaign tactics and strategy it is imperative to be at the top of the game.

We Provide all the Information & Services You NeedYou Need

1) Mail Piece Design

2) Distribution Universe 

3) Printing

4) Distribution

Direct MailDirect mail and literature distribution in one of the most important promotional aspects of any campaigns growth factor and is a

li bl t t i l d t bli h d t d t th t ll reliable way to retain already established voters and convert that all important swing vote. Campaigns already utilizing direct mail services through MCDC know that we are an innovator in cost effective direct mail and literature distribution campaigns effective direct mail and literature distribution campaigns.

Direct Mail ServicesDesign

Your mail piece is competing not only with every other campaign mailing that is being sent out , but with catalogs, bills, business advertisements, CDs from AOL, and all other items that clutter up a t i l d t ’ ilb T id b i d d i th typical everyday voter’s mailbox. To avoid being dumped in the trash with the latest supermarket circular, your mailing needs to standout. That where we come in. MCDC has taken the time create high impact designs that are incorporated into your direct mail to high impact designs that are incorporated into your direct mail to improve the effectiveness of your message.

Direct Mail ServicesCreation

MCDC has a variety of options and features to help maximize your MCDC has a variety of options and features to help maximize your mail and literature campaigns from a large variety of campaign types to multiple printing options. We have taken the time to create a number of varying mail and literature templates in order to save a number of varying mail and literature templates in order to save you time and money. All of our pre-designed templates meet postal standards and feature a wide variety of subjects and themes.

Direct Mail ServicesPrinting

MCDC offers professional print management services. We can save you time and prevent you from making expensive mistakes. As more businesses outsources, print management services become more invaluable. Printing has become so technical that it’s not always possible for the average person to have the time or the always possible for the average person to have the time or the interest to stay abreast of the changes. Our job is to stay on top of the latest developments and help you select the best way to produce your product.

Direct Mail ServicesDistribution

MCDC is equipped with the tools necessary to not only oversee the q pp y ycreation phase but to also ensure the immediate shipping and delivery of your product. We have taken the appropriate steps to apply our postage codes to all region wide mailings thus allowing us to send bulk direct mailings region and statewide.

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