mcginty poll memo

7/29/2019 McGinty Poll Memo

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GAR INHARTYANG RESEARCH GROUP

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1724 Connect icut Avenue, N.W.Washington, DC 20009

Tel : (202) 234-5570Fax: (202) 232-8134

www.hart research.com

MEMORANDUMTO: Interested Parties

FROM: Frederick Yang

DATE: September 12, 2013

RE: Results Of Late-August Survey Among

Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Voters

From August 27 to 29, 2013, Garin-Hart-Yang conducted a survey among arepresentative statewide sample of 506 likely Democratic primary voters

(margin of error 4.4 percentage points).

The Democratic primary for governor is still very much up for grabs, as otherpublic and private polls show, with a large proportion of undecided voters.While Allyson Schwartz leads in the trial heat because of name recognition,our polling makes clear that, with the dominant issue among primary votersbeing the poor state of Pennsylvanias economy, a candidate with KatieMcGintys unique background of being a job creator AND an environmentalleader will have strong appeal. And in fact, looking to the campaign ahead,our polling is VERY encouraging about Katie McGinty being the exact right fitfor Democratic primary voters once she becomes better known. Her profilescores HIGHEST among all candidates, andshe demonstrates the ability toappeal to a wide swath of the Democratic primary electorate. If the McGintycampaign has the financial resources and support to present their candidatesexceptional background and record, our polling shows that she has the veryreal potential to mount a competitive campaign and to emerge victorious.

Moving behind the trial heat numbers, which largely measure the candidatescurrent name recognition (the one variable that definitely will change overthe course of the campaign), our polling yields four very important findingsfor the McGinty campaign:

(A) Despite never having run for office before, Katie McGintys working-classbackground, her record as a job-creating environmentalist, and herfocus on improving the lives of middle-class families makes her anextremely viable candidate to win the Democratic primary.

(B) Eighty-seven percent (87%) of Democratic primary voters find McGintysunique background (environmentalist AND job creator) to be extremelyappealing. By comparison, only 46% find appeal in the profile ofCongresswoman Allyson Schwartz (who has more than 20 years inelected office, including the past decade in Congress).


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G ARINHAR TYANG RESEARCH GROUP

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(C) The Democratic primary becomes a two-person race between McGintyand Schwartz after voters are read POSITIVE descriptions of all thecandidates. What is particularly surprising is how much better McGintydoes compared with State Treasurer Rob McCord and former StateRevenue Secretary Tom Wolf.

(D)

The race is a dead heat outside the Philadelphia media market, withMcGinty demonstrating across-the-board appeal, including with keyprimary constituencies such as seniors and non-college-educated, blue-collar voters.

The following presents the key data from our survey.

A solid majority of voters are still undecided. Our poll shows that Schwartzhas 51% name recognition, followed by McCord (32%), Wolf (27%), andMcGinty (20%), which mirrors that of other surveys. With her current nameID advantage, it is no surprise that Schwartz has the early advantage in thetrial heat:

Quinnipiac

(June 2013)%

Benenson Poll

(July 2013)%

GHY Poll

(August 2013)%

Schwartz 18 34 25McGinty 5 15 6McCord 4 10 6Wolf 2 11 6Undecided 63 30 57

But here are several important dynamics:

First, a significant proportion of primary voters is still up for grabs, with theQuinnipiac University poll and our survey showing that the MAJORITY of theelectorate are undecided.

Second, while Congresswoman Schwartzs initial advantage is buoyed by hername recognition in the Philadelphia media market, the race outside thePhilly market is a near dead-heat among the four candidates, with fully 69%undecided. And, as the informed ballot test will show later in this memo,Katie McGinty makes the most movement of any of the candidates to lead inthe region outside the Philadelphia market.

Third, our poll shows that while Schwartz has the initial advantage becauseof her name recognition, she has not yet locked down that advantage; forexample, among respondents who RECOGNIZE her name, she garners only43% support, with 42% who are undecided.


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Creating jobs is the most important priority to Pennsylvanias Democraticprimary voters, and we find that Katie McGintys backgroundwhich isunique among ANY of the possible candidates for governoris extremelyappealing to them.

We asked voters their reaction to the followingcandidate types:

22%

40%

57%

NeutralVery favorable Somewhat favorable

Experience creating jobs while protecting environment

High-level experience both in government/business

More than 20 years experience in elected office/including Congress

30%

33%

24%

11%

23%

33%

It is notable that the McGinty-type candidate (creating jobs while protecting

the environment) gets nearly double the positive reaction of the Schwartz-type candidate; and in fact, it scores extremely well among importantsubgroups. For example, the McGinty-type candidate scores 70% VERYfavorable among Schwartz voters (compared with 30% VERY favorabletoward the Schwartz-type candidate), and also receives strong ratings fromPhiladelphia media market voters (66% very favorable), college-educatedwomen (59% very favorable), and liberals (59% very favorable).

Perhaps the best indication of Katie McGintys potential strength occurs afterwe present voters with positive background information about thecandidates, in which McGintys profile scores the HIGHEST and she makesthe most movement of any candidate in the informed trial heat. Thefollowing presents a summary of the profiles we read:

KATIE MCGINTY grew up the ninth of 10 children to a police officer and arestaurant hostess. She served in the White House with President Clinton

and Vice President Gore, where she led on environmental issues. She wasthe first woman to head the Pennsylvania Department of EnvironmentalProtection, where she attracted clean energy companies and a billion dollarsin new investment, and helped create 3,000 jobs. As an executive, McGintyhelped businesses invest and build clean energy and clean water projects

ALLYSON SCHWARTZ is the daughter of a Holocaust survivor who knowsthe importance of public servants doing what's right for people. Her careerbegan as an advocate for women's health care, and then she held electedoffice representing Montgomery County, where she voted for tax breaks,


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helped strengthen investments in education, and voted to bring universalhealth care to our nation. She helped pass the law that establishedPennsylvania's Children's Health Insurance Program, and later helped guideObamacare through Congress

ROB MCCORD is state treasurer and has business experience in the world offinance and private equity. Raised by a single mother, McCord graduated

from Harvard and then managed more than one billion dollars in assets andraised money for young companies that helped create Pennsylvania jobs. Asstate treasurer since 2008, he has used his energy and experience tostreamline operations, cut costs, and find hundreds of millions in wastefulspending. He improved returns in Pennsylvania's investment funds, pensionfunds, and 529 college savings program

TOM WOLF an MIT grad and Peace Corps volunteer, spent 25 years as CEOof a successful family business, then served as head of the Department ofRevenue for Governor Rendell. He returned to his company when he learnedit was on the brink of bankruptcy, and changed the business model so that itcould compete with companies in China while also investing in his workerswith comprehensive health insurance benefits and profit sharing

After hearing the candidate descriptions, we asked voters to rate the appealof each candidates description. Katie McGintys profile scores the highest:

50% 47%

24% 22%

Appeals a great deal Appeals a fair amount

79%

73%

61% 60%

Katie McGinty Allyson Schwartz Tom Wolf Rob McCord

Not only does McGintys profile come out ahead, but she demonstrates theability to appeal to a wide swath of the Democratic primary electorate,garnering 56% great deal of appeal in the Philadelphia media market(including 58% with women in Philly), 54% great deal of appeal amongvoters age 65+ (by far the highest rating of the four candidates), and 61%

great deal of appeal with liberals (just three points below Schwartzsdescription).


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The potential appeal of Katie McGintys candidacy is further evidenced by theinformed ballot test, in which she makes the most movement of any of thecandidates and surges into second place:

Initial

Trial Heat%

Informed

Trial Heat%

Gain

Schwartz 25 36 +11McGinty 6 25 +19McCord 6 9 +3Wolf 6 10 +4Undecided 37 20

McGinty leads outside the Philadelphia market (30% McGinty, 25% Schwartz,13% McCord, and 10% Wolf). While Schwartz still leads in the Philadelphiamedia market, McGinty is a clear second place there. And while Schwartz

has an advantage among college-educated voters, McGintys profile enablesher to lead among non-college-educated voters.

mcginty poll memo

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