Measuring Demographic & Non-Demographic Change in the Aboriginal Population Residing in Urban Areas of Canada

Presentation by:

Andy Siggner & Janet Hagey Housing, Families & Social Statistics

Division

Statistics Canada

For the Annual Canadian Population Society Meetings,University of Manitoba, June 2004

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Estimating the Demographic & Non-Demographic Estimating the Demographic & Non-Demographic Components of Population Growth at the CMA Level Components of Population Growth at the CMA Level for the Aboriginal Populationfor the Aboriginal Population

Using Population Growth Equation:

(P2-P1) = B - D + NM + Residual,

where: P = population at time 1 & 2 B = births D = deaths NM = Net migration Residual = Non-demographic growth

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Deriving the Components of the Deriving the Components of the Population EquationPopulation Equation

Births: Proxy is the Pop. Aged 0-4

Deaths: Proxy is a national Aboriginal crude death rate applied to the mid-period population in the selected CMA

Net Migration: 5-Year net migration derived from the 2001 Census

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The Residual Growth – What is in it?The Residual Growth – What is in it?

Using Census data over two time points, 5-year population growth is calculated for the Aboriginal identity population.

Residual growth is largely a function of:

differential net under coverage between censuses

“ethnic mobility”, i.e. people changing the reporting of their aboriginal affiliation from one census to the next

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At the Canada level, overall Aboriginal population growth is coming more so from non-demographic than demographic factors, 1996-2001.

10 %

10 %

11 %

10 %

33 %

5 %

12 %

2%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Inuit Identity

Métis Identity

North American IndianIdentity

Total Aboriginal IdentityPopulation

Demographic growth Non-Demographic growth

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Growth of the Métis Identity Population, by Province, 1996-2001

73%

34%

22%

25%

125%

2%

352%

280%

100%

20%

5-Yr Growth

4,555

110

825

955

15,560

21,530

45,365

35,855

49,490

25,575

5,480

220

3,135

4,290

15,855

48,340

56,795

43,695

66,060

44,265

- 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000

Nfld./Lab.

P.E.I

Nova Scotia

New Brunswick

Quebec

Ontario

Manitoba

Saskatchewan

Alberta

British Columbia

1996 2001

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(P2-P1) = B - D + NM + Residual

CMAs

2001 Aboriginal

identity population

1996 Aboriginal

identity population

Total growth

 

Pop 0-4 = Est. of Births

Estimate of

Deaths

5-yr Net Migrants (1996-2001)

Demogra-phic

Growth = B-D+NM

Non-Demogra-

phic Factors

Cols. D-H)

Per cent d.t. Non-Demographic

Factors

(Col. A) (Col. B) (Col. C) (Col. D) (Col. E) (Col. F) (Col. G) (Col. H) (Col. I) (Col. J)

Halifax 3,525 2,290

1,235   245 83 210 372 863 70%

Québec 4,130 2,605

1,525   320 96 -235 -11 1,536 101%

Montréal 11,085 9,965

1,120   690 299 -115 276 844 75%

Ottawa - Hull 13,485 11,500

1,985   805 355 385 835 1,150 58%

Toronto 20,300 16,095

4,205   1,615 518 -1,555 -458 4,663 111%

Sudbury 7,385 4,815

2,570   425 173 -20 232 2,338 91%

Winnipeg 55,760 45,750 10,010   6,295 1443 795 5,647 4,363 44%

Regina 15,685 13,605

2,080   2,055 416 -620 1,019 1,061 51%

Saskatoon 20,280 16,160

4,120   2,720 518 515 2,717 1,403 34%

Calgary 21,915 15,195

6,720   2,040 528 1,140 2,652 4,068 61%

Edmonton 40,930 32,825

8,105   4,545 1049 1,810 5,306 2,799 35%

Vancouver 36,855 31,140

5,715   2,840 967 -1,270 603 5,112 89%

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Demographic & Non-Demographic Components of Population Growth in selected CMAs, 1996-2001

7% 9%4% 4% 7% 5%

11% 12% 14%10% 11%

6%9%

-9%-1%

3%

-10%

0% 2%

-5%

3%8% 6%

-4%

38%

59%

8% 10%

29%

49%

10% 8% 9%

27%

9%16%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

5-Yr. Growth from Natural Increase

5-Yr. Net Migration Growth

5-Yr. Growth from Non-Demographic Factors

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Estimate of Aboriginal Population Growth due to Non-Demographic Factors* in selected CMAs, 1996-2001

70%

101%

75%

58%

111%

91%

44%51%

34%

61%

35%

89%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

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A Comparison of the Share of Non-Demographic A Comparison of the Share of Non-Demographic Growth with the Ratio of Non-Aboriginal to Aboriginal Growth with the Ratio of Non-Aboriginal to Aboriginal Median IncomesMedian Incomes in Selected CMAs, 2001 in Selected CMAs, 2001

70%58%

89%

35%34%

61%

91%75%

101%

44%51%

111%

1.43

1.511.491.36

1.721.77

1.50

1.27

1.081.17

1.271.25

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

200%

Gro

wth

Sha

res

(%) &

Rat

ios

( /A

b. P

erso

n)

% due to Non-Demographic Growth in CMAs

Ratio Non-Ab./Ab. Med. Inc. (Age 25-44)

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A Comparison of the Share of Non-Demographic Growth with the Ratio of Non-Aboriginal to Aboriginal Employment Rates, in Selected CMAs, 2001

1.271.221.10

1.621.55

1.311.27

1.071.051.131.141.08

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

% due to Non-Demographic Growth in CMAs

Ratio Non-Ab./Ab Emp. Rates (Age 25-44)

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A Comparison of the Share of Non-Demographic Growth to the Ratio of Non-Aboriginal to Aboriginal Persons Aged 25-44 with a Post-Secondary School Completion, in Selected CMAs, 2001

1.72

1.37

1.13

1.431.49

1.551.551.54

1.29

1.49

1.131.15

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

% due to Non-Demographic Growth in CMAs

Ratio of Non-Ab:Ab with Post-Sec. Compl.

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ConclusionsConclusions

At the national level, demographic growth accounts for just under half the overall increase of 22% in the Aboriginal population, 1996-2001

However, non-demographic factors account for over half the growth. These factors include both: change in the levels of net under coverage between censuses “ethnic mobility”, or changes in how people report their “Aboriginality”

between censuses

Aboriginal non-demographic growth is predominant among the Métis & concentrated east of Manitoba and in B.C.

Non-demographic growth among selected CMAs is largely concentrated in eastern cities like Toronto, Sudbury, Quebec City & Montreal, but it is much smaller in Prairie cities such as Winnipeg, Saskatoon & Edmonton.

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Conclusions cont’d…Conclusions cont’d…

Those CMAs (mostly in the Prairies) with lower shares of non-demographic growth tend to have a wider gap between non-Aboriginal & Aboriginal socio-economic conditions.

Where much of the Aboriginal growth is explained by non-demographic factors, the gap between Non-Aboriginal & Aboriginal socio-economic conditions are much narrower – mostly in eastern cities and Vancouver.

It will be important to monitor these changes in the CMAs over time in order to better understand the socio-economic changes in the Aboriginal population relative to Non-Aboriginal people as well as to themselves.