measuring health system performance: problems and ...accept complexity make selective use of...
TRANSCRIPT
Measuring health system performance: Problems and Opportunities in the Era of Assessment and Accountability
C. David Naylor*,Karey Iron† and Kiren Handa†
*Faculty of Medicine, University of Torontoand
† Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences
Health Care Reform: No Magic BulletsHealth Care Reform: No Magic Bullets
• Incrementalism rules
• Bottom up : improvements in services, measurement–driven
• Top down : policy adjustments, experience/evidence-based
The Health Care Decision-Making TriadThe Health Care Decision-Making Triad
EVIDENCEEVIDENCEEVIDENCE
VALUES or CULTUREVALUES or CULTUREVALUES or CULTURE
CIRCUMSTANCES or CONTEXTCIRCUMSTANCES or CONTEXTCIRCUMSTANCES or CONTEXT
Some Drivers of the MeasurementSome Drivers of the MeasurementMovementMovement
• Fiscal/Management Imperatives• Public Expectations• Ubiquity of Variations and Errors• Rising Stakes: Post-Genomic Technology
Average life expectancy at birth in 13 OECDAverage life expectancy at birth in 13 OECDcountries, 1960-96countries, 1960-96
60
65
70
75
80
85
19601964
19681972
19761980
19841988
19921996
Life
exp
ecta
ncy
at b
irth
Males
Females
WHO 00193
Hurst J. Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 2000, 78 (6)
EXAM QUESTION:EXAM QUESTION:
Health care has only modest effects onHealth care has only modest effects onpopulation health status.population health status.
Should measures of health systemShould measures of health systemperformance include population healthperformance include population healthIndicators as outcomes or as confounders?Indicators as outcomes or as confounders?
PLEASE ANSWER IN 200 WORDS OR LESS…PLEASE ANSWER IN 200 WORDS OR LESS…
Population Health: Major DeterminantsPopulation Health: Major Determinants
Health StatusHealth StatusHealth Status
Health ServicesSystem
Health ServicesHealth ServicesSystemSystem
EnvironmentalEnvironmentalEnvironmental
LifestyleLifestyleLifestyle
GeneticEndowment
GeneticGeneticEndowmentEndowment
Productivity& Wealth
ProductivityProductivity& Wealth& WealthSocioeconomicSocioeconomicSocioeconomic
Measurement Priorities for ProgramsMeasurement Priorities for Programsand Interventionsand Interventions
• Strong evidence for impacts on healthstatus
• High Costs or high risks
• High variation
AMI Patients across income quintileAMI Patients across income quintilein Ontario, Canadain Ontario, Canada
1 2 3 4 5Neighborhood median income quintile
base
line
fact
ors
Nagemale
P < 0.001
Male = 63.1%
Source: Alter et al. 1999
0.75
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
0 91 182 273 364
Time from Acute Myocardial Infarction (days)
Prop
ortio
n of
pat
ient
s su
rviv
ing
0.75
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
0 91 182 273 364
Time from Acute Myocardial Infarction (days)
Prop
ortio
n of
pat
ient
s su
rviv
ing
LowestLowestquintilequintile
HighestHighestquintilequintile
Log-rank test; p<0.001Log-rank test; p<0.001
Survival post-AMI by SESSurvival post-AMI by SES
Source: Alter et al. 1999
Accept complexity
Make selective use of composite measures
Different measures to inform differentstakeholders
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92
94
9593
96
97
98
Number alive
Num
ber d
i ed
Example of Shewhart’s control chart to describe process variation
Mortality ofwomen aged 65 + in2 UK towns,1992-98
� Mortality by year ofDr. Harold Shipman’swomen patients
Source: Mohammed MA et al. Lancet 2001
Statistical Significance versusStatistical Significance versusPolicy RelevancePolicy Relevance
• Population health impact
• Budgetary impact
• ‘Identifiable victims’
• Font-size of headlines!
Focus on assembling accurate,reliable, and relevant data
Talk with different audiencesabout their data needs and
concerns before(re-) designing information
systems
Standardize and fill the ‘black holes’ inStandardize and fill the ‘black holes’ inhealth info-structurehealth info-structure
• Standardize definitions of inputs & outputs
• Better characterization of providers, patients,processes, and outcomes
• Address ‘black holes’: I.e. waiting lists, primary/ambulatory care, long-term and rehabservices
Supplement existing data on aproject-specific and time-limitedbasis with clear analytical goals.
Acquire data to follow patients throughepisodes of illness and
across the care continuum
Integrated data can help reducedis-integration of health services
Take advantage of technology andupgrade info-structure
as necessary
HOW…to achieve IMPROVEMENTHOW…to achieve IMPROVEMENT
ALIGN:• Information systems• Performance measures• Reporting systems• Organizational/Professional culture• Implementation mechanisms
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Less than 10 minutes Longer than 20 minutes
Australia Canada New Zealand United Kingdom United States
Length of Most Recent Doctor Visit
43%33%
43%
65%
30%
13%23%
18% 15%
33%
1998 Commonwealth Fund International Policy Health Survey
Respondents reporting time theirdoctor spent with them was too short
23%
14%
14%
15%
13%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
United States
UnitedKingdom
New Zealand
Canada
Australia
23%
14%
14%
15%
13%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
United States
UnitedKingdom
New Zealand
Canada
Australia
1998 Commonwealth Fund International Policy Health Survey
0
5
10
15
20
Limited Moderate Severe
Threat to life from Coronary Blockages
Age 20-64Age 65-74Age ≥≥≥≥ 75
Rel
ativ
e C
AB
G ra
te (N
Y to
ON
)Coronary surgery: OntarioCoronary surgery: Ontario vs vs New York New York
7.3
10.8
16.8
0.8 1.22.2 2.0 2.5
4.5
Percentages of Senior Citizens receivingCardiac Procedures after Heart Attacks in
the United States and Ontario, Canada,1991
* The coronary angiography rates do not include procedures performedon an outpatient basis in either country
ProcedureUnited States
Ontario, Canada Relative Rate
United States
Ontario, Canada Relative Rate
Coronary angiography* 35 6 5 37 10 4PTCA 12 1 8 13 3 5CABG 10 1 8 12 3 4CABG + PTCA 22 3 8 25 6 4
ProcedureUnited States
Ontario, Canada Relative Rate
United States
Ontario, Canada Relative Rate
Coronary angiography* 35 6 5 37 10 4PTCA 12 1 8 13 3 5CABG 10 1 8 12 3 4CABG + PTCA 22 3 8 25 6 4
Tu et al. 1997. NEJM 336 (21):1500-1505
EQUOL GUSTOEQUOL GUSTO
Domains AssessedQuality of LifeFunctional Status
Employment Status/ role functioningSymptoms (chest pain, dyspnea)
Psychological well-beingTime trade-off (QALY)General Health Status
Economics/Resource ConsumptionHospitalizations
Cardiac catheterizationRevascularizationOutpatient care
Source: Mark et al NEJM 1994;331:1130-5
Diminishing Marginal Returnsof Health Care
Resources for Health Care
Hea
lth S
tatu
s
AA
BB
CC
Rating of zerostars for a dozenBritish hospitals
Medical PostOctober 16, 2001
“There has always been a convenient excuse when there is aproblem, but these tables explode the myth once and for all.”
Alan MilburnHealth Secretary
“I worry that strident reporting of a hospital’s weaknesses candent the confidence of the community in its local hospital,adversely affect recruitment and further damage the morale ofclinical staff.”
Peter HawkerChairman, BMA Consultants’ Committee
Medical Post, October 16, 2001
HOW…to achieve IMPROVEMENTHOW…to achieve IMPROVEMENT
ALIGN:• Information systems• Performance measures• Reporting systems• Organizational/Professional culture• Implementation mechanisms
Regulatory Admin/Professional
Market-based
EconomicNon-economic
IncentivesIncentives
MechanismsMechanisms
ActorsActorsConsumersPurchasers/FundersProfessionals/Managers
Measurement and ManagementAssessment and AccountabilityOnwards and Upwards!