measuring nfl team performance by quarterback stats a neural networks approach by david michlig ec...
DESCRIPTION
Data used Collected stats from 46 active quarterbacks in the league Game played, completions, attempts, completion, yards, yards per play, touchdowns, interceptions, fumbles, passser rating, rush attempts, rushing yards, rushing average, rushing touchdowns, and first downs. Number of wins was used as the classes Used seasons where quarterback played in 10 or more games In total, over 200 individual seasons were usedTRANSCRIPT
Measuring NFL team performance by quarterback stats
A neural networks approach
By David MichligEC 539
Teams (and fans) want victories! The quarterback is the leader of the team Typically, the quarterback stays with a team
to play if they have a good season A neural network approach to determining
how the performance of the quarterback affected the overall team performance can make the decision of who to play easier
How important is the quarterback, anyway?
Data used Collected stats from 46 active quarterbacks in
the league Game played, completions, attempts, completion ,
yards, yards per play, touchdowns, interceptions, fumbles, passser rating, rush attempts, rushing yards, rushing average, rushing touchdowns, and first downs.
Number of wins was used as the classes Used seasons where quarterback played in 10
or more games In total, over 200 individual seasons were
used
Project procedure I plan to use pattern classification methods to
determine relationship between quarterback performance and team wins Nearest Neighbor algorithm Maximum Likelihood
Is the quarterback truly the leader of the team, or just another factor?
Initial results
Very low classification rate, which doesn’t look promising.
The confusion matrix, however, shows that although it’s not usually an exact prediction, it is often within a few games of the true record
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100
2
4
6
8
10
12kNN testing rate (no normalization)
k
clas
sific
atio
n ra
te
Future results There are many outside factors that need to
be considered Injuries Quality of the team overall Defense Protection
The quarterback does not have a say in these things!
Based on initial results, however, it seems that although exact classification may not be possible, estimates may be made.