measuring the wealth economy · •human capital, the accumulated skills, and the physical and...
TRANSCRIPT
Measuring the Wealth Economy: Natural & Social Capital
M a t t h e w A g a r w a l a
ESCoE Research Seminar
11 February 2020
ONS, London
@MatthewAgarwala
If citing, please use: Agarwala, M., Coyle, D., Felici, M., Lu, S., Wdowin, J., and Zenghelis, D. (2020)
The hit list.
• Wealth is future-focused
• Missing social capital
• Global economies need global statistics
• On the horizon…
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Stock of ingredients determines the size of the pie.
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The six ‘capitals’ drive growth and prosperityThe Wealth Economy project seeks to augment GDP with a small dashboard recording access to key assets
• Physical assets and produced capital, including access to infrastructure, and to new technologies
• Human capital, the accumulated skills, and the physical and mental health, of individuals
• Intangible knowledge assets e.g. intellectual property, data
• Net financial capital
• Natural capital, the resources and services provided by nature
• Social and institutional capital personal, social, civic relationships
Wonderlane/Unsplash
Wealth embodies the future
• Measuring assets means assessing future value: the future is ‘priced in’
• Not only can new assets be stranded or created, but our understanding of the endogenous development of the economy can itself radically alter our ability to cope with and manage change.
• Statistics are the lens through which we observe the economy: policymakers, businesses and individuals change their behaviour in response to the picture they see through that lens
• What people believe changes shadow prices and behaviour
Indicative fossil fuel range
Measuring social capital
The data and the technique
• Eight waves of the European Social Survey (2002/2016)
• Demographic and socio-economic profile of the individual
• Responses to 10 trust questions: 7 on trust in institutions and 3 on trust in people
• Use PCA to uncover underlying components of trust
The two components
About 50% of total variation
About 15% of total variation
Variations across age, income, and time
Age and time Income and time
Regression coefficients for age and income
Generalised Trust People versus Institutions
-0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
31/40
41/50
51/60
61/100
Second
Third
Fourth
Fifth
Dif
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fro
m r
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gro
up
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
31/40
41/50
51/60
61/100
Second
Third
Fourth
Fifth
Dif
fere
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fro
m r
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gro
up
Chosen by the ISC for Success Metrics Project
Perspectives in wealth accounting
Emissions reduce wealth. But whose?
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Net Exporters
Net Importers
-600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
United States
Japan
United Kingdom
Germany
France
Italy
Brazil
United Arab Emirates
Switzerland
Turkey
Rest of Western Asia
Indonesia
Greece
Ukraine
Taiwan
Kazakhstan
South Africa
India
Russian Federation
China
Millions of tons of CO2
Production - Consumption Based Emissions
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2 ways to calculate country level damage coefficients
RICE Integrated Assessment Model
• Heterogeneous regions
• Modeled relationships
• Assumes we know more than we do about climate-economy interactions
• Autarkic conditions
New Climate Economy
• Country level
• Observed relationships
• Doesn’t assume we understand complex mechanisms
• ‘Baked in’: trade relationships, adaptation over 50 years
Calculating country coefficients: IAMs• IAMS typically work at global scale
• RICE is a regional run of DICE• 13 regions (aggregated to 8 for modelling)
• China & US each constitute 1 region
• 6 remaining regions represent rest of the world
• Countries grouped by political or economic similarity (Nordhaus & Boyer 2000)
Other High Income
JapanAustraliaAruba CanadaIsraelHong Kong
OECD Europe
GreecePortugalFinlandIceland
Middle Income
South KoreaBrazilBarbados
RICE Model assumes no trade
Tricky, if you want to analyze CO2 trade
Share of global emissions: Production Perspective
Share of global emissions: Damage Perspective
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Climate Damages Are Worse
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We can use this.
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£1 trillion
NatCap Asset value 27,500 years saved by vegetation & air
filtration
£78 billion:
500m from green space
£248 million:
Cooling & shading services
Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/environmentalaccounts/bulletins/uknaturalcapitalaccounts/2019 @MatthewAgarwala
Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/environmentalaccounts/bulletins/uknaturalcapitalaccounts/2019
Which assets would you hold?
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This is about capital management
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GrowthStability
Competitiveness
• Depletion adjusted net national income
• Building blocks for economic activity
• Environmental regulation• Transition opportunities• Capital complementarities
• Physical risk• Tipping points• Litigation risk• Transition risk
NatCap accounts inform capital management & macro strategy
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Tax
Borrow
Fiscal Triangle
Spend
• Subsidies• Procurement• Environmental protection• Resource management• Restoration costs• Potential liabilities
• Potential revenues• Vulnerability of current
revenues• Correcting market failures• Incentivising innovation
• Green bonds• Performance bonds• Infrastructure investment
NatCap accounts organize data for planning the fiscal triangle
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