measuring variations causality and causal modelling in the social sciences federica russo...
TRANSCRIPT
Measuring variations
Causality and causal modellingin the social sciences
Federica RussoPhilosophy, Louvain & Kent
2
Overview Locate this work:
Metaphysics, epistemology,methodology of causality
Domain; interest; objective
The guiding questionRationale (vs. definition)
Methodology of research andtypes of arguments
A taste of methodological argumentsStructural equations
A taste of possible objectionsRegularity; Invariance; Homogenous populations
3
Philosophy of causality
MetaphysicsWhat causality/cause is
EpistemologyHow do we know about causal relations
MethodologyDevelop/implement methodsfor discovery/confirmation of causal
relations
4
This work
Epistemology of causality
Domainquantitative social science
Interestcausal reasoning in causal modelling
Objectivedig out a neglected notionin the philosophy of causality: variationvariation
5
The guiding question
When we reason about cause-effectrelations in causal modelling,what notionnotion guides this reasoning?
Regularity? Invariance? Production? ...
Hunting for a rationalerationale
6
Rationale vs. definition
Rationale: a principle/notion/concept underlyingdecision/reasoning/modelling
Definition:A description of a thing by meansof its properties or if its function
Here:hunt for the notion underlying model buildingand model testing: rationale, not definition
7
Methodology of research
Bottom-up rather than top-down
A philosophical investigation that
startsstarts from the scientific practice,
withinwithin the scientific practice raisesmethodological and epistemological issues,
forfor the scientific practice pointsto the path forward
8
The answer
Causal modelling is regimented byCausal modelling is regimented by
a rationale of variationa rationale of variation
9
ArgumentsEmpirical:
Look at informal reasoning in case studies
Methodological:Look at rationale of model building & testingin various causal models
Philosophical:Look at arguments given by other philosophers
Foundational:Look at forefathers of causal modelling
Compatibility:Look at various established philosophical accounts
10
A taste of methodological arguments
Consider a structural equationY = X+
Are there meaningful co-variations between X and Y?
Are those variations chancy or causal?hypothesis testing; invariance; exogeneity
11
Therefore…
Variation is a preconditionwith respect to other notions
E.g.: regularity, invariance
Any role left to those? Yes – constraints:Regularity: often enough Invariance: stability of parameters
Rule out accidental and spurious variations,Grant causal interpretation of variations
12
A taste of objectionsRegularity
Mine is just a reformulation of regularity theory
Only partly true
Regularity is more basic.Not quite: regularity of what?
InvarianceInvariance is more basic.
Not quite: invariance of what?
Homogenous populationsNo variations in homogenous populations.
That’s the point: to make variations emerge
13
Want to know more?Want to know more?