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MARKET OPPORTUNITIES FOR ETHIOPIAN MEAT EXPORTS

A Desk Study

Final Report

Prepared by

Gregory M. Sullivan Advanced Marketing Systems

Littleton, Colorado

Prepared for

Ethiopia Sanitary & Phytosanitary Standards and Livestock & Meat Marketing Program

Texas Agricultural Experiment Station/Texas A & M University System

May, 2007

______________________________________________________________________ Export Market Opportunity Assessment for The Ethiopian Meat Industry

Table of Content Page

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY…………………………………………………………………………….…… 1 I. MARKET OPPORTUNITY ANALYSIS FOR BEEF……………………………………….................. 5

1. The Global Demand for Beef 2. The Ethiopian Beef Market 3. The Beef Market in the Middle East

3.1. Imports of Live Cattle 3.2. Imports of Beef

3.2.1. Egypt 3.2.2. Saudi Arabia 3.2.3. Bahrain 3.2.4. Kuwait 3.2.5. UAE 3.2.6. Qatar 4. The Beef Market in Central and West Africa

4.1. Fresh and Chilled Beef 4.2. Frozen Bone-in and Boneless Beef 4.3. Imports by Countries in 2005

5. North Africa Beef Markets 6. Near East Beef Markets

6.1. Lebanon 6.2. Israel

7. Analysis 7.1. General 7.2. Region and Country Specific

7.2.1. Middle East 7.2.2. Central, West and South Africa

7.2.3. North Africa 7.2.4. Near East II. MARKET OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHEEP AND GOAT MEAT……………..……….…………..… 12

1. The Global Demand for Sheep and Goat Meat 2. The Ethiopian Sheep and Goat Markets 3. The Sheep and Goat Markets in the Middle East

3.1. Live Animal Imports 3.2. Sheep and Goat Meats

3.2.1. Saudi Arabia Market 3.2.1.1. Sheepmeat Products 3.2.1.2. Goat Meat Products

3.2.2. Other Middle East Markets 3.3.2.1. UAE. 3.2.2.2. Kuwait

4. The Sheep and Goat Markets in Central, West and Southern Africa 4.1. Production of Sheep and Goat Meats 4.2. Major Import Markets

4.2.1. South Africa 4.2.2. Mauritius


4.2.3. Ghana 5. North African Markets

5.1. New Zealand Exports to Algeria 5.2. Australia Exports to Algeria

6. Near East Markets 6.1. Jordan

7. Analysis 7.1. Middle East 7.2. Central and West Africa 7.3. North Africa 7.4. Near East

III. MARKET OPPORTUNITIES FOR VARIETY MEATS………………………………...............…… 19

1. The Global Demand for Variety Meats 2. The Domestic Demand for Variety Meats 3. The Variety Meats Markets in the Middle East

3.1. Egypt 3.2. Saudi Arabia 3.2.1. US Exports to Saudi Arabia 3.2.2. Australia Exports to Saudi Arabia 3.2.3. New Zealand to Saudi Arabia 3.3. Yemen

3.3.1. New Zealand Exports to Yemen 3.4. UAE

3.4.1. US Exports to UAE 3.4.2. Australia Exports to UAE 3.4.3. India Exports to UAE

4. The Variety Meats Markets in Central, West and South Africa 4.1. Cote d’Ivoire

4.1.1. US Exports to Cote d’Ivoire 4.1.2. Canada Exports to Cote d’Ivoire 4.1.3. France Exports to Cote d’Ivoire

4.2. South Africa 4.2.1. Australia Exports to South Africa 4.2.2. New Zealand Exports to South Afric

4.3. Congo 4.3.1. Argentina Exports to the Congo

5. The Variety Meats Markets in North Africa 6. Analysis

6.1. Middle East 6.2. Central, West and South Africa IV. CONCLUSIONS AND MARKET RECOMMENDATIONS ………………………..…………..… 23

1. Conclusion 1.1. Industry Rivalry 1.2. Entry of Firms 1.3. Substitute Meat Products 1.4. Buyers in Key Market Areas

1.4.1. Middle East

1.4.2. West, Central and South Africa 1.4.3. North Africa 1.4.4. Neat East

2. Recommendations V. ANNEX…………………………………….....…………………………………………………..… 29 Annex 1. Bibliography Annex 2. MENA Data and Analysis (Initial report – October 28, 2006) Annex 3. The Dubai and Middle East Markets (market report by Andrew Sergeant, private

consultant to World Bank) Annex 4. Data Tables (partial - full set of tables available from the project office)

ACRONYMS CWE Carcass weight equivalent LMM Livestock and Meat Marketing MENA Middle East and North Africa Mt Metric ton SPS Sanitary and Phyto-Sanitary Standards USAID U.S. Agency for International Development


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The livestock and meat industry is evolving as an important contributor to the economy of Ethiopia. Live animal shipments have traditionally been the mainstay of the export industry; however, live animal exports continue to be volatile due to the outbreak of animal diseases, like Rift Valley Fever. In the past five to ten years, the slaughter and export of meat has emerged as an important industry, and meat exports increased from 900 mt in 2000/01 to 8,000 mt in 2005/06. This market research study commissioned by USAID’s SPS-LMM Project assesses the market opportunities for Ethiopian livestock and meat in regional markets. The study provides marketing recommendations for Ethiopian meat exporters. Economic growth is a primary driver of meat demand which results in increased consumption at higher prices, especially for red meats. World meat prices were expected to have softened in 2006 (GIRA). The best performing growth countries have been China and Russia with economic growth rates of 8.7% and 5.6%, respectively. WTO trade negotiations will improve the international meat trade. Beef trade was 7.4 million mt in 2005 which is an increase of 8.8% over 2004, and exports in 2006 are expected to increase 5.6% over 2005. Sheep meat world trade was 1.2 mmt in 2005 and increased 9.4% over 2004; and in 2006, the trade is expected to increase 1.2% (GIRA). This upward trend is positive for Ethiopia’s meat industry. India has seen a pick up in the demand for their meat products in the Middle East, Africa and in the Far East. Their beef and buffalo meat will be very price competitive in markets being targeted by Ethiopian meat exporters.. The rise in the cost of feed grains, partly due to demand for energy, is causing a shift in relative prices for red meat. Feedlot beef producers in parts of the world will experience higher cost of grain, the major input costs. Low cost producing areas using pastures, forages and agro-industrial by-products will see their competitive advantage improve. This development should be beneficial to Ethiopia’s feedlot industry which is using mainly agro-industrial by-products. The export of live animals to the MENA region is important in satisfying meat demand. Outbreaks of animal diseases in the Horn of Africa increase the uncertainty in access to markets for both producers and exporters. Even Australia saw its markets closed for a period over SPS issues. Ethiopia’s livestock and meat industry would benefit from a balanced and diversified supply chain of both live animals and meat.

Segmentation Strategy Market segmentation is playing a more important role in defining business approaches. The “one size fits all mentality” is being replaced by wholesalers and retailers trying to match products with consumer demand. This is truer in MENA countries than in Central and West Africa, but the overall impact of segmentation is increasing in importance. (See Annex for report on fruits and vegetables and the similarity to meat).

Retail The supermarket format is rapidly developing in the MENA region. In the UAE, the supermarket chains account for about 25% of grocery sales, and this is projected to rise to 36% by 2009 (See

______________________________________________________________________ Export Market Opportunity Assessment for The Ethiopian Meat Industry Page 1 of 51

report in Annex). Again, these data do not cover either the small shops or retail markets, so they over-estimate the supermarkets’ importance in the total market. The retail markets are less developed in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait compared to the UAE. The SPS-LMM project will want to understand the dynamics of the market changes and establish contacts with the larger supermarket chains, e.g. Carrefour for meat exporters. It was reported by Belachew that supermarkets identify meat products by their country of origin. Ethiopia exporters have the opportunity to showcase their meat through promotion programs in some of these supermarkets. Merchandising and promotion plans can be developed to establish market share.

Food Service The food service industry takes a portion of consumers’ disposable income spent on food. In the USA this can be as high as 50 percent of consumers’ food expenditures, though the percentages in MENA countries are likely not as high. Food companies are seeking ways to reduce their food costs and particularly their food preparation costs. The SPS-LMM project will find it useful to undertake case study work on food service companies in Egypt, Saudi Arabia , Kuwait and the UAE. It is unlikely that Ethiopian meat products would find a market niche in the high end food service (HRI) trade, e.g. hotels and restaurants. This segment of the market is more likely to be targeted by New Zealand, Australia and USA exporters, selling high quality, grain finished beef. The USMEF (U.S. Meat Export Federation) has market promotion programs for the MENA region to support their $13.0 million meat export trade primarily in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and UAE. It would be valuable for the Ethiopian industry to understand how the USMEF, LMA (Livestock Meat Australia), and the New Zealand Meat Board are targeting customers in the region. The Ethiopian meat industry needs to investigate market segments in the MENA market that would be interested in more value added cuts of meat. This would also include variety meats. Ethiopia meat companies have an opportunity to be a competitive supplier of these kinds of products (bone-in and boneless cuts) to these market segments. The quality and consistency supply will be important factors to be competitive.

Product Opportunities by Regions There were four market regions that were investigated in this desk study: Middle East (GCC plus Egypt); Central and West Africa; North Africa, and Neat East. The largest market for beef, sheep and goat meats, and variety meats is the Middle East market. Frozen products dominate fresh products in all the regions surveyed. The primary product category is boneless product. The beef market in the Middle East was 72,000 mt of fresh and chilled beef at a value of US$ 186 million. Frozen beef imports were 230,000 mt with a value of US$ 332 million. Boneless beef dominates the beef category. Ethiopia has an opportunity to increase their market share by improving their processing and logistics capabilities. The sheep meat market is more diversified than the beef market. Different products fit different market segments. Imports consist of carcass and half carcasses, cuts – bone-in and boneless, fresh or frozen, and sheep, lamb and some goat meat. The preference is for carcasses weighing in the 8 to 13 kg range (Belachew Trip Report, 2006).


The UAE imports $2.24 billion in livestock and meat annually (Belachew, 2006). The country exports $111 million and re-exports $295 million. It is important that Ethiopia exporters take advantage of this important market opportunity for both the UAE market but also as a channel to the other Gulf states. Variety meats consist mainly of edible offal. Egypt is the largest importing country in the region with over 100,000 mt. The US is the major supplier to this market. Saudi Arabia is also an attractive market. The export of edible offal is a product category that holds opportunities for Ethiopian meat companies. Fresh or frozen hearts and livers would be two products of particular interest. The product is relatively easy to clean and process so that specifications can be met in importing markets. Because these are organ meats and Ethiopia does not have a history of using animal by-products or low levels of pesticides, these items would be close to being perceived as organic (or at least natural) by consumers. The SPS-LMM project could promote the advantages of Ethiopian variety meats as being raised under natural growing conditions by smallholder livestock producers who care for their livestock. Market Strategies for the Ethiopian Meat Industry The following market strategies are proposed for the Ethiopian meat industry. 1. Research the retail and food service meat markets in Gulf States including Egypt for beef, sheep

and goat meats, and variety meats. In-country market research using a local company would enhance the Ethiopian exporters’ understanding of future trends in demand and which demographic groups to target. (The databases consulted do not provide enough information on specific market segments and their preferences (fresh, frozen, types of cuts, packaging, etc. In fact, data on MENA markets had to be derived from data presented by the primary export countries and then summed by product categories).

2. Identify a market intermediary, a local service provider (LSP), in each country in the Gulf States,

who has the capacity to enhance market linkages and represent Ethiopian meat companies in penetrating the market segments identified as most promising in no. 1 above. The LSP could be responsible for promoting both generic and branded programs (see #5).

3. Ethiopian meat exporters prepare promotional materials and attend food shows in the region,

such as the International Food Show in Dubai. This activity will lead into the initiation of trial shipments outlined in #4.

4. Initiate trial shipments of experimental products for the market segments with the assistance of

the LSP identified in no. 2. Emphasis would be on value-added products that fit a particular niche, i.e. hotel buffet items (e.g. roasts), cubed meats for shiskabobs or a particular type and preparation of variety meat products.

5. With the help of the LSP, undertake a promotion program, for example running a feature in a

set of hotels or supermarket outlets for a period of time with a generic Ethiopian meat promotion program. Another opportunity would be to develop and feature an Ethiopian meat item for a chain of restaurants in a country.

6. The above items have identified the Gulf States and Egypt region but with the current stalemate

on meat exports to this region, the steps can be applied to one of the other regions: Central-West-South Africa, North Africa, and Near East.


Ethiopia exporters face a situation where demand for their livestock and meat fluctuate from month to month out of their control. A strategy to overcome this problem is to establish business relationships with the final end-users whether retail chains or food service (fast food, hotels or other large institutions) in an effort to by-pass the importers. Once the relationships are established then an importer can be solicited to manage the import protocols if necessary. The tactic to employ is for the project’s market director to travel into selected countries to make the necessary direct contacts. (An initial investigative trip to Egypt and the UAE have been completed.) A local marketing specialist in each market could lay the groundwork before the marketing director arrives. The Middle East is experiencing unparalleled growth in food service due to investments in tourism. There has been double digit growth in the number of hotels over the past two years. (http://www.mla.com.au/topic hierarchy/market information.overseas markets.) This development is affecting the demand for sheep meat. The market was historically frozen carcasses, but the market now wants chilled lamb cuts for the growing food service and retail sectors. To enter these segments directly then Ethiopian processors will have to employ strict food safety measures and control the prevalence of diseases (actual or perceived). Ethiopian exporters will need to implement tactics based on category management principles to improve supply chain performance. Merchandising tactics include: food tasting, new Point-of –Sale (POS) materials, print media advertising, and a video on guaranteed Halal. Some of these activities can begin while the exporters wait for the Gulf market to reopen.


http://www.mla.com.au/topic%20hierarchy/market%20information.overseas

I. MARKET OPPORTUNITY ANALYSIS FOR BEEF The global market for beef is driven by the increase in income, population growth and urbanization, not just in the Ethiopia but in Africa and the Middle East. The distribution of the income will be important to impact on a greater number of lower income consumers. These factors are having positive impacts on the rise in consumption of beef in the target markets. 1. The Global Demand for Beef

The world demand for beef has been on the rise. For the period of 2005 to 2015 global demand will continue to grow but at a decreasing rate. Meat consumption in 2015 is expected to be 316 million metric tons (mmt), an expected 2 percent growth per year. In 2005, beef is the most traded meat after poultry. Traded beef was 7.4 mmt cwe which includes live trade compared to poultry meat of 7.5 mmt cwe. The beef trade increased 5.6 percent in the 2006/05 time period. This increase was slightly lower than the 2005/04 time period of 8.8% increase (IMS – GIRA World Meat Facts Book, 2006).

The world price is expected to decline from its high of $350/100kg in 2005 to around $280/100kg in 2015. In the atmosphere of falling future real prices for beef, then it will be important that there be an emphasis on developing viable commercial industries. The risk of animal disease outbreaks will continue to create added uncertainty in the beef market.

Certain trends are becoming evident that will impact on Ethiopia’s ability to be competitive.

A growing demand for particular cuts that allow for ease of preparation. An increasing requirement by importers for certification, sometimes by third parties outside

the exporters’ country. Greater need for product safety Greater concern for animal welfare The Developed Countries will continue to be the major players in growth in global meat

production and consumption General expectation for less trade restriction (excluding animal health concerns)

There are six major beef exporting countries: Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina, USA, Australia and New Zealand. Brazil exported .243 mmt of fresh and chilled (F&C) beef and 1.2 mmt of frozen beef in 2005 and surpassed Australia (.419 mmt of F&C) and .934 mmt of frozen beef) as the number one beef exporter. Brazil, Uruguay, and Argentina are investing in their meat industries to remain strong and competitive.

During the period of large surpluses of animal products, the EU had a distorting affect on the domestic markets in African countries. Frozen beef, mainly in forequarter cuts, were being dumped in Africa, mainly West Africa. This distorted local prices for livestock and meat. With the enactment of the Central Agricultural Policies (CAP) for the EU, the region’s exports declined to 1.5 mmt in 2005 and is expected to further decline to 800,000 mt in 2015. The EU could be a net importer of 530,000 mt of beef in 2015.

Meat imports are increasing in Asia driven by the effect of rising incomes. The major importers will continue to be South Korea and Japan. It is likely with these large volumes of imports into Asia and other regions, that West and Southern Africa would increasingly become more deficit


in meat. For Ethiopia to be a serious export player, the industry will need to be better integrated and vertically coordinated up and down the value chain.

Countries have certainly used SPS as a highly effective form of protection from the pressures arising from globalization (IMS - GIRA). Middle East countries have been in the forefront in this regard. Ethiopia has experienced this situation in outbreaks in the Horn of Africa and East Africa when the live and meat exports were stopped solely because of association.

2. The Ethiopian Beef Market

The domestic demand for beef in Ethiopia has been rising due to the factors of population growth, urbanization, income growth, demographics and a preference for eating meat including beef. Total consumption of beef is estimated at 298,000 mt in 2002. Consumption has been growing at a rate of 2.6% per year from 1993 to 2000. More recently consumption has been increasing at around 2.25% per year. Estimated per capita consumption is 6 kg/capita in 2002. Based on an estimated average national carcass weight of 108 kg/head [low for cattle with lightest non-veal being 300 kg lvwt and increasingly bulls are slaughtered at 400 kg} the offtake rate is estimated at 7.8% per year. This offtake rate is lower than in other countries in the region. For example, in Kenya, the off-take rate is estimated at 16.1% per year. The average carcass weight for cattle is estimated at 159 kg per year in Kenya.

The Ethiopian beef market is again being impacted by animal health diseases and SPS problems. This adds to major uncertainty for the beef sector. The outbreak of Rift Valley Fever (RVF) has disrupted trade flows.

3. The Beef Market in the Middle East

3.1. Imports of Live Cattle

Australia is the major exporter of live cattle to the Middle East. For the period of 2003 through 2005, Australia exported 96,036 head, 60,319 head and 141,449 head respectively. The average price per head was $735 over the three year period.

The major importer over the period of 2003 to 2005 of live cattle was Israel with 96,000 head. Jordan imported 74,000 head of cattle and Saudi Arabia imported 33,000 head. Other importers were Egypt (14,500 head), Kuwait (11,200), UAE (6,920), Qatar (780), and Oman (1,200). The simple average price for Australian cattle exported to the top four importing countries was $462 per head in 2005. (All export valuation data reported by exporting countries is the FOB price and import valuations are CIF prices.)

Table 1.1. Australian Exports of Cattle to the Middle East, 2003 to 2005

Importing Country

2003 2004 2005 2005 Price / head

US$ (FOB)

Israel 43,213 20,947 32,067 490 Saudi Arabia 15,719 0 17,522 472 Jordan 23,065 34,154 16,980 464 Egypt 7,583 0 6,961 421


Kuwait 2,892 4,048 4,280 911 UAE 2,638 1,465 2,818 1,186 Qatar 326 202 252 523 Oman 600 450 250 1,409 Palestine 6,075 0 0 n.a.

3.2. Imports of Beef

The beef market in the Gulf States is growing and demand is strongest in urbanized areas. In 2005, eight countries in the Gulf Region including Egypt imported 72,000 mt cwe of fresh and chilled beef valued at over $186 million. These same countries imported 230,000 mt cwe of frozen bone-in and boneless beef valued at over $332 million. If Ethiopia could get just 1 percent market share, this would result in $5.20 million in direct impact on foreign exchange. (Note: Ethiopia’s share of boneless chilled beef equals 720 mt cwe at a value of $2,583 and 2,300 mt cwe of frozen beef at a value of $1,442/mt). The additional exports will generate an additional $10 million in indirect economic benefit to the country if a multiplier effect of $2 in domestic value-added services for every $1 in export sales occurs. A 1% market share would require 13,725 head of cattle to be slaughtered for this market (Note: live animal conversion to beef is for 400 kg liveweight cattle with a carcass yield of 55%. Estimated average liveweight is higher than the national average carcass weight.) The export sales would significantly create added value in all the stages from production to export in the marketing chain.

3.2.1. Egypt

The major beef producer in the Middle East is Egypt. It produces around 478,000 mt on a carcass weight equivalent (cwe). Production grew 6.7% per year from 1995 to 2000, and then fell 2.6% per year from 2000 to 2005. The decline was 1.2% in 2004/2005. Egypt is the major importer of beef in the region, importing 208,000 mt cwe in 2005, an increase of 32% over 2004. (GIRA) According to the GTIS database, Egypt imported 200,500 mt of frozen beef which was almost all boneless beef. Brazil, Argentina and India had the lowest price at approximately $1,300/mt. Brazil was the major exporting country to Egypt with around 200,000 mt in 2005 selling at $1,261/mt (FOB Brazil). Egypt imported only a very small amount of fresh or chilled beef in 2005.

3.2.2. Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia imported 90,000 mt cwe of beef in 2005. Imports increased 17 percent per year from 2000 to 2005, though it did decline in 2004/2005 by 9 percent.

According to GTIS database, Saudi Arabia imported 12,419 mt of fresh and chilled beef in 2005. Of this amount, 12,327 mt was boneless. Brazil was the major supplier and the average price was approximately $1,859/mt in 2005. The average price in 2004 was $1,689/mt.

Saudi Arabia imported 78,024 mt of frozen beef in 2005. Brazil and India were the major suppliers, exporting 26,000 mt and 49,673 mt respectively. The average price of the beef was $1,100/mt. Of this total amount of frozen beef, 76,266 mt was boneless cuts of beef with an average price of $1,178/mt.


3.2.3. Bahrain

Bahrain imported approximately 808 mt of fresh and chilled beef at a cost of $3,146/mt. Of this amount, 734 mt was boneless beef at a cost of $3,369/mt. Fresh beef imports were spread across 4 to 5 suppliers. The major supplier was New Zealand with sales of fresh boneless beef at $4,570/mt. The high price of chilled beef in Bahrain compared to KSA is because the volume of fresh beef imported by Bahrain is of higher value cuts with less imports of beef from India or Brazil.

Bahrain imported 4,675 mt of frozen beef at a cost of $3,080. Boneless beef was 3,994 mt at a cost of $3,003/mt. India was the major exporter to Bahrain with 3,297 mt of frozen beef with a cost of $1,024/mt. The next largest supplier was Brazil with exports of 825 mt at a cost of $1,605/mt. The U.S. exported 825 mt of high quality beef at a cost of $3,552/mt.

3.2.4. Kuwait

Kuwait imported 1,563 mt of chilled beef at a cost of $4,482/mt in 2005. Of this amount 1,456 mt was boneless at a cost of $4,407/mt.

Frozen beef imports were 48,367 mt at a cost of $3,365/mt. The major item was boneless beef at a cost of $3,344/mt. India and Brazil were the major exporters to this market.

3.2.5. UAE

UAE imported 7,374 mt of chilled beef at a cost of $4,702/mt of which 6,970 mt was boneless at a cost of $4,905/mt. Brazil was the major exporter to UAE of fresh beef supplying 2,625 mt at a cost price of $2,121/mt.

In 2005, UAE imported 57,518 mt of frozen beef at a cost of price of $2,688/mt and boneless beef was 53,426 mt at a cost price of $2749/mt. India was the major exporter to this market with 48,000 mt at a cost price of $979/mt, which is very inexpensive. Brazil was next with 7,144 mt with a cost price of $1,741/mt. Imports of beef declined in 2005 and have been declining about 7 percent per year from 2000 to 2005. UAE imports a much greater amount of poultry meat than beef so that as the import price of beef has risen, consumers have shifted to cheaper forms of meat protein.

3.2.6. Qatar

An import of fresh beef in 2005 was 1,467 mt at an average cost price of $3,994/mt. Most of the product is boneless beef with 1,272 mt at a cost price of $4438/mt.

Frozen beef imports were 4,790 mt with a cost price of $3937/mt and mostly frozen boneless beef at 3,437 mt at a cost price of $4,002/mt. India is the major exporter with 3,518 mt at a cost price of $1,076 for frozen boneless beef.

4. The Beef Market in Central and West Africa

The Central and West Africa region is gaining importance in the meat trade is Central and West Africa. The main countries are Ghana, Cameroon, Cote d’Ivoire, Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, and Gabon.


4.1. Fresh and Chilled Beef

Imports of fresh and chilled beef in 2005 were approximately 1,044 mt. India supplied the majority of the beef. The price per kg was as low as $795/mt. The beef entering this market is of lower quality and therefore lower price:

4.2. Frozen Bone-in and Boneless Beef

The volume of frozen bone-in and boneless beef was 43,000 mt and the lowest reported price was $786/mt from India. Though this region imports less than the Middle East markets, it still represents a market that is growing as a deficit meat market. Air transport may be the preferred method to reach these markets as cargo capacity may be available.

4.3. Imports by Countries in 2005

Imports of beef by Cote d’Ivoire in 2005 were 8,000 mt cwe. Imports of beef by Gabon were 9,000 mt cwe in 2005, and the Democratic Republic of Congo was 8,000 mt cwe in 2005.

5. North Africa Beef Markets

The major importers of beef in this region are Tunisia, Libya, and Algeria. The imports of fresh and chilled beef in 2005 were 17,000 mt with an average price from Brazil of $3,758/mt and beef from the EU averaged $1,877/mt. The EU price is much lower than supplies from other countries and reflects likely subsidies being paid to exporters. The three countries imported 85,000 mt of frozen beef with the large majority being boneless beef. The average cost per mt was $1,300/mt. The major exporter of frozen beef is Brazil. Ethiopia will face a more difficult time to access these markets at the present time because of EU subsidies and difficulty in logistics to deliver the products.

6. Near East Beef Markets

Three markets in the Near East were investigated for their potential for Ethiopian meat exporters: Israel, Jordan, and Lebanon. (Import data for Syria indicate only small amounts of imports.) Imports of fresh and chilled beef by these three countries totaled 16,600 mt in 2005. The average price was $5,520/mt.

The three countries imported approximately 122,600 mt of frozen beef in 2005. The average price for frozen beef was $3,092/mt. The largest importing country was Israel with 73,700 mt of frozen beef at an average cost of $2,085/mt. Argentina and Brazil were the major exporters. Jordan imported 44,760 mt at an average cost of $3402/mt. India was the major exporter to Jordan. Lebanon imported 4,100 mt with the highest average cost of $3,790/mt.

Brazil exported both fresh and frozen beef to the three countries. The average differential between the higher priced fresh beef compared to the frozen beef from Brazil was $549/mt for the period 2003 to 2005. This is not a large differential compared to supplies from other countries.

6.1. Lebanon


The major importing country for fresh beef was Lebanon with 15,583 mt of beef, and the major supplier was Brazil at an average cost of $1,767/mt. Brazil’s prices to Lebanon increased from $1456/mt in 2003 to $1767/mt in 2005. Lebanon has seen an increase in beef imports of around 7 percent per year from 2000 to 2005.

6.2. Israel

Israel is a major importer of frozen beef receiving supplies from Brazil, Uruguay and Argentina. Imports were 73,000 mt with an average price of $2,085/mt. Argentina was the largest supplier with 36,000 mt. Brazil had the lowest price at $1,338/mt.

7. Analysis

The world beef price is expected to fall as we move toward 2015. What is Ethiopia plan to remain competitive under a scenario of falling prices? Ethiopia will have to do some or all of the following:

7.1. General

1. Improve the supply chain from producers to packers and packers to downstream markets 2. Lower transaction costs at each exchange point in the marketing channels for both live

animals and meat 3. Reduce losses due to mortality and weight loss 4. Transport first more frozen meat and then move into more fresh container shipments of meat

product with longer shelf life. 5. Improve carcass cut out percentages by improving the condition of cattle before slaughter. 6. Conduct market research on the important segments in each country determining the preferred

cuts of beef 7. Boneless beef, whether fresh or frozen, is the major traded product. Ethiopia’s meat processors

will need to invest in the technology and training to increase supplies of boneless beef versus carcass and bone-in cuts.

7.2. Region and Country Specific Recommendations

7.2.1. Middle East

The Gulf States including Egypt is importing the largest quantities of live animals and beef. Urbanization is driving the growth of larger format supermarkets. Ethiopian meat packers will need to develop alliances with these companies to implement needed quality control for assurance of health and standardization of meat.

The Egyptian market is seeing declines in its domestic production of beef. The GOE is actively seeking supply channels (preference is meat for SPS reasons) into Ethiopia and Sudan. The costs of implementing the needed SPS can be high to meet GOE requirements. These costs need to be reduced. Ethiopia will have to compete with low cost frozen beef from Brazil which had a valuation of $1,261/mt (FOB) in 2005. The outbreak of FMD in several regions in Brazil has disrupted their trade. It can be expected that Brazil will work hard to reestablish their trade linkage with Egypt.

7.2.2. Central, West and South Africa


India is a major exporter into this region. With the recent Government of India (GOI) decision to curtail exports until the industry can comply with international SPS protocols, Ethiopia could step in and grab market share. The key markets would be Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Gabon and Ghana. Ethiopia will have to work hard to reduce their air freight costs as India is mainly exporting frozen boneless beef into the countries at a value around $850 per mt (FOB India). The low level of price per mt means that India is shipping by ocean freight.

7.2.3. North Africa

The three main countries imported a total of 30,000 mt in fresh, chilled and frozen beef in 2005. Libya is the most important market receiving two thirds of the imports. Brazil is the dominant exporter to the region and to Libya.

With the proximity to the EU, Tunisia and Libya will have access to subsidized exports of beef easily delivered to these markets. These countries represent a lower priority for Ethiopian meat exporters.

7.2.4. Near East

The two major importing countries in the Near East region are Lebanon for fresh beef and Israel for frozen beef. . Israel is a major purchaser of frozen boneless beef. Ethiopian immigrants have resettled in Israel, and this group of consumers would be a segment to target. Air transport to Lebanon is possible for shipments of beef.


II. MARKET OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHEEP AND GOAT MEAT 1. The Global Demand for Sheep and Goat Meat

World sheep and goat meat production was 13 mmt cwe, and for the period of 2000 to 2005, world’s production has been increasing 2.9% per year. The top three major production countries are Pakistan (.54 mmt), Sudan (.27 mmt) and Nigeria (.25 mmt).

The average world consumption of sheepmeat is estimated at 2 kg cwe per person. ME/NA have some of the highest consumption rates of around 4 kg/cap. Countries with higher per capita consumption would be Uruguay, New Zealand, and Australia.

Major exporters are New Zealand, Australia, South America, and CEECs. If a farm gate price index for New Zealand lamb is set at 100, then Australia has a value of 48 and the EU has a value of 185. The sheep market is tied closely to the wool market. The decline in wool prices because of competition from synthetics has seen more emphasis placed on cross-breeds and away from wool. (GIRAG, 2006). Australia has approximately 64 percent of the live animal shipments to the Middle East.

Australia resolved its live trade dispute with Saudi Arabia and has gone on to sign Memorandums of Understanding with several other countries to cover procedural arrangements to prevent such incidents in the future. Live trade to Saudi Arabia by Australian live exporters resumed in July, 2005. Australian shipments of sheepmeat increased as well.

New Zealand increased its sheepmeat exports in 2005 and shifted product away from the U.S. and Middle Eastern markets to more valuable markets like the EU and other North American countries. This was to compensate for the higher NZD currency (GIRAG, 2006)

The EU imported 523,000 mt cwe. Approximately 45 percent of imports are from other EU countries. Imports have been relatively firm in this market. New Zealand filled its quota for the EU market partly because of the strong euro.

2. The Ethiopian Sheep and Goat Markets

Ethiopia produced 85,000 mt cwe of sheep and goat meats in 2005 [What is source of the 85000 MT cwe? Assuming average carcass wt of 10 kg, this would be 8.5 million shoats slaughtered, which is substantially higher offtake than official Ethiopian statistics indicate; therefore, this amount must be from a different source. Do these cwe amounts include the numbers of live shoats informally exported thru Somalia?]This is an increase from 62,000 mt in 2000. The annual growth rate is 6.7% per year over the five year period. For the period of 2004 to 2005, shoat production increased 1.7%. The Ethiopian growth in production has been much higher than in Sudan.

The domestic prices for sheep and goat meats have been increasing as more animals are needed to meet the rising export demand as well as the growing domestic market for meat.

3. The Sheep and Goat Markets in the Middle East


The Middle East is a major consumer of sheep and goat meat averaging close to 4 kg/cap for the region.

3.1. Live Animal Imports

The world sheep exports was 5,052,496 head in 2006. [Best estimates for Ethiopian live sheep and goat exports in 2005 were 1.2 million head, about half were sheep, which woukd mean that Ethiopia exported about 15% the number of sheep as did Australia (4.1 million) in 2005!] The average price per head was $56.29 per head. Australia was the major exporter with 83 percent of the exports. In 2005, Australia’s major importing country was Saudi Arabia with 1.07 million head at an average price of $51.34/head. See Table 3.1. Saudi Arabia closed its market to live sheep from Australia in 2004. The market reopened in July 2005, and exports almost reached the 2003 level of 1.4 million head. Most of the sheep exports from Australia are culled ewes. Australis exported to Saudi Arabia 599,834 hd in November, 2006 compared to 419,443 hd in November, 2005. The total exports of sheep for the eleven months ending in November, 2006 was 3.66 million hd slightly higher than for the same period in 2005.

Table 3.1. Australian Live Sheep Exports to Middle East

Importing Country

2003 2004 2005 Price / head US$ (FOB)

Saudi Arabia 1,411,195 0 1,072,089 51.34 Kuwait 1,498,537 1,259,904 890,545 51.27 Jordan 498,999 930,343 884,886 45.94 Bahrain 410,508 490,210 571,455 57.18 Oman 258,967 289,510 358,972 52.70 UAE 225,313 196,095 230,775 51.27 Qatar 180,409 137,406 179,885 52.37 Israel 116,409 32,189 5,000 44.68 Lebanon 17,189 20,711 0 n.a.

Australia exported live goats, and the numbers range from 40,000 to 60,000 head per year for the period of 2004 to 2006. The average price in 2005 was US$92.45/hd. Most of the goats are destined for markets in Southeast Asia rather than the Middle East. Sudan exports large numbers of sheep and goats to Saudi Arabia. Sudan exported 1.72 million sheep in both 2002 and 2003. Sudan exported approximately 260,000 goats in both 2002 and 2003. Major importers of sheep are Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait and Jordan. Major importers of lamb are Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Iraq. Saudi Arabia, UAE, Jordan, Oman, Kuwait and Qatar will import large numbers of mutton-type sheep. There is an intra-trade in MENA of live animals of around 37,000 mt.

As far as exporters to the region, Australia has 64 percent of the live shipments followed by the countries in the Horn of Africa. Major suppliers of lamb are New Zealand, Australia and China. Major suppliers of mutton were Australia, India, China, and New Zealand.

3.2. Sheep and Goat Meats


Total production of sheep and goat meats in the region was 1.3 mmt cwe for 2005. The major producers were Iran, Turkey, Syria and Algeria. Production in the region has been relatively flat or slightly declining during the period of 2000 to 2005. Per capita consumption is around 3.8 kg/cap but varies from the highest in Qatar of 22.2 kg/cap to 5.1. kg/cap in Saudi Arabia. Qatar consumption has been growing at a rate of 3.8% per year from 2000 to 2005.

The trend according to a specialist with the Meat Livestock Australia (MLA) is that consumers have a preference for a 8 – 13 kg carcass in the Middle East. The smaller carcass is perceived to be young. The preference is for young “fat tail” sheep. The preference is for lamb cuts targeted for the growing retail and food service sectors.

3.2.1. Saudi Arabia Market

In the region, imports were highest in Saudi Arabia at 85,000 mt cwe in 2005; however, imports have declined from a high of 149,000 mt in 1995. Rate of decline has been about 5 percent per year. In 2005, Saudi Arabia imported 37,000 mt of sheep and goat meat from Australia, 19,000 mt from New Zealand, and 5,500 mt from India. This amounts to approximately 72 percent of their exports. The figure below shows the delivered prices for sales of fresh or frozen or chilled meat. The Australian price sets the base for the product revealing a slight increase from less than $1,500/mt to $1700/mt.

Price for 0204 in Saudi Arabia

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

1 2 3 4

Years 2003 - 2006

$/ m

etric

ton

Australia

India

New Zealand

Pri ce for 2004 in Saudi Arabia

3.2.1.1. Sheepmeat Products Imported

Products of sheepmeat imported by Saudi Arabia were sheepmeat cuts, bone in, frozen (71%); sheepmeat cuts boneless, frozen (15%), and whole and half carcasses (4%). There is a clear preference for cuts versus carcass meat.

3.2.1.2. Goat Meat Products

Australia is the major exporter of goat meat to ME/NA. In 2005, Australia exported 212 mt of goat meat to Saudi Arabia at a price of $1,394/mt. This amount was less than in 2003 when exports to Saudi Arabia was 354 mt at a value of $2,053/mt.


Australia also exported to Tunisia in 2005 16 mt at a value of of $2,278/mt (FOB Australia). This value is much higher than exports to Saudi Arabia in 2005.

3.2.2. Other Middle East Markets

3.3.2.1. UAE

UAE imported 23,000 mt cwe in 2005 with a 6 percent growth in imports from 2000 to 2005. Australia exported 16,500 mt in 2005 to UAE, New Zealand exported 1,500 mt, and India 2,100 mt. A portion of imports comes from the Horn of Africa. The average FOB valueof the meat was a high of $2,388/mt for meat from Australia to a low of $1,785/mt for meat from India. It is interesting to note that the value of Indian sheepmeat is double the value of Indian beef/buffalo meat.

The main product lines for sheep and goat meat imports had a wider distribution between bone-in, boneless, and carcass meat. Sheep and lamb were also differentiated as well as fresh/chilled and frozen. Thirty percent of Australian imports were frozen, bone-in sheep cuts. The FOB value in 2005 was $2,013/mt. New Zealand exported about 30 percent of its shipments as frozen, bone-in sheep meat at a price of $2,864/mt. The lowest price supplier was India supplying frozen, bone-in cuts of sheep meat at a price of $1,927/mt.

New Zealand supplied UAE with half or whole carcasses of frozen lamb at a price of $2,067/mt in 2006. For the same period, Australia supplied the same product for $2,032/mt. There is no significant difference in prices for the products from the two major suppliers. For most products Australian prices were lower than New Zealand’s prices. India is always the lowest cost supplier.

3.3.2.1. Kuwait

Kuwait imported 34,000 mt cwe in 2005 with a 3.2 percent per year increase. Australia exported 6,000 mt to Kuwait in 2005 at a FOB value of $1,653/mt. The major product categories were frozen, 020442, bone-in cuts of sheep meats (3,039 mt) at $1,462/mt and 020443, boneless cuts of sheepmeat frozen (1905 mt) at a cost of $1,601/mt. New Zealand exported 1,500 mt to Kuwait in 2005 at a cost of $2,633/mt. Imports declined to 1,223 mt in 2006 at a cost price of $2,545/mt. The major product categories were:

Code Product Description Quantity Price/mt

020410 carcass or half-carcass, lamb fresh or chilled 380 mt $3,043 020430 carcass or half carcass, lamb, frozen 378 mt $2,185 020443 Meat of sheep, boneless, frozen 206 mt $2,161 020422 meat of sheep, bone-in, NES01, fresh or chilled 181 mt $2,381

India exported less than 200 mt of sheepmeats.

4. The Sheep and Goat Markets in Central, West and Southern Africa

4.1. Production of Sheep and Goat Meats


Sudan is reported to have the largest production of sheep and goat meat, approximately 270,000 mt in 2005 Production has been flat since 2000 because of civil strife in Western Sudan. Nigeria is reported to be next in production of 248,000 mt cwe. South Africa, Ethiopia, Mali and Kenya have production ranging from 75,000 mt to 100,000 mt cwe per year. Sheep and goat meat production has been relatively unchanged since 2000 except for Ethiopia, Mali and Kenya where production has been growing at an average rate of 5 percent per year.

4.2. Major Import Markets

The three major importing countries are South Africa, Mauritius and Ghana.

4.2.1. South Africa

The major importer of sheep and goat meats in Africa is South Africa with 21,279 mt in 2005 and is mainly supplied by Australia and New Zealand and countries in the Southern Region of Africa, e.g. Namibia. Australia exported 25,700 mt to South Africa at a unit price of $708/mt in 2005. Approximately 20,300 kg was frozen, bone-in cuts of sheep meat (35%) at a unit price of $694/mt, and 3,160 mt of frozen boneless sheep meat (5%) at a unit price of $791/mt. Australia exports of sheepmeat increased from 14,856 mt in 2003 to 25,7034 mt in 2005. The value of frozen, bone-in cuts was almost 50% of the value of similar product shipped to Kuwait. The only explanation is that the quality of sheepmeat being sold into South Africa must be lower than what is shipped into the Middle East. The difference in unit prices was consistent between the two countries for the period of 2003 to 2005..

4.2.2. Mauritius

Mauritius imported around 4,500 mt cwe in 2995 which was below the level of imports in 2003 and 2004 by nearly 9,000 mt.

4.2.3. Ghana

Ghana imported around 5,000 mt cwe of sheepmeat in 2005 at an average price of $679/mt cwe. The majority comes from Australia at a cost of $756/mt and exclusively as frozen, bone-in cuts. New Zealand supplied 1,334 mt in 2005 and 2,340 mt in 2006 at an average cost of $485/mt.

5. North African Markets

The four major countries importing sheepmeat were Algeria, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. The largest importer is Algeria with over 15,000 mt in sheep and goat meats imports in 2005. Libyan imports were around 3,000 mt in 2005 (FAO).

5.1. New Zealand Exports to Algeria

New Zealand exported 5,630 mt in 2006 at an average cost of $1,542/mt. The main product category was sheep cuts, bone-in and frozen. New Zealand exported 5,557/mt at a cost of $1517/mt in 2006 which has been consistently the same for the period of 2004 to 2006. The higher price compared to Ghana must be in the quality of the sheepmeat.


5.2. Australia Exports to Algeria

Australia exported 6,427 mt to Algeria in 2005 at an average cost of $1,541/mt. The majority of the exports were bone in, frozen meat cuts from sheep. The average cost was $1,543/mt which is similar in price to New Zealand product. Argentina and Ireland supplied small quantities of sheep cuts to Algeria. The Argentina price for frozen, bone-in sheepmeat cuts was $1,176/mt in 2005.

6. Near East Markets

The five markets investigated were Jordan, Israel, Lebanon, and Syria. The largest import market for sheepmeat is Jordan with imports approximately 13,000 mt per year. The other three countries average around 500 mt per year each. The GTIS database shows no imports by Syria.

6.1. Jordan

Jordan imported 12,820 mt in 2005 with a decline of 3.7 percent per year from 2000 to 2005. New Zealand exported around 1,600 mt to Jordan in 2006 at a cost of $1,847/mt. The greatest volume of exports was as frozen bone in cuts from sheep at a cost of $1,761/mt. Australia exported 1,700 mt in 2005 at a cost of $1,892/mt. Volume was split mostly between frozen bone-in cuts from sheep priced at $1,584/mt and fresh and chilled carcasses or half carcasses priced at $2,218/mt.


7. Analysis

7.1. Middle East

The Middle East market reveals a propensity for a wider diversity of products of sheepmeat imports. Carcasses and half carcasses, bone-in and boneless, and sheep and lamb combinations mean that buyers are using these products in different market channels and segments. It is important to understand how these products are being directed once in the country of destination.

7.2. Central and West Africa

Ghana is the largest importer of sheepmeat. Imports were 3,400 mt in 2004 and 5,000 mt in 2006 with the majority from Australia. The trade is mainly frozen, bone-in cuts. The average price for sheepmeat from Australia was $756/mt. The price is much lower than Australian products sold in ME/NA markets so these must be a lower grade of cull ewes.

Though South Africa is a major importer of sheepmeats, Australia and New Zealand have strong cultural ties and would not be likely that Ethiopia meat companies could break into the South African market without a lot of marketing expense. The low quoted price for Australian sheepmeat in South Africa would make it difficult for Ethiopia to compete.

7.3. North Africa

Australia and New Zealand are the primary exporters of sheepmeat to this region. The largest importer is Algeria followed by Tunisia. Imports from UK or France are non-existent so this market could be targeted by Ethiopia for future investigations. The average Australian price is around $1,500/mt.

7.4. Near East

Jordan is the primary market for sheepmeat. It is recommended that Ethiopian meat exporters focus on this market. Jordan has a preference for bone-in cuts of sheep that are frozen.

Lebanon and Israel also hold some opportunity for imports of sheepmeat, and Ethiopian meat packers will want to consider ways to penetrate these markets with their products, especially frozen bone-in cuts.


III. MARKET OPPORTUNITIES FOR VARIETY MEATS 1. The Global Demand for Variety Meats

The world trade in variety meats was valued at $3 billion in 2004 and $4 billion in 2005. The top four exporters of beef and sheep variety meats are Australia, USA and Canada and New Zealand in the order of their exports. The world price for variety meats was $773/mt in 2005 and $886/mt in 2006.

2. The Domestic Demand in Ethiopia for Variety Meats

The local demand in Ethiopia for variety meats is high because consumers are seeking affordable meat protein for their level of income.

3. The Variety Meats Markets in the Middle East

3.1. Egypt

The US exported to Egypt 107,927 mt of variety meats in 2006, and this was an increase of over 300 percent from 2005. The average price in 2006 was $779/mt. Of this amount frozen bovine livers were 103,661 mt at an average price of $782/mt. Frozen edible offal imports were 4,265 mt at an average price of $715/mt. Australia, New Zealand and Canada supply only a fraction of the variety meat imports to Egypt.

3.2. Saudi Arabia 3.2.1. US Exports to Saudi Arabia

US exported to Saudi Arabia approximately 2,127 mt of variety meats in 2006 at an average price of $664/mt. (The USMEF data presents higher prices than the GTIS database which could be CIF versus FOB price reporting..) Bovine livers were the most important product with imports of 2,109 mt at an average price of $662/mt. US imports of sheep offal were 19 mt at an average price of $966/mt. The volume of U.S. imports of variety meats in 2006 doubled compared to the same period in 2005.

3.2.2. Australia Exports to Saudi Arabia

Australia exported 8,000 mt of variety meats in 2005 to Saudi Arabia at an average price of $921/mt. The majority (7811 mt) of variety meat was frozen sheep offal at an average price of $927/mt. Sheep offal commands a higher price in the export market.

3.2.3. New Zealand to Saudi Arabia

New Zealand exported 3,196 mt of variety meats to Saudi Arabia in 2005 at a cost of $865/mt. Exports were all frozen sheep offal.

3.3. Yemen


3.3.1. New Zealand Exports to Yemen

New Zealand exported 620 mt of variety meats at an average price of $643/mt. The product was edible sheep offal. This was approximately the amount exported in 2004 and 2005.

3.4. UAE 3.4.1. US Exports to UAE

Imports of variety meats were 94 mt at an average price of $756/mt. Imports of frozen bovine livers were 58 mt at a price of $536 mt.

3.4.2. Australia Exports to UAE

Australia exported 914 mt of variety meats to UAE in 2005 at an average price of $1,070/mt. Approximately 670 mt was frozen edible sheep offal at a cost of $955/mt.

3.4.3. India Exports to UAE

India does not export a large quantity of variety meats to the MENA region. In 2005, India exported only 106 mt to the UAE at an average price of $712/mt. The great majority was frozen edible offal at a price of $665/mt.

4. The Variety Meats Markets in Central, West and South Africa

Imports of variety meats were 56,000 mt for the region, and Argentina was the major source of variety meats. Argentina exported 25,300 mt in 2005 at an average cost of $797/mt.

4.1. Cote d’Ivoire 4.1.1. US Exports to Cote d’Ivoire

US exported to Cote d’Ivoire 4,685 mt of variety meats in 2006 with an average price of $585. This is about the same amount as in 2004 and 2005. The major import items were edible offals of 4,653 mt at an average price of $587/mt.

4.1.2. Canada Exports to Cote d’Ivoire

Canada exported 631 mt of variety meats at an average price of $281/mt of which 567 mt was frozen edible offal at a price of $304/mt.

4.1.3. France Exports to Cote d’Ivoire

France exported slightly over 10,000 mt to Cote d’Ivoire in 2006. The average cost per mt was $317/mt. The majority was frozen edible beef offal at a cost of $369/mt. 4.2. South Africa

4.2.1. Australia Exports to South Africa


Australia exported 10,700 mt of variety meats in 2005 at an average price of $759/mt. Over 50 percent of imports were frozen edible offal at a price of $794/mt. Australia as exported 3,400 mt of frozen sheep offal at an average price of $725/mt in 2005.

4.2.2. New Zealand Exports to South Africa

New Zealand exported 7,667 mt of variety meats to South Africa. The average cost was $600/mt. The majority of this product was frozen edible sheep offal at a cost of $568/mt. Other products were frozen bovine edible offal and beef hearts.

4.3. Congo 4.3.1. Argentina Exports to the Congo

In 2006, Argentina exported 14,300 mt of variety meats to the Congo. The average cost per mt was $613/mt. Frozen beef edible offal exports was 12,356 mt at an average cost of $648/mt. The Congo represented the largest import market for variety meats in Central and West Africa.

5. The Variety Meats Markets in North Africa

The region imports very little variety meats. Only 38 mt of variety meats were imported in 2005. The region includes Algeria, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia.

6. The Variety Meats Markets in Near East Region

The major importing country in the region is Israel which imported 5,319 mt in 2006. The major suppliers were Brazil, Uruguay, and Argentina with average imports of 1,600 mt each. The average price per mt was $1,000/mt. Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon had some imports of variety meats averaging around 600 mt in 2006. Syria did not import variety meats in 2006.

7. Analysis Variety meats is an export market opportunity for Ethiopian meat packers. More in-country

market studies would be useful to understand how to trim, package and freeze the product for key markets.

7.1. Middle East

Egypt is the major import market for variety meats in the Middle East. SPS-LMM needs to undertake research on how this vast amount of product, over 100,000 mt, are being packaged and what channels are being used to distribute the product. Frozen beef liver is a product of major importance. Ethiopian meat exporters need to aggressive try to capture market share.

7.2. Central, West and South Africa

The key market is the Republic of Congo. Capturing market share will take some effort because of location advantages by Argentina which sold 14,000 mt in 2006 at a price of $613/mt. Air freight cost for offal will probably not be cost effective.


Saudi Arabia is also a good market for variety meats. Imported frozen sheep offal were receiving an average price of $927/mt. SPS-LMM could address market access for this product.

7.3. Near East

Israel is a market which hold opportunity for Ethiopian variety meat, mostly frozen livers and tongues. With an average price of $1,000/mt, mainly from South America, Ethiopia may be competitive. The Ethiopian community in Israel could be targeted with traditional products.


IV. CONCLUSIONS AND MARKET RECOMMENDATIONS 1. Conclusions

1.1. Industry Rivalry

From previous information collected in interviews in Ethiopia, there is the tendency for the few meat companies to compete for the same wholesale accounts in the importing countries through price negotiation. Sometimes this is by offering small price discounts. It will be important to show the Ethiopian companies how to take a longer view using collaborative marketing tactics rather than destructive competitive tactics that harm the industry.

1.2. Entry of Firms

It is unlikely that during the time remaining in the project that new companies will enter the meat business within Ethiopia. Lack of capital and time consuming bureaucratic regulations are barriers to entry for new start-up meat companies. New companies will be slow to emerge. The project will have to pull up the existing firms in the industry. One method is for the project to devote large amount of resources to f marketing training.

Within the region Sudan, Kenya and Somalia present the most likelihood of new entrants to provide export competition to Ethiopia’s meat trade. The Kenya Meat Commission has been resurrected recently with new management that is embarking on the export market. With the current ban to Gulf States by the Rift Valley Fever this has put some restrictions on their trade opportunities for the present time. With the current instability in Somalia, livestock imports will be reduced for the foreseeable future.

The Sudan export market has been experiencing domestic difficulties which is affecting the supply chain for live animals from western parts of Sudan. The effects of the oil exports, “Dutch Disease” is resulting in inflation in local prices and the strengthening of the Sudan Dinar. Livestock and meat are being directed into the domestic market where higher prices are being paid.

As reported to me by the CoP for SPS-LMM project, the Djibouti livestock holding facility developed by the Red Sea Livestock Commission and USAID was sold to a Saudi Arabian livestock importer. The impact of this sale is not clearly known at this time, but there may be more added regulations in animals entering and exiting the facility to the Gulf markets. Saudi livestock traders have been setting up their operations not only in Djibouti but also Sudan.

Australian exporters of live animals have structured a new memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Gulf States after the disruption to exports in 2004. This MoU paves the way for Australian exporters to have unrestricted trade into the region. Australia, New Zealand, India, and Brazil will continue to put pressure on price margins for livestock and meat to the detriment of Ethiopian meat exporters. 1.3. Substitute Meat Products

In the GCC markets, the preference for sheep and goat meat is from animals that have been pasture raised. In this regard, Ethiopia has the opportunity to fill a consumer niche. It will be important to emphasize the positive attributes of Ethiopian sheep and goats in promotion


programs in the importing markets. Fat tail sheep from Syria and Iran are preferred in the Gulf markets.

Table 1. Recap on Per Capita Consumption of Beef, Shoat and Poultry Meat

Country Unit Beef Shoat Poultry UAE kg/cap 8.4 17.4 68.6 Saudi Arabia “ 3.6 6.7 39.0 Kuwait “ 3.6 19.5 54.2 Yemen “ 3.2 2.8 8.9 Egypt “ 8.2 1.0 7.7

Source: FAO STAT

Poultry has been the major competitor to red meat. Poultry consumption per capita has been increasing steadily. UAE had the highest per capita consumption of poultry 68.5 kg/cap and Egypt the lowest (7.74 kg/cap) (Table 1).. The H5N1 disease has put a damper on both poultry supplies as well as consumer preferences for poultry meat. Poultry meat consumption will continue to be a major competitor to beef, sheep, and goat meats on price.

As the exports of beef, sheep and goat meats increase in Ethiopia, a tension develops with rising domestic prices for these products. Poultry cannot pick up all the unmet demand for red meats as red meat prices rise. What can occur is that government can intervene with policies that restrict export trade. For example, Argentina last year banned the export of beef for six months to allow for domestic demand to be met and local retail prices to decline. According to recent data from the SPS-LMM project, India is also restricting trade in beef and buffalo meat to force exporters to better comply with international SPS protocols. Ethiopia can benefit when foreign governments choose to disrupt a country’s trading patterns. However, government officials can be sensitive to rising food prices, even for a luxury good like beef, sheep and goat meats.

1.4. Buyers in Key Market Areas

It is generally true for all the markets investigated that frozen beef is more prevalent than fresh or chilled beef. Ethiopia could try to compete more aggressively with the fresh meat exports to the markets where there is available air transport. High valued cuts could be targeted to supermarket chains or the HRI markets. The emphasis would need to be on boneless fresh and chilled beef and not carcasses.

For the frozen beef and sheep meat, trade predominates across all markets. This segment requires much more effort by the Ethiopians to be a player in regional trade. Investment in facilities and technologies down the supply chain will be crucial to the ability of the exporters to be competitive. Quality of meat will have to be improved, especially in hygiene and consistency in product standards, e.g. size of cuts, color, and fat cover.

1.4.1. Middle East

SPS-LMM project conducted field trips to Egypt and UAE. The reports provided clear recommendations on courses of action for the Ethiopia’s meat exports. A report from recent World Bank funded market research on horticulture markets in the Gulf States indicates that the rise of the supermarket segment increases the need for developing alliances or market agreements with some of these chains. Some of these chains will be demanding standards and volumes that may make it impossible at this time for Ethiopia exporters to participate, e.g. traceability of the meat to the producer and necessary health certificates from the Central Veterinary Service (CVS). More vertical integration and coordination by Ethiopian meat


companies will be a key to success in the future. This will require increased levels of investments.

The role that Dubai is playing as a gatekeeper to imports of horticulture products in the GCC is relevant to red meats and Ethiopian meat exporters. SPS-LMM is working on reopening the trade with Dubai after the closure because of RVF. Hopefully, these efforts will result in renewing the exports into the GCC. UAE also represents the opportunity for Ethiopian meat products to be reexported to other GCC countries.

Ethiopia has its own bilateral agreement with Egypt. The Egyptian market is a good opportunity for meat exporters; however, Ethiopian meat is priced as cheap meat mainly targeted to the government meat shops. The Egyptian market analysis implies that large quantities of beef and beef variety meats will be important in the future. Hopefully, Egypt can be a supplier of frozen meat in the future to reduce the cost of air transport and compete with other major meat exporters.

MENA is a very competitive market for livestock and meat imports. For livestock, Australia and countries in the Horn of Africa supply the market. Even with location advantages, Ethiopia faces poor infrastructure in the collecting and processing of live animals. Cattle and sheep can be in stressed condition by the time they arrive at port of entry and therefore will be rejected. Belachew, in his Dubai field report, noted that there can be significant mortality rates of livestock while in transit across the water.

Gulf States are experiencing unparalleled growth, especially in the food service industry. There has been double digit growth in tourism and the number of hotels built in the last several years. Market research is needed on what these HRI buyers need in the way of beef, sheep, goat and variety meats for their market segments.

Gulf States are seeing an increase in the number of retailers. It will be necessary to employ category management principles and improve supply chain performance. (See the Annex Report on the supply chain for horticulture products in Dubai.) Barakat is the major wholesaler to the food service industry in the UAE, and it is advisable that contact be made with this company on purchasing Ethiopian meat products.

1.4.2. West, Central and South Africa

Countries in these regions are generally net importers of beef, sheepmeat and variety meat, but not on the scale of Middle East countries. Air transport is the only practical way at the present to ship products to these countries. This will place limitations on how much product can be sold. India is the least cost supplier of beef items, and it will be important to understand possible market windows for Ethiopian products.

1.4.3. North Africa

This regional market is small compared to the Gulf States; however there may be opportunities to investigate if shipping logistics other than air can be arranged.

1.4.4. Neat East

Jordan, Israel, and Lebanon are markets that could be further investigated with field visits by the SPS-LMM team


2. Recommendations

The project needs to further collect market information and investigate products that can be targeted to the following segments:

Retail Food service

Because of lower labor costs than Australia and New Zealand, Ethiopia would have an advantage on processing boneless beef and sheepmeat cuts. Special processing of variety meats could also be performed to client specifications. There is certainly an opportunity to consider deboning whole carcasses into primal pieces for further processing in an importing country. Beef cuts could be pre-cooked for HRI markets, hotels or restaurants. Again market research is needed on the requirements in the various end markets.

The meat industry, represented by its Ethiopian Producers and Exporters Association, could be very active in generic promotion in markets where access is relatively open. In conjunction with the commercial office of the Ethiopian embassy, food shows or evening presentations can be held to feature Ethiopian beef, sheepmeat and variety meats. This could be done in cooperation with other Ethiopian food products to reduce the cost of the events. Marketing materials could be developed to promote the products. (The consultant provided information on the International Food Show in Dubai and suggested the project could sponsor displays by Ethiopian meat exporters and their products.)

The meat export companies need to investigate strategies to exploit market windows which do not compete head to head with Australian live animals. For example in November, 2006, Australia imported approximately 600,000 head of sheep for the Hajj season. As far as fresh meat, Ethiopia has a competitive edge on cost but the quality of meat will continue to be an issue. Supply channels will need to be improved to supply fresh and frozen beef and sheepmeat without air transport.

Strategies for the Ethiopian Meat Industry

The following market strategies are proposed for the Ethiopian meat industry.

1. Research the retail and food service meat markets in Gulf States including Egypt for beef,

sheep and goatmeats, and variety meats. In-country market research using a local company would enhance the exporters’ understanding of future trends in demand and which demographic groups to target. (The databases consulted do not provide enough information on specific market segments and their preferences (fresh, frozen, types of cuts, packaging, etc. In fact, data on MENA markets had to be derived from data presented by the primary export countries and then summed by product categories).

2. Identify a market intermediary, a local service provider (LSP) in each country in the Gulf

States, who has the capacity to enhance market linkages and represent Ethiopian meat companies in penetrating the market segments identified as most promising in no. 1 above. The LSP could be responsible for promoting both generic and branded programs (see #5).


3. Ethiopian meat exporters prepare promotional materials and attend food shows in the

region, such as the International Food Show in Dubai. This activity will lead into the initiation of trial shipments outlined in #4.

4. Initiate trial shipments of experimental products for the market segments with the assistance

of the LSP identified in no. 2. Emphasis would be on value-added products that fit a particular niche, i.e. hotel buffet items (e.g. roasts), cubed meats for shiskabobs or a particular type and preparation of variety meat products.

5. With the help of the LSP, undertake a promotion program, for example running a feature in

a set of hotels or supermarket outlets for a period of time with a generic Ethiopian meat promotion program. Another opportunity would be to develop and feature an Ethiopian meat item for a chain of restaurants in a country.

6. The above items have identified the Gulf States and Egypt region but with the current

stalemate on meat exports to this region, the steps can be applied to one of the other regions: Central-West-South Africa, North Africa, and Near East.

Ethiopia exporters face a situation where demand for their livestock and meat fluctuate from month to month out of their control. A strategy to overcome this problem is to establish a business relationships with the final end-users whether retail chains or food service (fast food, hotels or other large institutions) in an effort to by-pass the importers. A potential wholesaler in the UAE would be Barakat. Once the relationships are established then an importer can be solicited to manage the import protocols if necessary. The tactic to employ is for the project’s market director to travel into selected countries on a regular basis to make the necessary direct contacts. A local marketing specialist could lay the groundwork before the marketing director arrives.

The Middle East is experiencing unparalleled growth in food service due to investments in tourism. There has been double digit growth in the number of hotels over the past two years. (http://www.mla.com.au/topic hierarchy/market information.overseas markets.) This development is affecting the sheep meat demand. The market was historically frozen carcasses, but the market now wants chilled lamb cuts for the growing food service and retail sectors. To enter these segments directly then Ethiopian processors will have to employ strict food safety measures and control the prevalence of diseases (actual or perceived). Ethiopian exporters will need to implement tactics based on category management principles to improve supply chain performance. Merchandising tactics include: food tasting, new Point-of –Sale (POS) materials, print media advertising, and a video on guaranteed Halal. Some of these activities can begin while the exporters wait for the Gulf markets to reopen.


http://www.mla.com.au/topic%20hierarchy/market%20information.overseas

ANNEX 1. BIBLIOGRAPHY American Agribusiness Assistance. “Market Analysis/Feasibility Study and Recommendations for

an Integrated Beef Production Company in Ethiopia. Washington, D.C., 1997. Belachew. Report of Trip to Egypt. SPS-LMM. 2006. Belachew. Report of Trip to UAE. SPS-LMM. 2006. COMTRADE Database. Delgado, C. et al. “Livestock to 2020 The Next Food Revolution.” IFPRI. Washington, D.C.

1999. Dyck, J. H. and K.E. Nelson. “Structure of the Global Markets for Meat.” USDA. #785. 2003. FAO. Agricultural Data Base. GTIS. Global Trade and Information Service. Database International Meat Secretariat. “IMS – GIRA World Meat Facts Book 2006.” Paris, France. 2006. Mariner, Jeffrey. Assessment of Livestock and Livestock Producer Markets in Selected Countries in

the Middle East. April, 2006 U. S. Meat Export Federation Database.


ANNEX 2. MENA DATA AND ANALYSIS (Initial report – October 28, 2006) 1. INTRODUCTION

This desk research was carried out in support of the Texas A & M University’s SPS-LMM Project in Ethiopia. The data collection and analysis provide insight into an important market region for meat exports from Ethiopia.

Eleven countries were identified by the project staff as being of interest to meat exporters.

Bahrain Egypt Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Libya Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirate Yemen

These countries were later expanded to include West and Central Africa, other countries in North Africa, e.g. Tunisia and Algeria; and Near East countries, e.g. Israel, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria.

The primary source of information was from Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The time series data were for the period of 1990 to 2004. FAO did not provide data series in the new format for Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman. Data for these countries were extracted from the discontinued FAO database. Other databases will be incorporated in the final report: Global Trade Database (GTIS), Comtrade and the U.S. Meat Export Federation.

2. PRODUCTION

Data collected on domestic production of meat provides a comparison on the importance to the agricultural economy of the country.

2.1. Beef

2.1.1. Production.

Based on data in 2004, the top five countries in the Gulf Region in total beef and buffalo production are:

1st Egypt (593,800 mt) 2nd Yemen (59,800 mt) 3rd Lebanon (52,500 mt) 4th Saudi Arabia (22,800 mt) 5th UAE (9,300 mt) 6th Libya (6,300 mt)


2.1.2. Production per capita

The lowest production of beef per capita for the MENA target countries are: 1st. Jordan (.639 kg/cap) 2nd Kuwait (.958 kg/cap) 3rd Saudi Arabia (.99 kg/cap) 4th Libya (1.105 kg/cap) 5th Yemen (2.98 kg/cap)

The countries with the highest production per capita are: 1st. Lebanon ((14.58 kg/cap) 2nd Egypt (7.27 kg/cap) 3rd UAE (3.51 kg/cap)

2.2. Shoat

2.2.1. Production

Based on the annual average production for the past three years, the top five countries in the region in total shoat production are:

1st Saudi Arabia (98,300 mt) 2nd Egypt (70,377 mt) 3rd Yemen (54,533 mt) 4th Kuwait (35,117 mt) 5th Libya (33,363 mt) 6th UAE (24,600 mt) 2.2.2. Production per capita

The lowest production of shoat meat per capita for the MENA target countries are:

1st. Egypt (.98 kg/cap) 2nd Jordan (1.01 kg/cap) 3rd Yemen (2.72 kg/cap) 4th Saudi Arabia (4.29 kg/cap) 5th Lebanon (4.75 kg/cap)

The countries with the highest production per capita are:

1st. Kuwait (17.05 kg/cap) 2nd UAE (9.09 kg/cap) 3rd Libya (5.85 kg/cap)

2.3. Poultry

The major substitute meat product for beef, sheep meat and goat meat is chicken meat. Some countries in the region have expanded domestic production of poultry for domestic consumption.


2.3.1. Production

The five leading producers of poultry meat based on the annual average production for the past three years are.

1st Egypt (555,500 mt) 2nd Saudi Arabia (529,100) 3rd Lebanon (127,230 mt) 4th Jordan (114,960 mt) 5th Libya (98,800 mt)

2.3.2. Production per capita

The lowest production of poultry meat per capita for the MENA target countries are:

1st. Yemen (4.30 kg/cap) 2nd Egypt (7.73 kg/cap) 3rd UAE (12.86 kg/cap) 4th Libya (17.33 kg/cap) 5th Kuwait (18.90 kg/cap)

The countries with the highest production of poultry meat per capita are:

1st. Lebanon (34.86 kg/cap) 2nd Saudi Arabia (23.12 kg/cap) 3rd Jordan (21.25 kg/cap)

3. MEAT CONSUMPTION

3.1. Factors Impacting Meat Consumption

3.1.1. Human Population Growth Rates

Census data on each MENA country was sourced from the internet (Table 3.1.). The country with the largest population is Egypt followed by Saudi Arabia and Yemen. The other countries have populations under 10 million people.

Countries with the highest national growth rates are Qatar, Oman and Jordan. More importantly the countries with the highest urban growth are Oman, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Jordan. An important target market for meat products in MENA will be directed to households in urban centers.

Table 3.1. Human population statistics =============================================================== Country Human Population Annual Growth Rates______ (number) National Rural Urban Bahrain 663,000 2.9 1.7 3.6 Egypt 70,278,000 2.2 2.1 2.4


Jordan 5,196,000 4.1 1.9 5.2 Kuwait 2,023,000 1.8 -5.2 2.2 Lebanon 3,614,000 1.0 -3.7 2.0 Libya 5,529,000 3.1 -1.5 4.2 Oman 2,709,000 4.1 -3.2 9.0 Qatar 584,000 4.8 1.6 5.2 Saudi Arabia 21,701,000 2.7 -0.3 5.4 United Arab Emirate 2,701,000 0.2 -0.1 0.3 Yemen 19,912,000 0.6 0.0 1.2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Note: Population estimate is for 2002, and growth rates are for the period of 1980 – 2000.

3.2. Beef and Buffalo

Countries were ranked on the highest to the lowest in per capita consumption of beef and buffalo. An annual average consumption was estimated for the period of 2002 to 2004.

1st. Lebanon (17.49 kg/cap) 2nd. Egypt (8.81) 3rd. UAE (8.36) 4th. Jordan (4.22) 5th. Saudi Arabia (3.61) 6th Kuwait (3.56) 7th Yemen (3.22) 8th Libya (1.33)

3.2.1. Egypt

Data obtained from a secondary source reported that red meat consumption in Egypt was 10.4 kg per capita in 1991 (De Boer et al.). Red meat consumed in Egypt is primarily fresh meat produced locally and imported frozen meat. The poorest segments of the population consume frozen meat and consider it a superior good. The non-poor groups consider frozen meat an inferior good and purchase less as their incomes rise.

3.3. Sheep and Goat Meat

Countries were ranked from the highest to the lowest in per capita consumption of shoat meat.

1st. Kuwait (19.49 kg/cap) 2nd. UAE (17.41) 3rd. Libya (7.48) 4th. Saudi Arabia (6.69) 5th. Lebanon (4.07) 6th. Yemen (2.75) 7th Jordan (2.85) 8th Egypt (.98)

3.4. Poultry Meat

Countries were ranked on the highest to the lowest on per capita consumption of poultry meat.


1st. UAE (68.63 kg/cap) 2nd. Kuwait (54.15) 3rd. Saudi Arabia (38.99) 4th. Lebanon (26.80) 5th. Jordan (21.93) 6th Libya (17.65) 7th Yemen (8.86) 8th Egypt (7.74)

Data obtained from a secondary source reported that chicken meat consumption in Egypt was 7.8 kg per capita in 1991.

3.5. Self-Sufficiency in Meat Production

Each country is ranked according to its self-sufficiency in meeting domestic consumption of each meat item. The measurement for self-sufficiency is production per capita as a percent of meat consumption per capita.

3.5.1. Beef

The rank order for self-sufficiency in beef is listed from most to least self-sufficient in beef. 1st. Yemen (92 percent) 2nd Egypt (83%) 2nd. Lebanon (83%) 2nd. Libya (83%) 3rd. UAE (42%) 4th. Saudi Arabia (28%) 5th. Kuwait (27%) 6th. Jordan (15%) 3.5.2. Shoat

The rank order for self-sufficiency in shoat meat is listed from most to least self-sufficient in shoat meat.

1st. Lebanon (117 percent) 2nd Egypt (100%) 3rd. Yemen (99%) 4th. Kuwait (87%) 5th. Libya (78%) 6th. Saudi Arabia (64%) 7th. UAE (52%) 8th. Jordan (35%) 3.5.3. Chicken Meat

The rank order for self-sufficiency in chicken meat is listed from most to least self-sufficient in chicken meat.


1st. Lebanon (130 percent) 2nd Egypt (100%) 3rd. Libya (98%)

4th. Jordan (97%) 5th. Saudi Arabia (59%) 6th. Yemen (48%) 7th. Kuwait (35%)

8th. UAE (19%) 4. TRADE DATA

4.1. Live Animals Imports 4.1.1. Cattle

All eleven countries in MENA were ranked in order of number of head of cattle imported based on the annual average for the period of 2002 to 2004.

1st. Lebanon (217,600 head per year) 2nd. Egypt (79,000 head) 3rd. Yemen (57,600) 4th. UAE (49,370) 5th. Jordan (46,709) 6th. Saudi Arabia (17,540) 7th Kuwait (9,340) 8th. Bahrain (6,759) 9th. Libya (5,319) 10th.Oman (555) 11th. Qatar (295)

4.1.2. Goats

MENA countries are listed from largest to smallest in imports of goats based on the annual average for the period of 2002 to 2004.

1st. Oman (855,580 head per year) 2nd. UAE (639,125 head) 3rd. Saudi Arabia (242,460) 4th. Yemen (271,662) 5th. Jordan (94,420) 6th. Bahrain (20,710) 7th Kuwait (12,850) 8th. Lebanon (9,930) 9th. Libya (9,930) 10th. Qarar (7,270) 11th. Egypt (0)

4.1.3. Sheep


MENA countries are listed from largest to smallest in imports of sheep based on the annual average for the period of 2002 to 2004.

1st. Saudi Arabia (4,658,765 head per year) 2nd. Kuwait (1,635,450 head) 3rd. UAE (678,765) 4th. Jordan (627,606) 5th. Yemen (437,820) 6th. Qatar (426,227) 7th Bahrain (391,530) 8th. Oman (383,396) 9th. Egypt (62,404) 10th. Libya (9,260)

4.2. Meat Imports

4.2.1. Beef

Each country is ranked according to the volume of beef imported annually for the period of 2002 to 2004.

1st. Egypt (114,550 mt per year) 2nd. Saudi Arabia (65,000 mt) 3rd. UAE (29,300 mt) 4th. Jordan (25,310 mt) 5th. Lebanon (22,210) 6th. Libya (7,480) 7th Kuwait (4,850) 8th. Yemen (4,830) 4.2.2. Sheep and Goat Meats

Each country is ranked according to the volume of sheep and goat meat imported annually for the period of 2002 to 2004.

1st. UAE (77,700 mt average per year) 2nd. Saudi Arabia (50,000 mt) 3rd. Jordan (20,000 mt) 4th. Libya (12,770 mt) 5th. Kuwait (11,620 mt) 6th. Lebanon (590 mt) 7th. Yemen (486 mt) 8th. Egypt (407 mt) 4.2.3. Chicken Meat

Each country is ranked according to the volume of chicken meat imported annually for the period of 2002 to 2004.

1st. Saudi Arabia (367,000 mt average per year)


2nd. UAE (159,750 mt) 3rd. Yemen (90,380 mt) 4th. Kuwait (83,520 mt) 5th. Jordan (6,030 mt) 6th. Lebanon (2,780 mt) 7th. Egypt (1,940 mt) 8th. Libya (140 mt)

4.3. Net Trade Data

Net trade in meat is calculate as quantity of exports minus quantity of imports. Data is taken for the period of 2002 to 2004.

4.3.1. Beef

1st. Egypt (-113,933 mt per year) 2nd. Saudi Arabia (-60,443 mt / year) 3rd. UAE (-22,616) 4th. Lebanon (–21,573 mt)) 5th. Jordan (-19,413 6th. Libya (-7,480) 7th. Kuwait (-4,810) 8th. Yemen (-4,786)

4.3.2. Shoat

1st. Saudi Arabia (-48,676 mt per year) 2nd UAE (-28,333 mt) 3rd. Jordan (-10,483 mt) 4th. Libya (-9,617 mt) 5th. Kuwait (–4,850 mt) 6th. Lebanon (-573 mt) 7th. Yemen (-487 mt) 8th. Egypt (-323 mt)

4.3.3. Chicken Meat

1st. Saudi Arabia (-361,497 mt) 2nd. Yemen (-90,146 mt) 3rd. Kuwait (-83,496 mt) 4th. UAE (-14,686 mt) 5th. Jordan (-4,823 mt) 6th Egypt (-1,396 mt)

7th. Lebanon (-576 mt)

4.4. Origins of Livestock and Meat Imports to Countries in MENA 4.4.1. Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia imports live sheep from Australia, New Zealand, Sudan, Jordan and Syria. Total sheep slaughter in Saudi Arabia is estimated at 10.75 million head per year. About 8 percent of


this is supplied by commercial farms in Saudi Arabia. Before the bans due to animal diseases, Saudi Arabia would import around 7 million sheep per year.

During the Hajj, it is projected that 50 percent of the pilgrims will slaughter sheep. There is an estimated 2 million pilgrims each year with a projected slaughter of 1 million head.

4.4.1.1. Australia to Saudi Arabia

0201 Meat of bovine animals, fresh or chilled From 2002 to 2005 the quantity of beef fresh or chilled has declined from 1.482 mt to 143 mt per year. The value has declined from $4.7 million to $745,000. The majority of this amount has been in the category of 0201-30 which is beef which is fresh, chilled and boneless.

0202 Meat of bovine animals, frozen From 2003 to 2005 the quantity of beef frozen has dropped from 1800 mt to 500 mt per year.

0204 Meat of sheep and goats, fresh, chilled or frozen The volume of meat imported from Australia averaged 25,000 mt per year from 2003 to 2005 with an average export value of $52 million. Goat meat represented only a small portion of this HS code, with exports of goat meat (fresh, chilled or frozen - 020450) averaging only 340 mt with a value of $850,000 per year. 0206 Edible offal of bovines, swine, sheep, goats, horses, etc. From 2003 to 2005, Saudi Arabia imported approximately 4,000 mt of offal from Australia at an annual value of $5.5 million per year.

4.4.1.2. Jordan to Saudi Arabia

Jordan exported approximately 419,000 head to Saudi Arabia in 1999. Fat Tail sheep from Jordan and Iran are preferred in Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf States.

4.4.1.3. New Zealand to Saudi Arabia

Edible offal from New Zealand to Saudi Arabia averaged 2,100 mt for the years data is reported from 2001 to 2005. The average annual value was $2.2. million. This amount is less than exports from Australia to Saudi Arabia for the same period of reporting.

4.4.1.4. Sudan to Saudi Arabia

For the period of 2002 and 2003, live sheep exports from Sudan to Saudi Arabia averaged around 1,730,000 sheep and 260,000 goats.

Sudan shipped 4,420 mt sheepmeats carcasses to Saudi Arabia and an average of 8 mt of sheepmeat not as carcasses.

4.4.1.5. Syria to Saudi Arabia


Syria exports live sheep to Saudi Arabia. In 1999, 983,133 head were exported. Fat tail sheep from Syria are preferred by consumers.

4.4.1.6. USA to Saudi Arabia

Beef. From 2001 to 2005, US exports of beef averaged 910 mt per year with an average annual value of $5.6 million. This meat would have likely been mainly for the food service accounts supplying hotels and restaurants.

Variety Meats. U.S. beef variety meats exports to Saudi Arabia were 101 mt in 2003 and 243 mt in 2004 with an average price of $1,674/mt. It is not certain why the average price is higher than data found in other databases. One explanation is that the USMEF database is recording CIF values rather than FOB values in the GTIS database. Sheep variety meats exported were 278 mt in 2004 with a value of $533,000 ($$1,917/mt). (USMEF).

4.4.2. Egypt

4.4.2.1. Beef

Countries shipping bovine meat to Egypt

Year Country Quantity Value $/MT 2005 Pakistan 29,079 mt $24,337,000 836 Senegal 33,751 mt $12,613,000 374 Jordan 21,138 mt $53,496,000 2531 Belarus 9,582 mt $17,004,000 1774 Armenia 6,387 mt $9,869,000 1545

4.4.2.2. Sheep and Goats

Countries shipping sheep and goat meat to Egypt

Year Country Quantity Value

Jordan 14,765 mt $27,311,000

Belarus 1,450 mt $ 2,945,000

Maldives 253 mt $ 980,000

Senegal 106 mt $ 333,000

2005

Tanzania 57 mt $ 43,000

5. ETHIOPIA LIVESTOCK AND MEAT EXPORTS

Meat exports have been trending upward over the period of 2000/01 to 2005/06. Meat exports were relatively flat the last two years. Live animal exports have increased from a low in 2000/01 after the imposed bans by countries in the region on live animals because of Rift Valley Fever. Value of meat exports have steadily increased over the past six years. The value of live animals were at their highest level last year with $27.2 million in export earnings. One additional impact


of meat exports over live animal exports is the value of the hides and skins which is not included in these tables.

Year (Export Volume) Product

Unit 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06

1.Meat and Meat products

Ton 870 663 1,700 3,317 7,754

7,856

2. Live Animal Head 4,919 32,383 10,372 41,966 103,905 163,375 Source: Ethiopian Customs Authority

Year (Export Value in 000’USD) Product 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 1.Meat & Meat products 1,725 1,103 2,400 6,335 15,598 18,323 2. Live Animal 181 343 480 2,377 13,081 27,262

Source: Ethiopian Customs Authority


Annex 3. The Dubai and Middle East Markets (market report by Andrew Sergeant, private consultant to World Bank)

India exports fruit and vegetables to all countries in the Middle East, but the most important destination is Dubai. This is because it has good logistical and cultural links with India. Dubai has also established itself as a significant hub for trade with many of the other Middle East countries and has therefore established good road and sea links with these other countries. In order to facilitate its trade hub status, there are excellent road and sea links with neighbouring countries. Also, in order to confirm its status as a hub, Dubai is a “free-port” and horticultural commodities can be imported duty-free – and without restrictions. Imports from Dubai into other Gulf Council Counties Cooperation (GCC) are also duty-free; however, it was reported that Saudi levied a 5% import duty from non-GCC countries. Also, it was reported that there were fewer problems with Saudi inspectors when imports came via Dubai rather than direct from a non-GCC country. The value of re-exports of fruit and vegetables increased significantly between 2001 and 2005, when 52% of the produce was re-exported (Table 1). Since the opening of the new Al Aweer wholesale market, it is reported that re-exports are even more important1. Table 1 Dubai - imports and re-exports of fruit and vegetables 2001 & 2003

Year Imports Re-Exports % re-exported 2001 AED 1,500 million AED 599 million 40% 2003 AED 1,400 million AED 731 million 52%

Source: Dubai Chamber of Commerce & Industry Economic Bulletin, Vol 1, Issue 2 (April 04) There is a well-established fruit and vegetable market structure in Dubai. Most of the produce is imported by sea and lands at the port at Jabal Ali or Hamriya (where the “country craft” normally dock). The containers are off-loaded and inspected – and the country craft are inspected before off-loading. Officers of the Dubai Municipal Authority do the inspection. According to importers, the inspection is purely physical2 and consignments are very rarely rejected – very occasionally, part of one may have to be re-graded to remove rots. The trade justified the relatively conservative approach to inspection by stating that the market would not pay for damaged goods – and because there was free trade in Dubai, the relaxed inspections helped reinforced the free trade status. Once the produce has been passed by the Dubai municipality, it is apparently easy to import it into neighbouring countries – there is a distinct advantage for importing to some Middle East countries via Dubai rather than direct. After off-loading, the majority of the produce goes to the new Dubai wholesale market at Al Aweer – where most of the importers are based – for selling and re-distribution. The Al Aweer market has only recently been opened (in mid 2004), it occupies one million square metres. There are over 200 importers based in the market – some are large and have targeted supply to the major retail outlets, catering and retail trade (eg, the Iran Dubai Company, Barakat, International Foodstuffs Company). However, the majority of them are smaller and import from a small number of exporters, normally

1 It is estimated that 60% of fruit and vegetable imports into Dubai are now re-exported. 2 One importer stated that the inspection was done with the olfactory senses – if the consignment smelt good, it passed, if it smelt bad, it was further inspected.


from their home country3. The importers then sell to the myriad of smaller shops, the larger supermarket chains and the food service sector. There is also a traditional fruit and vegetable retail market in Dubai – adjacent to the wholesale market, but as the new market is further out of town compared to the old market at Al Hamrya, the authorities expect retail trade at the new market to decline.

3 Changes in grocery retailing The grocery retail sector is developing rapidly, with investments by large supermarket chains – some are European-owned, eg Carrefour, Casino, while others are Middle East owned, eg Choitrum and Spinneys. The European supermarkets, especially the French, have seriously targeted Middle East penetration, eg Carrefour has plans to open 70 stores in the medium-term and Casino is targeting most Middle East countries. Prior to the advent of the modern supermarkets, most groceries were sold in a range of shops and small supermarkets. These ranged from larger shops selling a range of groceries to much smaller “Mom & Pop corner shops” selling a narrower range of products. However, the introduction of European-style supermarket chains with their much greater buying power is starting to put these smaller shops under considerable pressure. Traditionally, most of the fruit and vegetables sold through retail outlets would have been purchased direct from importers; when the modern chains were established in the Middle East, they also bought from the wholesale market. The supermarkets are now claiming to buy most of their fruit and vegetables from farmers who apply “good agricultural practices”. The majority of the fruit and vegetables on sale in the supermarkets during the visit were imported from reputable international companies or from the developed world where it should be expected that the product had full traceability. However, there was still significant shelf space given to Indian produce – for example, the shelf space given to Indian onions was about four times that of all other supplies4. The manager stated that these onions had been bought from a reputable importer – but no residue testing had been undertaken. Spinneys are sourcing their Indian onions from the Tata group in India in an effort to get consistent supplies and quality. No doubt, in future, the Dubai and other Middle East supermarkets will implement the standards of traceability and SPS levels demanded by their European counterparts, but it is not happening yet. Given that the Indian produce is much cheaper than imports from other countries, it leads to a significant number of price-conscious shoppers moving their custom away from the supermarket chains. In addition to the retail sector there is a significant food service sector. The biggest Dubai supplier to this sector (Barakat) either imports produce or buys on the wholesale market. This company has its own laboratories and claims to test the vegetables for pesticide residues and claims that they do not have a problem with any of their suppliers, including imports from India. The suppliers to the food service sector do use a significant portion of Indian produce – for example, peeled and chopped Indian onions were supplied to the venue for the Eurofruit Congress! The relative size of the modern retail and food service sectors has been estimated by Planet Retail (Table 2). The modern grocery retail sector accounts for almost 70% of grocery sales. It is probably safe to assume that it also accounts for about the same percentage of fruit and vegetable sales. It must be noted that the retail sector covers only the “modern” outlets – and not the smaller “Mom & Pop stores” or the retail markets, so the actual percentage of fruit and vegetable sales will be smaller. 3 In other words companies owned by Indians would trade with Indian exporters. 4 The Indian onions were retailing for AED 2.50/kg compared to Australian at AED 4.50/kg.


Table 2 . Size of the different sectors for grocery products in the UAE, 2005 (USD millions)

Sector Total value percentage Grocery retail sales 6,503 69% Food service 2,879 31%

Total 9,382 100%

Source – Planet Retail web site The supermarkets are most highly developed in the UAE – the supermarket chains account for about 25% of grocery sales, and this is projected to rise to 36% by 2009 (Table 3). Again, these data do not cover either the small shops or retail markets, so they over-estimate the supermarkets’ importance in the total market. The retail markets are less developed in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Table 3 Modern grocery outlets - Percentage share of main players

United Arab Emirates Saudi Arabia Kuwait Supermarket Chain 2004

% 2009

% 2004

% 2009

% 2004

% 2009

%

Carrefour 8.8 12.0 0.1 4.7 Consumer Co-op 9.8 9.9 Casino 5.7 0.4 2.9 Choitrum 3.8 4.3 Spinneys 2.9 4.2 Panda 3.2 6.2 Al Othaim 2.9 3.6 Giant Stores 2.2 2.5 Sultan Centre 6.9 7.6 Emke Group 0.7 1.7

Sub-total 25.3 36.1 8.8 19.9 7.6 9.3 Others 74.7 63.9 91.2 80.1 92.4 90.7

Source – Planet Retail – from proceedings of Eurofruit Middle East Congress, September 2005 It can be argued that exports from India will come under increasing pressure to improve their SPS standards as the importance of supermarkets increases. However, given that the supermarkets want to stock Indian produce because it is cheap (in the case of onions), or a good source of traditional Asian vegetables – the pressure for SPS conformance might not be as great as in the EU or USA. Also, the Middle East markets are growing quickly – the GDPs of UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are growing at between 5 and 7%/year5 - so in absolute terms, if the supermarket chains reduce the opportunities for Indian produce due to SPS issues, this could be more than compensated for by the increase in the total market. However, it is important for the Indian farmers to recognize that if they can meet the standards that the Middle East supermarkets should set, it would be a very significant market opportunity. In summary, there are three main market segments for fruit and vegetables in the Middle East:

The modern grocery outlets – which includes the main supermarket chains and a wide range of shops

5 Data presented at the Eurofruit Congress, taken originally from www.cia/gov/publication/factbook.


Traditional, or old-fashioned, outlets – which includes the “Mom & Pop corner shops” and fruit and vegetable markets, and

The Food service sector

4 Segmentation of supply

Fruit and vegetables are imported into Dubai, and thence the rest of the Middle East from a wide range of countries. These suppliers could be segmented as:

Developed countries, eg apples from the USA and New Zealand, onions from Argentina

and a wide range of European produce, Developing countries who supply the main supermarkets in the EU and USA, eg South

African citrus and apples as well as some produce from Egypt, Kenya, China. Countries that target their migrant workers and which have basic quality standards. The

main country is India, but there is also produce from Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka.

The developed countries target the Middle East because it is a significant market and it represents an opportunity to increase exports. The quality standards applied are lower than those applied to the EU and USA – in terms of physical quality, but it is claimed that the SPS standards are not compromised. For example, there is greater tolerance for the size specifications of fruit, but the produce is still grown on farms that have good agricultural practices. The developing countries that supply the supermarket trade in the EU and USA also recognize that the Middle East is a sizeable market and a good way to expand the size of their market opportunity. Again, these countries recognize that there is an opportunity to sell some produce that does quite meet the physical standards set by the major international retailers.

Importers of produce from both the above two types of supplier do not have any SPS problems – and do not expect any in the future. Their logic is that if the exporters meet the EU and USA standards for issues such as Maximum Residue Limits (MRL) for pesticides, then it can be assumed that there would not be problems in the Middle East. The produce from these suppliers is supplied in smart, modern packaging and is often pre-packed. In contrast to the above, exports from India have traditionally been grown for the local market and perhaps there has been an effort to physically grade the produce prior to export6. But the SPS standards are virtually the same as for their local market. The packaging is very rudimentary – and the product is often retailed loose. The exports from India are generally targeted at the more price-conscious buyers and consumers who want traditional fruits and vegetables. There are a few products from India that cross a wider range of consumers, eg mangoes and grapes, because they are both seasonal (so there is less competition from other countries) and have a reputation for being good produce. The food service industry claims that it takes cognizance of the sources of the raw material it uses and prefers to use imports from countries where it believes the quality standards are higher – but because Indian imports are cheaper, then they are certainly used in some of the 5-star hotel restaurants.

5 The role of the authorities regarding SPS issues

6 To remove over and under-sized, rotten or obviously damaged product.


The Director of Protection & Plant Quarantine is in charge of SPS issues for the UAE Government. This department has two main functions – plant quarantine inspections and ensuring food safety. The responsibility for inspecting fruit and vegetable imports has been devolved to the Dubai Municipality. The inspectors rely on the phytosanitary certificates produced by the exporting Government to confirm that there are no diseases. The inspectors are meant to take samples for pesticide residue analysis – it is claimed that sampling has been taking place for five years and that the analysis is being performed in an internationally accredited laboratory in Dubai. The Government applies Codex standards for pesticide residues. The rigor of this inspection and analysis process is obviously questionable – the importers claim that they did not know that the inspectors took samples. In addition, there is a concept that as far as fruit and vegetables are concerned, the Government does not want to interfere with the import and re-export unless absolutely necessary. The biggest company involved with supplying the food service sector (Barakat) has its own laboratory and undertakes analysis of the produce it supplies. It claims not to have had any problems with pesticide residue levels on Indian produce.


Annex 4. TABLES Several tables are taken from the database developed for the SPS-LMM project by the consultant. The full set of tables can be obtained from the project’s office. NET TRADE DATA - SAUDI ARABIA Exports - Imports Exports - Imports Exports - Imports Beef-Buff Sheep-Goat Poultry ('000 mt) ('000 mt) ('000 mt)

1990 -44.68 -22.46 -210.09 1991 -60.88 -30.53 -238.35 1992 -59.41 -33 -169.65 1993 -21.9 -31.42 -164.22 1994 -24.08 -36.97 -135.09 1995 -69.36 -47.49 -255.5 1996 -51.85 -44.67 -229.56 1997 -47.53 -50.72 -194 1998 -60.64 -52.31 -252.59 1999 -37.4 -48.67 -360.23 2000 -60.3 -56.95 -263.42 2001 -36.31 -43.61 -279.62 2002 -57.91 -44.82 -283.45 2003 -70.95 -54.57 -364.04 2004 -52.47 -46.64 -437

3 yr ann. Avg. -60.44 -48.68 -361.50 LIVESTOCK IMPORT DATA - BAHRAIN

Cattle Goat Sheep

Year Imports Imports Imports 1990 6,940 20,000 350,000 1991 2,017 17,000 260,000 1992 1,610 20,000 330,000 1993 2,891 51,164 315,000 1994 1,763 77,508 400,000 1995 1,500 118,759 446,148 1996 1,500 66,254 291,410 1997 540 19,168 319,970 1998 1,400 51,406 314,528 1999 1,500 40,564 468,256 2000 1,967 1,661 356,823 2001 4,682 3,042 428,028 2002 8,146 15,005 441,302 2003 6,143 28,509 386,523 2004 5,982 18,616 346,775

3 yr ann avg 6,757 20,710 391,533


MEAT CONSUMPTION DATA - UAE Year Beef Consumption Shoat Chicken Consump

1000 tons 1000 tons 1000 tons 1990 24.170 39.360 69.610 1991 24.230 39.490 70.560 1992 26.090 42.460 54.220 1993 27.240 44.800 65.600 1994 38.600 54.050 80.250 1995 46.900 55.850 105.810 1996 41.970 56.390 123.120 1997 26.540 49.640 112.020 1998 13.990 46.000 136.790 1999 25.880 41.500 144.050 2000 22.610 35.460 138.080 2001 15.520 33.860 158.810 2002 31.450 46.380 162.690 2003 23.410 36.050 202.000 2004 13.000 58.890 192.490 2005

3 yr avg 22.620 47.107 185.727 con/cap 8.358 17.406 68.625 Self-suffic 0.419 0.522 0.187 LIVESTOCK IMPORT DATA – UAE Cattle Goat Sheep Year Imports Imports Imports

1990 6,500 0 1,100,000 1991 6,000 0 1,580,000 1992 5,600 0 1,450,000 1993 7,000 0 1,720,000 1994 18,000 0 1,760,000 1995 23,000 881,038 1,815,000 1996 3,960 603,787 1,846,000 1997 4,420 939,586 1,764,000 1998 5,985 1,038,890 1,328,000 1999 57,900 1,029,000 975,000 2000 35,450 855,000 817,000 2001 2,100 1,040,520 690,000 2002 4,592 654,814 827,815 2003 70,518 447,403 623,478 2004 73,000 815,155 585,000

3 yr ann avg 49,370 639,124 678,764


NET TRADE DATA – KUWAIT Year Net Trade Beef=Buf Net Trade S-G Net Trade Chicken

1000 tons 1000 tons 1000 tons 1990 -2.31 -2.44 -14.59 1991 -5 -1.61 -17.09 1992 -11.57 -5.02 -38.1 1993 -17.47 -4.81 -49.93 1994 -15.13 -4.59 -43.81 1995 -15.94 -3.74 -54.11 1996 -14.98 -4.11 -51.41 1997 -16.29 -4 -51.07 1998 -16.85 -3.65 -52.07 1999 -17.4 -3.58 -55.02 2000 -15.62 -3.76 -61.6 2001 -12.69 -4.45 -71.91 2002 -5.45 -4.45 -56.13 2003 -5.46 -4.62 -78.6 2004 -3.52 -5.48 -115.76

3 yr ann. Avg. -4.81 -4.85 -83.50 LIVESTOCK IMPORT DATA - OMAN Cattle Goat Sheep Year Imports Imports Imports Head head head

1990 507 76,622 318,298 1991 368 130,999 373,456 1992 15 205,095 315,220 1993 166 76,766 487,376 1994 212 96,124 631,483 1995 129 753,152 570,713 1996 165 644,942 513,845 1997 9 926,939 441,633 1998 7 886,690 530,855 1999 310 851,170 477,944 2000 318 750,404 499,377 2001 0 1,113,813 460,803 2002 2 754,607 488,592 2003 1,210 850,310 328,612 2004 453 961,816 332,985 2005

3 yr ann avg 555 855,578 383,396


NET TRADE DATA - YEMEN Beef-Buff Sheep/Goats Chicken Year Net Trade Net Trade Net Trade

1000 tons 1000 tons 1000 tons 1990 -2.06 -7.97 -9.21 1991 -3.05 -0.02 -12.75 1992 -4.04 0 -6.45 1993 -6.35 -0.72 -28.08 1994 -6.65 -0.05 -24.5 1995 -4.01 -0.06 -17.79 1996 -2.28 -0.14 -21.2 1997 -2.72 -0.13 -22.65 1998 -4.76 -0.21 -31.19 1999 -3.07 -0.08 -34.54 2000 -4.19 -0.37 -60.2 2001 -3.95 -0.25 -62.34 2002 -5.19 0 -80.09 2003 -6.11 -0.39 -99.95 2004 -3.06 -1.07 -90.4

3 yr ann. Avg. -4.79 -0.49 -90.15

NET TRADE - EGYPT Beef Sheep/Goats Chicken Year Net Trade Net Trade Net Trade

1000 tons 1000 tons 1000 tons 1990 -118.6 -0.13 -0.54 1991 -113.43 0.25 -1.31 1992 -116.31 1.55 -0.24 1993 -136.88 1.87 0.18 1994 -156.42 -0.2 0.18 1995 -143.11 0.3 -0.12 1996 -114.58 0.26 -0.05 1997 -128.53 -0.6 0.31 1998 -130.36 -0.88 0.24 1999 -172.84 -0.89 -1.86 2000 -190.34 -1.99 -3.62 2001 -92.55 -1.92 -3.98 2002 -135.04 -0.57 -4.8 2003 -116.98 -0.25 0.5 2004 -89.78 -0.15 0.11

3 yr ann. Avg. -113.93 -0.32 -1.40


NET TRADE - LEBANON Beef Sheep-Goats Chicken Year Net Trade Net Trade Net Trade

1000 tons 1000 tons 1000 tons 1990 -13.21 -0.1 -5.5 1991 -27.47 -0.5 -4.75 1992 -22.23 -0.2 -7 1993 -17.3 -0.2 -10 1994 -18.65 -0.15 -4 1995 -23.56 -0.15 -2 1996 -10.77 -0.12 -0.28 1997 -19.8 -0.27 -0.47 1998 -21.14 -0.37 -3.05 1999 -18.55 -0.3 -1.5 2000 -21.3 -0.62 -1.42 2001 -12.32 -0.52 -2.31 2002 -19.56 -0.63 -2.31 2003 -27.04 -0.41 -0.37 2004 -18.12 -0.68 0.95

3 yr ann. Avg. -21.57 -0.57 -0.58

NET TRADE - JORDAN Year Net Trade Beef=Buf Net Trade S-G Net Trade Chicken

1000 tons 1000 tons 1000 tons 1990 -14.78 -8.88 -13.59 1991 -11.12 -13.76 -24.5 1992 -7.03 -17.03 -7.76 1993 -24.2 -19.61 -3.34 1994 -20.48 -13.38 -3.89 1995 -17.06 -8.57 1.32 1996 -8.53 -8.16 -2.47 1997 -20.3 -8.73 -3.15 1998 -14.9 -12.01 -5.18 1999 -18.5 -9.86 -2.07 2000 -24.2 -9.17 -1.25 2001 -23.98 -11.29 -1.45 2002 -27.99 -8.63 -2.1 2003 -19 -9.31 -1.97 2004 -11.25 -13.51 -10.4

3 yr ann. Avg. -19.41 -10.48 -4.82


NET TRADE DATA – LIBYA Beef-Buff Sheep/Goats Year Net Trade Net Trade 1000 tons 1000 tons

1990 -3.38 -1.29 1991 -1.81 -1.04 1992 -2.42 -0.5 1993 -4.01 -0.2 1994 -5.02 -0.3 1995 -4.21 -0.34 1996 -4.21 -0.33 1997 -4.21 -1.19 1998 -2.13 -1.13 1999 -0.59 -0.61 2000 -1.42 -1.2 2001 -0.89 -1.2 2002 -1.25 -12.2 2003 -0.97 -1.37 2004 -20.22 -15.28

3 yr ann. Avg. -7.48 -9.62 LIVESTOCK IMPORT DATA - QATAR Cattle Goat Sheep Year Imports Imports Imports head head head

1990 194 0 679,730 1991 128 0 835,620 1992 95 0 630,295 1993 85 0 631,447 1994 200 0 713,809 1995 211 2,366 671,073 1996 900 2,281 362,000 1997 1,200 5,100 621,000 1998 1,100 983 468,000 1999 900 10 343,000 2000 636 172 524,387 2001 725 1,615 493,657 2002 199 988 507,298 2003 475 7,761 441,894 2004 211 13,057 329,488

3 yr ann avg 295 7,269 426,227


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