meat'ing future food demands
DESCRIPTION
TEDxUMN talk on meat consumption and the future of global agriculture.TRANSCRIPT
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‘Meat’ing Future Food Demands
Emily Cassidy
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Thomas Malthus1766 – 1834
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Population Growth is exponential...
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Bill
ions
160,000B.C.
100,000B.C.
10,000B.C.
7,000B.C.
6,000B.C.
5,000B.C.
4,000B.C.
3,000B.C.
2,000B.C.
1,000B.C.
1A.D.
1,000A.D.
2,000A.D.
8
9
7
2,150A.D.
2011 – 7 Billion2011 – 7 Billion
1945 – 2.3 Billion1945 – 2.3 Billion
2050 – 9.1 Billion2050 – 9.1 Billion
1492 – 500 Million1492 – 500 MillionFirst Modern Humans
First Modern Humans
1776 – 1 Billion1776 – 1 Billion
Source: TCP
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Crop production can’t keep Crop production can’t keep up...up...
Yie
ld (
tons
/ hect
are
)
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Malthusian
catastrophe
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Global population growth is Global population growth is slowing...slowing...
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Malthus underestimated...
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Norman Borlaug
Dramatically increased wheat yields
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Was Malthus wrong?
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Image: NASA
Growing Demandsfor Food
Growing Demandsfor Food
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x2
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7 2
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4
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Image: NASA
Diets MatterDiets Matter
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113030
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10%10%
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million calories per hectareMillion calories per hectare
0 4 821 3 5 76
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1 ton maize 1 ton maize
food
feed
biofuels
Calories Calories delivered to delivered to
peoplepeople
Calories available in food systemCalories available in food system
Calories “lost”Calories “lost”
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Fraction of crop calories that become foodFraction of crop calories that become food
0 0.5 1
36% of calories used for animal feed36% of calories used for animal feed
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Fraction of crop calories that become foodFraction of crop calories that become food
0 0.5 1
59% of produced calories become food
59% of produced calories become food
50% of produced protein become food
50% of produced protein become food
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33%
of calories go to feed
ChinaChina
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62%
of calories are delivered
ChinaChina
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67%
of calories go to feed
United StatesUnited States
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34%
of calories are delivered
United StatesUnited States
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5.98.4
5.4 66.5
13.5
16
10
People fed per hectarePeople fed per hectareassuming 2,700 kcal per dayassuming 2,700 kcal per day
People fed per hectarePeople fed per hectareassuming 2,700 kcal per dayassuming 2,700 kcal per day
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Per Capita Meat Consumption, 2009
Pou
nd
s p
er
cap
ita
Source: FAO
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~10 people per hectare~10 people per hectare
Possible people fed per hectarePossible people fed per hectare
0 2 4 6 8 10
~10 billion people~10 billion people
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Actual Food SupplyActual Food Supply
~6 people per hectare~6 people per hectare~6 billion people~6 billion people
Actual people fed per hectareActual people fed per hectare
0 2 4 6 8 10
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Where do we go from here?
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1992 2008image:s: NASA
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Ray et al., 2012
MAIZE - yield trends
Yields increasing
Stagnating
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Ray et al., 2012
RICE - yield trends
Yields increasing
Stagnating
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1 billion 2 billion
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Thomas Malthus
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What can YOU do about
this?
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Increase Calories Available Increase Calories Available by 70 %by 70 %
Million calories per hectare
0 1 2 3 4+
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Billion people4+
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300 million people
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Image: NASA
Diets MatterDiets Matter
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Image: NASA
Thanks!Thanks!