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Rockies' Arenado will play for U.S. in Classic By Thomas Harding / MLB.com | @harding_at_mlb | November 13th, 2016 DENVER -- Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado announced Sunday that he will play for Team USA in the 2017 World Baseball Classic. Arenado had a choice, since his mother is from Puerto Rico. "It was a really tough decision; I was stressing out about it," Arenado said. "Obviously, Puerto Rico means a lot to me because of my mom. But the U.S. is the country I was born in, and I've never had a chance to represent Team USA and represent the country. "I want to play for them and I want to go far with them. It's going to be a lot of fun." Nationals pitcher Max Scherzer and Rays pitcher Chris Archer have committed to the event, which takes place during Spring Training, and Arenado said, "I want to play defense behind those pitchers -- it's something I want to do." This year, Arenado earned the National League's Rawlings Gold Glove Award, becoming the first third baseman in history to win it each of his first four seasons, as well as the Wilson Defensive Player of the Year Award and the Fielding Bible Award as the best Major Leaguer at his position. Arenado also received his second straight Louisville Slugger Silver Slugger Award, after tying for the NL lead in homers with 41 and leading the league with 133 RBIs. The idea of representing the country came up once before. "I was asked, but it didn't work out," Arenado said. "But now I want to represent those colors and represent the country I was born in." Late in the regular season, Arenado said he was going to play in the Classic, although which team he'd represent would be a difficult decision. But he has adjusted his offseason to be ready for the intensity of the international tournament. "I'll start hitting a little bit earlier than normal, but other than that, I'll stick to my routine," Arenado said. "When I play Spring Training games in March, I give those everything I have. I don't take it easy or pick some games where I don't try. But the adrenaline rush I'm going to have is going to be more than a Spring Training game, so I've got to get ready for that."

MEDIA CLIPS – November 14, 2016

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Black's intangibles make him uniquely qualified to helm Rox Manager has connections in organization, experience, communication skills By Thomas Harding / MLB.com | @harding_at_mlb | November 12th, 2016 SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- As Bud Black takes over as the Rockies' manager, it's a good time to examine the intangible traits that make him special. Connections run deep Black, 59, was a left-handed pitcher for the Royals from 1982-87 when Rockies special assistant and pitching expert Rick Mathews managed, scouted and coached in the system. When Black was with the Giants from 1991-92, Rockies Minor League hitting coordinator Duane Espy managed and coached in the system. "I was around [Black] during Spring Training and saw his work ethic, attention to detail and the way he connected with all the players, not just the pitchers," Espy said. Black's former teammates in the Rockies' chain include Minor League pitching coaches Doug Jones (with the Indians) and Dave Burba (Giants), and Triple-A manager Glenallen Hill (Blue Jays). Class A pitching coach Brandon Emanuel was an Angels prospect when Black was the Major League pitching coach. The closest baseball connection is with Mark Wiley, who since 2013 has guided the Rockies' pitching philosophy in the Majors and Minors as the director of pitching operations. Wiley was Black's pitching coach during two stints with the Indians, 1987-90 and in 1995. In their first conversation after Black arrived in a trade with Kansas City, Wiley asked him for the best advice he'd received from a pitching coach. "Cloyd Boyer with the Royals taught [Black] that there were two or three times in a game when you have to prove you're a Major League pitcher," Wiley said. "Your back is back against the wall, traffic on the bases, and you have to turn it up. So I started calling those 'CB's, for Cloyd Boyer." Wiley incorporated that into his teaching. Pitchers in the Rockies' current young wave, such as Jon Gray and Tyler Anderson, have been using what Black brought with him from K.C. "Even today, our pitchers will say during a game, 'Here's one of those CBs," Wiley said. "Bud got a kick out of that when I told him." Well-rounded experience Black's playing career ended when the Indians released him in late 1995. But they showed respect by keeping him in uniform and let him work with pitchers through a World Series run that ended with a loss to the Braves. Then-Indians GM Jon Hart hired him in a teaching, scouting and player development capacity. Often he'd put on a uniform and go to Minor League affiliates to throw batting practice or work with pitchers on assignments for Cleveland's then-player development director, one-time Rockies general manager Dan O'Dowd. "They said, 'Whatever direction you want to take this, whether it's a track to get back on the field or front office, we'll let you decide,'" said Black, who settled his itch to get back into uniform by becoming the Angels' pitching coach under manager Mike Scioscia in 2000 and winning a World Series ring two years later. After the Padres dismissed him as their skipper in 2015, Black rejoined the Angels as a special assistant to general manager Billy Eppler and brushed up on skills he couldn't when he was managing the Padres. "He'd go to the SEC Tournament with me as we were preparing for the Draft and go to games starting at 8 in the morning, and we left at 12:45 one night," Eppler said. "He was thirsty and intellectually curious."'How does this work?' 'Yeah, I'll head out and see this high school guy and this college player, then jump over to watch our Burlington [Iowa] affiliate.'" According to Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich, "In positions like this, breadth of experience can only help."

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Knowing how to communicate Current Angels pitching coach Charles Nagy, a young pitcher with the Indians when Black was around, said Black mentored him without being overbearing. "[Black is] very subtle with a lot of things," Nagy said. "And he's right more times than not. He's left-handed, I'm right, but I'd watch him do day-to-day stuff and say, 'Yeah, that works.' And he's interested in you. "I call him a friend. He's the reason my wife and I moved to San Diego and I sent my kids to St. James Academy. My wife and I would travel and were looking for a place, and Bud and his wife said, 'You might want to come visit us.' Here we are all these years later." Black said his teaching style came from his managers when he was a player. Dick Howser (with the Royals) worked on each player's confidence. Roger Craig (Giants) helped his team gain perspective by having players take time with stadium workers. Dusty Baker (Giants) demonstrated that it's OK to allow players to show intensity during the game. The Angels staff with Scioscia and future managers Joe Maddon and Ron Roenicke, as well as Alfredo Griffin and Mickey Hatcher, provided insight. In meetings, Black absorbed the thought processes of catchers and position players, the logistics of running a club day to day, and the information that guides decisions. Black has passed on the knowledge. From his 2013 Padres coaching/scouting/baseball operations group came four eventual managers: Dave Roberts (Dodgers), Brad Ausmus (Tigers), A.J. Hinch (Astros) and Rick Renteria (White Sox). But it comes back to players. "That's what I do; I talk to my players," Black said. "People have asked, 'What's your managerial style?' Open communication is important. In this day and age, players are curious about what's going on, and it has to come from the manager and the coaches." Onetime Rockies shortstop Clint Barmes played his final big league games with Black's Padres in 2015, quietly scrapping for time behind the younger Alexi Amarista. Barmes didn't ask, but Black explained his playing-time decisions and checked in with Barmes periodically. Barmes noticed that Black's treatment of a player didn't swing with the player's performance. "It's not that [Black] needed to explain things to me, but it felt kind of nice," Barmes said. "Sometimes, not meaning to, if a guy is not playing well, people will try to keep their distance from that guy. What I found is that you maybe you need to do that more with guys who are struggling, to remind them there's a reason you're here."

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Arenado named a Defensive Player of the Year All-Star receives honor for Major League third basemen By Manny Randhawa / MLB.com | November 11th, 2016 Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado was named the Wilson Defensive Player of the Year for the position on Friday night. The honor comes on the heels of Arenado winning his fourth Rawlings Gold Glove Award in four Major League seasons. The Defensive Player of the Year Awards were the latest in a series of honors for Arenado's defensive prowess in 2016, following up on the Rawlings Gold Gloves and leading into the upcoming Esurance MLB Awards, which have two key defensive categories -- Best Defensive Player and Best Defensive Play. The 25-year-old Arenado, a two-time National League All-Star, led all Major League third basemen in defensive runs saved, with 20, according to Fangraphs. The next closest were Adrian Beltre of the Rangers -- who won the American League Gold Glove Award for the position -- and the Mariners' Kyle Seager, each of whom finished with 15 defensive runs saved. For the second consecutive season, Arenado also led the NL in home runs (41), RBIs (133, which also led Majors) and total bases (352). Wilson, which established this award in 2012, considers various defensive metrics in determining the nine individual and one team winners. That formula includes defensive WAR (25 percent), Defensive Runs Saved (25 percent), Inside Edge fielding ratings (20 percent), Inside Edge arm ratings (20 percent) and fielding percentage (10 percent). A different formula is used for pitchers and catchers. Red Sox outfielder Mookie Betts won the Wilson award for best overall defensive player, and the San Francisco Giants won the Wilson award for best overall defensive team in 2016.

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Holliday considering return to Rockies Veteran would likely play first base in Colorado By Daniel Kramer / MLB.com | November 12th, 2016 DENVER -- Speculation surrounding Matt Holliday and a potential return to the Rockies has gained momentum over the past week, and the 13-year veteran indicated Friday that he would give great regard to a potential offer from the club that drafted him. With a dense array of outfield talent in Colorado, Holliday would figure to play first base, where there is a void after Mark Reynolds' contract expired. The Rockies could also benefit from having Holliday's right-handed bat, one that blasted 20 homers and drove in 62 RBIs this past season, in an otherwise lefty-heavy lineup. "It's certainly something that's part of the consideration process, but there's so much more to it," general manager Jeff Bridich said earlier this week. "It's supply and demand and what's out there through trade, potentially. I don't want to limit ourselves by saying we must have a right-handed first baseman or we must have a left-handed one. We'll keep an open mind, and the goal is to add the best player we possibly can to the lineup." But the hurdle could be his cost. Holliday is expected to earn a deal of around $10 million per year, which is nearly quadruple what the Rockies paid Reynolds last year, and the two had similar offensive numbers. Holliday battled injury the past two years -- playing a combined 183 games -- and finished with a career-low .246 average and .322 on-base percentage. "I don't have any idea of what my market will be, but if [the Rockies] were competitive with their offer, I'd definitely consider it," Holliday said, according to KMGH-TV 7. The Rockies currently have Stephen Cardullo and Jordan Patterson listed at first, but they don't figure to be everyday players just yet. And left-handed prospect Ryan McMahon has developed nicely in Double-A. It points to a possibility of avoiding a long-term deal for a first baseman. "Thinking about free agents at first base, the length of the contract, if we were to get a free-agent first baseman, there's a lot more to that with that specific person than there is as it relates to Ryan McMahon," Bridich said. "There is a balance -- we want to push players to develop, but we don't want to rush players to develop," Bridich said. "There's a fine line." Owner Dick Monfort said on Monday that the club will increase payroll from its record $112 million last year, but by how much remains an intrigue. The hiring of manager Bud Black this week has brought renewed optimism to Colorado after six straight losing seasons. "There's a difference between talented and good, and we have talent," Bridich said at Black's introductory news conference on Monday. "The next step is to become a good team -- a good and consistent team. There's kind of a fundamental difference there." In addition to first base -- where Holliday has played just 10 games, all in 2016 -- the Rockies plan to address their bullpen, which blew 28 saves and had an MLB-worst 5.13 ERA last year. However, Bridich has indicated they likely won't be among the suitors for one of the blue-chip relievers on the market. Holliday was selected by Colorado in the seventh round of the 1998 Draft, and he played his first five seasons there, helping the Rockies win the 2007 National League pennant. He was dealt to Oakland in the '08 offseason as part of the Carlos Gonzalez deal, then again to St. Louis before the non-waiver Trade Deadline the following year.

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Bud Black — baseball gentleman, fiery competitor — trying to take Rockies to next level Black known as a big competitor with a bigger heart By PATRICK SAUNDERS | psaunders@denverpost.com | November 11, 2016 at 6:36 pm Harry Ralston “Bud” Black was a big deal in Longview, Wash., a timber town of 35,000 people about 45 miles north of Portland. Athletically gifted and intensely competitive, he excelled on the basketball court and on the mound for Mark Morris High School. But that’s not the only thing that made the Rockies’ new manager exceptional. “We’d be walking down the hallway and some stoner would walk by and say, ‘Hey, Harry, how’s it going?’ And he’d say, ‘Great, Freddie, how ya doing?’ ” recalled Kirc Roland, a close friend who has known Black since the fifth grade. “Me, being the big jock, would say, ‘How do you know that guy?’ But Buddy would just say, ‘It’s cool, he’s a good guy.’ “Buddy is just one of those big-hearted people. The stoners, the jocks, the nerds, the kids taking special education, they all loved Buddy Black.” But Black’s competitive fire always smolders just beneath the surface. Although he appreciates his reputation as one of baseball’s gentleman, he doesn’t want that misconstrued. “I like to win. I like to compete — at lot,” Black said. That’s always been obvious to his longtime friend. “If we went to play pinball, Blackie was going to win the pinball game. If we were playing basketball, he would come up with the most creative dunk,” said Roland, a longtime athletic director at Lower Columbia Community College and the news and sports director for KLOG Radio in Kelso, Wash. “He was a winner and he was a quiet killer. He would beat you with a smile on his face and that would (tick) you off. But then he would look at you with a smile on his face and he’d be like, ‘Hey, man, we’re all good!’ ” Black’s combination of people skills, passion for sports and fierce desire to succeed has served him well in his chosen profession. He has played it cool with hot-headed umpires, stood his ground with high-paid prima donnas and exhibited patience for slumping sluggers. Baseball has been his job for 37 of his 59 years. The Rockies hired him Monday, hoping to reap the rewards of his experience and personality . MAKING OF A PITCHER Black’s first love was basketball, but until he had a growth spurt his senior year of high school, he was undersized. So the left-hander concentrated on baseball. In spring 1975, his senior season, Black finished 9-1 with a 2.52 ERA and also hit .359 with 20 RBIs, helping lead the Mark Morris Monarchs to a third-place finish in the state tournament. Considering that the Monarchs had won the state title in his sophomore season and were state runner-ups his junior year, Black’s senior season was a downer, but he did enough to put himself on the baseball map. He surprised many by staying home to attended Lower Columbia Community College, but Black always had a plan in mind. He wanted to learn from coach Ed Cheff, who would go on to lead Lewis-Clark State College, in Idaho, to an unprecedented 16 NAIA World Series titles. After two years playing for the Red Devils, Black set his sights higher. He targeted San Diego State University, coached by the legendary Jim Dietz, a man whom Black calls one of the most influential in his life. Dietz had previously coached at Lower Columbia — and Black figured that connection would help. Still, it was Black’s own self-belief and persistence that earned him a scholarship with the Aztecs. “Buddy drove all the way down to San Diego but Coach Dietz wasn’t around, so Buddy wrote a handwritten note and shoved it under Coach Dietz’s office door,” recalled Roland, who ended up rooming with Black at SDSU. “The note basically said, ‘I’m a left-handed pitcher and I want to play for you.’ ”

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Dietz had never seen Black pitch, either in person or on film, but he called up Cheff, received a solid recommendation and offered Black a scholarship without so much as a tryout. Black, who was a teammate with the late Tony Gwynn, set an SDSU record with 16 strikeouts in a game. His senior season, Black finished 7-1 with a 3.35 ERA, good enough to get drafted by the Seattle Mariners in the 17th round. Black, who calls himself “a late bloomer,” was never a hard thrower, his fastball coming in at 87-89 mph. But he had grown to be a strong, lean, 6-foot-2, 180-pound man. More important, he was learning how to be a pitcher. BIG-LEAGUE PITCHER Black pitched 15 major-league seasons with five teams, including seven with the Kansas City Royals, with whom he won the 1985 World Series. He made his debut in 1981 as a September call-up with the Mariners, at age 24, in just his second professional season. However, he was traded to Kansas City shortly after that season. He finished his career with a 121-116 record, with 32 complete games, 12 shutouts, 11 saves and a 3.84 ERA. His best season was in 1984, when he posted a 17-12 record, 3.12 ERA and an American League-best 1.128 WHIP. Although his numbers were not nearly as good in 1985, that championship season was his most gratifying. Black’s playoff heroics came in Game 6 of the American League Championship Series against Toronto when he came on in relief in the sixth inning and pitched 3⅓ scoreless innings in the Royals’ 5-3 victory. During his one World Series start against the Cardinals, Black gave up three runs over five innings and earned a loss in Game 4, putting St. Louis on the verge of clinching. However, Kansas City rallied from a 3-1 series deficit to take the title in seven games. “Bud was instrumental to that team’s success,” said catcher Jim Sundberg, whom the Royals acquired from Texas in 1985 because of his ability to help mold a young Kansas City rotation that included Charlie Leibrandt (age 28), Bret Saberhagen (21), Danny Jackson (23), Mark Gubicza (22) and Black (28). “Buddy was ultra-competitive, but he was calm and was never a hot head,” Sundberg said. “He was easy to work with and he very much followed directions given by me.” Black, never blessed with raw power, was very much a thinking man’s pitcher, mixing and matching a fastball, slider, changeup and curve. He was popular and loose in the clubhouse, but intensely focused on the mound. “There is a little bit of an attorney in Buddy,” Sundberg said with a laugh. “Attorneys will get in there and filet each other in a courtroom and then go have dinner together. That’s Buddy.” The second half of Black’s career was not as successful as the first, but he certainly did well for himself. He had an 83-82 career record when he signed a four-year, $10 million contract with the San Francisco Giants before the 1991 season. That was a relative fortune at the time, and some snidely referred to him as “the Mediocre Millionaire.” But Black was a pro’s pro and he had discovered that baseball would be his life’s work. MAKING OF A MANAGER “I started thinking about being a coach or manager late in my career,” Black said. “It probably started in Cleveland and then crystallized at the end of my career in San Francisco. I was able to have conversations with younger players, guys like John Farrell (now the Boston Red Sox manager) and Greg Swindell and other young pitchers.” When Black retired as a player, he became a special assistant with the Indians. “When I first retired, I worked in the front office in Cleveland with John Hart, Dan O’Dowd and Mark Shapiro,” Black recalled. “It was a tremendous education. What I learned from those three guys still influences me. After the 1999 season, I felt like I wanted to get back on the field. Those guys encouraged me, said that’s where I belonged.” So Black served as pitching coach for the Angels under manager Mike Scioscia from 2000 to 2006 and was part of the 2002 World Series championship team that included current Cubs manager Joe Maddon as its bench coach. From Scioscia, Black learned the importance of open dialogue, trusting in his staff and team building.

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For example, during spring training 2012, after the Padres traded for Casey Kelly, a pitcher who could have played quarterback at Tennessee, Black blocked out one morning of practice for a football competition, with passing drills for every player who had been a high school quarterback. “He is a player’s manager,” said Clint Barmes, a former Rockies shortstop who played for Black in San Diego in 2015. “It was just the way he carries himself around the clubhouse and in the dugout. He kept the team loose, he kept the clubhouse loose. When it was time to work, we worked, but he sure was fun to work for.” Black’s pitching background paid off in San Diego, albeit with a boost from pitcher-friendly Petco Park. In his 15 years as manager and pitching coach, his pitching staffs finished with one of the five lowest ERAs in baseball seven times. “He’s a very consistent guy and his knowledge of pitching is evident,” said former Rockies catcher Nick Hundley, who played under Black for seven seasons in San Diego. “He does what he needs to allow his pitchers to succeed. But the biggest thing, to me, is that he cares about the players more than he cares about keeping his job.” Black managed the Padres for eight seasons and part of a ninth, finishing with a 649-713 record. He was fired in June 2015 when the Padres were 32-33. Padres general manager A.J. Preller, who had dramatically reshaped the lineup and wanted an instant winner, was not satisfied. Plus, he wanted his own man in charge. Although none of Black’s teams made the playoffs, his 2010 team — which had the second-lowest payroll in the majors and $22 million less than any other team in the National League West – was in first place for much of the summer. San Francisco overtook the Padres in September on its way to winning the World Series. Nonetheless, Black was named National League manager of the year. INTO THE FUTURE Roland is thrilled that the best man at his wedding is taking over as the Rockies’ manager. “I know Buddy, and he wouldn’t take the Colorado job if he didn’t think that franchise could win,” Roland said. “I’ve talked to him about this. He’s very excited.” So are the Rockies, who have a stellar lineup featuring Nolan Arenado, DJ LeMahieu and Carlos Gonzalez, and rising star Trevor Story. They also have an up-and-coming starting rotation, anchored by power right-hander Jon Gray. The bullpen remains a shambles, but general manager Jeff Bridich has vowed to fix it. ”We’re aware of where we’re at and where we need to get to,” Bridich said. “But Bud’s experience and his expertise absolutely adds into that, and lends to us to being better than we have been recently on the bump.” Black also received a hearty endorsement from owner Dick Monfort, who made a list of eight things he wanted for Colorado’s next manager. ”I went down my list and checked a lot of them off with Bud,” Monfort said. ”I’ve watched him manage at San Diego all those years. He seems like a tough guy. He understands the game and obviously has a lot of experience. I think he’s a good fit for us.”

Basic Black Things to know about new Rockies manager Bud Black:

Born June 30, 1957 in San Mateo, Calif.

His full name is Harry Ralston Black, but he goes by Bud, Buddy or Blackie.

Chicago Cubs manager Joe Maddon calls him “Pepe,” a name given to Black during his high school Spanish class.

Graduated from Mark Morris High School in Longview, Wash.

Played college baseball at Lower Columbia Community College (Longview, Wash.) and San Diego State University.

Has been married to wife Nan (Nanette) for 31 years. They met at San Diego State when she was checking meal-ticket punch cards at the college dining hall.

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The Blacks have two daughters, Jamie and Jessie.

Black’s Colorado connections run deep. His wife’s three sisters and her mother all live in Colorado.

Was drafted in the 17th round in 1979 by the Seattle Mariners.

On September 17, 1984, Reggie Jackson hit his 500th career homer off Black.

Pitched 15 seasons in the majors, going 121-116 with a 3.84 ERA, in 398 games (296 starts).

Served as pitching coach for the Angels under manager Mike Scioscia (2000-2006) and was part of the 2002 World Series championship team.

The Angels’ championship staff included current Cubs manager Joe Maddon and former Brewers manager Ron Roenicke.

Managed the Padres from 2007 to 2015, with a 649-713 record (.477). Black’s Padres never made the playoffs.

Was named 2010 National League manager of the year after guiding the Padres to a 90-72 record and a second-place finish in the NL West. The Padres ranked second in the NL in ERA (3.39), strikeouts (1,295) and opponent batting average (.240) that season.

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Saunders: Bud Black certain he can work, thrive with Rockies’ front office Black embraces analytics era of baseball that Rockies are invested in By PATRICK SAUNDERS | psaunders@denverpost.com - November 12, 2016 at 12:00 pm Since the Rockies hired Bud Black as their new manager last Monday, one of the things I’ve been asked most often by fans, friends and family is this: “Will Black be able to get along with the front office?” I understand the genesis of the question. After the terrible, 98-loss, dysfunction-filled 2012 season, Jim Tracy walked away from the final year of his contract, turning his back on $1.4 million. This past season, Walt Weiss stepped down immediately after his three-year contract expired. Though owner Dick Monfort hoped that Weiss and general manager Jeff Bridich might reach some common ground, Weiss never thought that was possible. In fact, given the growing distance and hostility between Bridich and Weiss, they were never going to be able to work together. Given that history, I pulled Black aside after his introductory news conference. I asked: “The last two managers left with hard feelings between them and the front office. I assume you would not have taken this job if you were not in concert with Jeff Bridich, correct?” Black answered: “I had not met Jeff before. I hadn’t met with (assistant GM of player personnel) Jon Weil, (owner) Dick Monfort or (assistant GM of baseball operations) Zack Rosenthal. But it was a great dialogue, it really was. “They were extremely open and extremely honest. We talked all through the day and all through dinner. When I left, I had a really good feeling about these guys.” Black, a man with 8½ years of managerial experience on his résumé, told me he’s not worried about too much interference from the front office. It’s clear to me that he wouldn’t have taken the job if he felt that was the case. “I embrace baseball conversation, that’s important to me,” Black said. “Because, whether it’s Jeff or whether it’s Dick, these guys are invested just as much as I am in this team. The more they know what I’m thinking, the better. I’m good with them asking questions about our team. I think that’s healthy.” It’s a misnomer that Weiss didn’t embrace the new era of analytics that the Rockies are now fully invested in. In fact, Weiss has told me he welcomed the reams of statistics at his disposal. The problem was that he and Bridich were not on the same page. Black, 59, played baseball in a simpler time, but said he gladly embraces the analytics era. “In this day and age — when there is a lot of information and a lot of data and a lot of stuff going around in our game — we have to communicate and talk,” Black said. “I got the sense that that is what these guys want, and that’s what I want too.” Those who know Black well have told me he is strong-willed and independent-minded, but also willing to listen and be flexible about others’ ideas. Then there is this: Black is Bridich’s guy, whereas Weiss was picked by former GM Dan O’Dowd with a lot of input from Monfort. I think the last year has proven that Monfort has given Bridich more power and control. Now it’s up to the Bridich-Black tandem to produce a winner.

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MLB rumors: Rockies, Mark Melancon have 'mutual interest' in deal Could the Rockies and Melancon work out a free-agent contract? By Bryan Kilpatrick - Nov 11, 2016, 3:29pm MST / Purple Row The Colorado Rockies and free-agent reliever Mark Melancon have "mutual interest" in a deal, according to FanRag Sports' John Perrotto, who covered the general manager meetings on-site this week. Melancon, a native of Colorado, would be one of the biggest free-agent signings in the short history of the Rockies franchise if the two sides are able to work out a deal. The 31-year-old right-hander would theoretically be a positive addition to Colorado's bullpen; in parts of eight big league seasons, Melancon owns a 2.60 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9. The market for free-agent relievers might go off the rails a bit this offseason, but Melancon likely presents an affordable, yet still high-end, option. An evaluator who talked to Perrotto concurred:

"Chapman and Jansen get all the attention because they throw hard but I love Melancon," a scout from an NL team. "He has that cutter that just disappears when it gets to home plate and he never seems to ever blow a save."

Rockies owner Dick Monfort recently alluded to a payroll increase, and with Jeff Bridich's insistence on upgrading the Rockies' NL-worst bullpen, the club appears to have a shot at making something work with Melancon. One potential road block is the division-rival San Francisco Giants; Melancon is reportedly in the Bay Area meeting with their front office, and it might be difficult for the Rockies to match or exceed a potential offer given the large disparity in payroll between the two clubs.

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Colorado Rockies shortstop Trevor Story filled some big shoes Story did his best to make Rockies fans forget about Tulo. By Ryan Schoppe - Nov 12, 2016, 10:56am MST / Purple Row After the Rockies traded shortstop Troy Tulowitzki to the Blue Jays, it appeared that the Rockies had given up one of their few advantages: great offensive production from a position known for weak-hitting, all-glove players (though that’s changing). While that held true through the remainder of the 2015 season, things quickly turned around in 2016. Due to injuries and a certain player who will remain nameless being suspended, Trevor Story had the opportunity to be the Rockies’ Opening Day shortstop. Story made his case by hitting six home runs and 11 extra-base hits in 20 spring training games, good for a 1.199 OPS, and was awarded the job. After his second minor-league season, Story was was consensus top-100 prospect and also seen as some as the Rockies top prospect. However, a rough 2013 season in Modesto took the shine off of his prospect status that he would never fully recover. There was a noticeable trend that Story would start a new level extremely slow before making key adjustments and earning another promotion. Coming off his hot spring, common sense said that Story would slow down once the games started counting and he was facing big-league pitching exclusively; however, someone forgot to inform Story of that. Instead, Story decided to show the world how easy it was to hit home runs against puny big-league pitching. Story hit two home runs on opening day, six home runs in the first four games, and crushed his seventh home run in just the sixth game of the season, all of which either tied or set records for most home runs to start a career. Eventually, Story’s swing-and-miss tendencies begin to catch up with him and as his strikeout rate climbed above 35 percent. The question became whether or not Story was going to be able to make the adjustment. Story, however, proved that his ability to adjust in the minor leagues after struggles would carry over and his K rate started to decrease while his offensive production begin to climb again. After the All-Star break, Story appeared to have caught a second wind, as he slashed .340/.417/.698 and hit six more home runs to get to a stunning total of 27 home runs in July. Unfortunately that would be his season ending total, as he tore the UCL in his thumb sliding into second base and was put on the DL until the end of the season. Before the season, I predicted that Story would provide more WAR to the Rockies than his predecessor would for the Blue Jays. Story put up 2.8 fWAR, 3.1 rWAR and 3.3 WARP, while Tulowitzki accumulated 2.8 fWAR, 3.3 rWAR and 2.0 WARP. While the end result makes it appear that I was marginally correct in my prediction, how it happened was where I was completely wrong. I predicted that Story would be unable to match Tulo’s pace, but that he would eventually beat him by being able to stay healthier and play more games. Ultimately, Story either paced or beat Tulo while gathering about 120 fewer plate appearances. 2017 Outlook Having already proven to be able to make adjustments as the big-league level and steadily decreased his K rate through his abbreviated season, Story is poised to take the next step to stardom. Assuming that Story is able to stay healthy and play a full sophomore season, 35-40 home runs is not an unlikely outcome. However, if he simply repeated his home run total from this year while continuing to improve his approach at the plate and in the field, Story could become one of the top five shortstops in the game.

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Rookie Tyler Anderson was a fabulous surprise Ranking the Rockies, No. 5: Tyler Anderson turned in an outstanding rookie season. By Ted Chalfen - Nov 13, 2016, 12:42pm MST / Purple Row Entering 2016, the rookie pitcher whose debut Rockies fans were anticipating was named Jeff Hoffman. After the season, the one they were talking about was Tyler Anderson. The lefty made his debut on June 12 and immediately became one of the two best starting pitchers on the team along with Jon Gray. Anderson started 19 games, the fifth most on the team, and proved to be the Rockies' most consistent starter over the last three-plus months of the season. His misleading 5-6 record suffered from poor run support and a bad bullpen, but virtually every other metric shows just how good his rookie campaign was. Anderson struck out 99 batters in 114 1/3 innings while walking just 28. His 3.54 K/BB ratio was the best on the staff, as was his 2.2 walks per nine innings. His team-best 3.54 ERA was bolstered by an impressive 3.00 mark at Coors Field, where he made 12 of his 19 starts. The resulting ERA+ of 138 was also tops on the team. Baseball Reference's WAR really liked Tyler Anderson's campaign, as he was the most valuable pitcher on the staff according to that statistic, with his 3.5 rWAR matching Tyler Chatwood, who made eight more starts than Anderson did. Tylers Anderson and Chatwood (please make this a thing) combined for 7.0 rWAR this season. It's tough to single out a particular shining moment from Anderson's campaign. Maybe it was the home run he hit in front of a sellout crowd on July 9th. Instead of the periodic brilliance of Jon Gray, Anderson's 2016 was characterized by consistently good performances that almost always gave his team a chance to win. He never pitched more than 7 1/3 innings in a game, but he managed to go at least 6 innings in 14 of his 19 starts. Twelve of them were quality starts and, while that's a flawed metric, it demonstrates just how consistent he was this season. For a former hot prospect who missed most of two seasons because of elbow trouble, Anderson's major league rookie season was as vindicating as it was long-awaited. Let's hope he sticks around a while. 2017 Outlook: Anderson will remain handsome and under team control for his sophomore season. With better run support, he could turn into one of the hottest young pitchers in baseball.

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5 Moves That Could Surprise MLB Fans This Offseason Jacob Carmendy, BASEBALLDOCS on November 12 Every offseason in baseball, we always experience some type of bold move by a team that many don't expect to happen. Whether it's a trade or a signing, we still see a stunning move or two. Take the Diamondbacks for example. No one saw the Shelby Miller trade and the Zack Grienke signing coming. In this post we will show five potential moves that teams could make that will surprise many fans or even shock some. 1. Rockies Sign Mark Melancon The Colorado Rockies are expected to rise payroll this offseason in an effort to put a winning product on the field next year. They will need to add to their pitching, especially the bullpen. I could envision a situation where they could be a dark horse in the Mark Melancon sweepstakes. It will cost a pretty penny, but don't count Colorado out. 2. Tigers Trade J.D. Martinez To The Giants San Francisco could use a power bat in the corner outfield, and Martinez would bring significant power to this Giants team. They will need to pay up potentially Christian Arroyo or Tyler Beede in a deal, which could hold up a Martinez trade, as J.D. only has a year left on his contract. 3.White Sox trade Jose Quintana To The Rangers Quintana is a huge trade piece for the White Sox, so they will surely ask for a lot in return. The Rangers however, would like to add another outstanding arm to their rotation and have good prospect depth from which to choose from. Beware Rangers fans, Chicago would probably ask for Joey Gallo or Jurickson Profar in talks. 4.Dodgers Sign Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman It seems unlikely they would land both, but the big spending Dodgers may pull this off if they truly feel they need both arms. Their bullpen has depth that could prevent this, however. 5.Pirates Trade Andrew McCutchen To the Astros The Astros want to add a big bat to their lineup for next season and the Pirates at the very least want to listen to offers for their star outfielder. The Astros would have to pay a huge price, to which Stros' GM Jeff Luhnow doesn't want to pay prospect wise, but they could surprise. 6.Edwin Encarnacion Signs With The Orioles Here's an extra one. Could this really happen? Encarnacion and Chris Davis could rotate between DH and 1st base, like many would expect if he signs with the Red Sox. This is a post of surprises, we shall see.

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Liner Notes The 2017 Free Agent 50 (Part 1) By Bryan Grosnick Below is Part 1 of our annual list of the top 50 free agents, covering the first 20 players and ranked from first to last in talent and value. If you’re wondering if this list is a carefully curated collection of projected WARP for 2017 and beyond, it’s not. If you’re wondering if I just sorted by recent performance, I didn’t. I simply used my own expert (add air quotes if you want) judgment, as much objective data as I can, and whichever context clues I could scrounge up in order to rank and predict--likely badly--a few landing spots. I also allowed our intern "Randy" to make his own predictions. Randy is incredibly bad at this, in no small part due to him literally being a random number generator. (Even still, he’s just awful.) 1. Yoenis Cespedes Position (Bats): OF (R) Age (as of 4/1/17): 31 Observations: It’s telling of this free agent class that Cespedes–coming off a world-class season for a pennant-winning club–rockets from no. 6 on last season's list to no. 1 this year. However, Cespedes has established a new normal of excellent offensive performance (.326 True Average in 2016), even though he dealt with minor injury issues throughout his go-round with the Amazins. Considering he can play a decent left field and pass for a center fielder in a pinch, he’s more mobile than the other high-end bats available this year, which is a nice complement to his righteous power numbers. Prediction: Cespedes leaves the Mets, because if the team wanted to make it work, they probably would’ve put it together before La Potencia opted out. As for a landing spot, I think it’s the time for the Astros to make their big move. Randy’s Prediction: Marlins 2. Edwin Encarnacion Position (Bats): 1B/DH (R) Age (as of 4/1/17): 34 Observations: Only Chris Davis (197) has more home runs than Encarncacion over the past five years, a testament to the big guy’s power and willingness to walk the parrot. Add that to his solid approach, and you’ve got a fearsome offensive force, but with a few negatives. A late bloomer, there’s no doubt he’d earn more if he weren’t entering his age-34 season, and he’s likely locked into a DH role unless your team really doesn’t care about defense. He’s also coming off his worst offensive season of the past five years, so there’s some chance he’s already headed downhill. Prediction: If he weren’t a right-handed hitter, I’d follow the conventional wisdom and predict the Red Sox. Since he is, I could certainly see the Blue Jays hanging onto one of their two offensive centerpieces, and Edwin’s the guy I bet on sticking around. Randy’s Prediction: Mets 3. Kenley Jansen Position (Bats): RHP Age (as of 4/1/17): 29 Observations: You only really need one pitch to be a shutdown reliever, and Jansen’s got it–his cutter is the bee's knees. The converted catcher used it to do what he always does: strike out 13-plus hitters per nine and close out games. He’s demonstrated his ability in the clutch again after strong showings in the postseason, including a masterful three-inning outing in Game 6 of the NLCS. Jansen is young enough to think he’s still in his prime, and consistent enough to break a record for largest contract ever given to a reliever.

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Prediction: I really think that a number of contending teams will be looking to shore up the ninth inning, but I’ll put my money on the defending World Champion Cubs–that’s still very bizarre to say–who may be looking for a Chapman replacement. Randy’s Prediction: Reds 4. Aroldis Chapman Position (Bats): LHP Age (as of 4/1/17): 29 Observations: Since 2012, Chapman hasn’t just been the hardest-throwing pitcher in baseball (history?), he’s also been a stone-cold elite reliever. His career DRA is 1.84, he hardly ever allows home runs, and his strikeout rate is somewhere so far north of the norm that it could have been part of the Sever-2 expedition. He might be the best reliever on the market, but he sits behind Jansen due to his history of domestic violence. Some team will pay him to bring his signature southpaw heat to the ninth inning. Prediction: All the buzz has Chapman returning to New York to rejoin the Yankees, and that move makes a lot of sense for team and player. I expect the bidding to get high and the Yankees to try to make it under the luxury tax, so it's certainly possible he’ll surface somewhere else. Randy’s Prediction: Cubs 5. Justin Turner Position (Bats): 3B (R) Age (as of 4/1/17): 32 Observations: From an afterthought in places like Baltimore and New York to a critical cog in Los Angeles, the flame-headed third baseman for the Dodgers has (somewhat) quietly emerged as one of the game’s most fearsome hitters. At this point in his career, he’s starting to tap into his power, flirting with 30 homers last year and–perhaps most importantly–staying upright for a full year. Injuries may be a lingering concern, but there are few other infield bats with Turner’s profile available in this thin market. After years of hard work and precious little hype, it’s time for him to get paid like a star. Prediction: Turner’s got too good of a thing going in Los Angeles to make a prediction on anything other than the Dodgers. I think they’ll be motivated to keep him around during a winter when plenty of teams will be trying (and failing) to land a big bat. Randy’s Prediction: Red Sox 6. Dexter Fowler Position (Bats): OF (S) Age (as of 4/1/17): 31 Observations: Before these past two seasons, it was easy to say that Fowler was an on-base magnet but a liability on defense. Today ... well, the same thing’s probably true–at least according to an FRAA metric that put him a win to the negative on defense last year–but his offense has perked up to game-changing levels. Though his glove may continue to be a question mark, if not a liability, his switch-hitting skills make him a prototypical modern leadoff man and well worth his qualifying offer status. Prediction: It’s tough to imagine a world where the Cubs change things up dramatically from their World Series win, but Fowler should be a man in demand. I believe the market is ripe enough that he’ll get a huge offer from a team like the

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Cardinals or White Sox or Giants, and yet I’m going off the board and picking the Cubs’ World Series opponents, the Indians. Randy’s Prediction: Tigers 7. Ian Desmond Position (Bats): CF/SS (R) Age (as of 4/1/17): 31 Observations: For the second year in a row, Desmond falls just behind Fowler in these rankings. For the first year in a row, Desmond displayed an ability to play an above-average outfield after moving off his native middle-infield position. While normally that kind of shift depresses a player’s value, Desmond was solid in an outfield corner, passable in center, and able to reverse his downhill trend on offense. Now, it appears he’s ready to enter a second act as a super-utility power bat whose approach and defense make for boom-or-bust outcomes with every new day. Prediction: In a perfect world, Desmond will find a home with a team that values his athleticism and newfound versatility rather than simply shoehorning him into an outfield corner. If they lose two of the Encarnacion-Bautista-Saunders trio, I could certainly see the Blue Jays as an intriguing fit, with Desmond manning right field and perhaps picking up Troy Tulowitzki’s slack in case of the inevitable injury. Randy’s Prediction: Angels (editor's note: lol, nope) 8. Rich Hill Position (Bats): LHP Age (as of 4/1/17): 37 Observations: Undoubtedly our biggest climber in the rankings between this year and last, Hill only cemented his place as one of the best stories in baseball and one of the league’s best starting pitchers, when healthy. The master of the curveball is unreliable due to the injury issues that have plagued his whole career, but he’s also been one of the three best pitchers in baseball on a rate basis (2.00 ERA, 2.37 FIP) over the past two seasons. Don’t expect a lot of innings from Hill, but expect shoving when he’s on the bump. Prediction: The most talented free agent pitcher on the market could go almost anywhere there’s money to be spent. He’s not likely to take another make-good contract, and plenty of teams will be willing to offer rich (ha ha) two- or three-year deals. If there’s a bidding war, I think the Red Sox could win it. Randy’s Prediction: Reds 9. Wilson Ramos Position (Bats): C (R) Age (as of 4/1/17): 29 Observations: Finally delivering on the offensive potential from earlier in his career, Ramos raised his True Average by more than 70 points in his breakout season. He’s established himself as an above-average contributor at the dish while playing solid defense behind it. The big question, of course, will be his recovery from offseason knee surgery–it’s his ability to stay healthy that has made him so valuable. But the combination of now-stellar offense and solid defense is too much to ignore in a world where many catchers are, uh, not great. Prediction: Ramos returns to the Nationals on a make-good contract, as both parties could still greatly benefit from the other.

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Randy’s Prediction: Diamondbacks 10. Neil Walker Position (Bats): 2B (S) Age (as of 4/1/17): 31 Observations: There aren’t many players whose trend line looks like a bond investor’s bank account, but there is Walker–every season, his WARP trend line ticks up just a touch. A model of consistency, the trade that brought Walker to New York looks like an absolute heist in hindsight as he posted the best season of his career filling in for the departed Daniel Murphy. He’s got a back issue, his 30s coming, and a qualifying offer in hand, so there’s more than just a chance that he’ll see his production slip for the first time in 2017 on a bigger deal. Nevertheless, he’s a solid investment. Prediction: It makes too much sense for Walker to pick up the Mets’ qualifying offer, bank a cool $17.2 million, and take another crack at this free agency thing next year. Randy’s Prediction: Cubs 11. Josh Reddick Position (Bats): OF (L) Age (as of 4/1/17): 30 Observations: Reddick was cruising through a career year with Oakland before his trade to the contending Dodgers, but his performance took a nosedive once he saddled up with L.A. That’s a shame for his free agent prospects–before that run in Tinseltown, Reddick could rightly be considered as consistent as they come, balancing slightly above-average offense (.276 True Average, but well above that over the last three years) with well-regarded defense. Still, teams looking for workaday performance and a void in a corner outfield spot could do a lot worse than Reddick, poor summer aside. Prediction: A return to the Bay Area seems in order for Reddick, who would make for a snug fit alongside Hunter Pence and Denard Span in the Giants’ outfield. Something seems very right about those three patrolling the grass in San Francisco. Randy’s Prediction: Yankees 12. Jose Bautista Position (Bats): OF/DH (R) Age (as of 4/1/17): 36 Observations: Was 2016 the new normal for Joey Bats or a late-career hiccup? The poster child for “you can’t predict ball”-style late-developing superstardom finally showed his age this year, as his slugging percentage crashed from .536 in ’15 to .452 in ’16. Was it due to advancing age or injury or both? Probably both. But Bautista still possesses game-changing power and an approach that could give him a rebound and more graceful denouement. There’s no real hope for Bautista to return to his prime form, but he’ll also likely demand a shorter-term commitment than many other free agents. Prediction: It’s hilarious, but I think the Rangers are perhaps the team that’s the best fit for Bautista. Of course, they’re probably the one team that Bautista might say “nah, man” to after the bat flip and the punch and all that. His defensive issues probably mean an American League club, so I’ll go with the Red Sox. Randy’s Prediction: Astros

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13. Jason Castro Position (Bats): C (L) Age (as of 4/1/17): 29 Observations: No player has a longer Astros tenure, and perhaps no player on the team is more emblematic of the franchise’s shift under Jeff Luhnow. In 2013, Castro was undoubtedly the team’s best player–posting a .276/.350/.485 slash behind the dish–but our current numbers saw him as costing his team a win or so with his pitch framing. Over the last few years, Castro has completely changed his skill set. Thanks to an improved focus on that part of the game, he’s developed into one of baseball’s better framers (17 framing runs added in 2016), even as he’s settled in as a guy who kind of hits like a good defensive catcher (.239 True Average). Though this is actually a decent market for catchers despite a weak free agent class, a player with Castro’s skill set could find many suitors as teams continue to start players like Rene Rivera and Luke Maile. Prediction: There are more than a few teams with interest in upgrading at catcher, and two of those teams are in the American League Central. While the White Sox would also benefit from Castro’s framing, the Twins have expressed interest, and have a huge hole to fill–I think they could be a match. Randy’s Prediction: Pirates 14. Carlos Gomez Position (Bats): OF (R) Age (as of 4/1/17): 31 Observations: If one only knew which version of Go-Go will show up, he could be either 10 slots higher or 40 slots lower. As was well documented, the former All-Star was so bad with the Astros that they gave him away for free to their division rivals. Once in Arlington, he started mashing again, making a (somewhat sketchy) case for single-handedly derailing the Astros’ playoff hopes. Gomez definitely is not the 27-homers-and-40-steals-with-world-class-defense player he was in 2013, but if he puts the ball in the air and leans into his new life as a power-hitting, defensively-solid corner outfielder, he’ll be well worth whatever modest contract the market brings him. Prediction: The vogue prediction is that Gomez is a seamless fit with the Cardinals. I’m not creative enough to find a way around their devil magic, so sure, St. Louis it is! Randy’s Prediction: Marlins 15. Jeremy Hellickson Position (Bats): RHP Age (as of 4/1/17): 29 Observations: Slightly worse than average, but more reliable than most–that’s Hellickson. DRA and cFIP indicate that, both over his career and in his effective 2016 season, Hellickson doesn’t quite fall onto the plus side of average. Yet, he’s more reliable than Nova and younger than Bartolo Colon, so that makes him the second-best starting pitcher in this free agent class. He’ll likely never give up less than a homer per nine innings, but putting him in a pitchers' park with a decent framer behind the plate may make the former Rookie of the Year a perfectly acceptable no. 3 starter. Being some team’s excellent no. 5 starter or awful no. 1 starter are two other outcomes in play. Prediction: Someone is going to pay this man to shore up a rotation. Since I don't think he takes the qualifying offer, I think the Phillies are out. He’d be best suited for a park that limits homers and won’t focus too much on his FIP. Oh no, it’s going to be the Royals, isn’t it

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Randy’s Prediction: Royals 16. Mark Trumbo Position (Bats): OF/1B (R) Age (as of 4/1/17): 31 Observations: Dingers. So many dingers. But despite leading baseball in home runs–and wicked heavy metal guitar licks–the powerful righty isn’t a transcendent offensive player. Right-handed power is great, and talking to front office types might make you think finding it is like trapping Sasquatch, but Trumbo’s a miserable outfielder who needs to mash in order to carry value. In addition, his career OBP (.313) is dire enough to require 40 bombs or so just for him to be a solvent hitter. He’s consistently a slightly-above-average hitter–there’s no denying his career True Average of .274–but every other aspect of his game drags down his value. Buyers should be aware that last offseason he was valued roughly equal to Steve Clevenger, and not all that much has changed in his profile since. Prediction: There’s a match here that allows Trumbo to augment his strengths as a hitter while playing the position that best fits his skill set and value: first base. If he signs with the Rockies, 50 homers are in play, and both teams might be happy with the fit. Randy’s Prediction: Angels 17. Mark Melancon Position (Bats): RHP Age (as of 4/1/17): 32 Observations: It’s not safe to conflate Melancon with the other premium relievers on the market in Jansen and Chapman. Think of them as one tier, and Melancon in the tier below. While those other guys post unbelievable strikeout numbers and provide the dominance that only a few pitchers in history have, Melancon is just ... very good. Instead of striking out the planet, Melancon gets a perfectly acceptable eight or so per nine, but augments it with a cutter and curve that get bashed into the dirt more often than not. Melancon has kept his ERA below 2.00 in three of the last four seasons, but he does it in a way that could be viewed as likely to shift if his velocity fails him. Melancon is very good and incredibly consistent–he may not be as flashy (or as expensive) as the other relievers on the market, but he’s also another closer who could be well worth a three- or four-year deal. Prediction: Someone has to lose out on the Jansen and Chapman sweepstakes, and Melancon will be a very fine consolation prize. If I believe that those other two go elsewhere, then Melancon is the new closer that the Giants so desperately need. Randy’s Prediction: Dodgers 18. Ivan Nova Position (Bats): RHP Age (as of 4/1/17): 30 Observations: After coming over from the Yankees midseason, Nova went supernova in 11 starts for the Pirates. Only one really major thing changed in Pittsburgh: he walked just three hitters. Nova worked in the zone more than half the time after his transition to the NL, and missed big less often, limiting his home runs as well. The trick will be holding onto his gains–if he does, he’s a viable no. 3 starter despite not working with outlandish stuff. If he goes back to nibbling at the corners of the plate, he could wind up costing a team quite a bit of money over the long term.

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Prediction: The Marlins will probably have to go out and sign someone to fill the hole in their rotation left by the death of Jose Fernandez. Nova feels like the guy. Randy’s Prediction: Mariners 19. Michael Saunders Position (Bats): OF (L) Age (as of 4/1/17): 30 Observations: We may all need to agree to start treating Saunders like a pitcher. Ever on the cusp of a breakout, Captain Canada actually delivered on one this year, earning an All-Star spot and posting a .273 True Average that was mostly in line with his career numbers. He’s a solid hitter, if a flawed defender, and he had historic struggles in the clutch last year, but he’s likely to hit perfectly well for a left fielder. If he can stay healthy. After missing almost all of 2015 with an injury and a laundry list of ailments that predated that, Saunders stayed mostly upright at the perfect time: right before free agency. If he can find a team with a tolerance for risk, he could be a solid second or third outfielder until he breaks again. Prediction: I could see the Phillies ponying up for Saunders as an intriguing pump-and-dump candidate for a trade on a multi-year deal. If he stays healthy and productive to start 2017, they deal him for young talent. If not, they wait and try again in 2018. Randy’s Prediction: Royals 20. Matt Wieters Position (Bats): C (S) Age (as of 4/1/17): 30 Observations: Are we allowed to talk about Wieters’ famous PECOTA projection? Once projected to be the catching equivalent of Mike Trout, the Orioles’ (former?) backstop hasn’t even cracked 1.0 WARP in any of the last three seasons due to either health or performance. Look, there are a half-dozen reasons to think that he could be could improve­­–from continued recovery from Tommy John surgery causing an offensive bounceback to his previous years of solid framing numbers to just a change of scenery–but maybe it is time for us to recognize that he’s just a kinda average catcher with a great pedigree and injury risks Prediction: He’ll sign with the White Sox and be a massive disappointment to fans expecting an All-Star level of performance. He’ll be OK. Randy’s Prediction: Angels

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Liner Notes The 2017 Free Agent 50 (Part 2) By Bryan Grosnick

Good luck making it all the way to the end of this! This free agent class, much like the one Verve Pipe concert I went to on my birthday 18 years ago, is not great. Nevertheless, I’m here to try to make it entertaining. Part 1 broke down the top-20 free agents, so it's time for the not-so-cream of the crop, players 21-50 on the free agent market.

Two notes that bear mentioning: First, I’m not including free agents from foreign leagues like Lourdes Gurriel and Eric Thames. They’re out there, plus a few guys from the Korean Baseball Organization, but I’m not comfortable trying to assign teams or make observations with limited info. Second, our intern "Randy" has made his own predictions, and it's important to keep in mind that he's a literal random number generator. Nice kid and all, but it's the truth.

21. Carlos Beltran

Position (Bats): DH/OF (S)

Age (as of 4/1/17): 39

Observations: One of the game’s greatest switch-hitters keeps chugging along, just barely padding his Hall of Fame resume with year after year of solid offensive performance. His 2016 was a blessing for the Yankees as he thrived enough to return a substantial prospect at the deadline, but his power waned in the Arlington summer. This is probably his last ride, but he’s still savvy and strong enough to provide value, so long as you keep him out of the outfield.

Prediction: It’s almost got to be an American League team at this point, so let’s run down the teams in need of a DH. (/counts for a moment) Huh, it’s almost all of them, save maybe Detroit or Cleveland. The sentimentalist inside of me wants to see him land with the Royals, and they’ve got a need.

Randy’s Prediction: Astros

22. Jason Hammel

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/17): 34

Observations: The Cubs did something kind of weird and out of the norm for modern baseball franchises: they let Hammel walk thanks to a gentleman’s agreement instead of keeping him around at the reasonable price of $12 million. A perfectly serviceable back-of-the-rotation starter, he’d likely benefit from a park that limits dingers, but wouldn’t we all? Even at 34, I could still see him getting a modest three-year deal and gently anchoring the back of a team’s rotation.

Prediction: Everyone has a need for reliable starting pitching, so it comes down to who can stomach the cost. With so very many question marks, and perhaps just enough money to spend, I could see him landing with the Angels and quietly contributing to a mediocre team.

Randy’s Prediction: Tigers

23. Luis Valbuena

Position (Bats): 3B/1B (L)

Age (as of 4/1/17): 31

Observations: Am I nervous that coming off hamstring surgery could hamper his power and/or versatility? You bet. But Valbuena has proven his merits as a play anywhere, hit a few homers, reach base on the regular type of player. You’re going to get tired of hearing this, but in this market, there’s some serious value to being able to acquire a decent left-

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handed bat and then figure out where he fits later. A two-win player you can plug in almost anywhere is like the four-in-a-row block in Tetris, the perfect final piece.

Prediction: One of two options are in play: either he’s picked up by a team that respects his versatility and uses him in a manner of different roles (perhaps the Dodgers) or a team that simply needs an upgrade at third base (such as the Braves). Let’s go with the Braves.

Randy’s Prediction: Diamondbacks

24. Bartolo Colon

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/17): Astonishing

Observations: Bart moves so high up this list for two reasons. The first is despite his advanced age--he’s become incredibly reliable as he’s gotten older, throwing 190+ innings over each of the past four seasons. No, he’s not good (DRA of 5.15 in 2016), but he isn’t likely to immediately fall apart one more season removed from his prime. That’s the benefit of living and dying by your command and wits. The second reason is actually because of his age--no team will feel obligated to throw a three-year deal on the guy, and he may even just go year-to-year at this point. Any time you can avoid a long-term deal to a pitcher, you probably want to.

Prediction: Bart returns to the Mets on another one-year deal, and we all continue to spout fun facts about his age while he mentors pitchers born well after his debut. (Just kidding! Bartolo signed a one-year deal with the Braves on Friday.)

Randy’s Prediction: Twins

25. Steve Pearce

Position (Bats): 1B/OF (R)

Age (as of 4/1/17): 33

Observations: Boomerang Steve was a phenomenal part-time player with the Rays this year, pounding out hits to the tune of a .309/.388/.520 slash line before returning once again to the Orioles’ 25-man roster. Pearce is a bit volatile, as he seems injury prone and really should only be leveraged against left-handed pitching. Supposedly, he’s versatile, though it remains to be seen if that actually means he can handle positions like second and third base on the regular. Likely, he’s guy you shuffle through the corners or DH spot whenever you need to beat up on a southpaw.

Prediction: How has he not already played for the Athletics?

Randy’s Prediction: Nationals

26. Angel Pagan

Position (Bats): OF (S)

Age (as of 4/1/17): 35

Observations: How much volatility can you stomach? In 2016, he took on a mostly full-time role in left field, and racked up value by doing every little thing just a bit better than average. He was a plus baserunner yet again–not bad for an age-34 season–posted solid advanced defensive numbers once ensconced in left, and hit almost exactly in line with his career .273 True Average. The problem is that Pagan is a bit of a constant injury risk, and he is entering the back half of his 30s while being just one season removed from a below-replacement (-0.7 WARP) full season. I project something more like ’16 than ’15, but an ill-timed injury or long cold streak transforms him from the solidly above-average outfielder he was last season into Coco Crisp.

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Prediction: His best role is as the third outfielder on a team with some depth, so I could certainly see a team like the Twins bringing him on.

Randy’s Prediction: White Sox

27. Mike Napoli

Position (Bats): 1B/DH (R)

Age (as of 4/1/17): 35

Observations: How do you rank a guy with 34 bombs just 27th in this year’s weak free agent class? Simple: Napoli’s a fine power hitter and walker, but the rest of his skills are abominable. Though not a catcher anymore, he still runs like one (-3.4 BRR). At first base, he’s passable, but he’s aging out of that position as well. And in 2016, he hit .239 despite a fine .296 BABIP. Put him on a team with a big hole at DH, and he can perhaps end his career with grace and another 50-75 dingers. Just don’t forget to pinch-run for him or use a defensive replacement.

Prediction: Is it weird to imagine him on the Yankees as a caddy for Brian McCann or Greg Bird? You bet, but it kinda fits too.

Randy’s Prediction: Dodgers

28. Brad Ziegler

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/17): 37

Observations: One of the lowest-ranked “proven” closers on the market–don’t worry, we’ll get to Uehara later–Ziegler used to be baseball’s most fun groundball reliever until the Zach Britton Experience began. Remarkably consistent over his career, Ziegler amped up his strikeout rate after his move to Boston to pair with his mid-60s groundball rate. He’s a guy who almost always outperforms his FIP and DRA, which is great since those numbers (2.99 DRA and 3.11 FIP in 2016) are already good to begin with.

Prediction: The Red Sox would really benefit from bringing him back to shore up their bullpen.

Randy’s Prediction: Braves

29. Chase Utley

Position (Bats): 2B (L)

Age (as of 4/1/17): 38

Observations: Would you like another data point in favor of Chase Utley’s Hall of Fame candidacy? His decline, which looked stark in 2015, looked more gentle and in line with his previous performance this past year. The Dodgers stuck with him as the (mostly) everyday second baseman and it paid off: he put up a .273 True Average and played great old-dude defense (or great defense for an old dude?) at second. He’s on his way out of the league, but if he continues to decline gracefully, some team will get an inexpensive keystone next year.

Prediction: Move him cross-town to the Angels, and that is probably a full two-win upgrade over Johnny Giavotella and Cliff Pennington, even if he continues to decline.

Randy’s Prediction: Rangers

30. Rajai Davis

Position (Bats): OF (R)

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Age (as of 4/1/17): 36

Observations: Coming off his worst offensive season in several years, why on earth would I post the still-fleet Davis so high on my list? Because he’s a valuable role player in the right situation, and there is always a place for speed on a contending team. After leading the AL in stolen bases last year, Davis needs to keep driving toward a way to reach first base a bit more often–a .299 BABIP and .306 OBP just isn’t good enough to make him a leadoff hitter. Still, he’s one of the game’s most valuable baserunners, and can handle his business in center field.

Prediction: I can envision a scenario in which he’s the third or fourth outfielder and veteran presence on the free-running Brewers.

Randy’s Prediction: Dodgers

31. Brett Anderson

Position (Bats): LHP

Age (as of 4/1/17): 29

Observations: If he’s healthy, he’s pretty good. If he’s healthy, he’s pretty good. If he’s healthy, he’s pretty good. If he’s healthy, he’s pretty good. If he’s healthy, he’s pretty good. If he’s healthy, he’s pretty good. If he’s healthy, he’s pretty good. If he’s healthy, he’s pretty good. If he’s healthy, he’s pretty good.

Prediction: He’s not healthy. Dodgers.

Randy’s Prediction: Reds

32. Charlie Morton

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/17): 33

Observations: Oh, what might have been. Before losing his left leg in ‘Nam–wait, he just tore his hamstring in Milwaukee, but that’s close enough–Morton was off to a hot, hot start in his first four games with the Phillies. He was keeping his excellent groundball rate (58 percent for his career), but had massively increased his strikeout rate to nearly 10 punchouts per nine in that small sample. Somehow, he had raised his velocity on all of his pitches, including a 2.5 mph bump on his bread-and-butter sinker. If he maintains that velocity after his lost 2016, he could actually be a really nice mid-rotation starter for someone.

Prediction: It might behoove both player and team for Morton to stick with the Phillies. Injury aside, something certainly went right there, if only for a little while.

Randy’s Prediction: Cubs

33. Edinson Volquez

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/17): 33

Observations: I think we used to live in a world where we considered Volquez unreliable, and that’s at least partially due to the fact that I have no idea where the ball is going once it leaves his hand. It turns out that he’s been pretty steady over the past few years, with below-average performance mellowed out by reliably taking his turn through the rotation. Do I think he’s going to put up numbers in line with his career 4.44 ERA and 4.45 DRA over the next year or two? Yes. Have I resigned myself to the fact that this kind of stability has real value to a major-league team, no matter how ugly it can get? You betcha.

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Prediction: I mean, I’ll laugh if it is the Twins (low strikeouts!), but I think the new Derek Falvey regime knows better. He could be a rotation stabilizer for the Angels.

Randy’s Prediction: Orioles

34. Jon Jay

Position (Bats): OF (L)

Age (as of 4/1/17): 32

Observations: Still underrated, Jay is never the guy you dream about watching in center field, but (almost) always an average performer. He hits for average, but precious little power. His defense is competent, but not exceptional, and he has maintained an ability to pick up a few extra runs on the basepaths. The term “ham-and-egger” probably applies.

Prediction: He seems like a Rangers sort of guy. I don’t know what that really means, but I do know that they probably won’t have much of an issue pushing him to a reserve role if they make another move.

Randy’s Prediction: Astros

35. Daniel Hudson

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/17): 30

Observations: We’re probably just now coming to the point where we can consider Hudson not just an injury case, but actually a pretty decent relief pitcher with potential to grow. Make no mistake, Arizona’s a tough place to pitch, not only because of the ballpark but also because of the team’s unwillingness to hire solid framing catchers. Nevertheless, Hudson has acquitted himself well over the past couple of seasons, striking out about a batter per inning and combining skill and innings to be one of the most productive members of the Arizona bullpen. There’s a chance he could still grow in his late-inning relief role, and a change of scenery might help with that growth process.

Prediction: Literally every team needs another good right-handed reliever, except perhaps for the team below that Randy chose. (Stupid Randy!) Dartboard pick here is the Blue Jays.

Randy’s Prediction: Indians

36. Brett Cecil

Position (Bats): LHP

Age (as of 4/1/17): 30

Observations: Often overlooked despite being one of the best left-handed relievers in baseball from 2013-2015, Cecil was injured last season and saw his production dip as a result. Sure, his home run rate was brutal (1.5 per nine innings), but he also appeared to see use in shorter bursts than he had in previous seasons, picking up less than 37 innings despite seeing action in 54 games. When you’re striking out 11 batters per nine, you’ll certainly find a cushy landing spot somewhere, but we may be at a point where Cecil is simply a pretty good specialist.

Prediction: One of the few areas where the defending champions could use a real upgrade might be on the left-handed side of their bullpen. I could certainly see him helping the Cubs.

Randy’s Prediction: Giants

37. Doug Fister

Position (Bats): RHP

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Age (as of 4/1/17): 33

Observations: Just show up. That’s literally all it takes. Last year, Fister threw 180+ innings for the Astros, and they were almost perfectly replacement level. If it were 2009, we’d all be thinking of course he did, but in 2016, a couple years removed from All-Star-caliber production, it’s an unmitigated disappointment. And yet, pitching staffs are thirsty for guys who show up. When you’re relying on that fire-balling 23-year-old righty or that slider-heavy lefty, you better also have a Fister in your back pocket to soak up the innings, as mundane as they might be.

Prediction: I’m going to cheat a little, as I’m writing this after Colon left New York for the rival Braves. I could see him going to the Mets as a fallback option behind the team’s parade of talented-but-injured starters. They probably need one.

Randy’s Prediction: Orioles

38. Matt Joyce

Position (Bats): OF (L)

Age (as of 4/1/17):

Observations: A prototypical platoon outfielder, the thought was that his iffy defense might be exposed in his first taste of the National League. It turns out that, well, who cares? Joyce appeared in 140 games but only logged about 400 innings in the field despite. In that span, which included 293 plate appearances, he posted a .403 OBP and delivered 18 hits as a mid-game substitute. In fact, no player had more plate appearances as a sub than Joyce. He’s unlikely to replicate that run from a pure offensive standpoint again, but he stands at the ready as a prototypical offense-only platoon bat off the bench.

Prediction: You have to either put him on a team that’s willing to leverage him in the proper situation, or is very desperate for legitimate offense. I pick the Braves, and I bet you can guess which of those two categories I put Atlanta in.

Randy’s Prediction: Dodgers

39. Brandon Moss

Position (Bats): 1B/OF (L)

Age (as of 4/1/17): 33

Observations: Did you enjoy my brief write-up on Matt Joyce above? Lovely! Add a bit more power to the profile, but considerably less OBP, and a history of a bit more regular playing time.

Prediction: Since he’s not the complete cipher in the field that some players with his profile are, I’m guessing he stays in the National League for a bit longer and ends up with the Rockies. (They could sign both him and Mark Trumbo, right?)

Randy’s Prediction: Marlins

40. Sergio Romo

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/17): 34

Observations: Part of me really hates putting yet another reliever this high up the list–particularly one who appears to be a one- or two-out guy who throws right-handed–but here we are. Romo has the closer pedigree to demand more than your average reliever, but his recent performance has been more “good” (0.5 WARP in 40 games last year) than “great” (1.7 WARP in 65 games back in 2011). He’s probably got another good couple of years left in him, it’s just that those years include fewer innings and more homers than they used to–you’re paying a premium for the beard.

Prediction: Right-handed reliever roulette says ... the Dodgers! They love beardy former Giants closers, don’t they?

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Randy’s Prediction: Mets

41. Colby Rasmus

Position (Bats): OF (L)

Age (as of 4/1/17): 30

Observations: After plenty of seasons and more false starts than a Seinfeld footrace, I still believe. I mean, I don’t believe that Rasmus is a guy with All-Star potential like I once did, but I do think he can bounce back from a pretty ugly 2016 season to be a solid everyday regular. That’s all I got, it’s tough to find anything statistical in his profile that’s particularly predictive, so feel free to insert a shruggie man emoji here.

Prediction: If he comes cheaply, he could be another buy-low, sell-high, trade-at-the-deadline piece. Of the teams in position to do that, maybe the Diamondbacks could be a fit?

Randy’s Prediction: Indians

42. Koji Uehara

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/17): 41

Observations: With all the miles on his arm, you can’t blame Uehara for throwing just 47 innings last season. But Uehara also posted the second-best strikeout rate of his career (12.1 per nine innings) and posted a 2.80 DRA in his age-40 season. It appears that, despite his age, he’s still an incredibly effective relief pitcher. Provided he wants to keep shoving, he probably will have success, and some team will get to reap the returns on a short contract.

Prediction: Koji returns–once again–to the Red Sox on a one-year deal. Why not?

Randy’s Prediction: Red Sox (WAY TO GO, RANDY!)

43. Pedro Alvarez

Position (Bats): DH (L)

Age (as of 4/1/17): 30

Observations: It was supposed to be a breakout year for the defensively challenged Alvarez, as he was finally free from the terrors of having to play the field in the National League. Sure enough, he was spared his glove, aside from 53 ill-fated innings at third base alongside Manny Machado at short. The Orioles wisely used him primarily against right-handed pitchers, and any acquiring team might want to do the same–he was only .237/.286/.368 against lefties.

Prediction: There are a lot of DH-types available this offseason, which makes his market challenging to predict. The White Sox are really low on left-handed hitters, and their DH situation is murky, so perhaps they’re the best fit for him.

Randy’s Prediction: Twins

44. Sean Rodriguez

Position (Bats): UT (R)

Age (as of 4/1/17): 31

Observations: Ever ready to play any position and always spoiling for a fight, Rodriguez also happened to be a pretty good ballplayer last year. His slash line stats went up across the board to a very respectable .270/.349/.510, but you may

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want to chalk some of that up to a career-high batting average on balls in play (.344). It was wise of him to time his career-best season with his impending free agency, and he’ll parlay that into a contract as a super-sub for some squad.

Prediction: I could certainly see a reunion with Andrew Freidman and a role as a do-it-all everyman for the Dodgers. But given his versatility, there are plenty of places he could end up.

Randy’s Prediction: White Sox

45. Andrew Cashner

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/17): 29

Observations: I feel like I have to go back to that Verve Pipe comment from my introduction. I really liked the Verve Pipe when I was a teen, and though I don’t think the Villains album holds up very well two decades later, I was super pumped to see them play. So when me and my buddy showed up to their concert, we were kind of devastated to see them play in front of literally five people, at least one of which was a venue employee. I think the band fed off the energy of the crowd, which is to say they made an effort, but it wasn’t exactly a raucous show. It just kind of sat there. Anyhow, Cashner is just kind of a meh back-of-the-rotation starter at this point, and that's equally disappointing.

Prediction: Nostalgia is great, but nothing is as good as we remember during our time as children. That includes the Marlins.

Randy’s Prediction: Tigers

46. Matt Holliday

Position (Bats): OF (R)

Age (as of 4/1/17): 37

Observations: Well, he finally did it. People said that the Matt Holliday seven-year deal with the Cardinals was going to look ugly at the end, and this was the season where it finally did. Of course, the entirety of the contract was a rousing success, as Holliday was consistent and valuable all the way up through the 2015 season. Now? You can still count on Holliday to hit a bit–he posted a .279 True Average last year–but the twin haymakers of injury and age have landed on him. He’s strong enough to stagger around for a while, but sometime soon he’ll be down for the count.

Prediction: He’d fit pretty nicely as a part-time first baseman or designated hitter for some team. Think that the Indiansmight be interested?

Randy’s Prediction: Marlins

47. Jhoulys Chacin

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/17): 29

Observations: I’m certainly not too noble to say “I told you so.”

Prediction: He won’t come at quite as steep a discount as he did to the Braves last year, but he could still be one of the best bargains of the offseason. Let’s pick a low-to-mid-payroll team with a legitimate need for a starter: the Marlins.

Randy’s Prediction: Astros

48. Joe Blanton

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Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/17): 36

Observations: I just don’t trust him. Of course, I don’t mean that personally, it’s just really super hard to imagine that we live in a world where we should expect Joe’s performance to be that of this sort of mid-twos-ERA middle reliever. I guess DRA is with me–in spite of his strikeout-per-inning tendencies, he induced a ton of fly balls, and that metric put even his solid 2016 performance as below-average (DRA- of 103.4). I’d expect the ERA to hew a bit closer to his DRA in upcoming seasons, while also eventually losing some velo. That’s not exactly worthy of a three-year reliever deal, but he could be just fine next season.

Prediction: He seems like a Cardinals sort of player this late in his career, and with Trevor Rosenthal moving to the rotation, they could probably use additional bullpen depth.

Randy’s Prediction: Mets

49. Santiago Casilla

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/17): 36

Observations: If you buy DRA as the best metric of overall pitching performance–and I think perhaps you should–then Casilla is actually coming off the most valuable season of his career. (Warning, do not try telling this to a Giants fan.) Despite my sputtering insistence that there’s no possible way Casilla is actually as old as he is, he’s heading into the back end of a career as a good-but-unexceptional reliever, and he’ll probably be rightfully paid as such this offseason.

Prediction: Casilla finally finds a home team outside the Bay Area, picking up a contract with the Tigers as their token offseason free agent signing.

Randy’s Prediction: Giants

50. R.A. Dickey

Position (Bats): RHP

Age (as of 4/1/17): 42

Observations: Old knuckleballers don’t die, they just keep going on and on and on. Despite not making the Blue Jays’ postseason roster, Dickey provides reliable innings to any team willing to stomach his diminished performance. (His below-replacement performance by DRA probably could be taken with a grain of salt given his career habit of out-performing advanced metrics with his ERA.) Think of him as a poor man’s Colon, which is absolutely bonkers to say even five years removed from his Cy Young award.

Prediction: I’m really, really going to go out on a limb here and say that he signs with the Braves. I know, I’m unpredictable.

Randy’s Prediction: Pirates

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3 BLOCKBUSTER TRADES THAT MAKE SENSE By Michael Klopman – November 11, 2016 Hot Stove season may have just started, but it's already starting to feel like there won't be that much excitement surrounding signings. That's probably because this free agent class is widely known as one of the weakest in recent memory, especially when it comes to the starting pitching market -- the best starter out there is Rich Hill and he's going to be 37 heading into next season. Yeah, there are three big relievers out there with Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon. There are a few big hitters to get with Edwin Encarnacion, Mark Trumbo and Yoenis Cespedes. But overall, several of the most-coveted free agents are in their 30s and likely won't be franchise-changing acquisitions. Instead of a frenetic free agency frenzy this winter, we might get more trades than we're used to seeing, which would be a new, fun twist that this offseason seems like it will need. And there are plenty of candidates out there who could be major-impact players. So with the notion of a blockbuster-trade-filled winter in mind, let's explore some major trades that would totally make sense (despite the low probability that they happen). 1. Yankees trade for a starting pitcher named Chris. Flip. The. House. The Yankees didn't make any significant free agent acquisitions last offseason. Then they pulled off a fire sale to improve their farm system from a top-10 group to a top-five, some say even a top-two. They can easily use some of the prospects they got from trading Chapman, Andrew Miller and Carlos Beltran in a deal that would give them one of the two aces out there named Chris: Chris Archer or Chris Sale. Both have multiple years of control left in their contracts for not much money, especially when it comes to the Yankees. And acquiring either one of them gives the Yankees a much scarier rotation with Archer/Sale and Masahiro Tanaka at the top. And let's face it: While the Yankees are still in rebuilding mode, they're still always in winning mode. They never lose. They haven't had a losing season in 24 freakin' years. They traded two of the best relievers in the league -- and both played important roles in the World Series -- along with their best hitter and still won 84 games with a chance to take an AL Wild Card spot. Acquiring either Sale or Archer (yes, Tampa Bay trading him within the division seems far-fetched) could make them legitimate contenders in 2017. They could put together a package of top prospects Clint Frazier and Jorge Mateo, along with outfielder Brett Gardner in order to get either one of them. Seems like a steep price, but the Yankees would still have the Cubs' former top shortstop prospect Gleyber Torres among their other young stars-in-waiting, like Aaron Judge and Tyler Austin. 2. Nationals trade for Andrew McCutchen The Washington Nationals and Pittsburgh Pirates discussed a trade that would send center fielder and former National League Most Valuable Player Andrew McCutchen to D.C. back in July, according to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports. It would have made sense to pull off that trade then, and it still makes sense now. Trea Turner shouldn't be playing in center field anymore, as fun as it was to watch him show off his speed out there. He should be playing shortstop where he belongs. That would obviously leave a hole in the outfield for the Nats. They've tried using Ben Revere and Michael Taylor there, with little success. Taking a chance and hoping McCutchen's 2016 campaign (.256/.336/.430) was a fluke and not a trend could be the move that gets them past the National League Division Series next season. Not to mention that McCutchen will make just $14 million in 2017 and has a $14.5 million club option for 2018. As for the Pirates, they're still moving in the right direction. Their outfield would still be one of the best with Gregory Polanco and Starling Marte and prospect Austin Meadows waiting to get a chance. And they would improve their already-top-five farm system. That Nats could send Pittsburgh 19-year-old outfield prospect Victor Robles, who the Pirates reportedly wanted in July, and maybe pitching prospect Reynaldo Lopez and current starter Tanner Roark, who just posted a 2.83 ERA in 210 innings. 3. Orioles bring CarGo to Camden

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Baltimore is a team with plenty of needs, but a move like this certainly seems in line with what O's general manager Dan Duquette wants. MLB.com's O's reporter Brittany Ghiroli tweeted that Duquette is emphasizing the outfield, specifically looking for a left-handed bat. So why not Carlos Gonzalez? Wouldn't it be so much fun taking CarGo from one hitters ballpark and putting him in another, watching him rope homers toward the warehouse? Now, Gonzalez's defense in right field would only be a slight improvement for Baltimore's most recent right fielder, free agent Mark Trumbo (Trumbo had a -18.3 defensive runs above average in 2016 to Gonzalez's -6.5). But … dingers! The Orioles love power: They've had the Major League leader in homers in each of the last four years. So maybe Gonzalez takes over that role in Baltimore after Trumbo heads elsewhere. They could send reliever Brad Brach (the Rockies need to improve their bullpen), first baseman Trey Mancini (the Rox also need a first baseman) and one of their pitching prospects, despite none of them being ranked in MLB.com's top 100 prospects list. Cargo only has one more year and $20 million remaining on his contract anyways, so it would make sense for Colorado to move him now. It wouldn't solve Baltimore's starting pitching problems, but Duquette doesn't mind his rotation right now ... for some reason.

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Colorado Rockies Pitching: Bud Black’s Best Quotes By Kevin Henry – November 14, 2016 / Rox Pile During his introductory press conference on Monday, new Colorado Rockies manager Bud Black talked a lot about pitching. Knowing Black’s background as a player and coach, that shouldn’t come as a big surprise. Also knowing Colorado’s biggest problem in recent years, the fact that Black talked a lot about pitching shouldn’t surprise anyone either. “When I spoke with (Colorado general manager) Jeff (Bridich) and the guys, we had a really good day. The conversation was great. We talked a lot of good baseball and philosophy. We got to know each other. They were extremely honest and open and I tried to do the same,” Black told reporters. Of course, much of that conversation focused on pitching. While many of us outside the organization are focused on pitchers who could come in for the Rockies this season (I outlined some options here), Black believes there is talent on this team, including the pitchers, to carry it into the postseason. “The pitching side is going to be a challenge no matter where you are,” Black said. “The big thing is to keep the guys who have been here and who have made steps forward, especially last year, to keep that trend. Guys like (Chad) Bettis, (Tyler) Chatwood, and (Jon) Gray. We also need to get guys back on track who maybe had off years last year. A few guys in the bullpen who were maybe just a little off-kilter, we have to get those guys back on track. We have to develop the younger pitchers who are coming through the system. We have to get them acclimated to big league pitching. “There are 15, 16 or 17 guys who will ultimately take on a lot of the innings here. That number is staying relatively healthy and that’s critical. The talent base of the pitching is there when you look at the scouting report or when you hear scouts talk. They’re excited about the talent and the arms and the guys have to keep progressing.” Of course, when you talk about the Rockies and pitching, the subject of Coors Field must come up. With his experience managing the San Diego Padres, Black feels comfortable embracing the altitude at his new home park. “It definitely helps. Obviously I don’t know 81 games here during the regular season but I know nine or 10 times for nine years,” Black said. “I’ve seen shutouts. I’ve seen low-scoring games. As (Rockies TV play-by-play) Drew Goodman said, I’ve seen ping-pong games here as well. I would hope that I’m not surprised by anything and embrace it. “It’s baseball. Whether you’re playing in Miami, Toronto or St. Louis, it’s a baseball game. It’s our nine guys versus theirs and somebody has to come out on top in the end. We’re going to do everything we can to get our players where they need to be. The thing that I like that about this situation is that our players feel that too. I sense that. I get the vibe that our players feel good about themselves and each other and the team. That’s a great start. I’m excited about that.” Black had some interesting things to say about his starters, the much-maligned Colorado bullpen and his familiarity with the National League West. We’ve compiled some of the best of his quotes from his opening conference on those subjects on the next page.

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Colorado Rockies: Saturday’s News and Rumors Roundup By Kevin Henry2 days ago / Rox Pile Here are some news and notes, as well as a roundup of the latest rumors, on the Colorado Rockies for Saturday, November 12. Nolan wins again Nolan Arenado is having a heck of an offseason in the awards category. On Friday, Colorado’s All-Star third baseman was named as the Wilson Defensive Player of the Year at third base. The award takes into consideration several defensive ratings, including WAR and defensive runs saved. According to FanGraphs, Arenado led all Major League Baseball players at the hot corner with 20 defensive runs saved in 2016. The Defensive Player of the Year kudos follows Arenado being awarded with fourth consecutive Gold Glove as well as his second career Silver Slugger. There’s definitely some interest there We know that Matt Holliday is interested in a return to the Colorado Rockies and we know the Rockies need a first baseman. We’ve discussed the scenario in our look at four possible first basemen for the Rockies in 2017. However, Holliday reaffirmed his interest in a return to LoDo on Friday. Holliday told Troy Renck of KMGH-TV that he would certainly listen to an offer from the Rockies. “I don’t have any idea of what my market will be but if they were competitive with their offer I’d definitely consider it,” Holliday said. Holliday’s return to the Rockies would not only be an emotional lift for the Colorado fan base, but also provide the much-needed power from the right side of the plate the Rockies hope to find in the offseason. We detailed much of that in this article. You can check all of the latest rumors about the Rockies and potential signings by checking out our Rumors page here. Cuevas re-signs with Rockies Outfielder Noel Cuevas re-signed a minor league deal with the Rockies. The 25-year-old Cuevas put together a solid season in 2016, splitting time between Double-A Hartford and Triple-A Albuquerque. He pieced together a .296 average with three homers and 35 RBI. He also belted 18 doubles to help his slugging percentage rise to .414 and his OPS climb to .744, the second-highest mark of his career.

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Is 2017 Tyler Chatwood’s Goodbye With the Colorado Rockies? By Nolan Lees – November 14, 2016 / Rox Pile The future looks bright for the Colorado Rockies and their young starting pitching staff. But is Tyler Chatwood going to be a part of it? Tyler Chatwood has fewer than 100 MLB starts (and exactly 500 innings) under his belt. In some rotations, that would make him the youngster of the group. For the 2017 Colorado Rockies, that’s likely going to make him the grizzled veteran. Colorado acquired Chatwood in a trade with the Los Angeles Angels during the 2011 offseason, and after starting out in the bullpen, he cracked the starting rotation in August of 2012. The next season, Chatwood went 8-5 with a sparkling 3.15 ERA. His last start of the year was his best, as he threw seven shutout innings at home against the Boston Red Sox. The positive momentum from 2013 was short-lived though. Chatwood left an April start early after experiencing tightness in his pitching elbow, and in July he underwent Tommy John surgery, which sidelined him not just for the rest of that season, but all of 2015 as well. By the start of the 2016 season, the Rockies were hopeful Chatwood could contribute, but no one knew for sure what to expect from him. If Chatwood was negatively affected by the layoff though, it didn’t show in his numbers last season. He set career highs in starts (27), innings pitched (158.0), and wins (12). Heading in to the 2017 season, the Rockies have perhaps the deepest and most talented collection of starting pitching talent in franchise history. Between the breakout success of Jon Gray and Tyler Anderson and the promise of young prospects like German Marquez, Jeff Hoffman, Kyle Freeland and Riley Pint, it’s easy to forget about the steady, if unspectacular, work that Chatwood has given Colorado. This offseason, Chatwood is arbitration-eligible for the third and final time. MLBTradeRumors.com is projecting that he’ll earn $4.8M in 2017, a salary that’s more than fair for a mid-rotation kind of starting pitcher like Chatwood. After that, however, things get murky. One of the most drastic changes in MLB over the last decade or so has been the disappearance of the star-studded free agency class. The number of franchise-altering players available on the open market seems to shrink every offseason, and at no position is this more clear than starting pitcher. If your team is looking to bring in starting pitching help this offseason, your top option is probably Rich Hill. Hill is a good pitcher. He’s also a 37-year-old with 38 wins in 12 MLB seasons and a lengthy injury history. So what is that worth? Well, the early estimates put it around $50M over three seasons (about $16.7M per year). That’s a problem if the Rockies are intent on keeping Chatwood. If an injury-plagued pitcher who’s closing in on 40 and was pitching for the Long Island Ducks less than two years ago can make that kind of money on the open market, what will a guy over a decade younger with a more consistent track record fetch? The short answer is a lot. Big-market teams with deep pockets can afford to take risks on guys like Hill because one bad contract doesn’t prohibit their ability to make moves in the way it would for a team with less spending power. The Los Angeles Dodgers spent nearly $30M last season on known injury risks in Brett Anderson and Brandon McCarthy because they had the flexibility to make more moves when they eventually did get hurt. This puts the Rockies in a tough spot. If Chatwood stays healthy and pitches the way he’s capable of, there’s a good chance he’ll be outside of Colorado’s price range by the end of 2017. If he gets hurt again, he’ll be cheaper, but the Rockies would have to be hesitant about investing in a guy with that many medical red flags. If the Rockies were desperate for pitching options, there might be more incentive to make sure Chatwood stays in Colorado. But as we previously established, the franchise is flush with younger, cheaper pitching talent. Whether Hoffman or Marquez is better than Chatwood isn’t really the point. If the two of them combined are making less in a season than Chatwood is making in a month, the Rockies will probably likely decide to go with the young duo.

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Watching Chatwood pitch in another uniform in the 2018 season might be painful to think about for Rockies fans, especially if he can finally reach his potential next season. In the long run though, it’s probably best for all parties involved if this is Chatwood’s final season in Denver.

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Colorado Rockies Rumors: Mark Trumbo at First Base in 2017? By Kevin Henry – November 14, 2017 / Rox Pile The Colorado Rockies need a first baseman and Mark Trumbo is available. Could it be a perfect match? According to an article on MLB.com, it’s certainly possible. Trumbo paced Major League Baseball last season with 47 homers and was an offensive threat every time he stepped to the plate for the Baltimore Orioles. It’s one of the biggest reasons why we put him as one of the four options for the Colorado Rockies next season at first base. Now the biggest question is can he keep up that power in 2017 and beyond? That is truly the multi-million dollar question for the Rockies and every other team interested in Trumbo, who just picked up his first Silver Slugger award. The 30-year-old had never hit more than 40 homers in a season before 2016 and had just 22 splitting time between Arizona and Seattle in 2015. As you might remember, the Rockies were interested in Trumbo during his time in Seattle but talks fell through. In his seven-year career, Trumbo has seen action at first base in 371 of his 741 games. Last season with the Orioles, that number was just six as he played primarily in the outfield and served as the team’s designated hitter. Another thing to note on Trumbo is his second half of last season. While his overall 47 homers are certainly impressive, only 19 came after the All-Star break as he struggled with a .214 average. In August, he hit just .184 but mashed 10 homers. It was very much a “feast or famine” month (and second half) for Trumbo. Like we’ve discussed with Matt Holliday potentially coming over to the Rockies now that he is a free agent (and seemingly interested in a Rockies reunion), Trumbo would need an offseason to reacquaint himself with first base on a majority-of-games basis. It’s certainly not inconceivable, but it is something to think about. Also something to think about is another chip that would need to be thrown into the mix to sign Trumbo. The Rockies have the 11th overall pick in the 2017 MLB Draft. In order to sign a qualifying offer free agent like Trumbo, that pick would have to be given up. It definitely brings in the thought of “winning now” for the Rockies.

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Colorado Rockies Gaining Momentum as 2017 Team to Watch By Kevin Henry – November 14, 2016 / Rox Pile Of course, those of us who are close to the Colorado Rockies and follow the team on a daily basis think there is a legitimate chance that the squad could reach the postseason in 2017. There’s also starting to be a groundswell from outside the Rocky Mountain region that it could happen as well. Nicolas Stellini recently posted an article on FanGraphs saying that the Rockies may be closer than people think to reaching a winning record and respectability. In his article, Stellini hammers home the fact that Coors Field makes an impact on both Colorado pitchers and hitters. Still, he likes what he sees in Jon Gray, Tyler Anderson and a pitching staff that could be a nice complement to a potent Rockies offense with Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez and the rest of the offensive-laden lineup for 2017. One of my personal favorite quotes from the article is, “A heavy-hitting Rockies team with a competent pitching staff is a terrifying thought.” Boom. Matt Snyder talked about the Rockies in this article and gave six reasons why he thinks Colorado looks poised for a breakout season in 2017. Spoiler alert: Colorado’s young talent on offense and on the mound is discussed quite a bit. SportsOnEarth.com decided to put the Rockies into the “2017 would be great, but let’s not get crazy” category when they looked at all 30 Major League Baseball teams. The exact wording on the Rockies was… “The hiring of Bud Black was a sign that they’d like to make a splash sooner rather than later, and they do have some nice pitching coming. But “nice pitching in Colorado” is a bit of an oxymoron, and the Rockies have a ton of decisions to make in their outfield. Is the goal simply .500?” Perhaps a goal is .500 since that hasn’t been reached since the 2010 campaign. However, that’s not the goal for this team. While no major moves have been announced yet, it’s clear that the Rockies are heading into the offseason with a thought of “this is a year to make a move in the National League.” A new manager is in place along with a solid lineup and a young rotation that flashes brilliance at times. Yes, the first base issue has to be addressed and a bullpen needs to be strengthened, but there are far more positives than negatives for the Rockies heading into next season. It’s not just us locals noticing … and that’s a good thing.

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Colorado Rockies: Two Free Agents Who Could Help the Bullpen By Kevin Henry – November 14, 2016 / Rox Pile There’s no question that the Colorado Rockies will be looking for help this offseason in the bullpen. In fact, it’s one of the biggest puzzles the Rockies will need to solve if they are truly going to compete for a postseason spot in 2017. Last offseason, Chad Qualls, Jason Motte and Jake McGee were brought in to supposedly shore up the Colorado bullpen. However, the trio faced numerous injuries and could never seemingly get on track. Their struggles are part of the reason why the Rockies finished dead last in Major League Baseball in bullpen ERA with a 5.13 ERA. In his introductory press conference on Monday, new Colorado manager Bud Black said, “From the pitching side, you have to be successful on the mound. In this day and age, you just can’t outslug teams. There are going to be more runs scored here (at Coors Field). The depth of the pitching staff has to be solid. You have to have one through 12 or one through 13 who have to be talented pitchers. You can’t have a weak link. The weak link can mean multiple runs.” Stopping the multiple runs and shoring up the bullpen’s weak links will be critical for Colorado’s success in 2017. We’ve focused a lot on the bullpen, including some of these articles you should check out… Why Aroldis Chapman is a Bad Idea for the Rockies 3 Bullpen Arms the Rockies Should Consider in the Offseason Is Setup Man Neftali Perez Heading to the Rockies? Could Brandon Morrow Be a Fit for the Colorado Bullpen? Yes, we’ve talked about it a lot … and with good reason. However, after scouring the free agent wire, we’ve found a couple of more names that might make sense for the Rockies to add to their bullpen. Let’s dive in to the possibilities…

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Nolan Arenado to play for Team USA in 2017 World Baseball Classic 5:29 PM MT - ESPN.com Colorado Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado announced Sunday that he will be playing for Team USA in the 2017 World Baseball Classic. MLB.com's Thomas Harding reported the news, noting that Arenado also considered playing for Puerto Rico, since his mother is from there. Arenado was born in the United States. Arenado, 25, joins Washington Nationals ace Max Scherzer and Tampa Bay Rays ace Chris Archer among notable players who have committed to the World Baseball Classic, which is set to take place during spring training. Arenado, a two-time All-Star, won his fourth Gold Glove in four major league seasons this past week. He was also honored with his second straight Silver Slugger award after finishing the season with a major-league best 133 RBIs and NL-best 41 home runs.

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MLB Rumor Central: Could Matt Holliday return to the Rockies? Nov 11, 2016 - ESPN.com Free agent Matt Holliday is looking for a new team this winter after the St. Louis Cardinals decided not to pick up his option for the 2017 season, and a return to where it all began for the outfielder is not out of the question. Rumor CentralOn Friday, the 36-year-old told Troy E. Renck of Denver's KMGH-TV 7 that signing with the Colorado Rockies is a possibility. "I don't have any idea of what my market will be, but if they were competitive with their offer I'd definitely consider it," Holliday said, per Renck. Speaking on MLB Network Radio earlier this week, Holliday called the Rockies a "great young team" and said he would "be interested for a [number] of reasons," according to Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post. Holliday began his MLB career with the Rockies in 2004 and helped them reach the World Series in 2007. He finished second in National League MVP voting that season, which ended with Colorado ultimately coming up short against the Boston Red Sox in the Fall Classic. The Rockies traded Holliday to the Oakland Athletics prior to the 2009 season in a deal that brought Carlos Gonzalez, among others, to Colorado. Holliday hit .319 with a .386 on-base percentage, 128 home runs and 483 RBIs during his five seasons with the Rockies. He spent the past seven-plus seasons with the Cardinals, earning four All-Star selections and winning a World Series ring in 2011. Saunders also reported that "when the Cardinals came to Colorado in September, Holliday went out to dinner with friends and some former Rockies teammates and told them he would be interested in returning to Colorado." In 2016, the veteran posted career lows in batting average (.246) and on-base percentage (.322) for St. Louis but still managed to hit 20 home runs. -- Nick Ostiller

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MLB Rumor Central: Could Mark Melancon land in Colorado? Nov 11, 2016 - ESPN.com Could the allure of returning home entice Mark Melancon to sign with the Colorado Rockies? Rumor CentralAccording to John Perrotto of FanRag Sports, the 31-year-old closer and the Rockies are said to have “mutual interest” in a deal. Melancon is a native of nearby Wheat Ridge, Colorado, and was a three-star standout at Golden High School. Melancon had a combined 47 saves with the Pirates and Nationals last season and led the majors with 51 saves for Pittsburgh in 2015. Given his Colorado roots, Melancon should be keenly aware of the difficulties of pitching in the thin air of Coors Field. But he also will be competing for a job against a deep free-agent closer class that includes Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen. As Perrotto points out, owner Dick Monfort said this week that the Rockies will have their biggest payroll in franchise history in 2017, surpassing this year’s $114 million. The Rockies traditionally have to overpay for free-agent pitching help, so this could be a venue where Melancon finds his most lucrative payday. As for another possible suitor, Jon Morosi of MLB Network tweeted Thursday that the San Francisco Giants already have met with representatives for Melancon, Jansen and Chapman. ESPN's Keith Law ranks Melancon 23rd among available free agents, but cautions against giving him more than one year, citing injury concerns. - Doug Mittler

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If Rockies want to win, trading Carlos Gonzalez doesn't add up David Schoenfield, Sweet Spot Blogger - Nov 11, 2016 Carlos Gonzalez has been a member of the Colorado Rockies since 2009 and the subject of trade rumors for at least the past three seasons. He’s still in town, however, and is now entering the final year of a contract extension he signed in January 2011. He’ll earn $20 million in 2017 for his age-31 season, coming off a year in which he hit .298/.350/.505 with 25 home runs. Baseball-Reference valued him at 2.2 WAR, the value of an average major leaguer as opposed to his All-Star-caliber reputation. After six straight losing seasons – 2016’s 75-87 record was the team’s best since 2010 – the Rockies seem intent on making a playoff push in 2017, believing some of the pitching strides made from the likes of Jon Gray, Tyler Chatwood, Chad Bettis, Tyler Anderson and Jeff Hoffman bode well for the team’s best rotation in a decade. Combined with an offense that led the league in runs, there’s the odor of a potential playoff team here. Pitching depth is always an issue for the Rockies, however, and the bullpen was awful, so there’s also the feeling the roster still needs significant upgrades. After all, they did win just 75 games. Trading Carlos Gonzalez probably would cause more problems for the Rockies than it would solve. AP Photo/Matt York “Are we going to look to improve things in 2017 and add major-league players to our process for 2017? The answer is yes,” Rockies GM Jeff Bridich told MLB.com on Wednesday. “I’m hopeful that doesn’t have to come at the expense of players like Carlos Gonzalez or Charlie Blackmon.” Blackmon hit .324/.381/.552 with 29 home runs, worth 4.4 WAR. He’s under team control for two more seasons, although at 30, he’s not that much younger than Gonzalez. With the emergence of David Dahl, who impressed with a .315/.359/.500 line in 63 games as a rookie, the Rockies may think they have the outfield depth to deal from here. My take is that dealing Gonzalez or Blackmon would be a mistake. Trading either one opens up a hole in the outfield with no obvious in-house candidate. Gerardo Parra isn’t a viable option after a disastrous 2016 in which he was one of the worst hitters in the majors with a .271 OBP. That’s in Coors Field, mind you. Raimel Tapia reached the majors as well for a few games, and while he has been a top-100 prospect he could use more time in Triple-A (he spent most of 2016 at Double-A) to refine his game. He has had good contact skills in the minors, but he doesn’t walk, hasn’t hit for much over-the-fence power, has had poor stolen-base percentages and is still inconsistent on defense. He’s intriguing but also could settle in as a good fourth outfielder. Anyway, I just don’t think the Rockies would get much in return. Given his $20 million salary and the current cost per WAR on the free-agent market, his contract is probably a little above market value. The Rockies aren’t going to be able to trade away his salary and get a good return in player value as well. You also have to factor in that opposing GMs are always going to be wary of how a Rockies player will perform outside of Colorado (although it’s worth noting that Dexter Fowler has put up similar numbers after leaving the Rockies). Finally, Gonzalez has turned into a player with significant platoon splits, hitting just .237/.257/.400 the past three seasons against lefties. All of that cuts his value. So they may as well keep him. Plus, the Rockies should consider adding offense, not subtracting it. In the park-adjusted wRC+ at FanGraphs, their offense ranked just 16th in the majors and ninth in the NL (that’s not including pitchers). In fact, with a big hole at first base, the Rockies have discussed signing Gonzalez to an extension and possibly moving him to first base. That’s an interesting idea given the team’s problems there for a long time now. As I wrote in our offseason questions piece for the Rockies, they’ve basically been faking the position for a decade. Here’s the Rockies’ annual ranking among the 30 teams in Wins Above Average at first base. Other than 2014, when Justin Morneau won a batting title, it has been a sorry lot since Todd Helton in 2007: 2016: 24 2015: 26 2014: 8 2013: 28 2012: 23

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2011: 11 2010: 25 2009: 14 2008: 19 2007: 4 The Rockies need a first baseman for 2017. While Edwin Encarnacion in Coors Field would be a nice pipe dream, he’ll be priced out of the Rockies’ comfort zone. What about going after MLB home run leader Mark Trumbo? Estimates for him are in the four-year, $60 million range. He did slump in the second half last year and has always been a low OBP guy, but he’s better than the Ben Paulsen-types the Rockies have run out there. Mike Napoli, Kendrys Morales and Brandon Moss are other possible lower-cost options. With full seasons from Dahl and Trevor Story, this could be a fun lineup: CF Charlie Blackmon 2B DJ LeMahieu 3B Nolan Arenado RF Carlos Gonzalez 1B Mark Trumbo LF David Dahl SS Trevor Story C Tony Wolters/Tom Murphy Signing Trumbo would eat up a large chunk of available payroll – barring an increase, of course -- and you haven’t added any rotation or bullpen arms yet. Look, no matter what the Rockies do, the playoffs are probably a long shot unless the starting pitching really breaks out. Trading Gonzalez, however, is unlikely to get you any closer.