media, governance, and development. an empirical - unesco
TRANSCRIPT
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Media, Governance and DevelopmentChallenging Convention: An Empirical Perspective
Daniel Kaufmann, The World Bank Institutewww.worldbank.org/wbi/governance
Keynote Presentation at the International Press Freedom Day Conference, sponsored by Unesco,
Colombo, Sri Lanka, May 1st–3rd, 2006
2
Evidence-Based Challenge to 10 Myths on Press Freedom
1. Freedom of the Press as: i) needed for politics alone, & ii) a result of industrialization; a rich country ‘luxury’
2. Data on Media and Governance: scant, & not useful?3. Impact of Press Restrictions on Corruption, Poverty,
and Underdevelopment: Vastly Exaggerated?4. Laws on books are the crucial factor for press freedom?5. Broad press restrictions due to nat’l security: justified?6. Large State Ownership & Subsidies: very beneficial?7. Media not a Business undertaking, not an ‘industry’?8. Privatized Media = Competitive & Effective Media ?9. Do Elections in a country guarantee Press Freedoms?10. Int’l Community, UN, World Bank: cannot act on it?
3
Outline -- Press Freedom: approached within a Governance Evidence-Based Context
1. Broadening the Press Freedom perspective – a Governance Framework, for Media Development
2. Data & Evidence-Based Analysis: Agent of change3. Governance and Press Freedoms: improved recently?4. Press Freedom less corruption & poverty?5. Determinants of Press Freedom: Combined Judicial/
Legal, Regulatory, Ownership,& Political Determinants6. Independence, Competition, and Financial Viability7. Transparency Reforms, + IT revolution: new frontiers?
8. Role of State, Corporates, Int’l Orgs for Media
4
The Power of Data• Country and international indicators: towards
improved internationally comparable indicators on media freedom and governance– New data is available but not well publicized– Journalists can play a key role by tracking how
countries are doing, holding politicians accountable– Journalists can offer not only disclosures but provide
analysis and provoke debate about solutions• Media Industry and Firm-Level indicators:
data disclosure (including on real ownership)
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Six Dimensions of GovernanceGovernance as the set of traditions and institutions by
which authority in a country is exercised -- specifically:• The process by which those in authority are selected
and replaced – VOICE AND ACCOUNTABILITY – POLITICAL STABILITY & ABSENCE OF
VIOLENCE/TERRORISM• The capacity of government to formulate and
implement policies– GOVERNMENT EFFECTIVENESS– REGULATORY QUALITY
• The respect of citizens and state for institutions that govern interactions among them – RULE OF LAW – CONTROL OF CORRUPTION
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Control of Corruption: one Aggregate Indicator (selected countries from 204 worldwide, for illustration, based on 2004 research data)
-2.5
0
2.5EQ
UA
TOR
IAL
GU
INEA
KO
REA
, NO
RTH
TUR
KM
ENIS
TAN
UZB
EKIS
TAN
TAJI
KIS
TAN
BA
NG
LAD
ESH
VEN
EZU
ELA
ZAM
BIA
RU
SSIA
KO
REA
, SO
UTH
MA
UR
ITIU
S
SOU
TH A
FRIC
A
GR
EEC
E
ITA
LY
BO
TSW
AN
A
SLO
VEN
IA
CH
ILE
FRA
NC
E
SPA
IN
UN
ITED
KIN
GD
OM
NET
HER
LAN
DS
NO
RW
AY
NEW
ZEA
LAN
D
FIN
LAN
DPoor Governance
Governance Level
Margins of ErrorGood
Governance
Source for data: : 'Governance Matters IV: Governance Indicators for 1996-2004’, D. Kaufmann, A. Kraay and M. Mastruzzi, (http://www.worldbank.org/wbi/governance/govdata/); Colors are assigned according to the following criteria: Dark Red, bottom 10th percentile rank; Light Red between 10th and 25th ; Orange, between 25th and 50th ; Yellow, between 50th and 75th ; Light Green between 75th and 90th ; Dark Green above 90th.
7
Control of Corruption, 2004: World Map
Source for data: : 'Governance Matters IV: Governance Indicators for 1996-2004’, D. Kaufmann, A. Kraay and M. Mastruzzi, (http://www.worldbank.org/wbi/governance/govdata/); Colors are assigned according to the following criteria: Dark Red, bottom 10th percentile rank; Light Red between 10th and 25th ; Orange, between 25th and 50th ; Yellow, between 50th and 75th ; Light Green between 75th and 90th ; Dark Green above 90th.
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Control of Corruption: No worldwide improvement[Averages for various individual sources]
0.2
0.5
0.8
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
EIU
PRS
QLM
Poor
Good
PRS country coverage in 1996: 129, all other periods 140; QLM and EIU country coverage: 115 for all periods.
9
Voice & Accountability, 2004 (Selected Countries)
-2.5
0
2.5M
YAN
MAR
KORE
A, N
ORT
H
ERI
TREA
TUR
KME
NIS
TAN
SUD
AN
UZB
EKI
STA
N
SYRI
A
SO
MA
LIA
BEL
ARU
S
ZIM
BAB
WE
PAKI
STA
N
EGYP
T
RUS
SIA
VEN
EZU
ELA
MA
DAG
ASC
AR
INDI
A
GHA
NA
ARG
ENTI
NA
KORE
A, S
OUT
H
SOUT
H AF
RIC
A
GRE
ECE
MA
URIT
IUS
URUG
UAY
CHIL
E
EST
ONI
A
PO
LAND
HUNG
ARY
GE
RMAN
Y
NETH
ERL
AND
S
FINL
AND
NO
RWAY
DENM
ARKPoor
Governance
GovernanceLevel
Margins of Error
Good Governance
Source for data: : 'Governance Matters IV: Governance Indicators for 1996-2004’, D. Kaufmann, A. Kraay and M. Mastruzzi, (http://www.worldbank.org/wbi/governance/govdata/); Colors are assigned according to the following criteria: Dark Red, bottom 10th percentile rank; Light Red between 10th and 25th ; Orange, between 25th and 50th ; Yellow, between 50th and 75th ; Light Green between 75th and 90th ; Dark Green above 90th.
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Changes in Voice and Accountability, 1996-2004
-2
0
2
IVO
RY
CO
AST
ZIM
BA
BW
E
HA
ITI
NEP
AL
C. A
FR. R
EP.
KYR
GYZ
REP
.
ERIT
REA
RU
SSIA
VEN
EZU
ELA
BEL
AR
US
CU
BA
MYA
NM
AR
UZB
EKIS
TAN
PHIL
IPPI
NES
BO
LIVI
A
YEM
EN
JAM
AIC
A
SRI L
AN
KA
BU
RU
ND
I
BR
AZI
L
AZE
RB
AIJ
AN
ALB
AN
IA
RO
MA
NIA
TAN
ZAN
IA
ESTO
NIA
EL S
ALV
AD
OR
BU
LGA
RIA
LATV
IA
GA
MB
IA
MEX
ICO
SIER
RA
LEO
NE
IND
ON
ESIA
GH
AN
A
BO
SNIA
NIG
ERIA
SLO
VAK
REP
.
CR
OA
TIA
SER
BIA
Changes were calculated on the basis of the differences in country estimates from 1996 and 2004. Classification for major deteriorations and improvements were based on 75% confidence interval. Source for data: http://www.worldbank.org/wbi/governance/govdata/.
Major Deterioration
(selected countries)
Major Improvement
(selected countries)
Insignificant Change
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Political/Civil Rights in Africa, 1975-2005
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1975 1985 1995 2005
Perc
enta
ge C
ount
ries
% Not Free% Partially Free% Free
Source: Freedom House. Y-axis reports percentage of countries within the region with a free/partially free/not free rating, associated with scores in political rights and civil liberties.
12
Press Freedom in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1995-2005
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Y1995 Y1996 Y1997 Y1998 Y1999 Y2000 Y2001 Y2002 Y2003 Y2004 Y2005
Perc
enta
ge C
ount
ries
% Not Free% Partially Free% Free
Source: Freedom House. Y-axis reports percentage of countries within the region with a free/partially free/not free rating, associated with scores in press freedom.
13
Press Freedom (FRH) in the Middle East and North Africa 1995 vs. 2004: Deteriorating? [Freedom House Data]
65
25
10
Not FreePart FreeFree
Source: Freedom House. Y axis measures percentage of countries in the region with free press (rating of 30 or below), partly free (ratings between 30 and 60) and not free (rating above 60).
% countries in 1995
85
5
10
Not Free
Part Free
Free
% countries in 2004
14
Press Freedom in the World, 1995 vs. 2004: Stagnant?
32
34
34
Not Free
Part Free
Free
% countries in 1995
Source: Freedom House. Y axis measures percentage of countries in the region with free press (rating of 30 or below), partly free (ratings between 30 and 60) and not free (rating above 60).
36
26
38
Not Free
Part Free
Free
% countries in 2004
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Corruption is lower when the Press is Free
UGA TUV
TKM
TUR
TUN
TTO
TON
TGO
TMPTHA
TZA
TJK
TWN
SYR
CHESWE
SWZ
SUR
SDN
VCTLCAKNA
LKA
ESP
ZAF
SOM
SLB
SVN
SVK
SGP
SLE
SYC
YUGSEN
SAU
STP
SAM
RWA
RUS
ROM
QAT
PRT
POL
PHL
PER
PRYPNG
PAN
PAK
OMN
NOR
NGA
NER
NIC
NZL
NLD
NPL
NAM
MMR
MOZ
MAR
MNG
MDA
FSMMEX
MUS
MRT
MHL
MLT
MLI
MDVMYS
MWI
MDG
MKD
LUX
LTU
LIE
LBY LBR
LSO
LBN
LVA
LAO
KGZ
KWT
KOR
PRK
KIR
KEN
KAZ
JOR
JPN
JAM
CIV
ITAISR
IRL
IRQ
IRN
IDN
IND
ISL
HUN
HND
HTI
GUY
GNBGIN GTM
GRDGRC
GHA
DEU
GEO
GMBGAB
FRA
FJI
ETH
EST
ERI
GNQ
SLVEGY
ECU
DOM
DMA
DJI
DNK
CZE
CYP
CUB
HRV
CRI
ZAR
COGCOM
COL
CHN
CHL
TCD
CAF
CPV
CAN
KHM
BDI
BFA
BGR
BRN
BRA
BWA
BIH
BOL
BTN
BEN
BLZ
BEL
BLR
BRB
BGD
BHR
BHS
AZE
AUT AUS
ARMARG
ATG
AGO
ADO
DZA
ALB
AFG
-3
0
3
0 20 40 60 80 100Press Freedom
Cor
rupt
ion
Low
Low High
High Corruption
Source for control of corruption: : 'Governance Matters IV: Governance Indicators for 1996-2004’, D. Kaufmann, A. Kraay and M. Mastruzzi, (http://www.worldbank.org/wbi/governance/govdata/). Source for Press Freedom: Freedom House.
r = 0.67
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Control of Corruption vs. Freedom of the Press
-1.25
-0.75
-0.25
0.25
0.75
1.25
Not Free Partially Free FreePress Freedom
Con
trol
of C
orru
ptio
n
Good
r = 0.67
Source for Control of Corruption: : 'Governance Matters IV: Governance Indicators for 1996-2004’, D. Kaufmann, A. Kraay and M. Mastruzzi, (http://www.worldbank.org/wbi/governance/govdata/); Source for Press Freedom: Freedom House. Terciles divided according to Press Freedom ratings (192 countries total). Free: 0-30 (39); Partly Free: 31-60 (63); Not Free: 61-100 (90).
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The 300% Development Dividend From Controlling Corruption: Lowering Corruption increases Incomes per
capita 3-fold (and not viceversa)
High Corruption Medium Corruption Low Corruption
$300
$3,000
$30,000
Data Source for calculations: KK 2004. Y-axis measures predicted GDP per capita on the basis of Instrumental Variable (IV) results for each of the 3 categories. Estimations based on various authors’ studies, including Kaufmann and Kraay.
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Finland0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
-2 -1 0 1 2'Voice' (including freedom of the press), Civil
Liberties and Accountability
Infa
nt M
orta
lity
Voice & Press Freedoms also Matter for Lowering Infant Mortality
Source: KKZ 1999
19
Elections do not guarantee Freedom of the Press Data from Freedom House on Electoral Democracies 2000
FH ‘ELECTORAL DEMOCRACIES’ FH ‘NON ELECTORAL DEMOCRACIES’
FREE PRESS
PARTLY FREE PRESS
NOT FREE PRESS
Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Benin, Bolivia, Botswana, Bulgaria, Chile, Costa Rica, Czech Republic, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Estonia, Grenada, Guyana, Hungary, Israel, Jamaica, Kiribati, Latvia, Lithuania, Mali, Malta, Marshall Islands, Mauritius, Micronesia,Mongolia, Nauru, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Poland, Samoa, Sao Tome and Principe, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, SolomonIslands, South Africa, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, Thailand, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay
Albania, Argentina, Armenia, Bangladesh, Brazil, Cape Verde, Colombia, Croatia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Fiji, Georgia, Ghana, Guatemala, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Honduras, India, Indonesia, Macedonia, Madagascar, Malawi, Moldova, Mozambique, Namibia, Nepal, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Paraguay, Romania, Russia, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Turkey, Ukraine, Vanuatu, Venezuela
Antigua and Barbuda, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Burkina Faso,Comoros, Gabon, Jordan, Kuwait, Lesotho, Mexico, Morocco, Pakistan, Peru, Senegal, Tanzania, Uganda, Serbia
Central African Republic, Djibouti, Kyrgyz Republic, Liberia, Niger,, Sri Lanka, Togo
Afghanistan, Algeria, Angola, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Belarus, Bhutan, Brunei, Myanmar, Burundi, Cambodia, Cameroon, Chad, China, Congo, Congo, Dem. Rep., Ivory Coast, Cuba, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Guinea, Iran, Iraq,Kazakhstan, Kenya, North Korea, Laos, Lebanon, Libya, Malaysia, Maldives, Mauritania, Oman, Qatar, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Swaziland, Syria, Tajikistan, Gambia, Tunisia, Turkmenistan, United Arab Emirates, Uzbekistan, Vietnam, Yemen, Zambia, Zimbabwe
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The Central European ‘Laboratory’
• An industry transformed in short period of time• New legislation enacted• State owners replaced by investors, foreign and
domestic• Some journalism of excellent quality takes hold• Emergence from the dark: data on a promising
new industry
21
Media Development and Press Freedom: A Case study in Poland: Rzeczpospolita
• Government sold stake in Party daily (1991)• Civil Liberties and Press Freedom soared• Managers did management training• Journalists studied economics• Beefed up economic & Business coverage• Advertising revenues soared, spurred by
strong demand for business page• Today newspaper is independent, profitable
22
Eastern Europe Media: Advertising Expenditure [Index: 1994=100]
0100200300400500600700800900
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Czech RepublicHungaryPolandRussiaSlovenia
Source: World Association of Newspapers: World Press Trends 2001
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A Media Capacity Development Program Illustration: Russia/CIS program [CIDA, WB, MDLF, et al]
• Needs assessment done in 2000 identified business environment as the major constraint
• Management training network in five Russian cities (later expanded to Ukraine)
• Worked with 500 regional newspapers and media outlets, trained 2600 managers of local and regional newspapers over three years
• Focus: Financial independence, management• Continuing as independent network of private
media consultants
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For Press Freedom, 10 critical points:1. Evidence-Based, & impact on Corruption and Poverty2. Political environment (Freedom of Expression, etc)3. Diversify Ownership and Competitiveness Reforms4. New Technologies for competition: web, cell, radio5. Regulatory, Legal and Economic environment 6. Transparency reform framework: New frontiers 7. Quality journalism, plurality of news sources8. Business management and plurality of revenue
sources – Financial Sustainability9. Broad Governance & Media Development Framework10. Role for foreign FDI, IFI/World Bank, Donors
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Power of Media, Transparency and Data for Development• “If you cannot measure a problem, you cannot address it.”
Lord Kelvin• “Empirical research shows that countries that defend civil
liberties and protect freedom of the press do a better job tackling corruption. A free press matters for accountability and therefore for development”
Paul Wolfowitz, President of the World Bank• “There has never been a famine in any country that has
been a democracy with a relatively free press.”Amartya Sen, Nobel Laureate
………………………………………………………………….
In sum: Traversing towards a more ambitious era on Media Freedom: to combat the $1 trillion dollar corruption industry, and for development and tackling poverty -- for the sake of over one billion people that live with less than 2 dollars a day