Media Research

The time: 1932The place: IowaEvent: Election of Sect’y of StateWho: Ola Babcock MillerGeorge Gallop’s Mother-In-LawFIRST POLITICAL POLL

The Surveying Industry

$1 billion dollar a year businessGallup -Institute of American Public OpinionNow about 300 surveying companiesClients: corporations, candidates, media

Gallop’s Method at first

“quota sampling”1936 Presidential CampaignHe predicted FDR’s victory over Alf Landon1948 Dewey lost to Truman & Gallop realized that he was 5.3% off in his prediction.

Quota Sampling

Determine total populationDetermine key groupsSample groups proportionately

Quota sampling example

Total population 100,000Urban males 40,000Urban females 30,000 Rural males 15,000 Rural females 12,000 Others 3,000

Gallop’s New MethodProbability Sampling

“like making soup”Four Factors: sample size sample selection margin of error confidence level

Sample Selection

Magic number = 384Total population being studied = n“Interval” = n / 384

Examples top of p. 32810,000 students / 384 = every 26th

student (interval)

Probability SamplingKey Variables

Sample size The number of people interviewed

Sample selection How people are drawn to be interviewed

Margin of error Percentage survey may be off mark

Confidence level Degree of certainty about accuracy

Evaluating Surveys Associated Press Checklist

How many people interviewed?How were they selected?When was survey taken?What was margin of error?How was poll conducted? Mail? Phone? Door to door?

How were questions worded?What was the question sequence?

Sample Size for 95% Confidence Level

Population Size Infinity 500,000 100,000 50,000 10,000 5,000 3,000 2,000 1,000

Sample Size 384 384 383 381 370 357 341 322 278

Margin of Error for Various Sample Sizes

For population size

Sample Size 384 600 1,067 2,401 9,605

of infinity:

Margin of Error 5% points 4% points 3% points 2% points 1% point

Criticisms of Polling

Polls can influence undecided voters – Bandwagon effectPoliticians watch the polls too much, rather than just doing what’s right.

Gallup’s reply

“George Gallop, who died in 1984… (replied that)…good surveys give voice to the ‘inarticulate minority’ that legislators otherwise might not hear.”

Measuring Audience Size

Print media – Audit Bureau of CirculationsBroadcast media – audience surveys

interviewsdiariesmeters

Broadcast ratings

Began in 1929 – Archibald Cross, radio1940’s – Nielsen – demographics: age and gender groups1950’s Nielson moved into TV ratings

TV ratings- 2 scales

“rating” - % of TV households viewing a show“share” - % of households with a TV set turned onStudy the sample Nielsen report in the text.

Audience Analysis

Demographics – developed in the 1930’s by Gallup, Crossley, and othersCohort Analysis – the generationsGeodemographics – Zip code marketsPsychographics – VALS Values & Life Styles