THE USE OF STATISTICS IN MEDICAL GEOGRAPHY IS MORE USEFUL THAN SOCIAL RESEARCH (YES)

Group 11A membersDITHOLE B. K. 200902946MOLEBEDI B. K.

200902902

MODIMOOPELO T. E.200904993

MANGOLE L.200902962

MATHUMO S.2009029

DIPHOKO20090331

Medical geography is a new area of health research that is a hybrid between geography and medicine, dealing with the geographic aspects of health and health care (Adugna A, 2000)

Social research is research involving social methods, theories and concepts, which can enhance our understanding of the social processes ( i.e. diseases, medical knowledge) and problems encountered by individuals and groups in society. (Heffernan, 2002)

Statistics A type of mathematical analysis involving the use of quantified representations, models and summaries for a given set of empirical data or real world observations (e.g. public health-spatial-data). Statistical analysis involves the process of collecting and analyzing data and then summarizing the data into a numerical form (Investopedia 2011)

DEFINATION OF TERMS

What are statistics used for in medical geography?

1. To describe and summarize spatial-health data. E.g. In describing the size of the population infected with a

particular illness and deciding on the amount of capital needed for treatment.

2. To make simplify complex spatial patterns e.g. disease diffusion

SWINE-FLU VACCINE

(Wikipedia 2011)

3. To estimate the probability of outcomes for an event at a given location. E.g Spatial statistics must have been used to estimate the rate of the spread of AH1N1 virus in Botswana.

4.To use samples of geographic data to infer characteristics for a larger set of geographic data (population). E.g. 13% HI-Virus prevalence in UB may suppose that there is a similar status nation wide using statistical correlation.

5. To determine if the magnitude or frequency of some phenomenon differs from one location to another.(t-test) – to be amplified in subsequent slides.

6. To learn whether an actual spatial pattern matches some expected pattern.E.g. The vision of Batswana to have access to good quality health facilities by 2016. will be spatially examined by 2016

(Wikipedia 2011)

Quantitative models with application in spatial-health research

HYPOTHESIS TESTING

T-TEST, F-TEST, CHI-SQUARE

NULL HYPOTHESIS

STATISTICAL PROBABILITY

THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION CURVE

FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION

MEASURES OF CENTRAL TEDENCY

Hypothesis testing in an epidemiological scenario

A hypothesis is a proposed assumption explaining the phenomenon -thus it needs to be tested.

T-test this is a test used to determine whether there is statistical significance of difference between the means of two population distributions (Lowry, 1999)

Example: Research conducted between Gaborone and F-town to determine if there was a statistically significant difference in the 2009 AH1N1 Prevalence rate.

GABORONE F-TOWN

Phase 1 2 Satellite 4

Extension 14 3 New stance 2

Phakalane 1 Selepa 1

Bontleng 5 Donga 0

Blok 3 2 Molapo Estate 2

Mogoditshane 0 Area w 1

T - testing

T- Testing ----- null-hypothesis’ (Ho)

-----Alternative hypothesis (H1)

If the H1 is Accepted, then there is a statistically significant difference between GABS and F-TOWN.In this case several assumptions can be adopted.e.g. the first incidence of AH1N1 was in Gaborone and then diffused to F-townIf (Ho) is Accepted –then the two incidents may have no or little relation

At this phase, other mathematical models of statistics that may be employed is probability based projections.

To determine the spread / prevalence rate. From this the medical-geographic researchers can draw dawn maps

indicating disease hotspots to see the whole picture.

Other applications of statistical models in medical geography

The models are not only confined to disease diffusion but can also be used to help the govt. determine which settlements need social amenities (particularly health care)

Population size & settlement area are functions of building health care amenities.

Future projections of medical knowledge.

Demographic Dynamics i.e. Mortality rate fertility rate & immigration numbers.

ADVANTAGES OF UTILIZATION OF STATISTICAL METHODS OVER SOCIAL RESEARCH

AccuracyInfinite applicationsNot bound by cultural, ethical and religious limitationsThe laws that given the operations of this concepts

are universalThe use of social research requires the knowledge of

the society in question and other complex issues like societal norms

Can you find out the rate of a find out the spread-rate of an epidemic using questionnaire?

Neither can you interview to find out the number of the infected!!

Methods of social research fail to be useful on matters involving huge populations like pandemic outbreaks concerning the entire Human population. E.g. the WHO used statistical applications In controlling the spread of 2009 Avian flu

In matters of urgency -the social research methods also prove to be ineffective.

Healthcare and medical status information is ethically sensitive and confidential.

E.g. matters concerning sexual healthSo social research are inapplicable.

AH1N1 EPIDEMIC

28 August 2009 | GENEVA -Monitoring of outbreaks from different parts of the world provides sufficient information to make some tentative conclusions about how the influenza pandemic might evolve in the coming months.WHO is advising countries in the northern hemisphere to prepare for a second wave of pandemic spread. Countries with tropical climates, where the pandemic virus arrived later than elsewhere, also need to prepare for an increasing number of cases.(World Health Organization, 2009)

More downfalls of social research

• Collection of data in social research involves the use of a variety different styles of question structuring and wording. Nevertheless the reproduction & distribution of questionnaires involves huge sums of capital.

Conclusion and recommendations

Statistics, particularly mathematical models used in manipulating the dynamics of population distributions are more effective than social research methods and the biggest mistake one can make is to think of them being generalizations.

Statistical methods are not generalizations but they are systematic and logical concepts that follow mathematical laws moreover they are scientifically proven to give accurate results.

References

• INVESTOPEDIA ULC. (2011). Statistics. Retrieved 10 7, 2011, from INVESTOPEDIA: Adugna A. (2000). Lesson 12: The Medical Geography Of Ethiopia. Ethiopia.

• Drcath. (2008). Drcath. Retrieved 2011, from What is research?: http://www.drcath.net

• http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/statistics.asp#axzz1aTaIoXK0• Lowry. (1999). Chapter 11. t-Test for the Significance of the

Difference between the Means of Two Independent Samples. Retrieved October 7, 2011, from Concepts & Applications of Inferential Statistics: http://faculty.vassar.edu/lowry/ch11pt1.html

• World Health Organization. (2009). H1N1 Global Alert and Response (GAR) . Geneva: World Health Organization.