medium-term energy development* · objectives 2015-2019 * modern energy access is defined as a...
TRANSCRIPT
Slide 1
Medium-Term Energy Development*
March 2014
Directorate of Energy, Telecommunications and Informatics
Ministry of National Development Planning/National Development Planning Agency
* A draft for the 3rd RPJMN
Slide 2
introduction
Slide 3
Prolog
• Indonesia will have ‘a new elected’ President in October 2014
• RPJMN 2015-2019 (National Medium-Term Development Plan) should be formulated– by new President
– the elaboration of the Vision, Mission, and Program of the (elected) President.
– will be elaborated into the Annual Government Working Plan
– implementation of the RPJPN (3rd phase of the RPJPN)
• RPJPN: National Long-Term Development Plan– Long term strategy as guidance for mid-term national development
plan.
– A 20 year plan (2005-2025)
Slide 4
Development Planning System
RKP
RPJM
Nasional
RPJP National
Renstra
KL
Renja -
KL
RAPBN RKA-KL
APBN Rincian
APBN
Guidance
Elaborated
Guidance
* At Central Government Level
Guidance
20 year period
Input
Guidance
Guidance
5 year period
Annually Reference
Harmonized
National Long-term Development Plan
National Mid-term Development Plan
Government Annual Working Plan
Annual Government Budget Plan
Annual Government Budget
Ministry Annual Working Plan
Annual Ministry Working Budget Plan
Annual Government Budget Detail
Ministry Strategic Plan (Mid-term)
Slide 5
direction
Slide 6
Directions for Mid-Term Plan Formulation
RPJPN (Long-Term Plan)
• Achieving income per capita equivalent to middle income country (MIC) in 2025
• Unemployment level below 5%• Poverty level below 5%
Goal
Staging• Emphasizing attainment of economic
competitiveness based on natural resources, human resources, and science and technology.
• Focusing on: • Electricity supply reliable and efficient• Starting nuclear for electricity utilization*
MP3EI*
* Master Plan on Acceleration and Expansion of Economic Development
Basic infrastructure
must be fulfilled 3rd RPJMN
2010
PDB: USD 700 Billion
income/capita: USD 3,000
2025
PDB: USD 4.0 – 4.5 Trillion
income/capita: USD 14,250 – 15,500
2045
PDB: USD 15.0 – 17.5 Trillion
Income/capita:
USD 44,500 – 49,000
Malaysia USD 16,794
Thailand USD 9.503
Philippines USD 4,410
Vietnam USD 3,788
Sumber: IMF Data, 2012; in US Dollars
Slide 7
Necessary Condition
$-
$2,000.00
$4,000.00
$6,000.00
$8,000.00
$10,000.00
$12,000.00
$14,000.00
$16,000.00
10%
11%
12%
Projected GDP Growth per Capitasource: BPS Data, 2012, Bappenas projection
2012: USD 3,563
-15.00%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
(15.00)
(10.00)
(5.00)
-
5.00
10.00
Economic growth vs infrastructure investment in Indonesia (1997-2013)
Growth
Total InfrastructureInvestment Share ofGDP, %
Investment in infrastructure has direct impacts to economic growth. To achieve MIC status, Indonesia needs 12% nominal economic growth.
* Source: Background Study Presentation
Slide 8
current condition
Slide 9
Indonesia
Country Indonesia Thailand Philippines Malaysia Japan
Population (million) 242.33 69.52 94.85 28.86 127.83
GDP (billion USD; 2005) 402.19 210.25 136.26 187.28 4621.97
GDP PPP (billion USD; 2005) 992.1 530.78 345.03 409.05 3932.2
GDP PPP/pop (USD; 2005/cap) 4,094.00 7,634.93 3,637.64 14,173.60 30,761.17
Energy Prod. (MTOE) 394.57 68.74 23.89 84.27 51.67
Net Import (MTOE) -184.8 54.22 18.04 -4.05 421.1
TPES (MTOE) 209.01 119.15 40.45 75.91 461.47
TPES/Pop (TOE/capita) 0.86 1.71 0.43 2.63 3.61
TPES/GDP (TOE/000 USD;2005) 0.52 0.57 0.3 0.41 0.1
Elec. Cons (TWh) 165.71 154.19 61.5 122.12 1003.09
Elec. Cons/Pop (kWh/cap) 0.21 0.22 0.12 0.19 0.12
CO2 Emission (MT) 425.88 243.19 77.12 193.96 1186.04
Selected Indicators for 2011,Source: IEA, Key World Energy Statistics
Slide 10
Strategic Issues
1. Exclusive energy development
Access to electricity services is limited
• Electrification ratio: 80%
• Capacity/production: 44 GW/180
thousand GWh
Access to energy for cooking is limited
• City gas only covers ± 150.000 HH
• LPG supplies ± 44 million HH
Access to Modern Energy Service in ASEAN, 2011source: IEA, ASEAN Energy Outlook
Slide 11
…
• Pricing policy is not sustainable
• Subsidy (electricity and fuel oil) is not only
for the poor but also for the rich
• Impede development of new and
renewable energy and Overburden
government spending
• Highly rely on fuel oil
• Lack of alternative fuels (natural gas, biofuel)
for transportation
• Significant imports of crude oil and fuel oil
• Consumption 78,9 million KL (import:
41,2 million KL or 52%); Refinery
capacity:1.150 thousand BPD.
• Lack of national energy reserves
• Export commodity vs value added
• Unbalanced energy mix
2. Energy security and resilience
Incremental energy demand in Indonesia, 2011-2035Source: IEA, ASEAN Energy Outlook
Fossil Fuel Net Trade by CountrySource: IEA, ASEAN Energy Outlook
Slide 12
Challenges
Year 2013 Ina Mal
ay
Thai Viet Philip
.
Infras 82 25 61 110 98
Road 78 23 42 102 87
Railway 44 18 72 58 89
Port 89 24 56 98 116
Air
Transport
68 20 34 92 113
Electricity 89 37 58 95 93
Cellular 62 27 49 21 81
Fixed-line 82 79 96 88 109
‘Middle income country trap’ Competitiveness Index*
*World Economic Forum� Demografic bonus
� Geografi – archipelagic (resources and demand mismatch)
� Environment – carrying capacity
� Domestic investment capacity
� Technology capability
Slide 13
International Benchmark
99.373.7 89.7
97.394 100 97
32
65
85
0
20
40
60
80
100
Electrification Ratio (%) Urban (%) Rural (%)
Electrification Ratio (%), 2012
Low Electrification Ratio – Unable to support the country’s growth
0
0.1
0.2
0.3Indonesia
China
MalaysiaThailand
Japan
Energy Efficiency (KOE/$2005 PPP)Smaller means more efficient
Higher energy efficiency which shows
lack of energy conservation and
unbalanced energy mix (dominated by
fossil fuel).
0.096
0.062
0.120.11
0.090.0920.07
0.110.1
0.081
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
Thailand Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Vietnam
Tariff Comparison
Residential Tariff (US$/kWh) Industrial Tariff (US$/kWh)
* Source: Bappenas Background Study Presentation
Slide 14
objectives and policies
Slide 15
Objectives 2015-2019
* Modern energy access is defined as a household having relaible and affordable
access to clean cooking facilities and electricity (incl. adequate level of consumption)
1. Achieving sufficient economic growth
2. Lower CO2 emission, compared to BAU
Inclusive basic energy modern service Enhanced energy security and resilience
1. Electricity access : ER nearly 100%
1. PP capacity ~ on/off-grids
2. Utilizing new and renewableenergy
2. Energy access for HH
1. Citi Gas Development
2. LPG service expansion
3. Usage of local energy (biogas)
1. Enhancing final energy supply
1. Increasing Oil refinery capacity
2. Developing Nat. gas transmission lines
3. Setting up national energy reserves
2. Alternative fuel for transportation:
1. Providing nat. gas fuel pumps
2. Developing biofuel
3. Increasing energy efficiency
1. Audit energy and energy conservation
4. Formulated pricing policy
Slide 16
Main Policies
• Energy diversification
• Prioritizing local new and renewable energy
• Enhancing oil and gas infrastructure
• Promoting energy conservation
• Optimizing pricing policy
Slide 17
investments requirements and funding
Slide 18
Investment Requirement 2015-2019
SectorEstimated
(in Trillion IDR)
Roads 851
Rail 222
Urban Transport 115
Sea Transport 424
Ferry 80
Air Transport 165
Electricity 1,080
Energy 420
Water Resources 845
Clean Water and Waste 666
Housing 384
ICT 200
Total 5.452
* Source: Bappenas Background Study Presentation
* Numbers not final
Implementation needs: (1)
extra commitment; (2) strong
leadership; and (3) a holistic
bureaucratic reform
Slide 19
Source of Fund
Government Spending
Government Spending
Financing GapFinancing Gap
SoE ~ 6%SoE ~ 6%
PPP ~ 20%PPP ~ 20%
Off Balance Sheet ~ 2%Off Balance Sheet ~ 2%
± IDR 350T
± IDR 1,090T
IDR 2,741T
1. The figure shows CAPEX only and rehabilitation, not include O&M 2. Not final
Alternative FinancingAlternative Financing
Estimated requirements
IDR. 5,452 T
Estimated requirements
IDR. 5,452 T
Gap ~ 50%Gap ~ 50%
± IDR 93T
~ 22%~ 22%± IDR 1,178T
* Source: Bappenas Background Study Presentation
Slide 20
…
*)Regional direct loan still not a valid law and/or approach yet.
Funding Method Description
Government Funding
Central Government
APBN Annual central budget allocated for infrastructure.
ODA Loan Foreign currency based loan from donor.
Country Bond Bond issuance based on country credit rating.
Asset Liquidation Fund generated from asset sales, securitization, IPO of BUMN.
Regional Government
APBD Annual regional budget allocated for infrastructure.
Municipal Bond Bond issuance based on municipal credit rating.
Regional Direct Loan Direct lending to regional government.
SOE Funding
Cash pool+ operating CF Funded by SOE’s liquid asset or operating cashflow
Company Bond Bond issuance based on SOE credit rating.
SOE Direct Loan Donor’s sub-sovereign loan. Commercial bank loan.
PPP FundingPrivate Fund with Gov’tsupport
Investor’s equity with project finance + VGF and guarantee
Off-BS Funding
Availability Payment Investor’s equity with project finance, based on multi-year annuity payment contract from central/regional government
SOE Direct Loan with sovereign guarantee
Donor or commercial bank loan based on sovereign guarantee
Strategic Funding
Vertical, Horizontal Split Hybrid of above methods by splitting assets
Cross-sector package Hybrid of above methods by packaging linked projects
Others Infrastructure fund/bond, Project bond and other financial pack
Social-related Infrastructure
EconomicInfrastructure
Suita
bili
ty o
f F
undin
g to Infr
astr
uctu
re
* Source: Bappenas Background Study Presentation
Slide 21
Strategic Projects*
• Fast Track Programs (Phase 1&2), IPP and PPP
• Developing geothermal power plants
• City gas projects: 80 thousand customers
• Oil refinery 1 units (300 thousand BPD)
• Developing national energy reserves
• Floating storage refueling unit: 2 units, 250 BCF
• Gas transmission lines: 680 km, 200 BCF
• Natural gas pumps: 55 units
• Pilot project for nuclear power plant: 2 units
* proposed
Slide 22
THANKS !Direktorat Energi, Telekomunikasi, dan Informatika
Lantai 4, Gedung Utama, BAPPENAS
Jl. Taman Suropati No.2, Menteng, Jakarta 10310
Tel/Fax: (021) 391 2422
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