medium term forecasts 2016 final - the hugo group...• there are big problems with the way the eu...
TRANSCRIPT
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Implications of the ‘politics of anger’!Medium Term Forecasts!
Political Outlook"
FortheHugoGroup,July2016
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Two key global themes"
• Agrowing‘poli:csofanger’indevelopedeconomies
• Thedigi:sa:onofeverything
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The ‘politics of anger’"• Alurchtona:onalism,protec:onismandisola:onismin
developedeconomies
• Tradeliberalisa:onnolongeracceptedinprincipleasafundamental‘good’
• Immigra:onahot-buGonissue,stokingacceptanceofracist/separa:stagendas
• Richvspoor-incomeinequalitydemandsananswer
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Brexit and Trumpism"
TrumpandBrexitvoters
Globalelites/the‘1%’Developing
worldpopula>ons
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Elites gap linked to income inequality"
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Influence inverted"
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The Brexit vote "
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Interpreting Brexit"• Referendaarepoli:caldynamite(askJohnKey)• Reinforcesthepowerofoldervotersinanageingsociety• TherearebigproblemswiththewaytheEUworks• Butdemocracyworks
– Ablowfor‘theliGleguy’– Abloodiednoseforthe‘elites’
• Ablurringofacceptedversionsof‘leR’and‘right’– An:-globalisa:onleRelitesupportedEUmembership– Atoddswithworkingclasscons:tuency– Conserva:ve‘right’alsospliton‘in’or‘out’– Corbyn’sdefiance–aUKversionofSanders’srefusaltoquit
• AharbingerfortheUSpresiden:alelec:on?
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Global political/policy implications"• Vola:leelectoraloutcomesincrease• Freemovementofpeoplebecomesmoredifficult,butislikely
tobepreserved• Tradeliberalisa:onbecomesmuchmoredifficulttoextend
– TPPmustbeindoubtnow– RCEPlikelytoremainstalled(esp.byIndia)– Bi-lateraltradeagreementsmorelikelytosucceed
• Incomeinequalitydemandsapoli:calanswer
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How to respond?"• Emergingratherthanclear• Areturntomercan:lismoverprinciple?
– Well-suitedtoEMpolicymentality– Longtermlowergrowth– PressureonforEUbreak-upasstatesseektotakebackmonetary,
fiscalandborderpolicycontrol• Cross-bordertaxreform• Incomeandwealthtaxreform
– UniversalBasicIncome?• Execu:ve(andgovernance?)payregula:on• Vo:ngsystemreform?
– HowwouldtheUK,USandAustraliavoteiftheyhadhadMMP?
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‘Responsible nationalism’ – isolationism in drag?"
“Thepoli:calchallengeinmanycountriesgoingforwardistodevelopa‘responsiblena>onalism’.
“Itisclearthatthereisahungeronthepartofelectorates,ifnottheDavossetwithincountries,forapproachestopolicythatprivilegelocalinterestsandlocalpeopleovermorecosmopolitanconcerns.
“Channelingthishungerconstruc:velyratherthandestruc:velyisthechallengeforthenextdecade.
“Wenowknowthatneitherdenyingthehunger,norexplainingthatitisbasedonfallacy,isaviablestrategy.”
– LarrySummers,June24,WashingtonPost
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Digitisation of everything"• InternetofThingsbecomesubiquitouswithinadecade• AIbecomesincreasinglyreal/advancesveryfast• Automa:onofexis:ngjobscreatessocialstrain
– Espforolderworkers• NZisbehindthecurve,butcatchingup
– E.g.,Aucklandtrafficmanagementwillinclude‘sensing’vehicletechwithin5years
• But–amorebalancedarrayofthreatsandopportuni:es
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Threats"• Truism–speedofdigitalchangeis3,000xfasterthanchangein
theIndustrialRevolu:on– Evenifhalf-true,thatimpliesahugesocietalchallenge
• Tradi:onally‘skilled’but‘rou:ne’jobsthreatened– Lowskill/lowproduc:vity/lowwageservicejobsreplaceexis:nghigher
paidoccupa:ons/careerpaths– Poten:alforwideningofcurrentincomegap
• Educa:onandskills– Howwellcanweequipourselvesandourchildrenforthisfuture?
• Poli:calar:cula:on– Whowillspeakmostcoherentlyaboutthewaytomeetthischallenge?
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Opportunities"• Bigdataasanaidtosolvingmajorproblems,e.g.,
– Climatechange– Crime– Trafficconges:on/mobility(driverlesscars)
• Greaterconvenience– Dealingwithgovtagenciesandserviceproviders– BeGertargetedretailexperiences– Householdmanagement– Mul:plechannelsforpersonalcommunica:on– Massiveincreaseinmediaconsump:on
• Costsaredrivendownrelentlessly
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NZ POLITICS!
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NZ – political medium term overview "• Strong-ishgrowth
– Fuelledbypoli:callychallenginglevelsofimmigra:onratherthanproduc:vitygains
• Respectable,improvingfiscalposi:on• Lowgovtdebt,butveryhighhouseholddebt• S:llvulnerabletoglobalshocks,butpoli:callystableand
peaceful• Growinginequalityerodessocialcohesion• Housingaffordabilityremainsanintractableproblem
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Inequality in NZ"
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Lowest income households spend 40%+ of income on housing "
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NZ is not alone, but …"
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NZ housing costs are high relative to income"
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Anger vs hope"• Inequalityplayingoutinhousingaffordabilityand
homelessnessdebate• Butelsewhere,theeconomyisperformingrela:velywell• Inwardmigra:onispartlycausedbyNZlookingaGrac:ve
comparedtoalterna:ves• ‘Angry’narra:vesnotplayingwelltoamajorityofNzers
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Political party responses"• Na:onal:adeptresponsivecapacity/risk-averse
– Billiondollarhousinginfrastructurefund– Raisingbenefitsforthefirst:mesince1973– Paddlinghard,ratherthangenngahead– Sofar,immunetoglobalpoli:calwobbles-worried
• Labour:strugglingforrelevance/authen:city– Winningonsomehousingissues– Talking,notyetac:ng,onfutureofwork– Muddledontrade– S:lltalkingtoitself–100yearscelebra:onslikelytomakethis
painfullyclear–morecons:tu:onalchange?
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Political party responses"• Greens:tornbetweensingleissuesandfullpolicyplaoorm– E.g.,strongonwater– Butstrugglingforcut-throughelsewhere
• NZFirst:bangingthesamedrum–hardtoignore– Immigra:onbad– ForeigninvestmentandTPPbad– Mostintunewiththeangryvote;hopingtoprofitfromBrexitand
Trumpism• Maori:seekingbi-par:sanacceptability
– Andasurpriseresult
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Current state of party polling"
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The Labour-Green MOU"
OneNewsColmarBruntonpoll,June22016
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Minor parties"
• UnitedFuture–vulnerable– IfGreensstoodaside,Labourcouldtaketheseat– Counthisoneseatout–Natsarefocused,though
• ACT–countDavidSeymourin– Atjust1.26%,Actcouldhave2MPs–but…
• Maori–willholdWaiariki– Ambi:ouscandidateselec:onplans– Expect2seats,maybemore?
• NocomebacksforManaorConserva:ves
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Govt combinations"
• Nats/NZFirst– RequiresKeyandPeterstofindanaccommoda:on– S:llthemostlikelyoutcomeatthis:me
• Nats/Maori/Act– RequiresMaoritopollaround4.5%(6seats)
• Labour/Greens/NZFirst– RequiresuncomfortablechoicesbyLabour
• Labour/Greens/Maori– RequiresMaoritopollstrongly