meeting of energy futures and energy cooperation in the northeast asia region

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Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation in the Northeast Asia Region in the Northeast Asia Region Viet Nam- Country Report Viet Nam- Country Report 23-24 September-Beijing-China 23-24 September-Beijing-China By: Dr. Pham Khanh Toan By: Dr. Pham Khanh Toan & Nguyen Minh Bao & Nguyen Minh Bao Institute of Institute of Energy Energy

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Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation in the Northeast Asia Region. By: Dr. Pham Khanh Toan & Nguyen Minh Bao Institute of Energy. Viet Nam- Country Report. 23-24 September-Beijing-China. Contents. Introduction - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region

Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation

in the Northeast Asia Region in the Northeast Asia Region

Viet Nam- Country ReportViet Nam- Country Report

23-24 September-Beijing-China23-24 September-Beijing-China

By: Dr. Pham Khanh ToanBy: Dr. Pham Khanh Toan & Nguyen Minh Bao& Nguyen Minh Bao Institute of EnergyInstitute of Energy

Page 2: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region

ContentsContents

1.1. IntroductionIntroduction

2.2. Recent Changes in Energy Sector and Recent Changes in Energy Sector and Policies Policies

3.3. Work Progress and Interim Results of Work Progress and Interim Results of LEAP PathsLEAP Paths

4.4. Conclusions and RecommendationsConclusions and Recommendations

Page 3: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region

1. Introduction1. Introduction• Viet Nam stretches Viet Nam stretches

along the east coast of along the east coast of Indochina over a length Indochina over a length of 1,600 km between of 1,600 km between the northern latitudes of the northern latitudes of 8800 and 23 and 2300..

• Total land area: 330,000 Total land area: 330,000 square kilometers.square kilometers.

• Shares common Shares common borders with the borders with the People’s Republic of People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the China (PRC) in the north, and with Laos north, and with Laos and Cambodia in the and Cambodia in the west. west.

Page 4: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region

Population:Population:

• 2009: 85.8 million (result from the general population census in 01 April 2009).

• From 1999 to 2009: Population were increased by 9.5 million with an average growth rate of 1.18% per year, reducing nearly 0.5% compared with previous 10 year period (1989-1999).

GDPGDP: :

. . Annual average GDP Growth Rate: 7.6% in Annual average GDP Growth Rate: 7.6% in 1990-2005, and 7.3% in 2005-2009.1990-2005, and 7.3% in 2005-2009.

IntroductionIntroduction

Page 5: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region

2. Recent Changes in Energy Sector and Policies

Page 6: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region

Current Status and Recent Trends Current Status and Recent Trends in Energy Sector in Energy Sector

Total Energy Use by Sector 1990-2007,(including Biomass Energy)Total Energy Use by Sector 1990-2007,(including Biomass Energy)

• Total energy consumption in 1990 was 16,760 KTOE and increased to Total energy consumption in 1990 was 16,760 KTOE and increased to 40,345 KTOE in 2007 with average growth rate of 5.3 percent per year. 40,345 KTOE in 2007 with average growth rate of 5.3 percent per year.

Page 7: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region

Current Status and Recent Trends Current Status and Recent Trends in Energy Sector in Energy Sector

• In 2007, residential In 2007, residential sector consumes sector consumes 39% of total final 39% of total final energy, followed by energy, followed by industry (36%), industry (36%), transportation (20%), transportation (20%), commerce (4%) and commerce (4%) and agriculture (1%). agriculture (1%).

The share of energy The share of energy consumption by consumption by sector in 2007.sector in 2007.

Page 8: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region

EVN53.1%

Private2.8%

JSC14.6%

Import

4.2%Others

1.3%

VINACOMIN

3.7%

Foreign IPP, BOT

10.4%

PETRO

VIETNAM

10.0%

HPPs39.8%

Coal thermal16.0%

Oil thermal2.7%

Gas turbine32.8%

Import3.7%

Others2.8%

Gas thermal2.3%

Page 9: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region

5655

6552

7408

8283

9255

10187

11286

12636

13952

16048

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

0

5000

10000

15000

20000ImportDieselIPP/BOTTua bin khíNhiệt điện dầuNhiệt điện thanThuỷ điệnPmax

Gas turbineGas turbineOil thermalOil thermal

Coal thermalCoal thermalHPPHPP

Page 10: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region

1010

86948

75955

60533

68699

53647

4679041275

36410

31137

27040

13.9%

15.2%

16.9%

13.4% 13.4%

14.7%

12.8%

13.5%

10.6%

14.5%

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

10%

11%

12%

13%

14%

15%

16%

17%

18%

Power Gen.-GWhGrowth Rate

Page 11: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region

11

12145 km 746/25862 MVA

8497 km 119/19094 MVA

3438 km 16/7500 MVA

Volume of transmission network as of 2009

Rate of rural electrification as of end of 2009

-100% districts have electricity from national grid or local system

- 97.6% communes (8880/9101 communes); and

- 95,1% rural households have electricity from grid (13.95/14.67 mill. hh)

Page 12: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region

National Energy Saving & TargetNational Energy Saving & Target

• In April 2006, the Prime Minister of Viet Nam signed In April 2006, the Prime Minister of Viet Nam signed Decision No. 79/2006/QD-TTg approving the EE&C Decision No. 79/2006/QD-TTg approving the EE&C program for the period 2006-2015. program for the period 2006-2015.

• The target of the program is to save 3 to 5 percent of The target of the program is to save 3 to 5 percent of total national energy consumption over the period 2006-total national energy consumption over the period 2006-2010 and 5 to 8 percent in period 2011-2015. 2010 and 5 to 8 percent in period 2011-2015.

Viet Nam’s Energy PolicyViet Nam’s Energy Policy

Page 13: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region

Viet Nam’s Energy PolicyViet Nam’s Energy Policy

National Energy Efficient Use PoliciesNational Energy Efficient Use Policies

• In July 2010In July 2010, the Law on Energy Conservation and Efficient Use , the Law on Energy Conservation and Efficient Use was passed by the National Assembly. was passed by the National Assembly.

• The Law includes 12 chapters, 48 articles to institutionalize The Law includes 12 chapters, 48 articles to institutionalize policies on national energy resources, energy security, policies on national energy resources, energy security, environment protection and meeting demand of socio-economic environment protection and meeting demand of socio-economic development.development.

• The Law specifies the responsibilities of sectors with high energy The Law specifies the responsibilities of sectors with high energy saving potential such as industry, transport, service and saving potential such as industry, transport, service and residential. residential.

• The Law stipulated that large energy-consuming industries and The Law stipulated that large energy-consuming industries and buildings have to report on energy consumption and plans to buildings have to report on energy consumption and plans to improve efficiency, and to designate internal energy managers improve efficiency, and to designate internal energy managers responsible for energy-efficiency work. responsible for energy-efficiency work.

Page 14: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region

Target Sectors for Promoting Energy Efficiency: Target Sectors for Promoting Energy Efficiency:

Three sectors account for about 95% of total final energy Three sectors account for about 95% of total final energy consumption, with high potential for energy efficiency: consumption, with high potential for energy efficiency:

• Industry:Industry: Consumption grew from 4,663 KTOE in 1990 to Consumption grew from 4,663 KTOE in 1990 to 14,359 KTOE in 2007, annual growth rate of 6.8% per year, 14,359 KTOE in 2007, annual growth rate of 6.8% per year, accounting for 27.8% of total energy consumption in 1990 and accounting for 27.8% of total energy consumption in 1990 and increased to 35.6% in 2007. increased to 35.6% in 2007.

• Transportation:Transportation: consumption grew from 1,413 KTOE in 1990 consumption grew from 1,413 KTOE in 1990 to 8,671 KTOE in 2007, annual growth rate of 11.3% per year. to 8,671 KTOE in 2007, annual growth rate of 11.3% per year.

• Residential:Residential: Household use of modern energy (such as LPG Household use of modern energy (such as LPG and electricity) has average growth rate of 16.3% per year and electricity) has average growth rate of 16.3% per year during 1990–2007.during 1990–2007.

Viet Nam’s Energy PolicyViet Nam’s Energy Policy

Page 15: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region

Main Measurements for Energy Efficiency in Target Main Measurements for Energy Efficiency in Target Sectors Sectors

a, a, Industrial SectorIndustrial Sector::

- Renewal and renovation of existing equipment and facilities.- Renewal and renovation of existing equipment and facilities.

- Selecting the suitable measures for energy use management. - Selecting the suitable measures for energy use management. - Planning access to energy-efficient equipments, modern production lines.Planning access to energy-efficient equipments, modern production lines.- Select high efficient technologies for new power plants.Select high efficient technologies for new power plants.

b, b, Transport SectorTransport Sector: :

- Means of transportation must comply with the technical standards- Means of transportation must comply with the technical standards

- Improvement and promotion of using public transport system.- Improvement and promotion of using public transport system.- Development and using clean and other substitution fuels.Development and using clean and other substitution fuels.

c, c, Residential and Commercial SectorResidential and Commercial Sector: :

- Energy efficient use in buildings, lighting systems and residential sectors.- Energy efficient use in buildings, lighting systems and residential sectors.

- Introduction of energy-saving appliances, renewable energy in households - Introduction of energy-saving appliances, renewable energy in households and commercial buildings, along with management measurements.and commercial buildings, along with management measurements.

Viet Nam’s Energy PolicyViet Nam’s Energy Policy

Page 16: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region

Viet Nam’s Energy PolicyViet Nam’s Energy Policy

National Policies in Nuclear EnergyNational Policies in Nuclear Energy

• In January 2006In January 2006, the Prime Minister approved “Sstrategy to , the Prime Minister approved “Sstrategy to apply nuclear energy for peaceful purposes by 2020”. apply nuclear energy for peaceful purposes by 2020”.

• In April 2008In April 2008, the Institute of Energy prepared an , the Institute of Energy prepared an Investment Report on construction of nuclear power plants in Investment Report on construction of nuclear power plants in Ninh Thuan province. Ninh Thuan province.

• The Investment Report of the first nuclear power plant The Investment Report of the first nuclear power plant project in Phuoc Dinh and Vinh Hai, Ninh Thuan province, project in Phuoc Dinh and Vinh Hai, Ninh Thuan province, 4000 MW, 4000 MW, was approved by the National Assembly in was approved by the National Assembly in November 2009November 2009. At each site, two nuclear units with . At each site, two nuclear units with capacity of 1000 MW each, operation anticipated in 2020. capacity of 1000 MW each, operation anticipated in 2020.

Page 17: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region

Viet Nam’s Energy PolicyViet Nam’s Energy Policy National Policies in Nuclear EnergyNational Policies in Nuclear Energy

• In June 2010, the Prime Minister approved “Orientation In June 2010, the Prime Minister approved “Orientation planning for nuclear energy development up to the year 2030”.planning for nuclear energy development up to the year 2030”.

• Three phases of NPP development: Three phases of NPP development:

- The first phase (by 2015): Approval of investment project, - The first phase (by 2015): Approval of investment project, selecting sites and contractors, and training the human selecting sites and contractors, and training the human resource; Preparing mechanisms, policies on for project resource; Preparing mechanisms, policies on for project construction and management. construction and management. - The next five year stage (by 2020), the first unit of the Ninh The next five year stage (by 2020), the first unit of the Ninh Thuận Nuclear Power Plant 1 (1000MW) will be finished Thuận Nuclear Power Plant 1 (1000MW) will be finished and put into operation by 2020. The second plant will also and put into operation by 2020. The second plant will also be built during this period.be built during this period.

Page 18: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region

Viet Nam’s Energy PolicyViet Nam’s Energy Policy

National Policies in Nuclear EnergyNational Policies in Nuclear Energy

- The phase 3: 2020-2030, next nuclear power The phase 3: 2020-2030, next nuclear power plants will be builtplants will be built

• According to the development orientation, about eight According to the development orientation, about eight sites for power plants located in five provinces of Ninh sites for power plants located in five provinces of Ninh Thuan, Binh Dinh, Phu Yen, Ha Tinh and Quang Ngai. Thuan, Binh Dinh, Phu Yen, Ha Tinh and Quang Ngai.

- Up to 2030Up to 2030: Total NPP capacity will be 8,000 : Total NPP capacity will be 8,000 MW by 2025 and 15,000 MW by 2030, MW by 2025 and 15,000 MW by 2030, accounting for about 10 percent of the total accounting for about 10 percent of the total capacity of power system. capacity of power system.

Page 19: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region

2. Work Progress and Interim Results of LEAP Paths

Page 20: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region

IntroductionIntroduction

In EASS Project, LEAP was used as a tool for energy In EASS Project, LEAP was used as a tool for energy demand projection, and development of alternative energy demand projection, and development of alternative energy scenarios addressing climate change problems. scenarios addressing climate change problems.

This section will provide the progress and interim results of This section will provide the progress and interim results of LEAP Paths including:LEAP Paths including:

• Methodology and DataMethodology and Data

• Energy Demand StructureEnergy Demand Structure

• Key AssumptionsKey Assumptions

• Interim results of LEAP Paths.Interim results of LEAP Paths.

Page 21: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region

Methodology and Methodology and DataData

• Energy demand was constructed and projected for the Energy demand was constructed and projected for the sectorssectors such such as industry, transport, agriculture, residential and commercial as industry, transport, agriculture, residential and commercial sectors .sectors .

• In each sector, energy consumption was broken down in to sub-In each sector, energy consumption was broken down in to sub-sectors and projected based on driving activities and energy sectors and projected based on driving activities and energy intensities. intensities.

• Driving activities were chosen based on the development plans or Driving activities were chosen based on the development plans or strategies of subsectors. strategies of subsectors.

• Energy intensities were selected based on the available data from Energy intensities were selected based on the available data from the researches and recent surveys. the researches and recent surveys.

• Nuclear capacity scenarios were developed based on the programs Nuclear capacity scenarios were developed based on the programs of the country. of the country.

Page 22: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region

ResidentialResidential

UrbanUrban

RuralRural

Lighting Lighting

Cooking Cooking

RefrigerationRefrigeration

Air ConditionersAir Conditioners

Cooking Cooking

RefrigerationRefrigeration

Air ConditionersAir Conditioners

Lighting Lighting

Energy Demand StructureEnergy Demand Structure

Page 23: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region

IndustryIndustry

Iron and SteelIron and Steel

Cement Cement

Energy Demand StructureEnergy Demand Structure

Blast FurnacesBlast Furnaces

Elec. Arc FurnacesElec. Arc Furnaces

HeatHeat

ElectricityElectricity

ElectricityElectricity

Rotary KilnsRotary Kilns

Vertical KilnsVertical Kilns

Clinker ProductClinker Product

Cement ProductCement Product

Clinker ProductClinker Product

Cement ProductCement Product

Page 24: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region

Energy Demand StructureEnergy Demand Structure

IndustryIndustry

Brick MakingBrick Making

Pulp & PaperPulp & Paper

Coal KilnsCoal Kilns

Rice Husk KilnsRice Husk Kilns

PulpPulp

PaperPaper

HeatHeat

ElectricityElectricity

HeatHeat

ElectricityElectricityOthersOthers

Page 25: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region

Energy Demand StructureEnergy Demand Structure

TransportTransport

PassengerPassenger

OthersOthers

RoadRoad

RailwayRailway

Car Car Bus Bus

MotorbikeMotorbike

Train Train

AviationAviation Air plane Air plane

FreightFreight RoadRoad

RailwayRailway

Truck Truck

Train Train

MaritimeMaritime VesselVessel

WaterwayWaterway BoatBoat

Page 26: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region

Energy Demand StructureEnergy Demand Structure

AgricultureAgriculture

IrrigationIrrigation

Sea CatchingSea Catching

Electric PumpElectric Pump

DO PumpDO Pump

Land PreparationLand Preparation Mechanized rateMechanized rate

Mechanized rateMechanized rate

TractorsTractors

ShipsShips

Page 27: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region

Key Assumptions Key Assumptions • GDP:GDP: Viet Nam’s GDP is projected to grow at an average annual Viet Nam’s GDP is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 6.9%, 7.2% and 7.0% in the periods of 2005-2010, 2011-rate of 6.9%, 7.2% and 7.0% in the periods of 2005-2010, 2011-2020 and 2021-2030 respectively in the base case scenario. 2020 and 2021-2030 respectively in the base case scenario.

Period 2006-2010 2011-2020

2021-2030

Annual Growth Rate

6.9% 7.2% 7.0%• Population Growth Assumption Population Growth Assumption

Year Growth Rate

2000-2010 1.1%

2010-2020 1.0%

2020-2030 0.7%

• Urbanization rate: 44.5% in 2030 Urbanization rate: 44.5% in 2030

Page 28: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region

2020 2025 2030

Minimum Nuclear Scenario 1,000 4,000 6,000

BAU Nuclear Scenario 1,000 6,000 11,000

Maximum Nuclear Scenario 1,000 8,000 15,000

Nuclear Power Plant Development Scenarios Updated Nuclear Power Plant Development Scenarios Updated

Unit: MWUnit: MW

Key Assumptions Key Assumptions

Page 29: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region

Interim Results Interim Results

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

2030 AGR.% (05-30)

Biomass 7,450 6,375 6,093 5,987 6,078 6,602 - 0.48

Coal 6,072 10,610 13,980 18,350 22,827

28,704 6.41

Diesel 5,688 8,089 11,652 16,860 23,854

34,027 7.42

Electricity 3,933 6,841 10,602 16,087 23,050

33,130 8.90

Gasoline 2,708 3,951 5,815 8,539 12,199

17,381 7.72

Jet Kerosene

432 658 1,014 1,562 2,346 3,524 8.76

Kerosene 310 370 462 597 808

1,104 5.21

LPG 896 1,410 2,072 2,945 4,001 5,371 7.43 Natural Gas 100 554 1,023 1,597 2,274 3,133 14.77 FO 1,605 2,145 2,828 3,739 4,752 6,053 5.45 Wood 5,239 4,852 4,399 3,907 3,302 2,668 -2.66

Total 34,431 45,856 59,939 80,170 105,492

141,698 5.82

Final Energy Demand by Fuels (KTOE)Final Energy Demand by Fuels (KTOE)

Page 30: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region
Page 31: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region
Page 32: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region

Interim Results Interim Results Final Energy Demand by Sectors (KTOE)Final Energy Demand by Sectors (KTOE)

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030AGR.%

(05-30)

Residential

14,532

15,034

15,618

16,411

17,188

18,259 0.92

Industry 9,719

16,248

23,042

32,620

43,703

59,291 7.50

Transport 7,169

10,438

15,375

22,721

32,891

47,759 7.88

Agriculture

1,382

1,855

2,523

3,401

4,339

5,543 5.71

Commercial

1,629

2,281

3,382

5,017

7,371

10,847 7.88

Total

34,431

45,856

59,939

80,170

105,492

141,698 5.82

Page 33: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region
Page 34: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region
Page 35: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region

Interim Results Residential: Final Energy Demand by Sub-sectors

(KTOE)

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030AGR.% (05-30)

Urban 2,334

3,056

3,965

5,123

6,474

8,153 5.13

Rural

12,198

11,977

11,653

11,288

10,713

10,106 -0.75

Total

14,532

15,034

15,618

16,411

17,188

18,259 0.92

Page 36: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region
Page 37: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region

Interim Results Industry: Final Energy Demand by Sub-sectors

(KTOE)2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 AGR.%

(05-30)Iron and Steel

363

1,715

3,059

4,430

5,522

6,642 12.3

Cement

3,160 5,238

5,707

6,246

6,494

6,743 3.1

Brick Making

2,393 2,895

4,243

6,220

9,024

13,092 7.0

Pulp and Paper

353

579

949

1,565

1,869

2,174 7.5

Others

3,450 5,822

9,084

14,160

20,794

30,641 9.1

Total

9,719

16,248

23,042

32,620

43,703

59,291 7.5

Page 38: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region
Page 39: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region

Interim Results Interim Results Industry: Final Energy Demand by Fuels (KTOE)Industry: Final Energy Demand by Fuels (KTOE)

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030AGR.% (05-30)

Biomass 1,427 1,034 1,518 2,227 3,225 4,671 4.9

Coal 4,777 8,900 11,823 15,701 19,658 24,928 6.8

Diesel 265 380 523

720 944 1,237 6.4

Electricity 1,870 3,527 5,675 9,047 13,364 19,921 9.9

Kerosene 12 15 18

22 27 31 3.9

LPG 109 309 495

770 1,110 1,583 11.3

Natural Gas 100 554 1,023 1,597 2,274 3,133 14.8

FO 1,159 1,528 1,966 2,535 3,101 3,787 4.9

Total 9,719 16,248 23,042 32,620 43,703 59,291 7.5

Page 40: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region
Page 41: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region

Interim Results Interim Results Transport: Final Energy Demand by Sub-sectors Transport: Final Energy Demand by Sub-sectors

(KTOE)(KTOE)

20020055

20102010 20152015 20202020 20252025 20302030 AGR.% AGR.% (05-30)(05-30)

Passenger Passenger 33323332 51455145 80288028 1252512525 1905119051 2897328973 9.09.0

Freight Freight 35313531 48704870 67596759 93829382 1273412734 1728417284 6.66.6

OtherOther 307307 423423 587587 815815 11061106 15011501 6.66.6

TotalTotal 71697169 1043810438 1537515375 2272122721 3289132891 4775947759 7.97.9

Page 42: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region
Page 43: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region

Interim Results Interim Results Transport: Final Energy Demand by Fuels (KTOE)Transport: Final Energy Demand by Fuels (KTOE)

20052005 20102010 20152015 20202020 20252025 20302030 AGR.% AGR.% (05-30)(05-30)

DieselDiesel

3,723 3,723 5,406 5,406

7,959 7,959

11,805 11,805

17,239 17,239

25,352 25,352 8.08.0

GasolineGasoline

2,708 2,708 3,951 3,951

5,815 5,815

8,539 8,539

12,199 12,199

17,381 17,381 7.77.7

Jet KeroseneJet Kerosene

432 432 658 658

1,014 1,014

1,562 1,562

2,346 2,346

3,524 3,524 8.88.8

Residual Residual Fuel OilFuel Oil

307 307

423 423

587 587

815 815

1,106 1,106

1,501 1,501 6.66.6

TotalTotal

7,169 7,169

10,438 10,438

15,375 15,375

22,721 22,721

32,891 32,891

47,759 47,759 7.97.9

Page 44: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region
Page 45: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region

Interim Results Interim Results Electricity Generation: Output by Fuels -BAU Electricity Generation: Output by Fuels -BAU

(KTOE)(KTOE)20052005 20102010 20152015 20202020 20252025 20302030

CoalCoal

769 769

1,762 1,762

3,620 3,620 6,323 6,323

9,241 9,241

14,927 14,927

HydroHydro

1,845 1,845

2,732 2,732

3,341 3,341 4,347 4,347

5,776 5,776

8,210 8,210

Natural GasNatural Gas

1,770 1,770

1,752 1,752

1,934 1,934 1,953 1,953

2,568 2,568

2,930 2,930

NuclearNuclear

- -

- -

- -

527 527 3,080 3,080

5,473 5,473

DieselDiesel

73 73

18 18

4 4

2 2

- -

- -

FOFO

140 140

284 284

26 26

20 20

19 19

16 16

TotalTotal

4,597 4,597

6,548 6,548

8,925 8,925

13,172 13,172

20,685 20,685

31,556 31,556

Page 46: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region
Page 47: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region

Interim Results Electricity Generation: Global Warming Electricity Generation: Global Warming

Potential Potential (Mil. Tone CO2e)(Mil. Tone CO2e)

20052005 20102010 20152015 20202020 20252025 20302030

BAUBAU 21.921.9 32.332.3 48.748.7 7575 105.6 105.6

164.2 164.2

Maximum NuclearMaximum Nuclear 21.921.9 32.332.3 48.748.7 7575 95.4 95.4

144.3 144.3

Minimum NuclearMinimum Nuclear 21.921.9 32.332.3 48.748.7 7575 115.9 115.9

189.0 189.0

Page 48: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region
Page 49: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region

4. Conclusion and 4. Conclusion and RecommendationRecommendation

Page 50: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region

Conclusions Conclusions

As shown above, an interim result was achieved As shown above, an interim result was achieved based on the updated data on energy, economics based on the updated data on energy, economics and main driving activities.and main driving activities.

• EEnergy demand of residential, industry, and transport nergy demand of residential, industry, and transport sectors was broken down in to sub-sectors and end-uses.sectors was broken down in to sub-sectors and end-uses.

• Energy demand was projected based energy Energy demand was projected based energy consumption indexes and driving activities referred consumption indexes and driving activities referred from the development strategies of sectors and sub-from the development strategies of sectors and sub-sectors. sectors.

• GHG Mitigation Scenarios were developed based GHG Mitigation Scenarios were developed based on the BAU, maximum and minimum scenarios on on the BAU, maximum and minimum scenarios on nuclear power development. nuclear power development.

Page 51: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region

As the first steps, we initially restructured the LEAP Dataset for As the first steps, we initially restructured the LEAP Dataset for residential, industry and transport that each sector was divided in residential, industry and transport that each sector was divided in sub-sectors and end-uses. Moreover, the sub-sectors and end-uses. Moreover, the GHG Mitigation GHG Mitigation Scenarios were also Scenarios were also developed only on supply side based on developed only on supply side based on BAU, Minimum and Maximum nuclear power development paths. BAU, Minimum and Maximum nuclear power development paths. Therefore, these is still room for “next steps” of AES Project, Therefore, these is still room for “next steps” of AES Project, including:including:

• Development of alternative energy scenarios on the demand side -Development of alternative energy scenarios on the demand side -including energy efficiency, fuels substitution, and demand-side including energy efficiency, fuels substitution, and demand-side renewable energy to provide energy services and reduce GHG renewable energy to provide energy services and reduce GHG emissions.emissions.

• Evaluation of the costs for COEvaluation of the costs for CO22 emissions abatement through emissions abatement through

different energy efficient policies and measures. different energy efficient policies and measures.

Recommendation Recommendation

Page 52: Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation           in the Northeast Asia Region

Thank you very muchThank you very much