Mega trends in Retail Banking

3. International RISE Workshop (Jun 15, 2012)

Frank Schwab

http://www.rise-research.org/?p=438 http://www.imacor.eu

Source: Berlin Institute for Population and Development

Development of Age Structure in Germany

Development of Age Structure in United States

Source: US Bureau of Census

1940 2000 2040

Development of Age Structure in China

Source: US Census Bureau, International Data Base (2007)

Reverse mortgage

Reverse mortgage

Borrower older than 62 years

Borrower must occupy the property as their principal residence

No minimum income or credit requirements

No payments are required on the mortgage

Not subject to income tax payment

Maximum lending limit of $625,000.00

Payment is taken as line of credit, lump sum, or monthly payments

R E V E R S E

L O A N

Trend = General tendency or direction

"There is no reason

anyone would want

a computer

in their home.“

Ken Olson,

president, chairman and founder of

Digital Equipment Corp., 1977

"Stocks have

reached what looks

like a permanently

high plateau.“

Irving Fisher,

Professor of Economics,

Yale University, 1929

Dow Jones Industrial Average (1900 to Present)

Source: StockCharts.com

It is difficult to make predictions,

especially about the future

Sir Winston Leonard Spencer-Churchill

Knowledge Society The Rise of BRIC

Female Shift

Change of Demographics

Globalisation

Information Technology

Climate change

Mobility

Environmental Awareness

Urbanisation

Internet

Individualisation

By Juni 2012 European Banks need additional 106 Billion Euro Tier 1 Core Capital

30

5.1

1.3

4.1

2.9

14.7

8.8

Source: European Banking Authority EBA, October 2011

in Billion Euro

26.1 7.8

1.4

3.6

Increase of Cost Pressure

European Banks cut jobs

-500

-700

-900 -2,750

-2,350

-3,500 -3,500

-30,000

-15,000

-2,000 -2,000

-3,000

November 2011

6.000

7.000

8.000

9.000

10.000

11.000

12.000

13.000

14.000

15.000

16.000

1990 2011 2000

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

4.500

5.000

COMMERZBANK

Integration of Dresdner Bank becomes more expensive ...

... IT drives total integration costs from 2.0 to 2.5 Billion Euro ...

Withholding tax

Several 100.000 bank customers need to wait a couple of month to finalize their tax statements. The reason: Some banks failed to change their IT systems.

000100 IDENTIFICATION DIVISION. 000200 PROGRAM-ID. HELLOWORLD. 000300 000400* 000500 ENVIRONMENT DIVISION. 000600 CONFIGURATION SECTION. 000700 SOURCE-COMPUTER. RM-COBOL. 000800 OBJECT-COMPUTER. RM-COBOL. 000900 001000 DATA DIVISION. 001100 FILE SECTION. 001200 100000 PROCEDURE DIVISION. 100100 100200 MAIN-LOGIC SECTION. 100300 BEGIN. 100400 DISPLAY " " LINE 1 POSITION 1 ERASE EOS. 100500 DISPLAY "Hello world!" LINE 15 POSITION 10. 100600 STOP RUN. 100700 MAIN-LOGIC-EXIT. 100800 EXIT.

"Hello world!"

// C++ Hello World

#include <iostream>

int main()

{ std::cout << "Hello, world!\n";

}

// WebService Hello World

http://localhost/helloworld

Project, Application and Organisation Silos

IBM Mainframe

Sun Server

Intel blade

Tandem

Thin clients

Fat clients

AIX Server Server Farm

NOS öffnen ► Kunde suchen

NOS-Übersicht ► Partner / Adressen ► Anzeigen / Ändern ► Bestätigung ► Änderung der Telefonnummer? ► bestätigen / Ändern ► Ausdruck bestätigen ►zurück zur Übersicht

NOS-Übersicht ► Produkt / Ändern ► Einlagen / Termingeldprolongation ► Daten ändern ► bestätigen ► zurück zur Übersicht

Einmeldung in KIM ► Starten von KIM ► Anmeldung ► Kunden suchen ► neuen Eintrag wählen ► Daten einpflegen ► Abschluss anlegen ► Daten eingeben ► bestätigen ► zurück zur Übersicht

  Customer approaches service desk   Customer informs the bank about address change   Advisor notifies a due “time deposit” in the customer’s portfolio

37 Clicks  

2011 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015

662 M

4.03 B

Source: Cisco, 2012

Number of internet capable mobile devices

72% Watching TV

Playing Video Games

Listen to music

Reading newspapers

Reading books

Internet

Smartphones are used always and everywhere

Sources:  The  Mobile  Movement  Study,  Google/Ipsos  OTX  MediaCT,  Apr  2011  Base:  Smartphone  Users  (5013)  Q.  In  general,  which  of  the  following  media-­‐related  acOviOes  do  you  do  while  also  using  the  Internet  on  your  smartphone?  

0 new friends in 5 days

86 new friends in 5 days

8 new friends in 1 minute

Wants to co-create products

Expects better user experience

Inform themselves

online

Trusts in advice of peers in

online forums

Uses social media to

communicate

Buys online

The New

Customer

For Banks?

For IT Provider?

.

Text based

Static

Lack of visual experience

Highly visual

Bold photos

Dynamic content

Modern design

Human

Technology

Business

Design Thinking

Experience

Distribu(on   Middle  Office   Back  Office  

Requirements

Design

Traditional Waterfall Model

Implementation

Test

Maintenance

Service Creation

observe analyze prototype ideate market

Surface Banking

Natural Banking