Air pollution and globalisation

Øystein HovNorwegian Meteorological Institute

Environmental Prediction into the Next DecadeTechnical WMO conferenceIncheon, Republic of Korea17 November 2009

Megacity, Air quality and Climate: Observations and multi-scale Modelling

Atmospheric composition analysis and forecasting

Environmental impact incl

health

Regional and urbanAir pollution analysis

And prediction

Global modelling And data

assimilation

Satellite and In-situ observations

Scale bridging

Air quality issues– Air quality and health, – acidification, – eutrophication, – UV - enhancement, – surface ozone, – visibility impairment, – ecosystems exposed to toxic substances, – climate change - greenhouse gases and PM/CDNC– climate services – downscaling to high resolution– Emissions - estimation, validation, compliance

Per-capita NOx emissions1940-2030

2030

1940

North America1970

2000

2000

Europe1960

2030

2000

Russia

East Asia

South Asia0

25

50

75

100

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000

Per-capita income ($/capita), PPP

kg N

Ox/

ca

pit

aThe US and Europe is ”greying”

IPCC AR4 WG1 ch7 p 535

Biogeochemical cyclesS

N

CO2, VOC, CO, CH4

PM

Globalisation:

Local, regional, global cycles; S, N, VOC, PMare cycled locally/regionallybut with globalimplications for atmosphericcomposition and climate

BC

Claire Granier, CNRS

Globalisation of economies and emissions

IPCC AR4 WG1 ch7

Lelieveld et al., 2004

SO2

emissions 10,00 MtS

NOx

emissions 5,92 MtN

NH3

emissions 5,08 MtN

S dep8,88 MtS

89%

Oxidised N deposition5,10 MtN

86%

Reduced N deposition4,99 MtN

98%

Emissions and removal over Europe 2000

S and N

EMEP Report 1/2003

S and N emissions in Europe are deposited inside Europe

Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months] (IIASA)

Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5, average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

2000 2010 2020

0

3

6

9

12

15

Aus

tria

Bel

gium

Den

mar

k

Fin

land

Fra

nce

Ger

man

y

Gre

ece

Irel

and

Italy

Luxe

mbo

urg

Net

herla

nds

Por

tuga

l

Spa

in

Sw

eden UK

Tot

al E

U-1

5

Cze

ch R

ep.

Est

onia

Hun

gary

Latv

ia

Lith

uani

a

Mal

ta

Pol

and

Slo

vaki

a

Slo

veni

a

Tot

al N

MS

Tot

al E

U-2

5

2000 2010 2020

Long range transport of air pollution – very long range transport

Anthropogenic sulfur emissions in Europe – from “black” to “grey”

Has this reduction affected temperatures over Scandinavia?

If so, to what extent?Is this a coincidence, or actual relationship???

From HC Hansson, ITM, SU

[Title][Lecturer], [Date]

N = food; energy = N

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1850 1900 1950 2000

Year

Worl

d p

op

ula

tion

an

d

Ag

ricu

ltu

ral su

rface

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Fert

iliz

ers

an

d N

OxWorld population milions

Agricul. surface milions haFertilizer TgrNOx emissions

Carl Bosch Fritz Haber

Changes in NO2 (from “grey” to “black”)

• Excellent agreement between SCIAMACHY and GOME-2 measurements• Good agreement also with OMI in spite of time difference of measurements

=> if the same retrieval is used, satellites provide a very consistent picture

A. Richter, A. Hilboll, M. Vrekoussis, F. Wittrock, W. von Hoyningen-Huene, J. Yoon, O. Schneising, M. Buchwitz, M. Reuter, J. HeymannInstitute of Environmental Physics (IUP),University of Bremen FB1, Germany

Changes in SO2

• SO2 columns show upward trend since 1996• Accelerating increase from 2001• Sharp decrease in 2008 / 2009

Nov. 08volcanic

A. Richter, A. Hilboll, M. Vrekoussis, F. Wittrock, W. von Hoyningen-Huene, J. Yoon, O. Schneising, M. Buchwitz, M. Reuter, J. HeymannInstitute of Environmental Physics (IUP),University of Bremen FB1, Germany

Global anthropogenic NOx emission scenarios 2000-2100

0

50

100

150

200

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Mill

ion

ton

s N

Ox

Europe Former Soviet UnionNorth America AsiaRest of world Deforestation, savannah burning, agricultural wasteOriginal IPCC SRES B2 World total

OriginalSRES B2

IIASA‘currentlegislation’(based on B2socioeconomics)

Courtesy Markus Amann, IIASA

SRES A2

IIASA CLE

IIASA MFR

IIASA CLE 2050(+Climate Change)

ACCENT Photocomp runsRoyal Society runs(+Climate Change: T- and PAR-change influence on isoprene and lightning NOx emissions)

NOx in RCP8.5

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2000

2005

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Tg

NO

2

Forest burning

Grassland burning

Agriculture (Animals, Rice, & Soil)

Ag waste burning on fields

Residential and Commercial

Industry (combustion & processing)

Waste (landfills, wastewater, non-energyincineration)Solvents

Power Plants, Energy Conversion, Extraction, andDistributionAviation

International Shipping

Surface Transportation

• Air pollution abatement strategies turn cities and regions from ”black” to ”grey” globally in particular outside of the tropics

• Even though fossil fuel consumption in cities, regions and globally increase as do the CO2 emissions, the air pollution precursor emissions decline (SO2, NOx, VOC, PPM)

• A global change from ”black” and ”white” to ”grey” everywhere in terms of air pollution.

• Climate change unabated

Thank you for the attention

Environmental impacts of air pollutionGAINS estimates for 2000

PM Eutrophication Ozone

Acid, forests Acid, lakes Acid, semi-nat. ecos.

The greying of Europe

CO2 emissions GtC/a

IPCC AR4 Summary for policymakersClimate change feedback on air pollution in the future

Model result:In Northern mid-latitudes, 35-65% of present-day surface O3 originates from anthropogenic NOx, CH4, CO and NMVOCs

Assumes no change in biomass burning or soil NOx between 1750 and presentAverage of 5 model calculations STOCHEM-HadAM3 (Edinburgh), STOCHEM-HadGEM (UKMO), UMCAM (Cambridge), TM4 (KNMI), FR56C (O Wild)

The Greying of Europe. Tropospheric Trace Gases Observable by Satellite

Nitrogen Dioxide:

(requires separation from stratosphere)

Formaldehyde

Carbon Monoxide

Jack Fishman, NASA, ESA-ESTEC presentation from www

Projected changes inJJA surface O3 forthree 2030 scenarios

ACCENT models ensemble mean JJA surface O3 changes2000-2030 underthree scenarios:IIASA CLEIIASA MFRSRES A2

Dentener et al., 2006

IIASA CLE

IIASA MFR

SRES A2

Mean of 20

models

25

Claire Granier, CNRS

SO2 emissions

EMEP MSCW 2009

[Title][Lecturer], [Date]

Remaining problem areas in 2020Light blue = no risk

Forests – acid dep. Semi-natural – acid dep. Freshwater – acid dep.

Health - PM Health+vegetation - ozone Vegetation – N dep.

IIASA,Amann

Co-bene-fits of cont-rol of ozone pre-cursor emis-sions

Environmental problem

NOx control

VOC control

CH4 control

Combined control

Human health

NO2 urban Large Negligible Negligible Large

O3 urban Medium Medium Small Medium

O3 rural Medium Medium Medium Large

PM Medium Small Negligible Medium

Biodiversity

N deposition Medium Negligible Negligible Medium

O3 Small Small Small Small

Acidification and Eutrophication

N deposition Medium Negligible Negligible Medium

O3 Negligible Negligible Negligible Negligible

Visibility

PM Medium Small Negligible Medium

O3 Small Small Small Small

Climate change

O3 Medium Negligible Medium Medium

PM direct Small Negligible Negligible Small

PM indirect (cloud) Small Negligible Negligible Small

Carbon sequestration

N deposition Medium Negligible Negligible Medium

O3 Medium Medium Medium Medium