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MEGATRENDS FREM MOD 2030Lasse Jonasson, direktør ved Institut for Fremtidsforskning
(Source: Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies)
AMERICAN LIFESTYLE MAGAZINE 1950 Imagining how it is to live in the year 2000
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
The “Expert Problem“
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
“The more expert—or at least
the more educated— a
person is, the less likely that
person is to see a solution
when it is not within the
framework in which he or she
was taught to think.”
Herman KahnFuturist & Military Strategist
Rand Corp. & Hudson Institute
“In 50 years, every street in London will be buried under nine feet of manure”
- Times of London, 1894
Avoid blind forecast – development is rarely linear!
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
From Megatrends and Scenarios to Strategy
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Fremtiden opstår som summen af forskelligartede drivkræfter
EnablersTurners & blockers
Driver
Driver
Driver
Outcome
Outcome
Outcome
FR
ICT
ION
Time
”I am not an economist, but I do believe we are growing.” (George W. Bush, Former President of the United States, 2008)
Why wishful thinking is rarely enough.
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
From Megatrends and Scenarios to Strategy
Enstrukturerettilgang tilfremtiden
FREMTIDSFORSKNING.
Det meste af hvad vi har
brug for at vide for at tage
gode beslutninger i dag, er
uden for vores
forståelsesramme – vi ved
ikke hvad vi ikke ved.
Vores viden handler om
fortiden, men alle vores
beslutninger handler om
fremtiden.
Hvad vi ikke ved, vi ikke ved
Hvad vi ikke ved, vi ved
Hvad vi ved, vi ved
Hvad vi ved, vi ikke ved
Viden Uvidenhed
Uvidenhed
Viden
Hvad der er at vide
Hva
dvi
fors
tår
Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Technology Development
The application of knowledge or science to commerce or
industrial processes. Both the innovation and diffusion of
technologies.
Knowledge Society
Increasingly educated populations and growing
economic value of knowledge where skills,
information, and data constitute primary
economic assets.
MEGATRENDS
Megatrends are major pathways of development, global in scope, and have a
lifetime of at least 10-15 years.
While megatrends are expected trajectories, do not expect the development to occur
linearly.
Acceleration & ComplexityShortening business, innovation, and product
life-cycles with greater industry convergence.
Polarisation
Growing gap between extremes, such as
top and bottom market segments, at the
expense of the middle segment.
IndividualisationIncreasing desire for personalized products
and services that directly conform to the needs
and interests of any particular user or
business.
ImmaterialisationChanges in our perceptions and our
values that includes a greater focus on
experience and personal transformation.
Network SocietyA modern society and operating environment where
networks are shaping social interactions and
organizational structures.
Demographic DevelopmentMeasurable changes in demography covering distribution and size in
human population – including urbanization, ageing, ethnicity & religion and
family composition.
Economic Growth
Overall increase in productivity and subsequent
growth of wealth at a global scale.
GlobalisationThe process of interaction and integration among
the people, culture, companies, industries and
governments of different nations.
Sustainability &
Climate Change
A growing focus on the interconnectedness of
product life-cycles and the consequences of
our production-distribution-consumption
practices on our planet.
Focus on HealthGlobal orientation towards health and well-being,
transcending all aspects of public, private, personal
and professional lives, and moving from treatment to
prevention.
CommercialisationIncreasing areas in society, the public sector
and aspects of our everyday lives becoming
commercialized and commodified.
Democratisation
A process of transformation in which equality, access, and
transparency are improved by accountability,
decentralization, empowerment and openness.Page 8
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