megatrends and antitrendshow the extreme future might look like

frederic de meyer founderinstitute for future insightsfrederic@i4fi.com www.i4fi.comwww.fredericdemeyer.com

What this presentation is about

• No trend will grow exponentially indefinitely … for most trends we investigate at the Institute for Future Insights, we can imagine (or actually see) ‘antitrends’ emerge. How the future will turn out at the end will depend on the dynamics between trends and antitrends (and on black swans, of course).

• This presentation is a thought experiment to see what would happen if either trends or antitrends would become predominant. This is a ‘black and white’ story, the ultimate ‘truth’ will obviously lie somewhere in between….

• This is a neutral investigation and does not intend at formulating any judgment !

globalization localization

The world will become one single market without boundaries

Main drivers:• connectivity• cheap labor and products• trading blocks

An increasing portion of our consumption will originate from our direct environment

Main drivers:• protectionism• global warming, climate change• cost of transport (oil)

urbanization back to the country

Virtually all humankind will live in urban areas

Main drivers:• opportunities• access to education, health• communities

Increasing amount of people will choose to live away from cities

Main drivers:• health• connectivity (distant working)

new forms of migration

…will prove unfounded

New technologies will counter global warming effects

Main drivers:• genetic engineering• social entrepreneurship• increasing young population (as % of total population) increases growth potential

Global warming will instigate massive new migration

Main drivers:• famine, desertification extreme weather conditions• talent gap and aging population will make developed countries attract new migrants

scarcity of natural resources

people will learn to live with less

Humanity will keep on consuming scarce natural resources until they run dry

Main drivers:• rise of middle class in emerging markets• globalization

Humanity will learn to balance consumption and availability of natural resources

Main drivers:• scarcity of natural resources• sustainability becomes major business concern• green technologies

geographic mobilitywork and learn at

home

GenY will massively move to where the (economic) action is

Main drivers:• decline of developed economies• long-lasting crises• multicultural world

Work and learning will be totally location-independent

Main drivers:• technological advancements• virtual corporations• microtasking, crowdsourcing, open innovation

genY = new paradigmgenY ~

(babyboomers)^(x)

GenY will bring a completely new set of values to work and society

Main drivers:• self awareness (‘me’ generation)• ethically conscious, sensible to sustainability • bring own technology to workspace

GenY will revive some of the traditional values of (grand)parents

Main drivers:• aversion of complexity• social ‘not-working’• back to human touch

customization simplification

Every product made will eventually be tailor-made

Main drivers:• power of consumers• genY self-awareness• production sophistication

Consumers will return to ‘one size fits all’ products

Main drivers:• aversion of complexity• benefits do not match the cost

ever more connectedopting out becomes

fashionable

Virtually all people and things are connected to a central grid

Main drivers:• digital divide• imperative to make a living• social existence

People will retract from connected life in search of the ‘real’ experience

Main drivers:• simplicity• traditionalists (back to ancestors’ values)

robotization and automation

hands and crafts revival

Virtually all human (professional) activity will be automated or performed by robots

Main drivers:• efficiency gains• technological advancements• artificial intelligence

Traditional work will be cool and very much sought-after

Main drivers:• increased risk (due to increased dependency on tech)• personal touch / creativity

market state state control

Private companies will increasingly take over public responsibility

Main drivers:• public debt• globalization• social entrepreneurship

Government will increasingly take over (troubled) private activities

Main drivers:• crises• anti-globalism, anti-capitalism

website www.i4fi.comblog www.fredericdemeyer.commail frederic@i4fi.comPhone +32 478 68 13 08

for useful long-term planning tools: http://www.i4fi.com/useful_tools.html

Discover our services…

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Are you prepared to make the maximum out of long-term trends?

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“Frederic offers a unique insight of how global changes translate into new business opportunities. This book is an essential tool for any future-oriented manager or entrepreneur and anyone involved in innovation strategies” Philippe De Ridder, co-founder, Board of Innovation

“Designing and implementing a good strategy is quite a challenge. In an increasingly complex world, it is becoming increasingly difficult to recognize the core from the noise. This book on megatrends will help you do this. It will give you the necessary insights to focus on the themes that are crucial to the future of your company. A must read!” Jeroen De Flander, co-founder, The Performance Factory, author of Strategy Execution Heroes

“This excellent book is a comprehensive overview of the major trends and also offers a methodology to better assess the future reality and master its consequences. The author provides an essential guide for any strategy exercise” Peter Corijn, Vice-President, Procter & Gamble