Livestock 28 March 2013 Thomas Weaver

Presentation structure

• Livestock context in livelihoods

• Methodology of

assessment • Baseline

– Identification of systems – Locations – Tolerances

• Vulnerability assessment

• Adaptation Strategies • Conclusions

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Livelihood linkages

Livestock Systems

+ Manure + Draught (land preparation, marketing) + Pest control - Run off

+/- Feed (grain, forages, crop residues, fallow grazing, Agro-industrial byproducts) - Mycotoxins - Mechanisation

+ Feed (protein supplements) + Waste management (production and processing)

+ Feed (production and processing waste) - Run off

+/- Manure - Disease - Destructive grazing/browsing - Shifting cultivation - Run off

+/- Feed (forages, grazing) + Traditional animal health measures

Cropping Systems

Natural Systems/Protected

Areas

Fisheries

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Socio-economic factors affecting livestock

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Livelihoods, poverty and vulnerability and food security

• Increasing consumption • Price signals/setting power • Commercialisation of

production • Safety and quality

assurance

Access to land for grazing and forage cultivation, land tenure

Livestock policy environment

• Local trade patterns, crossborder trade, regional and international competition

• Commodity prices

Demographic changes

LIVESTOCK BASELINE

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System selection considerations

Rationale for selection of systems: Contribution to: • LMB livestock numbers (total, LU, number of

households raising, stock densities) • Local/national economies • Livelihoods and food security • Projected consumption and production • Global genetic diversity (indigenous breeds; wild

species)

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Large ruminants (bovins) • Cattle and buffaloes: smallholder extensive

(cattle/buffalo ‘keeping’) Pigs • Small to medium commercial • Smallholder low-input

Poultry • Scavenging chicken • Small commercial chicken (broiler, layer) • Field running layer ducks

Identified Systems

Cattle Buffalo

Bovine distribution

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Pigs Chickens

Monogastric distribution

• Bovines, pigs and poultry are ubiquitous basin-wide, in varying production systems

• Small and medium commercial units are – Likely to increase in number and production volume – Competition from exporters to increase – Generally located in low lying areas

• Smallholder systems – Numerically dominant, in terms of farms and stock numbers – High proportion of poor and vulnerable groups among low-input producers

• Smallholders typically operate diversified, mixed farming and livelihood systems

• Stock density – High per agricultural land/population in remote locations, important for

poverty and vulnerability – Lower per population area in low lying areas

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Results of the baseline

Livestock system tolerances

• Temperature: Higher than livestock thermoneutral zone = feed intake, growth – Animal health risks: pathogen viability/ proliferation, vectors,

fomites, shifting disease patterns

• Rainfall: – Animal health: pathogen viability/proliferation, vectors, fomites

• Extreme events: – Direct losses – Indirect impacts: feed availability disease transmission; markets

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LMB indigenous breeds

• Important genetic resources • Potential advantages in climate change

stressed systems Examples: • Pigs: Mong Cai, Ban, Moo Chid • Poultry: Ri, Ac, Dong Cao, Luong Phuong, Thai fighting cock

Wild species

• Ruminants – Banteng (Mondulkiri) – Gaur – Saola – Kouprey (?) – Eld’s Deer (Mondulkiri)

• Wild pigs (Sus scrofa) • Wild poultry

(elements of, and affected by, wider farming systems)

Key issues for livestock systems to consider in the face of climate changes

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Baseline summary

Nutrition

Markets

Animal Health

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

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System

• Identification • Location • Tolerances

Threat

• Climate change threats

• Interpretation for livestock systems

Impact

• Exposure to threat

• Sensitivity to threat

Adaptive capacity

• Internal • External

Vulnerability Adaptation strategies

• Identification of vulnerable systems

• Reducing exposure / sensitivity and/or increasing adaptive capacity

Process

Baseline Vulnerability assessment Adaptation strategies

Adaptive capacity

Adaptive capacity: internal (biological) and external (e.g. management practices, accessibility/quality of services, policy environment).

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Kien Giang: example of vulnerability assessment process

Small commercial pig

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Threat identification and interpretation Threat identification: Temp. increase

Interpretation of threat:

3C increase in Tmax average with highs predicted to reach 42C Increase average max daily T in dry season to above 30C

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Impact level

• Exposure: Significant increases in temperature

• Sensitivity: Improved breeds less resilient, low margins heightened stress levels, higher costs of production

• Impact level: Reduced margins/competitiveness: increased costs of production

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Adaptation capacity and vulnerability level

• Adaptation capacity: Internal capacity of breeds is relatively low, but higher than purebreds.

External capacity limited by availability and quality of services and available capital to invest in small landless operations.

Vulnerability level: 21

Livestock systems vulnerability

Impact Adaptive capacity Vulnerability

Smallholder cattle/buffalo

Low Low Medium

Dairy/large commercial

Very high High High

Small commercial pig

High Medium High

Smallholder low input pig

Low Low Medium

Small commercial chicken

Very high Low Very high

Scavenging chicken

Low Low Medium

Field running layer duck

Very low Low Low 22

Commercial

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Higher stress systems: Various scales Wealthier households Higher vulnerability to increase T: increased costs of production Higher vulnerability to increased disease risk, and responses due to investment

Low input, low productivity systems: Poorer households Low vulnerability to T increase Higher vulnerability to increased disease risk, loss of coping mechanism

Pigs

Low input

Low input systems: Generally poorer households Lower vulnerability to T increase Part of broad livelihood portfolio, often associated with vulnerable groups

Small commercial

Higher stress systems: Relatively wealthier households, higher investment Higher vulnerability to increase T: increased costs of production

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Chicken

Low input

Low input systems

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Low stress systems: poorer households Seasonal low nutritional levels, reducing value, increasing disease risk. In very high T periods reduced ability to work, negative effects on reproduction

Bovines

Wild species vulnerability

Impact Adaptive capacity Vulnerability

Banteng (esp. Mondul Kiri)

High Very low Very high*

Eld’s Deer (esp. Mondul Kiri)

High Very low Very high*

Sus Scrofa Low Very low High

Wild Poultry Medium Very low High

*Assuming greater human and domestic stock incursion into habitats disease risks, hunting etc

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ADAPTATION STRATEGIES

Hotspots 27

Guiding priorities

• Nutritional levels • Disease risk • Housing • Production planning and

offtake • Access to markets

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Closely interrelated, a multifaceted approach will be required Prioritization and phasing requires assessment in the local context

Increase internal adaptive capacity

• Reduce undernourishment by increasing the quality and quantity of feed production, storage and the nutritional balance of diets. – Improve use of current resources e.g.

crop residues, wild forages – Increase forage cultivation – Technology transfer e.g. seed,

cultivation practices, preservation

• Reduce grazing pressure on protected areas, reducing contact and risk of disease/hunting

Animal Nutrition

29 Key systems: smallholder bovines, low input pigs Key hotspots: Mondulkiri, Khammouan

Disease risk reduction

Increase adaptive capacity (internal and external) • Increase internal resistance to disease

– Increase nutritional status and body condition – Increase use of vaccinations

• Reduce disease challenges

– Improve biosecurity

• EcoHealth/OneHealth approaches – Animal health in relation to social, environmental

and human health considerations

• Key systems: All systems • Key hotspots: Kien Giang, Chiang Rai

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Housing

Reduce exposure of sensitive systems

• Improve housing location and design to

maximise natural ventilating effects

• Key systems: small commercial pig and poultry

• Key hotspots: Kien Giang, Chiang Rai

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Production planning and offtake

Reduce exposure and sensitivity, increase internal adaptive capacity • Improve production planning

– Reproduction management in breeder herds/flocks e.g. improve recognition of oestrus, reduce inbreeding, consider early weaning.

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• Increase offtake rates, where beneficial: – Controlled destocking/reducing stock density to reduce pressure on

stock, land and/or nucleus herd/flock – Flood and drought prone areas will benefit most

• Key systems: low input cattle, pig and poultry systems • Key hotspots: Gia Lai, Mondulkiri, Khammouan

Access to markets

• Increase access to input and output markets: to reduce input costs (costs) and increase prices received (incomes) i.e. increasing profits.

• Key systems: Livestock

producers in remote areas • Key hotspots: Mondulkiri,

Khammouan, Gia Lai

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Increase adaptive capacity, reduce sensitivity

CONCLUDING STATEMENTS

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• Low-input systems ‘local’ breeds: greater internal adaptive capacity to climate change but lower external adaptive capacity.

– Climate change will exacerbate nutritional problems reducing value and increasing disease risk in many areas

• Small/medium ‘commercial’ systems raising higher performance breeds under greater stress: lower internal adaptive capacity but typically greater external capacity to adapt to climate changes.

– Temperature increases will increase costs of production

• Climate change will alter disease risks for all livestock systems; in concert with other developments disease risk is likely to increase.

• Wild species in the LMB most threatened by changes in bovine production practices, increases in grazing of protected areas will increase the risk of disease transmission and the threat of hunting

Summary conclusions

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Basin Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for Livestock: Improve animal nutrition among

smallholder low input systems, particularly bovines

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Nutrition

Markets

Animal Health

Reduce disease risks for all livestock systems by increasing disease resilience and minimising disease challenges

Increase smallholder access to

and information on input, service and product markets

Priorities

THANK YOU