MENA INFRASTRUCTURE

GROWING SECTORS -

TRENDS & PROSPECTS

MEA Infrastructure &

Property Development

MENA Infrastructure Market Highlights

Transport Sector – Regional Railway Drive

Renewables – Solar & Wind – Pilot Projects

Urbanization Euphoria! – Affordable Housing

PPP Projects Highlights - Picking Up Momentum

Egypt

West Bank & Gaza

Lebanon

Syria

Qatar

UAE

Oman

Yemen

Saudi Arabia

Jordan

Iraq

Kuwait

Bahrain

MENA Infrastructure Glance • It‟s forecasted that GCC GDP to reach around US$ 2 trillion and a total population of around

53 million in the year 2020 A.D.

• There are some considerable challenges that MENA countries need to overcome in order to

move the infrastructure agenda forward.

• Urban congestion is growing and therefore increasing transaction costs for businesses or

commuting times for workers. It is estimated that the total economic and social cost of

congestion is about 5 percent of GDP.

• Investments of more than US$ 200 Billion already allocated to the development of transport

systems, with the rail networks and metro projects reaching US$ 100 Billion.

• The installed generation capacity of the electricity sector is estimated to be 20 percent below

the aggregate demand for electricity across countries in MENA.

• Subsidized electricity & water tariffs induces wasteful use of electricity & water therefore

increasing pressures for expansion of electricity generation capacity. Energy & Water subsidies

cost the region the equivalent of 8-10 percent of its GDP, whereas reducing these subsidies

could raise the region GDP by 3 - 4 percent.

• The quality and reliability of Infrastructure services are a real challenge which constrains

competitiveness, regional economic activity and growth prospects. Poor historical Public

services performance is generally observed in the region.

• Good demand drivers exist for PPP alternatives with the availability of attractive investment

alternatives like pension fund and insurance companies diversification into infrastructure.

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MENA Infrastructure Investment Forecast • Private investments in infrastructure in MENA have grown significantly since 1994, but at a

lower rate than other world regions.

• MENA countries need to create 40 million new jobs in the next ten years to meet the fast

growing labor force.

• This will require sustaining the economic growth at around 7 percent per year in the next ten

years which cannot be achieved without significant investments in infrastructure.

• The annual volume of infrastructure projects financed in MENA is estimated to have grown

from US$25 billion in 2007 to US$27 billion in 2008,before sharply declining by June 2009 to

US$6 billion due the global financial crisis (Investments in PPP in the Middle East and North

Africa almost tripled between 2000 and 2007)

• Middle Income Countries in MENA need to invest the equivalent of 9.2 percent of their yearly

GDP, in order to sustain their economic growth prospects. This represents a total investment

effort between US$75 to 100 billion a year, of which 33 percent is marked for the

maintenance of the existing stock of infrastructure.

• The Arab world invests about $60 billion a year in infrastructure, but to sustain current growth

rates, it needs about $100 billion annually.

• To meet this $40 billion gap, a smart mix of public sector engagement in coordination with

financing and expertise from the private sector is essential.

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Common Transport Policies Objectives

• Integrate land use with transport policy

• Adopt Consistent legislation and regulations

• Support green sustainable transport, improve air quality, reduce Noise

• Increase public transport options and access, reduce severance

• Safeguard public safety and transport security.

• Improve transport efficiency and encourage competition (Value for money)

• Support businesses and create employment opportunities

• Implement cross-border integration & interoperability

• Connect People & move Goods for economic development and regeneration

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ME Rail 2013 - Terrapinn Report

North GCC Cross Border Railway Linkages

GCC Railway Timeline & Costs • Feasibility study endorsed by GCC 30th Summit on December 2009. Project is economically and

financially feasible.

• GCC Member States (MS) are well advanced in developing the Detailed Engineering Designs

expected to be completed by 2012. (Kuwait to Muscat with a proposed link between Saudi Arabia

and Bahrain while extension to Yemen is scheduled for stage II expansion).

• Construction is expected to commence by GCC Member States (MS) about 2013/2014 and

completed by about 2017.

• Total length estimated 2177 km single track mix use – passenger and freight transport.

• Total capital cost estimated:

• US$ 15.5 billion (passenger 200 km / hr. – Diesel Traction)

• US$ 25.6 billion ( high speed passenger 350 km / hr. – Electric Traction)

• GCC MS formed a Steering Committee - SG Transport Department PMU - to oversee the

Implementation of the GCC Railway (focal point). A “GCC Railway Authority” is expected to be

formed.

• GCC MS Governments pay infrastructure capital costs based on railway length in each MS (Capital

& Rolling Stock Cost Sharing).

• Concession of Operations & Maintenance to Private Sector

• Agreement with World Bank for continued Advisory Service.

• Cost of Extension National Lines (member state beneficiary pays).

Saudi Arabia National Railway Map

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KSA Existing & Underway Railways

KSA – National Railways & Capital

• Riyadh Metro ($8bn) - AR Riyadh Development Authority • 6 main routes, 175km long, 132 stations, 6 lines

• Four consortia leaders prequalified to design and build lines 1, 2 and 3 - Vinci Construction, Bombardier, FCC Construction and Strabag.

• North South Railway Line ($3.2bn) - Saudi Railway Company • 2,750km (1,418km passenger line from Riyadh to Al-Haditha and

1,486km mineral line from Al-Zubirah to Ras Az Zwar).

• The freight line has been servicing for over a year now. Passenger capabilities within three years.

• Land bridge ($7bn) - Saudi Railways Organization • 945km, the line will run from Jeddah Port to Riyadh and connect to

the Riyadh-Dammam line and a new route will link Jubail to Dammam.

• PMC Contract won by Flour Corporation early 2013.Main tenders expected early 2014.

KSA – Jeddah, Makka Railways • Haramain High-Speed Rail ($13.7bn) - Saudi Railways

Organization

• 450km (372km Jeddah-Medina Section and 72km Jeddah-Makka section)

• The regions first high-speed rail line, operations beginning in 2014. • The line will have the capacity to carry over 30,000 people a day

• Jeddah Metro ($9.4bn) - Saudi Arabia Ministry of Transport/Jeddah Municipality • 3 lines (Green, Orange and Blue), 108km long, 46 stations. • Line 1 will run from Old Makka Road to downtown. Line 2 will run

along Prince Majed Street from King Abdul Aziz International Airport, while Line 3 will run along Palestine Road.

• Preliminary design work is nearing completion, bid throughout Q2 / Q3 2013.

Bahrain Roads & Railway Projects North Manama

Outer Ring Road BD 100M £ 173.2M

USD 265.9M

N-Road BD 98M

£ 169.8M USD 260.6M

Sh. Khalifa bin Salman Highway

Interchange 2 BD 12M £ 20.7M

USD 31.9M

Sh. Jaber Al Sabah Highway BD 80M £ 138.6M USD 212.7M

Access Road to Northern Town

BD 74M £ 128.2M

USD 196.8M

Al Fateh Highway BD 51M £ 88.3M USD 135.6M

Widening & Extension of Sh. Zaid Highway

BD 28M £ 48.5M

USD 74.4M

Kingdom of Bahrain

• Saudi Bahrain Rail Link ($4.2bn) Gulf Cooperation Council

• 90km, Run parallel to the King Fahd Causeway, part of the

planned GCC network

• Route feasibility study is underway by World Bank , should be concluded by 2014.

• Bahrain Rapid Transport Network ($7.9bn) Ministry of Transport

• 140km, 4-phased, Phase I includes LRT line and Tramway.

• Project in the study phase and the main contract is expected to be issued in June 2015.

Kuwait • Kuwait City Metropolitan Rapid Transit ($7bn),

Partnerships Technical Bureau

• Four railway lines, 171km long, 72 stations, 65% aboveground, 35% underground.

• PTB has invited contractors to express an interest to develop rolling stock and systems for the project.

• Kuwait National Rail Network ($10bn), Partnerships Technical Bureau

• 505km, first phase will be a 245km line connecting Umm Qasr in

Iraq to Qasr on the Saudi Arabia border

Oman • National Railway -

($15.5bn) Ministry of Transport and Communications/National Railway Company

• 1,061km long, Four

divisions, 6km tunnels, 17km viaducts, 15km wadi bridges.

• Currently tendering for the preliminary consultant design contract and the project management consultancy packages

UAE & Qatar National Railway Network

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UAE – Abu Dhabi • UAE National Network ($11bn) Etihad Rail

• 1200km long, 10 tunnels, three stages, the first stage will be operational by the end of 2013 and phase 2 by the end of 2014.

• Stage II is currently being tendered; Package A - 137km line from Ruwais to Ghuwaifat, Package B - 190km line from Liwa Junction to Al Ain, Package C - 186km line from Al Ain to Jebel Ali.

• Includes branch to Khalifa Port, Package D – railway integration and systems, Package F - 78km line from Industrial City Abu Dhabi to Mussafah

• Abu Dhabi Metro ($7bn) Abu Dhabi Department of Transport • 131km, metro and light rail railway. Network will connect the main

commercial areas of the city. • The main contract tenders expected in 2014 and the first stage

completed by 2017.

• Abu Dhabi Light Rail ($7.8bn) Abu Dhabi Department of Transport • 340km light rail 3 lines system, connecting major business and

residential areas and key venues like the airport. • Main tenders are expected in 2013, due to be completed 2017

UAE – Dubai

• Dubai Metro ($807m - extensions – new lines$?? bn) Roads and Transport Authority, Dubai

• 12km extension to red line, 10km extension to green line, 3 new

lines (Blue, Gold and Purple)

• Will extend the metro to 421km long with 197 stations.

• The new lines will be completed by 2030

• Al Sufouh Tramway ($1.8bn) Roads and Transport Authority, Dubai

• 14.6km, 17 stations, over 52% of the overall project completed.

• Completion target of Q4 2014.

Qatar National & Transient Transport

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Qatar • Doha metro ($?? bn) Qatar Railway Company

• 92 Stations, 231km long, total underground 100km, total elevated 101km, total at grade 30km.

• Four metro lines (Red Line, Green Line, Gold Line and Blue Line), will connect the Doha suburbs with city center and key business districts.

• Phase 1 targeted completion in 2019, phase 2 due to for completion in 2026.

• West Bay People Mover ($450m) Qatar Railway Company • 9km, 1 line, 15 stations, a feeder line for the west bay area. • Not decided whether this line will be above or underground.

• Light Rail Transit (LRT) ($1.2bn) Qatar Railway Company • 48km, 4km, 38 stations, 1 depot, will connect districts within Lusail city to

Doha Metro. • The Project in progress under design and build contract and features four

key tram lines with both underground and over ground.

• Qatar Regional Passenger ($?? bn) Railway Qatar Railway Company • 400km, 7 stations, 5 freight yards, 5 freight depots, 1 intermodal yard, Qatar’s long distance passenger line.

• Currently tendering civil design consultant’s contract, the project will be built in three phases.

Iran

• Tehran Metro Expansion ($19bn), Tehran Urban & Suburban Railway Company (TUSRC) - Phase II - 102km, 68 stations.

• Iran-Armenia Railway ($2bn), Ministry of Roads & Urban Development - 540km (60km on Iranian soil and 480km in Armenia).

• Qom Monorail ($1.8bn) Qom Urban Railway Organization - 18.5km, 20 stations.

GCC Railway Estimated Expenditures 26

• Rail transport has comparative advantage over road transport for bulky not

time-sensitive goods (Cement, fertilizers, grains, oil products, ores) and

container goods, especially when transported on point-to-point routes.

• Comparative advantage is assessed in terms of reliability, safety, freight

traceability, speed, punctuality, frequency, safety, and comfort for passengers.

• There is a real environmental advantage brought about by energy efficiency of

diesel or electric traction. Railroad‟s carbon footprint could be respectively 65%

and 85% lower than that for highway

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To Bring a Shift to Green Transportation

• Appropriate regulations like clean fuel quality standards are essential to green

transport that need to be socially and politically acceptable.

• Transportation demand management practices to reduce vehicle trips by

increasing vehicle occupancy, reducing vehicle distances travelled and

institutionalize public transit as essential.

MENA Solar Potential

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MENA – EU Cross-Border Collaboration Potential

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The MENA countries have fantastic cross-border collaboration opportunities within and with EU that could provide a multiplier effect across the region.

Desertec - Clean Power from the Desert

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http://www.solarmiddleeast.ae/spl/locator/

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MENA Wind Potential

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Annual Wind Speed (m/s) 80m above MSL

RE MENA Activity

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The Solar Levant and GCC Congress, Amman 2011

Solar Projects in GCC/MENA

• Saudi Arabia is building the world’s largest solar power desalination plant at Ras Al Khair to provide 10 million m3 per year which is the third desalination solar plant in Saudi Arabia.

• Abu Dhabi launched its Masdar Sustainable City initiative, which will house 50,000 people and will be completely reliant on renewable sources for its power needs, is paving the way for carbon–free cities in the region. Shams 1 , 100 MW solar plant, is due to be completed by the end of 2013 and will cost an estimated US$600 million. Abu Dhabi Company for Future Energy, has already connected a 10 MW PV plant to the grid.

• DEWA, UAE recently announced the tender for aUS$3.3 billion Mohammed bin Rashid Solar Park, with a view to establishing 10MW of installed capacity by 2013, and eventually 1GW (1,000MW) by 2030.

• Kuwait has completed a technical feasibility study for the construction of a solar thermal power plant with a capacity of 280 MW, including 60 MW solar component. Tender for the solar energy plant to provide 5% of its energy requirement through such technology by 2020 was released in 2013.

• Egypt started operation in 2011 of its first grid-connected large-scale Integrated Solar Combined Cycle (ISCC) of 140 MW with 20 MW solar share. Egypt also intends to build two new CSP projects with 50 MW each, as well as a 20 MW large-scale grid connected PV plant in south Egypt by the year 2017.

• Jordan is intending to build Shams Ma’an PV project, a 100 MW PV plant which can be expanded to 200 MW.

• Yemen has launched rural electrification projects based on PV systems in cooperation with Germany. Ka'awa Village PV Electrification Project as an example.

• Bahrain the Ministry of Energy is developing pilot solar project.

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RE Wind Projects in GCC/MENA

• Saudi Arabia began the preparation of feasibility studies for the establishment of two wind farms, the first with capacity ranging from 20 to 40 MW, and the other with a capacity of 10 MW.

• Abu Dhabi , Sir Baniyas Island wind project, with a capacity to produce 30MW, is also expected to be completed in 2013. Also Masdar as considering plans for a 100MW wind farm near Saudi border.

• Egypt, it is expected that 12 per cent of the total electric energy generated by the year 2020 will be from large-scale renewable wind energy projects. West of red sea area has good winds.

• Jordan’s plans include the establishment of wind farms with a capacity of 600 MW until 2020.

• Yemen has a 60 MW wind farm in the development phase.

• Bahrain The Oil Ministry tendered a pilot combined project of 3 megawatts wind power and 2 megawatts of solar. (Bahrain gets about 83 percent of its energy from natural gas and the rest from oil)

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• Demand for housing is increasing due to the presence of a large number of expatriate workers and inflow of people from villages and cities, apart from population growth

• Population growth and lower family sizes push greater demand for housing. Nearly 40% of population is younger than 15.

• The preference for most residents is villa living rather than apartment living, however apartment living is more affordable. The cost of villas in Urban major cities is out of reach for the common citizen. Nearly 80% of households cannot afford to own units of greater than 200 sqm.

• Housing is considered a basic right to be provided by government to those citizens who cannot afford it.

• Affordability improves if traditional subsidies are available (zero interest loans, land grants, government rent to buy, free infrastructure).

• Government need to take an active role in delivering affordable housing, the private sector cannot be relied upon to perform this function as largest developers deliver roughly 1000 new units each year.

• Private sector see the mid to low housing sector as low margins business and as such some developers show little interest in this sector with major costs to develop the primary infrastructure requirements (waste water, water, electricity and district cooling) to enable the development of new communities.

Housing Sector Characteristics in MENA

Opportunities in MENA Social Housing - Media

• Iraq ? - The Iraqi government in June 2011 approved plans to build 3.5 million new homes within the

next ten years to meet the housing crisis that it is facing. A $70 billion reconstruction package

announced included the allocation of $25bn investment for housing.

• Libya ?? - The (earlier) Libyan government was in the process of launching its first development

program to invest across the infrastructure of the Country including Housing. The housing program

was to develop over 300,000 new houses at a value of $35 billion.

• Kuwait-The Government is pushing ahead with a number of affordable housing schemes using the

Build Operate Transfer (PPP) procurement models.

• Bahrain - Bahrain Government signed in early 2012 a record BD208m ($550m) with a local

Developer to build more than 4,000 affordable homes. Bahrain forecasts the need for about

350,000 new residential units to be added to existing stock by 2030 with $1.1bn to be spent

every year up to 2020, and then $242m annually up to 2030.

• Saudi Arabia needs 1.65 million new homes by 2015 .Total commitment is $130bn on social

projects with $67bn allocated for 500,000 new homes and $400 billion for infrastructure projects.

KSA Construction Housing Pipeline Projects valued at US$ 29 billion for 2012.

• Saudi Arabia nationwide accommodation needs have been estimated at more than five million

new housing units by 2020. The plan says Saudi Arabia will require SR 2.4 trillion (US $640

billion) of investment in real estate over the next 20 years.

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Top Trends for GCC Real Estate in 2012 - 2020

• Increased focus on realism is likely to be the trend influencing the GCC real estate sector in

the years ahead, resulting in more attention to the needs of the customer, more emphasis on

financial returns and bottom line performance. Increase in sales activity at the lower end of

the market is observed.

• More awareness of the commercial advantages associated with green buildings and

sustainable practices.

• Developers are turning to government-led housing initiatives in order to compensate for a

decline in public spending and a decrease in demand for new projects. Examples include;

• Diyar Al Muharraq - Bahrain's, is launching „crafted affordable housing program‟ to

address the Kingdom‟s growing need for social housing.

• Kuwait Oil Company is making more than 350 housing plots are made available for new

projects in Kuwait‟s Al Qairawan, part of Kuwait City expansion plan.

• Al Falah - UAE launched a $2.5bn, 1,200ha housing development for UAE nationals

near Abu Dhabi, with 4,857 villas and an expected population of 60,000.

• Jeddah needs almost one million housing units over the next 20 years,

according to a strategic plan prepared by the Jeddah municipality. Currently

there is a shortage of 283,000 housing units, including 80,000 in the low-income group.

• The plan calls for immediately building 151,600 units for accommodating

people living in underdeveloped areas, and 51,500 units to meet the demand

of population growth.

• An International real estate firm was awarded a SR1.1bn contract to building

affordable housing over 1million m2.The specifications call for service life

span of 100 years, concrete based products offering ductile properties

(seismic resistant), 4 hour fire rating at 1200 degrees Celsius and highest

thermal properties

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Example; Jeddah – KSA Housing Program

Example; Bahrain Housing Program

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GCC PPP Activity

• With huge government surpluses, securing finance is not the overriding factor behind the PPP push in the GCC countries, rather, it is the goal to deliver projects more efficiently, grant the private sector a greater economic role and assist with the diversification of the local economy.

• Since 2010; over 50 PPP contracts were signed in the GCC region. These projects require investments of more than USD 60 billion.

• As of 2012, the UAE had signed off an estimated USD20 billion worth of PPPs, with some USD7 billion accounted for by Abu Dhabi's utility sector.

• Kuwait government rolled out in mid-2010 through Partnerships Technical Bureau (PTB) – Kuwait PPP unit – A PPP program comprising 32 projects and requiring investment of USD28 billion in various sectors - Transportation, real estate, healthcare, utility projects and recycling factories under B.O.T system with the largest being the estimated USD10 billion Kuwait national rail scheme.

• Bahrain concluded in 2011, Al Muharaq STP, a 330 Mil USD BOT Project

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Potential PPP Pipeline Projects – GCC - 2012

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GCC Railway Network - O & M PPP

KSA High Speed Railway PPP

KSA - Jeddah Airport PPP

KSA - Mecca Mass Rail Transit PPP

KSA - Medina Medina International Airport PPP

Kuwait Metro Rail PPP

Kuwait Recycling factories PPP / B.O.T

Kuwait STP PPP / B.O.T

Oman National Railway Network PPP

Qatar - Doha Metro PPP

UAE Union Railway PPP

UAE - Abu Dhabi Mafraq-Ghweifat Highway PPP

UAE - Abu Dhabi Airport PPP

UAE - Dubai Water Taxi PPP

PPP Pipeline Projects – Rest of MENA – 2011/12

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Egypt Rod el-Farag Highway PPP

Egypt Egyptian Refining Company

Egypt Suez 650 MW Steam Thermal Plant

Egypt Taxi Replacement Scheme (Gas fired)

Egypt - Alexandria University Hospital PPP

Egypt - Alexandria Hospital PPP

Egypt - Cairo Wastewater treatment plant PPP

Egypt - Cairo-Alexandria Cairo-Alexandria Freeway PPP

Jordan Rail Transit / Railway PPP

Jordan - Amman Light Rail PPP

Jordan - Amman Ring Road Highway PPP

Morocco Railway Line

Morocco - Casablanca Drinking Water Supply -Rabat

Tunisia Hasdrubal Oil & Gas Field

Tunisia Road Project VI

Loay Ghazaleh, MBA, BSc. Civil Eng.; loay.ghz@gmail.com

Advisor, Undersecretary Office,

Ministry of Works - Bahrain