meng thesis-a deterministic model for predicting air pollution concentration

8/9/2019 MENG Thesis-A deterministic model for predicting air pollution concentration

1/97

FEWEAN\BEKV NG M FEVE_BJKJTVJD BNFEA

GN_ MJ_ \NAAUVMKVT DNKDEKV_MVJNK

OZ

M_EHOETNAM OEKIMBJK NAMFM\NO+EKH (D`E* (BJKKM*! \HFB (DMAMOM_*

B+EKH.TEEV.7


2/97

FEDAM_MVJNK

J èreoz fedamre v`mv v`jt vètjt jt mk eggnrv bmfe oz be mkf vn vè oetv ng bz

cknxaefhe! jv `mt knv oeek tuobjvvef jk mkz gnrb gnr mknvèr fehree nr fj|anbm mv

mkz Ukjwertjvz nr jktvjvuvjnk+ Jkgnrbmvjnk epvrmdvef grnb |uoajtèf mkf uk|uoajtèf

bmverjmat `mt oeek fuaz mdcknxaefhef jk vè vepv+

""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """""""""""""""""""""""""""M_EHOETNAM! O+NAMFM\N FMVE

?


3/97

DE_VJGJDMVJNK

V`jt jt vn dervjgz v`mv v`jt fjttervmvjnk ekvjvaef Fewean|bekv ng m Feverbjkjtvjd

Bnfea gnr Mjr \naauvmkvt Dnkdekvrmvjnk xmt ukfervmcek oz M_EHOETNAM! O+

NAMFM\N jk v`e D`ebjdma Ekhjkeerjkh Fe|mrvbekv! Td`nna ng Ekhjkeerjkh mkf

Ekhjkeerjkh Ved`knanhz! Geferma Ukjwertjvz ng Ved`knanhz! Bjkkm! Kjher Tvmve mkf

xmt m||rnwef gnr jvt dnkvrjouvjnk vn cknxaefhe9

""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""

F_ I+N+NFJHU_E FMVE(Tu|erwjtnr*

""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""F_+ G+N+ MOE_UMHOM FMVE

hE k hD ` e b

F e |n g@ e m f

"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""(Epverkma Epmbjker* FMVE

4


4/97

""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""

\_NG+ I+M+ MOMAMCM FMVE (Femk! \ntvhrmfumve Td`nna*

FEFJDMVJNK

Vn vè Anrf Hnf Mabjh`vz! Tnurde ng maa cknxaefhe! xjtfnb mkf ukfertvmkfjkh+

Vn vè oaettef bebnrz ng bz femr gmvèr! Amve Eafer Intùm Namvukij Mrehoetnam

(=:46"=:::*+

6


5/97

MDCKNXAEFHEBEKVT

Bz èmrvgeav m||redjmvjnk hn vn vè bmkz t|edjma |en|ae x`n `mwe èa|ef orjkh v`jt

retemrd` xnrc jkvn epjtvekde+ X`jae J vmce guaa ret|nktjojajvz gnr mkz ng jvt jb|ergedvjnk!

J rednhkjte v`mv jvt berjvt mkf gjkfjkht `mwe oeek omtef jk amrhe |mrv nk dnkvrjouvjnkt

mkf jkt|jrmvjnk ng v`nte mrnukf be+

T|edjma v`mkct hn vn vè Anrf Hnf Mabjh`vz x`n `mt hrmkvef be maa v`mv J keef vn

`mwe gnr epjtvekde+ Maa Xjtfnb mkf Cknxaefhe jt @jt+ @e jt Nbkjtdjekde mkf

Nbkjtdjekv+

T|edjma v`mkct hn vn bz tu|erwjtnr! F_+ I+ N+ Nfjhure+ Znur |mvjekde!

ekdnurmhebekv! drjvjdjtb! fefjdmvjnk mkf tu||nrv `mwe èa|ef be ep|anre mkf `mt

oeek m tnurde ng jkt|jrmvjnk gnr be+

T|edjma v`mkct hn vn Fr+ C+ _+ Nkjgmfe gnr `jt mttjtvmkde mkf gmvèraz mfwjde

v`rnuh`nuv bz ukferhrmfumve fmzt mkf gnr v`jt bmtvert |rnhrmbbe+ J dèrjt` `jt

tu||nrv+

T|edjma v`mkct hn vn bz oeanwef bnvèr D`rjtvjmkm Mrehoetnam mkf tjtvert Vebjvn|e!

Nauxmcebj! Nauxmgukbjce mkf Nauxmvnzntj gnr vèjr ekdnurmhebekv mkf tu||nrv+ Jv

xmt znur uk}uetvjnkjkh oeajeg jk bz mojajvjet v`mv jkt|jref be v`rnuh` vjbe ng fnuov+

5


6/97

T|edjma v`mkct hn vn Oekefjke Mc|u gnr znur ukteagjt` fefjdmvjnk mkf

dnb|mkjnkt`j|+ Znur grjekft`j| mkf tu||nrv |rnwjfef vè |ergedv ekwjrnkbekv gnr be

jk tvrjwjkh vn bmce v`jt xnrc m remajvz+

T|edjma v`mkct hn vn maa vè mdmfebjd! knk"mdmfebjd mkf ved`kjdma tvmgg ng vè

Dèbjdma Ekhjkeerjkh Fe|mrvbekv! Geferma Ukjwertjvz ng Ved`knanhz! Bjkkm! Kjher

Tvmve+ Znur vrmjkjkh! |uoajdmvjnk mkf mttjtvmkde `mwe èa|ef jk bmcjkh v`jt xnrc tee

vè ajh`v ng vè fmz+

T|edjma v`mkct hn vn vè Mfeaeze Gmbjaz gnr vèjr tu||nrv mkf bemkjkhgua dnkvrjouvjnk

et|edjmaaz jk vè ute ng vèjr dnb|uver tztveb gnr xrjvjkh vè dnb|uver |rnhrmb mkf

vz|etevvjkh v`jt xnrc+ Mkf t|edjmaaz vn Nauxmfuktjk Mfeaeze! znu `mwe |rnwef vn oe

m gmjv`gua dnb|mkjnk+ J mb jkfeef hrmvegua+

T|edjma v`mkct hn vn Ekhjkeert Tmcm Mofuacmreeb! Gmvmj Ijbn`! Cnwn Mofuatmambj!

Namaecmk Mfekjzj mkf nvèrt ng Geferma ukjwertjvz ng ved`knanhz! Bjkkm! gnr znur

dnkgjfekde mkf bemkjkhgua dnkvrjouvjnkt+ Znu `mwe bmfe vè |rndett ng v`jt xnrc mk

motnauve inz+ J geea `nknuref vn `mwe `mf tud` m vmaekvef hrnu| ng |rngettjnkmat vn

xnrc xjv`+

T|edjma v`mkct hn vn \mtvnrt Fmwjf Namfj|n mkf Bjd`mea Maoerv! vè Dùrd`

Dnbbjvvee mkf vè ekvjre beboert ng D`rjtv M|ntvnajd Dùrd` (Ekhajt` Mtteboaz*!

7


7/97

Cmfukm Fjtvrjdv! Cmfukm+ Vèjr |rmzert mkf hekernut eggnrvt `mwe èa|ef tutvmjk

be+ Vn Ornvèr Oeaan gnr vè ute ng `jt dnb|uver+

T|edjma v`mkct hn vn Bmaamb @mttmk _mkj mkf gmbjaz+ \mtvnr Mfefjxurm mkf gmbjaz!

Tjtvert Xukbj Omanhuk! Gukbj Nhukvumte! Wjdvnrjm Nkzebmd`j mkf Ornvèr Hoekhm

Tnonxmae+ Vèjr dnb|mkjnkt`j| `mt bmfe bz ajge wmtvaz bnre guagjaajkh+

T|edjma v`mkct vn bz dnurte bmvet Bmkmtte` Muvm! Bu`mbbmf Majzu! Mofua

Mfmbu! Mkv nkz Ncerece! Ojt`n| Grefrjc! mkf Mkxma Mkxmr+ Znur èa|gua mkf

tu||nrvjwe geefomdc jk vè emraz tvmhet ng vè dnurte jt m||redjmvef+

8


8/97

MOTV_MDV

M feverbjkjtvjd bnfea gnr |refjdvjkh mjr |naauvjnk dnkdekvrmvjnk xmt ferjwef+ Wmrjnut

etvmoajtèf |`ztjdma amxt xere utef jk vè bnfea fewean|bekv+

Vè |retekde ng hmtenut |naauvmkvt jk vè mvbnt|ère dmutet fjte}ujajorjm jk vè

|rewmjajkh bevenrnanhjdma dnkfjvjnk! x`jd` jt jk mddnrfmkde xjv` vè epjtvjkh hmt amx+

V`jt |rniedv jt mjbef mv fewean|jkh m feverbjkjtvjd bnfea gnr |refjdvjkh hmtenut

|naauvmkvt dnkdekvrmvjnk+

\mrmbevert tud` mt mvbnt|èrjd |retture! mvbnt|èrjd veb|ermvure! xjkf t|eef

mkf wm|nur |retture xere novmjkef grnb Kjherjmk Mjrt|mde Bmkmhebekv Muv`nrjvz!

Bjkkm Mjr|nrv! Bjkkm! mkf xere utef mt jk|uv x`jae vè nuv|uv xjaa jkdaufe vè

hmtenut |naauvmkvt dnkdekvrmvjnk+ Maa vète xere |uv jk m dnb|uver |rnhrmb gnrbmv

vn tjbuamve vè epvekv ng |naauvjnk+

Ep|erjbekvma fmvm grnb retemrd` xnrct dmrrjef nuv jk Bjkkm mkf Mouim xere

novmjkef mkf dnb|mref xjv` vè tjbuamvef retuavt+ Vè ute ng }umajvmvjwe mkmazvjdma

ved`kj}uet vn feverbjke hmtenut |naauvmkvt dnkdekvrmvjnkt v`nuh` `jhàz mddurmve

mkf eggedvjwe `mt kn remfz m||ajdmvjnk jk fewean|jkh dnukvrjet! oedmute ng vè dntv

jb|ajdmvjnk mkf amdc ng kedettmrz bmk|nxer+

Vè |retekde ng hmtenut |naauvmkvt jk vè mvbnt|ère dmutet fjte}ujajorjm jk vè

|rewmjajkh bevenrnanhjdma dnkfjvjnk! x`jd` jt jk mddnrfmkde xjv` vè epjtvjkh hmt amx+

wjjj


9/97

V`jt |rniedv jt mjbef mv fewean|jkh m feverbjkjtvjd bnfea gnr |refjdvjkh hmtenut

|naauvmkvt dnkdekvrmvjnk+ Vè fewean|ef bnfea jt |retekvef mt

2 ?4ep|

CV

\u

D

\NAAUVMKV

\NAAUVMKV

Vè tjbuamvjnk retuavt gnr dnkdekvrmvjnk ng mjr |naauvmkvt mkf vè fmjaz mwermhe ng

vète dnkdekvrmvjnkt xere gnukf vn oe dnb|mrmoae xjv` vè ep|erjbekvma retuavt

novmjkef grnb vè wmrjnut mhekdjet+

Vèregnre! vè |rn|ntef bnfea dmk terwe mt m vnna gnr |refjdvjkh mjr |naauvmkvt

dnkdekvrmvjnk jk |rniedvt v`mv re}ujre vè nwermaa jb|mdv ng |naauvjnk+ Jv jt knv tujvmoae

jk dmte xère vè dnkdekvrmvjnk ng m |mrvjduamr |naauvmkv jt re}ujref

jp


10/97

VMOAE NG DNKVEKVT

Vjvae \mhe " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " j

Dervjgjdmvjnk " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " "jj

Fefjdmvjnk " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " jjj

Fedamrmvjnk " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " "jw

Mdcknxaefhbekv t " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " "w

Vmoae Ng Dnkvekvt " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " "wjj

Ajtv Ng Gjhuret Mkf Vmoaet " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " p

Motvrmdv " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " pj

D@M\VE_ NKE9 Jkvrnfudvjnk

=+= Omdchrnukf Jkgnrbmvjnk

=+? \naauvmkvt Mkf Vèjr Tnurdet Jk Bjkkm+

=+4 Iutvjgjdmvjnk

=+6 Mjbt Mkf Noiedvjwet

=+5 Tdn|e Mkf Ajbjvmvjnkt ng Vè Tvufz

D@M\VE_ VXN9 Ajvermvure _ewjex

?+= \naauvjnk

?+? Mvbnt|ère

?+?+= Andmvjnk Mkf Dm|mdjvz

?+?+? Dnb|ntjvjnk Ng Vè Mvbnt|ère

?+4 Mjr \naauvjnk

?+4+= Mjr \naauvmkvt

?+4+? Tnurdet Ng Mjr \naauvmkvt

p


11/97

?+4+4 Eggedvt Ng Mjr \naauvjnk

?+4+6 Nuvdnbe Ng Mjr \naauvmkvt Jk Vè Mvbnt|ère

?+6 Hekerma _eamvjnkt`j|t

?+6+= Hmt Amxt

?+6+? Vnvma \retture

?+6+4 Fjggutjwjvz

?+6+6 Wm|nur \retture

?+5 Bnfeajkh Mkf Tjbuamvjnk

?+5+= Feverbjkmvjnk ng Mjr \naauvmkvt dnkdekvrmvjnk oz ]umkvjvmvjwe

Mkmaztjt+

?+5+? Fefudvjnk

?+7 Mjr ]umajvz Bnfeat

?+7+= Onp Bnfeat

?+7+? \rn|nrvjnkma Bnfeat

?+7+4 Humttjmk Bnfeat

?+7+6 Dnktvrudvjnk ng Humttjmk Bnfeat

D@M\VE_ V@_EE9 Fewean|bekv ng m Feverbjkjtvjd Bnfea gnr Mjr \naauvmkvt

Dnkdekvrmvjnk

4+= Fetdrj|vjnk ng v e Tvufz Mrem

4+? Mttub|vjnkt gnr vè Bnfea

4+4 \mrmbevert gnr v e Bnfea

4+4+= Jfema Hmt Amx

4+4+? Fektjvz

pj


12/97

4+4+4 Vnvma \retture

4+4+6 Xjkf mkf Fjt|ertjnk

4+4+5 Fjggutjwjvz

4+4+7 Bmtt Vrmkt|nrv

4+6 Fewean|bekv ng v`e Bnfea E}umvjnkt+

4+5 Tjbuamvjnk \rndefure

4+5+= Tvmvebekv ng \rnoaeb

4+5+? Bmv ebmvjdma Fetdrj|vjnk

4+5+4 Mahnrjv`b Fewean|bekv

4+5+6 Dnb|uver Jb|aebekvmvjnk

D@M\VE_ GNU_9 Bevenrnanhjdma mkf Ep|erjbekvma Fmvm

6+= Bevenrnanhjdma Fmvm

6+? Ep|erjbekvma Fmvm

D@M\VE_ GJWE9 _etuavt! Fjtduttjnk ng _etuavt mkf Dnkdautjnk

_etuavt

5+? Fjtduttjnk ng _etuavt

5+4 Dnkdautjnk

_egerekdet

M||ekfjp

pjj


13/97

AJTV NG VMOAET

Vmoae ?+= Dnb|ntjvjnk ng Daemk! Frz Mjr+

Vmoae ?+? Hanoma Ebjttjnk gnrb Kmvurma mkf Mkv rn|nhekjd Tnurdet+

Vmoae ?+4 Bev`nft gnr mkmaztjkh Mjr \naauvmkvt+

Vmoae 6+= Bevenrnanhjdma Fmvm grnb Kjherjmk Mjrt|mde Bmkmhebekv Muv`nrjvz!

Bjkkm+

Vmoae 6+? Fmvm nk Ekwjrnkbekvma Bnkjvnrjkh ng tnbe Mjr \naauvmkvt mkf

\mrvjduamvet dnkdekvrmvjnk ng v`ree mremt xjv`jk Bjkkm Bukjdj|ma+

Vmoae 6+4 _etuavt ng vè Mjr ]umajvz Mttettbekv dmrrjef nuv jk tnbe teaedvef

Mremt jk Mouim+

Vmoae 5+= \naauvmkvt dnkdekvrmvjnkt utjkh vè ferjwef Bnfea+

Vmoae 5+? Bnkvàz Mwermhe ng \naauvmkv dnkdekvrmvjnk novmjkef utjkh vè Bnfea+

Vmoae 5+4 Bnkv az Mwermhe Dnb|uvef grnb Vmoae 6+4+

Vmoae 5+6 Fmjaz Mwermhe Dnb|uvef grnb Vmoae 6+?+


14/97

AJTV NG GJHU_ET+

Gjhure ?+= Onp Bnfea+

Gjhure 4+= Ganxd`mrv gnr v`e dnb|uver |rnhrmb+

=6


15/97

D@M\VE_ NKE

=+< JKV_NFUDVJNK

=+= OMDCH_NUKF

Vè }umajvz ng mjr mkf xmver jt bntv wjvma vn vè epjtvekde ng ajwjkh nrhmkjtbt nk emrv`+

Fet|jve vè moukfmkde ng vète kmvurma retnurdet jk vè xnraf mt m x`nae! mk

mamrbjkh |rn|nrvjnk ng vè xnraft |n|uamvjnk amdct mddett vn remtnkmoaz tmge mjr vn

oremvè mkf xmver vn frjkc+ V`jt jkdremtjkh feverjnrmvjnk jk mjr }umajvz mt m retuav ng

ednknbjd mkf ùbmk fewean|bekv mdvjwjvjet! |ntet terjnut v`remvt vn èmav` ng vè

ajwjkh nrhmkjtbt jk bmkz |mrvt ng vè xnraf+ V`jt jt jrnkjdma+ Ednknbjd fewean|bekv

`mt kubernut |ntjvjwe oekegjvt ouv jvt oz"|rnfudvt dnuaf oe fevrjbekvma+ Vèregnre! jk

nrfer vn ukfertvmkf vè ekwjrnkbekvma jb|mdv ng fewean|bekv mkf oevver vmrhev

ùbmk mkf ved`knanhjdma jkverwekvjnkt! xe butv ukfertvmkf mkf fewjte gukfmbekvma

dnkvrna bemturet ng |naauvjnk+ V`jt |rniedv jt nke tud` mvveb|v+

Mjr dnktjtvt bmjkaz ng kjvrnhek mkf npzhek! xjv` nvèr dnb|nkekvt (dmronk fjnpjfe!

mrhnk e+v+d* jk bjkuve }umkvjvjet+ @ubmk mdvjwjvjet tud` mt dnncjkh! out` ourkjkh!

dnboutvjnk ekhjket e+v+d! maxmzt retuav jk tnbe oz"|rnfudvt e+h+! dmronk bnknpjfe!

kjvrnhek npjfet! tua|ùr npjfet! e+v+d! oejkh ebjvvef jkvn vè mvbnt|ère+ \retekvaz

vè `jh` dnkdekvrmvjnkt ng vète oz"|rnfudvt nr |naauvmkvt `mwe retuavef hanomaaz jk m

kuboer ng jrrewertjoae fmbmhet jk vè edntztveb+ Vùt mjr |naauvjnk dmk oe fegjkef

jk m ornmf dnkvepv mt vè jkvrnfudvjnk jkvn vè ekwjrnkbekv ng xmtve! bmverjma! nr

ekerhz `mwjkh kn gurvèr wmaue! mt m retuav ng kmvurma mkf ùbmk mdvjwjvjet tud` mt vn

dmute m tvrett nr ukgmwnurmoae mavermvjnk ng jkfjwjfuma nrhmkjtb! m dnbbukjvz! nr mk

edntztveb (Bjaaer! =:85*+

=5


17/97

dekvrma mrem (|n|uamraz dmaaef Bnoja* xjv` anx fektjvz mv vè nuvtcjrv+ Fue vn jkdremtjkh

ednknbjd mdvjwjvjet mkf reamvjweaz |emdegua ekwjrnkbekv! vère jt m rebmrcmoae jkgaup

ng |en|ae jkvn vè djvz mkf vùt jkdremtef kuboer ng dmrt+

Tewerma tnurdet ng |naauvmkvt dmk oe jfekvjgjef jk Bjkkm+ Vète jkdaufe dmrt mkf

nvèr jkverkma"dnboutvjnk ekhjket nr hekermaaz! gnttja guea frjwek we`jdaet+ Vète

`mwe dnkvrjouvef vn hnnf tvmkfmrf ng ajwjkh ekinzef oz vè |n|uamde ouv vèjr

dnboutvjnk |rndettet `mwe retuavef jk vè |rnfudvjnk ng dmronk fjnpjfe! dmronk

bnknpjfe! d anrngaunrndmronk (DGD*! kjvrnhek npjfet v`mv mre cknxk mt vè

Hreek`nute Hmtet (H@H*+ Fnbetvjd dnncjkh mkf èmvjkh jt amrheaz dmrrjef nuv xjv`

gjrexnnf mkf cernteke tvnwet+ Vète matn |rnfude wmrjnut hmtet mt xeaa mt tnnv!

mkf gazjkh mt` v`mv mre ewekvumaaz fjtd`mrhef jkvn vè mvbnt|ère+ Vè mbnukv ng

|naauvmkvt ebjvvef oz out` ourkjkh! fednb|ntjvjnk ng mhrjduavurma xmtvet |er`m|t

bmz knv oe tjhkjgjdmkv! ouv jv dnkvrjouvet vn vè nwermaa dnkvmbjkmkv dnkdekvrmvjnk jk

vè mvbnt|ère+

=+4 IUTVJGJDMVJNK NG V@E TVUFZ

Vè ewer"jkdremtjkh rmvet ng jkfutvrjmajtmvjnk mkf uromkjtmvjnk xjv` vèjr mvvekfjkh

ekwjrnkbekvma dmambjvjet `mwe ornuh`v mvvekvjnk nk |naauvjnk bnkjvnrjkh mkf dnkvrna+

Kubernut retemrd` xnrc `mwe oeek ukfervmcek! vùt vère jt mfe}umve jkgnrbmvjnk

nk vè wmrjnut ekwjrnkbekvma |naauvmkvt! `nx vn jfekvjgz vèb! vèjr tnurdet mkf

ekwjrnkbekvma jb|mdv+ @nxewer vè bnkjvnrjkh mkf dnkvrna ng vète |naauvmkvt jt }ujve

ep|ektjwe+

=8


18/97

Tewerma aehjtamvjnkt `mwe oeek |mttef nk vè }umajvz ng mjr+ Vn ekgnrde vèb! vè

epvekv ng |naauvjnk butv oe }ujdcaz mkf nk vè t|nv mtdervmjkef+ Nke ng vè xmzt vn

ukfervmce v`jt jt vn bemture |rewmjajkh mvbnt|èrjd mkf bevenrnanhjdma |mrmbevert!

|rndett vète fmvm mkf dnbe nuv xjv` gmdvnrt v`mv dmk oe utef vn ewmaumve vè epvekv

ng |naauvjnk+

Kkmbfj (?


19/97

fewean|ef utjkh |mrmbevert grnb Bjkkm! ouv jv dmk tvjaa oe m||ajef vn nvèr andmvjnkt

mt ankh mt vè kedettmrz wmrjmoaet mre mddurmveaz bemturef+ Vè `jh` aewea

amkhumhe vn oe utef gnr vè dnb|uver |rnhrmbbjkh jt GN_V_MK+

=:


20/97

D@M\VE_ VXN

?+< AJVE_MVU_E _EWJEX

?+= \NAAUVJNK

Ajge jk mk edntztveb jt tu||nrvef oz jkverreamvjnkt`j|t oevxeek mbnkh vè

nrhmkjtbt+ V`jt jkverreamvjnkt`j| dmaaef gnnf xeo! jkfjdmvet vè nrhmkjtbt v`mv mre

tnurde ng gnnf gnr nvèr nrhmkjtbt+ Mk edntztveb jt bnre tvmoae xèk vè vz|et ng

nrhmkjtb jk jv mre fjwerte mkf vè gnnf xeo dnb|aep+ V`jt jt vè remtnk x`z vè

ednanhjtv t|emct ng |naauvjnk mt mkzv`jkh v`mv fedremtet fjwertjvz(Wetjajkf! =:8:*

mkf v`jt dremvet m aett tvmoae ednanhjdma tztveb+ \rnoaebt mrjte! `nxewer! xèk

tnbe |naauvmkvt (e+h+! èmv* dmk mdvumaaz jkdremte fjwertjvz+ Fue vn vète |rnoaebt!

vèregnre! vère `mwe oeek wmrjnut mvveb|vt oz tdjekvjtvt! dnbbjttjnkt! |rngettjnkma

nrhmkjymvjnkt! mkf nvèrt vn fegjke vè verb |naauvjnk/+ Vn hjwe bemkjkh vn vè xnrf

|naauvjnk! tnbe ng vè bntv xjfeaz utef nr bnre jbmhjkmvjwe mvveb|vt xjaa oe

bekvjnkef oeanx jk nrfer vn m||redjmve vè epvekv ng fmbmhe v`mv `mt mkf xjaa oe

fnke jg vè vrekf jt knv dèdcef mkf dnrredvef+

M bnre |rmdvjdma fegjkjvjnk bjh`v oe vè |retekde ng mkzv`jkh jk ukfetjrmoae amrhe

dnkdekvrmvjnkt! rednhkjyjkh v`mv tnbe |naauvjkh tuotvmkdet mre `mrbaett nr ewek

oekegjdjma jk tbmaa }umkvjvjet (@mrfz! =:85*+ M hnwerkbekv dnbbjttjnk! Dnbbjttjnk

gnr Daemk Mjr! omtef jvt ekvjre re|nrv nk vè |rebjte v`mv |naauvjnk jt mkzv`jkh

fjtd`mrhef jkvn xmver! mjr nr amkf/+ Vùt! m dnx jk m bemfnx xnuaf }umajgz! mt m

tnurde ng |naauvmkvt (Cmrfetvukder! =:8:*+

?


21/97

Oz fegjkjkh |naauvjnk mt mkzv`jkh fjtd`mrhef jkvn vè ekwjrnkbekv! vè |rnoaeb ng

fegjkjvjnk jt kemvaz tnawef! ouv vè ute ng v`jt fegjkjvjnk jk m |rmdvjdma tekte jt fjggjduav+

Gnr jktvmkde! jg m tvremb jt utef mt mk n|ek terwer! jv jt oekegjdjma! tn jv dmkknv oe

fjtvjkdvaz regerref vn mt oeek |naauvef+

Vè fegjkjvjnk |retekvef oz Bjaaer (=:85* jt bnre mhreemoae! v`mv |naauvjnk dmk oe

fegjkef jk m ornmf dnkvepv mt vè jkvrnfudvjnk jkvn vè ekwjrnkbekv ng xmtvet!

bmverjmat! nr ekerhz `mwjkh kn gurvèr wmaue! mt m retuav ng kmvurma mkf ùbmk mdvjwjvz

tn mt vn dmute m tvrett nr ukgmwnurmoae mavermvjnk ng mk jkfjwjfuma nrhmkjtb! m

dnbbukjvz! nr mk edntztveb+

Xjv` v`jt fegjkjvjnk! dànrjkmvef"`zfrndmronk |etvjdjfet dmk remfjaz oe damttjgjef mt

|naauvmkvt+ Tjbjamraz! gaunrndmronkt utef jk t|rmz dmkt! x`jd` jk maa |rnomojajvz

mfwerteaz mggedv vè nynke amzer |rnvedvjkh vè emrv` uavrmwjnaev rmfjmvjnkt! xnuaf oe m

|naauvmkv+

@nxewer jv jt jb|nrvmkv vn knve mt Wetjajkf (=:8:* |njkvef nuv v`mv kn fegjkjvjnk jt

|ergedv ouv kewervèaett! jv t`nuaf oe eb|`mtjyef v`mv |naauvjnk

jt dmutef oz |en|ae3

jt m xmtve (m retjfuma*3

dmk oe m bmverjma nr m gnrb ng ekerhz3

re|retekvt m antt ng wmaue (vn èmav`! edntztveb! evd*+

?=


22/97

?+? MVBNT\@E_E

?+?+= ANDMVJNK MKF DM\MDJVZ

Vn fjtdutt x`mv jv bemkv oz mjr jt |naauvef nr refudvjnk jk vè }umajvz ng mjr! jv jt

kedettmrz vn ukfertvmkf x`mv vè mvbnt|ère jt! jvt dnb|ntjvjnk mkf dm|mdjvz+ Vè

mvbnt|ère jt vè amzer ng mjr v`mv turrnukft vè emrv`+ Jv jt |rnomoaz =7< cjanbevert

v`jdc! ouv bnre v`mk `mag ng jvt vnvma xejh`v jt jk vè 7 cjanbevert iutv monwe vè

turgmde ng vè emrv`+ Vè emrv`t mvbnt|ère jt jb|nrvmkv vn verretvrjma ajge+ Jv jt

oeajewef vn `mwe fewean|ef jk jvt |retekv gnrb gnr tnbe 45< bjaajnk zemrt mhn xèk

epvektjwe wehevmvjnk dnwer nrjhjkmvef nk amkf+ Jvt |retekde |rnwjfet mk

jkfjt|ektmoae t`jeaf grnb `mrbgua rmfjmvjnk grnb vè tuk mkf jvt hmtenut dnkvekv

tutvmjkt vè |amkv mkf mkjbma ojnt|ère (Omrrz ev ma! =:873 Gmjv` ev ma! =:8?*+

Vè u||er |nrvjnk ng vè mvbnt|ère jt dmaaef vè tvrmvnt|ère! mkf vè anxer|nrvjnk! vè vrn|nt|ère+ Vè tvrmvnt|ère jt mk jtnvèrbma rehjnk ("7


23/97

fjnpjfe mkf Mrhnk (m||rnp+ Npzhek ?


24/97

injkef oz dmrt! t`j|t! mern|amket! `nutet mkf m `ntv ng jkfutvrjet mt |naauvert ng vè

mjr! mkf v`jt jt dmutjkh m anv ng xnrrz (Tdnrer! =:84*+

Omtjdmaaz! mjr |naauvjnk jt vè |retekde ng gnrejhk tuotvmkdet jk vè mjr (Gmjv` ev ma!

=:8?*+ V`jt fegjkjvjnk mffrettet nkaz gnrejhk tuotvmkdet! dmronk fjnpjfe! gnr

epmb|ae! jt knv gnrejhk vn vè mvbnt|ère mkf mt jv mddubuamvet! jv `mt fevrjbekvma

eggedv nk ajwjkh v`jkht mkf bmverjmat+ M gurvèr turwez ng vè mvveb|vt vn fegjke vè

verb mjr |naauvjnk jt hjwek oeanx+ Dmamdevn (=:8=* tvmvet v`mv mjr |naauvjnk dnktjtvt ng

|mrvjduamvet nr jb|urjvjet v`mv mre tut|ekfef jk nr dnkwezef oz m bnwjkh tvremb ng

hmt nr mjr+ V`jt |naauvmkv bmz epjtv jk aj}ujf gnrb (dnbbnkaz fetdrjoef mt bjtv*! mt

hmtenut gube! nr mt m tnajf |mrvjduamve bmvver jkdaufjkh futv+ @e dnktjferef mjr

|naauvmkvt nkaz grnb vè |mrvjduamve (tnajft* |njkv ng wjex3 knpjnut hmtet v`mv dmkknv

oe dnaaedvef bed`mkjdmaaz xere knv dnktjferef+

Teaa (=:0=* fegjkef mjr |naauvjnk mt vè mffjvjnk vn vè mvbnt|ère ng mkz bmverjma(t*

`mwjkh m feaeverjnut eggedv nk ajge+ M bnre t|edjgjd fegjkjvjnk ng mjr |naauvjnk `mt oeek

fewean|ef oz vè Ekhjkeerjkh Injkv Dnukdja (Ojt`n|! =:58*9 mjr |naauvjnk bemkt vè

|retekde jk vè nuvfnnr mvbnt|ère ng nke nr bnre dnkvmbjkmkvt! tud` mt futv!

gubet! hmt! bjtv! nfnur! tbnce! nr wm|nur! jk }umkvjvjet! d`mrmdverjtvjd mkf furmvjnk

tud` mt vn oe jkiurjnut vn ùbmk! |amkv! nr mkjbma ajge nr vn |rn|ervz! nr x`jd`

ukremtnkmoaz jkvergere xjv` vè dnbgnrvmoae ekinzbekv ng ajge mkf |rn|ervz+ Jv `mt

oeek noterwef v`mv jkfnnr ùbmk mdvjwjvjet mggedv mjr }umajvz vn m bud` hremver epvekv

v`mk nuv fnnrt! |mrvjduamraz jk tbmaa xnrc mremt (_mn! ?


25/97

Vè Xnraf @emav` Nrhmkjymvjnk (X@N* ng vè Ukjvef Kmvjnkt (UK* fegjkef mjr

|naauvjnk jk vè gnaanxjkh xmz9 mjr jt |naauvef xèk nke nr tewerma |naauvmkvt mre

|retekv jk vè mvbnt|ère mv tud` m dnkdekvrmvjnk mkf gnr tn ankh m vjbe v`mv vèz

mre `mrbgua vn bmk! mkjbmat! |amkv mkf bmverjma |rn|ervz! dmute `mrb nr refude xeaa"

oejkh nr fjtvuro m||redjmoaz jvt m||ajdmvjnk (Ormuer! =:0=*+

?+4+= MJ_ \NAAUVMKVT

Vè fewean|bekv ng ved`knanhz oz bmk jk m ojf vn emte amonur! bmce vrmwea gmtver

mkf dnkwekjekv! |rnfude bnre xjv` ajbjvef vjbe mkf t|mde! e+v+d! `mt retuavef jk

|rnfudvjnk ng wmrjnut xmtvet v`mv mre fub|ef nk vè emrv` turgmde! jk xmver mkf

ebjvvef jkvn vè mjr+ \naauvjnk rmve dnkvjkuet vn jkdremte gmtver v`mk vè |n|uamvjnk

hrnxv` rmve et|edjmaaz mt vè |en|ae `mwe oednbe |rnt|ernut+ Vn ajwe xe keef

ved`knanhz! mkf v`mv bemkt |naauvjnk-

Mk mjr }umajvz tvmkfmrf tmzt! Vè dnkdekvrmvjnk ng m |naauvmkv jk vè mvbnt|ère mvvè |njkv ng bemturebekv t`maa knv oe hremver v`mk tnbe t|edjgjef mbnukv+ V`jt

bemkt v`mv dervmjk eaebekvt ajce dmronk bnknpjfe mkf kjvrnhek npjfet mre

fmkhernut |naauvmkvt xèk |retekv jk mjr oeznkf m fegjkef dnkdekvrmvjnk+ Jv jt maxmzt

vè dnkdekvrmvjnk" vè fnte" v`mv bmcet m |naauvmkv (Tverk! =:8=*+Mjr |naauvmkvt mre

damttjgjef jkvn vxn dmvehnrjet9 |rjbmrz mkf tednkfmrz |naauvmkvt+ Vè fjtvjkdvjnk

oevxeek vè vxn |naauvmkv dmvehnrjet jt bmfe mddnrfjkh vn vè bmkker oz x`jd` vè

|naauvmkvt mre jkvrnfudef jkvn vè mvbnt|ère (Tmbueatnk! =:0


27/97

tua|ùr fjnpjfe mkf |mrvjduamvet+ Uktvmoae |naauvmkvt mre v`nte v`mv mdvjweaz

|mrvjdj|mve jk vè gnrbmvjnk ng tednkfmrz |naauvmkvt+ Vèz jkdaufe kjvrnhek npjfe!

kjvrnhek fjnpjfe! nynke mkf dervmjk `zfrndmronkt+

?+4+? TNU_DET NG MJ_ \NAAUVJNK

\naauvmkvt ng mjr mre |rnfudef jk tewerma xmzt mkf dnbe mre wmrjnut tnurdet+ Vère

mre tewerma damttjgjdmvjnkt ng vète tnurdet+ Tmbueatnk (=:0


28/97

VMOAE ?+? HANOMA EBJTTJNKT G_NB KMVU_MA MKF MKV@_N\NHEKJD

TUOTVMKDE \E_DEKVMHE NG EBJTTJNK MKF TNU_DETT.K MKKUMA HANOMA

EBJTTJNK (VNKT*

KMVU_MA TNU_DET MKV@_N\NHEKJD

TNU_DET

=+ Tua|`ur fjnpjfe! TN?

66 p =


29/97

ekwjrnkbekv jt ekfmkheref |refnbjkmkvaz oz vè gex |erdekv ng hanoma ebjttjnkt

grnb mkv`rn|nhekjd tnurdet+ Tjp bminr vz|et ng mkv`rn|nhekjd tnurdet `mwe oeek

jfekvjgjef+ Vèz mre9

Vrmkt|nrvmvjnk 9 bnvnr we`jdaet! rmja bnukvef we`jdaet! mern|amket mkf wetteat+

Fnbetvjd.dnbberdjma èmvjkh mkf |nxer hekermvjnk 9 xnnf! hmt "! nja"! mkf

dnma "gjref gurkmdet utef vn |rnfude èmv nr |nxer gnr jkfjwjfuma fxeaajkht!

dnbberdjma etvmoajt`bekvt! uvjajvjet! mkf jkfutvrz+

Bukjdj|ma mdvjwjvz 9 _egute fjt|ntma! aj}ujf xmtve fjt|ntma! rnmf mkf tvreev |amkv

n|ermvjnk! mkf guea"gjref dnboutvjnk |rndettet+

Mhrjduavurma mdvjwjvz 9 dnb|ntv bmkurjkh! jktedvjdjfma mkf |etvjdjfma futvjkh mkf

t|rmzjkh! ourkjkh ng wehevmvjnk mkf gnretv gjret+

Jkfutvrjma mkf |rndett ebjttjnk 9 Wekvjamvjnk |rnfudvt grnb andma ep`mutv

tztvebt! |rndett xmtve fjt|ntma oz dnboutvjnk |rndettet

Gmaanuv9 V`jt jt vè verb m||ajef vn rmfjnmdvjwe |naauvmkv jk bmtt mvbnt|ère

retuavjkh grnb vèrbnkudaemr ep|antjnk+

Jkfutvrjma guea ourkjkh mkf |rndett ebjttjnk (jkfutvrjma tnurdet* dnkvrjouvet monuv

?


30/97

mkf we`jdae vrj|t aekhv`t+ Vè tnurdet jkdaufe muvnbnojaet! vrudct! outet! mjrdrmgv!

t`j|t mkf rmjarnmf dmrt+

Tvmvjnkmrz ebjttjnk mre hekermvef mt vè retuav ng gukdvjnkt tud` mt fnbetvjd mkf

dnbberdjma èmvjkh! oz"|rnfudvt ng jkfutvrjma |rndettet v`mv mre wekvef vn vè mjr!

tnajf xmtve jkdjkermvjnk! |nxer |amkv ebjttjnk! mkf tbnce mkf nfnurt grnb jkfutvrjma

mdvjwjvjet+ Vè tnurdet jkdaufe eaedvrjd |nxer uvjajvz onjaert! dnbberdjma mkf fnbetvjd

onjaert mkf gurkmdet! regjkerjet mkf jkfutvrjma |rndettet+

Tnbe |naauvmkv tnurdet! `nxewer! mre m dnbojkmvjnk ng bnojae mkf tvmvjnkmrz

tnurdet! vèz mre regerref vn mt dnb|nukf tnurdet+ Vèz jkdaufe mjr|nrvt! mkf uromk

dnbbukjvjet+ M gjkma dmvehnrz jt vè jkfjredv tnurdet+ Vète mre |amkv! jktvmaamvjnkt nr

mdvjwjvjet v`mv `mwe m tjhkjgjdmkv mbnukv ng bnojae mdvjwjvz mttndjmvef xjv jvt

n|ermvjnk mkf ute+ Epmb|aet ng vète tnurdet mre rnmfxmzt! mjr|nrvt mkf |mrcjkh

gmdjajvjet+ \mrcjkh gmdjajvjet jkdaufe t`n||jkh dekvert! t|nrv dnb|aepet! amrhe

mbutebekvt gmdjajvjet! evd+

Mknvèr dmvehnrjymvjnk jkvrnfudef oz Ormuer ev ma (=:0=* jt omtef nk |naauvmkv

ebjvvef grnb tnurdet fegjkef oz vèjr (m* tjye (o* tvrekhv` mkf (d* t|edjet ng

|naauvmkvt+ Xjv` dervmjk tjb|ajgjdmvjnk! vè tnurdet ng |naauvmkvt ebjttjnk bmz oe

fjwjfef jkvn vxn hrnu|t9

j+ Jkfe|ekfekv tjkhae tnurdet (nr |njkv tnurdet*9 gmdvnrjet! regjkerjet e+v+d+

jj+ Gjeaft ng tnurdet (mrem tnurdet*9 dnncjkh gubet grnb retjfekvjma mremt+

?+4+4 EGGEDVT NG MJ_ \NAAUVJNK

4


31/97

Maa vè fegjkjvjnkt ng mjr |naauvjnk mhree xjv vè gmdv v`mv vè |naauvmkvt `mwe

feaeverjnut nr jkiurjnut eggedv nk ùbmk! |amkvt! mkf mkjbma ajge! mkf remtnkmoaz

jkvergere xjv` vè dnbgnrvmoae ekinzbekv ng ajge mkf |rn|ervz+ Ukgnrvukmveaz ewerzv`jkh

jk dnkvmdv xjv` vè mvbnt|ère jt ep|ntef vn vè |naauvmkvt dnkvmjkef jk vè mjr

|naauvmkvt+ Gnr jktvmkde! mjr jk uromk dnbbukjvjet bmz dnkvmjk bnre tua|ùr npjfet!

kjvrnhek npjfet! dmronk bnknpjfe! `zfrndmronkt! npjfmkvt! |mrvjduamvet mkf vnpjd

tuotvmkdet+ Vè dnbojkmvjnk ng |mrvjduamvet mkf.nr hmtet dmk retuav jk tzkerhjtvjd

eggedvt bmcjkh vè dnbojkmvjnk bnre fevrjbekvma+

Wmrjnut tvufjet `mwe oeek dmrrjef nuv vn feverbjke vè èmav` rjtct mttndjmvef xjv`

mjr |naauvjnk+ Vè retuavt wmrz ouv tnbe jb|nrvmkv gjkfjkht `mwe oeek dnktjtvef+ Gmjv`

ev ma (=:8?* hmwe gjwe bntv dnbbnk eggedvt ng mjr |naauvjnk mt9

j+ Wjtjojajvz refudvjnk!

jj+ Jrrjvmvjnk ng ùbmk tekte!

jj+ Ednknbjd fmbmhe vn |rn|ervz!

jjj+ Fmbmhe vn emav`! mkf

jw+ Tuotvmkvjwe d`mkhet jk v e ednanhz ng vè kmvurma ekwjrnkbekv+

Xnraf Fewean|bekv _e|nrv (=::?* jfekvjgjef tut|ekfef |mrvjduamve bmvver mt m bminr

v`remv vn ùbmk èmav + Vè |retekde ng tut|ekfef |mrvjduamvet jk vè jkfnnr

ekwjrnkbekv! x`jae knv nowjnut! matn mggedvt mjr }umajvz+ Jk vè fxeaajkht ng vè |nnr

|n|uamde jk bmkz dnukvrjet! vè dnbojkef eggedvt ng dnncjkh gjret! futvt! mkf

omdverjm `mwe dnkvjkuef vn v`remvek vèjr èmav` mkf tndjnednknbjd xeaa oejkh gmr

bnre terjnutaz v`mk xmt |rewjnutaz rednhkjtef+

4=


32/97

Mdjfjd hmtet tud` mt dmronk fjnpjfe! tua|ùr fjnpjfe e+v+d! fjttnawe jk rmjkxmver

frn|aevt vn gnrb mdjf rmjk+ Vè fe|ntjvjnkt ng v`jt mdjfjd tnauvjnk nk wmrjnut

bmverjmat tud` mt jrnk! dnkdreve e+v+d! aemf vn dnrrntjnk! rutv mkf erntjnk+ Vète

bmverjmat ante vèjr autvre! tvrekhv` mkf `mwe t`nrver ajge t|mk+ \mrvjduamve tevvae nk

vè aemwet ng |amkvt! oandcjkh vèjr tvnbmvm vùt jkvergere xjv vè bevmonajd

|rndettet ng vète |amkvt+

Nynke! m hmt moukfmkv jk vè tvrmvnt|ère `mt tuggeref terjnut fe|aevjnk fue vn

remdvjnk xjv` |naauvmkvt et|edjmaaz dànrngaunrndmronkt! DGDt+ Jvt fe|aevjnk `mt

dmutef mk jkdremte jk vè mbnukv ng uavrmwjnaev O rmfjmvjnk grnb vè Tuk v`mv hev vn

vè emrv`+ Tvufjet `mwe t`nxk v`mv jkdremtef uavrmwjnaev O rmfjmvjnk vn vè emrv`

turgmde `mt dmutef mk jkdremte jk wmrjnut tcjk dmkdert+ Vè emrv` veb|ermvure jt

matn nk vè jkdremte! mk mgverbmv` ng hreek`nute eggedv dmutef oz vè mddubuamvjnk

ng dmronk fjnpjfe jk vè mvbnt|ère+ Vète mre ewjfekdet v`mv vè dnkdekvrmvjnk ng

mvbnt|èrjd dmronk fjnpjfe `mt oeek jkdremtjkh tanxaz tjkde vè oehjkkjkh ng vè

dekvurz oedmute ng vè dnboutvjnk ng gnttja gueat (BdHrmx"@jaa Ekdzdan|efjm*+

@nxewer! wjm vè kexaz fewean|jkh |rndett dmaaef Dmronk Te}uetvrmvjnk (Cmke!

?


33/97

npzhek (@etcev`! =:8:*+ Jk v`jt tvufz! mjr xnuaf oe dnktjferef mt m buavj"dnb|nkekv

tztveb dnktjtvjkh ng kjvrnhek! npzhek! mrhnk! dmronk fjnpjfe e+v+d+! mkf vè

|naauvmkvt+

Dèrebjtjkngg ev ma (=:0=* tvmvef v`mv vè bed`mkjtb ng mjr |naauvjnk jkwnawet

|naauvmkvt ebjttjnk grnb wmrjnut tnurdet! vrmkt|nrv mkf fjggutjnk! mkf eggedvt u|nk

rede|vnrt (bmk! |amkvt nr mkjbmat*+ Vè fegjkjvjnk gmjat vn |uv vè dèbjdma d`mkhet

jkvn dnktjfermvjnk+ Vè dèbjdma d`mkhet v`mv vè |rjbmrz |naauvmkvt ukferhn retuav

jkvn tednkfmrz |naauvmkvt e+h+ |`nvndèbjdma npjfmkvt mkf tua|`mvet+ Xèk

|naauvmkvt mre ebjvvef jkvn vè mvbnt|ère! vèz mre jbbefjmveaz fjauvef! vrmkt|nrvef

mkf bjpef xjv` vè turrnukfjkh mjr+ Vè fjauvjnk retuavt jk m fedremte jk vè

dnkdekvrmvjnk ng vè |naauvmkvt+ Vè vrmkt|nrv mkf fjggutjnk fe|ekf nk xjkf t|eef

mkf fjredvjnk+ Xjkf mdvt vn vrmkt|nrv vè |naauvmkvt mkf |rnbnve mffjvjnkma bjpjkh+ Jv

`mt oeek noterwef v`mv vè xjkf t|eef feverbjket vè weandjvz ng vè mjr |naauvmkvt

mt jv vrmktwertet vè tcz mkf dnkvrjouvet vn vè |naauvjnk fjauvjnk rmve+ V`mv jt! vèhremver vè xjkf weandjvz! vè hremver vè |naauvmkv weandjvz mkf vè hremver vè wnaube

ng mjr jkvrnfudef! vùt! jkdremtjkh vè fjauvjnk rmve+

Xjkf fjredvjnk jt vè fjredvjnk grnb x`jd` vè xjkf nrjhjkmvet+ Vè xjkf fjredvjnk jt

mggedvef oz wmrjnut bevenrnanhjdma dnkfjvjnkt mkf vn|nhrm|`jdma gemvuret tud` mt

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meng thesis-a deterministic model for predicting air pollution concentration

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