merban stockbrokers ltd - graphic...on the same score eased to gh¢2.30. unilever ghana and fan...

8
1 | Page Merban Stockbrokers Ltd (a wholly owned subsidiary of Universal Merchant Bank) Monthly Financial Markets Review May 2014 Analyst: Nana K. Agyeman Gyamfi HIGHLIGHTS Global economy registers uneven growth Domestic Economy: Pessimism remains inspite of National Economic Forum 91 and 182-Day Bills edge higher Cedi loses grounds Stock market rebounds from April’s reverse Global Economy Registers Uneven Growth The global economy remained on the growth path during the month albeit, unevenly. The U.S. and U.K. strengthened further while Germany also remained resilient. China and Japan recorded some positives but still saw some negative numbers. Hiring remained strong in the U.S. with claims for unemployment benefits declining. The four-week moving average of jobless claims was 323,000 in mid-May. A reading below 350,000 is seen as evidence that the U.S. economy is adding jobs at a pace strong enough to lower the unemployment rate. In the U.K., official data released during the month confirmed Britain's economy grew by 0.8 percent in Q1 as households spent more and companies increased investment at the fastest pace in a year. In Europe businesses reported a brisk start to the 2Q as activity picked up at its fastest pace in almost three years. Retail sales data were also modestly upbeat. There were however concerns as Germany reported its weakest manufacturing output in seven months amidst other worrying economic data. On the commodities front, concerns about Ukraine persisted but buoyant economic data released by the U.S., China and other advanced countries weighed on the yellow metal. Gold futures closed the month at US$1,247.50 an ounce, compared to April’s ending price of US$1,283.40 an ounce. Fears about supply disruptions in Libya and geo-political tension surrounding Ukraine gave crude oil support during the month. Nonetheless, concerns about slowing growth in China, stable stockpiles and easing Ukrainian tension saw crude prices lose grounds to close the month almost flat. Brent futures rose from US$109.0/barrel at the end of April to US$109.41/barrel at the end of May. Cocoa prices rebound from a reverse in April as improving demand weighed. The bean also gained support from analysts’ expectation of larger supply deficit in the short-term due to challenging weather in key growing areas. Cocoa futures closed the month at £1,949/tonne from £1,848.33/tonne at the end of April. Domestic Economy Remains Fragile Business and consumer sentiments remained at low levels as key economic indicators continued to underperform during the month. The local currency continued its downward slide; inflation and interest rates remain high while erratic power supply is hampered business plans. The worrying trend saw Labour Unions call on government during this year’s May Day celebrations to find bold initiatives that will reduce the current high unemployment, rising utility tariffs and escalating fuel prices. Businesses, which continue to bear the brunt of the present developments, sustained their clarion call with the Private Enterprise Foundation (PEF) summing-up the feeling amongst members as "frustrated", "chaotic" and "uncertain". Businesses usually begin the year on an optimistic note but the AGI Business Barometer for Q1, 2014, recorded a significant dip of 90.13 in business confidence, one of its lowest in almost 4 years. A National Economic Forum held during the month with participants drawn from all sectors of the economy is yet to assuage the concerns of businesses and other economic players. Though the Cedi’s volatility has reduced in recent weeks, some stakeholders claim that the outlook does not look promising for the local economy.

Upload: others

Post on 09-Sep-2020

2 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Merban Stockbrokers Ltd - Graphic...on the same score eased to GH¢2.30. Unilever Ghana and Fan Milk, which reported unexciting Q1 results were under pressure shedding 0.6% and 6.9%

1 | P a g e

Merban Stockbrokers Ltd

(a wholly owned subsidiary of Universal Merchant Bank)

Monthly Financial Markets Review May 2014

Analyst: Nana K. Agyeman Gyamfi

HIGHLIGHTS

Global economy registers uneven growth

Domestic Economy: Pessimism remains inspite of National Economic Forum

91 and 182-Day Bills edge higher

Cedi loses grounds

Stock market rebounds from April’s reverse

Global Economy Registers Uneven Growth

The global economy remained on the growth path during

the month albeit, unevenly. The U.S. and U.K.

strengthened further while Germany also remained

resilient. China and Japan recorded some positives but still

saw some negative numbers.

Hiring remained strong in the U.S. with claims for

unemployment benefits declining. The four-week moving

average of jobless claims was 323,000 in mid-May. A

reading below 350,000 is seen as evidence that the U.S.

economy is adding jobs at a pace strong enough to lower

the unemployment rate.

In the U.K., official data released during the month

confirmed Britain's economy grew by 0.8 percent in Q1 as

households spent more and companies increased

investment at the fastest pace in a year.

In Europe businesses reported a brisk start to the 2Q as

activity picked up at its fastest pace in almost three years.

Retail sales data were also modestly upbeat. There were

however concerns as Germany reported its weakest

manufacturing output in seven months amidst other

worrying economic data.

On the commodities front, concerns about Ukraine

persisted but buoyant economic data released by the U.S.,

China and other advanced countries weighed on the

yellow metal. Gold futures closed the month at

US$1,247.50 an ounce, compared to April’s ending price

of US$1,283.40 an ounce.

Fears about supply disruptions in Libya and geo-political

tension surrounding Ukraine gave crude oil support during

the month. Nonetheless, concerns about slowing growth in

China, stable stockpiles and easing Ukrainian tension saw

crude prices lose grounds to close the month almost flat.

Brent futures rose from US$109.0/barrel at the end of April

to US$109.41/barrel at the end of May.

Cocoa prices rebound from a reverse in April as improving

demand weighed. The bean also gained support from

analysts’ expectation of larger supply deficit in the short-term

due to challenging weather in key growing areas. Cocoa

futures closed the month at £1,949/tonne from

£1,848.33/tonne at the end of April.

Domestic Economy Remains Fragile

Business and consumer sentiments remained at low levels

as key economic indicators continued to underperform during

the month. The local currency continued its downward slide;

inflation and interest rates remain high while erratic power

supply is hampered business plans.

The worrying trend saw Labour Unions call on government

during this year’s May Day celebrations to find bold initiatives

that will reduce the current high unemployment, rising utility

tariffs and escalating fuel prices.

Businesses, which continue to bear the brunt of the present

developments, sustained their clarion call with the Private

Enterprise Foundation (PEF) summing-up the feeling

amongst members as "frustrated", "chaotic" and "uncertain".

Businesses usually begin the year on an optimistic note but

the AGI Business Barometer for Q1, 2014, recorded a

significant dip of 90.13 in business confidence, one of its

lowest in almost 4 years.

A National Economic Forum held during the month with

participants drawn from all sectors of the economy is yet to

assuage the concerns of businesses and other economic

players. Though the Cedi’s volatility has reduced in recent

weeks, some stakeholders claim that the outlook does not

look promising for the local economy.

Page 2: Merban Stockbrokers Ltd - Graphic...on the same score eased to GH¢2.30. Unilever Ghana and Fan Milk, which reported unexciting Q1 results were under pressure shedding 0.6% and 6.9%

P a g e | 2

2 | P a g e

Table 1 Selected Economic IndicatorsYear End Dec Mar Apr May

2012 2013 2014 2014 2014

Inflation (y-o-y, %) 8.80 13.5 14.5 14.7

GH¢/US$ 1.8846 2.1616 2.6800 2.7939 2.8920

GH¢/US$ - Depr. (YTD) -15.95 -12.81 -19.35 -22.63 -25.26

BoG Policy Rate (%) 15.00 16.00 18.00 18.00 18.00

91 Day Bill 23.12 19.22 23.69 24.06 24.08

GSE Index (Y-T-D) 23.81 78.81 11.24 5.13 8.11

Revenue & Grants(GH¢ bn) 16.10 19.20 NA NA NA

Tot. Expenditures(GH¢ bn) 24.80 28.60 NA NA NA

GDP Growth (%) 7.90 8.0 NA NA NA

Budget Deficit (GH¢bn) 8.70 9.5 NA NA NA

B. D. (% of GDP) 11.8 9.0 NA NA NA

Tot. Exports(US$ bn) 13.50 13.80 NA NA NA

Tot. Imports(US$bn) 17.80 17.60 NA NA NA

Gross Reserves(US$bn) 5.4 5.6 4.7 NA NA

Gross Reserves (MoI) 3.0 2.9 2.6 NA NA

Cocoa-Futures (£/tonne) 1,480.00 1,726.00 1,865.00 1,848.33 1,949.00

Gold (US$/ounce) 1,675.80 1,200.00 1,284.00 1,283.40 1,247.50

Oil, Brent- Spot (US$/Brl) 111.82 109.95 107.90 109.00 109.41

MOI: Months of Import Cover NA: Not Available; BD: Budjet Deficit

Data: bog.gov.gh, mofep.gov.gh, stats.gov.gh, gse.com.gh, wsj.com, bbc.com, gold.org,

reuters.com, agrimoney.com, www.icco.org, opec.org, bloomberg.com,iea.org

Indicator

STOCK MARKET

The stock market bounced back from its two-month slide

with the indices getting a respite as eight advancers

outmuscled fourteen laggards.

A turnaround in the fortunes of some financials which had

lost grounds in the preceding weeks gave a lift to the

bourse in May. Societe Generale, Ghana Commercial

Bank, Ecobank Ghana, SIC Insurance and CAL Bank all

recorded impressive gains after being under pressure in

the two previous months.

Profit-taking, which had seen the shares of some blue chip

stocks like EBG, SCB, and GCB under pressure in March

and April, also created buying opportunities as their prices

had slipped to bargain levels. Additionally, resilient Q1

results gave a boost to their multiples. As a result, as

investors took advantage of opportunities, demand

improved while in addition orders by some speculators

saw eight equities head north.

Advancers Help Indices Regain Luster

On the back of the aforesaid, the benchmark GSE

Composite Index (GCI) clawed back some grounds as it

rose 63.85 points (2.83%) to 2,319.12. The GCI had

shaved 131.07 points (5.49%) in April and 34.57 points

(1.43%) in March. The return on the market thus improved

to 8.11% from 5.13% at the end of April.

The GSE Financial Index (GFI) was also resolute bagging

121.18 points (6.34%) to 2,033.2, representing a year to

date gain of 13.8%. The Financial Index (GFI) had lost

180.44 points in April. The GFI’s return as a result rose

from 7.02% at the end of April to 13.80%.

Societe Generale Heads Gainers

Societe Generale (SOGEGH) was the lead gainer clawing

back some of the grounds lost during the last two months.

SOGEGH, which peaked at GH¢1.18 in February was

battered in March and April due to profit taking. It however

bounced back this month - as investors went in search of

bargain deals - leaping by 35% (24GHp) to close at 92GHp.

In the same vein, Ghana Commercial Bank and Ecobank

Ghana also gained 25% (GH¢1.01) and 15% (90GHp) to

GH¢5.02 and GH¢6.90 respectively.

HFC Bank, which has been in demand recently, possibly on

the back of the market’s reaction to Republic Bank’s tender

offer extended its northward climb by 16% (20GHp) to

GH¢1.45.

Tullow Oil was also a strong gainer bagging 16% (GH¢4.95)

to GH¢35. Other equities which moved this month were SIC

Insurance which rose to 43GHp; CAL Bank which also

inched up to 88GHp and GOIL which climbed to 90GHp

respectively.

May-14 Apr-14 May-13

GSE Composite Index 2,319.12 2,255.27 1,884.26

Points Gain (Loss) 63.85 (131.07) 83.61

Percent Chg Y-T-D (%) 8.11 5.13 57.06

GSE Financial Index (FSI) 2,033.20 1,912.02 1,665.16

FSI-Points Gain (Loss) 121.18 (180.44) 67.00

FSI-Percent Chg Y-T-D (%) 13.80 7.02 60.13

Vol of Trades (M) 16.62 21.80 20.23

Value of Trades (GH¢M) 27.36 23.84 32.22

Market Capitalization (GH¢M) 57,748.05 57,728.05 55,948.29

No. of advancers 8 5 15

No. of decliners 14 17 5

Table 2: Stock Market Highlights

Market IndicatorMonth End

© MSL Research; Data: GSE

Page 3: Merban Stockbrokers Ltd - Graphic...on the same score eased to GH¢2.30. Unilever Ghana and Fan Milk, which reported unexciting Q1 results were under pressure shedding 0.6% and 6.9%

P a g e | 3

3 | P a g e

May-14 Apr-14 Chg May-14 Y-T-D

Societe Generale SOGEGH 0.92 0.68 0.24 ▲ 35.3 22.7

Ghana Comm. Bank GCB 5.02 4.01 1.01 ▲ 25.2 3.5

Tullow Oil TLW 35.00 30.05 4.95 ▲ 16.5 0.1

HFC Bank HFC 1.45 1.25 0.20 ▲ 16.0 51.0

Ecobank Ghana EBG 6.90 6.00 0.90 ▲ 15.0 23.0

SIC Insurance SIC 0.43 0.40 0.03 ▲ 7.5 10.3

CAL Bank CAL 0.88 0.86 0.02 ▲ 2.3 -9.3

Ghana Oil GOIL 0.90 0.89 0.01 ▲ 1.1 1.1

EquityPrice GH ¢ Pct Chg

Table 3: Gainers For the Month

Unilever, Total Amongst Fourteen Laggards

On the other hand, fourteen equities retreated this month

partly as a result of profit taking, selling pressure and

bargain hunting.

Total Petroleum (TOTAL) and Standard Chartered (SCB)

were under selling pressure as some investors went in

search of bargain deals. TOTAL trimmed 0.10% to

GH¢6.40 while SCB shaved 1.07% to GH¢17.90. BOPP

on the same score eased to GH¢2.30.

Unilever Ghana and Fan Milk, which reported unexciting

Q1 results were under pressure shedding 0.6% and 6.9%

to GH¢17.98 and GH¢7 respectively. Profit taking saw PZ

Cussons and Guinness Ghana slip to 58GHp and

GH¢5.58 while MAC and PBC slipped to GH¢3.10 and

13GHp respectively.

Other equities which closed the month down were

Aluworks, Enterprise Group, African Champion,

Mechanical Lloyd and UT Bank.

Volumes Impressed

Inspite of the improved investor mood during the month,

which saw thirty equities changing hands, volumes in May

failed to match that of April. The number of shares that

were exchanged during the month under review were also

lower than figures registered for the same period in 2013.

A total of 16.6 million shares were traded. This compares to

the 21.8 million shares that were exchanged in twenty-seven

equities in April. Volumes in May were also lower than the

20.2 million shares registered in May 2013.

African Champion (ACI) was the most traded stock as it

accounted for 40% of trades registered for the month. A total

of 6.72 million shares of ACI changed hands.

Other equities which recorded impressive trade volumes

were ETI (2.33 million) and Ecobank Ghana (1.94 million).

CAL Bank (1.48 million) and SIC Insurance (896,750) were

the other equities which made up the list of the top-5 most

traded equities.

Turnover Improved

Turnover for the month was an improvement over the figure

registered in April driven largely by price gains.

Total value of trades for the month amounted to GH¢27.4

million. This was 15% above the GH¢23.8 million registered

in April. It however failed to match the GH¢32.22 million

registered in May 2013.

Ecobank Ghana recorded the highest turnover of GH¢12.08

million. Fan Milk inspite of the 6.9% slide in price followed

with a turnover of GH¢4.26 million.

May-14 Apr-14 Chg May-14 Y-T-D

Unilever Ghana UNIL 17.98 18.08 0.10 ▼ -0.6 -1.8

Total Petroleum TOTAL 6.40 6.50 0.10 ▼ -1.5 26.5

PZ Cussons PZC 0.58 0.60 0.02 ▼ -3.3 -26.6

Guinness Ghana GGBL 5.58 5.78 0.20 ▼ -3.5 -10.0

Standart Chartered SCB 17.90 18.97 1.07 ▼ -5.6 19.8

Fan Mlk FML 7.00 7.52 0.52 ▼ -6.9 5.7

Benso Oil Palm BOPP 2.30 2.50 0.20 ▼ -8.0 -28.3

Mega Africa Co. MAC 3.10 3.50 0.40 ▼ -11.4 0.0

PBC Limited PBC 0.13 0.15 0.02 ▼ -13.3 -23.5

Mechanical Lloyd MLC 0.29 0.34 0.05 ▼ -14.7 -23.7

UT Bank UTB 0.35 0.42 0.07 ▼ -16.7 -22.2

Aluworks ALW 0.05 0.06 0.01 ▼ -16.7 0.0

Enterprise Group EGL 1.86 2.29 0.43 ▼ -18.8 -1.1

African Champion ACI 0.03 0.06 0.03 ▼ -50.0 -50.0

Table 4: Decliners For the Month

EquityPrice GH ¢ Pct Chg

©MSL Research; Data:GSE

Page 4: Merban Stockbrokers Ltd - Graphic...on the same score eased to GH¢2.30. Unilever Ghana and Fan Milk, which reported unexciting Q1 results were under pressure shedding 0.6% and 6.9%

P a g e | 4

4 | P a g e

MONEY MARKET

On the money market rates on Government of Ghana

treasury bills have been fairly stable in the last few weeks.

This is an indication that rates on short-dated securities

have peaked after being on the upward trend since the

beginning of the year.

The falling Cedi, stretched government finances and

inflationary pressures saw investors demand for risk

premiums pushing rates higher. Nonetheless, the drop in

rates on the recent 3-year bond from 25.48 percent to

24.48 percent is an indication that investors anticipate a

winding down later in the year

In view of the foregoing, although the upward leaps

experienced earlier in the year were non-existent, the 91-

Day and 182-Day bills edged up marginally but the 1-Year

and 2-Year Notes were unchanged from April’s closing

levels. As seen in Table 5, the 91-Day bill climbed 2 basis

points from 24.06 percent at the end of April to 24.08

percent. This compares to a leap of 146 basis points in

February and 261 basis points in March.

The 182-Day bill which gained 150 basis points in

February and 30 basis points in March trimmed 6 basis

points in April. It was however up 11 basis points to 21.29

percent. The 1-Year and the 2-Year Notes were flat closing

the month at 22.50 percent and 23.0 percent respectively.

CURRENCY MARKET

The Cedi continued to lose grounds against the major

currencies although at a decelerating pace. Improvements in

the economies of a number of advanced countries in recent

months, which gave a boost to their currencies, ensured that

the Cedi lost further grounds in May.

Although demand by investors, corporates, importers and

other economic participants have also driven up the pressure

on the local currency since the turn of the year, the level of

volatility has dropped slightly in recent weeks.

On the back of the foregoing, the Cedi closed the month

down by 3.39 percent against the Dollar to GH¢2.89 as

shown in Table 6. This compares to a depreciation of 4.08

percent and 5.85 registered against the greenback in April

and March. The Cedi’s slide against the Dollar was however

no better as it slipped by 0.25 percent against the greenback

in May 2014.

The Cedi also shaved 2.0 percent against the Euro to

GH¢3.94 while against the Pound and the Swiss Franc it

trimmed 2.71 percent and 2.04 percent to GH¢4.84 and

GH¢3.23 respectively. Comparatively, the Cedi’s

performance against the two currencies this month was

better than the outturn in April when it trimmed 5.27 percent

and 4.44 percent respectively. Against the South African

Rand the Cedi closed the month down by 4.54 percent to

GH¢0.28.

Month End 31-May-14 30-Apr-14 31-May-13

Inflation 14.70 14.50 10 .60 ▲

Prime Rate 18.0 0 18.0 0 15.0 0 ₋

91-Day Bill 24.0 8 24.0 6 23.0 3 ▲

182-Day Bill 21.29 21.18 23.0 4 ▲

1-Year Note 22.50 22.50 22.0 0 ₋

2-Year Note 23.0 0 23.0 0 22.40 ₋

Amt Raised GH¢(M) 3,478.87 2,234.0 0 1,559.20 ▲

©MSL Research; Data:GSS; BoG

Table 5: Money Market Rates

Page 5: Merban Stockbrokers Ltd - Graphic...on the same score eased to GH¢2.30. Unilever Ghana and Fan Milk, which reported unexciting Q1 results were under pressure shedding 0.6% and 6.9%

P a g e | 5

5 | P a g e

May-14 Apr-14 May-14 Apr-14 May-13 2014

Dollar 2.8920 2.7939 -3.39 -4.08 -0.25 -25.26

Euro 3.9393 3.8604 -2.00 -4.53 0.16 -24.20

Pound 4.8375 4.7062 -2.71 -5.27 1.69 -26.15

Sw Franc 3.2281 3.1622 -2.04 -4.44 1.66 -24.47

Rand 0.2765 0.2639 -4.54 -4.21 11.33 -25.39

©MSL Research; Data: BoG, GAB

Performance of the Cedi

Table 6: Interbank Mid-Rates and the

Gain / LossCurr

Rate - Month End

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

Feb '14 Mar '14 Apr '14 May '14

Gai

n /

Loss

(Per

cent

)

Performance of the Cedi: Month-on-Month

Dollar Euro Pound Sw Franc Rand

Diagram 8

SOURCE: Bank of Ghana / MSL Research

OUTLOOK

Global Economy Needs Support

Optimism about global economic growth has been

bolstered in recent weeks however worries still persist on

the back of the uneven growth trajectory.

As noted by heads of key international institutions at the

end of their meeting in Berlin, high unemployment,

significant output gap, low investment, rising inequality and

slowdown in emerging economies are still having an

impact on global growth prospects.

The heads of the Organization for Economic Cooperation

and Development (OECD), the International Monetary Fund

(IMF), the World Bank, the International Labour Organization

(ILO) and the World Trade Organization (WTO) noted that

the global economy has noticeably improved, but is still far

from a robust, sustainable growth.

In line with reduced expectations for 2014, the International

Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut its growth forecast for the U.S.

economy from April’s estimate of 2.8 percent to 2 percent at

its recent meeting. The IMF’s Christine Lagarde atrributed

the cut to the economy’s contraction in Q1, when a harsh

winter, drawdown in inventories, a sluggish housing market

and slow demand weighed.

These indications thus call for further propping of the global

economy by finance ministers.

Germany, inspite of driving Eurozone growth has recently

reported a rise in unemployment sparking fears of slowdown.

Already pessimistic tones are being sounded with the

Bundesbank projecting that the nation's economic expansion

in Q2 is unlikely to match the pace of the first three months.

On the commodities front, improving advanced economies is

expected to boost demand and hence prices. Investors’ fears

in recent weeks have been on possible disruptions to

production in Russia, a key oil producer now in the mix of the

Ukraine crises.

Cocoa is expected to remain firm in the weeks ahead

although in a recent release the International Cocoa

Organization has reduced its supply deficit for the year.

Favourable weather in West Africa has boosted port arrivals

with futures prices thus projected to stay within US$3,051 per

tonne in the coming weeks.

Gold has been resilient in recent weeks partly on the back of

the Ukrainian crises. The metal is however projected to be

under pressure as the global recovery gathers pace. The

price of the yellow metal is thus projected to trade below

US$1,300 an ounce in the weeks ahead.

Domestic Economy May Remain Subdued

The domestic economy is likely to remain fragile in the

months ahead as the Government explores alternatives to

contain the falling local currency, rising inflation, high interest

rates and reduce its expenditure, amongst others.

With businesses and consumer sentiments falling in recent

months, it is imperative that the government fixes the local

economy. Already, businesses are not optimistic about

achieving targets for capital expenditure, employment, sales

and revenue, as revealed by latest surveys conducted by the

BoG. Credit by banks to the private sector has also slowed

Page 6: Merban Stockbrokers Ltd - Graphic...on the same score eased to GH¢2.30. Unilever Ghana and Fan Milk, which reported unexciting Q1 results were under pressure shedding 0.6% and 6.9%

P a g e | 6

6 | P a g e

down in recent months on the back of the current level of

interest rates.

In line with expectations, the IMF and World Bank have

projected a lower growth rate of 4.8% for Ghana in 2014.

Nonetheless, the marginal uptick in global sentiments,

driven by the advanced countries has lifted the outlook for

commodity prices in 2014 - a development which could

boost the nation’s earnings. The major downside risks

could be the faster tapering by the US Fed and slow

recovery in China.

On the back of the present economic challenges, we

anticipate the Cedi sliding further in the near term as

businesses review the latest revisions in the BoG’s

policies.

Forex supply shortages will however persist as some

exporters keeping their receipts offshore while banks

struggle to meet demand by corporates and other

business concerns. The local currency may also not be

helped by the fact that some targeted external funding are

yet to materialize as external donor support has lagged in

recent months.

On the money market, rates will remain within current

levels in the near term as the challenges confronting the

economy are still present. It is however likely that rates

may start declining slowly in September when conditions

improve. We also expect a rise in the 182-Day bill in the

next couple of weeks to correct the yield curve

On inflation, we anticipate further climb in average price

levels as pressures still persists. Recent moves by the

Public Utility Regulatory Commission (PURC) and the

National Petroleum Agency (NPA) may ease the pressure

on prices in the short-term. The PURC deferred the

implementation of the second quarter tariffs for electricity

and water while the National Petroleum Agency has

maintained fuel prices for a second time after its bi-weekly

review.

Though these developments might placate businesses and

consumers in the weeks ahead, the question that remains is

‘For how long’? With the Cedi still sliding, the continuous

depreciation may weigh on the prices of goods and services

as the rippling effects of our import dependent economy

weigh.

STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK

In the coming weeks we anticipate the search for bargains,

and also the correction in the prices of some shares to

pressure the market. Nonetheless, we expect the bourse to

consolidate gains as recent sessions have witnessed

outstanding bids for a number of stocks.

We believe opportunities for the long term still exist in Ghana

Commercial Bank, Ecobank Ghana, Stanchart and Societe

Generale as they are currently trading at some historically

lower PE and P/Bs. BOPP, PBC and GOIL will also be

amongst the stocks to be watched by investors.

On the flip side, Guinness Ghana and PZ Cussons may be

amongst the stocks under pressure due to profit taking while

Fan Milk and Unilever may shed some grounds in the near

term due to present production challenges

We thus reiterate that, investors should not be dampened by

some of the recent declines in some blue chip stocks but

rather look at the opportunities presented and take positions

at the current bargain prices. Additionally, investors will be

able to reduce the losses on their portfolios as buying shares

at some of the current low prices will reduce the average

costs of their holdings.

Page 7: Merban Stockbrokers Ltd - Graphic...on the same score eased to GH¢2.30. Unilever Ghana and Fan Milk, which reported unexciting Q1 results were under pressure shedding 0.6% and 6.9%

P a g e | 7

7 | P a g e

Stock Market Data: May 31, 2014 Vols

INDUSTRY/TI CKER

Price Price Pct 52 Week

Pct Volume Value P/E E/Y Div P/B DPS Market Market

EQUITIES Close Close Dec-13 Chg High Low Chg Traded Traded Ratio Yld Ratio Cap. Cap.

GH¢ US$ GH¢ YTD 1-Yr (%) (%) GH ¢ GH¢(M) US$(M)

A gro Processing 2.89 2.89

Benso Oil Palm BOPP 2.30 0.80 3.21 -28.3 3.97 2.30 -17 14,515 34,172 19.77 5.06 1.34 1.93 0.033 80.04 27.68

Golden Web Ltd GWEB 0.04 0.01 0.04 0.0 0.04 0.04 0 10 0 n.m. n.m. 0.00 - 1.40 0.48

Cocoa Processing CPC * 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.0 0.02 0.01 0 16,890 337 n.m. n.m. 0.00 n.m. - 22.02 7.61

Banking

Cal Bank CAL 0.88 0.30 0.97 -9.3 1.17 0.81 9 1,477,589 1,291,215 4.83 20.72 6.09 1.51 0.053 482.47 166.83

Ecobank Ghana EBG 6.90 2.39 5.61 23.0 7.98 4.35 57 1,943,455 12,084,030 8.04 12.44 6.94 2.88 0.430 2,023.29 699.62

Ecobank Trans. Inc. ETI 0.22 0.08 0.19 15.8 0.25 0.17 16 2,334,951 497,111 7.45 13.41 10.00 0.70 0.020 3,511.86 1,214.34

Ghana Com. Bnk GCB 5.02 1.74 4.85 3.5 5.40 4.00 -2 464,366 1,922,627 4.46 22.41 5.25 2.02 0.210 1,330.30 459.99

HFC Bank Gh Ltd HFC 1.45 0.50 0.96 51.0 1.45 0.54 164 86,416 114,831 10.54 9.49 1.71 2.37 0.022 429.72 148.59

Societe Generale SOGEGH 0.92 0.32 0.75 22.7 1.18 0.62 7 453,235 390,784 6.09 16.42 9.52 1.17 0.060 307.18 106.22

Standard Chart SCB 17.90 6.2 14.94 19.8 20.6 13.6 16 143,465 2,659,673 9.34 10.71 6.07 4.28 1.150 2,067.63 714.95

UT Bank UT 0.35 0.12 0.45 -22.2 0.52 0.35 -33 35,985 17,590 35.41 2.82 0.00 0.96 0.000 105.71 36.55

Trust Bank (Gb) TBL ^ 0.25 0.09 0.35 -28.6 0.35 0.24 -29 78,825 18,998 7.37 13.56 9.24 - 0.023 50.00 17.29

Beverage 2.89 10.4 12.2 6.1 2.0 2.89

Fan Milk Ltd FML 7.00 2.42 6.62 5.7 7.55 5.70 21 575,840 4,259,354 50.24 1.99 1.20 10.77 0.090 813.47 281.28

Guinness Gh. GGBL 5.58 1.93 6.20 -10.0 6.40 4.30 30 1,661 9,381 85.86 1.16 0.42 8.02 0.024 1,179.28 407.77

Distribution 68.05 1.58 9.4068.05 9.40

Produce Buying PBC 0.13 0.04 0.17 -23.5 0.24 0.13 -32 185,457 24,371 3.19 31.33 0.00 1.69 0.000 62.40 21.58

Insurance #########

Enterprise Group EGL 1.86 0.64 1.88 -1.1 2.50 0.85 119 380,084 822,981 6.38 15.67 0.72 2.05 0.016 237.76 82.21

SIC Insurance SIC 0.43 0.15 0.39 10.3 0.52 0.35 -14 896,750 334,068 3.63 27.56 5.06 0.96 0.018 84.13 29.09

Investments 5.00 21.61 5.06 1.50

Mega African Cap. MAC 3.10 1.07 16,066 49,649

IT Solutions 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Clydestone CLYD 0.04 0.01 0.04 0.0 0.04 0.04 0 1,200 48 n.m. 0.50 7.50 2.22 0.003 1.36 0.47

Transaction Soln. TRANSOL 0.03 0.01 0.03 0.0 0.04 0.03 -25 0 0 n.m. -52.67 0.00 4.27 0.000 2.40 0.83

Manufacturing 2.89 24,532,430

PZ Cussons Gh PZC 0.58 0.20 0.79 -26.6 0.91 0.35 66 5,469 3,167 21.44 5 0.63 2.64 0.004 97.44 33.69

Unilev er Ghana UNIL 17.98 6.22 18.31 -1.8 18.31 14.47 24 3,887 71,583 49.69 2.01 1.42 33.22 0.256 1,123.75 388.57

Aluworks Limited ALW 0.05 0.02 0.05 0.0 0.06 0.05 -17 102,705 5,180 n.m. n.m. 0.00 0.44 - 11.83 4.09

Pioneer Kitchen PKL 0.06 0.02 0.06 0.0 0.06 0.06 0 119 0 n.m. n.m. 0.00 -1.34 - 2.00 0.69

Mining 2.89

AngloGold Ashanti AGA 37.00 12.8 37.0 0.0 37.0 37.0 0 0 0 n.m. n.m. 0.35 - 0.130 14,187.28 4,905.70

AngloGold Dep. AADs 0.52 0.18 0.52 0.0 0.52 0.52 0 0 0 n.m. n.m. 0.25 - 0.001 0.51 0.18

Golden Star Rsrcs GSR 2.75 0.95 2.75 0.0 2.75 2.75 0 0 0 n.m. n.m. 0.00 - 702.43 242.89

Petroleum Retail

Ghana Oil Co Ltd GOIL 0.90 0.31 0.89 1.1 1.40 0.75 -36 458,347 411,895 15.79 6.33 1.56 3.79 0.014 189.17 65.41

Total Petroleum TOTAL 6.40 2.2 5.1 26.5 42.0 3.4 86 89,618 579,035 20.24 4.94 2.42 6.64 0.156 715.97 247.57

Petrol Exploration 18.01 5.64 1.99 5.22 1.500

Tullow Oil Plc TLW 35.00 12.1 35.0 0.1 35.0 30.0 11 45,100 1,501,267 1090.9 0.26 5.44 0.092 31,634.75 10,938.71

Paper Conversion A nd Printing 0.06 #DIV/0! 0.06

Camelot Ghana CMLT 0.16 0.06 0.16 0.0 0.16 0.16 0 0 0 4.42 0.23 3.75 0.63 0.006 1.05 0.36

Sam Woode Ltd SWL 0.04 0.01 0.02 100.0 0.04 0.02 100 54,620 2,184 1.75 0.57 21.50 0.48 0.004 0.87 0.30

African Champion ACI 0.03 0.01 0.06 -50.0 0.06 0.03 -50 6,719,747 246,225 n.m. n.m. 0.00 0.31 0.000 0.97 0.34

Pharmaceutical 2.89 8.4 0.5 2.89

Ayrton Drug AYRTN 0.17 0.06 0.17 0.0 0.18 0.17 0 15,800 2,686 13.08 7.65 0.72 1.94 0.001 36.55 12.64

Starwin Products SPL 0.04 0.01 0.04 0.0 0.05 0.03 -20 5,362 196 n.m. 2.75 2.50 1.04 0.001 2.96 1.02

V ehicle Dealership 1.6 1.5

Mechanical Llyod MLC 0.29 0.10 0.38 -23.7 0.39 0.25 16 10,515 3,068 1.01 98.77 2.35 0.44 0.008 14.53 5.02

©MSL Research; Data: GSE / Company F inanc ials ####### GH¢ 2.89 = US$1 Avg P.E 18.32

Page 8: Merban Stockbrokers Ltd - Graphic...on the same score eased to GH¢2.30. Unilever Ghana and Fan Milk, which reported unexciting Q1 results were under pressure shedding 0.6% and 6.9%

P a g e | 8

8 | P a g e

GUIDE TO TABLES

Yr Year AGA

Px Price ETI

Qtr Quarter TBL

Y-T-D Year To Date DPS

P/B Price To Book Ratio P/E Price To Earnings Ratio

AngloGold Ashanti

Ecobank Transnational Incorporated

Trust Bank Limited, The Gambia

Gross Div; Last Financial Year

DISCLAIMER

This document is not intended to be an offer, or a solicitation of an offer for the sale or purchase of any security. The information and opinions contained in this document have been compiled from or arrived at in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. Whilst care has been taken in preparing this document, no representation is given and no responsibility or liability is accepted by MSL, any member of MSL or the UMB group as to the accuracy of the information contained herein. All opinions and estimates contained in this report may be changed after publication at any time without notice.

CONTACT US

Merban Stockbrokers Ltd. 57 Examination Loop North Ridge P. O. Box 401, ACCRA - GHANA Tel: - +233 (0) 30 225 1131 – 5 Direct +233 (0) 28 955 5200 Fax: - +233 (0) 30 225 1138 E-mail: [email protected] / [email protected] / [email protected] Web: www.merbanstockbrokers.com

KEY PERSONS

Ag. Head Barbara Agyenim-Boateng Stock Market Contributor Haruna Gariba Money Market Contributor Manfred Bressey Analyst Nana K. Agyeman Gyamfi Mawuena Gagakuma

MERBAN STOCKBROKERS LIMITED (A LICENSED DEALING MEMBER OF THE GHANA STOCK EXCHANGE)