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MET 112 Global Climate Change: Lecture 11

Energy & Climate Change Mitigation

Dr. Eugene Cordero

Outline:Outline: Energy use Mitigation Kyoto Protocol Strategies

In one of the articles we read this week, what was the mitigation strategy suggested.

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1. Solar

2. Wind

3. Carbon trading

4. Carbon credits

5. Wedges

In the reading from Time magazine, what approach is California using

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Both

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1. Volunteer reduction of emission.

2. Development of nuclear

3. Reduction of aerosol emission from trucks

4. Conversion to solar in all city buildings

5. Cap and trading of carbon emissions

6. Both 1 and 3

7. Both 2 and 5

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Obviously, one of the main issues related to climate change is the burning of fossil fuels

Thus, energy use, and the continuing demand for energy are central to the challenges of climate change.

Energy and Climate Change

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Tons of CO2 emitted per person

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US COUS CO22 Emissions Emissions

Total emissions ~ Total emissions ~ 5,788.5 million metric tons5,788.5 million metric tons ~ 22 metric tons per person ~ 22 metric tons per person

Industry: 35% Industry: 35% Transportation: 33%Transportation: 33% Residences: 18%Residences: 18% Commercial: 14%Commercial: 14%

1,600 million metric tons due to personal use (~33%)1,600 million metric tons due to personal use (~33%)

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Automobile fuel: 38 gallons per month Natural Gas: 15 therms per monthElectricity: 190 Kilowatt-hours per monthAirline Miles flown  147 miles per monthTotal:

Latest estimate ~ Kyoto allowance (for US):

~ To stabilize climate (550ppm)

Average US Personal Energy Use (Per Person)

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Automobile fuel: 38 gallons per month Natural Gas: 15 therms per monthElectricity: 190 Kilowatt-hours per monthAirline Miles flown  147 miles per monthTotal:

Latest estimate ~ 17,600 lbs of CO2 Kyoto allowance (for US):

~11,000 pounds To stabilize climate (550ppm)

4,700 pounds

Average US Personal Energy Use (Per Person)

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1. What percentage of electricity generation comes from the burning of natural gas?

2. What percentage of transportation energy comes from natural gas burning?

3. What percentage of transportation energy use comes from coal?

4. If you buy an electric car, what is the mostly likely source of energy?

5. Where does most residential energy come from?

Questions

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What percentage of electricity generation comes from the burning of natural gas?

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1. 5%

2. 10%

3. 17%

4. 61%

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If you buy an electric car, what is the most likely energy source

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Coal

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1. Natural gas

2. Coal

3. Petroleum

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Mitigation of climate changeMitigation of climate change

Mitigation: Mitigation: – Steps taken to avoid or minimize negative Steps taken to avoid or minimize negative

environmental impacts. environmental impacts. Mitigation can include: Mitigation can include:

– avoiding the impact by not taking a certain avoiding the impact by not taking a certain action; action;

– minimizing impacts by limiting the degree or minimizing impacts by limiting the degree or magnitude of the action; magnitude of the action;

– rectifying the impact by repairing or restoring rectifying the impact by repairing or restoring the affected environmentthe affected environment

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

‘stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous

anthropogenic human induced interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-

frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to

proceed in a sustainable manner’

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Figure: Courtesy of IPCC

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Climate Change 2001: The Scientific BasisWGI contribution to IPCC Third Assessment Report

Summary for Policymakers (SPM)Drafted by a team of 59Approved ‘sentence by sentence’by WGI plenary (99 Governments and 45 scientists)

14 chapters881 pages120 Lead Authors515 Contributing Authors4621 References quoted

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IPCC Assessment ReportIPCC Assessment Report

IPCC-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise (warming).Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise (warming).– Anthropogenic aerosols tend to produce negative radiative forcing Anthropogenic aerosols tend to produce negative radiative forcing

(cooling)(cooling)““The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence

on global climate”on global climate”(IPCC) 1997(IPCC) 1997

"There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human

activitiesactivities .“.“ (IPCC),(IPCC), 20012001

(IPCC) 2007

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IPCC Assessment ReportIPCC Assessment Report

IPCC-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise (warming).Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise (warming).– Anthropogenic aerosols tend to produce negative radiative forcing Anthropogenic aerosols tend to produce negative radiative forcing

(cooling)(cooling)““The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence

on global climate”on global climate”(IPCC) 1997(IPCC) 1997

"There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human

activitiesactivities .“.“ (IPCC),(IPCC), 20012001

The IPCC finds that it is “very likely” that emissions of heat-The IPCC finds that it is “very likely” that emissions of heat-trapping gases from human activities have caused “most of the trapping gases from human activities have caused “most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the

mid-20th century.mid-20th century.(IPCC) 2007

The IPCC finds that it is “very likely” that emissions of heat-trapping gases from human activities have caused “most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures sincethe mid-20th century.”

Human Responsibility forClimate Change

Source: IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis—Summary for Policymakers.

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The Kyoto ProtocolThe Kyoto Protocol A United Nations sponsored effort:A United Nations sponsored effort:

– Calls for reductions of greenhouse gas emissions by Calls for reductions of greenhouse gas emissions by industrialized countries of 5.2 per cent below 1990 levels. industrialized countries of 5.2 per cent below 1990 levels.

– The Protocol will go into force after The Protocol will go into force after 1.1. The protocol has been ratified by a minimum of 55 countries.The protocol has been ratified by a minimum of 55 countries.2.2. The ratifying nations comprise 55% of global greenhouse The ratifying nations comprise 55% of global greenhouse

gas emissions.gas emissions.– Current status:Current status:

156 countries have signed accounting for 61% of global CO156 countries have signed accounting for 61% of global CO22.. US not planning on signing protocol (US accounts for 36% of US not planning on signing protocol (US accounts for 36% of

COCO22 emitted) emitted) Kyoto protocol went into force in Feb 2005Kyoto protocol went into force in Feb 2005

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Articles of the Kyoto ProtocolArticles of the Kyoto Protocol

Aim:– Ways to reduce increasing GHG

Goals:

– Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy

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Articles of the Kyoto ProtocolArticles of the Kyoto Protocol

Aim:– Ways to reduce increasing GHG

Goals:

– Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy

– Protection and enhancement of sinks

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Articles of the Kyoto ProtocolArticles of the Kyoto Protocol

Aim:– Ways to reduce increasing GHG

Goals:

– Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy

– Protection and enhancement of sinks– Promote sustainable agriculture

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Articles of the Kyoto ProtocolArticles of the Kyoto Protocol

Aim:– Ways to reduce increasing GHG

Goals:

– Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy

– Protection and enhancement of sinks– Promote sustainable agriculture– Research and promote new and renewable energy–

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Articles of the Kyoto ProtocolArticles of the Kyoto Protocol

Aim:– Ways to reduce increasing GHG

Goals:

– Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy

– Protection and enhancement of sinks– Promote sustainable agriculture– Research and promote new and renewable energy– Phase out any incentives for ‘bad practice’–

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Articles of the Kyoto ProtocolArticles of the Kyoto Protocol

Aim:– Ways to reduce increasing GHG

Goals:

– Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy

– Protection and enhancement of sinks– Promote sustainable agriculture– Research and promote new and renewable energy– Phase out any incentives for ‘bad practice’– Encourage ‘good practices’

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Articles of the Kyoto ProtocolArticles of the Kyoto Protocol

Aim:– Ways to reduce increasing GHG

Goals:

– Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy

– Protection and enhancement of sinks– Promote sustainable agriculture– Research and promote new and renewable energy– Phase out any incentives for ‘bad practice’– Encourage ‘good practices’– Cut GHG from aviation

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Articles of the Kyoto Protocol Articles of the Kyoto Protocol (II)(II)

Keep to assigned amounts of GHG with overall worldwide reduction by at least 5% below 1990 levels by 2008-2012

Countries can meet their commitments together

Joint implementation -Countries can work together to meet their emission reduction targets.

Richer (annex 1) countries can help developing countries to achieve sustainable development and limit GHG increases and then claim some emission reductions for their own targets

Emissions trading - countries can trade in ‘emission units’

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Kyoto TargetsKyoto Targets

Industrialized countries will reduce their collective emissions by 5.2% compared to the year 1990

Note that compared to the emissions levels by 2010 without the Protocol, this target represents ~30% cut).

Calculated as an average – over the five-year period of 2008-12.

Target includes six greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride, HFCs, and PFCs

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Kyoto Targets(2)Kyoto Targets(2)

National targets– European Union - 8% below 1990 levels– USA - 7% below 1990– Japan - 6% below 1990– Russia 0% (stay at 1990 levels)– Australia 8% over 1990 levels) – Developing countries (no target)

China, India etc.

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Kyoto Targets: Developing Kyoto Targets: Developing countriescountries

The UN Framework on Climate has agreed:

1. The largest share of historical and current global emissions of greenhouse gases –

2. Per capita emissions in developing countries –

3. The share of global emissions originating in developing countries – will grow to meet their social and development needs.

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Kyoto Targets: Developing Kyoto Targets: Developing countriescountries

The UN Framework on Climate has agreed:

1. The largest share of historical and current global emissions of greenhouse gases – has originated in developed countries;

2. Per capita emissions in developing countries – are still relatively low;

3. The share of global emissions originating in developing countries – will grow to meet their social and development needs.

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Emissions TradingEmissions Trading

Each country has an emission limit. If this country cannot meet it’s target, it may

purchase carbon credits from other countries (on the open market) who are under their limit.

This financially rewards countries that meet their targets.

Countries also receive carbon credits through

– –

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Emissions TradingEmissions Trading

Each country has an emission limit. If this country cannot meet it’s target, it may

purchase carbon credits from other countries (on the open market) who are under their limit.

This financially rewards countries that meet their targets.

Example of Russia Countries also receive carbon credits through

– clean energy programs (i.e. greentags) – carbon dioxide sinks (i.e. forests, oceans)

"We will not do anything that harms our economy, because first "We will not do anything that harms our economy, because first things first are the people who live in America" things first are the people who live in America"

- President Bush- President Bush

Main reasons the US will not sign the Kyoto Protocol?Main reasons the US will not sign the Kyoto Protocol?Economic burdenEconomic burdenNo limits on developing countries (i.e. China, India)No limits on developing countries (i.e. China, India)Protocol is not going to help muchProtocol is not going to help much

Solutions - government

Kyoto Protocol

California potential leader

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Solutions - personal Transportation Home Food Consumption

www.earthday.net : Top 10 Actions; Ecological Footprint

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Four R’s

1. Rethink

2. Reduce

3. Reuse

4. Recycle

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Solutions - Consumption

Question your consumption urges

Material versus service based economy

Buy products that are in line with your values

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Questions1. Is there scientific agreement that humans are causing global

warming? Is this consensus reflected in the media and political arena? Why do you think there is a discrepancy??

2. Does our society have the ability and capacity to solve the problem of global warming? Give some examples.

3. How important is the issue of global warming to our civilization? Who should care?

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