MET matters in SESAR

Dennis HART

Implementing the Single European Sky

Performance Safety Human factor

-Performance scheme

-Performance Review Body

-Functional Airspace Blocks

-Network Manager

-National Supervisory Authorities

-EASA -Crisis coord.

cell

Airport

observatory

-Specific sectoral dialogue Committee

-Consultative expert

group on social dimension

of the SES

Airports

European ATM Master Plan

SESAR Joint Undertaking

Common projects

Technology Technology

The SESAR Phases

Definition phase

Create European ATM Master Plan

Deployment Phase

Implement results of development to meet performance targets Development Phase

Develop new standards, operational procedures and technologies

Today

3 ,000 contributors

300

projects

29 validation exercises

03/2010

1,300 contributors

150 projects

09/2009Airlines

on board

07/2009

400 contributors

20 projects

06/2009 Launch

Airports

Ground

Industry Airborne

Industry

National

Authorities/

Military

R&D

community

Staff

associations

Air

Navigation

Service

Providers

Airspace

users

SESAR involves All Actors

EUROPEAN

COMMISSION

EUROCONTROL

Founding members

Founding Members

EUMETNET Consortium contracted by EUROCONTROL on behalf of

SESAR Joint Undertaking

MET partner in SESAR

6

SESAR Concept of Operations

is a Paradigm Shift for ATC

Past

Procedural Control

the current and planned a/c

positions

Today

Radar Control

Know the current and estimate planned a/c

positions

Future

Trajectory Management

Know & share the current

& planned a/c positions

Integrating airports - time synchronised

operations of surface trajectories and flight

turn-around

Integrating airspace users flight systems to build

predictable time synchronised flight

precision

The Intranet for Air Traffic Management

Integrating airports - time synchronised operations of

surface trajectories and

flight turn-around

AIRPORT

INTEGRATION AND

THROUGHPUT

SYSTEM WIDE INFORMATION MANAGEMENT

The Intranet for Air Traffic Management

Integrating airspace users

flight systems to build predictable

time synchronised flight precision

MOVING FROM

AIRSPACE TO 4D

TRAJECTORY

MANAGEMENT

Integrated with

airport operations planning and airspace user

flight planning

NETWORK

COLLABORATIVE

MANAGEMENT AND

DCB

TRAFFIC

SYNCHRONISATION

Improving arrival/departure management and sequence building

to allow flying closer to the

optimum trajectories

Human operators

concentrate on high value-added

tasks

CONFLICT

MANAGEMENT AND

AUTOMATION

SESAR Priority Strategic Business Needs

8

9

10

Ross Paulson photography

Source NASA-Lewis Research Centre

US NTSB: over 20% of the

aviation accidents WX related

More than 20%

of the airport delays in Europe

WX related

Boeing survey – the

highest training concern

15% of the en-route

ATFM delays in Europe

WX related

The questions on the table

Does MET understands today's ATM System requirements

Do ATM understands today's MET capabilities

Do MET understand the future ATM System requirements

Do ATM understand the future MET capabilities

We need

better

forecasts

16

“Uncertainty is an

uncomfortable position.

But certainty is an

absurd one”

- Voltaire

The Challenge

17

Precautionary principle

Managing Uncertainty

with Confidence

Continue to work on….

That bad forecasts should not preclude using MET information

in ATM

That the concept of doubt works in ATM

Impact Assessment / Risk Management

19

MET INFORMATION

TRANSLATION

of information into

aviation constraints

IMPACT

ASSESSMENT

Conversion of

translated information

in to operational

impact on ATM Actor

processes

DECISION

Impact mitigation

MET Information Provider Capability ATM Actor Capability

Levels of Integration

MET INFORMATION

TRANSLATION

of information into

aviation constraints

IMPACT

ASSESSMENT

Conversion of

translated information

in to operational

impact on ATM Actor

processes

DECISION

Impact mitigation

MET Information Provider Capability ATM Actor Capability

Level 0: No integration

‘I need to do it all in my head..’

Level 1: ‘Weather on the glass’

‘It is easier to figure out the impact..’

Level 2: Constraint

Translation to ATM Constraint

Level 3: Impact

Conversion to ATM Impact

Level 4: Decision Support

Generation of Hierarchical Solutions

MET

ATM

Sources: Mitre, FAA, Eurocontrol, ICAO

Probabilistic Trajectory Prediction WP11.1 / WP-E

Probabilistic Trajectory Prediction WP11.1 / WP-E

Sources: SESAR WP E.02.40 Draft D2.2

Enables improved knowledge based decision making, e.g.:

• Trajectory uncertainty (thus cost) is visible

• Cost index could use these (flight time) uncertainties

• Balancing flight time adherence vs total cost

YEARS 6 MONTHS

Mid/Short

Term Long Term Execution

HOURS MINUTES DAYS

OB

SE

RV

AT

IO

N

NOWCASTING

FORECAST

Domain Resolution Validity

Range

Refresh

Rate

GLOBAL 15 km [6 - 240 h] 6 h

REGIONAL 2.5 km [2 – 24 h] 20-60 min

LOCAL 0.5 km [1-3 h] 20 min

Domain Resolution Validity Range Refresh

Rate

GLOBAL 3 km [0 – 2 h] 20 min

REGIONAL 2.5 km [0 – 2 h] 10-20 min

LOCAL 1.5 km [0 – 2 h] 2-20 min

Domain Resolution Validity Range Refresh

Rate

GLOBAL 15 km [0 - 20 min] 20 min

REGIONAL 1.5 km [0 - 20 min] 20 min

LOCAL 0.3 km [0 - 3 min] Min-sec

TO

Mapping MET to ATM & ATM to MET

Indicative

Identified key MET capabilities required for SESAR

1. Radar composite for 3D convection

2. Nowcasting of convection

3. Super-ensemble forecast of convection

4. Diagnostic for forecasting of icing

5. Diagnostic for clear air turbulence (CAT)

6. Forecast of impact of winter conditions at airport

7. MET parameters for Network management

8. MET parameters for 4D trajectory calculation

Avia

tion

spe

cific

High level technical architecture

General MET Infrastructure & capabilities ATM-dedicated

Aerodrome MET Infrastructure & capabilities

<Domain System>

(ATM System…)

MET observation servers

<Domain System>

(Network

ATM System ...)

<Domain System>

(Sub-regional

ATM System …)

<Domain System>

(Local

ATM System …)

SWIM

Consolidated Aviation MET Information

Tailored MET-ATM Information

MET-ATM Information Services

Indicative

Distributed Core MET

information from multiple

providers

European

Consistent

MET

information Filtered and

Tailored MET

Information for

ATM

Specific MET

Information

Services for

ATM

Thank you!

Dennis (L.M.) HART

Senior Aviation Meteorology Expert & SESAR MET Contract Manager

dennis.hart@eurocoontrol.int