metataxis the future is now! (and bright… · digital changes everything in a smart connected...

© Metataxis 2016 Designing the information-centric environment since 2002 Slide 1

Metataxis

The Future is Now! (and bright…)

(Trends and the implications for KO, KM, and IM)

Noeleen SchenkMay 2016


• A brief overview of the Futures work we have been doing

• Discuss the some of the key trends affecting information and knowledge management

• Consider what these trends will mean to information and knowledge management:

• their impact

• our response

• opportunities presented

Aims


• Interested in looking to the future, dabbled in discussions

• Sheila Moorcroft, Realising your future

• Series of workshops October 2015 – January 2016

• Workshop aimed to:

o Explore which trends will be the most significant over the next 5-10 years

o Focus on identifying some key assumptions and characteristics likely to shape and challenge IKM rather than developing full blown scenarios

o Begin to consider how they might impact on KM, IM and KO

o Stimulate conversations about our future opportunities

Introduction


What is horizon scanning?

• Horizon scanning identifies and integrates signs of change

• It is a systematic examination of information to identify potential threats, risks, emerging issues and opportunities

• It uses a variety of sources ranging from blogs and social media to well researched reports and academic papers

• It aims to challenge thinking, raise questions, explore the implications of change

What may be changing?

What might it mean for us?

What should we do about it?


1995 (2015 or latest)

• 23,000 websites (298 million)

• 40 million internet users world wide (2 billion)

• Wells Fargo adds account services to website

• Sony PlayStation 1 and Internet Explorer launched

• 42% of US population never heard of internet – 14% use

• 5% UK population have mobiles (>92%; 72% of mobiles = smartphones)

• John Major and Bill Clinton in power

• Goldeneye, Apollo 13 – popular films

How things change!

Arrivals (2015 users)• 1997 – Netflix (60 million)• 2000 – Zipcar =2 cars• 2001- Wikipedia • 2002 – LinkedIn (380 million)• 2004 – Facebook (1.4 billion)• 2005 – YouTube (> 1 billion), Reddit (36

million), Huffington Post • 2006 – Twitter (284 million), WikiLeaks• 2007 – Apple iPhone; 1st MOOC• 2008 - Airbnb, Groupon and UBER• 2009 - WhatsApp• 2010 – Instagram (300 million) and iPad• 2011 – SnapChat; AI MOOC Stanford• 2014 – Royal Society Open Source

Journal

We adapt to change very quickly. When looking to the future, it is therefore instructive to look back, to understand the scale of change ahead. A rule of thumb is to look back twice as

far as we look forward; in this case therefore 20 years.

Where were you in 1995? How did you do your job?


Redefining learning and skills for a new world order

Robo-lleagues and AI arriving –whose new jobs or no jobs?

The ever changing battle for cyber-security

New business models to maximise resources

The exponential growth of knowledge and data

Omnichannel access, UIs & layered realities bringing new approaches

Economy 4.0 - redefining the rules, in a multi-polar world

Digital changes everything in a smart connected world

Generation effects changing expectations & needs

System complexity creating system vulnerability

IKM

New approaches to regulation, privacy and governance

Each change is significant in its own right. But more importantly, each is part of a wider system of change and interacts with all other changes.

Interconnecting drivers affecting the future of IKM


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• Prior to 1900, world knowledge doubled every century

• By 1945 it was doubling every 25 years

• Now it is estimated to double every 13 months.

• The IoT could result in a doubling of data every 12 hours.

• 2013, the internet = 5 million terabytes; Google had indexed 200 terabytes

• By 2020, the digital universe will be 44 zettabytes total - where 1 zettabyte = 1000 exabytes

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Knowledge and data – growing exponentially


• The IoT plus 3D/ 4D printing, AI and robots, and new systems architectures plus new materials, nanotechnologies and synthetic biology create a smart world of radical transparency, real-time analysis and designability

• 30-50 billion connected devices could be a cybercriminal’s dream – with most on default security settings

• Smart capabilities will transform work, education, health, research, leisure –but also bring digital divides, and job losses

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Digital changes everything in a smart connected world

http://motherboard.vice.com/en_uk/blog/the-internet-of-things-could-be-the-biggest-business-in-the-history-of-electronics

http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-how-people-will-actually-use-the-internet-of-things-2014-4


• Cyber-threats are growing - cost the UK economy £27 billion p.a. (2011); >$400 billion p.a. globally (2014). TalkTalk is a high profile case, most are undeclared

• IP theft costs about £9 billion p.a. in the UK; identity theft £1.8 billion p.a.

• Smart buildings and infrastructure will be increasingly vulnerable – 20% of smart buildings ‘cyber vandalised’ by 2018; the IoT a potential leaky sieve

• Biometrics plus ‘something you have’ offer new levels of personal security; fingerprint, iris, vein patterns to brainwaves – pass-thoughts could replace passwords

• The block-chain could provide decentralised, verifiable, encrypted transactions – for any transaction; you can verify the sender without seeing the content

• The block-chain ‘Like watching the birth of the internet again’ - it will decentralise organisations and enable new approaches to processes and collaboration

• Digital obsolescence and data loss/ incompatibility a growing issue

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The ever changing battle for cyber-security

http://gendal.me/2015/02/10/a-simple-model-for-smart-contracts/


• The digital economy will affect every sector, be Just in Time, lean and circular, designed for maximum efficiency

• It will also be the sharing, zero-marginal cost, collaborative economy where everything is a service from street lighting to jet engines to manufacturing processes, and consumers expect new approaches

• By 2025, value added from the IoT could be between $3.9 and 11 trillion p.a.; interoperability will be critical

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Economy 4.0 – redefining the rules, in a multi-polar world


• AI / robot capabilities growing: - self learning/ deep learning machines; Watson and Jeopardy; computer beat average human score on IQ tests in China; human scale AI coming by 2040 according to Ray Kurzweil

• Robots are moving out of the factory into offices, law firms, shops, onto the streets, into the air

• 50% of US jobs seen as vulnerable – especially, but not exclusively, low skilled jobs

• By 2018 – 20% of business content machine authored; 3 million workers have a ‘robo-boss’

• By 2020, 1 in 3 knowledge workers replaced by smart machines; 70% of low skilled jobs under threat

http://www.kurzweilai.net/oms-working-paper-on-the-future-of-employment-how-susceptible-are-jobs-to-computerisation

Robo-lleagues and AI arriving – new jobs/no jobs

http://www.kurzweilai.net/oms-working-paper-on-the-future-of-employment-how-susceptible-are-jobs-to-computerisation


• Transparency rules! Crowdsourced governance courtesy of social media–including clicktivism, protests and whistle-blowers – puts organisations on the spot to walk the talk

• New metrics / approaches to repair trust in corporations and their actions and account for external costs e.g. environmental and social

• Major companies pursuing a new agenda, challenging conventional thinking with circular economy, triple bottom line, social capital/CSR and shared value

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Regulation and governance – whose rules/priorities

© Metataxis 2016 Designing the information-centric environment since 2002 Slide 13 169

What challenges are IKM practitioners facing?

Organisation

GovernanceData


What are we going to do about the challenges we are facing with out content:

• Open data

• Data lakes

• Massive data volumes

• Increased levels of complexity – both in data and data analytics

• Increasingly decentralised data storage

• Applications used to manage content operating in a multi-cloud, multi-device landscape

• Digital incompatibility and obsolescence increasing exponentially

Data, data everywhere…


Digital security, governance and regulation is lagging behind digital innovation…..

• Privacy is moving from niche to value proposition

• How much information are we willing to trade off for convenience?

• Who should have access to MY information?

• How do I provide evidence of the “right to access”?

• How far am I willing to stretch the bounds of access and privacy to allow law enforcement perform their role?

Trust – won or lost….


According to the World Economic Forum (WEF), robots will "rob" the economy of 7.1 million more jobs in the next four years, while at the same time creating 2 million more, for a net loss of some 5 million positions.

• New types of organisations – social business, worker co-operatives

• New ways of working – contractors, remote working

• New types of skills:

o Balance between human mediation and technology mediation (algorithms rule)

o Soft skills increasingly critical as technology becomes more dominant

o Trusted mediator / curator / broker – the ability to access the reliability and accuracy of sources of information is an increasingly critical USP for IKM

Brave new world…


At the rate at which data and our ability to analyse it are growing, businesses of all sizes — large and small — will be using some form of data analytics to impact their business in the next five years.

• Metadata management

• Linking or integration of data – otherwise silos stay silos

• Entity level access control/governance

• Curation, provenance of the data

• Quality assurance of the reliability, authenticity and currency of the data

• Master data management

• Information and data governance

• Information and data analysts

Is the future bright…


As practitioners and as a community, we need to respond to these immediate business challenges, taking advantage of technological advances and focussing on:

• Individual ways of working, not force them to fit ours

• Obsolesce of many current information roles

• Open innovation and open information eco-systems

• Potentially transitory nature of organisations and information creators

• Governance challenges, including fractured nature of country specific regulations and restrictions

• Establishing the provenance of data and information

• Obtaining value from the mountains of “dark data”

• Managing data ownership in a world where data is traded and individually owned

But…


Questions?

[email protected]

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