meteorology research group · vaj Ä ~ Ö^ 0` .a (z ³ v (ambaum et al. 2001) y.|g o8p/j! Ü|Ý...

9
1 2 3 4000 : 1 Thompson and Wallace(1998 2000 TW2000) (EOF) (SST) (GCM) (Yamazaki and Shinya 1999 ) ”zonal flow vacillation”(Yoden et al. 1987 Hartmann 1995 ) EOF (EOF1) (Deser 2000) (NAO) (Walker and Bilss 1932) NAO (Wallace 2000) NAO (PNA;Wallace and Gutzler 1981) (Ambaum et al. 2001) (Limpasuvan and Hartmann 2000 Kimoto et al. 2001 )

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Page 1: Meteorology Research Group · VaJ Ä ~ Ö^ 0` .a (z ³ V (Ambaum et al. 2001) y.|g O8P/J! Ü|Ý æ5J b m _.|Ô5Õ X8ZQ£ c.d,e JG / f ÷ 6à¢R/s8 Q .g h ¾âfúue,iFj Ô-Õ 3PuJ

������������ ����������— ������� —

�����! "$#&%('*)+-,/.101.1032546087/9-:

;=<>-?/@/ACBEDGF-H1IKJML1N1OQPSRT>1UWVYX5ZKJT[3\^]G_a`6bGc�dfe .Qg3.5h L6i-j5k^]l3m ean-oqpQrKR/sutwv6xqeMy-XQZ(z|{-}/~a�-����_|X5ZKJM�3�Q�QnKz

1 �G�6� z .u� ~�5�6_��1�Q�8n2 �M�3� z .(� ~T�Q�KJ 3 � t�JT�6�5X8Z �M�-�5�1� ]f� m _�� 4000 �w�]f�6��d�eay-�q�QX-ZKJ �6�3� sY�5�6�-�5nWR/sa�Q�6�3�� ¢¡ g ?3£/¤¥¡§¦(¨�¡ª©q |«8J¬5­ z|®/~1�5� � t¯_8>-?q@ .5g OQP(J5°5±Q² �/�q³ V�L-N3O-P(J|p-´WµY®/~-�Q� m Vfy

¶5·W¸¹·»º:L-NqOQP/_ .-g3.Qh L(_ �3� O1P6_8�q�-XQZ

1 ¼¾½À¿qÁThompson and Wallace(1998

_2000 Âuà TW2000)Ä8Å Nq{-Æ Å N3Ç6�q£5Èu�3É1Ê g3Ë J|O3PW]TÌ6rKÍ

Î-Ï(Ð n(EOF) ÑuÒ|Ó ] l/m �a�6��df_ .-Ô-Õ ~ .g J �5� O8P/JQ~8Ö � µ¹�(�aµ�×8Ø-U^V�i-¦!Ù Ä _�ÚÛ-Ü|Ý �GµaR�Ì5H5ÞQß|àKzMá¢â5ãåäQI¾�¹AfF5H/æ5J �P �3³ V�çèLQN3iQ¦*Ùêé �3³ V-ë6�M]TìqíSd�eay/ëMJL5N/~MO5P Ä X|�qÖ^î Ã|ï ²5ð6@-ñ �aò|ó5ô Ë Í-~Yõö ]udY� m VYyQL3N3O-P ÄG÷8ø ] � d��5ù¾îûú¢VazQ_¬ RGüQý¢Ra×-Ø/U¢V¹y5Èu�Qþ3H

(SST)J5O1PW]G{ ø

o �|ÿ�� e t¯_�ý��S]����¢d��T�/�Ge .8g-.|h L1i5jk(GCM)

p1r � µ��S~|O-P(z|×-Ø3U¢V (Yamazaki

andShinya1999~ �

)ë3�fÖWî _fL5N1O5P Ä���� Í6R

.-g J�� ï O-P �/³ VK��� � îÀú VYyuñ3e|L3N/i6¦ÙåJ|Ì ø O3P Ä��-ø J g�� O1P ���������q](µ|�Q�� t$_8L3N/O1Puz g�� ]M�qU��6±K~��� R-~uVu� �� îÀú(� m Vfy! Ü1Ý J|L6N(i1¦ Ù Ä�" æ�#%$8¦'&8z^s(ã)(^� mV6µ8J1J-_�*5ú�îYz�� ÷ J,+.- �(³ V8Ö/�10�Ö Ä324 daµ�5Wî�Ö � Ä ~ m yaÚ Ü5Ý JTL5N3iQ¦¥Ù Ä _ Â.6Ö î�7 î úK� m e3� Ë�8:9 � Å N({-Æ Å N6?uJ3;�<= l �q³ V ”zonal flow vacillation”(Yodenet al. 1987

_Hartmann1995

~%�)�>�%�?+.-^]u�3î � � m V/�?�

� îÀúK� m VYy ÷�@ _ Û3Ü-Ý � Ä _ EOFJA ÷ i3¦

Ù(EOF1)

R � m �8_1AYFQHuJ�B3{C1I¾� . �,CQI��Ä �3D:E �(³ VGz1_�!QX1ISJ5O-PSJ;F<uJ; Ð Ä�Gm(Deser2000)

y3ñQe Û . ��CQIuR Ä Ú Û,H ä�I�JKJ� P�# $a¦%& �q³ V Û . ��C � P (NAO)

z8ß,K6U Vz

(Walker andBilss1932)_Së|J3L�M/Í6~GO1P �q³ V

NAOJN�3� �$L8NQi|¦�Ù§JN��� Ä ; Ð zGD m

(Wallace

2000)yKë�ú¾îfJ/ë6��Ö î�_ Û3Ü8Ý � Ä _ NAO

£.B3{C3I^J5O1PW] ¬1­�O%P VQB({�C�B Û:R�S/T U�VXW,YZ «�[�\�&N#%$|¦'&

(PNA;WallaceandGutzler1981)J @ z8L1N(i3¦ Ù�sWtGµ .1g O1PW](sWt^]�_ RM��d� m VaJ � Ä ~ m Ö^� m 0`�.a(z ³ V (Ambaumetal.

2001)y

.|g O8P/J! Ü|Ý æ5J�b m Ä _ .|Ô5Õ X8ZQ£c.d,eJG�/��f ÷ 6à¢R/s8�Q�.g�h¾âfúue,iFj Ô-Õ �3PuJb m R�kKVu�Që,lQz .W� m � � � î ú¢VYySñ1e|L3Ni3¦ ÙªJ�m 0 ]n� � V�o � Ä � Ë�8:9 £�i�j Ô-Õ �Pq~'��JM�QP,pQP¾��J ÐNq z��-± �3³ V (Limpasuvan

andHartmann2000_

Kimoto etal. 2001~ �

)yMX8Z/J

b m RKs|�Q� .1g O3PKJ-°1±3i6¦ Ù �/³ VYL6NqO1Pzr�MJSs%0�R|O5c/U¢V8Ö(]Tv/x¢V3ëK� Ä _5L3NqO1PJ 4 �W]ts u3VTeFuQR>v,w �3³ V�y*uë � _Qx�y Ä XZ ] 4�z c�d¹��i�j Ô1Õ �3P1{ P ] Î,| g�h�d�_ �� �q£�� ËF8�9 �TJ;�< = l ]}.~1c�d��|n3o/p1r

Page 2: Meteorology Research Group · VaJ Ä ~ Ö^ 0` .a (z ³ V (Ambaum et al. 2001) y.|g O8P/J! Ü|Ý æ5J b m _.|Ô5Õ X8ZQ£ c.d,e JG / f ÷ 6à¢R/s8 Q .g h ¾âfúue,iFj Ô-Õ 3PuJ

Fig.1: Radiativeequilibrium temperaturefor Newtonian

cool/heating. Horizontallineson theright-handsidede-

note the positions of vertical discretizationanddashed

lines are those for bottom boundarylayer and for top

spongelayer.

Fig. 2: Relaxation time constant for Newtonian

cool/heating( � ) andRayleighfrection(� ).

�N�'�.�3��������%�

(2002) ����������� �)���3�,��� �3������� ( � � ) � 0m ¡�¢ 1000m £,��¤¥�§¦�¨�©1ª �«¬�­�®:¯n°�±�²,³ �Q���,���

15 ´¶µ 4000 ·?¸��3¹ ®¯ � EOF ºF» �Q� �,��¼�½ ��¾�¿�©.ÀÁ��Â�Ã�Ä �,��3�:�1�Á� �,Å.Æ'Ç1È ©���É/ÊF�ÁË�Ä�ÌÁ¡ ���3� ���Â:Ã:�,©.�%� ��� ���:�1��Í¥� ÅÎ��1Ï �3©.��ÉÊn�,���.Ð È �t� � =400Ñ 500m Ò�Ó��nÔÁ��©3�¥� ÅÕÊ � ¾.¿�©.À��NÂ�Ã��3�Q� � =400Ñ 500m

�tÖ � �,� Ä×�Ø Ð�Ù/Ë Æ%Ç Ð.ÙÚË>� Æ%Ç1È 2 ¨ �3Ì'Û�Ê���Ë>Ä� Ç Ê �Ü�ÝÁÞ ���.� �.� ��:��Ä.ß1Ð �.�àFáFâ���� �ã ��ä.å Ä.ß:Ð ���3àFá �n¾F¿�©�À1�3Â�ÃÁÄræ�� ��t��çè��¡ �>é�ê Ê �F��� Ä.ë�ìÁÐ à�á � ��� � ã�,ä,å Ä 1 �3����Ä Æ Ç Ð à.á �ní'�Qî ã �.ä�å Ä 2

����:Ä Æ%Ç Ð àFá � 3 ¨:� à�á���ï îF��¾F¿F©�À��Â:Ã:�ç ÕÁ�nð � È�é�êÁÅ � ��� �3ñ�ò �.ó ¢>¡

Fig. 3: Topographyin (a)WN1 and (b)WN2 experi-

ments. Negative value is hatched. Outside numbers

show longitude.

�nÉ�Ê �

2 ô�õ,ö�÷:øù�ú�ûFüÜ,ÝFÞ ��ý Õ��þ ¹,ÿÁ�3� 3 ��� Æ���Æ�� ¾ þ ¹�ÿ

AGCM5.3(�������� ������

1998)��� Ë>�3� Õ�È

¨�¡���������� ����� � � ��� ���� �Ê (Akahoriand

Yoden1997)���!.é"�# å�$&% ���.Ê�')(+*-, ÿ þ

¹.ÿÁ�.�).�ë.Ì�º�/Á��0 ä.å 42 ��1�2�3�4 (T42) ��&� �.�� FÊ ��576 �.� Fig. 1 8�9 �:�'��� 30 : �Ë�;^�=<��X�?>�@ 50km �&;BA�� 7 :Á��'�C�D�EF:XË�)�HG�I 2 ::� ÖJ :XË�� �n�=K�L ���1��MN ® ,ODPQ �SRT7U�V&WYX[Z�\=] <�^�_�`Fa�b \ K�L�c�def�gih�j�k�l�m Un�o�pq ^�r&^�s�tvuFwyxHz�bv{(Fig. 1)

][|�\�} ^=~��7��� ( ����� ) h����� U 20 � n���� U4 ���H�&{�+�?`

� ���B� ����������������   �¡�¢£ ¤¦¥¨§ª©¬« (1)

Page 3: Meteorology Research Group · VaJ Ä ~ Ö^ 0` .a (z ³ V (Ambaum et al. 2001) y.|g O8P/J! Ü|Ý æ5J b m _.|Ô5Õ X8ZQ£ c.d,e JG / f ÷ 6à¢R/s8 Q .g h ¾âfúue,iFj Ô-Õ 3PuJ

Fig. 4: EOF1of surfacepressurein (a)FLAT, (b)WN1 and(c)WN2 experiments.Numberon the top right cornerin

eachpanelrepresentscontributionrate.

Fig. 5: EOF1of zonalmeanzonalwind in (a)FLAT, (b)WN1 and(c)WN2 experiments.Numberon the top right

cornerin eachpanelrepresentscontribution rate.

­�®?¯H°7±�²�¯2²´³?µ¶�·�¸�¹�¸

5.5 º ¯ 12 º ­�®»(Fig. 2)¼ ±�½¿¾�À7Á�²&µ7¶+Â�Ã-Ä?Å�Æ�ÇÉÈ=Ê�Ë�¯·�¾=ÌÍ�Î�Ï

(ÐÒÑÔÓ ) ¶=°�±�²Õ­ 2²Ö³?µ�·�¸�¹�¸

0.5

º ¯ 2.5 º ­®�» ¼�×�Ø�Ù�Ú ²[Û7Ü�Â?ôÄOÅ�Æ�ÇiÈ�Ê˯�Ì�Í7Î�Ï�Ý�Þ(Ð )

пßàá àãâä�å�æ�ç�èOéê áëíì î ïñð¨òôó ÑÔÓöõ (2)

­�®Y»(Fig. 2)¼÷�ø�ùvú Û�¶�û�üý�þÿÈ�����¯�����¯��+Û��Ö®

���� ¾��¿µ�����¯=Ì�Í7Î�Ï�¶�°�����Þ42Û�� ®

6Î�Ïi­�®Y» ¼��� ���¿È �ÝÉ® ¯"!#�%$'& ÷�(#) ¶+*, �- Ë�» ¼.�»�¯#��/[Û�0�Ë ¶ �� ��/1�2¿¾#3&È=Ê�Ë�» ¼4657 �[È+8���»�9;:�<=Å>=�?�@A�B

( C�D $FEHGH¯2002) IKJML ¾ 3

0iÈ�NPO�Q ®H¯SRUTWV�XSY#Z7Å;=[�\ È^];_�» ¼ 1

0�`�¶ øa(FLAT)

Ab7µ�¯�cd�ef ­�Ü�Û 7 �ÉÈ ø�a ­�®F» ¼ 2

0S`�¶�g C �Þ 1 h

(WN1)A�b7µ�¯ 7#4 ¾ Ú#i�Øj[Ù#k�l�m ( npo ) qnposrutwvuxzy ßP{}|�~���x���r à é x���y}��� æ t (3)

µ 4�� ¸K��g C ��Þ 1 h ¾ 7 � (Fig. 3(a))È�d>e

f ¾3[Û�����¯cPe f ¶ ø�a ­�®F» ¼ »6Q ®H¯ t : ���¯ x : � à Ù�� � (x ß���� æM� ¯ � : � � )¯ | : ����>��

(9.8�+� Ñ � ) µ>��� ¼ 7 �[¾��>� ~ � ¶ 1000m­�®

» ¼ 30;`¶�g C �Þ 2 h (WN2)

A�b�µ¯Fig. 3(b)¾ 7 �ÉÈ�H��� dPe f ¾#3¿Û��7Ë�» ¼ �>�¿¶��U��

~ � =1000mµP�6� ¼

250K¾�¡#¢�£����¿Û^¤6¥#¦6§[È � ��»�Ü)¾�È^¨©ª ­�®?¯

300 º Ï�Î�Ï�«6¬ ®H»�­¿Û 4000 º Ï�«�¬®?¯�·�¾4000 º ¬[È [�\ Û ®�Ê´®�» ¼�¯ Z m ¾�° �¶%±�²�³�´�¾�Z�ŵ=�µP�P� q ¯ ×�¶ :=à ٠· Ï�Èv® ��¸�²�³�´&¾#Z�ŵ=�Û�8¹Ö®F» ¼ .»Pº�_;��T�®»�» © 8¼vÛ�½´³¾*U�)»6`�Û�¯

30 º ¾ low-pass¿�Àm =�Å¿È�Á´®Y» 1 º� ¾#Z�Å�=�È [�\ ®�¯�ÃPÄ[¶�de f Û#Å6_�» ¼

Page 4: Meteorology Research Group · VaJ Ä ~ Ö^ 0` .a (z ³ V (Ambaum et al. 2001) y.|g O8P/J! Ü|Ý æ5J b m _.|Ô5Õ X8ZQ£ c.d,e JG / f ÷ 6à¢R/s8 Q .g h ¾âfúue,iFj Ô-Õ 3PuJ

Fig. 6: Time seriesof normalizedPC1of zonalmeanzonalwind corresponding to EOF1shown in Fig. 5 in (a)FLAT,

(b)WN1and(c)WN2experiments.

3 ÆPÇ

3.1 EOF ÈÉ7�45 ��¸(Ps)Ê ¾ EOF

[\ ÈM]�_H» ¼ Ps¾

EOF1¶�¯307¾�A#b ­�Ü�Û)¯�Ë�ÄÕ­�Ì � �7µ�Í�#Î6Ï&È�ÜÐ g C�ÑÒ�Ó þ q�Ô � Y+Õ#Ö�×6Ø�È�® Ë>� (Fig. 4)¼»Q+® ¯

WN1¯

WN2A#b�¾ ÊÙ ¾ EOF1

¶FLAT

Ab�¾�Ú#Û[Û+Ü, � �ÝÞ�þ q �>�P� ¯ 7 �7¾�ß¿Û#�»�� � �#à�á�µ���� q ����Ë ¼ Ë[È+â�Tzã�Ë Ë��åä¾�ÃPÄ¿¾#��� � ¶

FLATA�b[¾ Ê6Ùµq Ü�_i­�Ü Ô �� ¯

WN2Ab&¾ ÊÙ�q Ü�_[­�Ü��µ��Ë ¼ Î�Ï q Í6æ*µ�å27¾ ç6��¶=¯

FLATA�b�¾ Ê#Ù ¶+d ��è 65

��µ��TÒ¯

WN2Ab�¾ ÊÙ ¶�d �è 55

��µ6��� ¼ WN1A

b7¾ ÊÙ Û�¶ � �¿Û�R�_ �é�é#ê Ë q �UTÒ¯ � � 135�à6á�µ�¶�d �è 50�7¯ � � 315

�à�á7µ¶�d �è

65�¿µP�P� ¼ FLAT

¯WN1 ë R�O WN2

A�b[¾ Ê6Ù¾#ì6�í¿¶�·�¸7¹�¸35% 36% 24%

µ>�îTã¯WN2Ab&¾ Ê�Ù ¾�ì��í&¶�ï[¾ 2

0[Û�Ü�, Ô � Ë ¼76ð IHJ 50hPa.�µ�¾�Ã6Ä+Û ëµñ ��ò#Ö øó òÖô

(U)¾

EOF1¶�¯�Ë6ÄÖ­�Ì � �6Ä[µ�Í���ÎPÏ[È7ÜÐ ¯ 76ð IîJ ±�ü�õ�²µöP.µ#÷;_�ø>_�»#£ù�ú6¸;ûY�×�ØÕ­�Y>�

(Fig. 5)¼ Ìü$�ý � �vÛ ë�ñ � þ�ÿ ù¿ú¾�×6Ø¿È�3;�7­�¯���� ª ¶300hPa

à6á�µ&Ü�_¿­�Ü ����+Y_ Ë;� ¼ Ü�_v­�Ü Ë��vÛ��6� 2¿¾�ç>��¶�¯ 30&¾#A�b&¾>Ì�µ

FLATA�b&¾ Ê6Ù�q Ü�_[­�Ü�ý � �Û��îT ¯#d �è 55

�¿µ>��� ¼ WN1A�b&¾ Ê�Ù ¶�d

��è 50�[µ��îTÒ¯

WN2A�b¿¾ Ê�Ù µ7¶&Ü�_i­�Ü��

� �¿¾�d �è 45�&µ��P� ¼ .�» 300hPa

µ¾�2[¾)Þ¶�¯

FLATAb¿¾ Ê�Ù ¶ 3

07µ���� q ¯ WN2A�b�¾

Ê�Ù ¶ 20�µP� TÒ¯

WN1A�b[¾ Ê�Ù ¶ 1

0�µ��P� ¼

Page 5: Meteorology Research Group · VaJ Ä ~ Ö^ 0` .a (z ³ V (Ambaum et al. 2001) y.|g O8P/J! Ü|Ý æ5J b m _.|Ô5Õ X8ZQ£ c.d,e JG / f ÷ 6à¢R/s8 Q .g h ¾âfúue,iFj Ô-Õ 3PuJ

Fig. 7: Frequecy distribution function of PC1 in (a)FLAT, (b)WN1 and (c)WN2 experiments. Curves denotethe

normaldistribution. ShadedcolumnsrepresentdayswhenPC1is greaterthanor equalto 1.5standarddeviation,or it

is lessthanor equalto é à ì î standarddeviation.

FLATAb�¯

WN1Ab�¯

WN2A#b�¾ ÊÙ ¾�ì�í7¶·�¸�¹�¸

57% 64% 45%µ>� Tã¯

Ps¾

EOF1¾#ì

�#íÕ­+� Ó Û�¯ WN2Ab7¾ ÊÙ ¶+ï&¾ 2

0&Û�Ü, Ô � Ë ¼

Fig. 6¶

EOF1Û�����*H��õ6¬

(PC1)¾�Î

´�ÉÈ�·�¸�¹�¸[¾�³��� ��(±

)µ������ ®H»�¾[Ü�¾

µP�>� ¼ U¾

PC1­

Ps¾

PC1­�¾�����¶�¯

FLAT¯

WN1¯

WN2Ab�µ�¶�·�¸�¹�¸

0.88 0.96 0.91­Mý

� ¯Ps­

EOF1¶����>û�Û�S��8¼õ�¬[È&­ J� ËS��­��S� J ¸U� ¼ FLAT

¯WN1

¯WN2

Ab&µ¾

PC1¾�³��� ��&¶�·�¸7¹�¸

26.8 52.6 40.2µ��

TÒ¯FLAT

A�bi��,WN1

¯WN2

A�b¿¾PC1

¾#8¼ q ����Ë��7­ q ¬ I � ¼ PC1

¾�Î7Ï�8��+Û�¶� "!Y�# © þ[¶�3 J ¸PY�ËvÜ=¾�¾�¯ FLAT

Ab7¾ ÊÙ ¶HÞ100 º ) ��¾�ÎÏ ×�$ Å m ¾�8#¼ q% ` J ¸S� ¼ ��¸Û+� ® ¯

WN1A#b�¯

WN2Ab7¾ Ê�Ù ¶�¯ FLAT

Ab¿¾ Ê�Ù Û�Ü�, "& Ë�Î7Ï ×�$ Å m ¾�8�¼ q('�) ® Ë;� ¼ .�» PC1 q Ï+*>û7Û��;�#Y�ä[¾ ª È¿­����­ q �P� ¼ ��¾µR-, Y�Ã/. Ù10 ¶(2/��3iÛ�45��_ ë TÒ¯76[Û WN2

Ab�¾ ÊÙ ¶�» © Ï+48� J Y�ËÉ­��(800 º:9 1600 º ¯ 3300 º�9 Y�; ) q 3 J ¸U� ¼�����´®�»

PC1¾+<�¬�=iÈ

Fig. 7Û7>* ¼ FLATA�b7¾ ÊÙ ¶?(�¬�=[Û�á�Ë q ¯ WN1A#b¯

WN2A

b�¾ ÊÙ ¶)¯ PC1¾�Î�´�¿Û�3 J ¸;�å俾7 ���Ã�. Ù

0 Û����Ö®H»� �T q 3 J ¸H� ¼ FLATA�b�¯

WN1A

b�¯WN2

A�b�¾ Ê�Ù ¾�@��7¶�·=¸�¹)¸ éBA ì CED ¯ éBA ì {�{ ¯éBA ì ê { µ��UTÒ¯ WN2

Ab q�Ò(F @HG�Q�¬(=Ö­�Y_ Ë;� ¼

3.2 I�JKMLMNPO È�ÉU¾

PC1 q à ì î ±#R�T ����Y © Ï (High)­ ¯ é à ì î ±RST Ô � Y © Ï (Low)

È�â�T^°+®�¯RQ Ù�Ø�ÚTSU0 [\ È�]�_�» ¼ FLATAb¿¾ Ê�Ù High

¶163 º ¯ Low¶

304 º µ��ST ¯ WN1A�b7¾ Ê#Ù ¶)·�¸�¹�¸ 113 º ¯

349 º ¯ WN2Ab¿¾ Ê�Ù ¶�·�¸�¹�¸ 132 º ¯ 286 ºµ���� ¼

Fig. 8¶

300hPa5 Û ëµñ �^g C ô&¾�Q Ù�Ø�ÚRS50V µ6��� ¼ FLATA#b7¾ ÊÙ ¯�g C ô¿¾���� � ¶�W�Xg C�ÒÓ µ��P� ¼ High

Î�µ�¶�¯d � 35��à6á ­

55��àP῾20&¾ � �>ò�µ C ô q�Y � ¯ � � ùvú Û�ô

� ¾�Ë�� ª q 20Þ(Z�*S��[(\ m¿Ú"]�S80 ×6Ø&È&® ˵� ¼ Low

Î�Û�¶�d � 45�à�á�µ C ô q(Y � ¯ � �ù¿ú Û�ô � ¾+Ë�� ª q 10�µ���� k�Ù(^^m&Ú�]�S80 ×Ø[È[® ËS� ¼ .�» HighÎ�Û�Ü, Ú�]_S50 ¾#ý ����¿µ�ô � ¾ k�` Å q �;��Ë ¼

WN1A#b&¾ ÊÙ ¶ FLAT

Ab¿Û�Ü�, � �Ý�Þ�þq �>���^Y6� ¼ High

¯Low

Î[­)Ü)Û 4�5�7 �7¾/a ISJß&Û ú I ,cb 5 Û��»P� � � 180�#à�á�µ C ô q Ü�_­)Ü Y Ë ¼ High

Î�µ¶ � �ÝÞ�þ q ����� ¯ Ú�]dST0�/&¶�±�/&Û ]K�eW�;åý � �"�¿Û k¿f0 ® ë TÒ¯ ��315

�;��» T?µ�¶�d � 65��à�á�Û^ç��*U� ¼ .�»d �è 30

��¯ � � 2709 360�à�á[Û7Ü^ô ��q ËP�­�Y_ ˵�MÃ�Ä q Þ�Z´® ë T ¯"["\ m¿Ú�]_S80 ×Ø q 3 J ¸S� ¼�Ò ù ¯ Low

Î�Û ë Ë ¶�¯�ô � 25m/sg ð ¾^Ã�Ä q *, ¾ � �[Û�Þ�Z´® ¯F·¾ � �&¶�d �40��àáÉ­ � �#ÝÞ�þ q�Ô � � ¯�Õ�Ö&Û+á�Ë�×�Ø�È7® Ë;� ¼ Ë�ÄvÛ�¶�gô&¾�Ã�Ä q Þ�Z-® ë TÒ¯ FLATAb ­�� Ó Û High

ÎSRµT=Ü Ú/]_S50 ¾#ý � ���¿µ�ô� ¾ k(` Å q �µ�>��Y_ Ë�� ¼ High

­Low

ξ+�

Page 6: Meteorology Research Group · VaJ Ä ~ Ö^ 0` .a (z ³ V (Ambaum et al. 2001) y.|g O8P/J! Ü|Ý æ5J b m _.|Ô5Õ X8ZQ£ c.d,e JG / f ÷ 6à¢R/s8 Q .g h ¾âfúue,iFj Ô-Õ 3PuJ

Fig. 8: Compositemapof the intensity of zonalwind at 300hPa for High or Low periodof PC1of thezonalmean

zonalwind andtheir difference;FLAT(top),WN1(middle)andWN2(bottom) experiments.(Left) time meanin days

whenPC1is greaterthanor equalto 1.5±

, (Center)whenPC1is lessthanor equalto é à ì î ± and(Right) difference

betweenHigh andLow. Shadedareashows regionwherethezonalwind is greaterthanor equalto 25m/s.

È[­��¿­ 7 �v¾�ßvÛ6��»�� � � 270��àPá7µ[Ü�_v­

Ü�� q �;��Ë ¼ �Y¸¿¶ Ú/]_S50 ¾�°Rh�à�á�µ�¾ Ú�]_S0 ¾+ç>��¾ � �[¾ ê Ë7Û>R� ¼

WN2Ab¿¾ Ê�Ù ¶ Ú�]_S50 ��/ q g C Û 2

0&Û�¬I ¸ Þ"Z´® Ë�� ¼ High

Î�Û ë Ë Ü+_�­�Ü Ú�]dS0 ¾ Y Ë � �[¶�¯ WN1

A�b´­)¶�i�Y�T,4P57 �[¾

ß[¾i­"��j�µP� T㯠� � 135� ë R�O 315

��à6á�µ�>� ¼ WN1

A6b[¾High

ÎÕ­�� Ó Û�¯ Ú�]�S50 ��/¶�±/[Û�]%�W�;^ý � �iÛ kP¿10 ®�¯P°�håà�á&¾ �

�180

� ë R�O 360��àPá&µ�¶�d � 55

�+Û�ç���*� ¼6Ò ù ¯ Low

Î�µ�¶�¯ Ú�]_SU0zq ° Ü Y Ë � �[¶�¯High

Î>R�TFÜ è 30� C Û��Tã¯�a I�J ß¿Û ú I ,kb5 Û��»>�

90� ë R+O 270

��à�á�µ���� ¼ ·�¸[ÛelË Ú�]:S80 ¾°�hH¶ HighÎ�R�THÜ C Û�­"mÕ® Ë>� ¼.» Ú�]nSU0 ¾+ç���*U� � �[¶�¯ High

Î&Û�Ü�, ��#Ý�Þ�þ q�Ô � � ¯�d � 40�#à�á�µ���� ¼ WN1

A�b­+� Ó Û�¯^ËÄvÛ�¶+gô&¾�Ã�Ä q Þ(Z´®�¯ Ú�]_S80 ¾ý � �"��µ�ô � ¾ k"` Å q �µ�)Ë ¼ High

­Low

Î�¾

Page 7: Meteorology Research Group · VaJ Ä ~ Ö^ 0` .a (z ³ V (Ambaum et al. 2001) y.|g O8P/J! Ü|Ý æ5J b m _.|Ô5Õ X8ZQ£ c.d,e JG / f ÷ 6à¢R/s8 Q .g h ¾âfúue,iFj Ô-Õ 3PuJ

Fig. 9: Time meanof surfacepressure(contours) andvariance(grayscale;only in (b) and(c) panels.) in (a)FLAT,

(b)WN1 and(c)WN2 experiments.Gray scaleshows the region wherevarianceof surfacepressureis greaterthan

12çpo�å � andinterval of grayscaleis 2

çpo�å � .

Fig. 10: 1-pointcorrelationmapin (a)FLAT, (b)WN1 and(c)WN2 experiments.Somepairsof pointsthathave the

strongestnegative correlationareshown by symbolX andconnectedby a thin line.

Fig. 11: Correlationmapfor theindex which is explainedin text in (a)FLAT, (b)WN1and(c)WN2experiments.

Page 8: Meteorology Research Group · VaJ Ä ~ Ö^ 0` .a (z ³ V (Ambaum et al. 2001) y.|g O8P/J! Ü|Ý æ5J b m _.|Ô5Õ X8ZQ£ c.d,e JG / f ÷ 6à¢R/s8 Q .g h ¾âfúue,iFj Ô-Õ 3PuJ

�¿È¿­���­�¯WN1

A#bÕ­�� Ó Û 7 ��¾�ß&¾ � ��µ���#Y ê Ë q �6� ¼ »�Q+® WN1Ab�µ�¶�d �è 40

�­ è 70

�[µ(�¿¾��6� ª q �S� I _�» q ¯ WN2A�b

µ�¶�d �è 35�´­ è 60

�¿µ+�6� ª q �S�>� ¯ WN1Ab&¾�Ú�Û RµT)Ün� � �/�vÛ��6� ¼3.3 1 q(rMs�È�É

EOF1Û ë Ë "t � 2 u>q ��Î�Ï&µP��_ Ü�¯·¾

2 u Ï�¾��T� q ý�Ë ­)¶Å J Y�Ë (Ambaumet al.

2001)¼ ·T�)µ j Â�QevRw k�x�Ù 9S=)Å Ù Èey;°�*U�z Û ®M{�¸�»1 u �M� [\ (WallaceandGutzler1981)È�]S_�» ¼.+|

Ps¾�ÎÏ ø�ó Ê ­�¬�7¾ Ó/} È�3 ë � (Fig.

9)¼ FLATA�b7¾ ÊÙ ¾�ÎÏ ø�ó Ê ¶#��~���Ö�µ��ST ¯

� �´­�­�Ü�Û ª q�Ô � �+Y>��¾�Û�� ®�¯ WN1¯

WN2A�b[¾ Ê6Ù ¶�¯ 4P5�7 �+È�ÍH� ® g C�Ñ6ÒÓ µ>�TÒ¯ 7 ��¾�a�Û7���+*S� � ��µ¶ ª q � � ¯^ß&Û7���*U� � �&µ�¶ ª q ýË ¼ ¬��&¶�¯ WN1Ab7µ�¶�¯�Ë

Ä IîJ 7 �v¾�ßv¾#d��+Û I�ñ ���Y ª È��S_ Ë� ¼6Ò ù ¯ WN2Ab¿¾ Ê�Ù ¶�¯�ß¿¾�d"�[¾ 2 �e� µ�>��Y ª È�Ü Ð ¯ Ë¿¶�� u ­^Y#_ Ë�� ¼ �?¸ J ¾�¬� q ����Y[­��(j�¶ ð ü��/6ö+ C ô Ú�]:ST0 ¾�°�h¾�d"��ÄvÛ���»µ�

(Fig. 8 ��� ) ¼Ps¾

1 u �T� [�\ È ë ��YP,�­H¯ FLATA�b[¾ Ê

Ù ¶ Fig. 10(a)¾�R8,�Û�d � 55

�à�á�¾ � �Pòÿ­�ËÄ-­=¾Ï�µ����T��¾��� q 3 J ¸�¯�·�¾"���R�7È�Ü0#ÃPÄ q W�X�g C�ÒÓ Û�Þ/Z ® ËS� ¼ ·�¸vÛ��Ö® WN1

¯WN2

Ab7¾ ÊÙ ¶�g CÑ�Ò�Ó þ q ����Ë ¼WN1

A#b7µ�¶�¯#ý � � ­�Ì � �¿Ï�¾+����� q ý�Ë�ÃÄ q 270�iÈ�Ì�~�Û�g C Û�¾#O Þ"Z ® ˵� (Fig.

10(b))¼ .�»�¯M�=¾��7¾#ý � ���¿¾�Ã6Ä¿¶�Ë+È�â T ãË ë TÒ¯Ü�_�­�Ü ª q ý�Ë u ¶�ËvÛ�áË ¼ .�»��7¾� � �(�¿¾^Ã�Ä&¶�d ��è 40��µ6��� ¼�Ò ù ¯ WN2

Ab�µ�¶�¯�ý�Ë(�"�M��¾��e�+È�Ü 0�Ã�Ä&¾�� q�� � 170� ë R�O 350

��à�á�¾2 �7� Û�Þ�ZÖ® Ë ë T (Fig.

10(c))�·�¾ � � ù¿ú ¾��7¶Å J ¸ ˵� ¼ ·�¸ J ¾Ã�Äv¾ � �i¶�¯ Ps

¾�¬6� q ���;� ð ü6�6/�ö Ú�]nS0 ¾�°Rh�Ä&¾���� � �´­7W�X��;�Yµ6�6� ¼ .�» ,

·�¾Ã�Ä¿¾6Ì~7¶�d �#è 65

�Õ­ è 30��µ��HTÒ¯

WN1A

b¿¾�Ú�Û+Û�Ü�, � � �+Û��îTÒ¯�ý � ���v¾�ÃPÄi¶Ë+Èe��Gµ�Ë6Y�Ë ¼L Û�¯�° Ü�ý�Ë/���T��¾���ÿÈ�Ü�0 2 u È�â�T^°®�¯�·�¸�¹�¸ u ¾ Ps

¾�8¼õ�¬[Èe�/���Ö®?¯#ý � ��v¾ u ¾ ª I J � � ���i¾ ª È���Ë7»¿Ü�¾7È��³ ­® Ý(�-®?¯�·�¾+�#³Ö­d��� }�u ð µ¾ Ps­H¾���

È7���Õ®�»(Fig. 11)¼ FLAT

A#b7¾ ÊÙ ¾��M��9µ==ÅÙ ¶�¯�Ë�Ä´­H·�¸iÈ�â�TWã���Ì � ��ÄÖ­ q Í6��Î>ÏÈ7Ü�0�Õ�ÖµY�9S=�Å Ù µ��îTÒ¯ EOF1(Fig.4(a))

¾�9

=)Å Ù ­d� ˵� ¼ WN1A#b&¾ ÊÙ ¾����9�=�Å ÙÜ ÕÖ¿Û�áH� ¯

EOF1¾�9µ==Å Ù (Fig. 4(b))

­d� Ë� ¼Ò ù ¯ WN2

A�b�¾ ÊÙ ¶�¯�g C ù¿ú ¾�M� q ÅJ ¸¿»�� � ûPY�c6d���Ë } ×>ØiÈ[® ËS� ¼ .» �� è 170

� ë R�O è 350�¿¾

207¾ýË����R�+Ã�Ä

µ�·�¸�¹�¸�Ý�� ®Y»207¾�#³¿¾�����¶

0.17µ6��TÒ¯

20�¾ Ú/]�S-0 ¾�°Rh"ÄvÛ ëµñ ��8¼&¶� © ® Ë�YËT�7­)È7>-® Ë;� ¼

4 �M�+���7���

FLATAb7¾ ÊÙ ¯�» © 8¼7¾ Ó �¿¶ � � ù¿ú Û"WX ÒÓ µP�îT ¯ý � �6ÄÖ­�Ì � �6Ä[¾�Ï�µ����T��¾���ÉÈ7Ü+0�8¼ q('�) ® ËS� ¼ EOF

[�\ ­���� [\ ¾�Ú6Ûv¶+­�Ü�Û�¿»�Õ6Ö�9S=�Å Ù µ��îT ¯#Õ�ÖP8¼ q ���>Y�8¼õ�¬�µ�����­�Ë��6� ¼

WN1A#b�¯

WN2Ab7µ¶�¯¿­�Ü�Û

Ps¾

EOF1¶

ÕÖ�µ���� q ¯���/6ö¾� C ô Ú�]�S80 �/7¾�×6Ø é1 u ��� V YT;=¶ � �Ý6Þ�þ q �;��Ë ¼ WN1

A�b7µ¶

Ps¾�¬� q �S��Y+­(�"j�¶ 1 �7� Q ñ µP�UT Ë�ÄÈ��8G�µËU� ¼ 1 u �T� [P\ ¾�Ú�Ûi¶�c6d���Ë } 9=�Å Ù È7>�* Ü�¾�¾�¯(�T��¾ýË�ÃPÄ[¶���Ë � �PòÛ ë R�G�µ�Ë�� ¼ Ü+_�­�Ün�(�M� q ý�Ë 2 u ¾��¼&È4 *���³ÉÈ�Ý��-®Y¯·7¾��³ È����´­�®F»(�R� V ¶

EOF1¾�9S=�Å Ù ­d� Õ�Ö&µP�6� ¼�Ò ù ¯ WN2

Ab�µ�¶�¯

Ps¾�¬��¿¾��S�#Y+­���j q 2 �7� � T ¯·¾ � ��ò q Å J ¸ ˵� ¼ �?¸�¶ ×�0 Å�� 0 : S w q

20�¾ Ú/]�S-0 ¾�°Rh"ÄvÛ�·�¸�¹�¸�õ � ¸ Ë;���­�Û(�P� ¼ 1 u �M� [�\ È ] ,)­?¯)·�¸ J 2

07¾ � �ò7µ���Z/� ®H»#c�d ùiú ¾���Ë } 9�=�Å Ù�q�¡%J ¸� ¼ .�»M��¸ J ¾�Ã�Ä7Ï�¾��M��¶7�K� ¯�8�¼&¶� © ® Ë6Y�Ë ¼ �)¾��(�[¶ WN1Ab7¾�Ú�ÛÕ­�iPYHT ¯�8

¼¿¾#���#Y�Ã�Ä q 1 ��� µ�ËÿÈ7�TG�µ�Ë�� I ¯ WN2Ab7µ¶�8¼7¾�����Y+Ã�Ä q 2 �n� µ���TzËiÈ¢�MG�µË�Y�Ë I ­�Ë1, ê Ë q�� �7µ�����­��S� J ¸U� ¼�?¸ J¾Ò�£ ¾�A#b�Û�R�T㯠465�7 ��¾ ê Ë�Û�R�_ Õ#Ö�8#¼�¾Fþ�¤7Û��>��Y ê Ë q�¥HJ ¸;�/��­ q ¬ I _» ¼ 7 �[¾��>�PQ ñ µ�Y��H·�¾�g C �ÞÉÛ>R�_ ÜÕ�ÖP8�¼¿¾�A�¦[¶��S�;��i�Y�_ Ë�� ¼ 7 �v¾ ê ËÛ�RµT§ C ô Ú�]:S80 �/ é ר0 Å�� 0 : S w�¾ � �×PØ q 8"� ®Y¯���Î�Û��/��©UY�» © 8¼[¾"ª&Ï�×PØÜ�8"�Ö® Ë;� ¼« A6���iÛ ë Ë ¯d�e f µ7¶����/©Ua�¬ q Þ/Z®?¯�8¼�¾�����Y��/6ö Ú�]_S80 �/&¾°�h"Ä q � C­ ­d® ø ­ ¾2 �¢� Û+Þ"Z�*S� ¼�Ò ù ¯�c�e f ¶�¯ ­

q W&­_GR;?µ�¯¾de f Û�Ü#, 7 � q ø�a µ���=¾�µ�¯��/Pö Ú�]_SU0 �6/�¾�g C�Ñ�ÒÓ þ q Ü/°�û Ô � Ë ¼7 �[Û6R#�e±�²��"©6�¼7¾e³�´[Èe�µ���7­�¯FLAT

A

Page 9: Meteorology Research Group · VaJ Ä ~ Ö^ 0` .a (z ³ V (Ambaum et al. 2001) y.|g O8P/J! Ü|Ý æ5J b m _.|Ô5Õ X8ZQ£ c.d,e JG / f ÷ 6à¢R/s8 Q .g h ¾âfúue,iFj Ô-Õ 3PuJ

b&¾ ÊÙ�q c6e f ¾�Ö/µ[Û�á � ¯ WN2Ab&¾ Ê�Ù>qd6e f ¾�Ö�µ¿Û�á�Ë ­:��� J ¸�� ¼

¶�·�¸�¹

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Roleof topography on annular variability— Numerical experiment—

SeiyaNISHIZAWA andShigeoYODEN

Departmentof GeophysicsÄ Kyoto University

Synopsis

Role of surfacetopographyon the annularvariability of mid- and high-latitude troposphereis examinedby

numericalexperimentswith an idealizedgeneralcirculationmodelundera perpetualwinter condition. Long time

integrationsaredonefor 3 casesof thesurfacetopography(flat surface,sinusoidal topographyof zonalwavenumber1

or 2), andeachof 4,000-daydatais analyzed.Dependingon thesurfacetopography, thecharacteristicsof jet streams

andstormtracksaredifferent,aswell asthenatureof annularvariability.

Keywords: annularvariabirity; generalcirculation; low frequency variability; surfacetopography