methods and tools - ipcc tar wgii (chapter 2) gary yohe professor of economics wesleyan university...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Methods and Tools - IPCC TAR WGII (Chapter 2) Gary Yohe Professor of Economics Wesleyan University June 11, 2001](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649ddf5503460f94ad8065/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Methods and Tools - IPCC TAR WGII (Chapter 2)
Gary Yohe
Professor of Economics
Wesleyan University
June 11, 2001
![Page 2: Methods and Tools - IPCC TAR WGII (Chapter 2) Gary Yohe Professor of Economics Wesleyan University June 11, 2001](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649ddf5503460f94ad8065/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
QUESTIONS RAISED IN THE CHAPTER
• Detecting the current effects of climate change (and climate variability)
• Anticipating, estimating, and integrating future effects of climate change (and climate variability)
• Valuing and costing impacts and adaptations
• Expressing and characterizing uncertainties
• Reflecting appropriate frameworks for decision-making.
![Page 3: Methods and Tools - IPCC TAR WGII (Chapter 2) Gary Yohe Professor of Economics Wesleyan University June 11, 2001](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649ddf5503460f94ad8065/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
The Vulnerability Context of Adaptive Capacity
• Vulnerability (a vector V) is a function of exposure (to multiple stresses - a vector E), sensitivity (a similarly dimensioned vector S), and adaptive capacity (A); so:
V = F{ E(A); S(A) }
• Adaptive capacity may be quantified to a scalor, but it has multiple determinants Di :
A = AC {D1 , ……, D8 }
![Page 4: Methods and Tools - IPCC TAR WGII (Chapter 2) Gary Yohe Professor of Economics Wesleyan University June 11, 2001](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649ddf5503460f94ad8065/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
The Determinants of Adaptive Capacity
• Range of adaptation options
• Availability and distribution of resources
• Structure of institutions and decision-making processes
• Stock and distribution of human capital
• Stock of social capital
• Access to risk spreading processes and mechanisms
• Ability to process information and the credibility of decisions
• Public perception of exposure, sensitivity and attribution
![Page 5: Methods and Tools - IPCC TAR WGII (Chapter 2) Gary Yohe Professor of Economics Wesleyan University June 11, 2001](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649ddf5503460f94ad8065/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Site Specificity and Path Dependence - The Scale of Determinants
• Applicable options are determined on a micro scale, but the list of possibilities may come from macro-scale processes like this one
• The next 5 determinants have macro-scale roots, but micro-scale manifestations:
Resources and their distribution
Institutional structure; decision-making
Human capital
Social capital
Access to risk spreading
![Page 6: Methods and Tools - IPCC TAR WGII (Chapter 2) Gary Yohe Professor of Economics Wesleyan University June 11, 2001](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649ddf5503460f94ad8065/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Scale Considerations, Continued
• Information management may have macro-scale foundations, but it has fundamental micro-scale import.
• Public perception of attribution should similarly be determined on a micro-scale even if there are influences from outside and potential sources of information have a macro scale. The issue is credibility and when micro-scale actors look for credible information.
![Page 7: Methods and Tools - IPCC TAR WGII (Chapter 2) Gary Yohe Professor of Economics Wesleyan University June 11, 2001](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649ddf5503460f94ad8065/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Implications for the Adaptation Methods and the Policy Framework
• The local implications of macro-scale determinants are their most important characteristics, and working the links across scales can add clout by expanding the scope of influence.
• The effects of most if not all of the determinants of adaptive capacity can be traced through their implications for specific adaptation options.
• Assessing overall vulnerability through organized and determinant-based considerations of the abilities of available options to influence sensitivity or exposure could be a very effective foundation for a methods and policy frameworks.
![Page 8: Methods and Tools - IPCC TAR WGII (Chapter 2) Gary Yohe Professor of Economics Wesleyan University June 11, 2001](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649ddf5503460f94ad8065/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Adaptation Options and Coping Capacity
• The critical link in each context can be the definition of thresholds that define the boundaries of coping capacity against variability in the local environment.
• It follows that exploring how each option might be able to change those thresholds or variability to influence exposure and/or sensitivity is critical.
• The roles of other determinants in impeding or enhancing those abilities must also be recognized.
• And systematic interactions across determinants and adaptation options cannot be ignored.
![Page 9: Methods and Tools - IPCC TAR WGII (Chapter 2) Gary Yohe Professor of Economics Wesleyan University June 11, 2001](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649ddf5503460f94ad8065/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Returning to the Questions
• Detection informs our understanding about exposure and sensitivity.
• Anticipation, estimation and integration of future effects does the same:
Anticipation takes detection into the future to
identify stresses.
Estimation adds detail to characterizations of the future.
Integration brings the interactions of multiple stresses into focus.
![Page 10: Methods and Tools - IPCC TAR WGII (Chapter 2) Gary Yohe Professor of Economics Wesleyan University June 11, 2001](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649ddf5503460f94ad8065/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Integrating Multiple Stresses
• Some stresses have common sources - another place where macro scale processes can be identified and exploited.
• Other stresses have different sources, but are they positively or negatively correlated? Or are they independent?
• Looking endogenously for anthropogenic sources can highlight new suites of adaptive options.
![Page 11: Methods and Tools - IPCC TAR WGII (Chapter 2) Gary Yohe Professor of Economics Wesleyan University June 11, 2001](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649ddf5503460f94ad8065/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
More on the questions
• Valuation and costing impacts and adaptations play into evaluations of options, but currency is not necessarily the only metric:
Schneider’s 5 metrics: monetary loss, human life
quality of life, loss of species and bioversity, and
(in)equity and the distribution of well-being;
and both can play a role in assessing the significance of resource availability and their distribution.
![Page 12: Methods and Tools - IPCC TAR WGII (Chapter 2) Gary Yohe Professor of Economics Wesleyan University June 11, 2001](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649ddf5503460f94ad8065/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
More on the questions
• Uncertainty plays a role in:
Institutions - how do they cope with uncertainty?
The significance and structure of risk spreading mechanisms.
Decision-makers and public perception - how do the players sort the signal from the noise?
![Page 13: Methods and Tools - IPCC TAR WGII (Chapter 2) Gary Yohe Professor of Economics Wesleyan University June 11, 2001](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649ddf5503460f94ad8065/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Uncertainty and Coping Capacity
• Looking at climate variability provides “early warning” to “not-implausible futures” and abrupt impacts of climate change.
• Focusing on the ability of adaptation options to manipulate the coping capacity as well as variability offers a way to include uncertainty into the analysis.
• This is the link that brings short-term planning horizons into the context of long-term stresses like climate change.
![Page 14: Methods and Tools - IPCC TAR WGII (Chapter 2) Gary Yohe Professor of Economics Wesleyan University June 11, 2001](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649ddf5503460f94ad8065/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Uncertainty and Analysts
• Notwithstanding our considerable abilities, the output of the impact and adaptation analysis and/or a Policy Framework must be cast in terms of underlying uncertainty:
Ranges of possible outputs.
Representations of multiple moments.
Consideration of robustness in assessment
and adaptation.
![Page 15: Methods and Tools - IPCC TAR WGII (Chapter 2) Gary Yohe Professor of Economics Wesleyan University June 11, 2001](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649ddf5503460f94ad8065/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
More on the questions
• Understanding of decision analytic frameworks and their local, path dependent application informs our understanding of:
Institutions
Human and social capital
Positive and normative analysis of risk spreading
mechanisms
![Page 16: Methods and Tools - IPCC TAR WGII (Chapter 2) Gary Yohe Professor of Economics Wesleyan University June 11, 2001](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649ddf5503460f94ad8065/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Topic Organization of Chapter 2
• Detection (species and managed systems)
• Anticipating change
• Integrated assessment
• Cost and valuation methods
• Representing uncertainty
• Decision-analytic frameworks
![Page 17: Methods and Tools - IPCC TAR WGII (Chapter 2) Gary Yohe Professor of Economics Wesleyan University June 11, 2001](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649ddf5503460f94ad8065/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Questions versus Sections in Chapter 2
Sections DetectionFuture Assess & Integrate
Value & Cost Uncertainty
DecisionFramework
Detection: Species Managed
XXX XXX
Anticipate XXX XXX
IntegratedAssessment XXX XXX XXX XXX
Cost & ValueMethods XXX XXX XXX
Uncertainty XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX
DAF XXX XXX
![Page 18: Methods and Tools - IPCC TAR WGII (Chapter 2) Gary Yohe Professor of Economics Wesleyan University June 11, 2001](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649ddf5503460f94ad8065/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Topics: Detection
• There are two questions of attribution:
Anthropogenic forces are changing the climate
Climate change is have an impact
• Fingerprint argument based on global congruence - a basis of considerable controversy.
• Still, for present purposes, the second attribution critical for framing adaptation.
• Nonetheless, the first attribution important in evaluating future.
![Page 19: Methods and Tools - IPCC TAR WGII (Chapter 2) Gary Yohe Professor of Economics Wesleyan University June 11, 2001](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649ddf5503460f94ad8065/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Anticipating Future Impacts
• Scenarios define baselines and define scales.
This is perhaps backwards for adaptation work.
• Integration in Chapter 2 tends to focus on feedbacks and the role that vulnerability pays in pushing mitigation.
This is not the type of integration needed here.
• Attention is nonetheless drawn to climate variability and extremes.
Exactly, and the link to adaptive capacity made.
Focus attention on variability, thresholds, coping
capacity and abrupt impacts of climate change.
![Page 20: Methods and Tools - IPCC TAR WGII (Chapter 2) Gary Yohe Professor of Economics Wesleyan University June 11, 2001](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649ddf5503460f94ad8065/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Integrated Assessment
• Integrated assessment broadly defined is not necessarily linear from beginning to end.
IA methods can help with
multiple stresses (their common sources and/or
diversity)
interactions of adaptation options
delineating the operative scales of determinants
the definition of location specifics and path
dependence.
![Page 21: Methods and Tools - IPCC TAR WGII (Chapter 2) Gary Yohe Professor of Economics Wesleyan University June 11, 2001](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649ddf5503460f94ad8065/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Cost and valuation methods
• All concepts are based on the notion of opportunity cost.• This foundation can accommodate multiple metrics.• Costing methods can provide some answers and insights, but
not all; e.g., the cost and sources of inequity.• Other initiatives on quantifying monetary estimates of non-
market impacts (through direct and indirect methods) may not be widely applicable.
• This means that cost-benefit analysis is not the only game in town. Ultimately, though, there needs to be some assessment of tradeoffs across values attached to specific metrics….
![Page 22: Methods and Tools - IPCC TAR WGII (Chapter 2) Gary Yohe Professor of Economics Wesleyan University June 11, 2001](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649ddf5503460f94ad8065/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
This is the ultimate context for opportunity cost. This is the ultimate
context for opportunity cost.
This is the ultimate context for opportunity cost.
![Page 23: Methods and Tools - IPCC TAR WGII (Chapter 2) Gary Yohe Professor of Economics Wesleyan University June 11, 2001](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649ddf5503460f94ad8065/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Uncertainty
Sources of Uncertainty:
Missing data or errors in data and noise.
Random sampling error and/or selection bias.
Known processes with unknown functional forms.
Known structures but unknown parameters.
Structural change over time.
Ambiguous concepts or techniques.
Spatial or temporal scale mismatches.
Humans.
![Page 24: Methods and Tools - IPCC TAR WGII (Chapter 2) Gary Yohe Professor of Economics Wesleyan University June 11, 2001](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649ddf5503460f94ad8065/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Cascading Uncertainty
• This is a widely accepted notion that integration across multiple systems amplifies uncertainty.
• Adaptation based analysis from second attribution short-circuits some of the cascade……as long as adaptive capacity analyses consider the robustness of that capacity and the derivative vulnerability across a range of “not-implausible” scenarios regardless of attributed probabilities (these may not be known; and the tails might be wide).
![Page 25: Methods and Tools - IPCC TAR WGII (Chapter 2) Gary Yohe Professor of Economics Wesleyan University June 11, 2001](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649ddf5503460f94ad8065/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Decision Analytic Frameworks
• Highlights formal distinctions between:
Cost-benefit criteria.
Precautionary criteria.
Broad-based decision analysis.
Risk analysis.
Cost-effectiveness.
Policy exercises.
Adaptive capacity focus suggests that local specificity and path dependence determine the DAG
![Page 26: Methods and Tools - IPCC TAR WGII (Chapter 2) Gary Yohe Professor of Economics Wesleyan University June 11, 2001](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649ddf5503460f94ad8065/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Take-Home Messages
• Multiple tools exist, but they may not be fully adept at handling adaptation/impacts analysis.
• While macro-scale processes work in most if not all parts of the world, micro-scale processes are critical; and they may not fit any specific context.
• Nonetheless, there will be common insights, common frustrations, and common methodology.
![Page 27: Methods and Tools - IPCC TAR WGII (Chapter 2) Gary Yohe Professor of Economics Wesleyan University June 11, 2001](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649ddf5503460f94ad8065/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Let many flowers bloom, and
convene periodically to compare notes, share “war stories”, and otherwise
collaborate without the requirement of producing a “comprehensive document.