metropolitan vision making – using backcasting as a strategic learning process to shape...
DESCRIPTION
The presentation is based on a conference article by Aleksi Neuvonen and professor Peter Ache (Radboud University Nijmegen) and it was held at Urban Futures - Squaring Circles 2050: Europe, China and the World conference in Lisbon on October 11th 2014. It revisits the Greater Helsinki Vision 2050 process in 2006-2009 and evaluates it from the perspectives of backcasting scenarios and strategic learning.TRANSCRIPT
Metropolitan vision making – using backcasting as strategic learning process to
shape metropolitan futuresUrban Futures Squaring the Circles 2050 – Europe, China and the Rest of the World
October 10th -11th
Aleksi NeuvonenDemos Helsinki/Radboud University [email protected]: @leksis
Prof Peter AcheRadboud University Nijmegen [email protected]
1.The challenge: Entering the era of metropolitan spaces
2.The context: Helsinki metropolitan region
3.Greater Helsinki Vision 2050 ideas competition & follow-up process
4.Backcasting method
5.GHV2050 as a backcasting process
6.Conclusions
Urban mega-structures
Coalitions around ‘visionary field’
Competitiveness
Wicked problems
Incrementalism with perspective
Engaging visioning
Need for tools apt for managing metropolitan futures
Urban structures
Clear governance structures
Social cohesion
Limited, simple problems
Rational, incremental approach
Top-down processes
Helsinki metropolitan region(Europe - Nordic countries - Finland)
14 municipalities, no formal governance structure
Population: 1 400 000 (Finland: 5 410 000)Expected population 2030: 1 650 000GDP per capita: 48 682 €% of pop. with Academic Degree: 45.7
Jury protocol: http://www.safa.fi/document.php?DOC_ID=477&SEC=3b7e84702d5cd67f9d9cc253bb456b30&SID=1
The case
P_EMP /
7These entries were awarded
20502014 20302020
20502050
Future 1
Future 2
Future 3
Future 4
Scenarios
Goals,Boundary conditions, ‘perspective’
Method: Backcasting scenario process
Decisions
Unexpected events
Promising practices
DriversLong-term
trends
Incremental stepsSlow implementation processes
Method: Backcasting timeline technique (counting backwards)
Greater Helsinki Vision 2050 and its follow-up process were not scenario exercises. However, we tried to analyze the process as an exercise of backcasting scenario approach that included a notion on acceptable futures and description on step-by-step change.
Backcasting 1: soft space initiatives and timelines (ideas competition)
Backcasting 2: learning through evaluation of radical ideas distilled from competition entries
(follow-up process)
Backcasting 3: platform for a coalition, vision and a new plan (the current 14 municipality planning process)
20502014 20402025
Long-term structural plan
Implementation plan
Vision for implementation
Metropolitan council elections (National government decision in 2014)
2017
Helsinki region cooperation process: http://www.helsinginseutu.fi/hki/HS/The+Region+of+Helsinki/Cooperation+in+the+region
Conclusions1. The need to expand the problem solving capacity beyond existing
governance structures and its incumbent experts is there.
2. Open processes are needed; ‘vision’ and ‘backcasting’ are tools for searching out-of-the-box solutions
3. ‘Emancipatory backcasting’ can bring about strategic learning on new constraints and emerging opportunities.
4. Planning processes in metropolitan contexts are complex and require engaging different levels of institutions and stakeholders. Vision can help in coordinating this action and creating ownership to implementation.
5. Incrementalism with perspective approach should be considered as an alternative to naive utopian blue-printing and cynical, vision-less muddling through.