Impacts of sex offender residency restrictions p yon the availability of affordable rental housing 

in Miami‐Dade Countyin Miami Dade County

Paul ZandbergenDepartment of GeographyU i it f N M i

Timothy HartDepartment of Criminal JusticeU i it f N d L VUniversity of New Mexico University of Nevada, Las Vegas

Sex Offender Residency RestrictionsSex Offender Residency Restrictions

• Limit where sex offenders can live– Schools, daycares, parks, bus stops

Distances vary from 500 to 3 000 feet– Distances vary from 500 to 3,000 feet

• Adopted by 30 States and 100s of local jurisdictions

• Benefit to reducing recidivism unproven• Negative consequences are well documented• Negative consequences are well documented

Ordinances in FloridaOrdinances in Florida

24 Counties 142 Municipalities

Miami’s ShantytownMiami s Shantytown

As many as 100 convicted sex offenders resided under the Julia Tuttle Causeway

Purpose of Current StudyPurpose of Current Study

A l h i f ll id i i• Analyze the impact of all residency restrictions on the availability of affordable housing

Scenarios – state/county/local

Spatial patterns – variation by community

Note: study commissioned by the Greater Miami Chapter of the American Civil Liberties Union

MethodologyMethodology

Restriction Zones

1. Inventory of ordinances2 Parcel level mapping of locations of interestZones 2. Parcel‐level mapping of locations of interest3. Mapping restriction zones

AffordableHousing

4. Parcel‐level housing cost‐model5. Calibrate based on actually available rentalsHousing 5. Calibrate based on actually available rentals

Combination 6. Overlay restrictions zones with housingCombination 6. Overlay restrictions zones with housing

Inventory of OrdinancesInventory of Ordinances

Inventory of OrdinancesInventory of Ordinances

Locations of InterestLocations of Interest

schools daycares parks school bus stops

Parcel geocoded and validated against orthophotos

n = 1,841 ‐ 89% geocoded n = 742 ‐ 99% geocoded n = 38,882n = 1,142 ‐ 99% geocoded

Parcel geocoded and validated against orthophotos

ScenariosScenariosWithout public school bus stops 1. State 1,000 feetWithout public school bus stops 1. State 1,000 feet

2. State 1,500 feet3. State 1,000 feet + Miami‐Dade4 State 1 000 feet + local4. State 1,000 feet + local5. State 1,000 feet + Miami‐Dade + local

With public school bus stops 6. State 1,000 feetWith public school bus stops 6. State 1,000 feet7. State 1,500 feet8. State 1,000 feet + Miami‐Dade9 State 1 000 feet + local9. State 1,000 feet + local10. State 1,000 feet + Miami‐Dade + local

Without public school bus 11. State 1,000 ft + localpstops for State + County andwith public school bus stopsfor local as applicable

,12. State 1,000 ft + Miami‐Dade + local

for local as applicable

Restriction ZonesRestriction ZonesScenario 1 Scenario 10

State 1,000 feet, no public school bus stops

State 1,000 feet + County + local, with public school bus stops

Individual Housing Unit ModelIndividual Housing Unit Model1,042,572 tax assessment records1,042,572 tax assessment records

All housing unitsRent vs. ownMonthly cost

11, 361 rentals in January 2009

Monthly cost

$600,000

$500,000

$400,000

($)

$300,000

ssm

ent V

alue

$200,000Tax

Ass

e

y = 193 45x - 45411

$100,000

y 193.45x 45411R2 = 0.7832

$-$- $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500

Monthly Rent ($)

Field Validation of MLSField Validation of MLS

Multiple Listings Service does underestimate availability of low‐cost rental units, but not in low‐density suburban 

and fringe areas outside of restriction zones

Affordable Housing Units (< $1 250)Affordable Housing Units (< $1,250)

Scenario Total Rentals

No restrictions 406,504 270,874No restrictions 406,504 270,874

Count

1. State 1000 feet (no school bus stops) 73,987 44,963

3. State 1000 feet (no school bus stops) + Miami‐Dade 21,508 14,754

11. State 1000 feet (no school bus stops)  + local (school bus stops) 40,762 21,542

12. State 1000 (no school bus stops) + Miami‐Dade + local (school bus stops) 11,198 6,832

Percentage (of the baseline scenario)

1. State 1000 feet 18.20 16.60

3 State 1000 feet (no school bus stops) + Miami Dade 5 29 5 453. State 1000 feet (no school bus stops) + Miami‐Dade 5.29 5.45

11. State 1000 feet (no school bus stops)  + local (school bus stops) 10.03 7.95

12. State 1000 (no school bus stops) + Miami‐Dade + local (school bus stops) 2.75 2.52

Affordable Housing Units (< $1 250)Affordable Housing Units (< $1,250)

Jurisdiction Baseline Scenario 12

Miami 65,711 0

Miami Beach 25,927 0

dHomestead 9,402 349

Unincorporated 83,402 5,445

Total 270,874 6,832

Actually Available Rentals (July 2009)Actually Available Rentals (July 2009)

Scenario  < $750 $751‐ $1,000 $1,001 ‐ $1,250 TotalNo restrictions 203 1,139 1,361 2,703Without public school bus stops1 St t 1 000 f t 23 249 317 5891. State 1,000 feet 23 249 317 5892. State 1,500 feet 7 121 117 2453. State 1,000 feet + Miami‐Dade 2 95 117 2144. State 1,000 feet + local 9 107 141 257,5. State 1,000 feet + Miami‐Dade + local 0 34 43 77With school bus stops6. State 1,000 feet 0 5 18 237 St t 1 500 f t 0 1 1 27. State 1,500 feet 0 1 1 28. State 1,000 feet + Miami‐Dade 0 2 3 59. State 1,000 feet + local 0 1 2 310. State 1,000 feet + Miami‐Dade + local 0 1 2 3,Without school bus stops for State + County and with school bus stops for local as applicable11. State 1,000 ft + local 9 88 126 22312. State 1,000 ft + Miami‐Dade + local 0 15 28 43

Results for January 2009 were very similar.

Actually Available Rentals (July 2009)Actually Available Rentals (July 2009)

Jurisdiction Baseline Scenario 12

Miami 406 0Miami 406 0

Miami Beach 531 0

Homestead 183 9

Unincorporated 724 30

Total 2,703 43

Summary ResultsSummary Results

• Availability of affordable rental housing units reduced to 6, 823, or 2.5% of baseline

• Number of affordable units on the market reducedNumber of affordable units on the market reduced  from 2,703 to 43

• Very uneven spatial distribution, with available units in outlying areasin outlying areas

July 2009

August 2009

October 2009

February 2010

March 2010Florida Senate Bill SB 1284 – 2010

Florida House Bill HB 119 – 2010

Rise (and fall?) of Residency RestrictionsRise (and fall?) of Residency Restrictions

1. Rapid adoption of residency restrictions in South Florida

2. Near‐elimination of affordable housing

3. Outcome of legal challenges and new state law?

4. Current trend towards loitering ordinances

Funding SupportFunding Support

Questions?Questions?

www.paulzandbergen.comwww.aclufl.org/pdfs/SORRStudy.pdf

www.aclufl.org/pdfs/SORRSummaryDeclaration.pdfwww.aclufl.org/tuttle