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Michael D. Goodman, Ph.D. Executive Director, the Public Policy Center Associate Professor of Public Policy UMass Dartmouth Co-Editor, MassBenchmarks Twitter: @Mike_Goodman November 19, 2014 The MA Economy in a Time of Transition: The State of the State

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Page 1: Michael D. Goodman, Ph.D. Executive Director, the Public Policy Center Associate Professor of Public Policy UMass Dartmouth Co-Editor, MassBenchmarks Twitter:

Michael D. Goodman, Ph.D.

Executive Director, the Public Policy CenterAssociate Professor of Public Policy

UMass Dartmouth

Co-Editor, MassBenchmarks

Twitter: @Mike_Goodman

November 19, 2014

The MA Economy in a Time of Transition: The State of the State

Page 2: Michael D. Goodman, Ph.D. Executive Director, the Public Policy Center Associate Professor of Public Policy UMass Dartmouth Co-Editor, MassBenchmarks Twitter:

On the one hand…

Page 3: Michael D. Goodman, Ph.D. Executive Director, the Public Policy Center Associate Professor of Public Policy UMass Dartmouth Co-Editor, MassBenchmarks Twitter:

Corporate profits have never been higher

Page 4: Michael D. Goodman, Ph.D. Executive Director, the Public Policy Center Associate Professor of Public Policy UMass Dartmouth Co-Editor, MassBenchmarks Twitter:

Consumer balance sheets are much improved

Page 5: Michael D. Goodman, Ph.D. Executive Director, the Public Policy Center Associate Professor of Public Policy UMass Dartmouth Co-Editor, MassBenchmarks Twitter:

The budget deficit is back to normal

Page 6: Michael D. Goodman, Ph.D. Executive Director, the Public Policy Center Associate Professor of Public Policy UMass Dartmouth Co-Editor, MassBenchmarks Twitter:

The impact of “fiscal drag” is diminishing

Page 7: Michael D. Goodman, Ph.D. Executive Director, the Public Policy Center Associate Professor of Public Policy UMass Dartmouth Co-Editor, MassBenchmarks Twitter:

The nation and Massachusetts have finally recovered the jobs lost in the Great Recession

Page 8: Michael D. Goodman, Ph.D. Executive Director, the Public Policy Center Associate Professor of Public Policy UMass Dartmouth Co-Editor, MassBenchmarks Twitter:

Here in Massachusetts, the labor market recovery has been broad based…

Page 9: Michael D. Goodman, Ph.D. Executive Director, the Public Policy Center Associate Professor of Public Policy UMass Dartmouth Co-Editor, MassBenchmarks Twitter:

…and the state economy has grown moderately of late(MA expanded at a 3.2% annualized rate in Q3, 2014)

Page 10: Michael D. Goodman, Ph.D. Executive Director, the Public Policy Center Associate Professor of Public Policy UMass Dartmouth Co-Editor, MassBenchmarks Twitter:

On the other hand…

Page 11: Michael D. Goodman, Ph.D. Executive Director, the Public Policy Center Associate Professor of Public Policy UMass Dartmouth Co-Editor, MassBenchmarks Twitter:

In Massachusetts, in 2013, the annual average unemployment rate was:

•15.8 percent for workers under 25 years old.

•20.1 percent for those with less than a high school education.

The rising tide is not lifting all boats

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Current Population Survey

Page 12: Michael D. Goodman, Ph.D. Executive Director, the Public Policy Center Associate Professor of Public Policy UMass Dartmouth Co-Editor, MassBenchmarks Twitter:

The Global Economy is filled with risk

Page 13: Michael D. Goodman, Ph.D. Executive Director, the Public Policy Center Associate Professor of Public Policy UMass Dartmouth Co-Editor, MassBenchmarks Twitter:

Global trade has been slow since 2010

Page 14: Michael D. Goodman, Ph.D. Executive Director, the Public Policy Center Associate Professor of Public Policy UMass Dartmouth Co-Editor, MassBenchmarks Twitter:

The jobs recovery has been regionally imbalanced

Page 15: Michael D. Goodman, Ph.D. Executive Director, the Public Policy Center Associate Professor of Public Policy UMass Dartmouth Co-Editor, MassBenchmarks Twitter:

So has the housing recovery

Page 16: Michael D. Goodman, Ph.D. Executive Director, the Public Policy Center Associate Professor of Public Policy UMass Dartmouth Co-Editor, MassBenchmarks Twitter:

Residential development is increasingly concentrated in the dynamic Greater Boston region

Page 17: Michael D. Goodman, Ph.D. Executive Director, the Public Policy Center Associate Professor of Public Policy UMass Dartmouth Co-Editor, MassBenchmarks Twitter:

Housing production remains below historical averages and is being driven by multi-family developments

Page 18: Michael D. Goodman, Ph.D. Executive Director, the Public Policy Center Associate Professor of Public Policy UMass Dartmouth Co-Editor, MassBenchmarks Twitter:

Housing Production in Massachusetts is not adequate to meet housing demand

Source: L. Koshgarian, A. Clayton-Matthews, M. Goodman, and M. Johnson (2010) “Foundation for Growth: Housing and Employment in 2020” Massachusetts Housing Partnership

• Archaic state and local land use and zoning regulations make it very difficult for developers to respond to market demand.

• Statewide, Massachusetts would need to build an additional 29,926 units over expected production levels to meet demand.

Page 19: Michael D. Goodman, Ph.D. Executive Director, the Public Policy Center Associate Professor of Public Policy UMass Dartmouth Co-Editor, MassBenchmarks Twitter:

Weak household formation helps to explain slow development patterns…

Page 20: Michael D. Goodman, Ph.D. Executive Director, the Public Policy Center Associate Professor of Public Policy UMass Dartmouth Co-Editor, MassBenchmarks Twitter:

... and younger people remain either unwilling/unable to own their own home

Page 21: Michael D. Goodman, Ph.D. Executive Director, the Public Policy Center Associate Professor of Public Policy UMass Dartmouth Co-Editor, MassBenchmarks Twitter:

The state population is growing slowly and a large generational shift is well underway

Page 22: Michael D. Goodman, Ph.D. Executive Director, the Public Policy Center Associate Professor of Public Policy UMass Dartmouth Co-Editor, MassBenchmarks Twitter:

Michael D. Goodman, Ph.D.

Executive Director, the Public Policy CenterAssociate Professor of Public Policy

UMass Dartmouth

Co-Editor, MassBenchmarks

Twitter: @Mike_Goodman

November 19, 2014

The MA Economy in a Time of Transition: The State of the State

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